Amid the heatwave, there's this...

It sure seems like all of the 100s that Kansas might have missed out on last summer are showing up this month. Much of the state is already at their average number of 100 days, and we're still looking at another heat wave in week 3 of the month (Aug. 16-22). However, this looks like it will be the last big stand of the "heat dome", so let's get to some better news.

When I wrote up the August outlook, I said September looked encouraging for rainfall, and that still appears to be the case. With the increasing El Niño, which I'll show in just a second, we are likely to start seeing the southern branch of the jet stream getting more and more active as we get into fall. I would assume this will come too late for many fall crops.

Latest drought map (August 13th):

Much of the state had tremendous rainfall in June, making it a top 10 wettest for several parts of the state. July started drying out and as expected, August has gone hot and dry statewide. But as most of us know, one extreme can follow another, and while I'm not saying we'll have flooding in 30 days, a change is coming.

Here's the 30 day rainfall outlook - starting now - Sep. 12th:

Model #1:

Model #2:

It looks like in the final week of August the upper high pressure is collapsing fairly quickly as several systems begin to track straight in from the West. Each passing one will likely weaken the "high" even more, so I think we will see things flip fairly quickly here as August comes to a close and we get into September. It may make for an interesting fall harvest season if things turn wet. I do not think September will be exceptionally cool, but it should be much closer to average compared to the blow-torch hot August that we've had so far. 

Side note - September is not traditionally a very wet month for Kansas. Average rainfall drops by about an inch for most of the state.

El Nino is impressive:

Just incredible what's happening along the equator in the Pacific. Notice the area of white, south of Hawaii that stretches for thousands of miles. Right now, the area monitored for El Nino is 1.8°C above average and it continues to warm. What's also of interest is the exceptionally cold water that is west of the dateline, southwest of Hawaii. That will also play a role in developing weather patterns as we go into the winter season. 

Past El Nino influence on fall weather patterns generally trend toward wetter setups overall. Most recently, 2015-16 was a strong El Nino episode and much of the season & into winter was wet. See the examples below, starting with October, followed by November and December. You will see that October was drier for central and eastern Kansas.

October 2015:

November 2015:

December 2015:

Thanks for reading!

August heat remains - but interesting signals ahead

Just one month remaining in 2026 meteorological summer and although we've had some hot days, we are not setting any all-time records, and this is not on pace for a hottest summer by any means. Some of those summer records belong to 2011/2012, 1989, and the 1930s. A quick glance at the map below shows how July wrapped up - with much of the state at least "slightly above" on temperatures (largely driven by the late month temperature surge) 

July rainfall wasn't much to get excited about, with almost all areas (with the exception of northeast Kansas) well below average. See how central and south central Kansas ended the month about 3-3.50" below. It would've been nice to have some of that June rain carryover. Driest July for Wichita and Dodge City since 2011 & 2012, respectively. 

August preview:

Right here at the outset, I will say August isn't promising for any cool weather. If it's going to show up (the cool weather that is), it's not going to happen until we hit late August. Persistent high pressure remaining very close to Kansas will likely dominate the first half of the month and perhaps longer. Up until recently, we've been able to avoid the upper level high for much of the summer, but it may be camped out nearby for the next several weeks.

This also suggests to me that August is a dry month - below average rainfall is likely for the 31 day period. What rain we do get in August could be weighted toward the end of the month, but even that may turn out to be lackluster. 

However - While most of you will fall in the camp of "believe it when I see it", the strong El Niño may send us into a much wetter setup soon. Most of the data suggests rain arriving in early September, and the months to follow will be turning wetter than average. That may complicate fall harvest and fall planting in a big way. It shouldn't be a total surprise because fall and winter tend to go wetter when we have an El Niño influence, and this one coming on is a strong one (maybe even stronger than the 97-98 one that set records). We will be highlighting some of these cases in future posts, but El Niño impacts are usually an energized southern branch of the jet stream, which would foster better rains over the southern half of the US. That is now showing in many of our maps. The image below is September projected rain, followed by September, October, and November (grouped into one map).

September rain:

Sep/Oct/Nov rain:

More to come on El Nino!

Signs of some rain; cooler weather

Reaching the halfway point of July and we are still on track to avoid any major heatwaves in the coming weeks. That is fitting when moving into a strong El Niño - and some of the other background indicators have suggested Kansas will remain out of the intense summer heat dome. I still expect we'll have at least a few 100° days - we all know August can be hot - but spending an extended period right under the big summer "high" doesn't look likely.

Take a look at what is shaping up for the 3rd week of July:

Cooler temperatures (compared to average - mainly 80°s) should be expected from the Rockies eastward. The upper-level winds (jet stream) should be coming out of the northwest, which will help drive the changes. The main heat dome is not going to be that strong, but it will be camped out near the 4 Corners region, which will keep the monsoon influence going in the desert, and some active weather will trickle off the Rockies. 

This is somewhat reminiscent of what happened in late June and early July when parts of the state were influenced by nightly storms. Most models are suggesting some .3-.75" amounts could become reality, which isn't anything spectacular, but you have to welcome it in the hottest part of summer.

Last week of July:

If we look at the last week of July into early August, be prepared for your typical July heat with highs remaining in the 90s, but there's no support for a long stretch of 100s. The main "heat dome" should reside out across Arizona and New Mexico, but it once again doesn't look particularly strong.

There has been some question about rainfall moving into August and nearly everything I've looked at is showing drier than average conditions will likely persist for much of the state. That doesn't mean we won't get any rain, but the episodes may be few and far between and amounts won't be anything blockbuster. Here's one of the maps, showing roughly .5-1" below for Kansas.

The latest El Nino indicator is showing water temperatures south of Hawaii at +1.3°C above average and still increasing. It will continue to be a big topic for fall and the upcoming winter, so we'll be discussing it more in the weeks ahead.