Caterpillar's forecast for the winter

 
Several of you have asked about the upcoming winter and how bad will it be? Or will it be mild? We just don't know yet, but may have some insights in another month or so. But while Millie and I were hiking Wednesday morning, we came across this little guy. We've all seen them before, but I couldn't remember what it means if they have large brown stripes vs. smaller ones. It sounds like if the caterpillar has a large brown stripe, a mild winter is coming. If the brown strip is small, expect a harsh winter. But what about in this case? There wasn't a brown strip at all (and the picture doesn't show the black very well). Maybe that means no winter at all, but I've only seen one caterpillar.  There could be others out there that have a better prediction. It's just folklore after all, but fun to consider what might be ahead (unless of course you dread winter)

I know the Farmer's Almanac (as misleading as it can be sometimes) is calling for a rough winter, but let's wait and see what the next 45 days bring to Kansas. That might give us a better understanding of what could be coming. I think we are overdue for an ice storm, but Millie would prefer snow or rain over ice. I don't think she's alone.

Changing weather pattern

I think I've mentioned this before, but fall is my favorite season in weather around Kansas. It's always exciting to watch as the atmosphere changes from warm to cold. Everything starts getting stronger when colder air gets involved. The winds aloft (50,000 feet), the cold fronts, the storm systems, etc. and each passing system means a variety of weather.

In the next two weeks, we will likely see some interesting storm systems move across the US, and if the longer range models are right, at least one of them will be quite strong. Too much rain in Colorado has been devastating, so we don't want that, but more moisture wouldn't be so bad, especially in the southwest corner of the state.

Take a look at this forecast image for Saturday, Sep. 21st. Colder air from Alaska heads south, while warmer air from Mexico continues to move north. As time goes along, the colder air from the north will win every battle it encounters with the warm, and fall weather will be here to stay. The big "L", or storm system on the west coast, will be headed for Kansas early next week, and should bring at least a chance for moisture, and another cool down. Between Thursday, Sep. 19 and the end of the month, there should be at least 3, if not 4 more storm systems coming through. Let's hope we get the moisture we need now, because it's more difficult in the months of October and November as the air begins to dry down.

Weather map valid Saturday, Sep. 21

If you came by the KWCH booth during the fair and said hi to Millie, thanks. She has been pretty tired, and it seems like recovering from the fair takes a little longer now that she's a little older. But we enjoyed meeting everyone.

Millie, the weather, and KS State Fair

By now, you've probably seen pictures of Millie in the 100th year of the Kansas State Fair parade that took place on Labor Day. We were so glad it had cooled off for the day because the 1919 Model T we rode in had no air conditioning. The north breeze made the day almost perfect. I'm posting a few pictures from the parade on Monday. The governor walked up and said "hey, it's Millie the weather dog". So her fame has now reached the statehouse. Don't know yet if she'll run for an office. Denny Stoecklein, Kansas State Fair General Manager, has ordered highs in the low 80s and sunshine during the 10 day event. Doesn't look like the fair will start out that cool, but it will be dry. By the way, Millie and I will be on the fairgrounds on Tuesday, and the second Saturday (the 14th) at the KWCH booth. So come on by and we'll try and set you up with some goodies.

The weather pattern doesn't change this week. So it's basically more of the same day after day. Sunshine and hot weather will be the main features this week. Normal high for this time of the year is about 88 and we will pass that by early afternoon. September is a month when we begin the transition to fall, but you wouldn't know that by looking at this weeks weather. We do see some changes taking place during the second full week of the month. A cold front will arrive along with some chances for rain beginning on Tuesday, the 10th and lasting through Wednesday. Temperatures should fall into the 80s for highs. Some forecasts are calling for an active 2nd half of September, so we will be watching to see if that setup is indeed coming to Kansas. Stay tuned.