Milder for now, but cold isn't finished yet

There's light at the end of the winter tunnel and this is our last month of meteorological winter. Keep that in mind as I tell you that more cold (and likely some Arctic air) is headed this way in February. We really can't complain too much because December and the first half of January were very warm. 

The Arctic oscillation remains negative for now (that argues for cold) and another index (the MJO - which tracks rising and sinking motions out across the Indian Ocean and Pacific) hints at phases that would keep the middle of the country colder than average. All of this to say, there's more winter to go yet.

Snow has been extremely hard to come by for the ski resorts in the Rockies. As we start this new month, the snow cover favors the Great Lakes and the East and is significantly higher than it was one year ago for early February.

Here are the maps - February overall:

Mid-February will likely go much colder as we once again anticipate systems dropping out of the Pacific Northwest and western Canada to help drag the colder air across the Rockies, northern/central Plains and areas to the east. 

There is a reasonable chance that a storm system will form near the central US just after Valentine's Day. Stick with us as we work out the details on rain and snow, but that's the next system that might have more of a direct influence on chances for moisture. 

A reprieve from the cold will come too - perhaps into our last full week of February. As has been the case so much lately, that Arctic air will retreat eastward in time, so the entire second half of February won't be below average.

Odds seems to favor some moisture in February. It will more than likely include more snow, but some rain is possible for the region too. Near or wetter than average conditions are showing up, most of which may come in the middle of the month.

The average February stats look like this for Kansas:

Thanks for reading!

A price to be paid for the warm

Winter storm update: All snow for Friday and Saturday, and when melted down, here's the liquid content of it all. It's not going to be the classic 10 inches of snow to 1" of rain - the air is much colder for this go around. 

Snowfall numbers coming soon, but here's what we have so far:

And be glad we aren't getting what the southern Plains will get - MAJOR ice!

The cold is finally showing up - now past the halfway mark in meteorological winter. Recent forecasts seem to be getting met with some serious unhappiness, but after so much warm in December and the first half of January, this probably isn't a surprise for some of you. 

Here's how January temperatures have looked so far: 

January: Much of the country is warmer than average, with some of the warmest from Kansas to the northern Rockies. 

Some of the driest areas of Kansas continue to be in the northwest and across southern Kansas, as this winter hasn't been very productive in precipitation. (this is since Dec. 1st)

And snowfall for the winter season looks like this - well below average for most of the region:

Coldest air of the season coming soon - it won't be the last either.

Kansas has primarily been on the western edge of most of the Arctic air this winter, but that probably won't be the case moving through late January. The West coast is back in the drier pattern with a big-time high-pressure ridge favored there. East of that ridge is where the bitter cold will be cutting loose.

Very late in January, expect it to be warming back up though as low pressure pulls away to the east and high pressure starts to expand across the West. This will likely result in dry weather to end January and highs that will trend back above average.

Another blast of Arctic air could be coming in February:

If high pressure pulls back toward Alaska (their weather gets warmer and calmer), that will allow for the bitter cold to surge back south across the middle of the US. This kind of setup would likely be mostly dry, but we'll see how it all comes together. 

Have a great day and thanks for reading!

January cold is gearing up

It should come as no surprise that much of the state is still waiting on its first 1" of snow for the winter, but that's not close to any kind of record. In fact, last winter our first significant snow for most of Kansas came on January 5th. It was after some freezing rain and ice buildup in central and eastern Kansas. Records for the "latest first 1" of snow" actually go clear into March, so we have a long way to go before that is threatened. 

December is wrapping up as a top 10 warmest for western Kansas (where the average temperature was 5-10° above the normal), but it wasn't quite as warm farther east. The cold weather that hit early in the month offset so much of the record heat during Christmas week.

Colder & longer periods of cold are coming:

It's interesting because when Alaska is bitter cold, the western half of the United States is milder. However, when high pressure (ridging) starts to develop near or over Alaska, we usually start to see the bitter cold diving farther south. 

Here are a couple of examples: January 4th you can see the low pressure favored areas (blue colors) along the West coast and right up into Alaska. Kansas and much of the Plains are warm at that time with high pressure over the region. 

Note - January 14th. There's a reversal. When high pressure "ridging" returns to Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest, much colder air should drop south right into the areas east of the Rockies. The blue colors over the Great Lakes and just east of Kansas represent a cold pattern that's more than likely taking hold BEFORE we get to mid-January. This will likely be Arctic air.

December didn't have much to pick from with moisture - some light snow at the very beginning of the month, and then a dusting on December 28/29. The last good soaking of rainfall was back in late November - just prior to Thanksgiving. 

January Temperature:

Here's the map - looks like a near "normal" month ahead where the cold snaps will be balanced out by warmer stretches of weather. It's entirely possible all the mild weather to kick off January will be wiped out by much colder air mid-late month. It will turn much colder before we know it. 

Precip:

There will be a couple of storm systems coming from the West as we approach mid-January. Look for the month to have more precipitation than December, but that may not be saying much considering how dry it was in the previous 30 days. We will get some snow, but I don't think it will be anything significant. 

Happy New Year!