Expanding drought - rain will be scarce

It's not that uncommon for March to be windy and mainly dry, but if you keep missing rains into April, you start to get a little nervous about it what it means going into summer. Lately, there has been some good rainfall in south central and eastern Kansas, but the latest drought map doesn't necessarily reflect that. In the short term, high pressure from Kansas to the West coast will keep the central Plains mostly void of decent moisture.

Beneficial rainfall (and some snow) will favor the northern Plains and areas east of Kansas, but the stubborn ridge will keep the central and southern Plains dry. We'll also see the potential of severe storms drop off.

If we stretch our rainfall forecast out to April 20th, it's a tough map to digest for areas across central and western Kansas where things have been pretty dry. It doesn't mean there won't be any rain, just that conditions will be drier than average. 

For what it's worth, we are quickly watching the La Nina in the Pacific fade away. The water has been slightly colder than average for the past several months (since last summer), but we are currently seeing the water warm up south of Hawaii. That is key to a change that should be coming as we move toward summer. Traditionally, with an onset of El Nino, the Plains can expect patterns that bring more favorable rainfall. It won't happen overnight or within a week, but a shift toward El Nino offers some hopeful signs of rain going forward (even if the spring isn't overly helpful).

This is how the water looked on December 1st:

And now, you'll see less "blue" colors along the Equator. We know the water is gradually warming, but an official declaration of El Nino won't come for several more months yet. 

I'll write something soon and go into more detail on the El Nino coming, but for now, just know that we are soon making the switch. 

Have a great day!

March coming in like a lion

After a fairly benign February, the month of March looks like it will come in like a gentle lion (if there is such a thing). You have to think it could be worse and we have definitely seen worse.

We do know the first 10 days of March look wet! Basically, from the southern Plains to the upper Midwest, a series of large-scale systems out of the West could keep things pretty soggy. I guess not EVERYONE needs rain, according to this email we received from a viewer on February 26th:

I do think the majority of our March moisture (overall) is weighted toward the beginning of the month, with repeated systems arriving from the West or Southwest. We're even looking at some risk of stronger thunderstorms across the southern Plains and into the mid-Mississippi River Valley. I don't think Kansas will have much of a severe weather threat at this stage.

There's reason to be concerned about a heavy, wet snow in March, but I don't think we'll see much of that in Kansas (might be a concern west and north of our immediate area). Below is the March rainfall outlook for the 31 day period - favoring the eastern half of Kansas to be wetter, with western Kansas still getting some rain, but not likely to be wetter than average (which is typically about 1-2" of rain)

The pattern should calm down some by mid-March and into the second half of the month. It wouldn't be a total surprise to see high pressure returning to the west of the Rockies, which would bring about some drier trends in the 3rd week of the month. However, we should keep a watch on late March as more active weather could be returning out of the West. Most models seem to hint at the pattern reloading again after the 23rd. Of course, that late in the month, one might anticipate the threat of severe storms increasing

We've had one heck of a run on warm weather this winter. In fact, this reaches the top 10 warmest winters on record (top 5 for western Kansas), so we probably won't soon forget this one. I think we had about 2-3 weeks of "cold" overall, and I'd be surprised if this month of March is anything out of the ordinary. 

Right now, the data tells us to expect a seasonal month - likely to close to the average. There are still some chilly days ahead, but they'll more than likely be limited in duration.

Winter fades very fast - some chilly days still to come

I thought mid-late February would have another shot of some Arctic air, but that expectation has faded given the breakdown of the Polar Vortex and general trend toward a positive Arctic Oscillation (the two go hand-in-hand). Recall that the Polar Vortex, when it's strong, can send an overwhelming amount of cold air south across areas east of the Rockies. It happened in late January, but since then it has weakened and shifted back northeast.

I know we have some warm winters from time to time, but this one is probably one of the strangest in recent memory. Since December 1st (or the start of meteorological winter), we've had almost 10 days where some place in Kansas has recorded a record high, and more to be added soon. December had 4 days with record highs, January with 2, and we'll soon be adding to February's count.

Third week of February (16-22):

A dominant pattern with low pressure across the West will favor warmer weather throughout the central Plains on to the east. Take note of the VERY cold air across western Canada. That was originally thought to move south and get into the central Plains, but I'm not expecting that to happen now. We may get some of that chillier air, but not the core of it. 

February 23-March 2:

Definitely cooler to end February and start March, but it's very unlikely to be bitterly cold. Expect most highs to be in the 40s and 50s. And precipitation throughout this period will likely be somewhat scarce, considering upper level winds will be back to the west/northwest (traditionally a drier setup)

March as a whole: More than likely it will be near or slightly warmer than average

Precipitation: near to slightly wetter across the central Plains. 

• Western Kansas average rainfall in March is about 1-1.50"
• Central/South Central Kansas average March rain is 2-2.50"

The overall setup may be something that resembles what happened in December where the northern Plains and upper Midwest had more active weather. That's fitting of a weak La Nina influence, but as we mentioned last time, La Nina has all but faded at this time.