Winter Forecast

One of the projects I'm working on is coming up with a winter forecast for 2011-2012. Making long range forecasts are not easy, but this Sunday night at 10 p.m., I'll be talking about what kind of weather I think Kansas will be seeing this winter. Yes, we know it will get cold and we are bound to get some snow, but how much snow and what are the chances we'll get ice? There are several factors to take into account when coming up with a long range outlook, and I'll go over some of them in the broadcast.


Here is the winter forecast we put out last year in November. It was very accurate with Wichita ending the season with just over 17 inches of snow. And there was one morning in February where the temperature dipped down to -17. We also had a couple of record setting 70 degree days that followed the -17. So wild weather is common in the winter months here in Kansas. We see it other times of the year too, but big fluctuations in temperatures are common in the cold season around here.

Millie and I visited Clark Davidson Elementary school on Monday. Here is a picture from our visit with the 1st graders.

Crepuscular rays

We are all familiar with a "ray" of sunshine, but there is a different kind of ray that you may not be familiar with. Crepuscular rays are common sights at sunrise and sunset, or near mountainous terrain where the rays of sunlight are actually blocked, creating a shadow. This satellite image from the International Space Station shows how the crepuscular rays are actually parallel, but when viewed from the ground, it appears the rays radiate out from the center of light source. This illusion is caused by distance and perspective in which we are viewing the light.

Our weather situation in Kansas is about to get active. Several storm systems will be crossing the central and western US through the first 10 days of November. Let's hope it cuts into the drought situation a little more, as much of the state could still benefit from precipitation. Of course this time of the year, it could be rain or snow, so check back for updates.