By now, you have probably heard about or even seen the video of the meteorologist in Tupelo, MS that ordered the news staff to the basement during the tornado. (copy and paste the link in a browser if you want to watch it)

http://www.mediabistro.com/tvspy/wtva-meteorologist-orders-staffers-to-the-basement-as-tornado-sweeps-through-tupelo_b120067

Matt Laubhan (the chief meteorologist at WTVA) and I went to college together and graduated at the same time. He was interviewed on ABC's Nightline last night saying how we (meteorologists) order everyone to shelter, and what better way to set an example than to go there yourself when a tornado is heading right for your station. I've only done that once and it was during my time in Lawrence while working at Channel 6. We knew the rotation would be passing right over the station, and just to be safe, we left the radar up while seeking a safe place across the road from the station. At KWCH, we have the advantage of using wireless mics and what we would do is leave the radar picture up while moving to a secure hallway just outside of the studio. We don't have a basement at the station, but we do have some very secure areas that would help protect us. We just hope we never have to use them.

Wind forecast (in 6 hr increments)

Everyone is sick of the wind. Wednesday will see wind gusts between 35 and maybe 45 mph, but then they will start backing down heading into Thursday. You can see the wind graph shows most of the wind that we get is during the afternoon, and then backing off some during the night. The wind is actually going to be helpful during the early morning hours by preventing any widespread frost the next few days. As long as we keep the air mixed up in the early morning, we shouldn't have to worry about covering plants (or killing off the state's wheat crop if the drought hasn't done that already)

The pattern has been blocked up by this slow moving low pressure system over the upper Midwest. It will finally move Thursday and allow for some warmer changes to return by the weekend. The winds will go down for Friday and Saturday. And overall, the weather pattern looks very benign for about 3-4 days. There is some discussion about severe weather chances returning during the middle of next week, but for now, let's focus on getting out of this windy stretch we've been on. It's making a lot of people crabby... and I can't blame ya. Have a good day.

Some rain (better than dust); still windy

Good Tuesday morning! I don't know how many dusty pictures we've received in the last 3 days, but with drought and wind, it's no wonder our soil is taking off. While this giant storm system creates destructive storms, we are putting up with the crazy wind. We get the benefit of some rainy weather today, although our Future Track model shows how little the amounts will be. Maybe enough to wash some of the dust out of the air today, but that's really about it.

wind forecast - Wednesday

Wind forecast - Tuesday

As far as the wind is concerned, we still see some very gusty conditions today and tomorrow, but then we should have a little less wind to deal with by Thursday. This giant low pressure system will finally get far enough away from us that our wind will back down. There is a good side of the windy weather in the early morning hours though. It will keep us from seeing frost in Kansas. As long as the wind stirs up the atmosphere, it will keep frost from killing off some our plants, and for the farmers, the wheat crop. Sure, if we don't get rain, the wheat won't do much anyway, but frost is absolutely what we don't want right now.

I stayed at work late Monday night watching the severe weather close in on the Birmingham, AL area. I'm posting a radar image as the storm went over the Bessemer. You just can't miss the hook on the back of the storm, and the red circular icons near the tail end of the storm are debris signatures. Honestly, I hardly ever watch much of the Weather Channel, but it was interesting listening to Dr. Greg Forbes and Jim Cantore do live radar analysis as the new images arrived. We spend so much time in school learning about the different features and characteristics of what the radar is showing, but each storm behaves differently and when you are in continuous coverage mode, you have to figure out what you are seeing right there in front of your entire audience. From a science standpoint, it's very fascinating, but if your home is hit by one of those storms, it's very sad and unfortunate. So keep the people hit by storms the last few days in our thoughts... and for us in Kansas, keeping hoping for rain!!

Sunday severe weather - windy week ahead

Tornado reports

Wind Reports

After one of the slowest starts to the severe weather season in history, it certainly took off Sunday afternoon for areas to our east. An EF3 tornado in North Carolina touched down last Friday, making it the latest first major tornado to touch down in a calendar year in the US. I don't know how many tornadoes there were yesterday, but there were several reports and even a few long track tornadoes. Saturday really turned out to be a dud for most of the area. Temperatures in the mid levels of the atmosphere were a little too warm and the main part of the system was just too far west. But Sunday is proof that when everything comes together at just the right time, you get some very violent weather. I'm posting storm reports from Sunday and you'll see the string of tornado reports from Arkansas, which is the same one that went through Mayflower.  The storm must have produced a tornado for more than 2 hours. Storms that position themselves in just the right environment can survive for very long periods of time. I'm not an expert at storm damage assessment, but it looks like at least EF4 damage and we will certainly find out some more information later today.

Hail reports

Because of this big system, most of the Gulf of Mexico moisture will be pushed well south and east of Kansas. So our severe threat is essentially nil for the rest of the week. Our biggest concern will be wind... and a lot of it. I would expect some wind all the way through Thursday and probably into Friday as well. This HUGE system just won't move much, so we will be under it's influence for quite awhile. The month of May will pick up where April left off in the fact that it will continue to be very dry. Our best hope for moisture this week is a chance for showers Tuesday, but that will likely be it for the rest of the week. I keep hoping for some big rains, but we just can't seem to get one of these systems to work it's magic over our state. Let's hope it changes soon.

Had a great time running the Hard Charge Saturday at the Kansas Coliseum. It was 4.2 miles and 23 or 24 obstacles. Nothing like getting dirty and wearing a bunch of mud for a few hours. I love looking at the pictures when it's all over to see how gross everybody looks, but it's a good time.

Weekend severe chances

We made it to Friday and as you make plans for the weekend, just remember there will be chances for severe storms both Saturday and at least early Sunday. It's not looking like an outbreak of severe storms and there is some question as to whether or not storms even develop Saturday evening, but we'd rather you be prepared than caught off guard. (click on any image to make it larger) Our Future Track model does develop storms after 6 p.m. Saturday evening and that seems to go along with one of the other reliable computer models that we look at when making a forecast. But it's very likely that the storm coverage will be very isolated. However, storms that do develop will have a very high chance of producing some large hail. I'll give it just a "medium" chance of having tornadoes. There is enough wind in the atmosphere to support having a few, but big tornado days usually have more moisture in the atmosphere than what I think we will have Saturday. We'll see.

Sunday will bring another round of storms, but the best chance will come in the first half of the day. Severe storms usually come late in the afternoon, evening, or into the overnight, but we can still get them in the morning too. I do think some strong storms may come through central and eastern Kansas Sunday morning, but the greatest potential for severe weather Sunday will be well north and east of our area. So in summarizing our weekend severe chances, I'd say there is about an 18 hour window where we could get some bad storms, starting from around 6 p.m. Saturday evening and continuing up to about noon on Sunday. After that, we should be in the clear.

Next week still looks much cooler than normal with a chance for showers Tuesday AND... you guessed it... more Kansas wind. Have a great weekend!!

Lots of rain for some; chances return into the weekend

Good morning bloggers. Well, here we are on the other side of some rain chances and some have looked in their gauge, only to find disappointment. As expected, heaviest amounts ended up in northern Kansas. I'm posting an image from our radar showing the estimated amounts from across the state, and you can easily see the band from Oakley to just west of Smith Center where 2 and 3 inch amounts ended up. It's easy to get frustrated because the need for moisture is so high, but the fact of the matter is everyone needs the rain, so you have to be happy for those that received something.

Let's focus on the next round of storms that should be coming our way. We have an intense low pressure system that will be coming through Arizona and New Mexico by Saturday evening. Just ahead of that system, moisture will increase across Kansas, setting central and eastern Kansas up for strong to severe storms by Saturday evening (anytime after 4 or 5 p.m.) Already, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the area at greatest risk of seeing hail and high winds. The main threat on Sunday may end up just east of us. Forecast models show the biggest storms over eastern Kansas and into Missouri by mid-afternoon.

Next week, our weather will be MUCH cooler than normal. Keep the jackets handy because afternoon temperatures will be in the 50s and some showery-type weather will return for Tuesday and perhaps into Wednesday. It's not a severe weather setup, but look at the low pressure that will be close to the central US, wobbling around over the region, keeping us cool and unsettled for the first half of the week. Bottom line... more chances for moisture. Woohoo!!

Severe threat and look who is back!!

Some early morning showers developed over central and northern Kansas this morning, but once again, it's just a spit and not enough to really do anything for us. Well, maybe mess up a nice clean windshield if you had just washed your car.

We are watching for severe storms this evening. The only limiting factor is rich, Gulf of Mexico moisture and for the weather enthusiasts, you can see that by looking at the dew points this morning. They are in the 30s and 40s, and will likely come up into the 50s later today. Good, rich moisture would have dew points in the 60s, and I don't think we will see them get that high later on. Nonetheless, some severe storms (main risk hail and wind) will develop after 4 or 5 in western Kansas, and then we should see a line form as they move farther east. Into the night, the main risk would be some damaging wind gusts of 60 mph. Don't forget, if the weather gets bad, most of our updates are on Always On Storm Team 12 and we stream that coverage to kwch.com. We will provide updates on KWCH too as conditions warrant, so look for us there. And of course you can follow the storms with us using the Storm Team 12 weather app. The radar on there is fantastic and you can see the alerts as they come in too.

The upcoming weekend could be stormy too. There will be chances for severe storms both Saturday and Sunday. Main threat will be over central and eastern Kansas, but the details are still a little uncertain this many days in advance. I will say this though, the setup looks like a classic severe weather event that could bring some tornadoes to the central and southern Plains. So be sure to check in with us through the remainder of the week to see where and when.

I had a nice day off Tuesday and had a chance to catch up on some projects around the house. I don't know if the warmer temperatures pushed me more than the extra hair in the house, but I decided it was time for Millie to have her summer buzz. I know there are some who disagree with me doing this, but I think this is the 8th year in a row and I've had good luck with it. Yesterday after we finished, she started running around the yard like she was on fire. I know she feels good and it's a nice break for me with all of the hair that she puts off. So... summer Millie has returned.

Happy Earth Day & Severe storms

Today is Earth Day... so maybe we should do something environmentally friendly today. It actually started in 1970 and is now celebrated globally every year on April 22nd. The date was picked as a way to reach as many students at college universities as they could to bring attention to air and water pollution. Now, Earth Day involves even more topics being discussed around the globe (such as clean energy)  I think Millie and I will go for a long walk and enjoy the wonderful earth around us (we get the day off, but it doesn't have anything to do with it being Earth Day)

Earth Day weather in Kansas looks pretty nice. Aside from the increasing wind that will take place in western Kansas, most of us will have a beautiful day. We still want rain though, and I'm guessing most of us would trade in this nice day for a widespread rain event, one in which we get 2 or 3 inches of moisture. The severe storm threat is still very much in play for Wednesday evening. It will likely begin after 4 or 5 in western Kansas, and then move east through the evening hours. Biggest threat looks to be some wind and hail, and by the time the storms get to central Kansas, I'd expect mainly wind producers. 

We will also have to keep an eye on the upcoming weekend forecast too. Computer models indicate a potential severe weather event for Saturday and maybe lingering into Sunday. Details to come!

Sunday evening rains and severe potential this week

Hope everyone had a nice Easter weekend. The rain wasn't much (at least for 95% of Kansas) but there were some pockets of big rains just west and north of Hays. This sort of thing seems to happen from time to time where some areas get it all, and others get missed completely. Look at the radar estimates from Goodland and the pockets of red would indicate the higher amounts. (click on any image to make it larger)

Good news is that we continue to have chances in the week ahead. Although we haven't dealt much with severe storms this spring, the chance seems to be increasing, especially by Wednesday. There's a pretty strong system that will be coming in from the west, and we expect storms by 5 or 6 pm in western Kansas. Those will push east late Wednesday evening. You can see the Storm Prediction Center has drawn an outlook or "risk" area for the middle of the week. The only limiting factor might be the higher humidity residing south in Oklahoma, but we still feel very confident in getting storms to erupt during the late afternoon and evening time frame. 

There is a chance we could be in for more strong to severe storms next weekend. Details to come throughout the week. Have a good week.

Is it true??

Good morning and finally, it's Friday. Yesterdays rain was just more of a tease than anything else, and if you were in northern Kansas, you probably didn't get anything at all. Even the areas that did have rain, it really wasn't much more than about a .10 of an inch. There has been some fog, and from the skycam view from downtown, it's beginning to burn off. We should be sunny the rest of the way today.

So I just heard (for the first time actually) that if it rains on Easter Sunday, it will rain the next 7 Sundays. Have you heard that before? One guy I talked with said it has happened before, while others would probably say no way. But when you think about how dry we are around Kansas, if that were to actually come true, we just might put a dent in the drought around here. Forecast models suggest rain amounts will be light over the weekend, with maybe some slightly higher amounts north. I think most of our weekend rainfall totals will be under .50", but we can always hope for more. This just isn't a very strong storm system coming our way.

Hope everyone has a Happy Easter. Blog update coming up on Monday. We will be focusing on potential severe storms next week. Stay tuned!

Did Millie drool & new weather graphics

Millie is such a hit with our viewers and so many people ask me about her good behavior. I don't know how I got so lucky having a dog that listens to me as well as she does, but sometimes, I have to go the extra mile to keep her focused. I'm fairly certain Millie likes hanging out in the weather center and on set during the newscasts, but in order to keep her from laying down and falling asleep while we are still on the air, I have to bait her with a milk bone or some kind of treat (quite frankly, I think she is "over" this whole TV thing). This explains why at the end of the newscast, you see her looking off to the side because she's gazing at a small milk bone that waits for her AFTER we end the show. It's happened on a few occasions, but sometimes the sight of the treat is enough to get her drooling before the cameras stop rolling. Here's a picture that was sent to me from one of our viewers, suggesting we get her a drool bucket.

We were excited to put our new weather graphics on TV Wednesday evening. We didn't change things up dramatically, but some of the forecast graphics will look different. The regional 7 day forecasts are designed now to show Wichita two times, and the other zones should be up a little longer. One big benefit of the new equipment is we will have access to more timely data and our Future Track will be updated more frequently. The biggest change takes place behind the scenes for our meteorologists inputting the data. We hope in the long run it's a time saver, but we are all still very much learning as we go. Change is scary sometimes, but in this case, it's a chance to have some fresh stuff to look at on the air. Let us know what you think.

We are still on track to have a nice start to the weekend, but rain chances increase Saturday night and Sunday. I'm still not expecting any huge amounts, but once again, I think we will be happy to have anything right now. No severe storms this weekend, but there could be some instances of thunder with some of the heavier activity.

Most areas can expect about .25", but there will be some pockets that get a little more by the end of Easter weekend.

Next few rounds of rain chances

Good morning bloggers. It seems like every time we forecast rain 5 or 6 days in advance, as it gets closer, we scare the heaviest south, east, or north of us. I think that's what is going to happen on Thursday with yet another system tracking across the central US. Earlier in the week, it looked like we might get something to produce widespread showers (nothing heavy), and now, it looks like it will slide just far enough south that we won't get much out of the first rain chance in the extended period.

There is a much better chance for there to be rain over the Easter weekend. Timing may not be the best, but we can't be picky when you're dry as a bone. It looks like it could be a statewide rain chance by Sunday, but once again, doesn't look like the amounts will be all that high. Biggest problem here is we are talking about a weak storm system, but maybe it will hang around longer than 12 hours to give us more than just a tenth of an inch. We can hope.

I'm sharing another picture from the lunar eclipse the other night. We have some really good photographers in our viewing area that like to share pictures with us (and it's very nice). This one is from Kelly Seal in Wichita and she calls herself an "amateur", but I think it's about as good as anything I've seen. If you missed it the other night, the next one is October 8, and there are two more after that. The solar eclipse in March of 2015 will not be visible from the United States. It looks like the next solar eclipse (where the moon passes between earth and the sun) visible here in the US will be on August 21, 2017 (so you have some time to prepare)

Record lows and another chance for rain

Did you get up for the lunar eclipse this morning? What a spectacular view with Mars just to the side of the moon. I woke up at 1:15 and it was just beginning, but then I fell back asleep and missed the total eclipse. Bummer. Hopefully if you wanted to see it, you remembered.

So far, it looks like we've had record low temperatures in Russell where the morning low dropped into the teens. And Salina starting out with 22 breaks the old record of 23. What a cold morning for April! I certainly hope this wasn't the nail-in-the-coffin for the winter wheat crop, but experts will tell you there probably isn't a way to know for sure until closer to harvest time when you can see how much grain is actually in the head.

Rain amounts from the GFS computer model

We are hopeful for some much needed moisture again Wednesday night into Thursday. One computer model puts the higher amounts across southwest Kansas where they definitely need it. I think it may be slightly overdone with amounts between .50-1 inch, but we should get something out of the system Wednesday night - Thursday. There may even be a little more snow mixing with the rain in far western and northern Kansas. And how bizarre is this for the middle of April? Talk about a quiet start to the severe weather season for much of the country. The 4-8 day outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has no risk areas. We've had several systems pass through, but so far, most of the severe storms have all been to our east. I'm not complaining about missing the hail, wind, and tornadoes, but I do hope we can start getting some of the systems to produce rain. We want that moisture going into the summer season.

Cold, snow, and total lunar eclipse

What is going on with this weather? Several people have been lodging complaints on Facebook and Twitter about the cold and snow, or maybe it's a complaint about how little rain you received this weekend. Either way, we can't make everyone happy, but warmer weather and some rain sure looks appealing to most right now. This big storm system that created the severe weather on Sunday has produced some light snow for us here in Kansas. Here is a view from Dodge City at 7:30 this morning. It didn't amount to very much, but it's enough to have some of you scratching your head wondering what month we are in.

After a hard freeze again Tuesday morning, temperatures will be back to near 60 and close to 70 for Wednesday. We are watching a storm system that will arrive on Thursday, and that will be the next chance for some rain by then.

In the meantime, get ready for our first total lunar eclipse since 2011. The partial eclipse begins at 12:58 a.m. Tuesday (central time) and total lunar eclipse starts at 2:07 a.m. The total eclipse will end at 3:25 a.m. The moon should turn red because it passes through the earth's shadow and no direct sunlight will be reaching it. Remember, a lunar eclipse happens more frequent than a solar eclipse. If you miss the one Tuesday morning, the next chance to see part of a lunar eclipse will be October 8th of this year.

Burn Scars and weekend rains

The National Weather Service in Topeka sent out this satellite picture earlier in the week showing the burn scars over the Flint Hills from the recent controlled burns. It brings back memories of when I was a kid growing up on the farm/ranch and we'd do some controlled burning. It was always an adrenaline rush (much like storm chasing) because you had to help keep the fire contained. We'd be out there with old wet mattress pads and buckets of water to do our best at keeping the flames under control. And you tried not to inhale more than your fair share of smoke either.

We are still on track for some rain this weekend. There will also be a chance for thunderstorms too, which isn't a surprise considering the time of year. The chance is somewhat isolated for Saturday, but thunderstorms that develop will have a chance of producing some large hail. The highest likelihood of that happening is over northern Kansas (where the Storm Prediction Center has drawn a slight risk). Any severe storms Sunday will be in eastern Kansas (see the day 3 image) and should be spotty (at least the severe stuff). Computer models give us some decent rainfall (more than just a spit) out of this weekend storm. Take a look at the forecast rainfall amounts from one computer projection this weekend. Not a drought buster, but if we get over .50", count your lucky stars. We are in bad need of rain right now.

A cold front has now moved through Kansas and it will keep our temperatures from getting as warm as they did yesterday. Wow! Almost 90 in much of northern Kansas late yesterday afternoon. The warm day felt pretty nice, but I think it's dangerous getting that warm this early in the season. Back in 2011, we hit 90 early in April, only to go on and have 40+ 100 degree days. I don't think any of us want that. One year ago today, we actually had some icy weather in Kansas today. Highs were in the 30s, so April can definitely throw us some curve balls like March normally does. The surface map posted here shows the front pushing through the region at 7:45 a.m. Hasn't done anything except change the winds around and it will keep things a little cooler.

This next maps shows a fast moving system coming from the northwest for Thursday night that could bring a few sprinkles or showers to the area. It's not very impressive. You are actually looking at the "spin" in the atmosphere, and it's something meteorologists look at everyday. It's part of the computer models that we analyze to figure out the forecast. It will zip through here overnight and if we are lucky, produce a little rain.

We still think the best chance for rain will come this weekend. The last map here shows the cold front position at 4 p.m. Sunday. Lots of rain and storms forming on the front. It still doesn't look like a severe weather setup, but there could be some small hail with the stronger storms. Northwest Kansas will be getting a cold rain behind the front with strong north winds. Rainfall amounts this weekend (where there are thunderstorms) could be close to an inch. The west won't get as much, but we will take anything we can get. Have a good Thursday.