tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34660645433805513532024-03-17T21:03:27.729-06:00Ross' BlogRoss Janssenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09448734924733257676noreply@blogger.comBlogger1653125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3466064543380551353.post-34936131290104727362024-03-15T06:56:00.002-06:002024-03-15T06:56:31.771-06:00Severe weather thoughts - April rain comingThe season is here and after two EF2 tornadoes in northeast Kansas, our severe weather special comes at a good time while we are gearing up for the season. It will air Saturday night at 10:35 (KWCH), and then you can also catch it online.<div><br /></div><div>I was tasked with coming up with a severe weather outlook. These are really hard to do because if your house ends up getting hit, you'll remember the season as "bad". And then there's the question, what makes the season bad? Is it 50 tornadoes, 100, etc.? The average for Kansas in a season is around 80. Since 2000, here's are the years where the tornado count has been higher than average:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiT_GpoDGmNaK0ZieqrK-m5EyT0mpdGFHclvKA0AJTVUVxZ0EstFs0SwVNe9VMOXXXlo5qKtFQlGjZHPJrvru42gzFl3SJ2fOACb55JYR-ZZw1HNLpNi-4HR8T8xxDTHwx8OkRm4DOHj0uPTwIpO4gjF5Z62tDXtfGhUiZD4ClCsCZkBSE2IkWCPCKcmHYu/s1920/4.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiT_GpoDGmNaK0ZieqrK-m5EyT0mpdGFHclvKA0AJTVUVxZ0EstFs0SwVNe9VMOXXXlo5qKtFQlGjZHPJrvru42gzFl3SJ2fOACb55JYR-ZZw1HNLpNi-4HR8T8xxDTHwx8OkRm4DOHj0uPTwIpO4gjF5Z62tDXtfGhUiZD4ClCsCZkBSE2IkWCPCKcmHYu/w640-h360/4.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Out of the 14 years (since 2000), there are 4 years where El Nino was occurring in the Pacific. That was 2019, 2016, 2015, 2010. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Here's what we are in now:</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBw1B_muMBYNyTrHY7YWznXlY73ZQ3QBu8x3ShViOD9frlAf9qzaHropLQAfptZBgoR0MoskTvNwNEfvBE6NzFGpBOQmuanL4eadbDl_66rkCqDQJRLxL29-cOi5JfPwIJn0mkwTO3XZH6j9Pgld8bgfzekAonDBMix_QH3tEzSaHZkH_VdVaYZDvZYI1l/s1920/3.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBw1B_muMBYNyTrHY7YWznXlY73ZQ3QBu8x3ShViOD9frlAf9qzaHropLQAfptZBgoR0MoskTvNwNEfvBE6NzFGpBOQmuanL4eadbDl_66rkCqDQJRLxL29-cOi5JfPwIJn0mkwTO3XZH6j9Pgld8bgfzekAonDBMix_QH3tEzSaHZkH_VdVaYZDvZYI1l/w640-h360/3.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Notice the orange color within the highlighted box. That's water that is about 1.4°C above average, making this an El Nino spring season. But you also have to look just outside of that highlighted area and see the "cooler" water showing up - that's the oncoming La Nina that we will be talking about very soon (maybe as soon as this summer). If we take this one step further and consider the years where El Nino was going away and La Nina was coming on, here's what we find:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFozTWqPJ-J3VUnDgF1WFMSvOZoHCFngOfu3wwCiaxplcx7Px-xJEwsfogLq8or7pBIoR5xz7kTzNgoCBPR-ZZ7BUObgWUmitrr-bb1NrmZptrW6PUcGp8yZ45y_UlnaDImZIwEGwqFpZs12qgWFVlWW6SQellbTWnMghUQ5cNnrxPl6MOqFLjfx12UTb9/s1920/2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFozTWqPJ-J3VUnDgF1WFMSvOZoHCFngOfu3wwCiaxplcx7Px-xJEwsfogLq8or7pBIoR5xz7kTzNgoCBPR-ZZ7BUObgWUmitrr-bb1NrmZptrW6PUcGp8yZ45y_UlnaDImZIwEGwqFpZs12qgWFVlWW6SQellbTWnMghUQ5cNnrxPl6MOqFLjfx12UTb9/w640-h360/2.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>There is NOT necessarily a correlation to a high number of tornadoes when El Nino is going away and La Nina is coming on. The El Nino in 1998 was particularly strong, and it was quickly replaced with a La Nina, and that year ended up with slightly fewer than average tornadoes. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>El Nino has been a helpful driver of more rain/snow for the Plains this winter, but it hasn't completely eliminated the drought yet. Take a look at what El Nino springs have looked like in years past - <b>the purple is good</b> - it means above average moisture. Let's look at 2015, 2016, 2019:+</div><div><br /></div><div><b>May 2015:</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrT9pJSfNknsOol_WT8hWo42cfqz4jH-045CfHzFGPSTiCzfrGNWqLS0ybImdjd_NzNNehztzVbv1lFAE7KqK33QhtRPU551Dp7r-G13H-cPn4_A9Aqgpr4My0U7qfG2avB6jPhi7nlb0z-dPi0meWa5PPfK-gK12_wY_V5z6xi5nSxW59GXgY_kK9PPSR/s4000/8.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2250" data-original-width="4000" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrT9pJSfNknsOol_WT8hWo42cfqz4jH-045CfHzFGPSTiCzfrGNWqLS0ybImdjd_NzNNehztzVbv1lFAE7KqK33QhtRPU551Dp7r-G13H-cPn4_A9Aqgpr4My0U7qfG2avB6jPhi7nlb0z-dPi0meWa5PPfK-gK12_wY_V5z6xi5nSxW59GXgY_kK9PPSR/w640-h360/8.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>May 2016:</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgA0UanGMbXVDTTuHfDPndEfNNmCpAAc34OO3PKsylK8iCszFa4ahfz0IMLMIDwRi7U5oOTr86Zokf43EG5WUkYcpXRFiFeLc17r927uCX63u8PADUzNRIuNCLupQr5UsC3nZ5aqicln-ulTouS9vEm7vRSPES0c87oOeNRBaB5v0EBINU4aA-V0DwlRRr/s4000/1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2250" data-original-width="4000" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgA0UanGMbXVDTTuHfDPndEfNNmCpAAc34OO3PKsylK8iCszFa4ahfz0IMLMIDwRi7U5oOTr86Zokf43EG5WUkYcpXRFiFeLc17r927uCX63u8PADUzNRIuNCLupQr5UsC3nZ5aqicln-ulTouS9vEm7vRSPES0c87oOeNRBaB5v0EBINU4aA-V0DwlRRr/w640-h360/1.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>May 2019:</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjomOwuVr1MFSi0deEgbegrcjtKGxwySfhKv3c1alJ7wq0sIF6WKi4TQ3h178khROusY_NGCNvPg8KAvSLTIw-KAU6mZSyehSw5zj07i5IwKV7CjPvqKXYBeiDasReA76QJVib6G8q-2LQAu7tYQAMuhFRH7wnhgog-xkOvjxIC35qGICZ0nNt_A9uK8Gaf/s4000/5.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2250" data-original-width="4000" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjomOwuVr1MFSi0deEgbegrcjtKGxwySfhKv3c1alJ7wq0sIF6WKi4TQ3h178khROusY_NGCNvPg8KAvSLTIw-KAU6mZSyehSw5zj07i5IwKV7CjPvqKXYBeiDasReA76QJVib6G8q-2LQAu7tYQAMuhFRH7wnhgog-xkOvjxIC35qGICZ0nNt_A9uK8Gaf/w640-h360/5.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div>I'm not saying it's a guarantee, but there are many more cases of "wet" springs with El Nino than dry ones, so I think odds are in our favor that this upcoming spring will be at least average moisture, but for many areas, it should be wetter than average. See the early April rainfall outlook at the end of this post.</div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWP3GgqF3kVlRWIWqis4LHPEeiKshTPPh3MlKqsyHy5PYxM-PPEOinSIro0_a6vKf2wtbOBIuKzU584zBmeU_HVE0eMjXWaI7GBCbDOKzz_LrEbgYZINitjJFyGZL2ck4DxXvKlMkRywffyLjKdMwnIun4dEl7GAaZDp4OzO5jl68M8w_ZEUCT_nlVYSmC/s1920/AC%20%204.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWP3GgqF3kVlRWIWqis4LHPEeiKshTPPh3MlKqsyHy5PYxM-PPEOinSIro0_a6vKf2wtbOBIuKzU584zBmeU_HVE0eMjXWaI7GBCbDOKzz_LrEbgYZINitjJFyGZL2ck4DxXvKlMkRywffyLjKdMwnIun4dEl7GAaZDp4OzO5jl68M8w_ZEUCT_nlVYSmC/w640-h360/AC%20%204.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div><b>Rain is coming!!</b></div><div>The 3rd full week of March (18-22) doesn't look that promising, but once we get beyond that timeframe, odds look better for moisture. Here's a 30 day preview of March 24-April 24:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieIgoBjei4EhBF0mVt1AqBFur5zWPuo7eKaojNoyzX0FlkYN3aDvho_Zt9u78ORI8rI_gg1XaooUuhhehPEq1fEjJJRHZoCcK2X6MRrVHgXLhlO6b3KOLaM4QzrenNlp9Fw6Y8gC1lwONe7EU9eIUSCwmHyIllui9M9UWsEvfK5N6o3U23KF9g-X2ZVClQ/s965/1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="679" data-original-width="965" height="450" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieIgoBjei4EhBF0mVt1AqBFur5zWPuo7eKaojNoyzX0FlkYN3aDvho_Zt9u78ORI8rI_gg1XaooUuhhehPEq1fEjJJRHZoCcK2X6MRrVHgXLhlO6b3KOLaM4QzrenNlp9Fw6Y8gC1lwONe7EU9eIUSCwmHyIllui9M9UWsEvfK5N6o3U23KF9g-X2ZVClQ/w640-h450/1.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>And for the entire month of April, one set of model data looks like this:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAeLMNRvDM3p0U-2XGscIHhCcw3IUXPuuHuWrhY0jRNKRCzEOSME6oW1h2U-9A1Y1GJU8eAuHF7acwFQ4EQWLv2v6VK05jFBa0Izla1x9NY8B2FgPBfz6kswMMH0c61jqhcwt4te7iOkjT41YCeTNwAwPcoc-7E17lgn_Mjj3FE4H_3R70hNh6ExkobVxi/s967/Capture%201.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="688" data-original-width="967" height="456" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAeLMNRvDM3p0U-2XGscIHhCcw3IUXPuuHuWrhY0jRNKRCzEOSME6oW1h2U-9A1Y1GJU8eAuHF7acwFQ4EQWLv2v6VK05jFBa0Izla1x9NY8B2FgPBfz6kswMMH0c61jqhcwt4te7iOkjT41YCeTNwAwPcoc-7E17lgn_Mjj3FE4H_3R70hNh6ExkobVxi/w640-h456/Capture%201.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>I know it's just one model, but we've been expecting a turn toward some wetter conditions for the central US, and I believe we are just getting there. What should be a continual march of low pressure systems in from the West should begin soon and continue deep into April. Will this be the uptick in severe weather? Stay tuned.</div>Ross Janssenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09448734924733257676noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3466064543380551353.post-13655946472566456532024-03-08T08:06:00.001-06:002024-03-08T08:06:17.776-06:00A mix of more active and dry weather ahead<p>We will have another chance of some active weather coming at the end of our second week of March, but that might be short lived before it dries out again. </p><p>The first drought map out in March looks like this (remember it doesn't take into account rain from the recent system). Sadly, we are moving in the wrong direction. We are back up to 59% in drought - which is up from 52% the previous week.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmldjfI3gSl_2ul9fczDMP3-PEqB4Kca-2TftBwoUSi7asbTbAJA5BMXnh-NjFl_zYqHFuZUb69zIX75clzU75hX-Xkp_Ren_3S2oAGG_K-9c3J7ZJ1jK1BJ_IGRLs1ZqVUM1MOBsx8iClh7yltsf32Ikggu00HOsvS1pkV7SpO-jqr6Cd9JvGjdd4QQ-s/s1920/OTT1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmldjfI3gSl_2ul9fczDMP3-PEqB4Kca-2TftBwoUSi7asbTbAJA5BMXnh-NjFl_zYqHFuZUb69zIX75clzU75hX-Xkp_Ren_3S2oAGG_K-9c3J7ZJ1jK1BJ_IGRLs1ZqVUM1MOBsx8iClh7yltsf32Ikggu00HOsvS1pkV7SpO-jqr6Cd9JvGjdd4QQ-s/w640-h360/OTT1.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>The big system shaping up around March 14/15 will be slow moving, and if we can get this to position in just the right place, it might mean more beneficial rain. The upper low will try to separate from the main flow of air aloft, and if it succeeds in doing that, it will wobble around for many days. That's something to watch for just days from now. As of this writing, the low will form and stall somewhere near the 4 Corners area - that's not a bad spot for it to be, but if it ends up farther west, we are in trouble.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4sROb9pUvLnAv5W3WRBSUFz0qeDC41xzCd9f9YOsaWeiujyAk97hVLmFXI2vJXLJNfwQRaIwjdTHbmSlF9t_L8xdkbU6pAvZrJnFY5H4wy54V-kQ5wWHGxvoZ-H1S5cOj88z9SfYXTOcVuBuY2DxuQEDl4_UZ6fRu_6DoArUh9juA5NFEHxNl8kIlWb6K/s1920/CW5.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4sROb9pUvLnAv5W3WRBSUFz0qeDC41xzCd9f9YOsaWeiujyAk97hVLmFXI2vJXLJNfwQRaIwjdTHbmSlF9t_L8xdkbU6pAvZrJnFY5H4wy54V-kQ5wWHGxvoZ-H1S5cOj88z9SfYXTOcVuBuY2DxuQEDl4_UZ6fRu_6DoArUh9juA5NFEHxNl8kIlWb6K/w640-h360/CW5.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>This is a complex scenario because the rain could split and go around Kansas. I just think we should keep expectations low at this stage because a front may shove the higher humidity east of Kansas, and we'd be left with a whole bunch of nothing. We need to see where the upper low will establish itself.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb0Q6W9OVsh77IKmxo4BI382Rr9Qqxo37KdkpaV7-YHqcNUKemAu5p6gz2UYJ6Y7er6-BVfQ3Lxqhn2dfvsZNpbNiEHi3FuwqauC9urdvxWNUnMHXX28uNhachWSeBBoSYoBrl05pyFf7G8KdHoGhH__nlY0-9fPMFIe1yjmCIml-W79EyIsZ6tP-KOlAw/s1920/4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb0Q6W9OVsh77IKmxo4BI382Rr9Qqxo37KdkpaV7-YHqcNUKemAu5p6gz2UYJ6Y7er6-BVfQ3Lxqhn2dfvsZNpbNiEHi3FuwqauC9urdvxWNUnMHXX28uNhachWSeBBoSYoBrl05pyFf7G8KdHoGhH__nlY0-9fPMFIe1yjmCIml-W79EyIsZ6tP-KOlAw/w640-h360/4.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /><p><b>Rainfall compared to average - Ending March 20:</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEim6G_xjcGbRmhgxoZ2WDhsg8_ZQs8G6UpVl0iHJw2M4wW0RGMxYvV5YToidwewhedA4U93gRZC16YB_puAKDAOyfLUB7nq3Oa1gXraSeba8lXHxjgeQvOJXzSTSCOfHRbKduXWLXIVRCwiVdy5-AupG6ZB_1vbLwz0F8o0daBbmQCO6OthmZP_tkhHjGEN/s955/5.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="685" data-original-width="955" height="460" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEim6G_xjcGbRmhgxoZ2WDhsg8_ZQs8G6UpVl0iHJw2M4wW0RGMxYvV5YToidwewhedA4U93gRZC16YB_puAKDAOyfLUB7nq3Oa1gXraSeba8lXHxjgeQvOJXzSTSCOfHRbKduXWLXIVRCwiVdy5-AupG6ZB_1vbLwz0F8o0daBbmQCO6OthmZP_tkhHjGEN/w640-h460/5.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>We may hit a drier spell in the 3rd full week of the month, but I wouldn't let this be too alarming considering everything I've look at suggests more moisture should find its way back to the region late in the month.<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzDX1oVyY_Gk4Z7hlNNj6UJegribYWekjnV_nSPkyRwHjh0w9QqfkyyQO8GQ0zgNnA9C8RmYPmh9FjGoCtqCjyhG8OJEEBGPTjQSH8TWwlms1h5pfNjTEA3HItFC82YPhK5CaiiLvTBSpQfX1aOCbf94T1GV9sCV6bSKDhwdti3cZYymnwuAlv2FpGS7zg/s942/6.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="683" data-original-width="942" height="464" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzDX1oVyY_Gk4Z7hlNNj6UJegribYWekjnV_nSPkyRwHjh0w9QqfkyyQO8GQ0zgNnA9C8RmYPmh9FjGoCtqCjyhG8OJEEBGPTjQSH8TWwlms1h5pfNjTEA3HItFC82YPhK5CaiiLvTBSpQfX1aOCbf94T1GV9sCV6bSKDhwdti3cZYymnwuAlv2FpGS7zg/w640-h464/6.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><b>Early April Rainfall:</b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRh4pS1HopR2BcKbSWjTOphZS6u4-j9oda5PHAGubMWKYQrB2d0cSARD3UGRu-fCeVYi7nUQSQCpKEg8CShgcikuusoBB5KpMWeGTHBwovmpYket_kDt4J2rcGp1YwCcc7m4zxCr1KvOCH7x5rc2y67J1CHEIBBWv8prKaJKQWTG0H8u6CIl0Jn0OnbHYZ/s945/3.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="683" data-original-width="945" height="462" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRh4pS1HopR2BcKbSWjTOphZS6u4-j9oda5PHAGubMWKYQrB2d0cSARD3UGRu-fCeVYi7nUQSQCpKEg8CShgcikuusoBB5KpMWeGTHBwovmpYket_kDt4J2rcGp1YwCcc7m4zxCr1KvOCH7x5rc2y67J1CHEIBBWv8prKaJKQWTG0H8u6CIl0Jn0OnbHYZ/w640-h462/3.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><b>Temperatures:</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7z5a3NCva_KBTgnr0QPrfJoBTTaXWawTLA9Yb7_OEj-VgdLn53jzCzab4oUJl_1kD1lOGJBxSazXqIWJlcwc_tCu9E4UIfLCd7KVMZeD_Bm-BN7revuOYeBeFv1kOf2HBFWHIMaqDUKAdOq1UahNp3RstKSf06KJy86WhDOvco1QL_60rt-7OmEyMry2D/s956/4.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="685" data-original-width="956" height="458" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7z5a3NCva_KBTgnr0QPrfJoBTTaXWawTLA9Yb7_OEj-VgdLn53jzCzab4oUJl_1kD1lOGJBxSazXqIWJlcwc_tCu9E4UIfLCd7KVMZeD_Bm-BN7revuOYeBeFv1kOf2HBFWHIMaqDUKAdOq1UahNp3RstKSf06KJy86WhDOvco1QL_60rt-7OmEyMry2D/w640-h458/4.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIwDTYdslOZvuOkkRi_E_mR7QIJ1pmHGb-fkNPSdjzE7hbLUx7qaGMQtQ4dwzHIvnbAMsi5eHOTtLAysEu3vh7-28HOSqo4mKhozJR5ZVVFxzwEJXJ5c9Upaz9t98Qg2XrxgpzII0dY0dqti2Ow1eT0j_2FZeLh_svME-fbQm2CtNTv4KvZVmPBveGp88S/s945/AC%20%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="668" data-original-width="945" height="452" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIwDTYdslOZvuOkkRi_E_mR7QIJ1pmHGb-fkNPSdjzE7hbLUx7qaGMQtQ4dwzHIvnbAMsi5eHOTtLAysEu3vh7-28HOSqo4mKhozJR5ZVVFxzwEJXJ5c9Upaz9t98Qg2XrxgpzII0dY0dqti2Ow1eT0j_2FZeLh_svME-fbQm2CtNTv4KvZVmPBveGp88S/w640-h452/AC%20%201.png" width="640" /></a></div><b><br /></b><p></p><p>Two different models into late March bring chillier weather back. It's too late in the season for Arctic air (you can breathe a sigh there), but if these maps hold up, I'd prepare for highs in the 40s and low 50s. That's not really earth-shattering, but it might not be what you were hoping for as we know spring begins on March 19th.<br /><b><br /></b></p><p><b>Tornado update - as of March 8:</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzUQAYwMc0El7lnAfFOa-5qse79NTHDeV-sC3W0ESlT1TmG8hBO5ojNMDf9gPkSdG-6Llto_3TPVnM7zrmnVcV2ZI4EMHQxEKPDs-lwjNU1mb8HTwHK7OH-8jtk0PPrPxdwHYmAYHwJ4ISg3d9QZSRAHeab1B4ZjkwYk61x0hoQzAuCUX8K-CfrulMZSGn/s1345/2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="902" data-original-width="1345" height="430" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzUQAYwMc0El7lnAfFOa-5qse79NTHDeV-sC3W0ESlT1TmG8hBO5ojNMDf9gPkSdG-6Llto_3TPVnM7zrmnVcV2ZI4EMHQxEKPDs-lwjNU1mb8HTwHK7OH-8jtk0PPrPxdwHYmAYHwJ4ISg3d9QZSRAHeab1B4ZjkwYk61x0hoQzAuCUX8K-CfrulMZSGn/w640-h430/2.png" width="640" /></a></div><b><br /></b><p></p><p>We've had some encounters with brief severe weather in Kansas. As Severe Weather Awareness Week ends, here's a look at the US tornado count compared to "average" and recent years. There's nothing alarming in what we see right now. The current count is the red line and black is normal or average. There's no way to draw conclusions from what we've seen so far to what's next, but we are putting together our severe weather special that airs Saturday, March 16th at 10:35PM. We will try to unlock a few clues as to what we think the upcoming season has in store for the Plains. </p></div>Ross Janssenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09448734924733257676noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3466064543380551353.post-89423371027029813272024-02-29T08:04:00.006-06:002024-02-29T08:04:47.849-06:00Meteorological winter ends, but March is just getting started<div>Before we get into discussing winter temperatures, I wanted to put up this image of the burn scar from Texas. On Tuesday, fires took off north of Amarillo and spread very quickly. What exacerbated the problem was the shift in winds as the cold front moved on through and gusts continued to be well above 40 mph. The area burned was larger than Rhode Island. See for yourself the image from more than 20,000 miles above the Earth. Our technology is quick to pick up on hot spots and assuming a clear sky, they can clearly show burn scars.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzT-ccM1hCgHqm6FNlyciO8LsZHrYgetQfRdVbuXISRQ_jbItHoWAJYslR4UHXXK5BZdIhNUT3C_Ty9DmbnAb4bmciUeU4la3Aw2KX7Owhwyoq8Eg5gLYNEWgcop6xnQxk1VsTJkMs6lJrLm4lm13Hi2z1e94Nu1q2fRqSKOmkwloKkkHjRsrbk5a-Xvy1/s1477/5.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="785" data-original-width="1477" height="340" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzT-ccM1hCgHqm6FNlyciO8LsZHrYgetQfRdVbuXISRQ_jbItHoWAJYslR4UHXXK5BZdIhNUT3C_Ty9DmbnAb4bmciUeU4la3Aw2KX7Owhwyoq8Eg5gLYNEWgcop6xnQxk1VsTJkMs6lJrLm4lm13Hi2z1e94Nu1q2fRqSKOmkwloKkkHjRsrbk5a-Xvy1/w640-h340/5.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Sadly, there's more extreme fire danger ahead and we hope everyone will do their part.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Winter (at least from one standpoint) ends</b></div>The end of February is the end of meteorological winter, but if you've been keeping up with the blog, I don't think winter is completely done with us just yet. More about that in a second. Despite the big cold snap in mid-January, it wasn't nearly enough to overcome a top 10 warmest December and now, a top 10 warmest February. <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNenf8vAmtoOncO0mjBu1t10U27UoSivyfryz_KW3iBFxc6qOzNfeRXS4RM4p6EuLy6A1dMejsvkh-rjRaPOdGU7qxdNN69LO-nOHgpL1Za8Ll35Z3rll-l-262llniImd67pGYzjJjQQop0zcOJDc-DYaW_g7rq1Mr4jw2XRVEm7oZ2cn40BZ5ZSwmOpc/s1920/2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNenf8vAmtoOncO0mjBu1t10U27UoSivyfryz_KW3iBFxc6qOzNfeRXS4RM4p6EuLy6A1dMejsvkh-rjRaPOdGU7qxdNN69LO-nOHgpL1Za8Ll35Z3rll-l-262llniImd67pGYzjJjQQop0zcOJDc-DYaW_g7rq1Mr4jw2XRVEm7oZ2cn40BZ5ZSwmOpc/w640-h360/2.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><div><br /></div><div>Here's how the three months combined look (it doesn't have Feb. 29th factored in just yet):</div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh80Knwv_AnMwM7G5dodEy53C3H7hcgDfwAB2NHp_K6N8v_tVhYNEBQc2sPU7ODYdJhsSnbBFQPegfYRZSz_pW-E-zn_GzphbXwkt4jhdGxRkIbufjvxm-E7g1UaxkBHpW_EbTbrVfZoU8jLolb86qO5NpdCdicvtVt3HvLMymYRDXtRx6pMjaESFUQP9yL/s1920/1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh80Knwv_AnMwM7G5dodEy53C3H7hcgDfwAB2NHp_K6N8v_tVhYNEBQc2sPU7ODYdJhsSnbBFQPegfYRZSz_pW-E-zn_GzphbXwkt4jhdGxRkIbufjvxm-E7g1UaxkBHpW_EbTbrVfZoU8jLolb86qO5NpdCdicvtVt3HvLMymYRDXtRx6pMjaESFUQP9yL/w640-h360/1.png" width="640" /></a></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b>March "normals" look like this:</b></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsCEigmqoy9sZ4WarRNq5y-dAjSaQ1B3aCCQdWNtbYockMEmjH6P8xdeKMXX-0omK4v42qmKvMcWcdCjxpcH4aYtQGXuaQZjRE3Axmn1vWa8aZqZF573KtM_g_RA0jyNYjB4B52f5xmwryRdAYWRIQ8Chz0OQoUUXovKxwSciDVOj9EWGQg23jBPARX1VZ/s1920/WEB%202.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsCEigmqoy9sZ4WarRNq5y-dAjSaQ1B3aCCQdWNtbYockMEmjH6P8xdeKMXX-0omK4v42qmKvMcWcdCjxpcH4aYtQGXuaQZjRE3Axmn1vWa8aZqZF573KtM_g_RA0jyNYjB4B52f5xmwryRdAYWRIQ8Chz0OQoUUXovKxwSciDVOj9EWGQg23jBPARX1VZ/w640-h360/WEB%202.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /></div><div>It's quite possible that March (as a whole) will be near or slightly cooler than average. Our forecast for February was a bust on the cold, but signs are once again pointing toward more cool/chilly weather ahead. </div><div>The first week of the month might be one of the warmest weeks we'll have. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgykpRtoATPHNbevmcTDPvPYRHAKvwfi6vCZKSXujFencSErVg9itlKjEhqkmjtRidoAT7F4-d7rmqYLYSgG3Q6YoUjfHe0IWow7Z7pNJfMEy0BD2OB9ygzPlzShB750C4WxzUH_XSQ58aMmQLJAKR1d_OWCtuNTlO-i_jKdW4IRGsRLlVq6VJ349A7uF67/s950/6.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="680" data-original-width="950" height="458" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgykpRtoATPHNbevmcTDPvPYRHAKvwfi6vCZKSXujFencSErVg9itlKjEhqkmjtRidoAT7F4-d7rmqYLYSgG3Q6YoUjfHe0IWow7Z7pNJfMEy0BD2OB9ygzPlzShB750C4WxzUH_XSQ58aMmQLJAKR1d_OWCtuNTlO-i_jKdW4IRGsRLlVq6VJ349A7uF67/w640-h458/6.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><b>Mid-February turns cooler - </b>we do have to remember that the averages are climbing as the month wears on and it appears unlikely for any Arctic air to return. However, highs in the 30s and even low 40s wouldn't be that much of a stretch. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhv1a_ftjhZExvwItwUI3MWhyc7E9VaSgK4XmrKUCYGbyKYgL0amxycG6QGXVtc4nrHkWtol_rYvsdZFn41UwqYoSd5KxJPIpvb5qGYizSkNjxPa6bYuHBoDSjUKfJrwocGAQdBN87wL7b2NVUj111i0Xktai2-OQp3SA54zrhNaBjHF4QZYi6u2yfAGjCj/s944/3.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="689" data-original-width="944" height="468" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhv1a_ftjhZExvwItwUI3MWhyc7E9VaSgK4XmrKUCYGbyKYgL0amxycG6QGXVtc4nrHkWtol_rYvsdZFn41UwqYoSd5KxJPIpvb5qGYizSkNjxPa6bYuHBoDSjUKfJrwocGAQdBN87wL7b2NVUj111i0Xktai2-OQp3SA54zrhNaBjHF4QZYi6u2yfAGjCj/w640-h468/3.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Late February continues to look cool too:</b></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixSYRZJB1S7XbQyiZJqfut3FpVhx3xBvaaku8AOI1YL4__sibIHyv9sKz29ffBA3fvEmi6nQH8vPB9cWnFF0Gp9JuaNZw7hpSsZqFCLA5cT_ga0XhDKAvzCoDHtqGrACQojtfC_KzG5nheIlTttiqk2Zg-ukpYwq0WiohA3tjUtdNo80PXx5wIrJ4sN9Ca/s965/4.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="679" data-original-width="965" height="450" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixSYRZJB1S7XbQyiZJqfut3FpVhx3xBvaaku8AOI1YL4__sibIHyv9sKz29ffBA3fvEmi6nQH8vPB9cWnFF0Gp9JuaNZw7hpSsZqFCLA5cT_ga0XhDKAvzCoDHtqGrACQojtfC_KzG5nheIlTttiqk2Zg-ukpYwq0WiohA3tjUtdNo80PXx5wIrJ4sN9Ca/w640-h450/4.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /></div><div><b>Rain will be back!!</b> I have talked with some farmers in the last few weeks that are quick to remind me that even though drought conditions have improved, farm ponds are still quite low in many areas. The same thing can be said for area lakes too. I fully expect that the jet stream will remain active with a series of systems continuing off the West coast. This is moving into our wet season (April - June), and the more rain we can get now, the better suited we'll be for summer.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>First full week of March:</b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo8INHCLKcIIbOwrOMgnWnIKq7iLSdllObcmDKR4TkjTDY_dbEfVU_f6giLzS9qL8ozApnAQsJf9tmywHQ9kY9KmM-lKO965WMq8MOe6MPk0Hjg6D_Y4JC7LqRrhRgPNgOwivIvq6oJtbpq3D61jHCRtq5w5sG7vVP0FxpfiK33WG0WVRYAut63XFVerp1/s944/1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="669" data-original-width="944" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo8INHCLKcIIbOwrOMgnWnIKq7iLSdllObcmDKR4TkjTDY_dbEfVU_f6giLzS9qL8ozApnAQsJf9tmywHQ9kY9KmM-lKO965WMq8MOe6MPk0Hjg6D_Y4JC7LqRrhRgPNgOwivIvq6oJtbpq3D61jHCRtq5w5sG7vVP0FxpfiK33WG0WVRYAut63XFVerp1/w640-h454/1.png" width="640" /></a></div><b><br /></b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Second full week of March:</b></div><div>An active jet coming out of the west should continue to provide opportunities through much of the month. Will we have a big blizzard? Will there be an early introduction to severe weather season? March can have it all, but what we do see is a shift toward wetter weather. Here's what we have for the end of our first week in March:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJofE1oNdtCk6EkC944POQufjg78c3eBA3n5oS_4i9h5gY35QSYInzEptYr4HTyKgNO73kOa3aqLYiiENe0Ju-hNMc13tt4UlihvBh1l4_DopOXoXB9SXwxinLPonFcMIvUurdpguvsFAHwLzDH6sKxWOZEZWSzpFEby11PspVrB5B21tAW3ay8KwKfFFF/s1920/4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJofE1oNdtCk6EkC944POQufjg78c3eBA3n5oS_4i9h5gY35QSYInzEptYr4HTyKgNO73kOa3aqLYiiENe0Ju-hNMc13tt4UlihvBh1l4_DopOXoXB9SXwxinLPonFcMIvUurdpguvsFAHwLzDH6sKxWOZEZWSzpFEby11PspVrB5B21tAW3ay8KwKfFFF/w640-h360/4.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5_zBv4aTQ1KA63Clwae-x0O9lLt9E4BAMfv_i_871JBfS1BvSBEA1Xq7_n5D9t7dtGpbkrFF8sitD_Bn2mFpPgkGkWzjRAvTULb0ro9-XC__kWrYHFWYCk7QCoD7bvRbkJMedZz-YNJYGZJRMehbR8hzITD6yDhMGmChl5h06jeZNV6c7wNs74Qiisu_F/s952/Capture%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="681" data-original-width="952" height="458" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5_zBv4aTQ1KA63Clwae-x0O9lLt9E4BAMfv_i_871JBfS1BvSBEA1Xq7_n5D9t7dtGpbkrFF8sitD_Bn2mFpPgkGkWzjRAvTULb0ro9-XC__kWrYHFWYCk7QCoD7bvRbkJMedZz-YNJYGZJRMehbR8hzITD6yDhMGmChl5h06jeZNV6c7wNs74Qiisu_F/w640-h458/Capture%201.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Have a great day!</div>Ross Janssenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09448734924733257676noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3466064543380551353.post-56384759939228754172024-02-22T07:45:00.000-06:002024-02-22T07:45:00.230-06:00Winter isn't finished with us yet<p>February 2024 will be remembered for the incredible warmth that we had throughout the Plains states. Back in our early month forecast, we thought after Valentine's Day it would turn colder, and it did, but only for two days and then it was replaced by spring. Just days left and here's where the month is tracking in terms of warmest ones on record:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhv66rWQkWodT43eEJFD73ZmsoeI3pvoIkgl2ewezCpVpWHCTr0U_J2sa2DhK6vqC_ShvKqwql2miHOBMCvjwC1A6GLNFoegAeuRDF6eG2ipOV1cRidlVxjere9gJh9_kmGrD9A4tf9DOZTQgpQQ92KdoFgjoETM4Ef86N-AtDz-DCmyixJpnd55RHiiRPh/s1920/Capture%209.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="362" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhv66rWQkWodT43eEJFD73ZmsoeI3pvoIkgl2ewezCpVpWHCTr0U_J2sa2DhK6vqC_ShvKqwql2miHOBMCvjwC1A6GLNFoegAeuRDF6eG2ipOV1cRidlVxjere9gJh9_kmGrD9A4tf9DOZTQgpQQ92KdoFgjoETM4Ef86N-AtDz-DCmyixJpnd55RHiiRPh/w640-h362/Capture%209.png" width="640" /></a></div><p><b>Record highs will be threatened for Monday/Tuesday (Feb. 26-27). </b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKMI_gIWUVydeuj_4elQ7J2iz5a1tpz4sl3N_e7Bf0bJP7GiIANsOaQHYdrcFhzuJUOuaX-THDAGCDZ6JYe_xKsUW1e5XSSnNf8zpgAGNKdDaNh0cd0JyLo64yMbVA1DnqhK0YdyxI29nqWyb5NJlNoseNO1sMqbGyIwUTfoNzcH4Ejxauqai3cuVepsk0/s1920/Capture%202.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKMI_gIWUVydeuj_4elQ7J2iz5a1tpz4sl3N_e7Bf0bJP7GiIANsOaQHYdrcFhzuJUOuaX-THDAGCDZ6JYe_xKsUW1e5XSSnNf8zpgAGNKdDaNh0cd0JyLo64yMbVA1DnqhK0YdyxI29nqWyb5NJlNoseNO1sMqbGyIwUTfoNzcH4Ejxauqai3cuVepsk0/w640-h360/Capture%202.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>How in the world does it get this warm in February? It's a combination of a large, high pressure ridge (see image below) - that's where the jet stream winds bend toward the north. Underneath, the air sinks and warms. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiN3RxCHAqdWzWGAon3jOGgY1qPwLiqGPkvnJbt-CDrpl87bELp5qeb_utv4r9w-uf-ODAIQOndft5O0Cokuvu2H0ScZOMjHNUTJIifvg4N2iSEl2q36SPiX-Ys4GsrytroWqI68i4G77mVo0tlqGJyaEj4hKAlSSg1ZKfPPIQLw-Ouzuq_h24hJXC34TFV/s1920/Capture%204.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiN3RxCHAqdWzWGAon3jOGgY1qPwLiqGPkvnJbt-CDrpl87bELp5qeb_utv4r9w-uf-ODAIQOndft5O0Cokuvu2H0ScZOMjHNUTJIifvg4N2iSEl2q36SPiX-Ys4GsrytroWqI68i4G77mVo0tlqGJyaEj4hKAlSSg1ZKfPPIQLw-Ouzuq_h24hJXC34TFV/w640-h360/Capture%204.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>You also have a west/southwest wind near the ground that is dry, and it warms quickly as it descends in elevation.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjB5Vt_cIOln0tpG7Y2nvFZ7cENbgbjnsefHa91sDPBnI4YOpYXbrezrY1CLFbYojnB4Z1Uty7LhbMtth83D6Pu37MnErxVN5ILmcwiQvRmm_ZhgFQ7Uiuo0_RyzT8n-XMZGt7TOioAWbWee3hPc1XzRKHMChm937p-4wdHNDUnWMchPdYnJ7VUFPFJ8Vo/s1920/CW5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjB5Vt_cIOln0tpG7Y2nvFZ7cENbgbjnsefHa91sDPBnI4YOpYXbrezrY1CLFbYojnB4Z1Uty7LhbMtth83D6Pu37MnErxVN5ILmcwiQvRmm_ZhgFQ7Uiuo0_RyzT8n-XMZGt7TOioAWbWee3hPc1XzRKHMChm937p-4wdHNDUnWMchPdYnJ7VUFPFJ8Vo/w640-h360/CW5.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><b>Winter isn't over, even though the worst is behind us:</b></p><p>Compare the following maps. The end of February and the first few days in March continue to look unusually warm. It just fits in with how things have been going all month long:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUSWXnsfaDQVmjaTgWl5ak14KKLnHk0Qvmc4uOogtYWmZffuikvqwoVq7QttN0cMcZG7DCoDiHd635-PGn_WZ_xzQPlRAV6s-mQqEV3j9-q8Xt91PuNvG1atR4gH0lfEsSjhHHleeAVAkQMNKfmlDx7rWMEC8ecAvzD6O-AOKD0MbMgAt6CrKzkhojiYDw/s961/6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="692" data-original-width="961" height="460" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUSWXnsfaDQVmjaTgWl5ak14KKLnHk0Qvmc4uOogtYWmZffuikvqwoVq7QttN0cMcZG7DCoDiHd635-PGn_WZ_xzQPlRAV6s-mQqEV3j9-q8Xt91PuNvG1atR4gH0lfEsSjhHHleeAVAkQMNKfmlDx7rWMEC8ecAvzD6O-AOKD0MbMgAt6CrKzkhojiYDw/w640-h460/6.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>As we go into the first full week of March, the warmth begins to relax as some colder air begins sliding eastward. I believe this is a result of more active weather coming through the Plains. More clouds, more precipitation, etc. should result in more days with highs in the 30s and 40s - not necessarily Arctic air.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEih9HLCHgJYyacJ6GS04Q1pz8iSNYigvG5RMB-kNW6DbqSJ7L5Z2OWvZ3ynO1OdwrxcdeJzO1MBThnwk8QsENdrXPLdwqWrsilPNDs-5QuRDM2h3Z3OloJu1rTRNm3QgWx-9vR4HXRUO0TyPE8ZtzLdNWXQKYgLdcDXWjRC5763eS5GVrr93aKhmLw67F3y/s961/5.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="684" data-original-width="961" height="456" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEih9HLCHgJYyacJ6GS04Q1pz8iSNYigvG5RMB-kNW6DbqSJ7L5Z2OWvZ3ynO1OdwrxcdeJzO1MBThnwk8QsENdrXPLdwqWrsilPNDs-5QuRDM2h3Z3OloJu1rTRNm3QgWx-9vR4HXRUO0TyPE8ZtzLdNWXQKYgLdcDXWjRC5763eS5GVrr93aKhmLw67F3y/w640-h456/5.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>And finally as we pass into the second half of March and approach the official start of spring, more cooler than average weather showing up.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjasjeYl1M2pSKR_ZMtXwLuBIcXTb9kXk3TfOznqJs6cr191gwmCJpoqts9cpdsQV56Y0FUThMcuGDkrpxKfON4gY9GenOFJjev6P69uCq5wa4imhIjx3oJXAaTXgmkrFTxY-nEhGDKOrNr-81qEGf3Kfnkxf7iADs6MuXe5dNGR99GvGJ-ULWkOP9KgOxC/s972/3.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="688" data-original-width="972" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjasjeYl1M2pSKR_ZMtXwLuBIcXTb9kXk3TfOznqJs6cr191gwmCJpoqts9cpdsQV56Y0FUThMcuGDkrpxKfON4gY9GenOFJjev6P69uCq5wa4imhIjx3oJXAaTXgmkrFTxY-nEhGDKOrNr-81qEGf3Kfnkxf7iADs6MuXe5dNGR99GvGJ-ULWkOP9KgOxC/w640-h454/3.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>And March (as a whole) for precipitation looks wetter than average, which seems to make sense with the ongoing El Nino. I'm wondering if the wet/active weather we had in January is about to repeat in the upcoming 30-40 days. Seems fitting because most Kansans know that March can get a little wild with all kinds of different weather from beginning to end. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuPuuh8w139xhaFGBRkWY8u5zvObsv4s7lf0Seq2T1ZL8v9C3KA3Lx-aFxIGAcP3hI5TDOZz5t5vUEF2-xO3pOXWsHmfB_ipyg9lXdrdNf4xSdLU5IYQLlGahLtn152vrKjEmWfvNEPcOF5sX2XJhCK2Wt-06psaasrE8yRZ6o-d7MoZGDaZWcpGWoh3u0/s965/4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="679" data-original-width="965" height="450" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuPuuh8w139xhaFGBRkWY8u5zvObsv4s7lf0Seq2T1ZL8v9C3KA3Lx-aFxIGAcP3hI5TDOZz5t5vUEF2-xO3pOXWsHmfB_ipyg9lXdrdNf4xSdLU5IYQLlGahLtn152vrKjEmWfvNEPcOF5sX2XJhCK2Wt-06psaasrE8yRZ6o-d7MoZGDaZWcpGWoh3u0/w640-h450/4.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>Thanks for reading!</p>Ross Janssenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09448734924733257676noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3466064543380551353.post-36439395271406314392024-02-15T07:53:00.003-06:002024-02-15T07:53:12.647-06:00La Nina Watchout!<p>Effort to erase drought have been ongoing since last summer (which started in western Kansas), and then the rest of us started getting some beneficial moisture in fall and throughout the winter. If you've been following along, we've contributed this mostly to the stronger El Nino that showed up last summer. Now, we are faced with an oncoming La Nina.</p><p>First, here's what the water temperatures look like in that critical area that is monitored for El Nino/La Nina:</p><p>Water temperatures are 1.7°C above the average, so we are still in the El Nino influence now, but water temperatures have started cooling.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRoRuDeiVDHNOZaUUsE-h2ff0vivJWNHEqj186u3V0eFgL9bLe9hMZiuBrhLTt0I0DO29XTu_p-ETLB-nM0-kZrs9Z3QDDbXVRg6jQQ578UO9UmCKtQDE-NGNsv7R0U0frJtJrZNYb7fNpbt4tFJRtuwiTiCxVAJdFDRrIUyh272T5hm-YvEMU70J1h3Fw/s1920/Capture%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRoRuDeiVDHNOZaUUsE-h2ff0vivJWNHEqj186u3V0eFgL9bLe9hMZiuBrhLTt0I0DO29XTu_p-ETLB-nM0-kZrs9Z3QDDbXVRg6jQQ578UO9UmCKtQDE-NGNsv7R0U0frJtJrZNYb7fNpbt4tFJRtuwiTiCxVAJdFDRrIUyh272T5hm-YvEMU70J1h3Fw/w640-h360/Capture%201.png" width="640" /></a></div><p><b>Just see for yourself how things were looking in late September 2023:</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaYrmgRm7gOzBKY_qZvNlY6b9DZSst4BBlpqNS5IHEIsgHAEhn3EL87N2rbUMrG4R975TjOodJzXQ5xbc7ExnF3aGmjZ_QnRCr-FYR_6MgBoBCdU-N_ZDOzK_bXQdzdyYgElIHHk41O_kRvjNk8MzkMntTlHGK9WZqRbkuxznSA18hhN3gBAkVk0nrTagf/s974/Capture%203.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="695" data-original-width="974" height="456" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaYrmgRm7gOzBKY_qZvNlY6b9DZSst4BBlpqNS5IHEIsgHAEhn3EL87N2rbUMrG4R975TjOodJzXQ5xbc7ExnF3aGmjZ_QnRCr-FYR_6MgBoBCdU-N_ZDOzK_bXQdzdyYgElIHHk41O_kRvjNk8MzkMntTlHGK9WZqRbkuxznSA18hhN3gBAkVk0nrTagf/w640-h456/Capture%203.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p><b>And now most recently, this:</b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKokCLlAlHm-JY3GEzCXwVVzGSPGwSbxMKZioPX-WreUmtIp9c_RwxV2NkLp_DbVTNRKYnnybNyjvgi8-qxJyYA3bdVHyubJCgdxGkr_tH6jc5iJDARsDKe9fIH0BKpRjvUeil56f3Ra9mjs6_tTh58NQE8evUAFpHm1oV0tCU4Uab6eSDKv40ZvVE-zNQ/s974/Capture%203.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="695" data-original-width="974" height="456" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKokCLlAlHm-JY3GEzCXwVVzGSPGwSbxMKZioPX-WreUmtIp9c_RwxV2NkLp_DbVTNRKYnnybNyjvgi8-qxJyYA3bdVHyubJCgdxGkr_tH6jc5iJDARsDKe9fIH0BKpRjvUeil56f3Ra9mjs6_tTh58NQE8evUAFpHm1oV0tCU4Uab6eSDKv40ZvVE-zNQ/w640-h456/Capture%203.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>How quickly will El Nino end and La Nina begin? It might be faster than we really want it to be, and you'd have good reason to be concerned for heat and drought in the summer season IF La Nina was going to be back before summer started. I'm not sure that will be the case. See the chart below, and take note of how the red bars drop off and the blue bars begin growing. That is suggesting the strong likelihood of an oncoming La Nina, which could be firmly in place heading into fall. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixwDDmuYOyCBzRxAgTS2r5c3Rs_lTwLs91_vSGjUI7n9w_KOsFCX2BgKnqyDogR7x6NbcyFryLMdUFfwTxsOHf5MGTWLQXe39ap8RJvZu5wkM5k6swhx4JbWamA5DvUaFImhGCVW50xMsXay6JTp7H29ypROJjBbINE3wLBDMdDzdUEJTx5s_eI_oKqIUi/s598/6.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="357" data-original-width="598" height="382" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixwDDmuYOyCBzRxAgTS2r5c3Rs_lTwLs91_vSGjUI7n9w_KOsFCX2BgKnqyDogR7x6NbcyFryLMdUFfwTxsOHf5MGTWLQXe39ap8RJvZu5wkM5k6swhx4JbWamA5DvUaFImhGCVW50xMsXay6JTp7H29ypROJjBbINE3wLBDMdDzdUEJTx5s_eI_oKqIUi/w640-h382/6.png" width="640" /></a></div><p><b>Quick look into March:</b></p><p>We've sorted missed the mark with our forecast of colder weather for mid-late February. Turns out, whatever cold weather was to be had was so brief that it wasn't even worth covering here. Lol. </p><p>But we've been thinking spring season would be a wetter than average one, and that still shows up in the longer range maps. And I'm still not convinced winter is behind us yet. Most Kansans know that March is the wild card month that can have it all. We'll come back and cover March a bit more in depth soon, but here's an early look at what we are seeing:</p><p><b>Temperature - </b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibS9Lg9upoUuIu99AGmXYsPjbZWJRI90NENwvaROVmsq_tYjbcin6n0w_CYPx-hv1j3DfvsUGDmXQ6y8WS3XSJZo7pIeTUQxW-Sursh0kiSbhzdfKqotlq0ZTTAB3nYtL6JXV9PXUXRspNy6A5lt8rQFbt1_Ej38vsxsyleXQruYc8t8uu7kzUz_8-fxZj/s972/3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="679" data-original-width="972" height="448" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibS9Lg9upoUuIu99AGmXYsPjbZWJRI90NENwvaROVmsq_tYjbcin6n0w_CYPx-hv1j3DfvsUGDmXQ6y8WS3XSJZo7pIeTUQxW-Sursh0kiSbhzdfKqotlq0ZTTAB3nYtL6JXV9PXUXRspNy6A5lt8rQFbt1_Ej38vsxsyleXQruYc8t8uu7kzUz_8-fxZj/w640-h448/3.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><b>Precipitation - </b><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFlmvRsf3KqFw-gG6OLHFqAicFyS0Z4vAr_zU-rGXMLG-WpYsw6mhlzLCBYEY0NSLZHNBy_mezCxH1yhVOy2-apoVAeW3oEpxtGFkG5NJfDsFCJToxe0q4_bIzyGVWfiZDKOEKXC9JIZM6AympqufDwuuYPVixiHc8XKqWHlgYhEXKe96EU48WosbJWEsT/s968/4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="690" data-original-width="968" height="456" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFlmvRsf3KqFw-gG6OLHFqAicFyS0Z4vAr_zU-rGXMLG-WpYsw6mhlzLCBYEY0NSLZHNBy_mezCxH1yhVOy2-apoVAeW3oEpxtGFkG5NJfDsFCJToxe0q4_bIzyGVWfiZDKOEKXC9JIZM6AympqufDwuuYPVixiHc8XKqWHlgYhEXKe96EU48WosbJWEsT/w640-h456/4.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />Thanks for reading!<p></p>Ross Janssenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09448734924733257676noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3466064543380551353.post-4581307959401933062024-02-08T07:50:00.000-06:002024-02-08T07:50:19.342-06:00Improving lake levels as we gear up for more winter<p>It's not the huge amount of rain that California has had in early February, but the rain we had in our first weekend of the month has helped improve lake levels - some. You can see the numbers below, but Cheney is still only 69% full (compared to conservation pool) and El Dorado is back up to 88% full. There's still plenty of room for more water in area lakes to say the least. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbdYev6HiwXlVUJYmXxJseC-L5pwBN08RjounKasPREaEv1D98Yyo_d-DmbDnP6VycjyRHGFuzm6tsHJ4SQ5jZJBRgVe11LgJnnprQxvAyQ-FmRKA4OKTICR_9dBHonDHWqnWUaWBLhy2kTJgPOVhyphenhyphenh_WYBWuPnakHasRWOnk4ImKMQJnksgMJIqsYQqJC/s1920/1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbdYev6HiwXlVUJYmXxJseC-L5pwBN08RjounKasPREaEv1D98Yyo_d-DmbDnP6VycjyRHGFuzm6tsHJ4SQ5jZJBRgVe11LgJnnprQxvAyQ-FmRKA4OKTICR_9dBHonDHWqnWUaWBLhy2kTJgPOVhyphenhyphenh_WYBWuPnakHasRWOnk4ImKMQJnksgMJIqsYQqJC/w640-h360/1.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>Our second drought map in February shows improvement too:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwAeRE0ak_18KPCymRMGOX75YDyoI2qm-2aUwYEaejinCpKQMkdHIvjAwKz2Q6LE_bAsniQFeecvcuyTHV9_VzkfxblnwA9uRK2Bh2uQEs6vFaZ_22UHQVych8WRd-i35j6P3ONk3aptXYf_LeSd9Cu1ziaMzzY6aLuMmxI6M6zppqsYGiG4-B4imOXSOH/s1920/4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwAeRE0ak_18KPCymRMGOX75YDyoI2qm-2aUwYEaejinCpKQMkdHIvjAwKz2Q6LE_bAsniQFeecvcuyTHV9_VzkfxblnwA9uRK2Bh2uQEs6vFaZ_22UHQVych8WRd-i35j6P3ONk3aptXYf_LeSd9Cu1ziaMzzY6aLuMmxI6M6zppqsYGiG4-B4imOXSOH/w640-h360/4.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>Another round of winter weather should hit Saturday night/Sunday, but this is not going to be a major blizzard, nor will it be the biggest winter storm we've had this year. We've been watching the track of this system, which initially was over Kansas, then it was south of us, and now it has trended back over our area. The back-and-forth on the computer models has happened several times this winter, so we anticipated more snow would likely be coming this way.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEij8ASFpZemP0rzKBw7Jqzg4htM2jts6fWpzuWb_k7pWYTae8j1Ucs4ioUB7upcKdMfpfey5ivEK0Y1m_AvyKaTQy0ZjNBkoBl3x6ZoCF5pqdhCXRFnz7NOvfsZHJGfen88NKuQJCYBgLk_r9AncN1ti4OyF3XnJCjojJ8h6aPIh1dbwp10S7HkoZFzAdVc/s1920/AC%20%201.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEij8ASFpZemP0rzKBw7Jqzg4htM2jts6fWpzuWb_k7pWYTae8j1Ucs4ioUB7upcKdMfpfey5ivEK0Y1m_AvyKaTQy0ZjNBkoBl3x6ZoCF5pqdhCXRFnz7NOvfsZHJGfen88NKuQJCYBgLk_r9AncN1ti4OyF3XnJCjojJ8h6aPIh1dbwp10S7HkoZFzAdVc/w640-h360/AC%20%201.png" width="640" /></a></div><p><b>This is how February has started:</b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSxb_OoJGyu06iLMAEE37MA2_IVDVQiit16j6_LkCbMpU7uAYmCI12kFol2PES37F8PyJEIGlUb34enFmKRYbgiCv-r0Q28sDiq2FcMasTHarwKjUPZVHF9Doabom7rJHbxX7Q7p-ISXgdzKF5grmrsVtIFgZ3rvnMoD5DXRBfSMS2m5gMT-bShV2lkuFo/s1920/2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSxb_OoJGyu06iLMAEE37MA2_IVDVQiit16j6_LkCbMpU7uAYmCI12kFol2PES37F8PyJEIGlUb34enFmKRYbgiCv-r0Q28sDiq2FcMasTHarwKjUPZVHF9Doabom7rJHbxX7Q7p-ISXgdzKF5grmrsVtIFgZ3rvnMoD5DXRBfSMS2m5gMT-bShV2lkuFo/w640-h360/2.png" width="640" /></a></div><p><b>And where we are going next:</b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgg3H0Fdyt_Nwxt05WDB_tfgPNICPDkoYNJLKbxqLqtf6Zq5tzPAJT16AfG8olMgxPjW76jyePUSo26C0iqJtKBA2bAJeM5a5nozhZme_wZSW5mHgVkk3ug4UyowtKl3oPhkwxFrtq97al-snYLcxgWRCbEREJTORvrekTA_nAhBzBGbLLdzTl368S_rKu3/s974/AC%20%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="668" data-original-width="974" height="438" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgg3H0Fdyt_Nwxt05WDB_tfgPNICPDkoYNJLKbxqLqtf6Zq5tzPAJT16AfG8olMgxPjW76jyePUSo26C0iqJtKBA2bAJeM5a5nozhZme_wZSW5mHgVkk3ug4UyowtKl3oPhkwxFrtq97al-snYLcxgWRCbEREJTORvrekTA_nAhBzBGbLLdzTl368S_rKu3/w640-h438/AC%20%201.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>There's still plenty more winter left as you look at the 32-day snowfall forecast for the country. Interesting how far south it depicts snow accumulation, but absolutely fitting with the active southern branch of the jet stream. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeIeLqJhXLRNs9_92C4xTdvyYK7TmIb3sO8lC90OYGvaeaK_6sxvjgphZ5M8jMcjzARh-s2_ygtj2OtMSNgKLZQqbSjApW3wvpHwmIxhdTqkU-KC0kdtPSxjRR3eg42BboqEypxDLTyCjrLEu7-xZlZvZEWKiwQ2q-POwcavbAlYfblIil2ocJ_e5RRFyR/s968/5.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="671" data-original-width="968" height="444" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeIeLqJhXLRNs9_92C4xTdvyYK7TmIb3sO8lC90OYGvaeaK_6sxvjgphZ5M8jMcjzARh-s2_ygtj2OtMSNgKLZQqbSjApW3wvpHwmIxhdTqkU-KC0kdtPSxjRR3eg42BboqEypxDLTyCjrLEu7-xZlZvZEWKiwQ2q-POwcavbAlYfblIil2ocJ_e5RRFyR/w640-h444/5.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><p><b><br /></b></p><p><b>We are less than 2 months from the Great American Solar Eclipse - April 8, 2024:</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirHxM3Z8tUEGahyphenhyphenyOJJ3XzH2iHdG8g8vEYJzsQ3jnriJxZ6SPktGNfjI_zrkXWI9G1-A8L1YRcyzzHbDqyLWuqdw7XrII7sUgKnCosrXmCDjAFs6UGGWD34Y6U__h9NDzue0cvpXLJMsThmTeoLVUExDPfm3GXKaVib_64fpSHV84g1d4m7JZQVPV_tLO8/s1920/CW%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirHxM3Z8tUEGahyphenhyphenyOJJ3XzH2iHdG8g8vEYJzsQ3jnriJxZ6SPktGNfjI_zrkXWI9G1-A8L1YRcyzzHbDqyLWuqdw7XrII7sUgKnCosrXmCDjAFs6UGGWD34Y6U__h9NDzue0cvpXLJMsThmTeoLVUExDPfm3GXKaVib_64fpSHV84g1d4m7JZQVPV_tLO8/w640-h360/CW%201.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>Of course, we don't know just how cloudy the sky will be when this celestial event takes place, but here's a map showcasing "average" cloud cover on April 8. Every year is different, we know that, but for planning purposes, it might be safer to choose a spot on the southern end of the track. Based on climatology, you are more likely to encounter overcast conditions the farther north that you go. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyHgmEQtVoTIdM8PsT6pFbZlEkR9-bTt1ySasmuYWH32nL4DzlsAH0hByggkX0v_V80kbJO0DYa4I2D9tOCkLoBu2piTSNj_2qnzJ1xXLhtySgYkWmk5m79ii2uBRc9dwidoZ30Tak0cEgMIQ2Yx_M-m-rlCE0SVbbO07yNBCfAWYQl8HSl6GD6gD-4q3W/s1400/Solar%20Eclipse%20Cloud%20Cover.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="703" data-original-width="1400" height="322" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyHgmEQtVoTIdM8PsT6pFbZlEkR9-bTt1ySasmuYWH32nL4DzlsAH0hByggkX0v_V80kbJO0DYa4I2D9tOCkLoBu2piTSNj_2qnzJ1xXLhtySgYkWmk5m79ii2uBRc9dwidoZ30Tak0cEgMIQ2Yx_M-m-rlCE0SVbbO07yNBCfAWYQl8HSl6GD6gD-4q3W/w640-h322/Solar%20Eclipse%20Cloud%20Cover.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>And even more interesting (courtesy of NASA), with an El Nino influence on the overall pattern, there tends to be less cloud cover in April for the southern part of the country. Areas farther north don't see much change on overall cloudiness due to El Nino, but all it takes is one good storm system to spoil it all. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhb8ropHz5IhnkPOhogvvUORmMYJZladff9kf8wrnv2OAXE_RjWcevMEwBTUmffeq0F3oMPa8drB1UMc7XSftOtbR6mHoRCDh4904jpjFtxI4OPxosqk4rOgNk6Xstg0UBwO_bfofFe53g-yqkuoStRk_uEihliLo2uPEI2fnyd20VHeXWywKugOGnFP0VV/s1078/3.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="557" data-original-width="1078" height="330" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhb8ropHz5IhnkPOhogvvUORmMYJZladff9kf8wrnv2OAXE_RjWcevMEwBTUmffeq0F3oMPa8drB1UMc7XSftOtbR6mHoRCDh4904jpjFtxI4OPxosqk4rOgNk6Xstg0UBwO_bfofFe53g-yqkuoStRk_uEihliLo2uPEI2fnyd20VHeXWywKugOGnFP0VV/w640-h330/3.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>Thanks for reading!</p>Ross Janssenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09448734924733257676noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3466064543380551353.post-10333407358606742402024-02-01T07:44:00.004-06:002024-02-01T07:44:32.256-06:00February rain, cold, and more snow<p>It's been quite a mild ride to wrap up our first month of the new year. Before we get into February stuff, did you see that Kansas is outpacing Minnesota (of all places) for snow this winter? You have to admit, that's a little crazy to think about:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZwe4qMII4UbS6vavUao-8eIDv1TqTlkGfEMgEJYHb0iM3kU5-37FSOSytzYR21RwLOFGy3UNWvZW2T9nYfzTO0g5Qcq4jdaj3BFBQqemnUxXSWeBnnkMYgQBe7C06YrST27lp6o7TTdJRAOfeqdguc198A4VNhmjpA493NfI2-7JRpVTls6EnTw9TOihh/s1920/1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZwe4qMII4UbS6vavUao-8eIDv1TqTlkGfEMgEJYHb0iM3kU5-37FSOSytzYR21RwLOFGy3UNWvZW2T9nYfzTO0g5Qcq4jdaj3BFBQqemnUxXSWeBnnkMYgQBe7C06YrST27lp6o7TTdJRAOfeqdguc198A4VNhmjpA493NfI2-7JRpVTls6EnTw9TOihh/w640-h360/1.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>February, on average, is not a very wet month for Kansas. In fact, it ranks in either 1st or 2nd place for driest months out of the year. See the stats below (and also take note of how much daylight we are gaining during the month - our sunset will soon be after 6pm)</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_CJzl1YDN_Af9Sp4hgar9soHp-NaaSrzOZQu90ie1XDxRAY8_KIbP4-TiiQ9qRDr5riRQgTqQtSGAbKLtzqCCzpUA5fvlNFi4rEXqU5E5eV3sLGNrQw2lNXQVCbp3L_aMW9-6b-1hqYEnqxp6TiAKv-K7-6w1IEYMDNk1sg60U0W6kuBMYqisCuNujaqI/s1920/Capture%202.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_CJzl1YDN_Af9Sp4hgar9soHp-NaaSrzOZQu90ie1XDxRAY8_KIbP4-TiiQ9qRDr5riRQgTqQtSGAbKLtzqCCzpUA5fvlNFi4rEXqU5E5eV3sLGNrQw2lNXQVCbp3L_aMW9-6b-1hqYEnqxp6TiAKv-K7-6w1IEYMDNk1sg60U0W6kuBMYqisCuNujaqI/w640-h360/Capture%202.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>Our first big system in the new month will do what not many systems do - a month's worth of rain all at once. In most months, that can spell trouble with major flooding, washed out roads, water in basements, etc. But since this is February and average are low anyway, we shouldn't see those problems on a large scale. And after all, there are MANY lakes and ponds out there that could still hold more water. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFuOOZX_lriEoN4WtrBKg9XDIMh_LNhyphenhyphenEJ3YIACI7qL5wSRZrBLx4APdVyERRRP08dLTYR6LAysfzERdaoacYe3YF-ERZhZWwy-9MITOoyKf0aaUH60r9TjvGEame429pZEF_ecPAgMa9lL8PwkQeVC2Ts5rKMVioWrsXnwFlDImaRSC3XktjLV5DWL-T9/s1920/CW%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFuOOZX_lriEoN4WtrBKg9XDIMh_LNhyphenhyphenEJ3YIACI7qL5wSRZrBLx4APdVyERRRP08dLTYR6LAysfzERdaoacYe3YF-ERZhZWwy-9MITOoyKf0aaUH60r9TjvGEame429pZEF_ecPAgMa9lL8PwkQeVC2Ts5rKMVioWrsXnwFlDImaRSC3XktjLV5DWL-T9/w640-h360/CW%201.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>Why will this be such a big rain event? The connection to the Gulf of Mexico is a huge factor, but you also have to consider the rain will extended over three days. The combo of a good moisture supply and a slow moving event. As much as we might be tired of fighting mud, this is what we need to erase more of the drought colors from the map. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9yDcKDT3dLJGvmon6LD2d7SxaweeuDmZOPelLYghsAzKaAlN7b5e2D4Hw91RMATRyR_u40t5rUce3E2zLAy8vjtHv1CEzaNO_YOFOqAE2BqOc_rakaAuhyqpVZT8LT2TFRLi1aWQXI7f8DY3AX-0v8TE_A-E3v9gHlHAdM_u6LzKkRikSoTxdQZWdQH_O/s1920/3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9yDcKDT3dLJGvmon6LD2d7SxaweeuDmZOPelLYghsAzKaAlN7b5e2D4Hw91RMATRyR_u40t5rUce3E2zLAy8vjtHv1CEzaNO_YOFOqAE2BqOc_rakaAuhyqpVZT8LT2TFRLi1aWQXI7f8DY3AX-0v8TE_A-E3v9gHlHAdM_u6LzKkRikSoTxdQZWdQH_O/w640-h360/3.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiilFLw1D3CEueMNPanoX0uYDoh9KcUkO3JG3cifxZnIwKBd0vGvkiITz0Tz1zi6hU2lS3ALM_ZN9VJ5fnOVnWuMWP_XXGa2nqlq4lbAEq7Xrjje5ECc-wztLLXT95lpbrxO2ZlzkNOttbyd5AbF8xhZyMEIif6i7tdeai2w5KiBecxmXeA3WrVKMFFm2-a/s1920/CW%204.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiilFLw1D3CEueMNPanoX0uYDoh9KcUkO3JG3cifxZnIwKBd0vGvkiITz0Tz1zi6hU2lS3ALM_ZN9VJ5fnOVnWuMWP_XXGa2nqlq4lbAEq7Xrjje5ECc-wztLLXT95lpbrxO2ZlzkNOttbyd5AbF8xhZyMEIif6i7tdeai2w5KiBecxmXeA3WrVKMFFm2-a/w640-h360/CW%204.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><b>Winter isn't over!!</b></p><p>Just look at the Arctic Oscillation - a reminder that when its negative, there is a stronger tendency for higher pressures in the northern latitudes. That usually forces colder air to dive south into the US. In the chart below, note the GREEN line and how it remains negative all the way into early March. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEid31KnGKKDNzlq4LqKfamJfIS2xnBY0Cxy6FHQ3LI_0ER8ncymQUXKG72gRzTG1IdCh_lHhkKmGuF1MkogNXNzgNo6dOmtUBMnDLEWW6TZWleamq6PXh1dlNZj28oLqWvLuwRMF4y_GYa3wKS-3JGZUZ9sjHN5ttvU2V-jnRdsDwSjOCACz_jiaadbfSvQ/s954/4.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="684" data-original-width="954" height="458" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEid31KnGKKDNzlq4LqKfamJfIS2xnBY0Cxy6FHQ3LI_0ER8ncymQUXKG72gRzTG1IdCh_lHhkKmGuF1MkogNXNzgNo6dOmtUBMnDLEWW6TZWleamq6PXh1dlNZj28oLqWvLuwRMF4y_GYa3wKS-3JGZUZ9sjHN5ttvU2V-jnRdsDwSjOCACz_jiaadbfSvQ/w640-h458/4.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>Here's what happens from Valentine's Day into late February:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjx2J3AYro7UElOaBcRESCTBuv7j1dSLajZHcQH5IBmrFLWJGLH5zTNTYcddXrRt9Pcob-3qrZsFo9PlKWF1skEqKTRJGvgFoq3TiIDEwh7lKGp7YyVAOb-PZJ_C6vxc0nw1Oyg0bqA2Wowxus0HpQpPr7IaOph4QfiD2pTVlwljO6tGWtYGcg3ruFinjL5/s967/6.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="677" data-original-width="967" height="448" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjx2J3AYro7UElOaBcRESCTBuv7j1dSLajZHcQH5IBmrFLWJGLH5zTNTYcddXrRt9Pcob-3qrZsFo9PlKWF1skEqKTRJGvgFoq3TiIDEwh7lKGp7YyVAOb-PZJ_C6vxc0nw1Oyg0bqA2Wowxus0HpQpPr7IaOph4QfiD2pTVlwljO6tGWtYGcg3ruFinjL5/w640-h448/6.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>And if you are still here reading along, this new map just came down Thursday morning. It showcases precipitation for February, March, and April (all lumped together in one map) - no big surprise. The wet winter spills over to spring, and I don't see the active, southern jet stream slowing down anytime soon. And this "above average moisture" will include more snow. If you weren't tired of winter yet, you probably will be come April. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMIyh7CupfQ02I9Qh5ZcePO_hdMN42VEknRy8m3iRl1zVL4aniBi8nBrid3lZeiBS06sSnBsnZdm2YTouHgxBcmwOWChAFnTAIAOExsAjTOF_gz6xmzhyphenhyphen-jA3tfDOnN5WYaJY78Xv1YTxssGlGrm2rLESmWf6px2UMuBs_UnzVf-f2K4r-EWrIvPO9LrEc/s967/4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="692" data-original-width="967" height="458" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMIyh7CupfQ02I9Qh5ZcePO_hdMN42VEknRy8m3iRl1zVL4aniBi8nBrid3lZeiBS06sSnBsnZdm2YTouHgxBcmwOWChAFnTAIAOExsAjTOF_gz6xmzhyphenhyphen-jA3tfDOnN5WYaJY78Xv1YTxssGlGrm2rLESmWf6px2UMuBs_UnzVf-f2K4r-EWrIvPO9LrEc/w640-h458/4.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>Have a great day!!</p>Ross Janssenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09448734924733257676noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3466064543380551353.post-28189624431868661012024-01-25T07:55:00.003-06:002024-01-25T07:55:20.574-06:00Whiplash is coming in FebruaryI found it really hard to believe the other day that so many locations in Kansas hadn't experienced a 50° day in January. We all know it's been cold, but for some reason I thought we had made it to 50 earlier in the month. At any rate, we are moving into the 50s for the last few days of the month, but January as a whole has been cold! (see the map below)<div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzV48xJoYfZ4nuje5eSdO1ox1o26k3ujTwuqm0LJexrVhzj3rZDKbo7XHW-JQ6AD1rXYv4H1nM366LRbzO7wbIo1Vq0OJbAj2T3p8QtvIYK6RZSYeUa9rchIqdmNBV-CL6mobtSe3zhf80oYEaqhIaab3QqC4pZ_DgmvRj9KxSGSoDbyRwd_s8cAGvYhGu/s968/8.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="629" data-original-width="968" height="416" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzV48xJoYfZ4nuje5eSdO1ox1o26k3ujTwuqm0LJexrVhzj3rZDKbo7XHW-JQ6AD1rXYv4H1nM366LRbzO7wbIo1Vq0OJbAj2T3p8QtvIYK6RZSYeUa9rchIqdmNBV-CL6mobtSe3zhf80oYEaqhIaab3QqC4pZ_DgmvRj9KxSGSoDbyRwd_s8cAGvYhGu/w640-h416/8.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><div><div><br /></div><div>The pattern is all different next week, where we find ourselves in the calm before February's storm. When it comes to rain (or snow), we are basically in no man's land for either one. And it will be way to warm for snow anyway. A building ridge of high pressure sets the stage for a huge surge in warm air, and it wouldn't be impossible for a day (or two) briefly getting to 60°</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaDH8IVi5dJlWpVTeD4sqduU-B7rLQowO-t8PNdN4r3RcI2KYU91IKU-CL-ShWkRh6m-njEHPJZ5RdmB6Cof_iYTtzYDiNjdsQoK37mIvswXSjRsFCTeAEJsUQVPQDlGW6JZxq5Tcje-YkJvWkcfwW6s4bavn2ke_FazTAftGc5o91H9KTSvt0ZRkioIhY/s1920/AC%20%204.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaDH8IVi5dJlWpVTeD4sqduU-B7rLQowO-t8PNdN4r3RcI2KYU91IKU-CL-ShWkRh6m-njEHPJZ5RdmB6Cof_iYTtzYDiNjdsQoK37mIvswXSjRsFCTeAEJsUQVPQDlGW6JZxq5Tcje-YkJvWkcfwW6s4bavn2ke_FazTAftGc5o91H9KTSvt0ZRkioIhY/w640-h360/AC%20%204.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Much of the country will experience the "January thaw" for the end of the month, and even the first few days into February look rather mild too. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidGELc9s1DuK81w5H1B0J4w4bW3iAXEzEfth9GGJPHFYPcCeHrO4vryZhZVPUJNoZES-IE9NuFordOKUGGba5H4_aM6ypVdERIGR3dYUBvIw4-DXWF_cqc_PCL9hTfib3fpeXcAyTTGIPCAhrgNrH4bPtMekFI45ZK3NEtxpmM5FRAijKs67YBjn5QCH10/s1920/AC%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidGELc9s1DuK81w5H1B0J4w4bW3iAXEzEfth9GGJPHFYPcCeHrO4vryZhZVPUJNoZES-IE9NuFordOKUGGba5H4_aM6ypVdERIGR3dYUBvIw4-DXWF_cqc_PCL9hTfib3fpeXcAyTTGIPCAhrgNrH4bPtMekFI45ZK3NEtxpmM5FRAijKs67YBjn5QCH10/w640-h360/AC%201.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>There's no doubt we will quickly move back into a wet setup and eventually, colder weather is going to find its way back to the Plains. We hinted at this in our last update that given a "negative" Arctic Oscillation, we should see the gates open to Canada once again. I don't think it will be quite as cold as the stretch we had earlier in January, but highs in the teens and 20s would certainly be in the realm of possibilities moving forward.</div><div><br /></div></div><div><b>Moisture returns soon:</b></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPiRrzjP0sXNWwObTu69cBBiXUdHEVtdtpqoBOhqKvkTU5p_3vSDpKEQR12gbGfR_PhAeV1sJyPZVl9_f44XlRGfdeivCbBcBkdydvBI0tvAGGvpAQ9Umh9MuF2pZvEzfgJUkNXchZ7-g6mSk8k1XHI8D6si3qQrUtIw0HKa7m7iL-yCovBfTys4di3bsQ/s964/5.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="649" data-original-width="964" height="430" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPiRrzjP0sXNWwObTu69cBBiXUdHEVtdtpqoBOhqKvkTU5p_3vSDpKEQR12gbGfR_PhAeV1sJyPZVl9_f44XlRGfdeivCbBcBkdydvBI0tvAGGvpAQ9Umh9MuF2pZvEzfgJUkNXchZ7-g6mSk8k1XHI8D6si3qQrUtIw0HKa7m7iL-yCovBfTys4di3bsQ/w640-h430/5.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><br />The southern branch of the jet stream is ramping up again, and we will see more low pressure systems coming at us from the desert Southwest. Be prepared as we move into the first week of the new month!</div><div><br /></div><div><b>The cold is not over yet:</b></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3LLWSOyW6Pr3LvFC6ulUDTQSMdDFzy4TarRBaLTui8QHZuXcPmQzehSniUULN5TNVg9l_XcvaJpgdBlJAjghuhaAF7c0jh_5suujVGo7XiC_YzGUYMQMrtSisjvuEdZsU3jllh5pVZRbPeI2XWrJsMSE280d57zR-IuJ6CQPeoD95AI3CtPQggGIhOLrD/s970/Capture%201.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="693" data-original-width="970" height="458" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3LLWSOyW6Pr3LvFC6ulUDTQSMdDFzy4TarRBaLTui8QHZuXcPmQzehSniUULN5TNVg9l_XcvaJpgdBlJAjghuhaAF7c0jh_5suujVGo7XiC_YzGUYMQMrtSisjvuEdZsU3jllh5pVZRbPeI2XWrJsMSE280d57zR-IuJ6CQPeoD95AI3CtPQggGIhOLrD/w640-h458/Capture%201.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /></div><div>While I'm not convinced the February cold snap is like the January one, we are not headed for early spring. I have a strong feeling that the month ahead is colder than average, so don't let the early February warmth lead you astray. The map above would suggest much of the country will be headed for cold weather again soon. Oh boy.</div>Ross Janssenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09448734924733257676noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3466064543380551353.post-84946844314158575322024-01-18T07:49:00.003-06:002024-01-18T07:49:26.890-06:00Seasonal snow checkup & is the Arctic air done with?<p>The last Arctic blast has probably overstayed its welcome for most of you, but it is almost over. It's not a big surprise that it stayed for so long and the stout nature of it goes along with just how much of the United States is covered in snow. Look at the map as of Wednesday afternoon showing just how much real estate is blanketed by some amount of snow. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0_tBk52gfZwFhFNMvip_24nHEwgmbZG2drE_D8lZo55nklpiChAqUCWkKb2aoXxHpIl80hh4V7UQZmFPB0y_WSFbjmE_cWj0N09WGIP6QcDGepXu9a3QvBK4L4C0VP3bcKDWAecUF5rlFr5Cqxl8XQdAb5xBruvuoIA11BEKAziQkvGN02oZ1oU3UQrJk/s1920/1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0_tBk52gfZwFhFNMvip_24nHEwgmbZG2drE_D8lZo55nklpiChAqUCWkKb2aoXxHpIl80hh4V7UQZmFPB0y_WSFbjmE_cWj0N09WGIP6QcDGepXu9a3QvBK4L4C0VP3bcKDWAecUF5rlFr5Cqxl8XQdAb5xBruvuoIA11BEKAziQkvGN02oZ1oU3UQrJk/w640-h360/1.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>And then compare that to one year ago on January 17th when it was quite limited to the northern US and higher elevations. Remember last winter was another season with very low snow amounts for Kansas.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIMU4plWxlTC_aUN5QBiS21PAtC96ySd141xC44jZuetihDwBQWivcNvCm0RbVjXMfkNl6qtyaArHvLbf6r1DjqH2C9ryak5whBAxqkINTYP7pZvO6lME9cIFEu1oD2OLZDc5G6KGvXC0JOJXu1iJxtasDUX-C6zGnD8t7xcc5073lbKv-hLDsA3seyiBt/s978/4.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="459" data-original-width="978" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIMU4plWxlTC_aUN5QBiS21PAtC96ySd141xC44jZuetihDwBQWivcNvCm0RbVjXMfkNl6qtyaArHvLbf6r1DjqH2C9ryak5whBAxqkINTYP7pZvO6lME9cIFEu1oD2OLZDc5G6KGvXC0JOJXu1iJxtasDUX-C6zGnD8t7xcc5073lbKv-hLDsA3seyiBt/w640-h300/4.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>At this point of the winter season, here are some snow amounts for a few select locations in Kansas, and they are all above average. What gave us the biggest boost in south central Kansas was the big snow right after Thanksgiving. Since then, we've had some smaller snows, but there's still plenty more to come before spring arrives. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRlb1MjeD-l0jmN052sUVUEQSeXeo9nTdvCmXTbQWM_z2I632-G4V_wGefRNlrDAiBABFxRylF-wl6xFlm-HrbFPd3zlNCEguY2z7qTsSaYm0vSNzt33XHu3KkonQmzFZwDnUqf15DuuDprJactY17hezSXhGr9KzK_qerri4WSEn_-Ekb9YcR9oK8cWpj/s1920/Capture%204.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRlb1MjeD-l0jmN052sUVUEQSeXeo9nTdvCmXTbQWM_z2I632-G4V_wGefRNlrDAiBABFxRylF-wl6xFlm-HrbFPd3zlNCEguY2z7qTsSaYm0vSNzt33XHu3KkonQmzFZwDnUqf15DuuDprJactY17hezSXhGr9KzK_qerri4WSEn_-Ekb9YcR9oK8cWpj/w640-h360/Capture%204.png" width="640" /></a></div><p><b>What's left in January?</b></p><p>The Arctic air is over for now, but we think it may return in February. A little bit more about that in a second. First, take a look at the next 10-12 days:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmJ-IHBzyRjbmZlQy0IGSi1V6iOB0sKvRP2vMMqYH6hN5Vmo2Eta6rfAR6mgOcr68jd6hXre-ctBbzL8nsBhFpAOYHHzYZMSlTWYsFbVfo_kagDbK8PpQxd2OIKEdK3pLp2k5IKuWl9XXOUsjpwrdKJs1HU0nIpVgXVumj1VuJVga-Wj_LMwalbHg2cdFe/s950/3.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="684" data-original-width="950" height="460" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmJ-IHBzyRjbmZlQy0IGSi1V6iOB0sKvRP2vMMqYH6hN5Vmo2Eta6rfAR6mgOcr68jd6hXre-ctBbzL8nsBhFpAOYHHzYZMSlTWYsFbVfo_kagDbK8PpQxd2OIKEdK3pLp2k5IKuWl9XXOUsjpwrdKJs1HU0nIpVgXVumj1VuJVga-Wj_LMwalbHg2cdFe/w640-h460/3.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><p>And early February looks milder too - at least no sign of bitter cold. This will likely yield highs in the 40s and 50s. The Arctic Oscillation is trending back toward positive for 7-10 days, and I would think most of the country thaw a bit. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNhyphenhyphenBiTeaRbuX96Q_y88sau18YwSb1ftrTAII5Ay1pJhTvYhYFwRf08c1ggot_m0u-MuJWAxzQMRjULJ30YEB6lvcYMENkdYGMML9CjbbcC8XLOx5Pav7uVLlGMkeIULZRVCECgYGjVsCBqEAAaDr4LpPJtAWQP7vBolF2Ll4Il8l5LMcCWlWwvpfrzrMP/s972/Capture%207.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="683" data-original-width="972" height="450" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNhyphenhyphenBiTeaRbuX96Q_y88sau18YwSb1ftrTAII5Ay1pJhTvYhYFwRf08c1ggot_m0u-MuJWAxzQMRjULJ30YEB6lvcYMENkdYGMML9CjbbcC8XLOx5Pav7uVLlGMkeIULZRVCECgYGjVsCBqEAAaDr4LpPJtAWQP7vBolF2Ll4Il8l5LMcCWlWwvpfrzrMP/w640-h450/Capture%207.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>The next 3-4 weeks will likely remain productive when it comes to moisture for the central/southern Plains. This is very fitting with how our winter has been tracking - active southern branch of the jet and more chances to push back on drought. The graphic below is "compared to average", and right now, the average rainfall is low, only about .50" or so. It's even lower in western Kansas. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxKTa7T987wk_MR_D77kbs5mreWr_CiR3XKl3TI3cunQyedRGseaosuYqjnuq5bykl1XFh4Xj5Qmp2WmE1fiWNJs6_1vvmY7OxasYCU6AiHmpkZzwBW2XACXgVo60YX9qcCa4I3EKQl3LML53EoAiSPw3GgsT4Lzh_e7csApexDtzt9skA0VPqedx33v6P/s975/6.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="686" data-original-width="975" height="450" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxKTa7T987wk_MR_D77kbs5mreWr_CiR3XKl3TI3cunQyedRGseaosuYqjnuq5bykl1XFh4Xj5Qmp2WmE1fiWNJs6_1vvmY7OxasYCU6AiHmpkZzwBW2XACXgVo60YX9qcCa4I3EKQl3LML53EoAiSPw3GgsT4Lzh_e7csApexDtzt9skA0VPqedx33v6P/w640-h450/6.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>Is there more Arctic air? - Yes, I think there is a good chance we will have another encounter with it, but most likely not until the 2nd half of February. However, I don't see it lasting as long, and it more than likely won't be as extreme for Kansas (the heart of it should setup mainly EAST of us). Let's watch for this in the last few weeks of February.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhZGMIpiuAGPxwmAbYABYpdWWAV98d_6ezVGz3fUgWCIGNqwzI8QBf_R-MGutMO84jf6ZFvSIOVOdg2C5t-vEOp2Q4qnr6V7O9MOLTvgRJjCwybdAe8Z3IUbG7L-V7u9IoohJNiUbD6Joyew1Qv-eNYduYzS_mKDXSNdqwHPzkxSRsGvQrIJG9kfnnp3O3/s976/2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="678" data-original-width="976" height="444" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhZGMIpiuAGPxwmAbYABYpdWWAV98d_6ezVGz3fUgWCIGNqwzI8QBf_R-MGutMO84jf6ZFvSIOVOdg2C5t-vEOp2Q4qnr6V7O9MOLTvgRJjCwybdAe8Z3IUbG7L-V7u9IoohJNiUbD6Joyew1Qv-eNYduYzS_mKDXSNdqwHPzkxSRsGvQrIJG9kfnnp3O3/w640-h444/2.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>Thanks for reading!</p>Ross Janssenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09448734924733257676noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3466064543380551353.post-78434195757880091182024-01-11T08:09:00.000-06:002024-01-11T08:09:00.886-06:00More snow & Arctic air. Will this be it?Arctic air is going to be the talker through at least January 17, as it covers a good chunk of the United States. Here's what the period Jan. 12-16 looks like from a national perspective:<div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhg6CSbm2AwUGmZm7rTqOi69jhYnYlGeu0MeKjaFSXAJZJJqt8Z8NQvA4lCmEat9f1LEtJHSZOQU-5H-1Q5wplzynmaJQzCGbaOCQyDfmW7Gr1ond9Ximgm6yZN64fUU1vTgXY1Rm4mWuHPqoBTq1sX27HQB4Z1CXd9Deob7HTph9ssZFtqA1m5H8AUMDAA/s1920/WEB%201.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhg6CSbm2AwUGmZm7rTqOi69jhYnYlGeu0MeKjaFSXAJZJJqt8Z8NQvA4lCmEat9f1LEtJHSZOQU-5H-1Q5wplzynmaJQzCGbaOCQyDfmW7Gr1ond9Ximgm6yZN64fUU1vTgXY1Rm4mWuHPqoBTq1sX27HQB4Z1CXd9Deob7HTph9ssZFtqA1m5H8AUMDAA/w640-h360/WEB%201.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /></div><div>And it won't be our last bout with Arctic air, as we will be right on the edge of the "coldest" stuff heading into next weekend. Expect a glancing blow of Arctic air next Friday/Saturday - maybe into Sunday too.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-6dw6DZiG8zzwAxJYccBAlf4GrVA8h96Uv1Ht1-sCmpsRbWR-sFUTS6918uPhpgEisOLBDTDZRJeamUE-tnBrVigf5oZJkbMRUxGMKGQsGOtHzTw8Dp0qEV29mZ9TcU3nNKro24O_rd2Z4O2OFJPW7W0qAp_MRahZLyWm9BUQClgSa3aLJtkp_ZeFyBWf/s1920/WEB%202.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-6dw6DZiG8zzwAxJYccBAlf4GrVA8h96Uv1Ht1-sCmpsRbWR-sFUTS6918uPhpgEisOLBDTDZRJeamUE-tnBrVigf5oZJkbMRUxGMKGQsGOtHzTw8Dp0qEV29mZ9TcU3nNKro24O_rd2Z4O2OFJPW7W0qAp_MRahZLyWm9BUQClgSa3aLJtkp_ZeFyBWf/w640-h360/WEB%202.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>For reference, the average high is around 43/44° and most days will come in well under that. </div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4IZZY5q0hPzNNRKMFq86LG22Kzwhhadty5YsP3cP6rGdvw9s_1JdpXmWLAp-nQkx9qUSbAsr-yLhZtc2WtaU2wC1rjdZYhjL0UrtCnVbvJdYbcSGln5T66gBwVBGO6oNITn7XxSNCdro7ytzShTSZbswVja1eoNcg8qMwXXArAIYAjYXmvoe8io0zlp30/s972/1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="662" data-original-width="972" height="436" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4IZZY5q0hPzNNRKMFq86LG22Kzwhhadty5YsP3cP6rGdvw9s_1JdpXmWLAp-nQkx9qUSbAsr-yLhZtc2WtaU2wC1rjdZYhjL0UrtCnVbvJdYbcSGln5T66gBwVBGO6oNITn7XxSNCdro7ytzShTSZbswVja1eoNcg8qMwXXArAIYAjYXmvoe8io0zlp30/w640-h436/1.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><div><b>Longest stretches of sub-freezing temperatures:</b></div><div>Back in February 2021, there was an almost two-week stretch of highs below 32°. While it was one of the longest ones on record, there have been years where it was even longer.</div></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOzswflqp8_Uj_QIDGTcOCfruSY_g24f3IcOsjRAluD-ieqwZ1tUfhSuB6KGWwZehXCfi87MUS26Tc6kfAD8YnsPwquADqqWeIRo8fDy2uOjaTpdvCBaVUsTgRqiAmiZ3qInydvKYCW-StystLgdTk8ik7ELItLDWXTSrhF2Anab_hc7mXnibsNviZ4lGM/s1920/Capture%209.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOzswflqp8_Uj_QIDGTcOCfruSY_g24f3IcOsjRAluD-ieqwZ1tUfhSuB6KGWwZehXCfi87MUS26Tc6kfAD8YnsPwquADqqWeIRo8fDy2uOjaTpdvCBaVUsTgRqiAmiZ3qInydvKYCW-StystLgdTk8ik7ELItLDWXTSrhF2Anab_hc7mXnibsNviZ4lGM/w640-h360/Capture%209.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>This stretch coming later in the month won't be as cold as what we are facing in this first blast of Arctic air. But notice what is happening with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) as we go to the end of January and into early February. The green line (which is the one to watch) remains negative as we move down the stretch, which would suggest that it will remain cold for a while (not necessarily record setting), but any amount of "milder" air is likely short lived heading into early February (when the AO continues to show a negative trend.</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQLyHo2mDTjqCiwbEPMjvYznr3TIVRV1KO-hMQLQ2Il_0sLsf7Ls9UcG4un1RUZrLVCaUJXxTUNkOu3dZel0XtxEf5btuunCR-jWRhjfXX9zCnQ9K7jqQGg5aipPRdut3FrckdWbn7DEXAvl8DTA7sCuplULJ3HV2vv7eAgG4Ds2b9kE2tCdTrXN4CefqH/s967/2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="718" data-original-width="967" height="476" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQLyHo2mDTjqCiwbEPMjvYznr3TIVRV1KO-hMQLQ2Il_0sLsf7Ls9UcG4un1RUZrLVCaUJXxTUNkOu3dZel0XtxEf5btuunCR-jWRhjfXX9zCnQ9K7jqQGg5aipPRdut3FrckdWbn7DEXAvl8DTA7sCuplULJ3HV2vv7eAgG4Ds2b9kE2tCdTrXN4CefqH/w640-h476/2.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>More snow ahead?</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">A break in the active weather should be coming soon, but not something that will last for a long period of time. Take a look at late January (ending January 23). This may be the result of (temporary) northwest flow aloft, which tends to be drier for this area. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNhjL00m41wMBGiPUbAJ1_c-3UHp7SWBGmz4W6ywaeborvT54DS7rN4BSpJRwdfFdyftYEWOo-dphBHTH9dAdmqHlm5yoswBTUMYbmDW8UWO6jbnEbo-U-9QRsTX-OnwrodoPskVKKgR3lvkWH35gCw0oypDd6nxYfPPMZA2kGg7OeZcoGI9u9XTZ05qLl/s957/4.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="690" data-original-width="957" height="462" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNhjL00m41wMBGiPUbAJ1_c-3UHp7SWBGmz4W6ywaeborvT54DS7rN4BSpJRwdfFdyftYEWOo-dphBHTH9dAdmqHlm5yoswBTUMYbmDW8UWO6jbnEbo-U-9QRsTX-OnwrodoPskVKKgR3lvkWH35gCw0oypDd6nxYfPPMZA2kGg7OeZcoGI9u9XTZ05qLl/w640-h462/4.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>There will be more moisture coming heading into February:</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The active southern jet stream that is responsible for our wet winter so far will keep at it heading into next month. Here's a preview of the first 22 days of February. Computer models are already suggesting that an early February storm seems likely with good chances for snow. It's unclear how impactful the system will be, but we'll keep an eye on it.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv9qrftjcBLkTfYeoLLoiJhHhJFfnPAzfczYbbfSN3QCWI3Zd4LjPmccsJbr1ykeZ14ZOiGYj3ITFGwBZn7LCBmxvtFMPtqMGvohaXx61VTfzVA74kDV4h3mXVSeJ5pPTq0RjMMMW277Ytlc0gtziApBwEJruQSYkK0q0VIFPsYvEk57ghAfdiTCIFJZix/s974/3.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="666" data-original-width="974" height="438" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjv9qrftjcBLkTfYeoLLoiJhHhJFfnPAzfczYbbfSN3QCWI3Zd4LjPmccsJbr1ykeZ14ZOiGYj3ITFGwBZn7LCBmxvtFMPtqMGvohaXx61VTfzVA74kDV4h3mXVSeJ5pPTq0RjMMMW277Ytlc0gtziApBwEJruQSYkK0q0VIFPsYvEk57ghAfdiTCIFJZix/w640-h438/3.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>Snow forecast for the first 10 days of February:</b></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8EM6O4Gh6J1v_NgU8PITWbjwh4v_CqGIF_2RtQVJlpskyIqwnL52bQ5bn_r0OgpuhbpIzoZcwEfZ-4vgofQFhRuUDdN9_52ViAmSPp0poFmWBdhsfnrst78Dgvs-OhGDh_FkBRGCgoSJN18UlWzQNFJFUjA5-Xfx7PwtKM_e_CoTK7jxGGQAFl6vF-6pm/s957/2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="655" data-original-width="957" height="438" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8EM6O4Gh6J1v_NgU8PITWbjwh4v_CqGIF_2RtQVJlpskyIqwnL52bQ5bn_r0OgpuhbpIzoZcwEfZ-4vgofQFhRuUDdN9_52ViAmSPp0poFmWBdhsfnrst78Dgvs-OhGDh_FkBRGCgoSJN18UlWzQNFJFUjA5-Xfx7PwtKM_e_CoTK7jxGGQAFl6vF-6pm/w640-h438/2.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Have a great day!</div>Ross Janssenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09448734924733257676noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3466064543380551353.post-7027989927473366382024-01-04T08:02:00.002-06:002024-01-04T08:02:20.291-06:00Winter storms are lined up and ready to go<p><b>Winter storm #1:</b></p><p>Just diving into the active weather that is headed to the Plains. The first system isn't a huge concern because it is basically a snow event that will come straight down and provide some welcome moisture to the winter wheat crop. When all is said and done for Kansas, this is the water equivalent to the snow that's predicted for Kansas. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFYdnDuXHWiwwhyhc9ldy55y_OU_1Cdcz6Hy0mgNNfywGl0ejR71c6xIkMDVsRmTwVv0wD37ff-PIESkzmi_KdotIsHzOsfwuqEzgj8vhOtyhutUs6buH1H76QrBHiCXNv-CA9CyhhI-XchVZdKAkN0hVKfXCeTB8wHfmmfBRLSYjX8vi2TFYcvTlYsVco/s1920/WEB%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFYdnDuXHWiwwhyhc9ldy55y_OU_1Cdcz6Hy0mgNNfywGl0ejR71c6xIkMDVsRmTwVv0wD37ff-PIESkzmi_KdotIsHzOsfwuqEzgj8vhOtyhutUs6buH1H76QrBHiCXNv-CA9CyhhI-XchVZdKAkN0hVKfXCeTB8wHfmmfBRLSYjX8vi2TFYcvTlYsVco/w640-h360/WEB%201.png" width="640" /></a></div><p><b>Winter storm #2:</b></p><p>Following quick on its heels will be a more significant winter storm. We expect this to be an energetic storm with ample Gulf of Mexico moisture to interact with, setting the region up for more snow Monday/Tuesday. What does it mean for a storm to be "energetic"? If you look at the winds at upper levels (generally 18,000 feet or higher), you'll notice that area of pink or red immediately behind the "L". That strong wind will help to intensify the system into a very deep area of low pressure. This translates to strong winds near the ground at the height of the storm (expected to be Monday night/early Tuesday)</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnsmGeWcgeivxqCaXKmJmUCADsFbPubFBbMh7SYrX4zNBEz3O_BqG_8nG15nCpqYZ4zTqyapAD1rxgqi_0_Q8reDiyrzwnwykpttNmbROyujCAH-NtkLbTZ5RFriEpfDRgBPihmN0gKEGseCzk1wpRNE_qySQlUgrTzxnhdLEA4H0NF407JL0InT5p3gSL/s1920/Rosalia2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnsmGeWcgeivxqCaXKmJmUCADsFbPubFBbMh7SYrX4zNBEz3O_BqG_8nG15nCpqYZ4zTqyapAD1rxgqi_0_Q8reDiyrzwnwykpttNmbROyujCAH-NtkLbTZ5RFriEpfDRgBPihmN0gKEGseCzk1wpRNE_qySQlUgrTzxnhdLEA4H0NF407JL0InT5p3gSL/w640-h360/Rosalia2.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNLghMxtvJSdD_kOvrIYFgKJKk5Hr1ekeVvSlNi9wQPRNXwe-t1Nx4j2zpm5udNhqFUQUVEkdq8thdMaYIHcgrltZgA_f-eoiFaxYphhn0n2Px571yF_ss-_Ppltyf7GxaxEZOXgtZFfy5iY4MVRwvFCMvPIajNqirQgi_r9Lem6adVAj0sizwEtXUp0Dq/s1920/CW%203.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNLghMxtvJSdD_kOvrIYFgKJKk5Hr1ekeVvSlNi9wQPRNXwe-t1Nx4j2zpm5udNhqFUQUVEkdq8thdMaYIHcgrltZgA_f-eoiFaxYphhn0n2Px571yF_ss-_Ppltyf7GxaxEZOXgtZFfy5iY4MVRwvFCMvPIajNqirQgi_r9Lem6adVAj0sizwEtXUp0Dq/w640-h360/CW%203.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>Track of the storm is key too (we mention this a bunch on TV). In order for Kansas to end up in the "heavier" snow, the system needs to cross central or southern Oklahoma. This one coming up will most likely ride the Red River Valley, putting the area in a favorable spot for higher snow amounts. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSJA9jSv0ucsyghhxqgSvoIsjxN9pqXqfIDsCfmUqs-KCplRqtOm9nnGYgczOpoESR_0EMIhSZPy3wf6nMQ-8NI1zkWPCK39T4qbYq9c5UWImqa89FeEXmhO09q1XsFWQ0I7Pja0rJYkYHqQJdXoA49LzugHJLDLHBO7K35vGOQJFeWO4jeOpfTItyUqe6/s1920/OTT1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSJA9jSv0ucsyghhxqgSvoIsjxN9pqXqfIDsCfmUqs-KCplRqtOm9nnGYgczOpoESR_0EMIhSZPy3wf6nMQ-8NI1zkWPCK39T4qbYq9c5UWImqa89FeEXmhO09q1XsFWQ0I7Pja0rJYkYHqQJdXoA49LzugHJLDLHBO7K35vGOQJFeWO4jeOpfTItyUqe6/w640-h360/OTT1.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRuf0eHARKxqXIoD-aaAcwUPBcspneNqx7fMIJzYPKNiM8qLXauPPUoBslAqbxOLzEv9pL4HW5aw4WXW1Hp0CBLJjH76pNSP82WFPE6pqsP71I25-v7pHaZdsqwoXgwwSqMArsnXIb1SneqoPewxi9tPp3-jjKcY72Kx-tCfQeSFxWZuiiuu64dWWvJhJ3/s1920/OTT2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRuf0eHARKxqXIoD-aaAcwUPBcspneNqx7fMIJzYPKNiM8qLXauPPUoBslAqbxOLzEv9pL4HW5aw4WXW1Hp0CBLJjH76pNSP82WFPE6pqsP71I25-v7pHaZdsqwoXgwwSqMArsnXIb1SneqoPewxi9tPp3-jjKcY72Kx-tCfQeSFxWZuiiuu64dWWvJhJ3/w640-h360/OTT2.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYjl1kuPzcifvKlbA9nSFly5ko1_3ym4IKOUcuktg14QBNn2MRksd_MdHM1s48-2RX4Y9NrvHXH7zp-xGqkZvulyTsP5amvdMiZG7BILSggKHtOeX5rUe9Gi4bxatc6sLivdzYjsjb7FX5pTo148V536o2i9wNzEPPRwXXXS7mqsKGL_0vLdA37zUudwFQ/s1920/OTT3.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYjl1kuPzcifvKlbA9nSFly5ko1_3ym4IKOUcuktg14QBNn2MRksd_MdHM1s48-2RX4Y9NrvHXH7zp-xGqkZvulyTsP5amvdMiZG7BILSggKHtOeX5rUe9Gi4bxatc6sLivdzYjsjb7FX5pTo148V536o2i9wNzEPPRwXXXS7mqsKGL_0vLdA37zUudwFQ/w640-h360/OTT3.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>Given what we know now, the leading edge of the winter storm should begin Monday morning as a rain & snow combo. However, as the day continues on, the rain snow line should push east and I think by mid-afternoon Monday, most if not all of it coming down will be snow. The actual changeover time (in addition to everything else) can also help determine how much snow. <b>The low pressure system will move FAST, likely clearing the area in about 24 hours' time. </b>The graphic below shows where the snow accumulations will likely go.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBiMTOP-gXuJwbxpDjfH4yiGFK8ysEYKvwTVtJhfhCZTnc5clZm6_H537fZ7Dx9MPKNNp2HYXOD_XPTWyqJM1a_Ee4LzKlvr8SvsxK-s6Gmx4d1UBdLXYmOlTAvu7tUhydvleWvYveTF__yK3nNfk62Len5d-Wj-DkduT5USUvyUtZlaeJltykjGSKVvfl/s1920/AC%203.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBiMTOP-gXuJwbxpDjfH4yiGFK8ysEYKvwTVtJhfhCZTnc5clZm6_H537fZ7Dx9MPKNNp2HYXOD_XPTWyqJM1a_Ee4LzKlvr8SvsxK-s6Gmx4d1UBdLXYmOlTAvu7tUhydvleWvYveTF__yK3nNfk62Len5d-Wj-DkduT5USUvyUtZlaeJltykjGSKVvfl/w640-h360/AC%203.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p><b>Arctic air on the move! - </b>This will be headed to Kansas as we approach the second weekend of 2024. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdjTHXreUwttOcka1hZ2g47PUPCw9Bu1PSRFqSzSwNmEZdppYUOViSIbAZDVI9Konbg3ZMeUCh3P84vSQgs8N7BFJrR8cbrZoTcTgV-VAotLOVOPYs10cXYWZJEh5BAmdppymD9Wld5Uke6tr59hHFMALqbinPbpBDO9de1zCY6U-X9d2c-BbWHTYuUH2k/s1920/AC%209.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdjTHXreUwttOcka1hZ2g47PUPCw9Bu1PSRFqSzSwNmEZdppYUOViSIbAZDVI9Konbg3ZMeUCh3P84vSQgs8N7BFJrR8cbrZoTcTgV-VAotLOVOPYs10cXYWZJEh5BAmdppymD9Wld5Uke6tr59hHFMALqbinPbpBDO9de1zCY6U-X9d2c-BbWHTYuUH2k/w640-h360/AC%209.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>I think once we get into the last 10-12 days of the month, we will be on the other side of the coldest air of January. This period of bitter cold may be with us for a good week to 10 days.</p><p><b>January 13-20:</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXsG1nmGlmB-CQCt_QL8DlFKZ6jfOopd4S4AziGN4XzEG3JXDfu06LL7SlrhqEnyfCiDtq2fv34QODR2nXpAy83rgmfNQsbYHlK30XqaW8Rpd6pn_AN2LT8Onw054EDlzqgZq-OiTANtEx2lFa-P3TigMog3K00YqK9EHu9Fzk9s-xVWuzLsigp28c3lmD/s974/2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="680" data-original-width="974" height="446" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXsG1nmGlmB-CQCt_QL8DlFKZ6jfOopd4S4AziGN4XzEG3JXDfu06LL7SlrhqEnyfCiDtq2fv34QODR2nXpAy83rgmfNQsbYHlK30XqaW8Rpd6pn_AN2LT8Onw054EDlzqgZq-OiTANtEx2lFa-P3TigMog3K00YqK9EHu9Fzk9s-xVWuzLsigp28c3lmD/w640-h446/2.png" width="640" /></a></div><b><br /></b><p></p><p><b>January 20-27:</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj280Hv2CtAxxgT9lYYy3u3ss0rW6SDjNN6dMG2xWRw4wuh-2C3KyltffSY0oXANYnRjszzwgIpWkhSIKcBXnrSb48efyah6vJGz8d781oZbRZdJple9WpIYTnsWqqPqQcXOZj1cGgcXurY8WPP1Vj-nAjTAtfoqzKZUn53SPr8x0g4gXzLpw_LoM20gkaT/s983/Capture%201.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="688" data-original-width="983" height="448" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj280Hv2CtAxxgT9lYYy3u3ss0rW6SDjNN6dMG2xWRw4wuh-2C3KyltffSY0oXANYnRjszzwgIpWkhSIKcBXnrSb48efyah6vJGz8d781oZbRZdJple9WpIYTnsWqqPqQcXOZj1cGgcXurY8WPP1Vj-nAjTAtfoqzKZUn53SPr8x0g4gXzLpw_LoM20gkaT/w640-h448/Capture%201.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p><b>A glance at February:</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBcgnNV7f93pc-DI5bbiNu_PJQX_RnJgbYuP0aM13pc0t0cicp2cHlF51dKY1gUU0V2fYhdS6ZE7FL-42CReAuk3NKDNo-_UinSE_YLC6mVTobgVi0PviSt1zlCGZO9p-TCh8Lnhx15DaiwaFghN3kwJZCwW3g7y2zEraGwyH9e3Ev8xUn0bj3kOjN5nR0/s976/6.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="689" data-original-width="976" height="452" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBcgnNV7f93pc-DI5bbiNu_PJQX_RnJgbYuP0aM13pc0t0cicp2cHlF51dKY1gUU0V2fYhdS6ZE7FL-42CReAuk3NKDNo-_UinSE_YLC6mVTobgVi0PviSt1zlCGZO9p-TCh8Lnhx15DaiwaFghN3kwJZCwW3g7y2zEraGwyH9e3Ev8xUn0bj3kOjN5nR0/w640-h452/6.png" width="640" /></a></div><b><br /></b><p></p><p>Looks like the active weather will continue next month with more moisture coming up for the Plains. Models suggest above normal moisture (remembering that average in February is around .50-1")</p><p>Have a great day</p>Ross Janssenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09448734924733257676noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3466064543380551353.post-39853565890856862192023-12-29T07:32:00.000-06:002023-12-29T07:32:34.892-06:00January outlook - Arctic air watch<p> An early Happy New Year to you and thanks for spending a few minutes here catching up. You may not like what we have to showcase going into January, but when we issued the winter forecast, we said the coldest of the winter would be centered on January. And it does appear that the first big batch of Arctic air arrives very soon. I don't think it's record cold, but it could be around for a week or so, and my suspicion is the month (as a whole - averaged out) will be near or slightly below average on temperatures. </p><p><b>The next winter storm in the making?</b></p><p>Around January 9-12th, a rather large system should develop into the desert Southwest once again (we've seen a bunch of them this winter already). This should link up with higher pressures up over the north pole, which will allow the bitter cold to barge south into the US. See the map below and notice the "H" up over Greenland, and also look at the deep blue/green back in Utah and Nevada. That's what we believe will be the next winter storm to come through the region.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHsPu1vAVfjLurDuYQGh_dSKWWdh7unIMqPN6HruAyiaAE8DOTHvflS7aRjWBd1AUxehlicwqfLKmtn84wdZSTREREPLjIouEgMgNhuVgUBY6nujMtWazWcM_ldl7kWRa7NosweUw6rfW83BfO3VgDg7ALLJeW1aeJ5clEruyBqquO44IUwLQ-K-KKqkzD/s984/3.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="808" data-original-width="984" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHsPu1vAVfjLurDuYQGh_dSKWWdh7unIMqPN6HruAyiaAE8DOTHvflS7aRjWBd1AUxehlicwqfLKmtn84wdZSTREREPLjIouEgMgNhuVgUBY6nujMtWazWcM_ldl7kWRa7NosweUw6rfW83BfO3VgDg7ALLJeW1aeJ5clEruyBqquO44IUwLQ-K-KKqkzD/w640-h526/3.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>Obviously, the finer details are murky at best this far out, but I'd be ready for some really cold weather to settle in as we approach mid-January. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgU5ybXIOm6DnzJEX6pveAECPddDSJt0WAfIh3SgHRRfVsDBmsGUPDy1hNSoZPyAaiQI9BfbVDcjsfPuuHFNy6dpIOg2w-ZmQoL2rt_K6GUQVlBtQJ3r-mz2plA9XSFQcScDzFze_7DQCYtcK_UM4om3JEFy9safrnDfxdnKUj2_aPMfLqjRwePrUI3a5NS/s970/4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="689" data-original-width="970" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgU5ybXIOm6DnzJEX6pveAECPddDSJt0WAfIh3SgHRRfVsDBmsGUPDy1hNSoZPyAaiQI9BfbVDcjsfPuuHFNy6dpIOg2w-ZmQoL2rt_K6GUQVlBtQJ3r-mz2plA9XSFQcScDzFze_7DQCYtcK_UM4om3JEFy9safrnDfxdnKUj2_aPMfLqjRwePrUI3a5NS/w640-h454/4.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p><br /></p><p><b>Another factor</b> that deserves mention too is the Arctic Oscillation, which is quite negative over the next 30 days and beyond. When that happens, it does increase the potential of much colder stretches of weather to arrive (it's not always a guarantee), but usually is a telegraph for what's down the road. In this setup, higher pressure up over the pole allows the colder air to dislodge and head south. The line that we pay most attention to in the image below is the solid black line. All the way to the end of January, it's negative, so our chances of having a warm month ahead are very slim.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0F6-d-YH4nINj4ch9ooW9fDTuiumpy8a-avQAVMeWvZ9Gewl4U8TnwwmZSXuq_M5HJ4_dgmLrs-_7lDoa4QSaseDdVYxQJ9RAR4To2jTn3g2Fopiyz7XqYh1a3Zzoc1zYNMCGjdmQpgg8aVaQ2M0umF3_PPG96JW8gshBVmabIeJnAUdef9FtAd9193hP/s1920/OTT1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0F6-d-YH4nINj4ch9ooW9fDTuiumpy8a-avQAVMeWvZ9Gewl4U8TnwwmZSXuq_M5HJ4_dgmLrs-_7lDoa4QSaseDdVYxQJ9RAR4To2jTn3g2Fopiyz7XqYh1a3Zzoc1zYNMCGjdmQpgg8aVaQ2M0umF3_PPG96JW8gshBVmabIeJnAUdef9FtAd9193hP/w640-h360/OTT1.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5SP-VLxLnJGdmNSBlu7Qzs9jotMUiSbpSuAXNojcZrSMYnaUPh-HigmhVJr8nQ_fphUIc6VOHxVCNSKTseHi9EOYaIHehsn6qAK_okMOoeixeF_zcKrwd-eJq6UMSBfofhr2lb6YC9rM9cRISr-Yn-RB6mjWwC5cgtnn-JCVdU1dSuQhGLfPW5OcsCtcn/s1920/CW%203.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5SP-VLxLnJGdmNSBlu7Qzs9jotMUiSbpSuAXNojcZrSMYnaUPh-HigmhVJr8nQ_fphUIc6VOHxVCNSKTseHi9EOYaIHehsn6qAK_okMOoeixeF_zcKrwd-eJq6UMSBfofhr2lb6YC9rM9cRISr-Yn-RB6mjWwC5cgtnn-JCVdU1dSuQhGLfPW5OcsCtcn/w640-h360/CW%203.png" width="640" /></a></div><p><b>Here's a 32-day snow prediction off one of the computer models - </b>what's a bit interesting is just how much of the country could experience some snow in the upcoming month. The more we put down, the better the chances will be for the cold air to hang around longer. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXIIqYc9b9uxfMc2EmsIglTC_c3mampJ9rMTy45LB3_4XMeNAHRcA3BMTGpzMG6NjRGvzccQ6_KSt_WQJfBo-TQu2SGEcscbgiDta8ohCuZ8qoTBVdaexxukffI7wWtkTU9aAqff__KdhrVoZFdcrMYi0KgC_a-PQwhO8HL5gnhsRLllI3TkDsxaSd3iUc/s977/5.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="667" data-original-width="977" height="436" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXIIqYc9b9uxfMc2EmsIglTC_c3mampJ9rMTy45LB3_4XMeNAHRcA3BMTGpzMG6NjRGvzccQ6_KSt_WQJfBo-TQu2SGEcscbgiDta8ohCuZ8qoTBVdaexxukffI7wWtkTU9aAqff__KdhrVoZFdcrMYi0KgC_a-PQwhO8HL5gnhsRLllI3TkDsxaSd3iUc/w640-h436/5.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">If you're interested in January "norms", here they are. It's not necessarily the snowiest month of the year, but it is the month with the lowest average temperatures (you probably aren't surprised by that). The averages will start to go up mid-late month. We are also gaining daylight now that we have passed the solstice. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHlWn2rVNqUWMoFKaf-gbD39KWzrjU0Lys-QSffokHLDC17xpzKj2Wp73-YgRo5OC5bwnYPXLaU9eNYNREt42TUR4BgIDOJovhHSpxih6oO5KOILvoUDLHf-x8GOcTOwgLgB7YB7U8mO8xkggbP87J1IDUG1wztL4lA-yrpc-PDLRg9ezSwFoeOZAP20FR/s1920/AC%20%204.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHlWn2rVNqUWMoFKaf-gbD39KWzrjU0Lys-QSffokHLDC17xpzKj2Wp73-YgRo5OC5bwnYPXLaU9eNYNREt42TUR4BgIDOJovhHSpxih6oO5KOILvoUDLHf-x8GOcTOwgLgB7YB7U8mO8xkggbP87J1IDUG1wztL4lA-yrpc-PDLRg9ezSwFoeOZAP20FR/w640-h360/AC%20%204.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div>Ross Janssenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09448734924733257676noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3466064543380551353.post-84624757313987411742023-12-15T09:28:00.003-06:002023-12-15T09:28:25.727-06:00Winter is starting to show up - get readyWe've been enjoying some very mild weather for December, but it would appear this is about to change in the coming weeks. We still haven't had any Arctic air and this month is on pace to be a top 10 warmest around the state. Look at these stats as we hit the halfway point in December:<div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b>Goodland - 4th warmest</b></li><li><b>Salina - 7th warmest</b></li><li><b>Dodge City - 8th</b></li><li><b>Wichita - 9th</b></li></ul><div>Nearly the entire country is experiencing a very warm month so far, and I don't look for that to change much between now and year's end. It's been pretty strange. </div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjonLB1LnzQ8PjB4OvqDSQIU053XnfRMtyhB4fuWRJlTDQoCDWLS5So6jzEl-cLOrsbnV3mS3sj6rEqSt813xxbcz-A7o2g5oAnSQLjBYBAqdM0qkBWSEMl_gVUrhYsmBTKPOwgE9CqDfdNq3kHR2tmiwOTFnMVYEOwhgJU0JqzRjDXIDZHhStuJXSe9Gf1/s940/7.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="508" data-original-width="940" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjonLB1LnzQ8PjB4OvqDSQIU053XnfRMtyhB4fuWRJlTDQoCDWLS5So6jzEl-cLOrsbnV3mS3sj6rEqSt813xxbcz-A7o2g5oAnSQLjBYBAqdM0qkBWSEMl_gVUrhYsmBTKPOwgE9CqDfdNq3kHR2tmiwOTFnMVYEOwhgJU0JqzRjDXIDZHhStuJXSe9Gf1/w640-h346/7.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Couple of things to watch:</div><div><b>Arctic oscillation:</b> This can sometimes be the first clue of a major shift toward warm or colder trends. We've covered this before, but a "positive" Arctic oscillation indicates less cold reaching us from the polar region, while "negative" AO values suggest a better chance of an Arctic invasion. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwfq0b35cN2GrMFi77VTQo75dCTtpvsQPj4JEvzeXKCwykh62el9L8LCsOYoMGLX6qGCX_fRR-x8ASl98ddfCkqD74d0UhNAYAhaL9o5ll486Sp9dfk8gzMwhZACcqQPV-9Ij15a0_zqBJOef9Me9m6cHy6JOSD-1QdqfXrI4cZ87V-dDCa4XBy7EX3l1S/s967/6.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="626" data-original-width="967" height="414" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwfq0b35cN2GrMFi77VTQo75dCTtpvsQPj4JEvzeXKCwykh62el9L8LCsOYoMGLX6qGCX_fRR-x8ASl98ddfCkqD74d0UhNAYAhaL9o5ll486Sp9dfk8gzMwhZACcqQPV-9Ij15a0_zqBJOef9Me9m6cHy6JOSD-1QdqfXrI4cZ87V-dDCa4XBy7EX3l1S/w640-h414/6.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>What are we seeing now? It's been pretty positive lately, but a trend to negative shows up into the early days of 2024. Will it be an abrupt shift or a gradual easing? My suspicion is that we will ease into the colder weather, and even if we do see some Arctic air coming in, they may be brief bouts of it. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Building high pressure in western Canada:</b></div><div>If we see high pressure (or a ridge) going up in western Canada into early January, that could easily signal an invasion of bitterly cold air coming into the lower 48. This setup has not been a reality yet in December, but a shift to this may happen in the coming weeks. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1Q8D2tD6BaJS6gJ0I5iLggnooRdt4DiPiHdud-vWRQ-wc4cVySBbnJSAVwS5rwh-5x7SOO2Z-9jipNm2l4sVnMw2Zh0XvICg3YCVzjcliDXLm02quTwVRUflWZGVDqgsRpYHZtNkuAGTutgbQBzrzrZy5UD0R4MGGZWF2dg_uUGnydYt4NMxmtX1UeYG_/s977/1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="694" data-original-width="977" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1Q8D2tD6BaJS6gJ0I5iLggnooRdt4DiPiHdud-vWRQ-wc4cVySBbnJSAVwS5rwh-5x7SOO2Z-9jipNm2l4sVnMw2Zh0XvICg3YCVzjcliDXLm02quTwVRUflWZGVDqgsRpYHZtNkuAGTutgbQBzrzrZy5UD0R4MGGZWF2dg_uUGnydYt4NMxmtX1UeYG_/w640-h454/1.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">All of this leading to a forecast map that looks like this for early January:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXKUrFwG-BHhpWiJyBQ5wfpg3Io38HS9H_sJpSj_lyj_XAdzM4xpBE9Czx5qc8IJ8xQV4HIGSPoGRYRO1ULa4-8qgvXwoxwO6mYyZrUvHyh_8UWUybhw7vaCYl5EKzS3UcJ8vz83P9sRkz8peFJClVlfUXPv6IdYb2MNac96npY2E2j-u4N54LPn0rhinj/s965/3.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="685" data-original-width="965" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXKUrFwG-BHhpWiJyBQ5wfpg3Io38HS9H_sJpSj_lyj_XAdzM4xpBE9Czx5qc8IJ8xQV4HIGSPoGRYRO1ULa4-8qgvXwoxwO6mYyZrUvHyh_8UWUybhw7vaCYl5EKzS3UcJ8vz83P9sRkz8peFJClVlfUXPv6IdYb2MNac96npY2E2j-u4N54LPn0rhinj/w640-h454/3.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">And here's another preview of mid-late January:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5_-LSNdOwG1NIO6YPdXVztmRxj3QZpvevZsrAoEG2MgztQZMLjvjMD8MyWIpK3AxZoAsbz1qjWwMbZplhgAzuQqZidKtM2_yUst0xEHThDX_EFKCDgI4rHPyfNbcd7w1OBWKNLPVNafrUSGqMddFpmPBaJTxLPUuJWAqbuSGOOuaIAMuIkSoTl_AOVGAX/s944/5.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="677" data-original-width="944" height="458" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5_-LSNdOwG1NIO6YPdXVztmRxj3QZpvevZsrAoEG2MgztQZMLjvjMD8MyWIpK3AxZoAsbz1qjWwMbZplhgAzuQqZidKtM2_yUst0xEHThDX_EFKCDgI4rHPyfNbcd7w1OBWKNLPVNafrUSGqMddFpmPBaJTxLPUuJWAqbuSGOOuaIAMuIkSoTl_AOVGAX/w640-h458/5.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div>Of course, the southern branch of the jet stream (also known as the sub-tropical jet) will remain active too, bringing more moisture off the Pacific and right into the desert Southwest and across the southern Plains. This is classic of El Nino setups, but will the bitter cold from the north meet up with the moisture coming across the south? </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Heads up for a post-Christmas storm:</b></div><div>While we won't have a white Christmas this year, just beyond the holiday we will have another low pressure tracking across the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains. If you are going to be traveling around the holiday, consider this early heads up to some active weather. I don't think it will be a big winter storm (given the lack of widespread cold), but we have to watch and wait. The model image below highlights the wet weather from California to Plains and deep South. Those green colors represent above average moisture (in much of Kansas, this is .50-1" ABOVE), so could easily be a pretty wet system coming on through. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDtOCAE79TXXsRn7vV5TY8r1oMqq7P8UMeo4r308gP0yI3vshDmsDkP6V09rIh6r60kWTrsi0FBP3ABjhnof37BkHq9RRWMxqWYTFN2ezG8jv41TW4423vkm1JxYBYY_UTrbbtuyyArM64YVgc4gTthljn5PRhXuedj4af8ZlMQD7WU3vKv1GDvX9r_RDR/s933/Capture%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="687" data-original-width="933" height="472" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDtOCAE79TXXsRn7vV5TY8r1oMqq7P8UMeo4r308gP0yI3vshDmsDkP6V09rIh6r60kWTrsi0FBP3ABjhnof37BkHq9RRWMxqWYTFN2ezG8jv41TW4423vkm1JxYBYY_UTrbbtuyyArM64YVgc4gTthljn5PRhXuedj4af8ZlMQD7WU3vKv1GDvX9r_RDR/w640-h472/Capture%201.png" width="640" /></a></div><div>Have a great day and thanks for spending a few minutes here. </div>Ross Janssenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09448734924733257676noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3466064543380551353.post-19505684396170384972023-12-08T07:30:00.003-06:002023-12-08T07:30:57.303-06:00Winter Forecast 2023-24This winter forecast might seem late because we already had a nice snow event right after Thanksgiving. Considering we are just a week in on meteorological winter and the solstice isn't until the 21st, we still have the entire season ahead of us. You've probably seen a few winter forecasts out there floating around, probably on the social platforms, but I think it's important you hear from us what our thoughts are going into the season. <div><br /></div><div><b>Overall:</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtgGvmSerTRgfIuIYkUn1qfZeC3XWR5p7P8RQqB03NQGFtJSaHvncqhx0MO4LoTdsDgva97gO5k859GkJvaVzwvF4mo3l9RS8ypmJM87nr909QTPLh66qDJJHwL3EgHTcXL4hfdZ_kBR3B33dJyvuoigjxii08HXBFpxA19LXr_-IJ0_Y7TV3ynetW9SKH/s1920/Capture%208.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtgGvmSerTRgfIuIYkUn1qfZeC3XWR5p7P8RQqB03NQGFtJSaHvncqhx0MO4LoTdsDgva97gO5k859GkJvaVzwvF4mo3l9RS8ypmJM87nr909QTPLh66qDJJHwL3EgHTcXL4hfdZ_kBR3B33dJyvuoigjxii08HXBFpxA19LXr_-IJ0_Y7TV3ynetW9SKH/w640-h360/Capture%208.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>I don't think this winter is going to be that cold at all. I'm fairly certain we will make it through December with no Arctic air at all. It's amazing. Even as we write this up, looking up into central Canada of all places, nighttime temperatures are in the teens. That's not Arctic air and it will be several more weeks before we even see a chance of it coming this way. </div><div><br /></div><div>I do believe the heart of the cold is focused over January this winter. You might be saying "isn't it always that way?" Just remember two years ago in February of 2021, we had two full weeks of sub-freezing weather. It went all the way to the Deep South and is something we still talk about today. And there are years where the worst of the cold comes in December, and then it's a cake walk in January and February. Whatever Arctic air we get this winter should be fairly brief episodes, but again, January looks cold. February looks a bit milder (or "less cold").</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikWK8RU7sSWiAvlhREjYdLy0sfS55zPQPLLACJjj_I4VnShxxpNQoOZLCrnwrgx2mKyzzakt42EtdnDTx7411XXmeez-vuKU8YbWlFXlY_PVBpH5rctMXDmLQg1PJvWhYVnP9DH9n9O7loG3sMXCq5Zb2L3G_CT1xkqjw87DXsakT5iqdNpqFpDDKdH6CS/s1920/Capture%202.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikWK8RU7sSWiAvlhREjYdLy0sfS55zPQPLLACJjj_I4VnShxxpNQoOZLCrnwrgx2mKyzzakt42EtdnDTx7411XXmeez-vuKU8YbWlFXlY_PVBpH5rctMXDmLQg1PJvWhYVnP9DH9n9O7loG3sMXCq5Zb2L3G_CT1xkqjw87DXsakT5iqdNpqFpDDKdH6CS/w640-h360/Capture%202.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><b>What's the biggest driver of the winter forecast?</b></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWoMvx9d3yWVPQHrPCL1TBfEMneb4fLj4oDbromZnPFa_MjDUy35RsF8OM2HS9qetUiCLpIqYuHODOt5n2c5cJ423HvXjZAHWpDjXdfXS5HRlsezUx5EwsobFljYt-XBYzIIMi1t0sO7SBnCMU-PJHr7EtXKV0Tpv8W9LoMlPN5SLTVLnnMNkxrT1P3Tk3/s1920/Capture%206.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWoMvx9d3yWVPQHrPCL1TBfEMneb4fLj4oDbromZnPFa_MjDUy35RsF8OM2HS9qetUiCLpIqYuHODOt5n2c5cJ423HvXjZAHWpDjXdfXS5HRlsezUx5EwsobFljYt-XBYzIIMi1t0sO7SBnCMU-PJHr7EtXKV0Tpv8W9LoMlPN5SLTVLnnMNkxrT1P3Tk3/w640-h360/Capture%206.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /></div><div>It's El Niño and I'm guessing most of you have heard it referenced before. Last year at this time, it was La Niña, and the two can be confusing. El Niño is warmer than average water along the Equator in the Pacific and La Niña is the opposite. In an unusual scenario, we had 3 back-to-back years of La Niña which are notorious for summer droughts and prolonged heat waves. Now that El Niño is here, odds tend to be in our favor of getting more moisture. The map below shows what a typical El Niño winter does for precipitation in Kansas, but this is an average and not necessarily what this winter will do. <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMYSWCjBs7eG-SS1d-_JopXi406rkp0nop_gaxtpyx3cPySicY0Uq82ndl9yHqR8wTcVDEZ9ketlUbNGu50jUwMqbuygS-1Tx-xyPZH7K3yvM8FkY47UhGUMAxfdXKMFDb04f0-OvEQ3B9Fw00d_zLEuLW6i0zU0mgA7MMfwyg7pRHFk4GHwyjPcILfP1q/s1920/Capture%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMYSWCjBs7eG-SS1d-_JopXi406rkp0nop_gaxtpyx3cPySicY0Uq82ndl9yHqR8wTcVDEZ9ketlUbNGu50jUwMqbuygS-1Tx-xyPZH7K3yvM8FkY47UhGUMAxfdXKMFDb04f0-OvEQ3B9Fw00d_zLEuLW6i0zU0mgA7MMfwyg7pRHFk4GHwyjPcILfP1q/w640-h360/Capture%201.png" width="640" /></a></div></div><div><br /></div><div>This El Niño is a strong one, as the water temperatures (in the green box) are running about 2°C above average. It's not historic, but at that level, there should be a pretty solid influence on the jet stream well into spring (and maybe beyond). The last El Niño of this magnitude (or stronger) was back in 2015-16.</div><div><br /></div><div>One other considering factor is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which also deals with warm and cool water in the Pacific (hence the name). Cool water along the North American coastline and warmer water in the North Pacific is a "negative" PDO - that happens to be the phase we are currently in. In the graph below, you'll see how it bounces back and forth, and this year a negative PDO and an El Niño are happening together. We don't have much history on the two happening together, but in the few cases that we do have, winter snowfall was higher than average. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigmO1xJAHyzw0RpaghLK3BbTPsv593nbvdPGrmtkguEepHLf88tzS6f-QcKhZlgxpHjPR8URyKNM1hIZMYx595KH92HXmW01wNox1k1ie-aRGp2Cx5ixzuR9ARCNnGIAlY33DYk4Oi0stZOQfVGREmEDk7T7WD7-4Gx3aGaGkovGdi1Kz22YQord_Wr2vZ/s1111/Capture%201.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="411" data-original-width="1111" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigmO1xJAHyzw0RpaghLK3BbTPsv593nbvdPGrmtkguEepHLf88tzS6f-QcKhZlgxpHjPR8URyKNM1hIZMYx595KH92HXmW01wNox1k1ie-aRGp2Cx5ixzuR9ARCNnGIAlY33DYk4Oi0stZOQfVGREmEDk7T7WD7-4Gx3aGaGkovGdi1Kz22YQord_Wr2vZ/w640-h236/Capture%201.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div><b>Other takeaways:</b></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxjOfY-ZoP5tN4mvzgp9KfCPQ1bXEA_Ji9IzksWBaZgWljznnEA6SZL2E-Li0Kgj88TDXX7aQfZUNExwJPpz1ykzvZg-phGPp2k9fIpv-mty4lZtws9ynQMytsG7VL6kHPmGZ2iXPEvC_TOGzQF0cGtlcZDTQA8zIDixxM5UV9WHJlGgVVmaxTv6orKnYf/s1920/Capture%207.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxjOfY-ZoP5tN4mvzgp9KfCPQ1bXEA_Ji9IzksWBaZgWljznnEA6SZL2E-Li0Kgj88TDXX7aQfZUNExwJPpz1ykzvZg-phGPp2k9fIpv-mty4lZtws9ynQMytsG7VL6kHPmGZ2iXPEvC_TOGzQF0cGtlcZDTQA8zIDixxM5UV9WHJlGgVVmaxTv6orKnYf/w640-h360/Capture%207.png" width="640" /></a></div></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div>A very active southern branch of the jet stream seems inevitable, and it already appears underway. Kansas is likely going to be on the northern fringe of it, so look for the better moisture (and more significant drought removal) to be in the southern half of the state this winter. This is also where the better snowfall will probably be this winter.</div><div><br /></div><div>There is another piece of the winter pattern that will bring some milder/warmer stretches of weather. When Alaska is getting snow and much colder weather, we will likely have a warmer setup in the Plains and the northern Plains. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjw43ToMK3e2PM_J5Z2uXCdPUje3cRqBriNoFgY1fuFOEgB003izZH0vetOFFftJtm5MSU5REYHhzhTPlFDmjq3krxfzlgOdFeEij9z0NPORL79AGYsRzdGsQ4hN-h_LpOzQv4njGXBAqTxLC2u9NNEVWzv3xxnp6Dpkg6Qg0xADP1vunDfufD81S-lOAfC/s1920/Capture%209.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjw43ToMK3e2PM_J5Z2uXCdPUje3cRqBriNoFgY1fuFOEgB003izZH0vetOFFftJtm5MSU5REYHhzhTPlFDmjq3krxfzlgOdFeEij9z0NPORL79AGYsRzdGsQ4hN-h_LpOzQv4njGXBAqTxLC2u9NNEVWzv3xxnp6Dpkg6Qg0xADP1vunDfufD81S-lOAfC/w640-h360/Capture%209.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Just for fun:</b></div><div>I compiled past El Niño winters (including the weak ones) and what the snowfall amounts were for Wichita, Goodland, and Dodge City. See for yourself - the amounts are highly variable. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Wichita:</b></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrVGsqgTycJSF2QA_OuogEWrLsdfmv-8mnL12XdE5m8WGygffjjKHn-yiU04xnouA01upQnfJyM58nNhxtSdf1FyQGxl59Pps2cXBJEGh2c8LjmoR5RrUVRBTzQ4YheNXWDNjBIEVMlbksJGnaedGFCRTofYdzeBdEsK_f-nh4zThLNA6GTb4w3IQJ8eaL/s1920/Capture%203.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrVGsqgTycJSF2QA_OuogEWrLsdfmv-8mnL12XdE5m8WGygffjjKHn-yiU04xnouA01upQnfJyM58nNhxtSdf1FyQGxl59Pps2cXBJEGh2c8LjmoR5RrUVRBTzQ4YheNXWDNjBIEVMlbksJGnaedGFCRTofYdzeBdEsK_f-nh4zThLNA6GTb4w3IQJ8eaL/w640-h360/Capture%203.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /></div><div><b>Goodland:</b></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdb6CtUK0x1rNttdojCCQnwT_tgsQBPC-rszLKDm6QHK8XxrDObjot8NCt7-F_pkc89hF6EUDpMVT3ktdUpFm0gzeZ2-VP6nl2OVe79Egc68YVj2Ug1BJkkbouIeHOD3ZcWx8Gb6J2zznPv87MANyKXl2VW5iP8Ha5r1x543VtcbuZ6WH5ZcaGqkYlSCi7/s1920/Capture%204.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdb6CtUK0x1rNttdojCCQnwT_tgsQBPC-rszLKDm6QHK8XxrDObjot8NCt7-F_pkc89hF6EUDpMVT3ktdUpFm0gzeZ2-VP6nl2OVe79Egc68YVj2Ug1BJkkbouIeHOD3ZcWx8Gb6J2zznPv87MANyKXl2VW5iP8Ha5r1x543VtcbuZ6WH5ZcaGqkYlSCi7/w640-h360/Capture%204.png" width="640" /></a></div></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Dodge City:</b></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcnIuEi_QxO3ME6-vjzLrPqs26AEjP4Resp01arol03Zpi98jJayn7xKAttIFMJmEoZIeBV35WPtdg_uiegR4XIRsFK6yWDg4wUiAMU1uq5akdWTZApERF8NmrzLGlFVTD7tluJCKfdCOrg4SWpuxRfyLhVFz3Wh8KJvLv_AYlYiKNNqG4Osv_Jv776Bas/s1920/Capture%205.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcnIuEi_QxO3ME6-vjzLrPqs26AEjP4Resp01arol03Zpi98jJayn7xKAttIFMJmEoZIeBV35WPtdg_uiegR4XIRsFK6yWDg4wUiAMU1uq5akdWTZApERF8NmrzLGlFVTD7tluJCKfdCOrg4SWpuxRfyLhVFz3Wh8KJvLv_AYlYiKNNqG4Osv_Jv776Bas/w640-h360/Capture%205.png" width="640" /></a></div><b><br /></b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>What do the seasonal model forecasts have:</b></div><div>The warmth of December and nighttime lows will likely contribute most to the warmth that you see in the map below. Arctic air will find its way to Kansas, but as mentioned above, they will probably be short lived. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9FdWJ06cQe8PC7vArXZqv4tqhyphenhyphenIX8HyNRJoXxL_NXzpHN7dXWAz3yqyLrp0jYy60Aft0VhrWXrbz6e6zU1L8rlJ4-LBPHdH_sXDaW84-VtUqf6hnAF_2ommcQZQwyd5itRahU74hAHfGjcHpDkuiz9FAmO9bXvf1xESOhXTcUNWr2elIuGSrRyqk3QjGk/w640-h454/5.PNG" width="640" /></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Precipitation:</b></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaiy58XYNFFaT3AdrGazpmHj1u_gaOJdeEWrj16pUQA3u216kMvNBsTpN4GpAIOXpWweKcSkA3K3XGEdEsKfCs_I-2SWDIgi7ZVOxfnyPDXJl79yp-Ub5zcjvGX8CLcy2oMhedX1KTBJ43561gMocE3tEutM6hj7bLggjL2BPdgKgNlGO6Et_1CuxQaUoc/s974/8.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="682" data-original-width="974" height="448" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaiy58XYNFFaT3AdrGazpmHj1u_gaOJdeEWrj16pUQA3u216kMvNBsTpN4GpAIOXpWweKcSkA3K3XGEdEsKfCs_I-2SWDIgi7ZVOxfnyPDXJl79yp-Ub5zcjvGX8CLcy2oMhedX1KTBJ43561gMocE3tEutM6hj7bLggjL2BPdgKgNlGO6Et_1CuxQaUoc/w640-h448/8.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><b><br /></b></div><div>More classic El Nino signatures here with above average moisture forecast for the central Plains. I would be a little suspicious of northern Kansas being "above", but there's reason to be hopeful this winter provides enough moisture to keep the drought from rapid expansion (and in some cases, it should even improve).</div><div><br /></div>Ross Janssenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09448734924733257676noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3466064543380551353.post-68113001029755264432023-11-30T07:55:00.002-06:002023-11-30T07:55:30.029-06:00December outlook & daylight saving time revisited<p>Meteorological fall comes to a close and it's been an interesting ride over the last 3 months. Just some of the highlights (or lowlights - depending on where you are reading this from) include:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-BXZZMbxJmt9b2dteipUiKZMp-0eCnB-LhT4A5bhX9A312tAfSUqth5KjGcV470sRLgRj64pIqDM88F6WUn-MoBv17wh_2Pwp6oFmrJl0vnSleDScZoJSj5sAO1tU09saeIFjS8do9CV8K3ALicAMXJ-m9SCzy2DAzPkl6NEEZG-15uzM1KTJyQ_wy571/s1920/CW%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-BXZZMbxJmt9b2dteipUiKZMp-0eCnB-LhT4A5bhX9A312tAfSUqth5KjGcV470sRLgRj64pIqDM88F6WUn-MoBv17wh_2Pwp6oFmrJl0vnSleDScZoJSj5sAO1tU09saeIFjS8do9CV8K3ALicAMXJ-m9SCzy2DAzPkl6NEEZG-15uzM1KTJyQ_wy571/w640-h360/CW%201.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>Most of the records mentioned above are all due to one large-scale system (post-Thanksgiving) that had ample moisture and just enough cold air.</p><p><b>December outlook:</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjyLMx8Y7cO6TDXQ0-x40KhhJx4gmUHSX8djr2DoCkM0dOUWaK0Zq5C2WEGR-yCPGzMplb98QlWGpq0-8C-zSOTH86nofUs8bn1Vs-W2JNC5LkXWNt5oerTGCtZnEfV4GEyiZJNpOvlv4VaqCkrnQGzAt4Rz3ul_lgDFJeAzhvFz9ZIaFaKvjJOV_GKlH7/s1920/CW%202.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjyLMx8Y7cO6TDXQ0-x40KhhJx4gmUHSX8djr2DoCkM0dOUWaK0Zq5C2WEGR-yCPGzMplb98QlWGpq0-8C-zSOTH86nofUs8bn1Vs-W2JNC5LkXWNt5oerTGCtZnEfV4GEyiZJNpOvlv4VaqCkrnQGzAt4Rz3ul_lgDFJeAzhvFz9ZIaFaKvjJOV_GKlH7/w640-h360/CW%202.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>By now you probably know or have heard that the beginning of the new month looks WARM. And I have a strong suspicion this is how December will turn out too (as a whole). Look what happens to the overall jet stream setup for the first week in December:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhj94CvI4tSWDbf4PdptUMPUkatvqy0HBfDBHi9RuaVJUvyFr3LxRutJZrvJCxNTcuNC7qHX9-te5kJM3gDUM1DgpzQj9e5CmbPHBxUZRXOHnVzKQ9RAriG_Tsr-sTUIolop_DGPDiXcUlg1YfyWVaJd12BjcCB5sk9iI0xTv1gL98C7drTqUZrvnmzUs-Q/s1920/WEB%202.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhj94CvI4tSWDbf4PdptUMPUkatvqy0HBfDBHi9RuaVJUvyFr3LxRutJZrvJCxNTcuNC7qHX9-te5kJM3gDUM1DgpzQj9e5CmbPHBxUZRXOHnVzKQ9RAriG_Tsr-sTUIolop_DGPDiXcUlg1YfyWVaJd12BjcCB5sk9iI0xTv1gL98C7drTqUZrvnmzUs-Q/w640-h360/WEB%202.png" width="640" /></a></div>By forcing the jet that far north, our chances at moisture come to a halt and temperatures will soar for several days. It's not necessarily a record warm pattern, but most days will be warmer than one might expect for December. And it will be that way over much of the country. You'll see plenty of 50 and 60° days ahead.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjT0sGIUcRU-FkFqOSFBordljoMLQeqqbyk-9Se_DO45jUJPc8F5kYQpfeVj2AayJpsV_bYfKoosv54d88aVDe9lsf6kneyZ3FsB0El92TmPVxSSMKVDkC9jwoSGLTuRl0wNUByiwb0TMoHbWkZBnoGDNdpbkbTruobwMc5hFOohsKQ9Ogfu-1U3cFANvEs/s1920/Rosalia1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjT0sGIUcRU-FkFqOSFBordljoMLQeqqbyk-9Se_DO45jUJPc8F5kYQpfeVj2AayJpsV_bYfKoosv54d88aVDe9lsf6kneyZ3FsB0El92TmPVxSSMKVDkC9jwoSGLTuRl0wNUByiwb0TMoHbWkZBnoGDNdpbkbTruobwMc5hFOohsKQ9Ogfu-1U3cFANvEs/w640-h360/Rosalia1.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>In the second week of the month, look for the warmth to begin easing as cold fronts get stronger once again. The warmth will move east as more active weather comes into the western US. I just don't see Arctic air diving south on a large scale, but a cooler trend looks to be in the works just beyond the first week of December. The area blue from the Rockies west clearly highlights where the more widespread rounds of rain and snow will be shaping up as a persistent train of low pressure systems make their way into the West.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhDtkq6MDLtIdh10DPfkcyAzbPPwTc4ijJ18ShbUZr6Ud_bLqn-myWfY-WalhKWefjrjHg008WToTSFcrOvfst2X9NqStKcahW0A1cJi_scrfAE91E8J6Jo77Akm9PB94SlruA_Koh8DJcZPesW0C6OFLnfQ_JZzOd8SORVHUFSAEKKAdGjSjwKuHL6qiX/s972/1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="687" data-original-width="972" height="452" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhDtkq6MDLtIdh10DPfkcyAzbPPwTc4ijJ18ShbUZr6Ud_bLqn-myWfY-WalhKWefjrjHg008WToTSFcrOvfst2X9NqStKcahW0A1cJi_scrfAE91E8J6Jo77Akm9PB94SlruA_Koh8DJcZPesW0C6OFLnfQ_JZzOd8SORVHUFSAEKKAdGjSjwKuHL6qiX/w640-h452/1.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>3rd week of December - most of the significant warmth has been removed, but still not overwhelmingly cold for the Plains states.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlQf1cvSfOCkYLK-DPN_vc-P-pcTO7xwFUoMzCFzEzqyazWYwfUfHs0mZwxSubuKjLLGAZ88uK-fd_KHeOl6B-lDhvJMOeQgVMglJhFs-GmL5VBlJ64pUBhBJkwiWWpFmwR3V71tCTli2VEGj-mfIOp6mM6gY9pLGjgoI2IQuJjRvnkjlKowbU2-v32tdA/s954/2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="684" data-original-width="954" height="458" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlQf1cvSfOCkYLK-DPN_vc-P-pcTO7xwFUoMzCFzEzqyazWYwfUfHs0mZwxSubuKjLLGAZ88uK-fd_KHeOl6B-lDhvJMOeQgVMglJhFs-GmL5VBlJ64pUBhBJkwiWWpFmwR3V71tCTli2VEGj-mfIOp6mM6gY9pLGjgoI2IQuJjRvnkjlKowbU2-v32tdA/w640-h458/2.png" width="640" /></a></div>Don't expect much (if any) moisture for early December. The pattern coming up isn't helpful, but we do find ourselves getting back into an active setup as we move toward mid-December and beyond. This doesn't mean we are destined for a White Christmas, but a few things working in our favor include colder weather returning for Christmas and what should be a steady stream of active weather coming through the southern Plains at that time. I'd say the chances are better this year than in any given year, but getting everything to line up just right is tough.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDnm22W5yYzAVTmDITlISVx930KN7tRpBjwsDu4pCssB5WHR2iZXR3fUAF0XVZzKyeGAbfaiu8VzMyu27cUUmQiRpQ6Wf15YvmtFkdv-ePBY8qfhc7PRtEUpsUPBuW7Pk-e61UIwPUsGVGWJfJ_5oEW7dywlIsvmzIiwTRI1GYFY7Ku5j_eZrw3ip8mnxP/s949/3.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="687" data-original-width="949" height="464" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDnm22W5yYzAVTmDITlISVx930KN7tRpBjwsDu4pCssB5WHR2iZXR3fUAF0XVZzKyeGAbfaiu8VzMyu27cUUmQiRpQ6Wf15YvmtFkdv-ePBY8qfhc7PRtEUpsUPBuW7Pk-e61UIwPUsGVGWJfJ_5oEW7dywlIsvmzIiwTRI1GYFY7Ku5j_eZrw3ip8mnxP/w640-h464/3.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Here's a 30 day snowfall map (I don't put much value in these, but they can be fun to look at if nothing else):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNxM7RNZ3yf47zjcQkDDwTcdywrm6_fWF3eojgJIvKORoOm66M77D07_3ijn6IjRRWjjkyloyGuKcHyUGlWZUOoFMjoAFA4krChY7O_V2H3rwKPYX3lD-SgS-kdAHlChYnHb4TTaRFEScwtMPLX0nmFQvpS0s67nSlacXzb1-mT1bpNCLgf0kA9a-87YTX/s974/2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="699" data-original-width="974" height="460" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNxM7RNZ3yf47zjcQkDDwTcdywrm6_fWF3eojgJIvKORoOm66M77D07_3ijn6IjRRWjjkyloyGuKcHyUGlWZUOoFMjoAFA4krChY7O_V2H3rwKPYX3lD-SgS-kdAHlChYnHb4TTaRFEScwtMPLX0nmFQvpS0s67nSlacXzb1-mT1bpNCLgf0kA9a-87YTX/w640-h460/2.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>Finally - December moisture as a whole:</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Look like a decent chance at having average to above average moisture (see the graphic at the top for what is "normal" rainfall & snow). As El Nino continues to provide opportunities for the southern storm track to remain juiced up, we have reason to remain optimistic about our precipitation chances.</div><div><div><br /></div><div><b>Revisiting sunrise/sunset times & if we didn't change clocks:</b></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjytSCHIZsVuJLZ2MdMlEYpqrgROU9yhPNK_KggYN9CSxrJpw1FI-2YLmTmgw1InmpFt5vURU8ja7xy5mF3wpVTIabvbcxu25NRIogm6Fe-XY0vU6cF0kmR3giEW6iM93AgAmEqhBjX3Bjk4Ld5HC1J4CvKmAfU5A9eLGruvcn5cCeRnOTbAkj-bKC0uSD6/s1920/AC%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjytSCHIZsVuJLZ2MdMlEYpqrgROU9yhPNK_KggYN9CSxrJpw1FI-2YLmTmgw1InmpFt5vURU8ja7xy5mF3wpVTIabvbcxu25NRIogm6Fe-XY0vU6cF0kmR3giEW6iM93AgAmEqhBjX3Bjk4Ld5HC1J4CvKmAfU5A9eLGruvcn5cCeRnOTbAkj-bKC0uSD6/w640-h360/AC%201.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /></div><div>Nobody talks about it this time of year because we are a month into the new time (Standard Time began back in early November). Since we are reaching the point where our sunset is as early as it gets during the year, and almost at the point where our sunrise is at its latest, what if we didn't change clocks? Bottom line, it would be very dark very late into the morning. We wouldn't have any daylight until well after 8am, with a sunrise not until 8:44am. We'd have more light in the evening, of course, but mornings would be dark. You just have to ask yourself where you'd prefer your extra daylight. Everyone has a different opinion on it and no matter what lawmakers decide, it won't please everyone - kinda like the weather, right?</div><div><br /></div><div>Have a great day.<br /><div><br /></div></div></div>Ross Janssenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09448734924733257676noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3466064543380551353.post-18082669377123410532023-11-22T22:43:00.004-06:002023-11-22T22:43:44.118-06:00Weekend storm update - more active days to come<p>Hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday (or had a great holiday, depending on when you read this). There's so much to be grateful for, not the least of which was the most recent round of moisture. I know it's still a bit of a touchy subject given that some just haven't had any good rain at all. Take for example, Goodland. On track to have a top 10 driest falls on record:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjo8-9Onhyphenhyphend9qfDTkgIhX36s1HdGwZxcKtcKlEsSzW1fcpf-xcVAq12ToPNUW-eC4PlJTl6ectMohQtcoiywA-9Z0jXSXqy3Xh3COpeeVK6EtJbdShi_NtooQDZVKCCT9_oGjtwhZ0lldyJU5ZqXQflOEZJ93oU_UGbzXzsai5ajKc3caVYyvBnaF__pemV/s1920/Capture%202.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjo8-9Onhyphenhyphend9qfDTkgIhX36s1HdGwZxcKtcKlEsSzW1fcpf-xcVAq12ToPNUW-eC4PlJTl6ectMohQtcoiywA-9Z0jXSXqy3Xh3COpeeVK6EtJbdShi_NtooQDZVKCCT9_oGjtwhZ0lldyJU5ZqXQflOEZJ93oU_UGbzXzsai5ajKc3caVYyvBnaF__pemV/w640-h360/Capture%202.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p><b>Post-Thanksgiving storm:</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiC1ui8Y7jErWF6vmzbvH2duPKcq7OZgouVU03YFqztkAlu9al_haA_EddDkInMPg1_AD7PpHkbXmOje0ldpHeKDc7up18ciezVvfFGtTc6JcUsGXfJR_TJS2MkyiVnVRahoY3aM9a_O3sPpArV_iTpMPea5kLZsnAvcNXhNbxgzDkWYGU2XzV5yjc8ySuW/s1920/AC%20%201.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiC1ui8Y7jErWF6vmzbvH2duPKcq7OZgouVU03YFqztkAlu9al_haA_EddDkInMPg1_AD7PpHkbXmOje0ldpHeKDc7up18ciezVvfFGtTc6JcUsGXfJR_TJS2MkyiVnVRahoY3aM9a_O3sPpArV_iTpMPea5kLZsnAvcNXhNbxgzDkWYGU2XzV5yjc8ySuW/w640-h360/AC%20%201.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>This is not great for those getting on the roads, but for the farmer with acres of wheat that needs moisture, bring it on, right? What's been interesting is how locked in the computer models have been over the last several days. Sometimes we see significant variations from computer model to computer model, but with this go around, that hasn't been the case. In recent days, model trends have been:</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>slightly colder</li><li>higher moisture content</li><li>slightly farther south storm track</li></ul><div>None of the variations have really changed our overall thinking about how this will play out. All of this to say, we expect a statewide snow event. Given the temperatures, this will likely be a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio. That means, if you were to get 10 inches of snow, you would expect about 1 inch of liquid moisture. Much of the state could be in the running for .30"-.50" (again this will be melted snow)</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Wind - </b>not a huge factor here. Look at western Kansas on Friday where the snow will be falling. Most should have wind speeds under 15. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7svzDZb_m9eJoFfQFd46Ei7H3mHgqGI5Sujdvx8pvQ-ilJgry52rHG-r4EFQ5znKNWLjKaRSzzaxjXvwrsMqJESiiR3XwiHX6cUeEdIonvo1MNSBJ_myYsZPqDDiWjPZxyy3XKhyphenhyphenSULWX0A7VGzOQNSQbhSBx_6v_gtJkLgxVVahcKT39DJMhVBhge5Jq/s1920/WEB%201.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7svzDZb_m9eJoFfQFd46Ei7H3mHgqGI5Sujdvx8pvQ-ilJgry52rHG-r4EFQ5znKNWLjKaRSzzaxjXvwrsMqJESiiR3XwiHX6cUeEdIonvo1MNSBJ_myYsZPqDDiWjPZxyy3XKhyphenhyphenSULWX0A7VGzOQNSQbhSBx_6v_gtJkLgxVVahcKT39DJMhVBhge5Jq/w640-h360/WEB%201.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>And then on Saturday, speeds are nothing to be concerned with:</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiIEqC2IREADrPvooUFtLCcfJLL_RGyROwEeMwxmIyp4opRp2q3QCFBO1XLx-6dzlK8orCA1YlVHjDXAbLM3Y7ZSjVVmg1H1cyENzEhma2NcClkTVw8IMLHyY9Wl3UNDL4BPzeCViGjfZNjAG8QDGCkIS1RQhfqG4cb05UbTBfhpROnbXqTafrnJffl5j4/s1920/WEB%202.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiIEqC2IREADrPvooUFtLCcfJLL_RGyROwEeMwxmIyp4opRp2q3QCFBO1XLx-6dzlK8orCA1YlVHjDXAbLM3Y7ZSjVVmg1H1cyENzEhma2NcClkTVw8IMLHyY9Wl3UNDL4BPzeCViGjfZNjAG8QDGCkIS1RQhfqG4cb05UbTBfhpROnbXqTafrnJffl5j4/w640-h360/WEB%202.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>The moisture content looks healthy but given how quickly it will plow through the region (probably 12 hours of snow), it should keep us from having a major snowstorm. Early thinking on accumulations (storm total, including Friday and Saturday amounts):</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnfxUTYeWu3xSjorvltIIFCYev_xsTAVsYNeG1poHuZY0GUMwv8EpQYKKMvDEbR6r40RsekoRJyCI7S08e5CsgtVphn0sY7cDLeDn3WXxv7ttCaOLCDHiJd0SLUSok78rFXt7BIvot9uEWI1QTr-os0UZ9FGD0l6bfbLJaCc5WC5DT7X2QrJzqk-Sa4Iw1/s1920/WEB%203.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnfxUTYeWu3xSjorvltIIFCYev_xsTAVsYNeG1poHuZY0GUMwv8EpQYKKMvDEbR6r40RsekoRJyCI7S08e5CsgtVphn0sY7cDLeDn3WXxv7ttCaOLCDHiJd0SLUSok78rFXt7BIvot9uEWI1QTr-os0UZ9FGD0l6bfbLJaCc5WC5DT7X2QrJzqk-Sa4Iw1/w640-h360/WEB%203.png" width="640" /></a></div><p><b>What's behind the winter system:</b></p><p>There's no Arctic air coming down into our immediate region, so expect the snow melt to start the next day. The month of November will end with seasonal temperatures (40s and 50s). What will be interesting to watch is just how active things might remain for several weeks to come. It's possible we may have a system trying to come through around Wed/Thu (Nov. 29/30) - so keep that in mind. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3gj80vaHXVZhOQhWlsvbILz-YWjAGCxJkjktwZT1kP-ovvRUeD8K8Z2IP3kGyXMuXusZbUZ_tKgvufJ5dOA1lXwisbFkysEWkz6Y-NGyGRCpX0BgmfxQa8MkaM7BlT5BxZbNafIusNbH-hhPY18BtlLRg3j4d-1m7wYlCw9Jbtc7K0H_DV2ibr1-EKu5-/s1920/Capture%203.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3gj80vaHXVZhOQhWlsvbILz-YWjAGCxJkjktwZT1kP-ovvRUeD8K8Z2IP3kGyXMuXusZbUZ_tKgvufJ5dOA1lXwisbFkysEWkz6Y-NGyGRCpX0BgmfxQa8MkaM7BlT5BxZbNafIusNbH-hhPY18BtlLRg3j4d-1m7wYlCw9Jbtc7K0H_DV2ibr1-EKu5-/w640-h360/Capture%203.png" width="640" /></a></div>If the system actually comes to reality, the expectation is it would be a rain maker and not one with snow or ice. <br /><p><b>Early December:</b> If you look at the map below, that area of "blue" on the West coast suggests lower pressures. That would likely mean a series of systems would be coming off the Pacific and tracking east. It does NOT guarantee that we will have moisture coming to the Plains, but it does increase the odds a bit. Just as a reminder, some of our most productive weather makers track from southern California to the Plains (while they intercept Gulf of Mexico humidity). </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR9XBv5BD_5T5n3yG_ZB2nLZjDrzJDpI8XgFVo-iGtPWaQautpVWIaTmhyaGeVoJTXW-YXn-mEyJWbtr9v5Ygy_KuZ4tqLjRTYpRBADMbvTJYzWZRJZAQqSZQjZNMNBILw3Dk9mxFaRiyjbk7_xgpgJkI1TZJ3tlYXoBfCczU1TVwZkyS8RWe0mrIkueHy/s974/3.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="725" data-original-width="974" height="476" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR9XBv5BD_5T5n3yG_ZB2nLZjDrzJDpI8XgFVo-iGtPWaQautpVWIaTmhyaGeVoJTXW-YXn-mEyJWbtr9v5Ygy_KuZ4tqLjRTYpRBADMbvTJYzWZRJZAQqSZQjZNMNBILw3Dk9mxFaRiyjbk7_xgpgJkI1TZJ3tlYXoBfCczU1TVwZkyS8RWe0mrIkueHy/w640-h476/3.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Some computer models suggest up to .50" of moisture for the central Plains, but maybe not much more. We will have to wait and see, but the overall pattern should remain busy in the coming weeks. </div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_XGpbbJ3lMtPWLXWW7nvsOe7SVa9V7M8Z5T__2SQy-04alR2_Cykx_GIE6XLONH-87EzSDtijHzPXHdgPKQD-HQU6wV_sfZBoDXit8TBI5tXWx_nXq-BNFI4FWN9qQe_gOdDGdb6D45y3FjqC89qB2Me3WfG2uoiBV7JhsuBIrpgCATscxmocwQiU5l2G/s962/6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="694" data-original-width="962" height="462" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_XGpbbJ3lMtPWLXWW7nvsOe7SVa9V7M8Z5T__2SQy-04alR2_Cykx_GIE6XLONH-87EzSDtijHzPXHdgPKQD-HQU6wV_sfZBoDXit8TBI5tXWx_nXq-BNFI4FWN9qQe_gOdDGdb6D45y3FjqC89qB2Me3WfG2uoiBV7JhsuBIrpgCATscxmocwQiU5l2G/w640-h462/6.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>Thanks for coming by for a few minutes. Have a great day.</p><p></p>Ross Janssenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09448734924733257676noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3466064543380551353.post-43409719228765751152023-11-17T07:30:00.000-06:002023-11-17T07:30:22.558-06:00Winter storms are changing - what? And active weather ahead<p>Someone asked me in the last week, "what's this I hear about winter storms changing". It took me a second to understand what they were referring to, but then it hit me they were referring to the National Weather Service adjusting the criteria for a "winter storm warning". Most weather consumers (even meteorologists to be quite transparent) don't fully know, or remember, what criteria is needed for an advisory or a warning. Typically, if a winter storm is expected to drop 6 inches of snow, a "warning" will be issued. If it's expected to be LESS than 6 inches, a winter weather advisory comes down for the particular area. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyj63-fEGMPlOX-IufHrnJE1RSrGb0m3WDluuSpnhhzsejg1suKNhtjc0qm189U5kwcVKKK01fOwoY9RvCb07hh-GqmXjG0epLjYfWSOGqDaLxYBaSScLslLA_lvOKbO5DKwnEV9HSclqsE_psH8BaN08YYjID3JBFCPdReY6AOpAM6cdQCXwwKPxnQUgL/s1480/6.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="751" data-original-width="1480" height="324" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyj63-fEGMPlOX-IufHrnJE1RSrGb0m3WDluuSpnhhzsejg1suKNhtjc0qm189U5kwcVKKK01fOwoY9RvCb07hh-GqmXjG0epLjYfWSOGqDaLxYBaSScLslLA_lvOKbO5DKwnEV9HSclqsE_psH8BaN08YYjID3JBFCPdReY6AOpAM6cdQCXwwKPxnQUgL/w640-h324/6.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>However, effectively immediately, most of Kansas will fall into a winter storm warning if 5 inches (or more) of snow is expected. This is not a big change, really. It will be interesting to see if by lowering the snow criteria if we end up with more winter storm warnings, or the count remains the same. I find it interesting how winter storm warnings get issued for just an inch or two of snow in the deep South. I get it - they aren't accustomed to them. Just like wind chill advisories for Florida when the expected "feels like" drops to 35 or colder. <p></p><b>November warmth:</b><div>Just passed the halfway point of the month and this has been a warm one to say the least. South central Kansas is on pace to have the 2nd warmest, while Dodge City and Goodland are in the running for warmest. However, we still have some time left to erase some of that warmth. <div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhw-63ZbZRCa9hhJTlD5YG2ctTozrHKn3FFR9BzZxx5WHME-r8rbzYebQ6_fzFmCwZiaw1Xv6eF0GpxefWPi9wXjLoBAdRiQr7kPBWMliJbPmdsmX3hPI3STm1hdkgEAU1mxOWRYxsgmLOw-lT1PEPfusYOjGcrRZA6lsUqKTWbDkLlgdVS_WeTo5vjFbfL/s1920/2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhw-63ZbZRCa9hhJTlD5YG2ctTozrHKn3FFR9BzZxx5WHME-r8rbzYebQ6_fzFmCwZiaw1Xv6eF0GpxefWPi9wXjLoBAdRiQr7kPBWMliJbPmdsmX3hPI3STm1hdkgEAU1mxOWRYxsgmLOw-lT1PEPfusYOjGcrRZA6lsUqKTWbDkLlgdVS_WeTo5vjFbfL/w640-h360/2.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /></div><div><b>Two systems to watch:</b></div><div>The first one coming in Sunday/Monday looks to have the potential of .50-1" of moisture. We know there will be areas that come up well shy of that, and some that might get more. It's the nature of the beast, but what we DO have going for us is a Gulf of Mexico connection. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBcO3Tz4r5DjCjAM6pccnTFExSlQLB2lhgCictf8vSS7P8ChEd2Ywxh-AYWk014Qncu51hxvFq3wQ7T_0erzDeSQJ1uwOJ_Juw-utNouehz-60DRDiYx1hbMUOppbLee4HL0W8EynUjmla3suaDEtulHTaqDrdZ9K9qye57G4dBMM0meIyYAjcrWRzw7qY/s1920/Capture%206.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBcO3Tz4r5DjCjAM6pccnTFExSlQLB2lhgCictf8vSS7P8ChEd2Ywxh-AYWk014Qncu51hxvFq3wQ7T_0erzDeSQJ1uwOJ_Juw-utNouehz-60DRDiYx1hbMUOppbLee4HL0W8EynUjmla3suaDEtulHTaqDrdZ9K9qye57G4dBMM0meIyYAjcrWRzw7qY/w640-h360/Capture%206.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>We haven't had that for awhile. Notice the white arrows coming right off the Gulf and headed right up into the Plains? That should hopefully prove quite helpful in bolster some of the rainfall amounts. Latest look at rainfall amounts shows many areas around .50"<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4KKVu1-FqVztIBwGCrjecrHi8owae9OCbpWt9RmIhoEvQ6dkOvUccQLK_V8sFmaZh7ssm1M4Rs_zvWA378R0nj0P0UxWUVBHCHm_y5wWL0CznO7ju1WjLiJztIgrpTi2OvN00hq0ByuhY1YSyDjh9UertFvIXyAAig_B6Iv0JCf37yhcw5149bhsZl1Hs/s1920/1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4KKVu1-FqVztIBwGCrjecrHi8owae9OCbpWt9RmIhoEvQ6dkOvUccQLK_V8sFmaZh7ssm1M4Rs_zvWA378R0nj0P0UxWUVBHCHm_y5wWL0CznO7ju1WjLiJztIgrpTi2OvN00hq0ByuhY1YSyDjh9UertFvIXyAAig_B6Iv0JCf37yhcw5149bhsZl1Hs/w640-h360/1.png" width="640" /></a></div></div><div><br /></div><div><b>An after-Thanksgiving system may develop too:</b></div><div>We don't know much about what kind of system this will turn out to be, but in full transparency, there is a possibility of some snow AND light ice coming this way AFTER the holiday. Models are developing snow across the Rockies and High Plains, but things like track, moisture, and intensity are quite fuzzy now. If you do plan travel on Friday or at all next weekend, you'll want to check back with us. This doesn't have the ear markings of a powerhouse storm system, but it might have the right combo of moisture and cold air to make travel more difficult.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgi1TCZ32iyX9Nvi4jbE1rXsd7iwhacuizVPsTq7Cx7g3CIoYPxY8J2xFWxAADutayU4-M7VcbN27Wjs7DoEpBcgEBlxGi11Hh5iPfFuIkqoE6PdA5gYpey36trO0HPyzdfEsUkbQzJxWvGCC376XYrQA9tMGfAyLgRfSRuvlUjeYdGkLT3If_sbL3WFeEe/s1920/AC%209.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgi1TCZ32iyX9Nvi4jbE1rXsd7iwhacuizVPsTq7Cx7g3CIoYPxY8J2xFWxAADutayU4-M7VcbN27Wjs7DoEpBcgEBlxGi11Hh5iPfFuIkqoE6PdA5gYpey36trO0HPyzdfEsUkbQzJxWvGCC376XYrQA9tMGfAyLgRfSRuvlUjeYdGkLT3If_sbL3WFeEe/w640-h360/AC%209.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>What is certain is there will be a bunch of cold air filtering south late in the holiday week. We may find ourselves dealing with some of the coldest air of the season, but that's how we can even things out after a warm start to the month.</div><div><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRv9sXcVEOFUTT_svfub3oEKVOpDPPPGzbE_USIH2gCSe4Pide7LuoZsJkp6-RRN2E40AJU4FclCNIYRt1e4z67kxJmFP8XEOsVqbEptRhkn8allBF3-qAjpx92aUfCWl31ANkBEWYpZ75KH4ETd7tlfk76I7aG2Vhr_w_qUDxhsT7VDcAKaIFLDCTVTZa/s1920/2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRv9sXcVEOFUTT_svfub3oEKVOpDPPPGzbE_USIH2gCSe4Pide7LuoZsJkp6-RRN2E40AJU4FclCNIYRt1e4z67kxJmFP8XEOsVqbEptRhkn8allBF3-qAjpx92aUfCWl31ANkBEWYpZ75KH4ETd7tlfk76I7aG2Vhr_w_qUDxhsT7VDcAKaIFLDCTVTZa/w640-h360/2.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div><b>Early December:</b></div><div>Just glancing out into early December. I don't think we will have record cold, but it looks like the beginning of December is going to be a little colder than average. What would that mean for high temperatures? I would expect mainly 30s and 40s. I've even seen some maps suggesting that December (as a whole) will be chillier than normal.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKKHC7d8wDjoG7nJm1KbPeTATthRYP9yn2Z5MTZIaUhCETbFT9kRbQO5FKTPqm2AChPeb6tLq4HfiYR_eE4isqdE-XWDJo4-I-X_fIeIj6PfqAD_o7zBQQs3Y_QPc_UqFEiL35GqFB-xXMEadxZctfrhTNyAVDEJBXfL2MAKEhmnBbxwC8DuIuXM2oOrnm/s951/1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="695" data-original-width="951" height="468" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKKHC7d8wDjoG7nJm1KbPeTATthRYP9yn2Z5MTZIaUhCETbFT9kRbQO5FKTPqm2AChPeb6tLq4HfiYR_eE4isqdE-XWDJo4-I-X_fIeIj6PfqAD_o7zBQQs3Y_QPc_UqFEiL35GqFB-xXMEadxZctfrhTNyAVDEJBXfL2MAKEhmnBbxwC8DuIuXM2oOrnm/w640-h468/1.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Moisture outlook:</b></div><div>We'll see how this pans out, but an active weather pattern may continue right into the beginning of December as well. It's that time of year where you know how bad we need the moisture, but there's the chance it doesn't come in the form we want. Average precipitation for early December is generally under .50", but if we continue in a very progressive pattern (where one storm off the West coast follows another), we could be in for some interesting weather to start the new month.<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyC_6H5dixmaseRC8wI1Km42lETAGcTMR13GxFT4Kn8ARMcywPI7PU7PTHdNFuhB2vZgShtNfkop63Z8TVkw3URovcpViVhPBuuxuTRNP9trBVVszEVC6uy3nmmG_3-Yr21aTQ0uxvAB-APCVBXvtSvJtC1sIdGTOFHzK4oGyKN-imqMNFKRqVzWdGb-kw/s937/2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="691" data-original-width="937" height="472" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyC_6H5dixmaseRC8wI1Km42lETAGcTMR13GxFT4Kn8ARMcywPI7PU7PTHdNFuhB2vZgShtNfkop63Z8TVkw3URovcpViVhPBuuxuTRNP9trBVVszEVC6uy3nmmG_3-Yr21aTQ0uxvAB-APCVBXvtSvJtC1sIdGTOFHzK4oGyKN-imqMNFKRqVzWdGb-kw/w640-h472/2.png" width="640" /></a></div></div><div><br /></div><div>More to come as we roll into Thanksgiving week.</div></div>Ross Janssenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09448734924733257676noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3466064543380551353.post-36763996712732924782023-11-10T07:54:00.006-06:002023-11-10T07:54:49.651-06:00Early thoughts on Thanksgiving weekThanksgiving is drawing closer - I can already smell the turkey. It's probably my favorite holiday since the focus is on something we should practice every day. And then there's the food too. We'd all like to be thankful for some good, soaking rain that eases more of the ongoing drought. But will it happen before, during, or after Thanksgiving?<div><br /></div><div>If you read our November outlook, we highlighted the fact that the first half of the month wasn't going to have much moisture. These dry stretches (without even a chance of moisture) have been painfully long, sometimes lasting nearly 45-60 days. They are going to have to get closer together if we are going to make any progress in erasing the damage this drought has done. </div><div><br /></div><div>In the 2nd week of November - the rain continues to be south. A nice low coming up from Mexico provides the southern Plains with nice moisture. They need it too, but it's tough getting left out. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwBG0fa_10ThMqgRKWZGvGO0tRR2V19NEoC0L3URISKRR21GCV59wsxM7nbJ7UJi__O6zz1q64nk33YPMdxRdKRea4qyHQL89RUThxLfeH7T47UFS77qT6aThMofSmfqtI27tfYxJ8jkP62xV4MqTr7zk98MD84j-IXnFmGQaqxZofzDedO5jQDDeI01_-/s1920/1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwBG0fa_10ThMqgRKWZGvGO0tRR2V19NEoC0L3URISKRR21GCV59wsxM7nbJ7UJi__O6zz1q64nk33YPMdxRdKRea4qyHQL89RUThxLfeH7T47UFS77qT6aThMofSmfqtI27tfYxJ8jkP62xV4MqTr7zk98MD84j-IXnFmGQaqxZofzDedO5jQDDeI01_-/w640-h360/1.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>And it will be WARM! There is no sign of winter in much of the country. Several record highs will once again be threatened, especially across the northern tier of the US.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7Bjxf2ixWvLn45Hk_UbUagGwEVIeZzr9hL1SOwlOnBJETdR-Ia4p2si77HEr0Thd50vqWYsOohiVf32uBXSmSwdV1BAR3JrwaOyneyGrtJBohTUbMkBmazAgukwg9QA2L9kLZFyzj-s1GF4VPhocIReN5NA6Wv-gIJm3BN4mvlBtEMd2-Iz2I-jc5WOyb/s1920/AC%205.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7Bjxf2ixWvLn45Hk_UbUagGwEVIeZzr9hL1SOwlOnBJETdR-Ia4p2si77HEr0Thd50vqWYsOohiVf32uBXSmSwdV1BAR3JrwaOyneyGrtJBohTUbMkBmazAgukwg9QA2L9kLZFyzj-s1GF4VPhocIReN5NA6Wv-gIJm3BN4mvlBtEMd2-Iz2I-jc5WOyb/w640-h360/AC%205.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>There will be a nice big trough (low pressure) developing across the western US in the weekend prior to the Thanksgiving week. Will this come at us in waves, or just one big system? We don't have a good answer to that yet, but my expectation is that we will have several waves coming through here. It could be quite active during the holiday week. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_3Xa9E9MjtWbIQ3tMqUE1iv5WgPal0aBJ9UkgHS5Nabsd_8OxnYLARP_HIpj5FWEZufeWcM1Gm7QsiYoQNL4tAAFt3CpBT_cHRPYfxmykR2TS14d8W22xKHUh8s6bwv41kG_5m4QBJKKkx73hKfyxt3SUm5N1yGqqRae26qK_4WTs2qn1kh7HdezLxznG/s1920/2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_3Xa9E9MjtWbIQ3tMqUE1iv5WgPal0aBJ9UkgHS5Nabsd_8OxnYLARP_HIpj5FWEZufeWcM1Gm7QsiYoQNL4tAAFt3CpBT_cHRPYfxmykR2TS14d8W22xKHUh8s6bwv41kG_5m4QBJKKkx73hKfyxt3SUm5N1yGqqRae26qK_4WTs2qn1kh7HdezLxznG/w640-h360/2.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYjFDRNj55VvQUXizl6e-Qg6xb6F4a5vX5c7u0Dwhtr1-dgwVR7mlKyYOhbc9E3-eTQe5gYFv8iOqgkEMoLd6Il_PfXEj6eMwfImXGy8099rQnV7Wv0kC9LgOSx4nPLKq1gwqIw5qHkj5O3pVXFofk6j25-hMwHgLxPWIi0wHnZ_DjDg3bmj5XV-6kbX_q/s974/6.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="695" data-original-width="974" height="456" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYjFDRNj55VvQUXizl6e-Qg6xb6F4a5vX5c7u0Dwhtr1-dgwVR7mlKyYOhbc9E3-eTQe5gYFv8iOqgkEMoLd6Il_PfXEj6eMwfImXGy8099rQnV7Wv0kC9LgOSx4nPLKq1gwqIw5qHkj5O3pVXFofk6j25-hMwHgLxPWIi0wHnZ_DjDg3bmj5XV-6kbX_q/w640-h456/6.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Here's another consideration on the rainfall for Thanksgiving week. Much of Kansas has a 40-50% chance of getting at least .50" of moisture BEFORE the holiday. Some of you will say "that's not going to be enough to change anything" - I understand. However, it's more than some areas have had in nearly 40 days. We will update this as we get closer. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9mNi0m3HBDxnYafKr8PBANs0x9VFI_OiB5UJwyGltRXNhwvE4kF5Bv7INNFuNIjOTNknVsXdHrcdQYljNw43Oa6DuCva_uUTLcmUmFXUu41lUNJZtAPR_zvS-SEjwYEV4B6GsF7fG6hJPsMvwaDpOKa0CtmRoYACdBl18zcKb1YwiRU4are6t_426AoOT/s974/2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="699" data-original-width="974" height="460" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9mNi0m3HBDxnYafKr8PBANs0x9VFI_OiB5UJwyGltRXNhwvE4kF5Bv7INNFuNIjOTNknVsXdHrcdQYljNw43Oa6DuCva_uUTLcmUmFXUu41lUNJZtAPR_zvS-SEjwYEV4B6GsF7fG6hJPsMvwaDpOKa0CtmRoYACdBl18zcKb1YwiRU4are6t_426AoOT/w640-h460/2.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">While that might intimidate some of you planning holiday travel, it's doubtful there will be much cold air around, so <b>A BIG WINTER STORM APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY FOR KANSAS AND SURROUNDING AREAS.</b></div><div><br /></div><div>I expect a cooler stretch of weather in late November, but it doesn't look like it will be quite as cold as the surge we had in late October leading up to Halloween.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxebGZYgyaNhOJjCYslKcCOM2sJHFlJlwimPE7NxD0Zw8Pq7dxhDhuNjo0nh9r5_JxgmcXGWFhqZtZPBuMZQAy1lrYMuKP8OAjcrSazYHTX4Aj-fJ26M4toluw0wdnq54PTF8EJCTko4YB7gmX2eiy8_EOqHMPoty7gxSDcCcorZEKzY-ZxK5ol_Z6wVzJ/s977/8.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="684" data-original-width="977" height="448" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxebGZYgyaNhOJjCYslKcCOM2sJHFlJlwimPE7NxD0Zw8Pq7dxhDhuNjo0nh9r5_JxgmcXGWFhqZtZPBuMZQAy1lrYMuKP8OAjcrSazYHTX4Aj-fJ26M4toluw0wdnq54PTF8EJCTko4YB7gmX2eiy8_EOqHMPoty7gxSDcCcorZEKzY-ZxK5ol_Z6wVzJ/w640-h448/8.PNG" width="640" /></a></div></div><div>Have a great day. </div>Ross Janssenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09448734924733257676noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3466064543380551353.post-5615363884204942462023-11-02T07:02:00.000-06:002023-11-02T07:02:28.896-06:00Ocean temperatures are still warm everywhere - El Nino updateAs we move closer to the start of winter - still more than a month away - it's remarkable how warm ocean temperatures continue to be (relatively to average). Just look at this map of the eastern Pacific and into the Gulf of Alaska. There's so much red all over the place, generally representing water temperatures that are about .6-1.5°C above average. <div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvIhyIbUnuqgQ9hl_GGk6ZYzrBrqLCzV7c59fncvn1VhEfYu7W4qzc_02km-fvJpsMwIXFmnhOsC4bx_9IvJpaBQKPPBpxz577J7-r2TKNR5PnHZFsmQka9sxdDtWfXdub_m0UHY6huD7kgW5wAdC2EpuGJYj6asYo6Sfd5jS4qGTd2rNlUP48ibL4gWjV/s963/2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="680" data-original-width="963" height="452" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvIhyIbUnuqgQ9hl_GGk6ZYzrBrqLCzV7c59fncvn1VhEfYu7W4qzc_02km-fvJpsMwIXFmnhOsC4bx_9IvJpaBQKPPBpxz577J7-r2TKNR5PnHZFsmQka9sxdDtWfXdub_m0UHY6huD7kgW5wAdC2EpuGJYj6asYo6Sfd5jS4qGTd2rNlUP48ibL4gWjV/w640-h452/2.png" width="640" /></a></div></div><div><br /></div><div>Compare that to one year ago - colder than average water in the Gulf of Alaska and just off the California coast. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiu2KpQTKlNvmlZ-ZMPGEuHSNxpnI2FGn0jbrBpRQdVUyb-a5uKXZm8KSDx5Dbw_F_riH73eA-GBxwsEy1ByWFrTasPuWL1do6t6Zvlb8YVoP8RuYVJshZ9K_xvckz1DnDol8ei7CscmBK-2fG_crCD3LVp5VPVgEDerqykwyO_cFXUrSnuoEBJvJi2sjO_/s972/5.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="690" data-original-width="972" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiu2KpQTKlNvmlZ-ZMPGEuHSNxpnI2FGn0jbrBpRQdVUyb-a5uKXZm8KSDx5Dbw_F_riH73eA-GBxwsEy1ByWFrTasPuWL1do6t6Zvlb8YVoP8RuYVJshZ9K_xvckz1DnDol8ei7CscmBK-2fG_crCD3LVp5VPVgEDerqykwyO_cFXUrSnuoEBJvJi2sjO_/w640-h454/5.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>There are a number of different oscillations we can look at when trying to determine longer range patterns. In reference to some of what we've displayed here, we call it the <b>Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)</b> and it goes back and forth between positive and negative. Right now, it's negative and that favors warm water in the north Pacific and cooler water off the coast of California. </div><div><br /></div><div>That also lines up with an El Nino that we've referenced here before too. The region that is watched for El Nino is along the equator in the Pacific. Here's what that looks like in recent weeks:<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjW6IDqzHVRrYk-rMjckYCVfq96t6qsoFgg060renOVZnDGmsqInqXOc_y42eMf-2GgfLcU5add3-7MVP-SAXRMR9R24p2In-MZqrWYiYN-Qh07yfrmcEqNk24SacDeOiDrD-nGTbLePHuABl3uVn4PGl4wBSKJuK_gX2-7kt_KquZVY8z9Nn-bfZeNna5B/s1920/1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjW6IDqzHVRrYk-rMjckYCVfq96t6qsoFgg060renOVZnDGmsqInqXOc_y42eMf-2GgfLcU5add3-7MVP-SAXRMR9R24p2In-MZqrWYiYN-Qh07yfrmcEqNk24SacDeOiDrD-nGTbLePHuABl3uVn4PGl4wBSKJuK_gX2-7kt_KquZVY8z9Nn-bfZeNna5B/w640-h360/1.png" width="640" /></a></div></div><div>I bring this up because negative PDO phases and El Nino episodes don't collide very often. In fact, the last one that I found was 2006 (and even then, it was a weak El Nino and a weak PDO). It may not be a good measuring factor for help in unlocking this upcoming winter. The hardest part in trying to understand what this winter has in store is what does all of the very warm water mean for our precipitation chances. Right now, we are dealing with a moderately strong El Nino with a water temperature that is 1.6°C above average. </div><div><br /></div><div>We continue to watch and wait for a few more clues on the winter season, but this year (like so many others), it's a tough call, but we feel some optimism that more progress will be made in fighting back against ongoing drought. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>A few more updated November maps to consider:</b></div><div>Again, the first part of the month is basically a dud with no major systems tracking through here. The jet stream (winds around 18-20k feet) are very zonal - basically a straight west to east pattern. There are no large scale low pressure systems and therefore, our changes in weather should be quite minimal in the coming days. This isn't unusual, but when trying to fight drought, this isn't helpful. This flat weather pattern will persist for much of the first half of the month. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmStc-JpaSjPhD9lbgZjhUeEF0lXBMB9WLSTBWNYxD3M6oQKP9ItiI3Acmh365X9M5t9vyoIDj1RANes8gDQu35QHZ_5M96cKl0ydviwnv0K3kUGeV0MXJ31AhG8t2a6_uqXs4cS2RF3RCdeMLYSFrSkky9cjWjGMnGZIUR_qBIiTeznsUfRQ_S-D3ZgpO/s965/1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="678" data-original-width="965" height="450" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmStc-JpaSjPhD9lbgZjhUeEF0lXBMB9WLSTBWNYxD3M6oQKP9ItiI3Acmh365X9M5t9vyoIDj1RANes8gDQu35QHZ_5M96cKl0ydviwnv0K3kUGeV0MXJ31AhG8t2a6_uqXs4cS2RF3RCdeMLYSFrSkky9cjWjGMnGZIUR_qBIiTeznsUfRQ_S-D3ZgpO/w640-h450/1.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Even though huge amounts of rain may not come at all this month, there's still reason to think the second half of the month will be more active. Models have consistently shown moisture happening around Thanksgiving, but I remind you that "average rainfall" in November still isn't that much. Even if we end up with above average precipitation, it may only translate to .50" or so - not enough to bring water levels up in ponds and lakes. </div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnWIFyTuv8G-IGRVHqzjujFpbvhqaO28e8DPh3j0ZBYqlIHONaou5LKK3cMivl5vRyee9OHK6Xd11mZv0uZTPoXx5CrdBqWZbK-r43RnVLWE2kYGmigv46ttZdZkYgdLMUs-eeFsj2Bnqq_GvRWfqXGmaf04-9SUvmFb-t_egTDITQk9264mKZy7JXGW2z/s982/Capture%201.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="685" data-original-width="982" height="446" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnWIFyTuv8G-IGRVHqzjujFpbvhqaO28e8DPh3j0ZBYqlIHONaou5LKK3cMivl5vRyee9OHK6Xd11mZv0uZTPoXx5CrdBqWZbK-r43RnVLWE2kYGmigv46ttZdZkYgdLMUs-eeFsj2Bnqq_GvRWfqXGmaf04-9SUvmFb-t_egTDITQk9264mKZy7JXGW2z/w640-h446/Capture%201.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div>Latest drought map released to start November - the headline here is there is NO "exceptional" drought any longer in Kansas. A stark improvement from 3 months ago, but still have a tremendous way to go in our drought fight. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgp2RMx_cNlIhbUroqJWlxtmbqF-JJE065lP1bx3kMYqQr89aWR-yNesTyl02aRqT9dTdZ2fqV08138lJKH98h2t4V8L0VjB3TL6Jp5rvEwIrzoELcFWVEIv5j1zfqkVlj2S702Smnf2g2RF0rrAthe4aKtAADUBsKg5BU1ap_A7h6wI4xi4XxT7t89gARa/s1056/2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="816" data-original-width="1056" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgp2RMx_cNlIhbUroqJWlxtmbqF-JJE065lP1bx3kMYqQr89aWR-yNesTyl02aRqT9dTdZ2fqV08138lJKH98h2t4V8L0VjB3TL6Jp5rvEwIrzoELcFWVEIv5j1zfqkVlj2S702Smnf2g2RF0rrAthe4aKtAADUBsKg5BU1ap_A7h6wI4xi4XxT7t89gARa/w640-h494/2.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Have a great day.</div>Ross Janssenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09448734924733257676noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3466064543380551353.post-45392516426998364842023-10-26T07:07:00.004-06:002023-10-26T07:07:40.338-06:00One winter outlook is out - some wild weather ahead<p>NOAA just released their winter outlook in the last week and there's not much surprise to it if you understand what kind of conditions El Niño brings in winter. Typically, you get a warmer setup for the northern tier of the country and wet conditions across the southern tier. That basically matches what you'll see in their early predictions for December, January, and February (meteorological winter).</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzuL_N88taoEKCmL3nJBVIlUQRlxzls3lBtMQPYU6xQ3ryOiyuze-Lx7SdySWw4l8ZyGrzKaiPwLUwb_x8xodzQqIacAQCJXWwctheQKBu-I2Do2LmNvEFvGcGYFhkyPgI9DIVYS3B0qiisfKA_QkjzFVQ1iiigzxbN2Mon4DQlzH9uAWZ3kO-xt5GZQPV/s3300/day%201%20outlook.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2550" data-original-width="3300" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzuL_N88taoEKCmL3nJBVIlUQRlxzls3lBtMQPYU6xQ3ryOiyuze-Lx7SdySWw4l8ZyGrzKaiPwLUwb_x8xodzQqIacAQCJXWwctheQKBu-I2Do2LmNvEFvGcGYFhkyPgI9DIVYS3B0qiisfKA_QkjzFVQ1iiigzxbN2Mon4DQlzH9uAWZ3kO-xt5GZQPV/w640-h494/day%201%20outlook.gif" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2rys1EIrC9un_uymsnOHiPjg03JMqXNSocb5Ab0DX6gBHmcihok7vYU575VodkHL9Ag53OT15KcCJLTKflcX6dVCVY7LWmY-mWuc0F3K8qq3jxBjKfG7kwOr_Iiv9pflr7VCGVxaXROJtvU33hp-LZ6yMDDmjIWGCO3LN3NbtngyRIZ-Lr9F4bD_7NiAR/s3300/peakofseason.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2550" data-original-width="3300" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2rys1EIrC9un_uymsnOHiPjg03JMqXNSocb5Ab0DX6gBHmcihok7vYU575VodkHL9Ag53OT15KcCJLTKflcX6dVCVY7LWmY-mWuc0F3K8qq3jxBjKfG7kwOr_Iiv9pflr7VCGVxaXROJtvU33hp-LZ6yMDDmjIWGCO3LN3NbtngyRIZ-Lr9F4bD_7NiAR/w640-h494/peakofseason.gif" width="640" /></a></div><p>Keep in mind that there are two branches to the jet stream (a polar and a subtropical jet). It's the subtropical one that usually gets going and brings the wetter than average conditions to the southern US. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLaGDT6Hsaek-d6T-J4vbQ1TdO-Je9RhPf1z4gL-aiOXQ1LzOP7o1-0EbJbaxI6TAivRrEdszfYn1i5Jbo3bdfw80olWznABoJU9Ul-Mafc0rTd-uLZW801wlZ5njP_YJLGFmdJdN77i6A7t_-7RyTnb7EIoxd9m321PqaY6EiLCtezHfPlv3QU8wusZyj/s1920/AC%208.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLaGDT6Hsaek-d6T-J4vbQ1TdO-Je9RhPf1z4gL-aiOXQ1LzOP7o1-0EbJbaxI6TAivRrEdszfYn1i5Jbo3bdfw80olWznABoJU9Ul-Mafc0rTd-uLZW801wlZ5njP_YJLGFmdJdN77i6A7t_-7RyTnb7EIoxd9m321PqaY6EiLCtezHfPlv3QU8wusZyj/w640-h360/AC%208.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>And we hope that this year is no different because there are so many areas from Kansas to Texas and Louisiana that badly need the rain. </p><p><b>Storm Team 12 will have a winter forecast coming out, but we will release ours closer to Thanksgiving.</b> </p><p>In the meantime, significant rainfall from Tuesday/Wednesday right over some of the state's worst drought conditions. It shouldn't be a surprise how much of that soaked in, but we also know there was some nice runoff too. This will not erase the drought entirely, but when we see the new map out in November, it will look a bit better over the Flint Hills. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmJfHsOt1mZOZC3CjMjkYjSWT3k8q3Z9CIuIV3fUlmMATCA74DfGeaDp324jyNOIUzGNPUhY_D3IBwF9YaDurTrlqUSkb763opgoyEnMhquOpdM-ZTgb1XFN9qDlHKJ3vX6Cm2krhXV-4IlPyNFgJyaT6ZM_aOXZ2AVKxPtMTv7dnDqp7fdtwEpeSm6jAB/s1920/AC%209.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmJfHsOt1mZOZC3CjMjkYjSWT3k8q3Z9CIuIV3fUlmMATCA74DfGeaDp324jyNOIUzGNPUhY_D3IBwF9YaDurTrlqUSkb763opgoyEnMhquOpdM-ZTgb1XFN9qDlHKJ3vX6Cm2krhXV-4IlPyNFgJyaT6ZM_aOXZ2AVKxPtMTv7dnDqp7fdtwEpeSm6jAB/w640-h360/AC%209.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>Final drought map of October looks like this:</b></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjj71TbSp5OrwT2BFr0LT17qLAx6jvOc0QFFFlblxlBhOBjWe3B_sXcV4A-l8K2XcgY74CYN0IDuwfb3hJ9qMymu9KAk_h8fn2pPVBUEjoxrJLHb_fQdYOiJAzDTpTy7pcjv3CEu_TgzcmQzRCT5-ycfRFg86nhjG41-oljBKlzl7P1UuruO9RNv4S8l8Tc/s1920/1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjj71TbSp5OrwT2BFr0LT17qLAx6jvOc0QFFFlblxlBhOBjWe3B_sXcV4A-l8K2XcgY74CYN0IDuwfb3hJ9qMymu9KAk_h8fn2pPVBUEjoxrJLHb_fQdYOiJAzDTpTy7pcjv3CEu_TgzcmQzRCT5-ycfRFg86nhjG41-oljBKlzl7P1UuruO9RNv4S8l8Tc/w640-h360/1.png" width="640" /></a></div><p><b>November thoughts:</b></p><p>Daylight growing less and average rainfall continues to drop too. On average, northwest Kanas only expects about .50", and it's not much higher for southwest Kansas. Most of central and eastern Kansas averages 1-2"</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpr9aNAUQGdj5pwjSgWO1d5YU5CGbi1WaFlxwdzIbCnpXDU6eJNOktnXJZEbJIJy9XFfcwRe6guLrW28i9-iRIx1aKeQ5qtsDWokR0xNk3ztkpgDz_7e7UeniZ6O59A4Q1mZ4BxPqu4AU_pe9od_Fgh2poM_6FCmYxzDeneb-F5YE_wdB8bD0lQfUAWwbJ/s1920/4.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpr9aNAUQGdj5pwjSgWO1d5YU5CGbi1WaFlxwdzIbCnpXDU6eJNOktnXJZEbJIJy9XFfcwRe6guLrW28i9-iRIx1aKeQ5qtsDWokR0xNk3ztkpgDz_7e7UeniZ6O59A4Q1mZ4BxPqu4AU_pe9od_Fgh2poM_6FCmYxzDeneb-F5YE_wdB8bD0lQfUAWwbJ/w640-h360/4.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>In looking at lots of different model runs, it seems to me that November will mostly likely have "near average" temperatures when the month is complete. I don't see it being drastically colder or warmer, even though we will have small spells of both in the coming weeks. Despite the month starting off cooler than average, it won't stay that way. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8A7_H3NAZTBr6qeStKyELKKJXmU_LFwWNdeFXblIeVl6ZuQ1WIZWW0k_Lf8qXYSnNdUkSu-9x4Z1AVOGQIs7geTFUTGa8mGLjdaNC_rXFs5QU-S0-2gzTmDtsaDarczkQY3UCoEyWplZxFX73nP2rUvJiweBOp7nHPsmlDYiYY8v_mNnmZsr5PRYCz6M5/s961/3.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="685" data-original-width="961" height="456" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8A7_H3NAZTBr6qeStKyELKKJXmU_LFwWNdeFXblIeVl6ZuQ1WIZWW0k_Lf8qXYSnNdUkSu-9x4Z1AVOGQIs7geTFUTGa8mGLjdaNC_rXFs5QU-S0-2gzTmDtsaDarczkQY3UCoEyWplZxFX73nP2rUvJiweBOp7nHPsmlDYiYY8v_mNnmZsr5PRYCz6M5/w640-h456/3.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p><b>Moisture</b> - I'm not seeing a big system just yet in the first 10-12 days of the new month. We may have a small system coming through during the first full week of November, and there are hints at something in the week of Thanksgiving. If you go off recent trends, one will think best chances of "above" normal rainfall would be focused in central and eastern Kansas (remember average is about 1-2" in November). The map below suggests southwest Kansas could be in the running for some better moisture. There are still plenty of changes going on with the patterns and the jet stream setup, so model errors can be quite large this time of year. Just sharing these images for full transparency, but reason to remain optimistic that the ongoing El Nino will continue to beef up the precipitation chances for the region. Even just having "average" moisture in a 30-45 day time span would be appreciated. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb2KSP2hCd-SJC_122T4gE9Mrb0dR-tTjz_HAtjw6YiPzcdfJ6BkbjX2bSsPUCvNRjw6yBGh35tXPePffDIJGJCcKxccs1X7GeBiJFuksRMSGjXzvTYqOw6l5Vppws-ZySZynHxia_Y537mw8EtGPUBVBRLctBHsfnaCKAB-9GScU0Q-OhutwR3vn-BpYW/s970/2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="695" data-original-width="970" height="458" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb2KSP2hCd-SJC_122T4gE9Mrb0dR-tTjz_HAtjw6YiPzcdfJ6BkbjX2bSsPUCvNRjw6yBGh35tXPePffDIJGJCcKxccs1X7GeBiJFuksRMSGjXzvTYqOw6l5Vppws-ZySZynHxia_Y537mw8EtGPUBVBRLctBHsfnaCKAB-9GScU0Q-OhutwR3vn-BpYW/w640-h458/2.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: left;">Thanks for sharing a few minutes of your time here. </div></div>Ross Janssenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09448734924733257676noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3466064543380551353.post-51970949295206749892023-10-13T06:41:00.002-06:002023-10-13T06:47:50.026-06:00Back-to-back solar eclipses<p>The solar eclipse happening on Saturday brings back vivid reminders of the total solar eclipse that went coast to coast in 2017. I vividly remember my boss coming to me weeks before saying "we are sending you to Beatrice, NE to cover it, but we have one problem. Accommodations in that area are full, so we might need you to camp out." That's one of the memories I'd like to forget, but the overall experience of the eclipse itself was amazing. </p><p>This was our accommodations the night prior. A simple camper trailer and a generator. Honestly, I don't even remember what we had for food. And I don't recall getting an ounce of sleep the night before (it was a little windy, the generator was loud, and we had to be up early for the morning news coverage):</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhe6IpyxxDc0X9zTsaISjBMKBdnI2VH8A0X82iSE9fYSHdO97aTSy0pNrEUZ9g2G9jW5WNlaMiw4yw7DoSW_hOtqIcaWPaIA5Hw9lEME2RxZdGPNJaetoiWVTxneH_Y0cSXLgZYD1_e4A7z_1x1o887UFth50Zt-CGhlgE7VZwQaznpW4K3ul7t9I955Juz/s4032/IMG_0936.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3024" data-original-width="4032" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhe6IpyxxDc0X9zTsaISjBMKBdnI2VH8A0X82iSE9fYSHdO97aTSy0pNrEUZ9g2G9jW5WNlaMiw4yw7DoSW_hOtqIcaWPaIA5Hw9lEME2RxZdGPNJaetoiWVTxneH_Y0cSXLgZYD1_e4A7z_1x1o887UFth50Zt-CGhlgE7VZwQaznpW4K3ul7t9I955Juz/w640-h480/IMG_0936.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Something of this scale (since there hadn't been a coast-to-coast eclipse in a very long time) was covered by hundreds of news outlets. I was amazed at the long row of satellite trucks there and just how far away some of them had traveled to see a 2.5 minute episode of the moon hiding the sun. </div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpyHJR4YEs45IbCiUiBcSDXZb6QcXui8k4lbKnEiPfvO0LhliYs6uhKU6K160tOktutZgqWipZTZhdTPlyM01dD7KI7KOWbUQH3zA2-FxE49VfN65sts1YykrT0Aa_Zi204ZfxJVa0c-b1x9SHVe5ScsExglEAS_FEK_Z8MOBK49ZNUpruqSYVsb1G2Fov/s4032/IMG_0938.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3024" data-original-width="4032" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpyHJR4YEs45IbCiUiBcSDXZb6QcXui8k4lbKnEiPfvO0LhliYs6uhKU6K160tOktutZgqWipZTZhdTPlyM01dD7KI7KOWbUQH3zA2-FxE49VfN65sts1YykrT0Aa_Zi204ZfxJVa0c-b1x9SHVe5ScsExglEAS_FEK_Z8MOBK49ZNUpruqSYVsb1G2Fov/w640-h480/IMG_0938.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The forecast didn't look too bad, but we were up against clouds approaching from the south. Remember, we were covering this from Beatrice, NE and we knew it would be a race between the overcast reaching us and the eclipse taking place. As it would turn out, the clouds arrived before the eclipse and many folks were wondering if they should pack up and go find a new spot along the totality path. As it would happen, the clouds broke JUST in time for us to view it, making it even more dramatic. The photo shown below was taken the night BEFORE the eclipse, and you could already start to see some of the clouds that would move our way. </div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_yF4ucD_w8SLjrjQgy4J7KgN62k7NMeb7PqVrOWMBHYRTcbXebf3egtRigk3KMfdm8Mya2lMEjS1H-RHadWWGAoA-qMvBqn5xnT93WyoMDMVBklNd9h5oRhZE1HNynMAIpkvwjGN1LvLupzYSk-Tt8807d5aLn6DDAZN1ZABZqZ0edChOw-hm3zHnPhgD/s4032/IMG_0940.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3024" data-original-width="4032" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_yF4ucD_w8SLjrjQgy4J7KgN62k7NMeb7PqVrOWMBHYRTcbXebf3egtRigk3KMfdm8Mya2lMEjS1H-RHadWWGAoA-qMvBqn5xnT93WyoMDMVBklNd9h5oRhZE1HNynMAIpkvwjGN1LvLupzYSk-Tt8807d5aLn6DDAZN1ZABZqZ0edChOw-hm3zHnPhgD/w640-h480/IMG_0940.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Of course, Millie made the journey with us too. She spent the afternoon in the live truck in between broadcasts. </div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuIG-XTKi18p0mI66EimSkLD0184dCNBYITWjsfi5O4nBwsG7z9RRojUpnDvekMiATvIT8Q4BaJ6WlnX__x6t89HyF9LoK-9FSBi3OtN_oE_tuhC7-gaTvuixvgmOYmDkL2hkVOdOZUMAZsTZzFglKVuaDFIS7NORDBSB7FGEdhOA4H7RH0iEp67xCEEWg/s4032/IMG_0950.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3024" data-original-width="4032" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuIG-XTKi18p0mI66EimSkLD0184dCNBYITWjsfi5O4nBwsG7z9RRojUpnDvekMiATvIT8Q4BaJ6WlnX__x6t89HyF9LoK-9FSBi3OtN_oE_tuhC7-gaTvuixvgmOYmDkL2hkVOdOZUMAZsTZzFglKVuaDFIS7NORDBSB7FGEdhOA4H7RH0iEp67xCEEWg/w640-h480/IMG_0950.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The 360° sunset is right at the top of the list of things I'll remember from that day. The temperature cooled a bit, some nearby lights came on, and it seemed as if everyone in the crowd left with a smile. </div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXaC-yeelt-O37ku6DVVacmyZpfHI9e22apBB-NWS_DfznOTBtpW5ccli8qXYgwtZhYfDO9TcKB_jld3PJVvuFldrJ1jVeAMXlcpwFetwdkEqmxk-RdcQBIRccO0TkfZmRWNIpumZIWEPaSdY7lmUak0yFPd1Tp1nA_co7MeUAiacsspI11Lg9Sy7TnTm3/s4032/IMG_0954.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="4032" data-original-width="3024" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXaC-yeelt-O37ku6DVVacmyZpfHI9e22apBB-NWS_DfznOTBtpW5ccli8qXYgwtZhYfDO9TcKB_jld3PJVvuFldrJ1jVeAMXlcpwFetwdkEqmxk-RdcQBIRccO0TkfZmRWNIpumZIWEPaSdY7lmUak0yFPd1Tp1nA_co7MeUAiacsspI11Lg9Sy7TnTm3/w480-h640/IMG_0954.jpeg" width="480" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFyYjmjF0zK7My-xv8QVcp5Cuapdkusv3NpkHU9h0yUlmZfsJgmKp9SfwXua0BtGG9XJbQtQ9umNcY3n2l0wxXa5-PYkKOlGHOfCuZv75W5e3eSEhG-_qMerLd0wV9NcRzEN9d1Tf-HJhUKrKe_8UzGMhNeK-H5R7XU1i1vi0gyejD2-f0WcL6b91_j_Df/s4032/IMG_0955.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3024" data-original-width="4032" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFyYjmjF0zK7My-xv8QVcp5Cuapdkusv3NpkHU9h0yUlmZfsJgmKp9SfwXua0BtGG9XJbQtQ9umNcY3n2l0wxXa5-PYkKOlGHOfCuZv75W5e3eSEhG-_qMerLd0wV9NcRzEN9d1Tf-HJhUKrKe_8UzGMhNeK-H5R7XU1i1vi0gyejD2-f0WcL6b91_j_Df/w640-h480/IMG_0955.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiI4xQC228oJlz4w6j4-UvsShwmwmFCEVWVo-AyUeXJKNvg17DlrGTkhjy8uwv1DmBGj3QoI-J_yZ9MFq5vxGIglE5K3vPvCBrV9am_RGXO5TUj0JRe6VTiEI1di4spI1TUB9m58aHPKseKuPUqA1EUuS-A72QxA0w9E5nRmUPIHiwV8DpbyFcEmliKylPx/s4032/IMG_0956.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3024" data-original-width="4032" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiI4xQC228oJlz4w6j4-UvsShwmwmFCEVWVo-AyUeXJKNvg17DlrGTkhjy8uwv1DmBGj3QoI-J_yZ9MFq5vxGIglE5K3vPvCBrV9am_RGXO5TUj0JRe6VTiEI1di4spI1TUB9m58aHPKseKuPUqA1EUuS-A72QxA0w9E5nRmUPIHiwV8DpbyFcEmliKylPx/w640-h480/IMG_0956.jpeg" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCrxbDuEb9qPwQT5WJhKb1F6YluD5aRmFU9VKC71YJFBxqNVKlYe4lFO0stKGOO903Hh9zYBGf5mzreRlVZD8VUORxlxLsaOsgXMkhKCsWMBzoe3QXnbd0BjmjuC0CNUA178H4eWQD3zlwZVsuAjnYwnVsQDOlqmsXdzh16sYexdTJal97Byy2MudjfjTX/s4032/IMG_8006.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="4032" data-original-width="3024" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCrxbDuEb9qPwQT5WJhKb1F6YluD5aRmFU9VKC71YJFBxqNVKlYe4lFO0stKGOO903Hh9zYBGf5mzreRlVZD8VUORxlxLsaOsgXMkhKCsWMBzoe3QXnbd0BjmjuC0CNUA178H4eWQD3zlwZVsuAjnYwnVsQDOlqmsXdzh16sYexdTJal97Byy2MudjfjTX/w480-h640/IMG_8006.jpeg" width="480" /></a></div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Saturday's eclipse is different. It is an ANNULAR eclipse, not a total one like back in 2017. Because the moon's orbit is elliptical around the Earth, there are times when the moon is farther and when it's closer. Since this eclipse happens when the moon is farther from Earth, the entire disk of the sun will NOT be <br />covered. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsyZPUC8LA4W3ML4yg6tXAAyXdRia_k2bwBAP2wNf6rUZbdG-sMNEpLrUmRI2DeTr3zmHgUXGjcGhU0V3qS4mEQ439kaU-mLlTJuSF4z6kxEzi7LH53y7NiVqXLF8ypQVSdTSo7DDY22dY8y7RTz6lFDw5yUaZtDEaMSJPefDNQsY53CmxUEalBVTYjJsb/s1920/3.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsyZPUC8LA4W3ML4yg6tXAAyXdRia_k2bwBAP2wNf6rUZbdG-sMNEpLrUmRI2DeTr3zmHgUXGjcGhU0V3qS4mEQ439kaU-mLlTJuSF4z6kxEzi7LH53y7NiVqXLF8ypQVSdTSo7DDY22dY8y7RTz6lFDw5yUaZtDEaMSJPefDNQsY53CmxUEalBVTYjJsb/w640-h360/3.png" width="640" /></a></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">If you traveled to the path of totality, only about 91% of the sun would be covered (as will be the case in Albuquerque, NM. <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQI7FUDF4Wgw4WQNH5s-q2eMqsads17LgEPMAqNxmO0mXAuJ4IRS8QFPT0iBBZMPoNcWf8vFylx_w1QOq14zyvzdcZ9IwyvTfqmx51cVt7Syi2VtlbZ6XJl7RbZP-TV7XL8rPpr3OIdACrkNSpg93ZnM8gwXruzuIqdtulL9AusZU7F7TOF4iRWMaxmNSF/s1920/1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQI7FUDF4Wgw4WQNH5s-q2eMqsads17LgEPMAqNxmO0mXAuJ4IRS8QFPT0iBBZMPoNcWf8vFylx_w1QOq14zyvzdcZ9IwyvTfqmx51cVt7Syi2VtlbZ6XJl7RbZP-TV7XL8rPpr3OIdACrkNSpg93ZnM8gwXruzuIqdtulL9AusZU7F7TOF4iRWMaxmNSF/w640-h360/1.png" width="640" /></a></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Kansas will have about 70% coverage, still pretty amazing, but you won't get what was pictured above. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsY-_J-3VAdc22dbTYXJETEH6VUmFB4ImWUAigsmdyb_5evEaAOHRkl0PamBwWn4KqvU0Osc1UAmxZKgZuJK0oh9dMGRwYgr9IBv62vE86M2OL0rWIgbkobmz4lyz_d63lctvvtFFuOrS5yfTVjcGS3kYn6tv75i73wru2lTWgPdgbU8_befrPctJGqJjk/s1920/2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsY-_J-3VAdc22dbTYXJETEH6VUmFB4ImWUAigsmdyb_5evEaAOHRkl0PamBwWn4KqvU0Osc1UAmxZKgZuJK0oh9dMGRwYgr9IBv62vE86M2OL0rWIgbkobmz4lyz_d63lctvvtFFuOrS5yfTVjcGS3kYn6tv75i73wru2lTWgPdgbU8_befrPctJGqJjk/w640-h360/2.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>Here are the viewing times:</b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgU-C5tIoJWifHSSnft4dXFX8dTItcUztExTHZjY-yR2Oy8TUl3SRyaEf3Xi8fhLgdf_nq6k8hIQk1IM2NI6g3GCIGdHutIAcsFF6BQDQ1O6ciWJ55g-h6A9NBtYEz9u0icXHjBMtB3F4MBjtAX8chZEs6oAhHjiXolgYlcOznHXu7fqbe6X8WppmOAxMsZ/s1280/3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgU-C5tIoJWifHSSnft4dXFX8dTItcUztExTHZjY-yR2Oy8TUl3SRyaEf3Xi8fhLgdf_nq6k8hIQk1IM2NI6g3GCIGdHutIAcsFF6BQDQ1O6ciWJ55g-h6A9NBtYEz9u0icXHjBMtB3F4MBjtAX8chZEs6oAhHjiXolgYlcOznHXu7fqbe6X8WppmOAxMsZ/w640-h360/3.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">What is fantastic is that we don't have to wait much longer for the next total solar eclipse to give us another dazzling show. And it's going to be just about as close as the one in 2017. If you have some eclipse glasses to view this year's celestial event, be sure to save them for the next one coming in 2024. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEis-5u8uER2qjTomhAZzjY95_AdluVHkumfdGfu5OHCTnjISU6OgPl7wRJzvRlcLbyQ73y4t73RQmwQXCvgYYrXyiIsg_-frZ7CXX8V1gZdFQW6EHhB0RXmIHcLollsWCRCXG7w3ZQxZsBmfucEyVXPZjcPDMNKJJgZQ2QTfQlWDtP9mAZOGINpJuTRFY16/s1920/Capture%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEis-5u8uER2qjTomhAZzjY95_AdluVHkumfdGfu5OHCTnjISU6OgPl7wRJzvRlcLbyQ73y4t73RQmwQXCvgYYrXyiIsg_-frZ7CXX8V1gZdFQW6EHhB0RXmIHcLollsWCRCXG7w3ZQxZsBmfucEyVXPZjcPDMNKJJgZQ2QTfQlWDtP9mAZOGINpJuTRFY16/w640-h360/Capture%201.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">And while you are working on your schedule, mark the calendar for 2045 when a total solar eclipse will come right across Kansas. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhM-eLUg94tvjhelQZZTLkvhFZbmq_-cSTd1n_1H27O3X2S2NApzia2BWTOmIafYR2H-3BNngXVAuYpfosSKVuCVAg-yG1990FULVU5y_dWxnoXcU2le2pAt7ZyGEex-2NIUALxrdZLN2YGG9XeZW3bDFRB3ECw51VmlhyNP83uIjiAruAijE4L5Yml5-19/s1118/8.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="618" data-original-width="1118" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhM-eLUg94tvjhelQZZTLkvhFZbmq_-cSTd1n_1H27O3X2S2NApzia2BWTOmIafYR2H-3BNngXVAuYpfosSKVuCVAg-yG1990FULVU5y_dWxnoXcU2le2pAt7ZyGEex-2NIUALxrdZLN2YGG9XeZW3bDFRB3ECw51VmlhyNP83uIjiAruAijE4L5Yml5-19/w640-h354/8.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Have a great day. </div>Ross Janssenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09448734924733257676noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3466064543380551353.post-69092208316616479642023-10-06T07:05:00.000-06:002023-10-06T07:05:03.940-06:00Is this the beginning of an El Nino influence and eclipse viewing weather<p>Thanks for spending a few minutes here catching up on what's next for Kansas weather. Some of you were blessed to get some rain from a cold front on Tuesday (Oct. 3), but even the areas that did get some moisture, it wasn't near enough. We've heard that before.</p><p>We could be on track for another system developing right over the Plains Oct 10/11. Recent model data has shown a full-scale low pressure forming, leading to some rain and thunder. Keep a close watch on that as we get closer as there is potential, but will it be here or 100 miles away from here?</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNuVJoFlaL5Syxw2Qdqc4JQOfjnOGY75m3-7rLzdhUsGYiM4PiWqvfvqsZmaABfLoi3cndNFOsrH49GdbR84igzJkUO1-wfB_je8Az1n9n8i2s0DQkiOgIikS5iTKBcLqHIGxa-c5Sg3YreLeW2-e4VzdyKMu9rWDbPqdvEw1TzFl9NKFO6vBVPV2JrcJZ/s1920/WEB%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNuVJoFlaL5Syxw2Qdqc4JQOfjnOGY75m3-7rLzdhUsGYiM4PiWqvfvqsZmaABfLoi3cndNFOsrH49GdbR84igzJkUO1-wfB_je8Az1n9n8i2s0DQkiOgIikS5iTKBcLqHIGxa-c5Sg3YreLeW2-e4VzdyKMu9rWDbPqdvEw1TzFl9NKFO6vBVPV2JrcJZ/w640-h360/WEB%201.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div>Average rainfall for the second week of October would be about two-thirds of an inch for south central Kansas, but in western Kansas it would be closer to about one-third. <br /><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4F4BMbk0OBp3qtzP06l1B-VLnnkz1GDK3lMSgfrZFSHSxzUJe-Q612KTQ6kteicTsbTgAxslghSE0-eowSawnXivgjhGYZ4xxBLwUxqEZ7lz2LlG25iW1-mADEDGwM5InRWoZNkAsKIhjewenrQZKkFpLmEMwkFnF397UvLkex8yQqieylxg-GKzCgt1s/s975/1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="694" data-original-width="975" height="456" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4F4BMbk0OBp3qtzP06l1B-VLnnkz1GDK3lMSgfrZFSHSxzUJe-Q612KTQ6kteicTsbTgAxslghSE0-eowSawnXivgjhGYZ4xxBLwUxqEZ7lz2LlG25iW1-mADEDGwM5InRWoZNkAsKIhjewenrQZKkFpLmEMwkFnF397UvLkex8yQqieylxg-GKzCgt1s/w640-h456/1.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Here's another way to view the chance for rain. The percent chance of getting .50" or more? Odds look pretty good for most of Kansas, but again, we have to wait until the system actually develops to learn more. If the track of the system changes much, it will impact where the thunderstorms setup. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWu6uHSqM9rTGtF9RVbZNNS85Yveq6gRXJR7kveJ7eqN6GQC7sVo567IxRYkc7ifVWKjS9rWD0G_UO7J2y1GFMQ7EUmLk3IcCaz0xo3cIMZ5eeBVbGJORiLSizLkzuIAaz3PjYfuzie10Hvh4LIMKMOw7PErNvF4pXH-9O3sD9tbCwHJnDAMgj5HQJ5rnk/s950/AC%201.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="688" data-original-width="950" height="464" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWu6uHSqM9rTGtF9RVbZNNS85Yveq6gRXJR7kveJ7eqN6GQC7sVo567IxRYkc7ifVWKjS9rWD0G_UO7J2y1GFMQ7EUmLk3IcCaz0xo3cIMZ5eeBVbGJORiLSizLkzuIAaz3PjYfuzie10Hvh4LIMKMOw7PErNvF4pXH-9O3sD9tbCwHJnDAMgj5HQJ5rnk/w640-h464/AC%201.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><p>Yet another system may develop in the 3rd full week of October, but I wouldn't expect it to be anything significant. The map below would suggest any amounts of rain would be light (at best)</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAA50ndINCrwzsW16cUvuboN2L4CgSnAtQLe18b8ar7PK-N_RPdIDg5m4UjA2v3hby6FYDY3V4MB8wiGIuScXIAurKcMyye_chUYgP9F_r-oGWN5QXf6Eg02MmCy0nBpotizdruk3_ncME-iERv1ePkeRU_wx4D6oZ7oYXa8Fgb9TgNQWiY8rD9COxJtIE/s968/2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="701" data-original-width="968" height="464" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAA50ndINCrwzsW16cUvuboN2L4CgSnAtQLe18b8ar7PK-N_RPdIDg5m4UjA2v3hby6FYDY3V4MB8wiGIuScXIAurKcMyye_chUYgP9F_r-oGWN5QXf6Eg02MmCy0nBpotizdruk3_ncME-iERv1ePkeRU_wx4D6oZ7oYXa8Fgb9TgNQWiY8rD9COxJtIE/w640-h464/2.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>If you believe the data we have for the end of the month, another system may form over the western US. Another big low may form west of the Rockies, but that doesn't necessarily mean we will lock in on good rain for Kansas. It does give us hope - and it's better than having a high pressure ridge in the west.</p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqn8Z8173e7wAZep3sMHg7lIjKN4K1-G7toL5nlp3Vnl6NnHJKNCcMjYv0HGFZ1rSOvfF7fv-oqkgkYxSL7Q5E2UK7_-bJ_Ho9QUH-JBjXJuPdAUTvJjECaKyOJuwPvtiTABPMZsLltil8aW9hIRfjn07uMGJcr0sxs9UWcTIqexX6ozyHuD_gU9Ky24Y7/s953/8.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="688" data-original-width="953" height="462" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqn8Z8173e7wAZep3sMHg7lIjKN4K1-G7toL5nlp3Vnl6NnHJKNCcMjYv0HGFZ1rSOvfF7fv-oqkgkYxSL7Q5E2UK7_-bJ_Ho9QUH-JBjXJuPdAUTvJjECaKyOJuwPvtiTABPMZsLltil8aW9hIRfjn07uMGJcr0sxs9UWcTIqexX6ozyHuD_gU9Ky24Y7/w640-h462/8.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><p><b>Solar Eclipse - October 14:</b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_ppIDPA2OpTgnI9PyfZ0gbz6goQ9J0U-_5qbbfKOa-7DZdeMMWusWgAgOikKJPzx7DJhVms-RazufzSHinSStidUJoRDRHzTKFdkRU59UHKZWeITmJ1f9yhwFGA6EelrWybBiM-zDcH-h2ObbdgxILODhXo1RWyPY1BQHz80XEbxGp6zsIqs4d5sWK0On/s1920/Capture%202.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_ppIDPA2OpTgnI9PyfZ0gbz6goQ9J0U-_5qbbfKOa-7DZdeMMWusWgAgOikKJPzx7DJhVms-RazufzSHinSStidUJoRDRHzTKFdkRU59UHKZWeITmJ1f9yhwFGA6EelrWybBiM-zDcH-h2ObbdgxILODhXo1RWyPY1BQHz80XEbxGp6zsIqs4d5sWK0On/w640-h360/Capture%202.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>Most of you know by now a solar eclipse is happening this year. This is different than the total solar eclipse from 2017 because the moon is FARTHER from Earth, so it will not be able to completely cover the sun's disk. Therefore, there won't be the 360° sunset that you would experience during a total solar eclipse. Even in the path of this annular eclipse, only about 90% of the sun will be covered. The moon's orbit around Earth is elliptical. </p><p>Assuming the weather cooperates, you WILL be able to see it from Kansas. Here's what it should look like from Kansas where about 70% of the sun will be covered:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRS-CrQprauEm7src-FPtmguJ2RdFtYSEB7fMOLyB0ls5FgcAkFXp1y7e5ciheBvfoDv20RJVI7b0h5BJ6Qi8M_41z0uVTLvXaTOPSEc_lV7Au7SVaGst9neZNAbfajBZyiX8oCh027Yl3XFmI3HHdAcErFH1H4VAhN4qov3ITHi68FbgoYnYU43SgZBCm/s1698/6.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="805" data-original-width="1698" height="304" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRS-CrQprauEm7src-FPtmguJ2RdFtYSEB7fMOLyB0ls5FgcAkFXp1y7e5ciheBvfoDv20RJVI7b0h5BJ6Qi8M_41z0uVTLvXaTOPSEc_lV7Au7SVaGst9neZNAbfajBZyiX8oCh027Yl3XFmI3HHdAcErFH1H4VAhN4qov3ITHi68FbgoYnYU43SgZBCm/w640-h304/6.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>Now to the weather. If we end up with a storm system in the Plains around Wednesday, it may wobble around for a few days. I would still expect it to depart by Saturday, leaving us with a decent shot at optimal viewing. If you are planning to go to New Mexico or western areas of Texas for viewing, the weather in those areas looks okay too. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEik-rDcp_ddYSTm_nURocDI_-928WEmn2k7Y2ti4ViItzQXA4xeoX3ZIoZalf-7oIdEQ1nrab-BBHyFmhTZ5NH9K3Z_T0H9Kop-6pJPBUNtlnKQa9sSzaX63UyUcg9XNgAOrAgxVV3OnC3kl8jV29oiBCz2v2s7s5G2lrTRwq3ZTHQAG8MT2c_H-7_7Zxu-/s1920/AC%205.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEik-rDcp_ddYSTm_nURocDI_-928WEmn2k7Y2ti4ViItzQXA4xeoX3ZIoZalf-7oIdEQ1nrab-BBHyFmhTZ5NH9K3Z_T0H9Kop-6pJPBUNtlnKQa9sSzaX63UyUcg9XNgAOrAgxVV3OnC3kl8jV29oiBCz2v2s7s5G2lrTRwq3ZTHQAG8MT2c_H-7_7Zxu-/w640-h360/AC%205.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div>Have a great day.</div>Ross Janssenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09448734924733257676noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3466064543380551353.post-51548936666472706912023-09-29T07:15:00.003-06:002023-09-29T07:15:25.729-06:00October outlook includes an eclipse & frost talk<p>Our first round of October rain looks like it could be a statewide chance as we watch a system coming at us from the west and a cold front that should dive south. However, there's still enormous frustration with what's going on right now given that we can't seem to find a steady diet of moisture. And I have some concerns about the rain setup in the first week of the new month. More about that in a second. </p><p><b>Here's the drought map as we start October</b>: <b>81% in some level of drought with 2% at the highest level</b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWzNL9BeIfiVsjUMppTyC5CQ0EoYqb1MEOKOJsXE8cHqV9i_rAnOFN72LDRh1bTx8v4UjsCrXKEWbN388jiEeH6Wbr3qL53rcvpXVlsxNgqtqWNhBnUtzMmMBRGIXVol07kKpIPsFQRBa8rYlHFC8N4faiE_S0irO-pzpdYA0Ie158pQe7qLhRJm1QPE_R/s1042/2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="435" data-original-width="1042" height="268" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWzNL9BeIfiVsjUMppTyC5CQ0EoYqb1MEOKOJsXE8cHqV9i_rAnOFN72LDRh1bTx8v4UjsCrXKEWbN388jiEeH6Wbr3qL53rcvpXVlsxNgqtqWNhBnUtzMmMBRGIXVol07kKpIPsFQRBa8rYlHFC8N4faiE_S0irO-pzpdYA0Ie158pQe7qLhRJm1QPE_R/w640-h268/2.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>I've talked to several people that have said "a return to some mind of normal weather would be nice" - I couldn't agree more. Lately, just getting average rain would be a huge win because so many months this year, it hasn't been that way. </p><p><b>Wichita:</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIjcJluB0ZREL9edyiOWWCIKanP2N3tPAu5mZED55A1nPzI1gaavMxTBTw5CE0lAQV4EyKD_pr_Y5K7o8doLdhzuYHhBXOxnkq2_D4SdZgV5_ZQSHilmkJglpZJkYPHB1SNHOvPJJmaHjNAROjq92xG0bATQSIHJ4_jey6higlbt-sDijulJxQwyNJCtB3/s1920/Capture%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIjcJluB0ZREL9edyiOWWCIKanP2N3tPAu5mZED55A1nPzI1gaavMxTBTw5CE0lAQV4EyKD_pr_Y5K7o8doLdhzuYHhBXOxnkq2_D4SdZgV5_ZQSHilmkJglpZJkYPHB1SNHOvPJJmaHjNAROjq92xG0bATQSIHJ4_jey6higlbt-sDijulJxQwyNJCtB3/w640-h360/Capture%201.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p><b>Dodge City:</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjT-9505M-TJ7CF6MDb55KYBGpUks3-eHPK8f8_o7I4zjLIZvOvHJ380QIvZJZy3u0K22eZfxDWV6KCYlBZjiICavHIILi5mRRM4ixL1vx38VbXu6LxDPwcQJ6C5FhUXrmwJCS4HSjACgDE0b2QeT-EMaeauXu6ZuJB8yQCbIfxVwGaAnF8Q6T9RAX9RMpT/s1920/Capture%203.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjT-9505M-TJ7CF6MDb55KYBGpUks3-eHPK8f8_o7I4zjLIZvOvHJ380QIvZJZy3u0K22eZfxDWV6KCYlBZjiICavHIILi5mRRM4ixL1vx38VbXu6LxDPwcQJ6C5FhUXrmwJCS4HSjACgDE0b2QeT-EMaeauXu6ZuJB8yQCbIfxVwGaAnF8Q6T9RAX9RMpT/w640-h360/Capture%203.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p><b>Salina:</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzI5DdK91gx0BhgMcwUNWHUOzwMlplUIv1wIo3seOv1cnfGAzJwpmV_30b8YUduM2deA1QM3QPMf6P3oJUX0HmXUOK7aNZACByTsqwM54bpABYSj7rQpIvokSA7-K11HWCzH82WjEcpD4i1S_9ZhrolKT_j6DW0Ff5DWGlSciK3eLXUgut1e5PRxzA7p4_/s1920/Capture%203.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzI5DdK91gx0BhgMcwUNWHUOzwMlplUIv1wIo3seOv1cnfGAzJwpmV_30b8YUduM2deA1QM3QPMf6P3oJUX0HmXUOK7aNZACByTsqwM54bpABYSj7rQpIvokSA7-K11HWCzH82WjEcpD4i1S_9ZhrolKT_j6DW0Ff5DWGlSciK3eLXUgut1e5PRxzA7p4_/w640-h360/Capture%203.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p><b>First, let's look at October averages:</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNi8yrrqAEUx1FXYFbRZyivIyVO5dqi3jlF40CAqWfLPNecxM2jXwRyyiHzRoQ9dihacYscdZ07UH-qw7sij2p_6SuEFi-zSfAJjrDIYYLByedng77ZQoRkQUnwPLV-mJd5v9x3xRz0BpjPcjhOhpD0rVtmdzRBFYsaD7NuV9lWqFkCUmQTEytVQYkCPlQ/s1920/1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNi8yrrqAEUx1FXYFbRZyivIyVO5dqi3jlF40CAqWfLPNecxM2jXwRyyiHzRoQ9dihacYscdZ07UH-qw7sij2p_6SuEFi-zSfAJjrDIYYLByedng77ZQoRkQUnwPLV-mJd5v9x3xRz0BpjPcjhOhpD0rVtmdzRBFYsaD7NuV9lWqFkCUmQTEytVQYkCPlQ/w640-h360/1.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p>My concerns with the system arriving in early October is amount of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico AND the track of the overall system. As you'll see below, the moisture supply is probably enough to get some rain going, but a good strong connection to the Gulf is somewhat lacking. We are showing dew point numbers here, and we'd want them to be well above 60 if we could, and that better moisture is much farther south. Still, I think there is enough humidity in place to get some rain to show up.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRnWxiu17-5uWHy7p8p1SNWJ4BicTtWNMJ0iktRsUMW1xvQKOF2MdjNJizldgvUm0x7rmI2NXLb38x4GftIYzpneTffya3PtoMBt3oYOP8K_rEUH7q15PEW-syqtWLOsu3GPyM-92bnJokuLLcaxRP6VXYOaJhMuxQ_liEwgMpj0Z45VQvJxuMDmYwwsAn/s968/3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="691" data-original-width="968" height="456" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRnWxiu17-5uWHy7p8p1SNWJ4BicTtWNMJ0iktRsUMW1xvQKOF2MdjNJizldgvUm0x7rmI2NXLb38x4GftIYzpneTffya3PtoMBt3oYOP8K_rEUH7q15PEW-syqtWLOsu3GPyM-92bnJokuLLcaxRP6VXYOaJhMuxQ_liEwgMpj0Z45VQvJxuMDmYwwsAn/w640-h456/3.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>The other concern is where the main system is tracking - which will probably go through Wyoming and on to the north. It would be better if it were about 100-200 miles farther south, but that seems unlikely given recent trends.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfwaK5mW1UY8vrQ1Gn9ovsPW0lKfwYrMnOwpICE31el-Iib1WEMCmSpIG_1DRnPZE6MOC736OelXx_6o3VbP8bQYSdrc-w3sk3DxTzQK57CIOlMOf2NHhxwr1rBPJHBKihtU2iiBYN347GGsWzNQYuzbUw8gSWwxrrpGI4hnRx5A5HSbPFnjgx8UR5NgrV/s971/4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="695" data-original-width="971" height="458" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfwaK5mW1UY8vrQ1Gn9ovsPW0lKfwYrMnOwpICE31el-Iib1WEMCmSpIG_1DRnPZE6MOC736OelXx_6o3VbP8bQYSdrc-w3sk3DxTzQK57CIOlMOf2NHhxwr1rBPJHBKihtU2iiBYN347GGsWzNQYuzbUw8gSWwxrrpGI4hnRx5A5HSbPFnjgx8UR5NgrV/w640-h458/4.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p><b>October outlook:</b></p><p>I just don't think the new month is going to be what we need or want - yet. After the initial round of rain, another lengthy dry spell looks to unfold for October week 2 and possibly week 3. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrk-Vu35SBG_MgKqqNQwH-it41fQ_GsOp23ZDcGNum6i99dI6cR28P1upBMPZz7qzqlxWm6_7GdLsJdjKTViJp9bHGxnWfCFYhMPsRR5FUvv5Oo7aYSY_QmVWiqraYrPIGS3AVL5wG2w9JjMWCWNlG6FQcJuneNGJX1anhZtuq2pBTzAs-7LxziW4NrTp5/s1920/Jake%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrk-Vu35SBG_MgKqqNQwH-it41fQ_GsOp23ZDcGNum6i99dI6cR28P1upBMPZz7qzqlxWm6_7GdLsJdjKTViJp9bHGxnWfCFYhMPsRR5FUvv5Oo7aYSY_QmVWiqraYrPIGS3AVL5wG2w9JjMWCWNlG6FQcJuneNGJX1anhZtuq2pBTzAs-7LxziW4NrTp5/w640-h360/Jake%201.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>The entire month may end up near to slightly above, but will all of that come at the beginning of the month? We have to remember that in October, patterns are evolving, the jet stream is strengthening, and some of our longer range stuff struggles to handle the changing season. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLlH4jrnePZHaZN3K3sD7Lk01CQ9eCvvCIwEIUqVkZd1pc5yZ6xkCR7RopkVFR_LPFwyg9MMqXitdYHtfiJbok6hLax8RyeFsBgMs4Okq8Ye6CudQ76Nwsm0gXc0mI3n3L4EXk0FCsHpyB3d6Ekg1KQgaAIHyHQ5DTLaZ7rIsVlotpuv1mx0WHSlf4I0VU/s977/AC%201.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="680" data-original-width="977" height="446" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLlH4jrnePZHaZN3K3sD7Lk01CQ9eCvvCIwEIUqVkZd1pc5yZ6xkCR7RopkVFR_LPFwyg9MMqXitdYHtfiJbok6hLax8RyeFsBgMs4Okq8Ye6CudQ76Nwsm0gXc0mI3n3L4EXk0FCsHpyB3d6Ekg1KQgaAIHyHQ5DTLaZ7rIsVlotpuv1mx0WHSlf4I0VU/w640-h446/AC%201.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>October Temperatures (on some higher level of confidence here) will most likely end up warmer than average when all is said and done. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUsWUjNU181gp0-yRAJjpLqp9QE0Pip7v_aHjB9dFiUIVVNaYIel6bFySeEVim5pAFi5xNOJCPP-dPMIFN8x_xH4Q4_lmAdb9jEWStOjjtkeZ0WsLLq9wZ6T8lOzFnmVaPh0676QzVYKJ8p__lEiKQQJLgtTx_MTdgL2uzpuPK5D-HXZEINx72xzF5t8sU/s957/Capture%206.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="693" data-original-width="957" height="464" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUsWUjNU181gp0-yRAJjpLqp9QE0Pip7v_aHjB9dFiUIVVNaYIel6bFySeEVim5pAFi5xNOJCPP-dPMIFN8x_xH4Q4_lmAdb9jEWStOjjtkeZ0WsLLq9wZ6T8lOzFnmVaPh0676QzVYKJ8p__lEiKQQJLgtTx_MTdgL2uzpuPK5D-HXZEINx72xzF5t8sU/w640-h464/Capture%206.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>As for our first fall frost, I'm not convinced it will be early this year. Northern Kansas can get the first frost by mid-October, but this year, I think it will be later than average and we may not get it until later in the month or even into November. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmmitgAeZ354FY3-d2OvrTDiV-q0AJa-1os4MStcpNUV0sLfvZafm_ji8YtqyYUfLNli1NKebcb-EohMCwCcOdwk2Y5PJgjVt6pPx7KyHki0CUnjGx8yHedCt0oKzm-jB1zj6iLT4_mSphtGMXIA6dzjwJfuKWQigQD0moXXWwsREE6LuG1uIKkKLsBrsw/s640/5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="360" data-original-width="640" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmmitgAeZ354FY3-d2OvrTDiV-q0AJa-1os4MStcpNUV0sLfvZafm_ji8YtqyYUfLNli1NKebcb-EohMCwCcOdwk2Y5PJgjVt6pPx7KyHki0CUnjGx8yHedCt0oKzm-jB1zj6iLT4_mSphtGMXIA6dzjwJfuKWQigQD0moXXWwsREE6LuG1uIKkKLsBrsw/w640-h360/5.png" width="640" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p><b>Annular eclipse:</b> Don't forget, this is coming up on October 14th. DON'T LOOK DIRECTLY AT THE SUN. If you want to get closer to the path of totality (the sun won't be completely blocked), you'll need to head farther west. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfaNMHdwlvtURCQr86pvtrTsImBBEA6KMU42HoHzT9v9Tm9-ioAteOq1I_GL6gGq-lt9tkj4Rz8cPFprGqC1NDfYADLoZjAgDTsytgxoZqid0LbHEoat9c7CHQYzCLLyCiYOYI7okwuFGGMd2oDXpfVsTfUW_dwWkLqgymvKPXWz7W6-A5N4mwChIabI2z/s1920/AC%209.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfaNMHdwlvtURCQr86pvtrTsImBBEA6KMU42HoHzT9v9Tm9-ioAteOq1I_GL6gGq-lt9tkj4Rz8cPFprGqC1NDfYADLoZjAgDTsytgxoZqid0LbHEoat9c7CHQYzCLLyCiYOYI7okwuFGGMd2oDXpfVsTfUW_dwWkLqgymvKPXWz7W6-A5N4mwChIabI2z/w640-h360/AC%209.png" width="640" /></a></div>Ross Janssenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09448734924733257676noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3466064543380551353.post-17851980266224666972023-09-21T06:11:00.002-06:002023-09-21T06:20:05.613-06:00Easily discouraged, but still reason to hope<p>It's really easy to get discouraged with the rain (or lack thereof in this case). Late last week, I tried to highlight reasons to be optimistic about upcoming moisture and back at the beginning of the month, we were quite hopeful the end of September would be more productive. And as you have probably come to understand, that's not what will actually play out. This happens and I understand the frustration. I will say in my experience, our computer models tend to really struggle in autumn (and sometimes spring too) as the atmosphere undergoes its seasonal transition. For whatever reason, once you get beyond day 4, there tends to be all kinds of errors. This time of year, the jet stream is strengthening, and the temperature contrasts are more robust. Models can really be misleading in fall and spring. </p><p>The pattern for the last week of September showcases a building high pressure (or ridge) which is NOT favorable for moisture. This is different than the upper high we had back in August that led to relentless heat. In late September, it's not the same magnitude and the end result will be above average temperatures, but not record highs and 100s. Thank goodness. Take note of the big "low" sitting just off the West coast. This may be a familiar sight as we head into October. Areas west of the Rockies may get some very good moisture in the next several weeks.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQ684yGcTBXcz9_SSgmo-IPZfZxMev-WSlCeaKDQ_sgs75FAy5qZhp8VGXjExlCRGPGuf5j_cYZL_24gSQXl5NJvDeTolzuqT9NqdFG2Su5OlV6B40xV4g4jPy0y5yeqEBhkZCr5IuB8_izLcfMNGlvZ-w3CXzxGTRRVwYpYbAGRoZoVVL13dWGV9ymBOv/s1920/1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQ684yGcTBXcz9_SSgmo-IPZfZxMev-WSlCeaKDQ_sgs75FAy5qZhp8VGXjExlCRGPGuf5j_cYZL_24gSQXl5NJvDeTolzuqT9NqdFG2Su5OlV6B40xV4g4jPy0y5yeqEBhkZCr5IuB8_izLcfMNGlvZ-w3CXzxGTRRVwYpYbAGRoZoVVL13dWGV9ymBOv/w640-h360/1.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>Unfortunately, with the pattern that is about to play out, dry weather will be quite common across Kansas. Areas north of us will likely be dry too. Best moisture coming up will go south and east of Kansas.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXzHQTYI6TmM6pe9TB4pN4z8cJvxKLVoBhAnGnLpMcx1PKdHoAGn1wWH8zfGe9ChqQqYg5_rNFb6830vtpwrdoEfOq8dcH90MOBpb_rM3MqTpiyNdtLVCKC8UUlBFYPEl_3cra8YzdJXeRkZl5g0G8erzWNqwsDEQLUS7CFqrJT_GsbQHNzX_3nee0ZCNR/s1920/Capture%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXzHQTYI6TmM6pe9TB4pN4z8cJvxKLVoBhAnGnLpMcx1PKdHoAGn1wWH8zfGe9ChqQqYg5_rNFb6830vtpwrdoEfOq8dcH90MOBpb_rM3MqTpiyNdtLVCKC8UUlBFYPEl_3cra8YzdJXeRkZl5g0G8erzWNqwsDEQLUS7CFqrJT_GsbQHNzX_3nee0ZCNR/w640-h360/Capture%201.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>There's still reason to be optimistic, but I understand that most of you are fitting into the category of "believe when I see it", and I don't blame you. This has been a tough place to squeeze out good, quality moisture. All I can do is show you what we are seeing in some of the longer-range data.</p><p><b>Early October:</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgP5B-X3HivgnUynU57uLR6FcE2C9JieH-xtZOzG4_D5XQLFfqMf9kthi4vjS5KxlQMb2LjpqKGgEK2n_BeBnBSWy0SuMs0QjYq31fyoPh1PQzPR6gKjciEoDa7JupDiQBOO1c7WxXyMTDt8_CYRJDOvC88ZeVPjk9-kMzo_4mGhBQaH-Xq4VtYjcKL4VI/s964/1.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="634" data-original-width="964" height="420" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgP5B-X3HivgnUynU57uLR6FcE2C9JieH-xtZOzG4_D5XQLFfqMf9kthi4vjS5KxlQMb2LjpqKGgEK2n_BeBnBSWy0SuMs0QjYq31fyoPh1PQzPR6gKjciEoDa7JupDiQBOO1c7WxXyMTDt8_CYRJDOvC88ZeVPjk9-kMzo_4mGhBQaH-Xq4VtYjcKL4VI/w640-h420/1.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>I still see signs of persistent troughs (or low-pressure systems) coming through the West. That's going to keep western sections of the US much cooler than average for the next several weeks. Will that active weather reach the central Plains? It looked like that might happen for the end of September, but in fact, that's not working out how we hoped. </p><p><b>Into mid-October:</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKdyjFGQRscSYc08ZVNVP-x3matuLr-qEhcm69WBooXp-ltG0b0woC9_FA5p3z1DpFtZHwTQLgCcbKGuUXKZ0bLYnsULdgivPV5SoMN-AFOLDHXde2HF8mnvvL7HICHkrjngonltDF6l9dI18TnFIHVPDFQER_i1CeucxvOhWw06kslR1XmavW83bbbwZr/s984/2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="808" data-original-width="984" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKdyjFGQRscSYc08ZVNVP-x3matuLr-qEhcm69WBooXp-ltG0b0woC9_FA5p3z1DpFtZHwTQLgCcbKGuUXKZ0bLYnsULdgivPV5SoMN-AFOLDHXde2HF8mnvvL7HICHkrjngonltDF6l9dI18TnFIHVPDFQER_i1CeucxvOhWw06kslR1XmavW83bbbwZr/w640-h526/2.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>Still seeing signs of rain into the second week of October. Please remember that "average" rainfall for this period of October 8-15 is only going to be around an inch or so, as we move deeper into fall, rainfall amounts tend to decrease. I would expect this will once again be courtesy of a western low pressure that tracks through this region. </p><p><b>October as a whole:</b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixsETcFyTmRXF-2eOveLqXd2iPRD4F12IvrmWQ_pSa1568GC-esowYiBqzoJW29pwilAxysyRZxBXTbGVEIwqTA7Cm6oNvT2XZAb5_HLulT32vbOzCpzgK7DsxxevrPJUMc7e6gA9xd4P1tM-wDHRD4LU2LfKEaku_tsbujY1gs1WVskxvV77tMaMuRhf1/s946/3.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="673" data-original-width="946" height="456" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixsETcFyTmRXF-2eOveLqXd2iPRD4F12IvrmWQ_pSa1568GC-esowYiBqzoJW29pwilAxysyRZxBXTbGVEIwqTA7Cm6oNvT2XZAb5_HLulT32vbOzCpzgK7DsxxevrPJUMc7e6gA9xd4P1tM-wDHRD4LU2LfKEaku_tsbujY1gs1WVskxvV77tMaMuRhf1/w640-h456/3.PNG" width="640" /></a></div><br />All I can say is keep your hopes alive and go ahead and get next years wheat crop in the ground. Rain will come (hopefully sooner rather than later). <p></p><div>Thanks for reading. </div>Ross Janssenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09448734924733257676noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3466064543380551353.post-52485127554339212182023-09-15T07:09:00.002-06:002023-09-15T07:09:12.688-06:00For those who came by the fair booth asking for rain...<p>If you came by the state fair booth and said hello, thanks for taking time to do so. The overwhelming ask was "where's the rain", or "when are you going to start letting it rain more". All I could do is smile and say - it's coming. In my last update, we highlighted El Nino and the prospects of wetter weather coming to the Plains, and the maps are showing just that. </p><p>Here's quick rain summary of September 9-14. Finally getting some rain in places that have been missed for the last 30-45 days. Heaviest (once again) - western Kansas. Just look at that bullseye from west central down through the southwest. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj95WE1QUG9b-5ArrmPz3mC4p_qWIYhEWch_7sx_Uh-eCG6XUW5qoF4JALynPbURi0yaxb_tE8njN3DohE5uaB_wZ2JaAplJ82PARplqb7YzO0cLxHMOwGtDEOQJGO6FGYXj3vbdU7mpghIMavpzHJ1DARej3c_N_ZORJ9Sxnl2j0OZexm51iHELluv3tDX/s1920/AC%209.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj95WE1QUG9b-5ArrmPz3mC4p_qWIYhEWch_7sx_Uh-eCG6XUW5qoF4JALynPbURi0yaxb_tE8njN3DohE5uaB_wZ2JaAplJ82PARplqb7YzO0cLxHMOwGtDEOQJGO6FGYXj3vbdU7mpghIMavpzHJ1DARej3c_N_ZORJ9Sxnl2j0OZexm51iHELluv3tDX/w640-h360/AC%209.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>Still the latest drought map out shows no major change from the first map that came out in September.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIBHxYwFwHBLPj-Leac5rWpM0hY_MEKD8VJj1CiJeq8EiXJgsNK4hUwD5LF_Y4rfahJWYT9adPPmythBv7WSTR7VcnNoDjXe22uaWf5g44tcwF-vwNA5tT7OaQjC22s2K4RaEuoFeMNuQaV1N1Q1FdHUY7Za4QWMjmH5gOHhO1lIhbKL31MN_LSEuQ61K1/s1920/Capture%204.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIBHxYwFwHBLPj-Leac5rWpM0hY_MEKD8VJj1CiJeq8EiXJgsNK4hUwD5LF_Y4rfahJWYT9adPPmythBv7WSTR7VcnNoDjXe22uaWf5g44tcwF-vwNA5tT7OaQjC22s2K4RaEuoFeMNuQaV1N1Q1FdHUY7Za4QWMjmH5gOHhO1lIhbKL31MN_LSEuQ61K1/w640-h360/Capture%204.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>What jumps out to us next is a fairly sizeable low pressure system coming across the west. This could be a combo of two systems merging (one from the Pacific Northwest and one from California). Either way, we should have a rather robust setup for rain and one that may very well cover the region. Here's what we are seeing at roughly 18,000 feet - see for yourself the big upper low west of the Rockies.<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4oEDhGzMttmTpZT9GdNaJwnuBVfAMFJjfIrME-k3a6Nm5BqUSkkph1bVpRehvkiiR2eHAIzZVm8aTelHOuB9XmBUNs1PKNCwU1Ajh2AmKflCQHeVOC2ai1-Tv7VooqqRzOiy2otZdSkP5fI6h1Z7ycNOt9BTx-eBzMEz-wyvm_jLdjTxQyP2rx8ubLKp5/s1920/Capture%206.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4oEDhGzMttmTpZT9GdNaJwnuBVfAMFJjfIrME-k3a6Nm5BqUSkkph1bVpRehvkiiR2eHAIzZVm8aTelHOuB9XmBUNs1PKNCwU1Ajh2AmKflCQHeVOC2ai1-Tv7VooqqRzOiy2otZdSkP5fI6h1Z7ycNOt9BTx-eBzMEz-wyvm_jLdjTxQyP2rx8ubLKp5/w640-h360/Capture%206.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>Meanwhile near the ground, the uninterrupted supply of Gulf of Mexico humidity feeds right up into the Plains states. That should help make the thunderstorms more efficient rain makers. </p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUKANgNmo-Q-shBG6JIj9G-nCyfrhR-TddS20-fHzf_mc2WhXY9LFBEZss_2Z-x-TMv7OpQrf-MECG8sFwKqnJQBxfLKctsXGpm4lQ2SqTLWnQfjNtpWXpIPScpuHAL_4JlzVFVwkgxbuAHPchPIzACjgMor2JhtlKVz1kmW2dnQ4uHSVTOznbaccdNiaD/s1920/andover2.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUKANgNmo-Q-shBG6JIj9G-nCyfrhR-TddS20-fHzf_mc2WhXY9LFBEZss_2Z-x-TMv7OpQrf-MECG8sFwKqnJQBxfLKctsXGpm4lQ2SqTLWnQfjNtpWXpIPScpuHAL_4JlzVFVwkgxbuAHPchPIzACjgMor2JhtlKVz1kmW2dnQ4uHSVTOznbaccdNiaD/w640-h360/andover2.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>All of this leading to what should be above average rains (September 17-24):</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxOJUOSzfhlouW4v70xYsOFZPDrBV6kMZum2iZw3ZifHo5HMg73jBYe1u-soYUQYOR0M0l991FJJKCTH3ZcyYKVCZEH1lt1h6TA__TWugzp7ZjMhcEiRWIqs5ya5M1V1x8ObIBw16OotJX7bvtktC_Xc0UfWVcV7kBlw40AYgYy877cmEiclv0pjp4kVeE/s948/2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="688" data-original-width="948" height="464" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxOJUOSzfhlouW4v70xYsOFZPDrBV6kMZum2iZw3ZifHo5HMg73jBYe1u-soYUQYOR0M0l991FJJKCTH3ZcyYKVCZEH1lt1h6TA__TWugzp7ZjMhcEiRWIqs5ya5M1V1x8ObIBw16OotJX7bvtktC_Xc0UfWVcV7kBlw40AYgYy877cmEiclv0pjp4kVeE/w640-h464/2.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Another way we could look at the rain potential. What is the % chance of getting at least 1" or more between now and the end of this month? Not bad for the extreme-exceptional drought areas:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR10SZkAFc5EPGnXzL9qwB_wAxWXEdMwXt-MqgiPbe1Mk_JmKd4WOsmQSPHKCajeUy1whvSzEUFVC18Zac67Qcwo81XZ-mzYl_VfWQcRCiGju5afFGrH2VEghjmX3FtvsBjJv3Hd5WDepMzR2r53I5y-qtGxrMJ02Xfe-ghj3gnu5LV84HB8De16pcCegU/s984/5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="808" data-original-width="984" height="526" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR10SZkAFc5EPGnXzL9qwB_wAxWXEdMwXt-MqgiPbe1Mk_JmKd4WOsmQSPHKCajeUy1whvSzEUFVC18Zac67Qcwo81XZ-mzYl_VfWQcRCiGju5afFGrH2VEghjmX3FtvsBjJv3Hd5WDepMzR2r53I5y-qtGxrMJ02Xfe-ghj3gnu5LV84HB8De16pcCegU/w640-h526/5.png" width="640" /></a></div><p>And take a first look at early October - more rain? </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlENPjfBUM-_OZdr0W4blSwdiqwgbOmkrRYYjdNZnEToI5ojSO2VOjYWHn4G-g5nJ0KtUYmVH7SUbwJcDnK0Zfmr6dSQUA1SX3vNgQY_2oREtCe4dgZ8Xvkf6OR9UYWObot78JKVk_nm1QhLFY9ZzKGGMCpFeTvQCrSu15givTXWvt5aNgaHRiwpn3DqbB/s970/3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="671" data-original-width="970" height="442" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlENPjfBUM-_OZdr0W4blSwdiqwgbOmkrRYYjdNZnEToI5ojSO2VOjYWHn4G-g5nJ0KtUYmVH7SUbwJcDnK0Zfmr6dSQUA1SX3vNgQY_2oREtCe4dgZ8Xvkf6OR9UYWObot78JKVk_nm1QhLFY9ZzKGGMCpFeTvQCrSu15givTXWvt5aNgaHRiwpn3DqbB/w640-h442/3.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p>This time of year, the fronts and low pressure systems are getting stronger. While fall is not a particularly wet time of year, the right setup with upper air support can yield some nice moisture. Back in 2018, we had a VERY wet October (in fact, one of the wettest on record for many areas in Kansas), and the rain amounts were around 5-6 inches. In springtime, that wouldn't be quite enough to even crack top 10 wettest months for May and June. </p><p>However, just a quick glimpse at something that caught my eye for early October. We may have a very progressive pattern (one where we see fast moving, low pressure systems tracking west to east) Plenty can change between now and then, but my point here is that we have reason to hope more timely rain is coming that will continue to fight the drought conditions we've been experiencing for months. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiN8Hjlk4BLHWzl_0FOJde76YiFPeKydMQjZhQiaVA3Vjl_BftKImzanZceH99YwJfVMsEHkCd7m7Gu33CoyzYP2g1soMdIAEbNVfXNzAMzKhAblXqJVDmVHeEvM-KIAFtKoU9GBrh_9BwZBRK2LKYSKIbNQ58c6V-4B07C542bD_7f_zkfCBmB-nASA8WY/s971/Capture%201.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="689" data-original-width="971" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiN8Hjlk4BLHWzl_0FOJde76YiFPeKydMQjZhQiaVA3Vjl_BftKImzanZceH99YwJfVMsEHkCd7m7Gu33CoyzYP2g1soMdIAEbNVfXNzAMzKhAblXqJVDmVHeEvM-KIAFtKoU9GBrh_9BwZBRK2LKYSKIbNQ58c6V-4B07C542bD_7f_zkfCBmB-nASA8WY/w640-h454/Capture%201.png" width="640" /></a></div><p></p>Thanks for coming by here for a few minutes. Have a good day.Ross Janssenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09448734924733257676noreply@blogger.com0