Record low tornadoes

As 2012 comes to a close, this will likely go down as a year with some of the fewest tornadoes on record. This can closely be tied to the drought that has been ongoing for a few years in Kansas and a stubborn high pressure system that was difficult to move for most of the summer.

It can be hard to pin down an exact number of tornadoes, but as a rough estimate, there have been just over 800 tornadoes through the end of September. Official tornado numbers for October, November, and December have not been released yet, but even when those numbers come out, we will likely still have a low number of tornadoes. Last year, there were 1700 tornadoes and a significant death toll too, just over 500 fatalities around the nation. The Joplin tornado alone had a significant loss of life, with over 150 people killed by the EF-5 tornado.

In Kansas, we average about 60-70 tornadoes a year, and across the nation, the average is closer to 1200. One important contribution to thunderstorms and thus tornadoes, is moisture. In a year that has had very little subsoil moisture and little rainfall, it is not a huge surprise the number is down significantly.

Mobile, AL tornado from Christmas Day

The outbreak of severe weather on Christmas Day in the southeast US will go down in history as the largest on record. It's not unheard of to have tornadoes in December, but because the air over much of the US is colder, they are not as frequent as in the spring and summer months.

Winter Forecast 2012-2013

If you are interested in what the winter may have in store for Kansas, you've come to the right place. After weeks of studying the weather pattern and gathering as much information as possible, I've come up with a forecast that will make some happy and others disappointed.

Last year was almost a year without winter as much of Kansas had very little snowfall. Wichita would normally get 15 inches of snow in a winter season, while western Kansas would expect amounts much higher. Goodland, for example, averages close to 40 inches in a winter season.

Two of the factors that were considered in the forecast is El Nino/La Nina and the Arctic Oscillation. The last two winters have been influenced by La Nina, which is unusually cool water along the equator in the Pacific. La Nina has contributed to the drought over the last few years too, but it has finally diminished. El Nino is the opposite of La Nina, when the water temperatures are warmer than normal along the equator. We had anticipated El Nino coming back for the winter season, but it has not developed yet, so this will be a neutral winter (no El Nino and no La Nina)

The other factor I looked at closely is the Arctic Oscillation. It is an index that shows when cold air will dislodge from Arctic region and move south. When the number is negative, it is more likely cold air will move south. Positive numbers represent a pattern that will favor the colder air to stay farther north. The winter of 2010-2011 was a snowy and cold winter, when the Arctic Oscillation numbers were dropping to -4 or -5. Last winter, the numbers were as high as 4 and 5, so it turned out to be a very mild winter. This year, I expect we will have several fluctuations, but in this map here, notice has the red lines are dipping back below 0, which will indicate colder weather for the last week of November and into December. Between Nov. 1 and Nov. 16, the numbers are positive, which correlates nicely with our unseasonably warm weather we've had so far in November.

I expect the dominant pattern this winter will be northwest flow in the upper atmosphere, which will favor cool and dry weather for the central US. With this setup, we'll have a series of cold fronts coming through, but moisture will be lacking and therefore, not much snow when the pattern sets up like the one you see below.

There will be cases of the pattern buckling to the southwest, and that's when the weather should be more exciting around the central US. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is more likely to return to Kansas when a storm develops in the southwest. Our chances for rain and snow will dramatically increase when we see this type of setup, but I call it a secondary pattern because I don't think it will happen that often this winter. We'll probably see it at least 3 times, and that's when we can hope for some drought relief.

So putting this altogether, here's what I've come up with. If I had to make a prediction on snowfall for Wichita, I'd say between 5-10 inches for the season, which is below normal, but more than last winter. Expect warm stretches this winter too, that could be 2 weeks in length. Highs in that time could be in the 60s. But there will be, when the Arctic Oscillation goes negative, cold weather showing up in Kansas, with highs in the 30s. Unfortunately, the drought will persist into spring of 2013. The drought has been so bad and intense that it will take a long time for us to climb out of this dry situation we are in, so maybe spring rains will help, but winter moisture just won't be enough.

You can also view our story on KWCH: http://www.kwch.com/news-ckt-winter-track-what-to-expect-this-winter-20121120,0,2147850.story

We will all know the answer by March or April of 2013, right? All of us can agree... bring on the moisture!!

Pressure & the Northeast Storm

We reference it in every weathercast we do, but barometric pressure is sometimes a hard thing to understand. The pressure reading really refers to the weight of the atmosphere above us, and we measure it with a barometer to see if it's going up or down. When a storm is approaching, the pressure goes down (hence, "low" pressure). Just because the pressure goes down, it doesn't necessarily mean rain or snow will soon follow, but it does give you an idea that something could be changing soon. Higher pressure is generally associated with calm weather because the air is sinking and exerting more force down toward the ground.

Watching the fluctuation in pressure with Sandy has been interesting, and once it comes on shore, it will have one of the lowest pressure readings and cause significant flooding and storm surge. Consider for a moment that most people sensitive to changes in the weather will notice the pressure when it drops to around 29.70". Sandy, even as a category 1 hurricane, has had pressure readings down around 28.00", but because it is merging with another system over the US, the pressure will likely drop to around 27.90 before it begins coming back up (or the storm starts weakening)

It's a big deal because so many people will be hit by the storm and power outages will be widespread. It could be several days before things get back to normal, even after the storm is long gone.

Snow returns to Colorado

A sign that times are changing across the United States as snow is now covering the mountains over Telluride in Colorado. It's estimated that the snow is anywhere from 5-8 inches deep in most areas toward the top of the mountains, and although they may not get much snow in the next 4-7 days, a pattern change is about to take place. The strong winds in the upper atmosphere will be diving south again toward the end of the first week of October, so colder air will be coming back south at that time too. One of our computer models shows the return of colder air by Thursday/Friday October 4/5. The timing could change over the next seveal days, but things will start getting interesting by the first weekend in October.

Much of Kansas is still dealing with drought, and if this pattern change holds up, we should have a decent chance to get more moisture in the central US. Stay tuned for sure.

Another Millie & Changes

The fair just finished up and so many of you came by to pet Millie and asked questions about her. I think the 3 most asked questions include:
1. How old is Millie
2. What breed of dog is she
3. How did Millie become so popular


Hopefully you had a chance to pick up an pawtograph of her. She is tired after all of the attention, but assuming no big changes take place between now and the next fair, I'm sure she'll be back. I know there are other dogs out there that go by "Millie", but was surprised to see that Barbra and George H. W. Bush had a Millie when they lived in the White House. It was an English springer spaniel that was named after one of their long time friends. Millie lived to be 12 years old and died after developing pneumonia. President Bush even referenced his dog in one of his many speeches during his reelection campaign. According to a web search, a dog park in Houston, Texas is named after Millie.

Now on to the weather. This is my favorite time of the year as we are studying the changes taking place in the atmosphere and watching the transition from a very hot summer into the colder months. Many people came by the KWCH booth asking what kind of winter we are expecting. The details of the winter are unclear at this point, but we can find some guidance in studying the influence of El Nino on the pattern this winter. I would expect this will probably lead to a wetter winter, but will it be white or just wet? If you look at the forecast map from one of our computer models, you can already see some of the colder air surging south out of Canada (Sunday, Sep. 23 at 7 p.m.) This isn't that uncommon as we head deeper into September, and cold fronts that move through over the next 30 days will gradually get stronger. It is amazing to me how we go from 100s one day to 70s & 80s almost in a matter of a few days. It's like Mother Nature just flips a switch and changes begin. One thing is fairly certain. Our weather pattern through the end of the month is not likely to yield much rainfall for this area. This cool, dry Canadian air doesn't normally bring much precipitation to our area, so the drought will continue even longer and we probably won't have a chance to break it until spring of 2013.

What would it take?

We hear about the drought almost every day and even if your livelihood isn't directly affected by the lack of rain, we will somehow pay the price through higher food costs, water bills, etc.

How much rain would it take to end the drought? The numbers are incredible, but consider for a moment, we've been dealing with some classification of drought in our area since October of 2010. If you calculate the rainfall deficit from 2011 and so far in 2012, you find some very big numbers. Salina would need almost 20 inches of rain to completely wipe out the drought, Dodge City needs almost 15 inches of moisture, with Wichita needing just over 10 inches of rain. The only way to get this kind of rainfall is with some kind of tropical system, or a stalled storm system that hangs around for several consecutive days. You won't likely see that any time soon, so the only thing we can hope for is a continuation of smaller rains along the way. I expect the drought will ease through the fall, but there will be some kind of drought classification for Kansas into the spring months. Maybe then, with an El Nino influence on the weather pattern, we will be in a better situation than we are now.

Drought -- the story continues

It has been a major topic of discussion recently and for good reason. Much of the country is experiencing drought, and conditions are deteriorating fast with such a lack of moisture. I think the conditions are magnified this year in Kansas because we had so much hot and dry weather in 2011 that having another unusually dry summer is just discouraging. I'm posting a drought comparison from last year at the end of July to this year. It is striking to see how much of the United States is covered in orange and red, indicating severe to extreme drought conditions. It is very common this time of year to see thunderstorms develop on the higher terrain of Colorado and Nebraska, and then roll southeast through Kansas. We just haven't had that at all this summer.

I know we haven't seen the last of the 100 degree temperatures, but I definitely think the lengthy stretches (10-12 days in a row) are coming to a close. I don't think August is going to bring record rains, but I think there is some reason to hope we'll get more moisture in August than what we had in July. We are seeing some signs of a change already, but August will have some hot days to be sure. What we hope will be even better news is that if the El Nino phenomenon sets up for the winter months, that should lead to some possible wetter days into the winter months. I'm not making a prediction for winter yet, but if El Nino does come back, we should end up with better chances for moisture. Stay tuned.

Heat & Colorado Fires

Weather pattern heading toward the weekend

The hot weather recently is serving as an unnecessary reminder of the 2011 scorching summer that we dealt with here in Kansas. The weather pattern here in Kansas isn't that unusual for the end of June or early July. As a meteorologist, when we see this type of pattern where high pressure locks in over the central US, we know it's going to be hot. And because the air sinks under high pressure, you essentially eliminate the chance for rainfall. This type of pattern is normally very stubborn and it's going to take a healthy storm system to knock it down and allow rain and storms to head back toward Kansas. Even if we knock the big "H" down, it doesn't necessarily mean a dramatic cool down is going to follow. It is unlikely that we will have the number of 100 degree days we had in 2011, but if trends continue, we're still going to have a lot of them. In the absence of La Nina (unusual cool water near the equator in the Pacific), the dome of heat/high pressure should be a little easier to suppress, but it will be interesting to see how July and August shape up. Still going to have some hot days, but hopefully not a lengthy stretch of 100s.

Colorado is dealing with wildfire trouble because of the same dome of heat that is locked over Kansas. The winds are strong, there isn't much rainfall, and unfortunately, there isn't much change for the area. Millie and I hiked in Waldo Canyon during the 2nd week of June, so it is a little crazy now to think we were just there and now it is burning up. You get a wonderful view of Pike's Peak from the hike in Waldo Canyon, but now, it would be so covered in smoke, you wouldn't likely see anything.What a tough job for firefighters to fight those huge flames when the temperatures are so dang hot.

Waldo Canyon fire spreads

Map of current fires in Colorado

Motorcade follow up

My proof of meeting the President finally came in the mail a few days ago and I thought I should share it with you since I discussed the motorcade experience in my last entry. This will be one of the most fascinating things I'll do in my lifetime, and I'm still working on compiling my pictures and the emails exchanged leading up to that day. There were 6 primary drivers in the motorcade, but two alternates in case something were to happen (i.e. sickness, injury, etc)

We had some storms Sunday evening (June 10) in southcentral Kansas and a viewer sent us a StormShot that I thought was worth sharing again. Technology advances with the KWCH app and cell phones has led to a dramatic increase in the number of pictures that we get during and after storm events. We can't possibly use them all on the air, but it is fun to sort through them to see how the storm pictures match up with the reports we receive through the event. Let's hope for more rain soon. We need a big system to approach from the west coast, and it will be awhile before we see that happen again.

Once in a Lifetime

Air Force One landing at 6:30

Air Force One prior to departure

I drove the white van in this picture

It was an experience that I'll never forget and as you've probably heard before, pictures just don't do a justice. I was invited to drive in the President's motorcade by a friend of mine from Ellsworth. She was 2 years ahead of me in high school and now works for the White House. I've always been really fascinated with the office of the President and some of the inner workings that you don't see on TV. It  doesn't matter who you voted for, you have to respect President Obama for his leadership and the job at hand because we know, it isn't easy. The chance of driving in his motorcade wasn't something I thought was possible for the general public, but they take a few volunteers to drive 15 passenger vans that carry members of the White House media staff, and that was my job in the motorcade.

The security sweep is very intense and takes place about 2.5 hours prior to Air Force One's arrival. Once cleared, the vehicles are lined up in the order in which they'll drive in the motorcade, and I was about 8 or 9 vehicles behind the President (I drove the white van in the picture next to the limousine). The amount of security was overwhelming to me, from secret service agents to snipers on top of buildings. It is nothing short of amazing to watch the security agents work to keep things moving. Once the motorcade starts, it doesn't stop until it reaches its final destination. Our drive lasted about 15 minutes, both to and from Joplin's Regional Airport to Missouri Southern State College. All entrance and exit ramps were closed and any possible access point to the motorcade route was closed off. It was like driving in a parade, but no candy was thrown and it moved at speeds up to 55 mph.

I was also very excited to see the President's limousine up close and amazed at how massive the vehicle must be to protect the passengers. The glass is extremely thick (like bank glass that tellers stand behind) and the doors must be 12 inches thick. The tires are reported to be all rubber and puncture proof, but just standing next to the car, it is tough to tell any difference between those tires and ones that would be on any car. With a huge smile on my face, I did get to shake hands with Mr. Obama, and the picture we took will come from the White House in a few weeks. There was just enough time to say our name and for him to thank us for driving in the motorcade Monday. So if you are thinking to yourself "if I ever meet the president someday, this is what I would say"... well you would be wrong because you are so overwhelmed with what is taking place, you don't even think to say anything other than "it's so nice to meet you"


The entire trip was one I won't ever forget. The tornado definitely left a mark on Joplin and even a year later, there is still some rubble that needs to be cleared and many buildings that haven't been constructed yet. It is tough to sum up my entire experience on this blog, but it was fantastic and I'll be sharing all of my pictures on the web, so be looking for them on KWCH.com






Air Force One just prior to touching down



Millie standing where a business once stood in Joplin

New study taking place

A new research project is about to get started in the central and southeast US and the home base is going to be in Salina. Scientists are going to study the environment surrounding tall thunderstorms that reach into areas just below the stratosphere. Their ultimate goal is to learn more about the chemistry of the atmosphere that surround the cumulonimbus clouds (giant thunderheads) because this area of the atmosphere has a big influence on climate and patterns. Ozone, which traps large amounts of energy from the sun, gets carried to high altitudes when thunderstorms start rapidly developing.

There have been previous studies, but this one will focus more on the electrical activity, chemical makeup, and air movement at altitudes around 11 miles high in the atmosphere. Three research aircraft will be used in this project and will be based out of Salina, centrally located to the areas they will be flying (Colorado, Alabama, and Oklahoma). The plan is to fly around and through the tops of thunderstorms to collect data. Other tools, including lightning mapping and mobile radars, will be used to put together a comprehensive picture of the storms. The picture attached is the Gulfstream V that will be flying at the highest altitudes.

An unusual picture

In the wake of the big tornado outbreak on April 14th, I'm still thinking back to that day and remembering particular radar images, different things we said, and some of the amazing storm shots we collected that night. There were so many unusual events taking place that night, such as 4 tornado emergencies issued in one night (Macksville, Conway Springs, south Wichita, and east Wichita). The other thing that was unusual (but not unheard of) is that the National Weather Service in Wichita (located by Mid-Continent Airport) turned their duties over to the National Weather Service office in Topeka. It is rare that during a big tornado outbreak, you would see the weather service operations center empty. But when the storm was coming out of northern Sumner county and approached Clearwater, we were informed the staff at the Wichita weather service office may in fact take cover. So as the storm rolled into Wichita, here is what their office looked like. I've had a first hand glance at the room in which they take shelter, and it's very small and reinforced for their safety.

Several people have asked what KWCH would do if a tornado approached our studio location on the north side of town. We have narrow hallways here and they are made of concrete, cinder blocks. That's where our staff would likely take cover in the event of a tornado, but we wouldn't take those precautions unless we were certain KWCH was going to take a direct hit. In my career, I've only signed off one time, and that was during my time at Channel 6 in Lawrence when a storm was coming right over the city and had been producing tornadoes. It's not something we like to do, but when it comes to safety, we don't take any chances.

Warning changes

You may have heard recently that there will be some minor changes in the severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings that are issued in parts of Kansas. I say "parts" because the National Weather Service offices in Wichita and Topeka are participating in an experimental project that will hopefully make the warnings issued more effective when the public gets the message. In the wake of more than 500 tornado deaths that occurred in 2011, an assessment conducted by meteorologists and social scientists found the public is getting complacent with the warnings.

If confidence is high that a destructive tornado will occur, words like "catastrophic" and "threat to human life" will be included in the warnings. If a tornado is possible, but not necessarily confirmed, words like "radar indicated" will be used in the bulletins. Still a serious situation, but maybe not life threatening at that time.

The hope is that people will perceive the most significant storms as possible life changing events and take the necessary steps to protect property and human life. Too many times when a tornado warning is issued, we have a tendency to want to go out and "see" with our own eyes what is going on. The other problem is that people wait for the tornado sirens to go off, and by then, you may only have seconds to react to the approaching storm. Research showed that the loss of life in Joplin was high because people waited to hear the sirens as their first means of getting the warning information.

There is no change in the criteria for a storm warning to be issued. It is still 1 inch hail, 58 mph wind or stronger, or tornadoes. So if you hear our team communicate warnings a little differently this spring and summer, you'll know what is going on. This is an experimental project, and based on its success, will determine if the rest of the country goes to this new method. So stay tuned.

Cold Air Funnels

Although they look almost identical to tornadoes, they are not and usually occur less frequently than twisters. Cold air funnels were spotted developing with the rain showers Tuesday afternoon across Kansas and when you look at the picture, you'll understand why they are mistaken for tornadoes. The setup for cold air funnels involves a large area of low pressure spinning around in the middle atmosphere. The spinning involved with the low pressure system can sometimes get "stretched" vertically by the developing rain showers, and that's when you can sometimes see the funnels extending from the sky. Here is a good example of one that developed Tuesday afternoon.

It is rare that they ever touch the ground, but if they do, damage is minimal. Tornadoes come from thunderstorms that are usually 7-10 miles wide and rotate; cold air funnels come from large areas of rotation in the atmosphere and are not usually associated with thunderstorms. So cold air funnels and tornadoes look alike, but actually, they are quite different.

Spring 2012 Outlook

Wednesday night we rolled out an outlook for Spring 2012. Some of you are saying "what winter?" and I know what you mean. It never really got that cold for much of the state. We usually have at least one or two days in the winter months where the high temperature gets stuck in the teens, but this year, that was not the case. In the winter of 2010-2011, there were 6 days with highs in the teens.

So with the unusual weather this winter, everyone is asking what the spring will be like and are we in for another scorching hot summer?

Long range forecasts are difficult, but I enjoy looking ahead and studying what data is available to try and make a prediction that goes out several months. The weather pattern has a tendency to cycle from the previous fall, through the winter months, and continue into spring. So by studying the pattern closely, I think a meteorologist can draw some conclusions about what lies ahead. The pattern has been dominated by strong low pressure systems coming out of the southwest and moving across the central Plains. Much of Kansas has recorded some decent rains through the period of December 1 - Feb. 29th. Wichita is more than 4 inches ahead of normal for the period Dec. 1 - Feb. 29th. Salina is almost 2 inches ahead for the same period. Had the temperatures been colder this winter, we could've had significant (maybe even historic) snows. I think this pattern will dominate into the spring months, meaning we should have more severe weather this season (compared to 2011) and it should start earlier than usual. We've already seen evidence of this taking place with the tornadoes that touched down at the end of February. There is no way of making an accurate prediction on the number of tornadoes we might have this spring, but I think we'll surpass the 68 tornadoes that we had in 2011.

So be prepared for an active season. Storm season ramps up in April and May, and if conditions hold, both months could be very active.

Space Station Video

I found these videos from the International Space Station the other day and thought they were so interesting. We don't hear much about it in the news now that the shuttle program has ended, but I think it is so fascinating how things look at night when you are 230 miles above the Earth. And, they are traveling at 5 miles per second, which comes out to be roughly 17,500 miles an hour. The crew on board could see a sunrise once every 92 minutes.

I'm posting a video that shows what it looks like from the International Space Station at night when flying from Mexico to New Brunswick. Can you pick out the individual cities at night? One of the first big cities you'll see is Dallas. And toward the end of the video, you will catch a glimpse of the Aurora (Northern Lights). The astronauts on board really get an amazing show as they travel around the Earth.

The other video I'm posting is of a moonset. Enjoy!

Lack of snow

This has definitely been a snowless winter for many parts of Kansas. We had the big snowstorm before Christmas in western Kansas, but since that storm, there hasn't been any significant snow events for our area. Storms that move up from the desert Southwest are usually notorious for producing widespread snows, and we've had several come through the southwest, but the lack of cold air has allowed the precipitation type to be predominately rain.

If the recent trends continue and winter ended now, this would be the least snowiest winter on record for Wichita. Our annual snowfall is around 15-16 inches. We'll make it into the top 10 least snowiest winters if we have less than 3.9" for the season. So far, we are stuck at .4".

I'm not a huge fan of snow, but I'd like to have at least 1 or 2 good winter systems to track before we head into spring. And when I think back to how hot it was last summer, it makes me want snow just a little bit more. Whew, we should hope next summer is not as extreme as the last.

Lack of Snow

This winter has been "snowless" for many areas across the United States. Places like Chicago where normally they would have about 10-12 inches of snow already for the season, have only 2 inches. Milwaukee, WI averages about 15 inches of snow by this point in the season, but have only recorded 1.7" Check out the picture I've attached here. The top picture is the current winter, and the bottom picture is from two years ago when "El Nino" was influencing our winter pattern. It is a striking difference the two winters. The lack of snow in the northern Plains is allowing air masses that move out of Canada to warm up as they move south.

Why the lack of snow? Some people want to contribute it to the very hot summer we had, but you can't connect the two. Remember, several people thought we would have a very bad winter because of the extreme heat, but that hasn't happened. What is contributing to the lack of snow is the La Nina phenomenon that sets up in the Pacific Ocean and forces the storm track further north.

I still expect the 2nd half of January to be colder with increasing chances for moisture. There will be better chances for snow, now that we are in January, but we'll figure out precipitation type as the storms get closer.