Busy weekend - much needed moisture headed to Kansas

Good Friday morning. We've made it to the weekend and plenty of things going on with the Sunflower Showdown Saturday in Lawrence. Girl Scout cookies are going on sale. And then there is the Super Bowl on Sunday (almost like a holiday weekend if you are a huge NFL fan)

A storm system that has been generating some rainfall across Arizona the last couple of days is finally starting to move. The moisture will be pushing northeast into Kansas Friday night and Saturday. The overall setup with the weekend storm is going to favor more rain than snow.  Temperatures will be borderline cold enough for snow. So there is a chance some snowflakes may mix with the rain from time to time, but many of our streets and highways will just be wet and not icy and snowpacked. 

The good news is that there is a chance we could see some .50 inch rain amounts for much of central and eastern Kansas. The amounts will drop off farther west, and many areas in western Kansas will likely end up with .25 or less.

Snowfall amounts will be minimal. You can see one computer model is showing accumulations will likely be under 1 inch, however, some areas in far northeast Kansas will have a chance for some 1-3 inch amounts by early Sunday. It's going to be a tad windy and so much cooler by the end of the weekend. Should be the perfect weather for staying indoors and catching some of the Super Bowl... game or commercials.

Next week.... there is a good chance we will see some 60 degree weather by Tuesday and Wednesday!! So spring weather isn't completely gone just yet, but within the next 5-10 days, we will likely see the much colder air pushing back toward Kansas. Details to come!

Crazy January warmth - changes coming with a storm

It's one thing to see 70 degree temperatures in January, but to see 80s Tuesday afternoon was definitely a surprise. It is some of the earliest 80 degree weather ever for Kansas, and almost a dozen record highs were set.

A cold front will move through Wednesday evening and we are finally going to get back to near normal for the rest of the week. Normal highs are in the mid 40s and we will be moving closer to that in the coming days. It's not necessarily bitter cold though. Look at the temperatures back across the northern Plains and up into southern Canada. Readings are in the 30s and 40s. So we will cool down for the end of the week and into the weekend, but it's not the Arctic air that we had earlier this month. 

Saturday storm on the way to Kansas

The weekend storm that is on the way looks to spread a rain/snow mix around Kansas. It will likely start out as a wintry mix late Friday night, and then change to some light rain Saturday afternoon. Once the colder air gets involved Saturday night, we will see a changeover to all snow. Accumulations between 1-3 inches look possible across much of central and northern Kansas heading into Saturday night. Not a major storm, but travel could be compromised for several hours into Sunday morning. It's been awhile since we've had snow, but it's still winter and after all of the 70s, this will be quite a change for us.

Blizzard east - record warmth - and preparing for severe weather

All of the attention will be focused on the Northeast today where the big blizzard continues to keep people home and off the streets. I know major storms like that require some of us to work harder, but if someone mandated that you stay home for a day or two and miss work or school, some of us would be okay with that.

We are no strangers to blizzards around here, but we are about as far away from one as you can get with today's weather. More 70s coming up in the afternoon will mean more record breaking warmth across much of Kansas and the central Plains. I would expect close to a dozen record highs will be set in Kansas alone (we are 30 degrees above average)

These are the current record highs that will likely go down the next couple of days

A weekend storm is still expected to move toward Kansas by Friday. This doesn't look to be a major storm, but there is a good chance we will see both rain and snow in our state coming up Saturday and lingering into Sunday. Right now, it looks like the moisture could start as snow, then mix with some rain, and eventually, change back over to all snow Saturday evening. We are still too far out to say where exactly the rain/snow line will set up, but snow accumulation is very possible heading into Saturday night.

Arriving Saturday!!

While the weather is somewhat quiet for now and spring is still two months away, preparation is already underway for the upcoming storm season. Warning the public of threatening weather is definitely a team effort. From the meteorologists to the emergency managers, everyone has to be on the same page and working together in order to keep people safe during times of life threatening weather. On Monday, our group of National Weather Service meteorologists (from as far away as Hastings, NE), broadcasters, and emergency managers met in Lyons to discuss the warning process. We know the methods we use now are good, but how can we improve? As technology changes, how should we adapt to make our communication more effective with the people we serve? Being prepared is the key, and anybody living in Kansas should feel good knowing that all of us involved in warning the public of dangerous weather, continue to look for ways to improve. It's a very fascinating process.

Integrated Warning Team meeting in Lyons on Monday

Record watch - for winter and for warmth

About the only way New Yorkers will be able to get around after Tuesday

We definitely know where winter has gone. The Northeast is going to get hit hard with snow, wind, and bitter cold. It's amazing to think about millions and millions of people who have very busy schedules (like the rest of us) stuck at home because of 2-3 feet of snow. The biggest city in the USA is going to get over 30 inches, and with wind gusts of 30-40 mph... what a mess. All modes of transportation will be very difficult. We've been hearing that this could be one of the worst storms to hit NYC... let's see how it plays out and where it ends up in the record books. The biggest snow event for NYC is 26.9" back in February of 2006.

Heaviest snow expected around the major coastal cities

We could be rewriting record books around here for a completely different reason. If the 60s and 70s from last week didn't put you in the mood for spring, the next couple of days might. Anytime you see the temperature get 25-30 degree warmer than normal, you have to check the history books. Turns out, getting into the low 70s on Tuesday will be historic for most of the state. We won't hear too many complaints about it, but we sure could use some rain (or moisture of any kind) and that's not likely to happen through Thursday or Friday.

Planning ahead... after Wednesday, much cooler air will push south across the Plains. So expect a return to reality by Thursday and Friday. Probably a good thing because we don't want our trees and flowers getting ahead of themselves. There's still plenty of winter to go yet.

Finally Friday & spring has sprung

Did you see Mars and Venus last evening? The sky was crystal clear and the crescent moon was putting on quite a show. You'll still be able to see both tonight after sunset. Venus is the bright star and Mars will be much smaller (but still very visible) below the moon. There may be some high clouds coming through at sunset, but worth taking a second look to see if you can find them.

We made it to Friday! I'm getting so much positive feedback on this mild forecast that is coming up for Kansas. The calendar (and perhaps the grass and trees) will be your only reminder of what time of year it really is. Normal high is 43/44 for the end of January, but instead, we will be 20 degrees warmer than that heading into Sunday.

When will we pay for this warm weather? It's still a little ways off. Remember back in December, we were mild all the way through Christmas Day, and then it suddenly turned cold. So that mild trend lasted just over 3 weeks, and we are only into our 2nd week now. I would expect at least another week before we start worrying about the next surge of cold air.
Have a great weekend. Enjoy the mild weather!

Unbelievable stats & big changes soon

Amarillo just had over a foot of snow with the big storm passing south of Kansas. Schools are closed and the city has a real mess on their hands right now. Semis were having trouble making it up elevated roads and bridges.

Amarillo snow - from Wednesday night & early Thursday

Check this out: Amarillo just picked up more snow with this latest storm than St. Louis and Boston have had all season combined (Boston has received 2.9" with St. Louis receiving .5")

Other snowfall amounts:
2 SE Amarillo - 13"
7 NE Amarillo - 12"
1 NW Canyon - 11.5"
Texline - 9"

It just takes one storm that has unlimited access to the Gulf of Mexico and this time of year, it can be a really big mess.

Temperatures trending up!

We are still on track for a big warm up into the weekend and it will continue into the final days of January. Today (Thursday) will be coolest day that we will have in the next 7. Highs in the low 40 this afternoon. But we are definitely headed into the 50s and 60s by Saturday.

Next week should be getting even warmer. There is a good chance we just might see 70s again as early as Tuesday, but more likely Wednesday or Thursday. Might be a little spring fever in the air again.

Close call for a storm - mild weather continues

Have you been enjoying this last week of weather? Incredible to see the 70s around here earlier in the week and I would venture to say we will see those again before the cold of winter returns to Kansas.

Traffic camera from New Mexico near Capulin

Brunt of the storm will slide southwest of Kansas

We are SO close to having a winter storm today. And while we are forecasting some snow in southwest Kansas, it's not going to be the heavy accumulations that southern Colorado and northern New Mexico will be seeing. Already this Wednesday morning, roads are getting snowpacked and icy and difficult to maneuver. Forecast models show up to a foot (maybe even more) of snow could fall by Wednesday night.

Southwest Kansas should see a few inches, especially around Elkhart and Liberal, but it's highly unlikely any of it will spread farther east or north. The track of this system continues to be south and that will keep most of the slick road conditions just outside of our area. But traveling southwest of Kansas could be tricky later this evening and tonight.

A huge buildup in the warm air is expected from Kansas west to begin the week

If you want the warmer weather back, you'll get your wish this weekend AND next week. And based on the way this winter pattern is repeating, I would expect this mild weather to last another few weeks before we have any chances of Arctic air returning. Just like highs in the 70s in July provide a nice break from the summer heat, 60s in January provide a nice relief from the winter blues. Makes you a little antsy for spring, doesn't it?

Car wash weather coming!

If your vehicle looks anything like mine, it needs a good scrub down to get the 3 layers of salt and grime off the side. Maybe you have Christmas decorations that need to come down too. We just haven't had any warm weather recently to do such things, but that is all about to change. For the last two weeks, we've watched cold front after cold front drop through the area and deliver Arctic air to the eastern two-thirds of the US.

We haven't had any 50 degree weather since Christmas Day.

But as the pattern changes, it is safe to say we are going to have several 50 degree days coming at the end of the week and right into the start of next week. I'm always amazed at how different 50 degree weather feels after several days of 20s and 30s. Might feel like early spring, but we know there's still more winter to come yet.

Main storm track shifts north for several days

The forecast models are indicating the possibility of a storm during the second half of next week. It's too early to say exactly what may be coming with it, but definitely one to watch as time gets closer.

Good news on a Monday morning!!!

We've been on a rather lengthy stretch of colder than normal weather, but it's all about to change. Before we get to the warmer weather, we have a couple of chilly days and a chance for some light snow coming our way. No need to worry though, it's nothing major AND it's not coming with any Arctic air.

Over the last few weeks, its been one cold front after another that keeps dropping the temperature and we haven't seen any 50s since Christmas Day! Our normal high temperatures are on their way up, but it's a slow climb. By the end of January, the normal high is still only 44.

A fast moving, weak storm system will cross the area Tuesday night-Wednesday. Limited moisture and strength of the storm will keep the chances of accumulating snow VERY low, but don't be surprised to see a few flurries or light snow come Wednesday morning.

Milder, Pacific air will spread over the Rockies and into Kansas by the end of the week

After Wednesday, we might need a "long line at the car wash alert" because we could be close to 50 by Thursday and definitely into the 50s we go for Friday. It's amazing to see how the pattern is cycling and the warmer than normal temperatures we had for most of December are coming back. So the second half of January is likely to be milder than normal (generally speaking) with any chances of moisture likely to be in the form of rain.

Cold everywhere, but there's good news!!!

Just adding a sunny beach to help warm  you up on this cold morning!

We've made it to Thursday and when I look at the forecast, I see just one more true shot of some Arctic air before we can start looking ahead to a milder trend. That cold air will be here tomorrow (Friday)

Much of the country in the deep freeze

First, look at how much of the country is under some type of wind chill warning or advisory. Basically, it's the eastern 1/2 of the country as this latest surge of cold air goes all the way into the deep South. Get this... a wind chill advisory in Florida is issued when the wind chills drop below 35 degrees. It is very common for this sort of thing to happen in January when the jet stream is reaching it's peak strength. We will be in for another cold day on Friday with highs near 20, but then moving forward, it's not going to be as cold heading into next week.

The wind chill has been a big deal as of late. Several areas dropping to -10 or colder. How is the wind chill calculated? It's ugly, so if you don't like math, turn away now.
New Wind Chill T(wc) = 35.74 + 0.6215T - 35.75(V^0.16) + 0.4275T(V^0.16)

You probably don't have too much to worry about until wind chills start getting down to -15 or colder. At that point, frostbite can happen in 30 minutes or less. That's when advisories usually start coming out and we consider it dangerous.

But here is the good news. The pattern is looking to change in about a week.

Forecast temperatures for next Friday, January 16

Some of you have emailed me or asked on Facebook about cold weather and the longer range outlook. And I said the second half of January will likely start to warm back up. Here is the first sign. Next Thursday and into Friday especially, the bitter cold has retreated to the north and we could get back into the 40s and 50s heading into the weekend. The last 50 degree day was back on Christmas, and since then, we've been stuck in the colder pattern that we saw back in November. So hang in there. We have light at the end of the tunnel if you are not a cold weather fan.

Cold, Cold, and more Cold!!

Well, ready or not, just six days into the new year and already another Arctic blast is coming down through the Dakotas and headed into Kansas later Tuesday night. It's becoming a game as to how many times we will say "Arctic", but that's where all of this bitterly cold air is coming from.

Take a look at where the high temperatures will be this afternoon and then compare that to Wednesday. Look at the upper Midwest across Chicago and parts of Iowa. Some places will be looking at highs of -5 to -10 (before the wind chill gets factored in)

Of course, it just wouldn't be Kansas without some wind, so dangerous wind chills are expected tomorrow and then again Thursday. Although very uncomfortable, wind chills between 0 to -10 aren't necessarily dangerous unless you were exposed to those kinds of numbers for several hours. Frostbite can happen within about 30 minutes when wind chills get down to around -15, and it's possible we could see some of those numbers early Thursday. 

I continue to be very impressed with the photos that we get into the Storm Center. Most nights (when time allows) you'll see me show some pictures at the end of the weathercast. They are pictures that help tell the weather story for the day, or maybe it's just to bring some positive news back to the evening newscast. Either way, we like to see what you see in the Kansas sky (or on the ground). Here are some pictures that came in Monday from Mickey Shannon of the weekend snow storm. Just amazing. Have a good day.

All pictures courtesy of Mickey Shannon

Snow checkup & more cold coming

Have you had enough snow and cold yet? We are officially just 2 weeks into winter, but if you don't like the cold, think of it this way. Meteorologists consider March 1st to be the beginning of spring, which would mean in just a few weeks, we will reach the halfway point of winter. Doesn't sound too bad, right? And I would expect in another few weeks, we will find ourselves getting back into the 30s and 40s (maybe even some 50s) as the pattern continues to change.

This week, we are watching some very cold air slipping south from Canada (once again) and it will arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday. Much of the country will be talking about the bitter temperatures. Last week, the upper level winds were coming in from the southwest, but this week, the wind direction is northwest, and as I've mentioned before, that's a dry pattern for us in Kansas. Gulf moisture gets pushed east and any precipitation that falls 9 times out of 10 is very light. It doesn't appear that we will have any big storm systems pulling through our area this week, so the main focus will be on temperatures.

Today: Rather chilly with gusty winds and highs 20s/30s

Tuesday: Little colder with mainly 20s for highs - less wind

Wednesday: An early a.m. snow flurry, otherwise sun for the afternoon and highs in the teens

Snow since November 1st of 2014

Wichita is already above normal on snowfall for the entire month of January. At this point in the season, much of the state has picked up between 9 and 11 inches of snow (some with more and others with less) I don't see us adding to those totals this week. Although cold enough, moisture will be rather limited. 

Have a great week!

First storm of 2015

Happy New Year! Ready or not, the year kicks off with a winter storm that will bring some ice and snow to Kansas moving into the weekend. Travel could be slow going, especially Saturday morning and into the afternoon. We are forecasting some ice accumulations for south central and southeast Kansas, but this does not look to be a major icing event for the area.

Freezing drizzle and freezing rain will develop early Saturday

The best chances of ice will begin after midnight Friday night and continue through about 8 or 9 a.m. Saturday. At this time, it looks like .10" of ice accumulation may cover Wichita and southeast Kansas, with areas to the west and north having better chances for some snow.

As I've mentioned before, forecasting snow is quite a challenge and depicting where the heaviest moisture goes has a lot to do with the track of the storm. This low pressure will be going through a weakening phase as it kicks out across the Plains, but still strong enough to bring this wintry weather to our area. I would expect the best chance for the heaviest snow will fall southeast of a line from Elkhart, to Dodge City, to Russell, to Concordia, which means northwest Kansas won't see very much at all (less than 2 inches). And because Wichita is expected to get some ice to start, that will cut into our snowfall accumulations around the metro area. Right now, we are just thinking an inch or two for the city.

Even after the snow completely comes to an end around midnight Saturday night, the wind will cause some blowing snow and potential for some reduced visibility (at least for awhile). Wind and bitter wind chills are likely for Sunday morning and into the afternoon before the wind backs down late in the day.

So all of this means... it might be a good weekend for staying home. The moisture will be nice, but it will certainly complicate things for those wanting to get somewhere Saturday. Stay safe out there.