April rains still on track and some summer thoughts

It's very easy to be frustrated with the overall lack of moisture for Kansas in recent weeks and months, but we aren't the only ones left out. This lack of rain is something that is fairly widespread across the Plains states, given how the drought map looks here at the start of the month. 

I've said over the past several weeks that early April holds promise of being wetter for much of the area, and I still stand by those predictions. The persistent high pressure that was a problem in March is gone for now, so look for more active weather out of the West between now and mid-April. We may not get the amounts of rain you're hoping for, but at least there's something on the horizon to consider. 

Beyond mid-April, it will likely dry out again, so the second half of the month may not be very helpful for Kansas. Most of the data suggests high pressure may reassert itself into the Plains, which will make generating good rain near impossible. Below is the rainfall projection for late month:

Since March was one of the warmest ones on record, we have been fielding a lot of questions about what this means for the summer months. It's natural to think the summer will be ridiculously hot, but everything I keep looking at suggest the opposite. That would be consistent with rapid onset of El Nino, potentially increasing the potential of rains for the Plains and helping to keep the heat in check.

And if you're interested, this is what we see on the rainfall maps for summer (remember this is a three-month period squeezed into one map). 

New April rainfall maps

In the face of expanding drought across the Plains, we continue to see some encouraging signs going into April. Late March has been controlled by a dominant ridge of high pressure over the Southwest, and that has essentially led to more of what we had all winter (mild weather and several dry spells). Just look at all of the records that will fall on March 21st from California to Wisconsin.

Here's what happens around the 1st of the month:

Low pressure becomes favored over the area west of the Rockies while the high pressure moves to the East coast. As a word of caution - this doesn't always guarantee significant rainfall, but chances will return on a larger scale than anything we've had the past several weeks.

The rainfall outlook in early April looks like this:

This might make the difference between a mediocre wheat crop and one that could do very well, assuming we avoid all early spring freezes. I don't think the entire month will be rainy however, as high pressure may reassert itself back in the Plains by mid-late April.

If that becomes the case, we'll see our rain chances dropping off quickly and risks of severe weather will shift away from the central Plains.

In case you're wondering about temperatures, April should be warmer than average once again. I should remind you that even though we are having a hot start to spring, that doesn't necessarily mean the upcoming summer is going to be hotter than blazes. Some of the latest data continues to show the central Plains with an average or slightly cooler than average summer (months of June, July, and August combined). Some food for thought as we deal with the recent streak of record highs.

Thanks for reading!

Expanding drought - rain will be scarce

It's not that uncommon for March to be windy and mainly dry, but if you keep missing rains into April, you start to get a little nervous about it what it means going into summer. Lately, there has been some good rainfall in south central and eastern Kansas, but the latest drought map doesn't necessarily reflect that. In the short term, high pressure from Kansas to the West coast will keep the central Plains mostly void of decent moisture.

Beneficial rainfall (and some snow) will favor the northern Plains and areas east of Kansas, but the stubborn ridge will keep the central and southern Plains dry. We'll also see the potential of severe storms drop off.

If we stretch our rainfall forecast out to April 20th, it's a tough map to digest for areas across central and western Kansas where things have been pretty dry. It doesn't mean there won't be any rain, just that conditions will be drier than average. 

For what it's worth, we are quickly watching the La Nina in the Pacific fade away. The water has been slightly colder than average for the past several months (since last summer), but we are currently seeing the water warm up south of Hawaii. That is key to a change that should be coming as we move toward summer. Traditionally, with an onset of El Nino, the Plains can expect patterns that bring more favorable rainfall. It won't happen overnight or within a week, but a shift toward El Nino offers some hopeful signs of rain going forward (even if the spring isn't overly helpful).

This is how the water looked on December 1st:

And now, you'll see less "blue" colors along the Equator. We know the water is gradually warming, but an official declaration of El Nino won't come for several more months yet. 

I'll write something soon and go into more detail on the El Nino coming, but for now, just know that we are soon making the switch. 

Have a great day!