Remain hopeful looking ahead - ENSO update

It's not exactly unfamiliar territory for anybody in Kansas these days. Spreading drought, missed opportunities on rain, and everything seems to go around us. We are back in that all-to-familiar pattern where we just can't seem to buy a healthy rain. I'm not a wheat expert, but after some recent trips across the state, this year's crop is very short and likely moisture starved, so whatever rain we do get will be too late for that, I'm sure. 

Backing up the concerns for rain - parts of the state have had only 5-10% normal moisture over the past 60 days:

There's reason to be hopeful looking forward. First, let's address the El Nino because the water temperatures have just gone positive in the critical area that is monitored (along the equator and south of Hawaii). The average temperature has just gone to .1°C above average. (Below is the map showing the water temperatures compared to average). You may be noticing the extremely warm water off the California coast, but that's not the area monitored for El Nino (that water is related to something different)

Look where we will be in 60-90 days:

This could easily become a strong El Nino by late summer. Most of the time, when we move into an El Nino, odds increase for Kansas to get better rainfall. It doesn't always happen that way, but you will find more cases of wetter stretches of weather in El Nino as compared to its counterpart, La Nina. And although not shown here, temperatures tend to be near or slightly cooler for the Plains states. There are multiple cases of that happening during these kinds of setups. 

I still have concerns that the next 30 days - through mid/late May, will still wind up drier than average on a large scale. However, more areas of the state SHOULD get rain compared to what has happened so far. I can't make any promises on how much, but the weather patterns we are looking at (at least for early May) should be more helpful. 

7 Day Rainfall - compared to average - through May 3:

7 Day Rainfall - compared to average - through May 10:

7 Day Rainfall - compared to average - through mid May:

Remember, this doesn't guarantee that all areas of the state will be in better shape (compared to the previous few months), but they are signs of a shifting trend as the persistent track of low pressure off the West coast continues. That may end by the middle of May, so let's watch for that. Some of these systems may wobble around for a few days, creating the unsettled weather and leading to cooler temperatures. 

Summer Rains?

If we extend the maps out to summer (and I know some of you won't believe it until you see it), there's an increasing chance we'll have slightly wetter than average weather across the middle of the country. Will this come in June, July, or August? That's a more difficult prediction to make right now, but I'd be leaning toward more rain later in the summer as the El Nino continues to strengthen and influence the overall pattern. 

One more note about the El Nino/La Nina patterns. Take a look at the graph below. 

You'll see how we cycle back and forth between the two phenomena (where the line goes up, it is El Nino and when it dips toward the bottom of the graph, it's La Nina). It's not uncommon to be in cycles where La Nina is favored more frequently (that's where we are now), but there are cycles where El Nino is more common. It's early to say how long the incoming El Nino will last, but it should continue through at least the first part of winter before weakening - according to most models.

April rains still on track and some summer thoughts

It's very easy to be frustrated with the overall lack of moisture for Kansas in recent weeks and months, but we aren't the only ones left out. This lack of rain is something that is fairly widespread across the Plains states, given how the drought map looks here at the start of the month. 

I've said over the past several weeks that early April holds promise of being wetter for much of the area, and I still stand by those predictions. The persistent high pressure that was a problem in March is gone for now, so look for more active weather out of the West between now and mid-April. We may not get the amounts of rain you're hoping for, but at least there's something on the horizon to consider. 

Beyond mid-April, it will likely dry out again, so the second half of the month may not be very helpful for Kansas. Most of the data suggests high pressure may reassert itself into the Plains, which will make generating good rain near impossible. Below is the rainfall projection for late month:

Since March was one of the warmest ones on record, we have been fielding a lot of questions about what this means for the summer months. It's natural to think the summer will be ridiculously hot, but everything I keep looking at suggest the opposite. That would be consistent with rapid onset of El Nino, potentially increasing the potential of rains for the Plains and helping to keep the heat in check.

And if you're interested, this is what we see on the rainfall maps for summer (remember this is a three-month period squeezed into one map). 

New April rainfall maps

In the face of expanding drought across the Plains, we continue to see some encouraging signs going into April. Late March has been controlled by a dominant ridge of high pressure over the Southwest, and that has essentially led to more of what we had all winter (mild weather and several dry spells). Just look at all of the records that will fall on March 21st from California to Wisconsin.

Here's what happens around the 1st of the month:

Low pressure becomes favored over the area west of the Rockies while the high pressure moves to the East coast. As a word of caution - this doesn't always guarantee significant rainfall, but chances will return on a larger scale than anything we've had the past several weeks.

The rainfall outlook in early April looks like this:

This might make the difference between a mediocre wheat crop and one that could do very well, assuming we avoid all early spring freezes. I don't think the entire month will be rainy however, as high pressure may reassert itself back in the Plains by mid-late April.

If that becomes the case, we'll see our rain chances dropping off quickly and risks of severe weather will shift away from the central Plains.

In case you're wondering about temperatures, April should be warmer than average once again. I should remind you that even though we are having a hot start to spring, that doesn't necessarily mean the upcoming summer is going to be hotter than blazes. Some of the latest data continues to show the central Plains with an average or slightly cooler than average summer (months of June, July, and August combined). Some food for thought as we deal with the recent streak of record highs.

Thanks for reading!