November gets more interesting

We are wrapping up another warmer than average month (surprise surprise), with many locations having a top 10 warmest Octobers on record. Here's a map showing October rainfall around the state. Most areas come out wetter than normal, but some drought remains over the central and southern parts of the state:

The El Nino is about to peak soon, but the impacts will be felt for several months to come (likely through spring 2027)

Here's the prediction on El Nino - notice how the line starts coming back down as we move deeper into winter and early spring. 

Lately, we've had some notable systems arrive from the Southwest with tropical connections that lead to significant rainfall. While they have been quite productive in generating some moisture, they haven't been that intense. However, that will start to change as winter gets closer and we will have a much stronger southern branch of the jet stream this winter (that's courtesy of El Nino).

Just look at the difference in 60 days across the Equator (south of Hawaii).

This first image is late August:

60 days later as we end October:

This is what will help to energize the southern branch of the jet stream (called the subtropical jet) as the winter sets in. We'll likely have one system right after another through November and December, so things will get very interesting as we continue. We start November off with some remaining drought conditions in central and southern Kansas, but I'm sure that will be wiped out very soon.

November Temperatures:

Again, we go into another month where things look warmer than average overall. This should put to rest the fears of us going straight into winter. We still have some pleasant fall days coming, but remember average highs drop into the 50s soon, so our "warmer" days are likely highs in the 60s - not 80s like we saw so much of in October. And this is an overall picture of the month, so we know there will be some cool stretches mixed in. Look back into the Southwest part of the US. That clearly resembles where our major storm systems will organize before kicking out across the Plains. 

November Rainfall:

On average, November is NOT a particularly wet month (on average). However, this will be another month with wetter than average conditions. The month of October was slightly wetter than normal for most of the state. Several locations reported in with at least .50" above average on moisture, and November continues the trend of active weather. 

Here are the average rainfall numbers for different areas of Kansas for November:

1. Salina: 1.22", Wichita: 1.36", Hutchinson: 1.12", Hays: .90", Goodland: .54",                Dodge City: .80", Garden City: .42"

Again, I would expect most of the state to receive better than average moisture when the month is over.

It's reasonable to expect several upper low pressure systems to form off the West coast and get into the desert Southwest. Another area that could be quite active in November will be the deep South. The Northern Plains and Rockies could be quite warm in November and also drier. That's pretty typical of El Nino. 

Our winter outlook is coming right around Thanksgiving. We already have some pretty good ideas on the season ahead, which might be exciting for some of you, but others may be moaning and groaning. Stay tuned...

Get ready for more active days - preview of November

One storm system after another - that might be a common occurrence as we continue deeper into fall and winter. This latest round of active weather is a little earlier than I thought it might be, but I haven't heard too many complaints (unless you're a farmer still trying to plant wheat). At any rate, more low pressure systems are favored across the western US, and I believe this will continue right into November.

Let's take a look at what's developing soon:

Models seem to be in agreement that another system will be approaching the central Plains around the 24th/25th - with it, more rain and thunder (not likely snow).

What follows could be another system for Halloween:

Note the blue in the Southwest - that represents low pressure and if it ejects into the Plains (track is often key), it could easily result in more active weather right at the end of the month. Given the temperatures that are forecast during that time, I would not expect it to be snow either. The northern branch of the jet stream remains north of Kansas at this particular time, so a big shot of cold, Canadian air would be highly unlikely.

If we look at the 7 day rainfall (center on October 29th), you'll see the central and southern US is favored to have more rain. Exact amounts aren't known, but it is something to watch as we approach the timeframe

And over the next 30 days (October 22 - November 22), this map reflects what could be a very energetic southern branch of the jet stream (a result of the El Nino)

Temperatures:

I've had so many tell me they are concerned about a sprint into winter, but I still don't see that happening. There are some cool or chilly spells mixed in, but a long stretch of colder than average weather just doesn't show up in the models just yet.

The month of November doesn't look warm, but it also doesn't look bitterly cold either. Things may just average out for the month, which would mean more days with highs in the 50s and 60s than anything else. 

While it does get a little into the weeds of meteorology, one of the things that we'll come back to again over the next few months is the Arctic Oscillation. When it goes negative, the chances of having more cold air slip south from Canada and the Arctic increases. When it remains positive, there are much better odds of it being "milder". There is a slight drop off (going negative) toward the end of October. That doesn't mean it will instantly turn cold, but it might indicate some chillier weather to start November. Maybe that's when we will have our first hard freeze statewide.

Thanks for reading!

October outlook with El Niño in the headlines

We've heard so much about the El Niño reaching historic magnitudes, and it may still intensify a bit more between now and December. Depending on what you read (and believe), some of the headlines could be a bit alarming. The strength of this El Niño is similar to what we had in 2015/16 but appears to be stronger than the one we had in the late 90s (1997-98). 

Here are the water temperatures compared to average (much of that water south of Hawaii is about 85°F):

If we look back at previous winter seasons (I looked at the period of November - February), what we find is that most of them tend to be average or wetter than average. The numbers listed on the maps represent above or below moisture (compared to the average). See the examples below:

2015/16: 

1997/98:

1982/83: 

This is just some initial research and some food for thought as we get closer. There's still so much to watch and interpret so that we might have a better winter prediction, but it is a very common question this time of year "what's the winter going to be like". In classic El Niño winters, the southern branch of the jet stream is much more productive and active. 

October thoughts:

Temperatures: 

I'd expect the month overall to be near or warmer than average, with cool weather in control for the eastern 1/2 of the country. If the upper-level winds are coming out of the northwest, this temperature setup makes total sense.

The first half of the month looks pretty quiet (DRY). I don't think we are seeing the full impact of El Niño on the pattern yet - that's to come later in the year. And if you are wondering about early frost this year, I'm not convinced that will happen either. I'd expect either an average first fall frost (usually mid-late October) or even later this year. 

Persistent riding (high pressure) may setup across the Rockies for a few weeks, so our upper-level winds may be more west to northwest, which tends to limit rainfall for the Plains. I'm not saying we won't have any rain at all, but it does look drier than average for the first few weeks of the month.

It looks like late October turns wetter - something the models have been indicating now for quite some time. This active and wetter period is likely to continue into November, so that may be the earliest onset of the El Niño impact for the Plains. 

Thanks for reading! Safe to say, things will get much more interesting in the coming months, and drought will likely have a significant setback in the weeks/months to come.