Heavy rainfall and storms for part of the holiday weekend

We saw some BIG rainfall in spots Wednesday evening. Near Monument in Logan county, one location had almost 2 inches of rain in 15 minutes. That's what you call a downpour. Wow!!  And 9 miles west of Stockton in Rooks county, 5.50 inches of rain fell with the storms that moved through. The radar estimates north of I-70 are quite impressive. Several of the lakes and reservoirs throughout northern Kansas have been waiting on some big rains like this for awhile. 

24 Hour Rainfall amounts:

Hill City: 3.75"

Smith Center: 2.41"

Garden City: 0.67"

Concordia: 0.20"

Medicine Lodge: 0.19"

Goodland: 0.09"

Salina: 0.05"

Dodge City: 0.03"

Scattered storms chances for central and eastern Kansas can be expected through Friday afternoon. I just don't want you to get your hopes up for widespread, big rains because in reality, the heavy rainfall will likely be spotty. While most of us should get something, I'm only expecting between .50-1" in most areas. But there will be those occasional downpours where rain totals will go over 1 inch. Let's hope. 

Heading into the holiday weekend, we might see a stray shower or storm Saturday evening in far western Kansas, but the main concern will be a cold front coming into the area Sunday evening. There is a potential for severe storms across central and northern Kansas. I think the main threat will be strong winds over 60 mph, and this area of storms will move east/southeast heading into Sunday night. The southwest is the least likely area to see rain.

We should be dry and warm for Labor Day with temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90. Hope everyone has a safe and enjoyable holiday weekend.

Continuing storm chances & holiday weekend outlook

These scattered, summertime storms have been pretty frustrating because almost as fast as some develop, they fall apart. So if you've received some nice rain in the last few days, you are the lucky ones because so many of us have missed out. The isolated storms around south central Kansas dumped on a few areas. Melinda McCurley sent in some pictures from the Argonia/Freeport areas (down in western Sumner county) showing very heavy rains and a gauge that had about 2.5 inches in it by the time the storms finally started winding down.

The best chance for rain today will be in western Kansas, but tonight, we should see an eastward push to the rain, and around midnight or shortly after, some of the storms are expected to reach central Kansas.

It's not going to rain all day Thursday and Friday, but we have chances that will extend through both days. And if you are in the right place at the right time, you could get dumped on with heavy rains. So forecasting amounts is going to be hard to do in this situation, but most of us have a chance to get .50 to 1 inch of rain by Friday evening.

The holiday weekend forecast may have some changes to it in the next day or two. Here's what I'm starting to think may happen:

Saturday: Dry statewide with highs in the 80s. South breeze under 20 mph for most of the state
Sunday: Getting hot with temperatures near 100 in the southwest. The rest of the state will be back into the 90s with gusty south winds. 
Sunday Night: Cold front approaches from the northwest, and some storms may develop and move into northern Kansas late in the night.
Labor Day: Early a.m. showers and storms across northeast Kansas, then dry into the afternoon with highs in the 80s and lower humidity.

Be sure to check in with us later today and tonight to get updates on the rain chances and the holiday weekend.

Heavy rain for some, none for others

The rain just dumped on some areas of the state Monday night, but looking at the totals, the heavier amounts were few and far between. I'm posting some radar estimated totals for some of central and southwest Kansas, but I'll emphasize that these are just estimates and not actual amounts.

Doppler estimated amounts

Here are the rainfall amounts reported through 7 a.m.:

Russell: 1.05"

Pratt: 0.26"

Dodge City: 0.17"

Great Bend: 0.14"

Concordia: 0.14"

Salina: 0.10"

Goodland: 0.08"

Hutch: 0.06"

Medicine Lodge: 0.05"

Garden City: 0.03"

Hill City: 0.03"

We are still expecting the better chances to come Wednesday night - Friday over most of the state. The satellite/radar combination shows a low over Nevada. They desperately need rain in California and Nevada. The drought has been crippling for those in the agriculture industry out there. Water restrictions can't be too far off if things don't change. The "L" is forecast to continue moving east, but it's also going to be weakening through time. 

Future Track for 1 a.m. Wednesday

The focus for isolated storms Tuesday evening/night will once again be west and north. 

Future Track for 6 p.m. Wednesday

The chance will increase for central and western Kansas heading into Wednesday evening. 

And by Thursday, it will be a statewide chance for rain and some storms. I expect the activity to remain somewhat scattered, but if you're caught under the right storm cloud, you might get dumped on and pick up a nice 1-2 inch amount. Bring on the rain!!!

Slowly changing pattern this week

So many of you have been requesting cooler weather and we definitely need the rain. Some of you may even be ready for fall, which is now officially, just less than a month away. Only 4 days this month have failed to reach 90 degrees or warmer. And get this, we've almost had as many 90 degree days this month as we had in June AND July combined. August is showing it's dry and hot side, something we didn't see much of during the early part of summer.

Weather pattern today

Some parts of northern Kansas can expect storms Monday evening/night, and there will be another chance come Tuesday over northern Kansas where a front is stalled out. Most of that activity will move east or northeast.

The big high pressure system to our south and east will finally ease up and start moving away to the southeast. This will allow for a storm system to move in from the western US, and that's when some of our best storm chances for the week will arrive. I'm expecting to start seeing more rain in Kansas by Thursday and Friday. And the temperatures should be cooling back into the 80s later on during the week.

Pattern by Saturday as a western storm system finally arrives in Kansas

The rainfall forecast is keeping the heaviest moisture in Nebraska through next Saturday, but you can see a large part of central and western Kansas has a good chance of getting .50-1.50". That may not be enough, but it's a start and more is expected next week too.

Rainfall forecast through Saturday (Aug 30)

If you are interested in Tropical Storm Cristobal, it's expected to become a hurricane in the next few days, but doesn't look like it will have any direct impact on the east coast or Bermuda. There will be some dangerous waves, but the brunt of the system stays out over the Atlantic.

Millie's ice bucket challenge. The video is on our Facebook fan page

Hopefully you've had a chance to see Millie's ice bucket video. She's a trooper for putting up with me so well. What I didn't get on video was her rolling around in the grass shortly after I dumped the water on her head. Just trying to keep her cool during this heat wave we're having.

Millie's weekend plans & stubborn heat continues

Millie and I will be helping emcee the Heartspring Pediatric Pedalfest this coming Saturday morning in Wichita. It's a fundraising event for children with special needs. Maybe you have a team together and are going to participate. Whether you are riding or just coming out to help, I think we will all be glad this is a morning event, considering the forecast with highs near 100.  If you'll be out there, please track us down and say hi.

As far as our weather is concerned, the forecast isn't going to change much through the upcoming weekend. All week, we've been getting these isolated afternoon and evening storms that briefly produce some hail and high winds, and then collapse. Almost all of them have been in western or northern Kansas, and that will likely be the case again today and tomorrow. The steering winds at 30,000 feet and higher are all basically pointed northeast and that drives most of the activity that develops into Nebraska and surrounding areas. There should be some organized areas of rain developing Friday evening in eastern Colorado and far northwest Kansas, but once again, with the way the upper winds are blowing, there is little chance any of that will make it to central or eastern Kansas. Even if it does, it won't be enough to even settle the dust.

Looking ahead to next week, we are still going to have some hot weather around Kansas. We had hoped a cold front coming through on Sunday would knock the temperatures down 10-15 degrees, but that is looking less likely now as the heat holds on. We will have to keep an eye on the second-half of next week for a storm system to emerge from the western US. It's just interesting so late in the summer season and all of sudden, we find ourselves in weather that we would normally expect in July. That's Kansas for ya.

35 days left of summer

Yes, I counted and there are only 35 days left of the summer season and then fall will be here. But you won't have to wait that long for the next cold front and change that will be coming in Kansas weather.

It's very interesting to me that just as the kids head back to school, this is when we finally hit our longest hot stretch here in Kansas with 90+ degrees expected through the rest of the week. So far, 9 consecutive days is the longest streak of 90 degree (or hotter) weather for Kansas. But we will likely pass that number late in the week as this large, high pressure system over Arkansas holds nearly stationary. Remember, around the high, the winds blow clockwise. So any storms that try and move our way the next 2 or 3 days will get shoved to the northeast and into Nebraska. I actually think there are some good chances for rain in eastern Colorado late in the week, but the upper level winds will carry them around Kansas.

Forecast for Tuesday - Saturday (Aug. 23)

The forecast rain amounts through Saturday evening clearly show the impact the high pressure will have on the central Plains, driving the majority of heavier rains around our state.

When will this change? A cold front is due into Kansas on Sunday, which will drop the temperatures and bring some chances for storms to the area. Next week shouldn't be as hot as this week is turning out to be. Stay cool!!

Weekend summary & storm wrap from last night

In typical August fashion, we are dealing with heat, humidity, wind, and storms, and some of them last night were pretty intense, especially across northern Kansas. Luckily we didn't have any 80+ mph winds like they had in Hastings, NE yesterday evening, but there were several measured winds between 60 and 70. Rainfall amounts from around the area include:
Plainville: 1.05"
Salina: 0.72"
Concordia: 0.66"
Hutch: 0.50"
Jabara Airport: 0.45"
Winfield: 0.41"
Wichita: 0.31"
Hill City: 0.20"
Newton: 0.18"
Smith Center: 0.16'

The lightning last night put on quite the show, and thanks to Dennis Thompson for sending in this wonderful lightning picture from near Wellington. Lightning is so incredible to watch, but it has such tremendous danger too and there's just no way to know where it will strike next. In an average year, there are more lightning fatalities than tornadoes. In 2014, 19 people have been killed by lightning alone, none of them in Kansas.

We will have to watch for spotty storms to pop up again this afternoon and into the evening hours. It shouldn't be widespread and the likelihood of severe storms will be on the lower end of the scale, but we shall see how the afternoon progress.

One thing that you will see during the middle of the week is more wind. We haven't had that many windy days as of late, but gusty winds will be kicking in by Wednesday and Thursday.

Millie and I had a wonderful time at a Big Brothers Big Sisters fundraiser in Newton Saturday evening. I was the emcee for the evening and Millie was the entertainment (mostly walking around and looking for any accidental food drops) She's just warming up her greeting skills for the Kansas State Fair, which begins in less than 3 weeks. Hard to believe.

Sun dog appears & rain chances return

Twin Lakes in Wichita Wednesday evening. From Jeff Templin

I didn't get to see it, but Jeff Templin sent us this picture of a sun dog over Wichita Wednesday evening. They are more common in colder times of the year because ice is more readily available, but when the ice crystals align themselves just right, the sun dogs appear. Sunlight is refracted by the ice in the clouds. (Click on the diagram to see more detailed information)

The weekend is getting closer and we are getting closer to our next potential storms in Kansas. The rainfall this summer seems to come right at the time we need it, and it's been keeping our ponds and lakes full, and the grass green.

Small storm system over northern Colorado

This next system that is drifting out of the Rockies is a very small, compact storm that isn't going to do a lot for us. It will help to produce a few storms across northwest Kansas Thursday evening, but the system is actually moving northeast into Nebraska and the Dakotas. So that should keep the widespread rains north of us. The chance for a few storms will spread into central and south central Kansas Friday evening, but once again, the likelihood of anything widespread is very, very slim.

Thursday evening chances are in the northwest

Friday evening chances will shift farther south and east

The storm system from the northern Plains will start moving southeast by Saturday and Sunday. There could be some heavier rains in northeast Kansas Saturday evening, but that's really the only area of the state where there will be rain. And although temperatures may drop a few degrees by Sunday or Monday, it's still looking pretty warm through the start of next week.

We probably won't see any big cool down next week (week of August 18), but I definitely think we will start seeing some bigger changes heading into the last full week of August. Details to come.

Rainfall comparison and late week warmup

Does it feel like we've had a lot of rain this year? It feels a little bit like that to me, but I think it's just because we are still coming out of serious drought from the last 3 or 4 years, and now that we are getting normal rains again, it just feels like we are a lot wetter than normal. 

Central and eastern Kansas had received more rain to date last year than this year

Western Kansas has experienced a big increase in rainfall this year compared to 2013

The numbers I put together last night were a little bit of a surprise. Central and eastern Kansas haven't had quite as much rain this year as we did last year at this point in the year. But that's not the same story in the west. The number that was most surprising was Garden City where they have more than doubled the rainfall for this year compared to last. Some of the big rains in June put them on the right track to have above normal moisture, and it's paying off now just looking around and seeing all of the green vegetation. If you haven't driven across western Kansas this year, it's amazing how much better things look compared to recent years. The grass is green, the corn looks pretty amazing, and in some cases, you find standing water. It's a very welcome change for farmers and ranchers who have had to sell off cattle because there just wasn't enough water to keep them around. 

The weather will slowly get warmer heading into the second half of the week. The humidity will start creeping up Thursday and Friday. We are still forecasting some storms by Friday and Saturday, but right now, it looks like it will be the scattered variety rather than anything widespread. Details to come on the blog tomorrow. Enjoy the nice weather. 

Meteors, hurricanes, and back-to-school forecast

Our second full week of August means back to school for some students. The first day seems to get earlier and earlier every year. The weather looks very quiet this week and at least for the next few days, cooler than normal for August. Our average high is 91/92 degrees, but much of the state will only be in the 80s through Wednesday. And what may be the best news of all is that the humidity will be down too. Lower humidity also means little if any rainfall for Kansas as well.

There is a meteor shower taking place the next few nights. It's the annual Perseids meteor shower and even though the skies will be clear for much of the state, the bright moonlight will wash out most of the falling stars. But if you want to give it a try, Tuesday night is considered peak viewing, so head out and start looking just as soon as you can after dusk. The moon will be coming up just shortly after that, and the viewing will be less than ideal.

We received an updated hurricane forecast from NOAA last week. Good news is that the rest of the hurricane season is expected to be slower than normal. There is a 70% chance that the rest of the season will see below normal activity, and that's due to cooler than normal water in the Tropical Atlantic. Remember, hurricanes get their energy from warm water (usually 80 degrees or warmer) and if that ingredient is missing, you don't have tropical formation. There is also stronger wind aloft over the Atlantic, and when that happens, it has a tendency to tear the storms apart. We still haven't reached the peak of the season just yet, as that doesn't come until early September. Have a great day!

Rainfall amounts from 8-9 through 8-10

Here are some rainfall amounts from the around the state:
Concordia: 1.27"
Newton: 1.08"
Emporia: 1.03"
Jabara Airport: 1.02"
Great Bend: 1.01"
Salina: 0.87"
Dodge City: 0.83"
Goodland: 0.73"
Medicine Lodge: 0.73"
Winfield: 0.66'
Wichita: 0.53"
Hays: 0.31"
Pratt: 0.30"
Russell: 0.26"
Garden City: 0.08"
Hutch: 0.06"

Hawaii storms and Kansas gets ready for more changes

We've been talking about the Hawaiian storms this week and finally, Iselle is making landfall today. Yesterday evening (Thursday), Julio increased in strength to a category 3 storm, but is expected to pass north of the Hawaiian islands. There will probably be some significant wave action for the islands, but it's unlikely there will be a direct hit. You can compare both of the forecast tracks over the next several days. Hawaii hasn't taken a direct hit in over 20 years. Amazing!! You can click on any image to make it larger.

24 hour rainfall totals from Kansas show:
Dodge City: 0.89"
Garden City: 0.59"
Great Bend: 0.55"
Pratt: 0.51"
Hill City: 0.46"
Russell: 0.45"
Medicine Lodge: 0.39"
Wichita: 0.33"
Liberal: 0.32"
Goodland: 0.21"
Jabara Airport: 0.01"
Salina: 0.01"

Storms will impact the area heading into Saturday night

Timing out the weekend rainfall is a challenge. I actually think the rest of Friday afternoon (today) will be dry, but we should see a few more storms Friday night, and what will likely be the best chance for rain over the weekend will be coming our way Saturday night. Storms from Nebraska will try to push south into Kansas and that will provide us with another opportunity for much needed moisture. Several areas had a drier than normal July, and Salina is close to 5 inches below normal for the year once again. We need the rain!

Pattern setup for next week. More cool air coming south

Next week, the weather changes again. We've got more cool air that will be coming south from Canada and the northern Plains. Our high temperatures will likely be in the low to mid 80s for much of the week. Monday and Tuesday look dry, but watch for widespread rain and storms to enter the picture once again by Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday storm chances will likely be the nighttime variety with Thursday bringing some off and on chances for rain and storms. But it definitely looks like cooler than average temperatures will be with us heading into the middle of August.

Sunsets, rain totals, and another round coming

Doppler estimated totals from storms Wednesday night

In typical Kansas rainfall fashion, most of you didn't get any rain at all, some had a little, and others had rainfall coming down at over 4 inches per hour. While covering the severe storms in Wichita Wednesday night, our measuring equipment at the station had a rainfall rate of over 4 inches per hour that lasted for just a few minutes. The wind was also a bit crazy with McConnell AFB recording a wind gust to 71 mph. There were some reports of tree damage around Douglass and near Augusta in Butler county.

Rainfall totals ending at 7 a.m. Thursday:
3 NW Emporia: 3.15"
Topeka: 2.01"
Jabara Airport: 0.94"
Wichita: 0.89"
Winfield: 0.89"
Newton: 0.47"
Hill City: 0.25"
Hutch: 0.12"
Great Bend: 0.08"
Russell: 0.07"
Salina: Trace

Thursday evening storms will form in the west and move east

After midnight (early Friday morning), storms will be rolling into central Kansas

The focus for storms was basically east Wednesday night, but for tonight, the focus will shift back to the west. The next round is forecast to develop this evening in western Kansas and eastern Colorado. It should move east/southeast heading into the night. Some strong wind will be possible, but we are not forecasting widespread severe storms.

I shared some sunset pictures Wednesday night on the air, but a few more came in later in the night. The developing storms Wednesday evening helped create a dramatic sunset for those in central and south central Kansas. Some of the best color I've seen in a little while.

Beautiful sunset Wednesday evening. Picture from Kerra Whitaker

Kelly Nachtigal - Newton