August heat remains - but interesting signals ahead

Just one month remaining in 2026 meteorological summer and although we've had some hot days, we are not setting any all-time records, and this is not on pace for a hottest summer by any means. Some of those summer records belong to 2011/2012, 1989, and the 1930s. A quick glance at the map below shows how July wrapped up - with much of the state at least "slightly above" on temperatures (largely driven by the late month temperature surge) 

July rainfall wasn't much to get excited about, with almost all areas (with the exception of northeast Kansas) well below average. See how central and south central Kansas ended the month about 3-3.50" below. It would've been nice to have some of that June rain carryover. Driest July for Wichita and Dodge City since 2011 & 2012, respectively. 

August preview:

Right here at the outset, I will say August isn't promising for any cool weather. If it's going to show up (the cool weather that is), it's not going to happen until we hit late August. Persistent high pressure remaining very close to Kansas will likely dominate the first half of the month and perhaps longer. Up until recently, we've been able to avoid the upper level high for much of the summer, but it may be camped out nearby for the next several weeks.

This also suggests to me that August is a dry month - below average rainfall is likely for the 31 day period. What rain we do get in August could be weighted toward the end of the month, but even that may turn out to be lackluster. 

However - While most of you will fall in the camp of "believe it when I see it", the strong El Niño may send us into a much wetter setup soon. Most of the data suggests rain arriving in early September, and the months to follow will be turning wetter than average. That may complicate fall harvest and fall planting in a big way. It shouldn't be a total surprise because fall and winter tend to go wetter when we have an El Niño influence, and this one coming on is a strong one (maybe even stronger than the 97-98 one that set records). We will be highlighting some of these cases in future posts, but El Niño impacts are usually an energized southern branch of the jet stream, which would foster better rains over the southern half of the US. That is now showing in many of our maps. The image below is September projected rain, followed by September, October, and November (grouped into one map).

September rain:

Sep/Oct/Nov rain:

More to come on El Nino!

Signs of some rain; cooler weather

Reaching the halfway point of July and we are still on track to avoid any major heatwaves in the coming weeks. That is fitting when moving into a strong El Niño - and some of the other background indicators have suggested Kansas will remain out of the intense summer heat dome. I still expect we'll have at least a few 100° days - we all know August can be hot - but spending an extended period right under the big summer "high" doesn't look likely.

Take a look at what is shaping up for the 3rd week of July:

Cooler temperatures (compared to average - mainly 80°s) should be expected from the Rockies eastward. The upper-level winds (jet stream) should be coming out of the northwest, which will help drive the changes. The main heat dome is not going to be that strong, but it will be camped out near the 4 Corners region, which will keep the monsoon influence going in the desert, and some active weather will trickle off the Rockies. 

This is somewhat reminiscent of what happened in late June and early July when parts of the state were influenced by nightly storms. Most models are suggesting some .3-.75" amounts could become reality, which isn't anything spectacular, but you have to welcome it in the hottest part of summer.

Last week of July:

If we look at the last week of July into early August, be prepared for your typical July heat with highs remaining in the 90s, but there's no support for a long stretch of 100s. The main "heat dome" should reside out across Arizona and New Mexico, but it once again doesn't look particularly strong.

There has been some question about rainfall moving into August and nearly everything I've looked at is showing drier than average conditions will likely persist for much of the state. That doesn't mean we won't get any rain, but the episodes may be few and far between and amounts won't be anything blockbuster. Here's one of the maps, showing roughly .5-1" below for Kansas.

The latest El Nino indicator is showing water temperatures south of Hawaii at +1.3°C above average and still increasing. It will continue to be a big topic for fall and the upcoming winter, so we'll be discussing it more in the weeks ahead. 

Could we escape the worst of summer's heat in July?

Welcome to July! And already, 2026 is half over (I'm always amazed at how fast time flies). We just wrapped up a wet June with many locations experiencing a top 20 wettest June on record, but some went even further than that by breaking into top 10. Here's a map showing June rainfall numbers:

Several areas across central and southern Kansas had over 200% of normal moisture. Naturally, the drought has improved drastically compared to 60 days ago. Incoming El Nino is almost always helpful in generating rainfall and this time proves no different. 

July is starting off with record heat in the eastern United States as the infamous "heat dome" sets up across the Tennessee and Kentucky. Of course, the impacts are far reaching with the New England states even gearing up for highs near 100. A few areas may have all-time high temperatures before it's over, and it could be the last of the major heat they'll see in the East for the remainder of this summer. 

July outlook - I don't see this month being extremely hot for Kansas. Average highs remain in the low 90s throughout the month, and I can't imagine we'll have any prolonged periods of 100° weather. The upper level high will be uncomfortably close to Kansas, but latest trends suggest it may never get that strong. At times where it tries to strengthen, it may get weakened by some upper level feature coming over the northern Rockies. 

If that's the case, we should expect near or slightly cooler than average temperatures when the month ends. Here's the temperature map:

Rainfall expectations shouldn't be too disappointing, but we do know that July won't be as wet as June. After all, back-to-back record months with rainfall are quite unusual. Average July rain tends to drop because high pressure is more common this time of year. However, if the high pressure remains weaker, that should allow for some more active weather to arrive off the Rockies. We'll see. Early monsoon may help provide some welcome rainfall off to the southwest of Kansas too - not entirely sure if we'll see any of that getting up into our immediate area. 

Here's a rundown of what average July rainfall looks like for various parts of the state:

• Goodland: 3.08"
• Wichita: 3.98"
• Dodge City: 3.08"
• Garden City: 3.43"
• Salina: 3.92"
• Hutch: 3.33"
• Hays: 3.95"

Water temperatures out in the Pacific continue to warm as the El Nino intensifies. This will likely rank as one of the stronger ones on record before it's over. Note that even warmer water is gathering just off the central/south American coastline. Some of it will continue moving westward. The average water temperature in the El Nino zone (that's monitored) is 1.2° above average. This is going to be a factor through fall and winter, so it's a topic we'll come back to many times.

Thanks for spending a few minutes here - stay cool!