Pattern changing fast - first winter storm?

Meteorological fall ends on November 30th and this is one of the warmest ones on record for much of Kansas. Is anybody surprised? Everything about 2026 has been warm and feels record setting, so this may not be that surprising.

Storm Team 12 is working on a winter forecast that we will reveal right after Thanksgiving. There's plenty to take into consideration with the very strong El Nino, but by most metrics, it is already reached its peak and will start weakening by mid-late winter. 

December:

March:

We are definitely seeing the Arctic Oscillation (AO) going negative in late November and early December. See the trend below. That by itself does NOT guarantee that cold weather is going to overwhelm us, but it does give some credibility to temperatures trending much lower in the coming weeks and out into December. Here are two different examples of the AO as we get into late November and early December. 

Notice how both the blue and green lines trend lower on the right side of the graph. That's suggesting a negative AO, which has a tendency to allow for larger scale cold air to drop south across the country. It doesn't always help predict how long the cold spells will last but is a piece of the forecasting puzzle.

Next big system prior to Thanksgiving:

This is one that will be pretty potent as it crosses our immediate area. It should be able to latch on to some colder air from the northern Rockies and parts of Canada, so it's possible it could have a pretty big wintry component even if the track doesn't bring snow to Kansas.

Shortly after that, I'd be on the lookout for early December to have another large system coming through the Southwest and into the Plains. The storm tracks this winter are going to favor the central and southern Plains, which is typical in El Nino winters. I'd give this one a decent shot at bringing snow to Kansas. It's very possible (right on schedule) that our first snow for much of the Plains may arrive in the first 10 days of December. 

Notice (on the map below) how early December looks quite warm across Canada! That will probably be a common theme this winter too, but the shades of "blue" across the southern tier of the United States clearly resemble where the precipitation will be helping to keep things quite chilly.

Thanks for reading!

November gets more interesting

We are wrapping up another warmer than average month (surprise surprise), with many locations having a top 10 warmest Octobers on record. Here's a map showing October rainfall around the state. Most areas come out wetter than normal, but some drought remains over the central and southern parts of the state:

The El Nino is about to peak soon, but the impacts will be felt for several months to come (likely through spring 2027)

Here's the prediction on El Nino - notice how the line starts coming back down as we move deeper into winter and early spring. 

Lately, we've had some notable systems arrive from the Southwest with tropical connections that lead to significant rainfall. While they have been quite productive in generating some moisture, they haven't been that intense. However, that will start to change as winter gets closer and we will have a much stronger southern branch of the jet stream this winter (that's courtesy of El Nino).

Just look at the difference in 60 days across the Equator (south of Hawaii).

This first image is late August:

60 days later as we end October:

This is what will help to energize the southern branch of the jet stream (called the subtropical jet) as the winter sets in. We'll likely have one system right after another through November and December, so things will get very interesting as we continue. We start November off with some remaining drought conditions in central and southern Kansas, but I'm sure that will be wiped out very soon.

November Temperatures:

Again, we go into another month where things look warmer than average overall. This should put to rest the fears of us going straight into winter. We still have some pleasant fall days coming, but remember average highs drop into the 50s soon, so our "warmer" days are likely highs in the 60s - not 80s like we saw so much of in October. And this is an overall picture of the month, so we know there will be some cool stretches mixed in. Look back into the Southwest part of the US. That clearly resembles where our major storm systems will organize before kicking out across the Plains. 

November Rainfall:

On average, November is NOT a particularly wet month (on average). However, this will be another month with wetter than average conditions. The month of October was slightly wetter than normal for most of the state. Several locations reported in with at least .50" above average on moisture, and November continues the trend of active weather. 

Here are the average rainfall numbers for different areas of Kansas for November:

1. Salina: 1.22", Wichita: 1.36", Hutchinson: 1.12", Hays: .90", Goodland: .54",                Dodge City: .80", Garden City: .42"

Again, I would expect most of the state to receive better than average moisture when the month is over.

It's reasonable to expect several upper low pressure systems to form off the West coast and get into the desert Southwest. Another area that could be quite active in November will be the deep South. The Northern Plains and Rockies could be quite warm in November and also drier. That's pretty typical of El Nino. 

Our winter outlook is coming right around Thanksgiving. We already have some pretty good ideas on the season ahead, which might be exciting for some of you, but others may be moaning and groaning. Stay tuned...

Get ready for more active days - preview of November

One storm system after another - that might be a common occurrence as we continue deeper into fall and winter. This latest round of active weather is a little earlier than I thought it might be, but I haven't heard too many complaints (unless you're a farmer still trying to plant wheat). At any rate, more low pressure systems are favored across the western US, and I believe this will continue right into November.

Let's take a look at what's developing soon:

Models seem to be in agreement that another system will be approaching the central Plains around the 24th/25th - with it, more rain and thunder (not likely snow).

What follows could be another system for Halloween:

Note the blue in the Southwest - that represents low pressure and if it ejects into the Plains (track is often key), it could easily result in more active weather right at the end of the month. Given the temperatures that are forecast during that time, I would not expect it to be snow either. The northern branch of the jet stream remains north of Kansas at this particular time, so a big shot of cold, Canadian air would be highly unlikely.

If we look at the 7 day rainfall (center on October 29th), you'll see the central and southern US is favored to have more rain. Exact amounts aren't known, but it is something to watch as we approach the timeframe

And over the next 30 days (October 22 - November 22), this map reflects what could be a very energetic southern branch of the jet stream (a result of the El Nino)

Temperatures:

I've had so many tell me they are concerned about a sprint into winter, but I still don't see that happening. There are some cool or chilly spells mixed in, but a long stretch of colder than average weather just doesn't show up in the models just yet.

The month of November doesn't look warm, but it also doesn't look bitterly cold either. Things may just average out for the month, which would mean more days with highs in the 50s and 60s than anything else. 

While it does get a little into the weeds of meteorology, one of the things that we'll come back to again over the next few months is the Arctic Oscillation. When it goes negative, the chances of having more cold air slip south from Canada and the Arctic increases. When it remains positive, there are much better odds of it being "milder". There is a slight drop off (going negative) toward the end of October. That doesn't mean it will instantly turn cold, but it might indicate some chillier weather to start November. Maybe that's when we will have our first hard freeze statewide.

Thanks for reading!