October outlook with El Niño in the headlines

We've heard so much about the El Niño reaching historic magnitudes, and it may still intensify a bit more between now and December. Depending on what you read (and believe), some of the headlines could be a bit alarming. The strength of this El Niño is similar to what we had in 2015/16 but appears to be stronger than the one we had in the late 90s (1997-98). 

Here are the water temperatures compared to average (much of that water south of Hawaii is about 85°F):

If we look back at previous winter seasons (I looked at the period of November - February), what we find is that most of them tend to be average or wetter than average. The numbers listed on the maps represent above or below moisture (compared to the average). See the examples below:

2015/16: 

1997/98:

1982/83: 

This is just some initial research and some food for thought as we get closer. There's still so much to watch and interpret so that we might have a better winter prediction, but it is a very common question this time of year "what's the winter going to be like". In classic El Niño winters, the southern branch of the jet stream is much more productive and active. 

October thoughts:

Temperatures: 

I'd expect the month overall to be near or warmer than average, with cool weather in control for the eastern 1/2 of the country. If the upper-level winds are coming out of the northwest, this temperature setup makes total sense.

The first half of the month looks pretty quiet (DRY). I don't think we are seeing the full impact of El Niño on the pattern yet - that's to come later in the year. And if you are wondering about early frost this year, I'm not convinced that will happen either. I'd expect either an average first fall frost (usually mid-late October) or even later this year. 

Persistent riding (high pressure) may setup across the Rockies for a few weeks, so our upper-level winds may be more west to northwest, which tends to limit rainfall for the Plains. I'm not saying we won't have any rain at all, but it does look drier than average for the first few weeks of the month.

It looks like late October turns wetter - something the models have been indicating now for quite some time. This active and wetter period is likely to continue into November, so that may be the earliest onset of the El Niño impact for the Plains. 

Thanks for reading! Safe to say, things will get much more interesting in the coming months, and drought will likely have a significant setback in the weeks/months to come.

Frustration maxing out in early September

Everyone seems to be upset (including myself, I guess) about this latest stretch of weather. This is so reminiscent of 2011 when we had over 50 - 100° days and it didn't seem like it would ever end. High pressure would wobble around maybe 60 miles over the course of two weeks. It finally did come to an end on September 4th when highs fell into the 70s and 80s. That September didn't have much rain, but just watching summer exit that year was beyond welcome. 

This summer (June 1 - August 31) ranks about where 2012 did, but the summer of 2011 was still MUCH hotter statewide. 

Right here at the start of September and we are already watching another record: most 100° days in the month. Much of the state averages roughly 1-3 days of 100° temperatures, but this year will be an exception. 

Rainfall - what rainfall, right? Since the beginning of June, areas of the state that have been wetter are across the northern sections, while central and southern Kansas remain in pretty rough shape. (compared to average):

And now the 60 day (compared to average) shows many more areas of red - representing just how dry July and August turned out:

Now on to September: this month still looks warmer than average! It's getting a kickstart with the very hot weather here at the beginning of the month, and even though it will cool down by mid-September, the 30-day period overall is warm.

Rainfall - don't expect huge amounts this month (September generally is not a wet month) with roughly 1.50-3" on average (lower amounts in western Kansas). Best chances for moisture come in the 2nd full week of the month as the riding breaks down across the Plains. It's entirely possible this will be tied to a cold front, so it may turn out to be "scattered" rather than widespread, but odds are better for moisture mid-month.

Late September looks drier to me, with possible weak high pressure returning to the area. 

Thanks for reading! One extreme follows another, and with such a strong El Nino underway, there is reason to remain hopeful for change.

Amid the heatwave, there's this...

It sure seems like all of the 100s that Kansas might have missed out on last summer are showing up this month. Much of the state is already at their average number of 100 days, and we're still looking at another heat wave in week 3 of the month (Aug. 16-22). However, this looks like it will be the last big stand of the "heat dome", so let's get to some better news.

When I wrote up the August outlook, I said September looked encouraging for rainfall, and that still appears to be the case. With the increasing El Niño, which I'll show in just a second, we are likely to start seeing the southern branch of the jet stream getting more and more active as we get into fall. I would assume this will come too late for many fall crops.

Latest drought map (August 13th):

Much of the state had tremendous rainfall in June, making it a top 10 wettest for several parts of the state. July started drying out and as expected, August has gone hot and dry statewide. But as most of us know, one extreme can follow another, and while I'm not saying we'll have flooding in 30 days, a change is coming.

Here's the 30 day rainfall outlook - starting now - Sep. 12th:

Model #1:

Model #2:

It looks like in the final week of August the upper high pressure is collapsing fairly quickly as several systems begin to track straight in from the West. Each passing one will likely weaken the "high" even more, so I think we will see things flip fairly quickly here as August comes to a close and we get into September. It may make for an interesting fall harvest season if things turn wet. I do not think September will be exceptionally cool, but it should be much closer to average compared to the blow-torch hot August that we've had so far. 

Side note - September is not traditionally a very wet month for Kansas. Average rainfall drops by about an inch for most of the state.

El Nino is impressive:

Just incredible what's happening along the equator in the Pacific. Notice the area of white, south of Hawaii that stretches for thousands of miles. Right now, the area monitored for El Nino is 1.8°C above average and it continues to warm. What's also of interest is the exceptionally cold water that is west of the dateline, southwest of Hawaii. That will also play a role in developing weather patterns as we go into the winter season. 

Past El Nino influence on fall weather patterns generally trend toward wetter setups overall. Most recently, 2015-16 was a strong El Nino episode and much of the season & into winter was wet. See the examples below, starting with October, followed by November and December. You will see that October was drier for central and eastern Kansas.

October 2015:

November 2015:

December 2015:

Thanks for reading!