Winter fades very fast - some chilly days still to come

I thought mid-late February would have another shot of some Arctic air, but that expectation has faded given the breakdown of the Polar Vortex and general trend toward a positive Arctic Oscillation (the two go hand-in-hand). Recall that the Polar Vortex, when it's strong, can send an overwhelming amount of cold air south across areas east of the Rockies. It happened in late January, but since then it has weakened and shifted back northeast.

I know we have some warm winters from time to time, but this one is probably one of the strangest in recent memory. Since December 1st (or the start of meteorological winter), we've had almost 10 days where some place in Kansas has recorded a record high, and more to be added soon. December had 4 days with record highs, January with 2, and we'll soon be adding to February's count.

Third week of February (16-22):

A dominant pattern with low pressure across the West will favor warmer weather throughout the central Plains on to the east. Take note of the VERY cold air across western Canada. That was originally thought to move south and get into the central Plains, but I'm not expecting that to happen now. We may get some of that chillier air, but not the core of it. 

February 23-March 2:

Definitely cooler to end February and start March, but it's very unlikely to be bitterly cold. Expect most highs to be in the 40s and 50s. And precipitation throughout this period will likely be somewhat scarce, considering upper level winds will be back to the west/northwest (traditionally a drier setup)

March as a whole: More than likely it will be near or slightly warmer than average

Precipitation: near to slightly wetter across the central Plains. 

• Western Kansas average rainfall in March is about 1-1.50"
• Central/South Central Kansas average March rain is 2-2.50"

The overall setup may be something that resembles what happened in December where the northern Plains and upper Midwest had more active weather. That's fitting of a weak La Nina influence, but as we mentioned last time, La Nina has all but faded at this time. 

Milder for now, but cold isn't finished yet

There's light at the end of the winter tunnel and this is our last month of meteorological winter. Keep that in mind as I tell you that more cold (and likely some Arctic air) is headed this way in February. We really can't complain too much because December and the first half of January were very warm. 

The Arctic oscillation remains negative for now (that argues for cold) and another index (the MJO - which tracks rising and sinking motions out across the Indian Ocean and Pacific) hints at phases that would keep the middle of the country colder than average. All of this to say, there's more winter to go yet.

Snow has been extremely hard to come by for the ski resorts in the Rockies. As we start this new month, the snow cover favors the Great Lakes and the East and is significantly higher than it was one year ago for early February.

Here are the maps - February overall:

Mid-February will likely go much colder as we once again anticipate systems dropping out of the Pacific Northwest and western Canada to help drag the colder air across the Rockies, northern/central Plains and areas to the east. 

There is a reasonable chance that a storm system will form near the central US just after Valentine's Day. Stick with us as we work out the details on rain and snow, but that's the next system that might have more of a direct influence on chances for moisture. 

A reprieve from the cold will come too - perhaps into our last full week of February. As has been the case so much lately, that Arctic air will retreat eastward in time, so the entire second half of February won't be below average.

Odds seems to favor some moisture in February. It will more than likely include more snow, but some rain is possible for the region too. Near or wetter than average conditions are showing up, most of which may come in the middle of the month.

The average February stats look like this for Kansas:

Thanks for reading!

A price to be paid for the warm

Winter storm update: All snow for Friday and Saturday, and when melted down, here's the liquid content of it all. It's not going to be the classic 10 inches of snow to 1" of rain - the air is much colder for this go around. 

Snowfall numbers coming soon, but here's what we have so far:

And be glad we aren't getting what the southern Plains will get - MAJOR ice!

The cold is finally showing up - now past the halfway mark in meteorological winter. Recent forecasts seem to be getting met with some serious unhappiness, but after so much warm in December and the first half of January, this probably isn't a surprise for some of you. 

Here's how January temperatures have looked so far: 

January: Much of the country is warmer than average, with some of the warmest from Kansas to the northern Rockies. 

Some of the driest areas of Kansas continue to be in the northwest and across southern Kansas, as this winter hasn't been very productive in precipitation. (this is since Dec. 1st)

And snowfall for the winter season looks like this - well below average for most of the region:

Coldest air of the season coming soon - it won't be the last either.

Kansas has primarily been on the western edge of most of the Arctic air this winter, but that probably won't be the case moving through late January. The West coast is back in the drier pattern with a big-time high-pressure ridge favored there. East of that ridge is where the bitter cold will be cutting loose.

Very late in January, expect it to be warming back up though as low pressure pulls away to the east and high pressure starts to expand across the West. This will likely result in dry weather to end January and highs that will trend back above average.

Another blast of Arctic air could be coming in February:

If high pressure pulls back toward Alaska (their weather gets warmer and calmer), that will allow for the bitter cold to surge back south across the middle of the US. This kind of setup would likely be mostly dry, but we'll see how it all comes together. 

Have a great day and thanks for reading!