Signs of some rain; cooler weather

Reaching the halfway point of July and we are still on track to avoid any major heatwaves in the coming weeks. That is fitting when moving into a strong El Niño - and some of the other background indicators have suggested Kansas will remain out of the intense summer heat dome. I still expect we'll have at least a few 100° days - we all know August can be hot - but spending an extended period right under the big summer "high" doesn't look likely.

Take a look at what is shaping up for the 3rd week of July:

Cooler temperatures (compared to average - mainly 80°s) should be expected from the Rockies eastward. The upper-level winds (jet stream) should be coming out of the northwest, which will help drive the changes. The main heat dome is not going to be that strong, but it will be camped out near the 4 Corners region, which will keep the monsoon influence going in the desert, and some active weather will trickle off the Rockies. 

This is somewhat reminiscent of what happened in late June and early July when parts of the state were influenced by nightly storms. Most models are suggesting some .3-.75" amounts could become reality, which isn't anything spectacular, but you have to welcome it in the hottest part of summer.

Last week of July:

If we look at the last week of July into early August, be prepared for your typical July heat with highs remaining in the 90s, but there's no support for a long stretch of 100s. The main "heat dome" should reside out across Arizona and New Mexico, but it once again doesn't look particularly strong.

There has been some question about rainfall moving into August and nearly everything I've looked at is showing drier than average conditions will likely persist for much of the state. That doesn't mean we won't get any rain, but the episodes may be few and far between and amounts won't be anything blockbuster. Here's one of the maps, showing roughly .5-1" below for Kansas.

The latest El Nino indicator is showing water temperatures south of Hawaii at +1.3°C above average and still increasing. It will continue to be a big topic for fall and the upcoming winter, so we'll be discussing it more in the weeks ahead. 

Could we escape the worst of summer's heat in July?

Welcome to July! And already, 2026 is half over (I'm always amazed at how fast time flies). We just wrapped up a wet June with many locations experiencing a top 20 wettest June on record, but some went even further than that by breaking into top 10. Here's a map showing June rainfall numbers:

Several areas across central and southern Kansas had over 200% of normal moisture. Naturally, the drought has improved drastically compared to 60 days ago. Incoming El Nino is almost always helpful in generating rainfall and this time proves no different. 

July is starting off with record heat in the eastern United States as the infamous "heat dome" sets up across the Tennessee and Kentucky. Of course, the impacts are far reaching with the New England states even gearing up for highs near 100. A few areas may have all-time high temperatures before it's over, and it could be the last of the major heat they'll see in the East for the remainder of this summer. 

July outlook - I don't see this month being extremely hot for Kansas. Average highs remain in the low 90s throughout the month, and I can't imagine we'll have any prolonged periods of 100° weather. The upper level high will be uncomfortably close to Kansas, but latest trends suggest it may never get that strong. At times where it tries to strengthen, it may get weakened by some upper level feature coming over the northern Rockies. 

If that's the case, we should expect near or slightly cooler than average temperatures when the month ends. Here's the temperature map:

Rainfall expectations shouldn't be too disappointing, but we do know that July won't be as wet as June. After all, back-to-back record months with rainfall are quite unusual. Average July rain tends to drop because high pressure is more common this time of year. However, if the high pressure remains weaker, that should allow for some more active weather to arrive off the Rockies. We'll see. Early monsoon may help provide some welcome rainfall off to the southwest of Kansas too - not entirely sure if we'll see any of that getting up into our immediate area. 

Here's a rundown of what average July rainfall looks like for various parts of the state:

• Goodland: 3.08"
• Wichita: 3.98"
• Dodge City: 3.08"
• Garden City: 3.43"
• Salina: 3.92"
• Hutch: 3.33"
• Hays: 3.95"

Water temperatures out in the Pacific continue to warm as the El Nino intensifies. This will likely rank as one of the stronger ones on record before it's over. Note that even warmer water is gathering just off the central/south American coastline. Some of it will continue moving westward. The average water temperature in the El Nino zone (that's monitored) is 1.2° above average. This is going to be a factor through fall and winter, so it's a topic we'll come back to many times.

Thanks for spending a few minutes here - stay cool!

More rain coming - no heat wave yet

We continue to see some good news regarding ongoing drought in Kansas as we approach late June and even start to look out into mid-July. 

First up, the infamous "heat dome" will remain over northern Mexico right up to the end of June and it should be very weak. Given that, we will continue to see repeated rounds of storms off the high plains of Colorado and right down into Kansas. This is classic summertime - mainly overnight and early morning storms. 

This particular setup should yield more rain for the Plains and the Corn Belt, which might be key timing for some of the fall crop production and yields. Take a look at the predicted rain amounts and see that western Kansas might be on the lower end of the amounts but should still receive some rainfall throughout the last week of June.

And as we've talked about before, the more rain, the better the chances are at avoiding a prolonged heat wave. If you're "dry", you tend to "fry". 

 

Going out further into July, it will be our turn for some hotter weather. Signs are pointing to more 90s and drier days, but I don't expect a major heat wave or a long stretch of no rain.

Most models hint at the upper high pressure, or heat dome, moving back to near Amarillo and resulting in some hotter temperatures and less rainfall as we approach mid-July. This could help to crank up the monsoon over the Desert Southwest and across the Rockies. The upper level winds would keep the higher rain potential off to our west. 

I don't think a prolonged heat wave is in our future for July. There are too many other factors suggesting whatever heat we do get into may very well be brief - broken down by a cold front and some rain. Great news for farmers and those who aren't fans of summer heat and humidity.