Rainfall totals and drought update

Rain continues to move from west to east across Kansas this morning. Throughout the week, the computer models have been showing the heaviest of the rain would end up across southwest Kansas, and that's exactly where it is this morning. Some areas that have struggled to get any rain the last few years continue to get moisture this year, and what a welcome change. Here are the rainfall totals through 7 a.m. this morning:

Garden City: 1.73"

Dodge City: 0.80"

Smith Center: 0.69"

Liberal: 0.61"

Pratt: 0.42"

Elkhart: 0.36"

Goodland: 0.26"

Medicine Lodge: 0.22"

July 22nd drought monitor

Just a quick update on the drought here in Kansas. It does continue even after all of the rainfall we had in June. The moisture hasn't been quite as generous in July, and some areas now are falling a little behind for the year. But looking into August, the weather pattern looks like it will stay active, providing us with more opportunities for rain and storms. It is nice to see that there are no longer any "exceptional" drought areas covering Kansas, and even in places where we still have the severe drought classification, those areas have been getting moisture. 

Warming trend into the weekend

The forecast for Thursday and into the weekend looks dry and warmer. I think we've all can agree, temperatures could be much, much hotter heading into August, but for now, low 90s is about all the warmer we think it will get. 

Trading tornadoes for earthquakes

Are the earthquakes we are feeling here in Kansas outpacing the tornadoes? It's starting to feel like that after a relatively quiet storm season that I touched on yesterday. I think the earthquake Monday evening just before the start of our 10 p.m. broadcast caught us all off guard. But then again, there isn't a good way of knowing when those kinds of things are going to happen anyway. What's always amazing to me is how fast you can go from a routine evening around the TV station to crazy in just a matter of a few minutes. No doubt, when the earth starts shaking below you, it's going to get your attention. The phones were ringing off the hook for a good 30 minutes.

Map showing the epicenter of the quake Monday night and how far away people could feel it.

The Richter scale (used to measure the magnitude of the quake) is not a liner scale. For every jump in whole number (i.e. 3.0 to 4.0), it's 10 times the energy released from the quake. The one in Oklahoma last night was 4.3 and had a depth of just over 4 miles and could be felt up in some parts of central Kansas. It's still considered a light earthquake, and it isn't until you get up around 5 or stronger that you start getting concerned for possible damage.

Forecast for rainfall the next few days

Rain chances are increasing for the next couple of days. You can't complain about moisture in the middle of summer, and some of the heaviest will be in places that only had about 5-10 inches of rain last year altogether. The heavy rainfall will begin in southwest Kansas tonight and continue for much of the day tomorrow. Some places will see over 2 inches, and as the map shows, areas along the Oklahoma state line will have the best chance of getting some fairly significant moisture. If you are farther north, the amounts will drop off quickly. The storm system will exit the area Thursday, leaving us with dry and warmer weather for the end of the week.

Where did the severe weather go this year?

Tornado watch summary for 2014

This has been a relatively quiet severe weather season in Kansas. We've had a few tornadoes, including the EF-2 tornado that hit Baxter Springs. But just look at the tornado watch summary from Storm Prediction Center out of Oklahoma. There are some parts of the state that haven't been in a single tornado watch this year. In fact, North Carolina has had more tornado watches this season than Kansas. That's very unusual, but we're not complaining. The closest "hot spots" for tornadoes this year ended up being eastern Nebraska and Iowa. Thinking back on the last couple of seasons and most of the active weather has been east of Kansas. Some of that is largely due to the ongoing drought we've had in our area.

Best chance for statewide rain is Wednesday.

The temperatures will be staying below normal for the upcoming week. It's such a nice treat isn't it? I know some of you reading the blog this morning love hot weather and we still have a solid month coming up where we know it can get hot (highs in the 90s and 100s) The long range computer models through August 10th do not develop the huge, high pressure dome over Kansas or the central Plains. We may actually get through the next month with few or perhaps no 100 degree days. What would you say about that? Most of the state averages close to a dozen days where the high temperatures hit triple digits, but I think we will come in under that number when the summer is over. Now let's just hope the rains keep coming in a timely manner because we will want the moisture heading into fall.

Rainfall prediction from today - Thursday (July 31)

The best chances for moisture the next few days will be in southwest Kansas. Everyone else will have a chance on Wednesday, but it's going to be somewhat hit and miss. Have a great week and enjoy the cool down.

Weekend storms & rain forecast for next week

Happy Friday everyone. Do you have big plans for the weekend? Hopefully your plans include some way of beating the heat. Today and tomorrow could be some of the hottest weather we've had all year, but it's a little easier talking about the heat when you know it will get followed up with highs in the 80s.

One of the biggest forecasting challenges for tonight and tomorrow is figuring out where the best chances for storms will setup. I don't think we will have widespread rainfall this weekend, but there should be a few storms in Kansas.

A few storms may move across western Kansas Friday evening

Tonight, there could be some spotty storms across the far west, but I would expect after sunset the chances will fade as the atmosphere begins cooling down.

Watching for some storms Saturday evening across the west

Saturday afternoon and evening will bring another chance for some scattered storms to west-central and southwest Kansas. And another area that may have some storms would be in northeast Kansas. Anything that does develop should move southeast.

The cold front will come through Sunday morning, and next week we can expect highs in the 80s AND lower humidity. We've just been spoiled this summer, but then again as my co-worker Michael Schwanke pointed out, after the summer of 2011, we've earned this kind of weather.

Heaviest rainfall next week is targeting southwest Kansas. Have a great weekend. Millie and I will be back on the air Sunday evening.

A bulls-eye of heavy rain is looking more and more likely for southwest Kansas next week

Heat index & wild changes to end July

We had a discussion on Tuesday in the newsroom about heat index and someone asked how it's calculated. If you're like me, math was never a strong subject for you. I struggled a lot in school with all of the calculus involved in meteorology, but found a way to get through. This is the equation for figuring heat index. Next time we show it on TV, you can appreciate the computers that calculate it for us and we just display the end result.

HI = -42.379 + 2.04901523*T + 10.14333127*RH - .22475541*T*RH - .00683783*T*T - .05481717*RH*RH + .00122874*T*T*RH + .00085282*T*RH*RH - .00000199*T*T*RH*RH

Temperatures at 5 p.m. Thursday. Hottest weather behind a warm front in western Kansas

A warm front is going to push into western Kansas this afternoon and behind it, that's where I expect temperatures will hit 100. The wind is also going to be a bit stronger.

The hot weather overspreads the state on Friday

The hottest air will push east on Friday, so more locations will be hitting 100 in the afternoon. Once again, I expect the wind to be stronger for central and eastern Kansas.

We still have our eyes on much cooler air for next week. The front will come through Sunday morning, and temperatures start backing down in the afternoon. Most of us will still have 90s at the end of the weekend. But look what happens next week with our high temperatures. We are headed for 70s and 80s around the state, and some of this will depend on rain and cloud cover too.

Forecast for temperatures next Tuesday (July 29) Another unbelievable cool spell is headed this way

Looking for some much needed moisture? Based on what the computer models are showing, the best chances will be coming through Tuesday and Wednesday of next week with the heaviest of the rainfall likely in the west. Look for an update Friday morning. Have a good day.

Rainfall forecast from today - next Thursday (July 31)

A few storms; big changes next week

Ahhhh, the cold front has moved through Kansas and you're stepping outside thinking to yourself, what cold front. It still feels like summer. The front isn't as strong as the one we will see move through on Sunday, but it does mean we should stay

out of the 100s for today. It was just a few summers ago, that was almost impossible to do.

Wichita 100 degree count for 2014 - 1 day (May 4 - High: 102)
**By this time in 2011, the count was up to 29 100 degree days

Salina 100 degree count for 2014 - 5 days
**By this time in 2011, the count was up to 22 100 degree days

Future Track for this afternoon indicating some storms mainly forming along the KS/OK state line

A few storms may develop this afternoon over southern Kansas, but I would expect most of the activity to be very spotty and once the storms pop up, they should move south into Oklahoma. Rain is definitely a good thing in July, but most of us will be dry through the afternoon.

weather pattern for Tuesday, July 29

Patterns definitely repeat themselves in meteorology. That can be a good thing and a bad thing of course. In this case, I think you'll be happy with what is expected for next week. A very similar type pattern is going to setup where the heat gets pushed back west of the Continental Divide, and much cooler, almost fall-like weather will be coming south. This is what happened last week when record cool temperatures were recorded over the area. Early indications are that while the temperatures will be cooler next week, it probably won't be record setting. However, just mentioning that our highs will dip back into the 80s by Monday and Tuesday seems to perk a lot of people up. There will be some rain next week too and right now, it looks like most of that will fall in western Kansas.

Definitely hot, but another change coming

For Tuesday

These hot summer days make us all appreciate the modern convenience of air conditioning, but if you know someone without, be sure to check on them with these very hot afternoon temperatures. Once again today, heat advisories cover much of the state. Salina had a heat index yesterday of 111 for an hour. Be careful. We will likely see that again this afternoon.

I'll call them cold fronts, but in reality, this time of the year, the temperatures behind the fronts are far from cold. There are two fronts that will impact our weather in the coming week. The first one will move through tonight and early Wednesday, but the temperature change won't be anything significant. It's safe to say that tomorrow won't be as hot, but mid 90s isn't much of a cooldown for sure. High pressure in the upper atmosphere will continue to dominate the overall pattern, keeping the better chances for rain outside of our area.

Pattern for Wednesday, July 23

The second, more impressive front should be coming into the area late in the weekend. If the forecast models are right, we could be in for some more 80 degree weather at the start of next week. The large high pressure system will back up to the west and some of the cooler air around the northern Plains and Great Lakes would be allowed to filter this far south. On the leading edge of the cooler air, we may get some rain too. We will be watching it. I don't think the cool down will be quite as dramatic as last week, but I think most of us would be okay with 80s rather than 100+. And I still don't think there are any huge stretches of 100s coming this way anytime soon. Millie is okay with that. Have a good day.

Pattern for next Tuesday, July 29 as the high begins to shift west

Dangerous heat is here

Well, we knew the summertime heat would find it's way back to Kansas and here it is. Wow!! A very different forecast than the one we had last week. It's going to be dangerous to be doing any strenuous, physical activity this afternoon, so try to avoid it if at all possible. Heat illness can sneak up on you if you're not careful. Heat advisories cover much of the state for indices that will be 105 or higher.

I expect tomorrow will be even hotter just ahead of a cold front that will knock the temperatures down 5-10 degrees for the middle of the week. Sure, it's not a dramatic cooldown like we had last week, but if we can keep the temperatures below 100, I think we will all be in better shape.

Front position at 1 p.m. Wednesday. Less heat and a few storms possible

The rain chances this week are few and far between, and even those areas that have chances, they are slim. I think the best we can hope for will be Wednesday with the slightly cooler temperatures. 

It's doubtful that we will have highs in the 60s or 70s again anytime soon, but the long range computer models do show some cooler weather coming our way for the last week of July. So I wouldn't expect any lengthy stretch of 100s this summer. The pattern is just very different than two summers ago when we just couldn't break the heat.

Millie and I spent part of our weekend in Oklahoma City's Bricktown with a few friends. We had a great time enjoying the 80 degree weather and Millie kept a watchful eye on the crowds. I think she likes people watching.

Trading Seattle weather for Kansas weather

Crazy weather in July to say the least

I don't know about you, but for awhile this week, I've started to feel like we traded Kansas weather for Seattle. It's been cloudy, mild, some light rain showers, and the vegetation is nice and green. The average high in Seattle for this time of the year is 76 while in Kansas, it's 93. So needless to say, we have been spoiled this week and when the 90s return by Sunday, we will figure out really fast that it is still very much summertime. 

Weather pattern at the start of next week. The high pressure will allow for hotter weather to overspread the area

While some of you might be moaning and groaning that the hotter weather is coming back, I'll offer up this bit of good news. It doesn't look like the big dome of high pressure will ever be all that strong in the coming weeks. So it's not very likely that we will see a bunch of 100s in Kansas over the next weeks. Part of that too is the fact we've had some nice rains in the last few months, and with moisture in the soil and green vegetation, that should keep temperatures from getting out of control like the summers of 2011 and 2012 when we just couldn't get rid of the 100s. 

So enjoy what is left of summer, even if you are not a fan of the 90s (the temperatures... not the decade)  Autumn officially begins in just 2 months. Where does time go? Have a great weekend.

Rainfall totals and almost time for goodbye

How much rain have you had this week? The totals haven't been quite as impressive as the temperatures, but then again, we weren't forecasting any big amounts around the area. We did have some areas of southwest Kansas get an inch of rain yesterday, and that is sometimes impossible in July. So we are grateful for the moisture (even if just a little bit of it) and these temperatures are just amazing.

Rain totals ending at 7 a.m. today:
Dodge City: 1.13"
Elkhart: 0.91"
Hill City: 0.91"
Pratt: 0.60"
Medicine Lodge: 0.55"
Great Bend: 0.40"
Russell: 0.39"
Winfield: 0.18"
Liberal: 0.17"
Wichita: 0.04"
Jabara Airport: 0.02"
Goodland: 0.02"
Garden City: 0.01"
Hutch: Trace

I'm posting a map to show our average hottest period of the year. Keep in mind, the average high right now is 93 and it stays there until about July 28 or 29, and then it drops to 92. Interesting to see how you go farther south and east and the peak of the summer heat occurs later in August. 

Pattern heading into next week. Typical for July

The hot forecast is sort of like tax season. You can put it off only for so long, but at some point, it will find you and you'll have to face the facts. Well, that's what's happening with the shifting weather pattern and the return of the July heat. We know it's coming! It's just a matter of time. By the end of the weekend, the dome of high pressure begins to expand from New Mexico, and that will allow for the hotter temperatures to spread out into the central Plains. The monsoon moisture continues to rotate up the backside of the high pressure across Arizona and much of the desert areas. Some of that moisture may get drawn into Kansas early next week, which could lead to some storm chances. We will take another look later today, but wouldn't be surprised to have some thunderstorms around either Monday night or Tuesday. But the summer heat will be back before then

Welcome July rains

7 a.m. current temperatures

Good Wednesday morning. Isn't this weather amazing for July? The regional temperature map does not look anything like one for July 16th. So here are some of the funny comments I've heard from people in the last 24 hours.

"This weather makes me think about finding a Halloween costume and getting ready to Christmas shop"
"The cool weather has me ready for fall, but I haven't had enough camping and boating time"
"I'm sleeping with my windows open... in July of all months"

Satellite/radar shows the approaching system from Wyoming

There is a storm system tracking from Wyoming toward Kansas, and some of the higher amounts of rain will be in western Kansas (and more specifically, the southwest) where up to an inch of rain may fall by the end of Thursday. This is not a severe weather setup, mainly because of the cool temperatures. The cooler the air, the less likely it will be for severe storms, and that's what we are dealing with today and tomorrow.
Our Future Track model shows the better rain chances over the west heading into tonight.

Rain chances continue into Wednesday night, especially for the west

Tomorrow we will start focusing on the return of July heat. All good things must end, right? Well, it is July after all, and the huge dome of high pressure that typically shows up at this time of the year should be back for the end of the weekend. That will likely lead to hotter weather. But, it also looks like we could get some monsoon moisture coming this way too. We will focus on that tomorrow. Have a great day!!

Temperature trend is definitely up after Thursday

Welcome to fall.... well kinda

7 a.m. temperatures

Have you opened your windows yet to enjoy some of this cool, fall-like weather? I'm sure if you suffer with allergies, you may decide to keep your windows closed, but I thought the northeast breeze last night was too hard to pass up and decided to crack my window and turn off the AC. It's not very often we get to do that in July, but it will be nice to save a few dollars on the electric bill.

A string of 70 degree high temperatures in July is rare in Kansas

If you missed some of our broadcasts yesterday or this morning, we checked the history books and found the last time we had a string of 70s for highs in July was 10 years ago back in 2004, which proves this doesn't happen very often around here. But maybe this is an attempt from Mother Nature to balance out all of the 100s we had a few summers back. You know, at this time last year, we had already had 9 100s in Wichita. This year, so far, we've only had 1.

Forecast rainfall amounts from Tuesday night - Thursday at 6 p.m.

We will be getting some rain in Kansas tonight and tomorrow. The latest forecast models even show a chance lingering into Thursday for some parts of southern Kansas. No severe storms, instead, just some nice soaking rains, and the heaviest will in fact be over western Kansas. I'm expecting amounts close to an inch in the west before it all comes to an end Thursday afternoon. Rainfall amounts will drop off as you head farther east, with central Kansas closer to .50" or even less.

Chances for moisture drop off late week

Enjoy this weather while it's here. The typical July heat is coming back late in the weekend and next week. Highs will be back to normal by Sunday, which means, 90s and 100s. But we won't focus too much on that yet. Let's enjoy the cool weather.

Crazy temperature advisory

Perhaps we need a new alert in the meteorology world: crazy temperature advisory! This week will be quite unusual for Kansas in July, but I've already had a dozen or more people tell me they are excited about it. I know I'm excited to have some lows in the 50s and comfortable 70s during the day, but you might not be so excited if you are taking swimming lessons this week. Brrr...

So what is going on with this madness? There is a high amplitude weather pattern going on right now, so while we cool down significantly, some places are heating up rather significantly. One extreme is pushing up against another extreme, and we just happen to find ourselves on the cooler side this week. There is an unusually strong "L" spinning over the Great Lakes that is helping to push this cool air farther south, and it will go all the way down into the southern US by midweek.

Large bends in the jet stream, resulting in more dramatic shifts in weather

Just the opposite of a high amplitude pattern would of course be a "low" amplitude pattern where the jet stream has basically flatten out more, resulting in less dramatic shifts in weather. (You can click on any image to make it larger)

The pattern, or jet stream, doesn't bend north or south quite as far, which is a lower amplitude pattern. 

We will also get some more rain this week with the cooler than average temperatures. A storm system approaching from the northern Rockies will spread rain across western Kansas Tuesday night, and the rest of us will have a better chance on Wednesday. It's doubtful if we will even have thunderstorms. Instead, just some regular ol' rain.

Widespread rain is expected into Wednesday.

Enjoy the cooler weather because next week, July heat will be back... and maybe in a big way. We will see.

Finally Friday & potential for weekend storms

We've made it to the weekend and it's going to be a hot one across most of the state. No big surprise considering we are just about to the hottest point of the year (on average) and most of us will see highs in the 95-100 range. Make sure to keep yourself hydrated this weekend and check on those without air conditioning. Most of us will have dry weather to begin the weekend, but it won't be that way for the entire Saturday/Sunday timeframe. A slow moving front will be pushing south, and as the temperatures begin to back down some by Sunday, chances for storms will be increasing.

The highest likelihood of storms for tonight (Friday) will be across eastern Colorado into southwest Nebraska. Some parts of far northwest Kansas may have a few storms.

Saturday nights storms will include more of northern Kansas, with the best chance along the Nebraska state line out into Colorado once again.

That area of showers and storms will slide farther south on Sunday as the heat begins easing. I'm expecting more clouds around Sunday with less wind, and it really should turn out to be a nice end to the weekend.

Next week is still looking MUCH cooler. Highs in the 70s with some potential for rain Monday - Monday night. We will be focusing on that next week in the blog and on air. Have a terrific and safe weekend!

Big rainfall last night; crazy July weather is coming!

We've made it to Thursday. Did the storms wake you up last night (or early this morning)? Things were relatively calm at the start of the 10 p.m. newscast last night, but about 11 p.m., there were storms popping up all over the place. We had some half dollar size hail reported in Hutch just after 1 in the morning. This is how the radar looked as I was heading home for the night. Nighttime storms can always be a bit spooky just because you can't really see what the clouds look like and how bad the wind is blowing. The lightning was pretty intense too. We had some storms in Barton and Ellis counties that just wouldn't move. Look at the rainfall amounts below. Seems like you either had a lot of rain or very little.

Doppler Radar estimated rainfall amounts

Doppler Radar estimated rainfall amounts

Rainfall totals from across the area through 7 a.m.:
Great Bend: 3.84"
Smith Center: 1.82"
North Hays: 1.70"
Pratt: 1.59"
Wichita: 1.46"
Medicine Lodge: 1.37"
Russell: 1.20"
Hutch: 1.14"
Winfield: 0.86"
Jabara Airport: 0.75"
Hill City: 0.66"
Newton: 0.45"
Concordia: 0.36"
Salina: 0.09"

The last several summers have been quite hot across Kansas. Look at the triple digit count for Wichita and Dodge City (from May 1 - July 9) over the last 4 summers. Of course, the summer of 2011 and 2012 are ones we won't soon forget. Most of the state set records during those summers. Hard to believe we had almost 2 dozen 100 degree days at this time 3 years ago. Wichita averages about 12 days with highs at or above 100.

Wichita:                2011: 17 days,      2012: 12 days,     2013: 6 days,     2014: 1 day

Dodge City:          2011: 17 days,     2012: 15 days,      2013: 13 days,    2014: 0 so far

Forecast temperatures at 4 p.m. next Wednesday

We are still on track to have potential record cool weather next week. The models have been showing this now for nearly 4 days! It may feel like summer in Canada with the type of weather we have heading this way. It's also looking like we will get some rain next week too. The timing is a little bit in question right now, but the way things are going, I would expect rain Monday night and widespread cool air by Tuesday. Just look at the forecast temperatures at 4 p.m. next Wednesday. And it goes all the way down to Texas too. It will be just incredible.

Storms on the way; big change coming

Anyone else feel like summer is going fast? July seems to be moving quickly, but then again, summer usually goes that way as most of us stay busy.

Forecast for storms at midnight tonight

Another round of storms is likely in Kansas late this evening and into the overnight. While some severe weather is possible this evening, I don't think we will have a widespread event. Some of the activity is going to develop in Nebraska and all of the storms should move southeast through the night. You just can't complain about rain in July, but I know this will cause some issues with the wheat harvest in western Kansas. 

Average highs reach the peak next week

I mentioned this yesterday in the blog, but next week (on average), we will be entering the hottest part of the year. Our average high jumps to 93 and it stays there for almost 2 weeks. 

Weather pattern shift coming next week, resulting in MUCH cooler temperatures

But sometimes the weather doesn't always behave like it's supposed to. And next week will be a good example of that. Just as we enter what is supposed to be the hottest point of the year, we will see a HUGE swath of cool air coming down from the north. There is a low pressure that will setup near the Great Lakes and send the unseasonably cool air down to Kansas. It will likely begin Tuesday and last for several days next week. I guess this may be bad news for kids that want to go swimming, but the rest of us will probably enjoy giving our air conditioners a break and saving some extra money. It's definitely something we will be talking about as it gets closer. 

Less heat; a few summer storms

Welcome to Tuesday morning. Ready for some cooler weather? Yesterday was one of the hottest days we've had in 2 months (at least for some areas) with lots of 100s on the map. Thanks to a cold front and some rainfall in the overnight, we will be much cooler around the area today. Normal highs are in the low 90s. We are still just a few weeks away from what is considered the hottest part of the year (end of July and first few days of August)

Radar estimated rainfall amounts

If I didn't list your town below, it's because they didn't have anything at all. The heaviest rainfall was across northeast Kansas where some areas had well over an inch.

24 hour rainfall from around the area:

Goodland: 0.57"

Salina: 0.48"

Concordia: 0.48"

Russell: 0.28"

Great Bend: 0.11"

Hill City: 0.05"
Smith Center: 0.02"

Hutch: 0.01"

7 a.m. temperatures

Cooler air continues to filter south from the northern Plains. We saw this about a week ago when we had a few back-to-back days with highs in the 80s. Summer isn't half bad in Kansas when it rains and we don't have 50+ 100 degree days. 

Pattern for the week of July 14

Good news if you want more rain and cooler weather. The pattern is about to shift again next week. The long range computer models have been indicating this now for a few days. The upper high will get shoved back to the west and this should allow for some better rain chances to move this way, followed up with a big cooldown for the middle of next week. The storm track may end up over Kansas, and that would help to increase our chances for some widespread rains around here (beginning Monday night or Tuesday) So what I can tell you is that there are no indications that we will have long stretches of 100s coming up for Kansas anytime soon. We had our fair share of that back in the summer of 2011 an 2012, right? Have a good day.