Special Report: The Height of Technology - Sunday

There are a number of sensors on board and a mini computer chip for navigation

I've been working on a special report that will air this Sunday on KWCH 12 at 10 p.m. I recently traveled to Norman, OK to the National Weather Center to interview a professor who wants to utilize unmanned airplanes to sample atmospheric conditions. They have already had some test flights and collected data, but there are so many restrictions by the FAA because of the potential danger to air traffic. You might find it hard to believe, but the lowest mile of the atmosphere is one of the hardest to measure. There are an enormous number of obstacles we have to work around and the contamination of the atmosphere from human activity can skew the data. So researchers are trying to think outside of the box to find new ways to study what's above us AND the environment around thunderstorms. Nearly all researchers will tell you that the more we learn together as a scientific community about tornadoes, the better our forecasts will be. We can only expect tornado forecasts to improve down the road. Watch the rest of my special report Sunday at 10 p.m. on KWCH12.

Controller for the unmanned aircraft

The aircraft is made of a high impact type Styrofoam - making it very lightweight  

Identifying certain cloud features - what do they mean

Welcome to Monday and the start of a much calmer week ahead for us in Kansas. There won't be any severe storms around here through Friday. So we get a chance to catch our breath and maybe catch up on some sleep if storms have kept you up late at night. 

I'm showing some storm pictures we received last week from viewers, and they are much appreciated. Storm cloud features can be confusing and sometimes the names we give to the clouds don't always make sense. So I thought I would showcase a few features here that may help you next time identify what's coming your way. They can be so interesting to watch, but of course, very dangerous too. 

This is a shelf cloud. It extends across the horizon and as it approaches, you will usually get hit with very strong winds. Sometimes the winds can be 50 mph, while other shelf clouds may produce winds up to 90 or 100 mph. Picture courtesy of: Stephanie Page - Rice co.

I've highlighted the rotational features to this thunderstorm. It's not a wall cloud, just a rotating thunderstorm and because there is so much spin to it, the lower hanging clouds exhibit a circular pattern. The arrows are drawn clockwise, but the storm is spinning counterclockwise. This is the bottom of a supercell storm - ones that produce hail and sometimes tornadoes. Picture courtesy of: Walter Savage - Ellsworth

This storm would be moving to the right. The rain free area is what storm chasers and spotters zero in on to watch for tornado formation. That is underneath of the updraft part of the storm where tornadoes usually develop. Picture courtesy of: Lenora Henderson - Ellsworth co.

This picture from near Scott City. There are 3 different tornadoes occurring at one time. They appear to be more landspout type tornadoes (where they don't necessarily form from supercell storms) They can be dangerous and still tear things up, but normally they don't last very long. Picture courtesy of: Eric Hoeme 

Severe storms expected today

Just a quick update to our thinking for this afternoon.

- storms should fire up around 2 or 3 p.m. today in central and some of western Kansas.
- storms will move northeast at close to 40 mph.
- highest chance for seeing a few tornadoes will be in central and northern Kansas between 4-6 p.m.
- some hail and wind is possible with storms developing south into south central Kansas at around 5 or 6 p.m. this evening
- severe threat should trail off close to 11 p.m. or midnight as the storms move through KC and into Missouri and Iowa

Everything calms down for Saturday, and even Sunday looks relatively calm at this point. Have a safe weekend and stick with us throughout the afternoon to see how things change.

Coming soon - next round of severe storms

Our rounds of severe storms have been showing up about every 5 or 6 days and that's about to happen again with the next storm system coming in from the southwest. It's a complicated setup, as is the case with many severe weather events that we have to forecast. Let's look at what will likely happen for Thursday and Friday.

Thursday: Mainly cloudy or mostly cloudy. Some drizzle is possible for western Kansas at the beginning of the day. The lack of sunshine for most of the area will result in temperatures that struggle to warm into the lower 60s during the afternoon.

Thursday night: Some thunderstorms will develop or move into western Kansas. It's unlikely these storms will be severe because of the very cool temperatures we are forecasting. Any showers or storms will move east/northeast.

Friday: Cloudy in the morning with light rain or some drizzle, especially farther east. Main storm system and dry line (green dashed line) will be running into the some higher humidity. Severe storms may not develop until after 3 or 4 p.m. and once they do, they will have a tendency to move east/northeast.

Questions we have now:
1. Do the low clouds and early a.m. rain impact the severe potential late in the day
2. Will the sun poke through at all before noon
3. Where does the dry line setup heading into the afternoon/evening

Some of the details will get worked out in the computer models today, while others won't be known until Friday morning. This doesn't look like an outbreak of severe storms, but some rough weather is likely east of I-135 before we get to the weekend. Let's hope we get some more rain in places that still desperately need it.

Severe potential rest of the week

Any severe weather Wednesday will be south

We are looking at more active weather for Kansas during the remainder of the week. Of course, active weather can mean anything from rain showers to tornadoes this time of the year.

Forecast rain for Wednesday evening/early Thursday

Our first chance for rain is coming Wednesday and it definitely looks like the target for rainfall will be along a line from Dodge City to Wichita and areas to the south. The rainfall will be somewhat limited because this is not a big system that we are dealing with and much of what we will see on radar will be scattered.

A much stronger system will be pushing toward Kansas by the end of the week. On Friday, a storm system will emerge from the 4 Corners area and bring widespread storms to the central and southern Plains. We are still 4 days away, so some of the finer details aren't known just yet, but one of the features we are looking at is the orientation of the system. Without going into great detail, a storm that kicks out into the Plains that is positively tilted usually leads to fewer severe storms. But one that shows more of a negative tilt can be a problem. Our computer models have differing ideas on what will happen, so stay tuned as we go through the rest of the week. We will hope for more rain without hail and wind, but this time of the year we usually get some of both (or tornadoes)

Rain ends, but not for too long

Courtesy Joe Montiel - Saturday evening as the storms approached

The weekend comes and goes, and so does the latest round of rainfall. Some of you are very pleased with what you discovered in your rain gauge, while many others are saying "that's all?" Here is where we stand with different reporting stations around the state. Wiping out drought will take time, but over the last week, we've made a dent in many areas. More moisture is needed to fill farm ponds and streams. This is our wet time of the year, so lets hope it keeps coming.

It looks like a front will drop in from Nebraska late Tuesday afternoon, and that should stir up some more clouds for the afternoon (maybe a few sprinkles in the far east).

The chances for rain will once again increase for Wednesday, but the focus will be over southern Kansas. It doesn't look like a severe weather setup for Kansas, but there might be some hail or wind down into Oklahoma.

If you didn't get the rain you were hoping for last week or over the weekend, we can look ahead to Friday to find the best chance for moisture this week. Another storm will approach from the 4 Corners area by Friday which will increase our storm chances. It doesn't look like a big severe weather setup, but can never be ruled out when you are right in the middle of severe weather season.

Severe weather threat today - rain finally arrives

Severe threat this afternoon... Enhanced risk for southwest KS

The storm system is finally here, bringing a chance for wind and hail to western Kansas this afternoon. Once storms develop, they will move east/northeast. This big storm system will definitely test our patience. The total rainfall we are forecasting should come in different rounds, so please don't expect to get all of the rain in the first shower that passes your location. This continues to look like a slow moving storm and should bring at least two if not three different rounds of moisture to the area. Just like spokes go around a wheel, there will be these spokes of energy that go around the huge storm that is coming from the west. And with each one that passes, we will get another chance for some rain.

Rainfall from 1 p.m. Thursday to 7 p.m. Sunday

1. Most of the rain Thursday afternoon will be focused in western Kansas. 
2. Chances will move east late Thursday night and Friday.
3. Dry air coming into western Kansas Friday will bring a temporary end to the rain and allow the sun to shine for awhile.
4. The next round should come into the area heading into Saturday. 
5. A few lingering showers are possible Sunday

This won't be a drought buster, but we have to start somewhere. Fortunately, we will have other chances for moisture coming in the middle of next week. It's too early to figure out how much we'd get, but it's probably not going to be heavy like what we expect to see the next few days.

courtesy Rechelle Ochsner - south of Tribune

Just a couple of hail and wind producing storms Wednesday evening in northwest Kansas. We did get a picture of what looks like a brief tornado south of Tribune. The picture was taken at such a distance that it's hard to tell exactly what was happening, but we think it could have been a brief landspout (a type of tornado that is not associated with the typical supercell storm)

Too much for some... not enough for others

Texas is seeing some significant flooding. Areas around Forth Worth have streets that are now rivers. The rain chances should begin to wind down there later today. More than 11 inches of moisture has been recorded since the beginning of the year in the Dallas/Fort Worth area.

It's been awhile since we've posted drought maps and discussed how things have changed in recent weeks and months. If you had rain over the weekend, consider yourself lucky because many areas missed out. We've been through the drought breaking process before and as many of you know, it just takes time. So the weekend rains are helpful (if you had it), but every area of the state could use a bunch more.

Drought one year ago

Drought today

We are still advertising a slow moving, big storm system coming from the west. The biggest question is not whether or not we will get rain, but rather, where will the heaviest be. The computer models continue to shift it around from west to east, but I'm waiting to see what the next round of data shows. I am fairly confident that most of the state will get rain, but these slow moving lows are sometimes tricky when it comes to pinning down the rainfall amounts. 

Weekend rainfall amounts & a preview of what's to come

Smith county rope tornado - courtesy Virgil Christmann

Storms Sunday evening produced at least one very brief tornado in eastern Smith county. It didn't last more than a minute, and there are some questions as to whether or not it even touched down. This new week will hopefully be a productive one for rainfall in Kansas. We've been missed by so many storms lately and now, the setup is looking better and better for much of the state to get soaking moisture.

First, let's go over what happens for the start of the week. We had some spotty severe storms Sunday evening, but the rain will stay in Oklahoma for Monday afternoon and most of Tuesday. There is a weakening low pressure that will come right over Wichita Tuesday, and it could stir up a few showers. Won't be anything more than that and the amounts will likely end up under .10"

So the main focus throughout the week will be on the one coming in for the middle and end of the week. All of the forecast models we study suggest it will slow down and produce a couple of days (at least) of some much needed, perhaps widespread rainfall. It's unclear whether there will be severe storms, but Thursday and Friday have at least chances for some hail and wind. It will be something to analyze as time draws closer. I'm posting the forecast rainfall, but don't focus on the numbers too much. Things will change in the next few days, but it offers up some hope as to what could be on the horizon in just about 4 days. It wouldn't end the drought, but sure would put us in better condition.

Weekend Rainfall Amounts:
Wichita: 1.33"
Hutch: 1.07"
Jabara Airport: 1.02"
Andover: 0.89"
Medicine Lodge: 0.80"
Dodge City: 0.44"
Garden City: 0.18"
Salina: 0.18"

Storms move out - quiet now for a few days

Courtesy Brian Bergkamp - near Medicine Lodge

Courtesy Douglas Buck - near Colwich

Thanks for being patient with us last night as we tracked the storms across Kansas. We ended up with just under a dozen tornado reports from southwest into south central Kansas. Basically, the evening unfolded like we thought it would. The only thing that was a little surprising was to see how far west some of the storms developed. The good news is that there wasn't much damage around the area, but the bad news, we also didn't get a lot of rain. The storms were just isolated enough that the heavier downpours were fairly spotty. 

The severe weather moves east for Thursday and Friday. Our weather in Kansas will settle down now for a few days. Chances for storms will increase once again over the weekend. Severe threat looks very low on Saturday, but should increase some on Sunday. Main threat with bigger storms Sunday looks to be some hail and gusty winds. We will be watching it of course. Have a great day.

Severe threat today (4-8-15)

Welcome to Wednesday and our next round of storms is expected at the end of the afternoon. I don't expect this to be an outbreak of severe weather in Kansas, but confidence is pretty high there will be hail and wind producing storms developing before the day is over. Sometimes, the forecast is very clear cut and it's easy for us to determine what will happen. In this case today, it's not a slam dunk on exactly what will happen, but as you would expect, we have a better idea than just a few days ago. So here's what I'm looking for today:

1. Morning clouds should break for some sunshine across southern Kansas. 

2. Temperatures warm to around 80 for southern Kansas (much cooler farther north)

3. Spotty storms should begin to develop south of Wichita after 4 or 5 p.m. and move to the northeast

4. Heaviest of the hail and wind producing storms should impact areas just south and east of Wichita. A few tornadoes are possible

5. Severe threat should end just before midnight

Bottom line is that you should be prepared for severe weather, but don't let it drive you crazy. Best thing you can do is stay weather aware and make sure to have a way of getting reliable weather information if you are in the threat area. 

Wednesday severe threat continues

We continue to look at the possibility of severe weather on Wednesday. One of the downsides of social media is that while scrolling through your news feed, you are going to see all kinds of predictions. Some of them will probably scare the heck out of you. Be sure to check the source of any weather information that you consume. I've tried to highlight where I think the highest chance will be for hail, high winds, and tornadoes in the graphic below (click it for a larger image)

There could be a few isolated storms Tuesday night southeast of the Kansas Turnpike, and while a few could produce some hail and wind, the heavier storms will come Wednesday afternoon.

What kinds of things are we looking for in the setup Wednesday?
1) Where is the highest humidity (dew points)
2) How strong are the winds near the ground and higher up?
3) Where is the stationary front?
4) How warm will the temperatures be?

Highest humidity will likely be along and east of I-135

The list could go even longer, but for the sake of keeping this somewhat brief, we will stop there. So many factors to consider and that's what we will be looking at today and again Wednesday. Anyone east of I-135 will be in the cross hairs and once storms develop, they should move northeast. 

Beyond our severe threat Wednesday, another healthy storm system will push in from the west over the weekend. While it's unclear on the magnitude of severe weather and location, there is a pretty good signal from the computer models that we will have some solid chances for rain and storms beginning west Saturday and spreading east by Sunday. We need the rain and this weekend could be some of our best chances statewide that we've had in a LONG time.

More severe weather chances

Courtesy Jerry Dieckman - Webb Road

Hope everyone had a nice Easter weekend. If you had some limbs to clean up after last weeks storms, you weren't alone. I had some small branches and trash to clean up after the strong winds ripped through my area, but it wasn't anything major.

We are focused on more stormy weather in the week ahead. I've highlighted an area (on the FutureTrack graphic) that could see a few storms Tuesday night. Some hail and wind appear possible with those storms, but the main attention is centered on a big low pressure system in the west. Once it finally begins to move east, it's going to encounter some rich moisture moving up through the central Plains. I mentioned this in a blog entry last week, but forecasting severe weather is not an easy task. So many things have to come together at the right time, and if even one of them is off or missing, it changes the outlook. I expect a front will stretch across Kansas and into Missouri on Wednesday. This should provide some focus for storms to pop up in central and eastern Kansas, and the timing looks to be late afternoon and evening (about what you'd expect this time of year) All modes of severe weather look possible, including a few isolated tornadoes.

By Thursday and Friday, the weather should settle down considerably!!

Did you catch the quick lunar eclipse Saturday morning? Joe Montiel sent in a few pictures if you missed it. It was commonly known as the "blood moon"... for the deep red color it had for about 5 minutes. Mark your calendars because there is another one coming up on September 27/28 this year. It will be a total lunar eclipse and the entire thing should be visible around here... unless it's cloudy of course.

Hail possible today - and a refresher on how we measure it & the storm

Hail is a common threat with thunderstorms in Kansas. We've all seen it and know how destructive it can be. One of my Facebook visitors wanted me to post a reminder on how we estimate hail size. So this is a rundown of what we typically use in the Storm Team 12 office (and it's pretty common throughout the National Weather Service too)

Penny - .75"

Nickel - .88"

Quarter - 1"

Half-dollar - 1.25"

Ping Pong - 1.5"

Golf Ball - 1.75"

Hen Egg - 2"

Tennis Ball - 2.5"

Baseball - 2.75"

Tea cup - 3"

Grapefruit - 4"

Softball - 4.5"

Research has shown that it takes about 35-40 mph winds straight up in a storm to keep penny size hail suspended. Updraft winds of 56 mph are required to produce golf ball size hail. And if you've ever wondered how much wind is needed to produce baseball size hail... it's about 100 mph. I usually tell people that if a storm is producing golf ball size hail or larger, start thinking about where you would need to go if a tornado warning is issued. Storms that produce very small hail (smaller than ping pong ball size) are less likely to produce tornadoes, but it can happen.

So how big will the hail be today? Most of the hail stones will likely be smaller than 2 inches (or hen egg size), but that's still big enough to cause some problems. Still looks like most of the rain will be in northeast Kansas. And believe it or not, it will get cold enough for some rain to mix with or change to snow early Friday in western Kansas. Go figure that now that April is here.

Possible rainfall amounts through Saturday morning