Hot week ahead - a few rounds of storms

Welcome to Monday everyone. We are officially just over one week into summer and we've had quite a few hot days already, but nothing that is really out of the ordinary. Normal highs are in the low 90s, and they will jump up to about 93 from mid July to the end of the month. At the end of July, our normal high temperatures will start coming back down (albeit slowly and still in the 90s)

satellite image of the fires - California (click to make image larger)

This week, the weather pattern will be characterized by a HUGE high pressure across the western US. Wildfire season is well underway and some of the fires are large enough to be seen from space. The satellite image above was captured on June 20th of the Lake Fire in San Bernardino. The heat across the west will be relentless and the elements will continue to challenge the firefighters.

I don't think we will see that many storms this week in Kansas. The storm track is coming down over our area, which will likely keep a major heat wave from forming in our area. But the higher chances for rain will be just east of us. Storms that form in the northern Plains will slide to the southeast and just clip areas east of the Flint Hills. Some of the best storm chances we may have in the next 5-7 days will be Thursday evening-Friday. We could very well have another front coming through at that time, which will help get a round of storms going that will slide southeast. The wheat harvest has ended for some farmers in south central and eastern Kansas, but it's still going for many in the west.

There are many areas that have already hit the century mark this summer. We will be counting the days as we head into July. Still plenty of opportunities to get that hot!

Northern lights put on a show - changing weather pattern happening now

Traverse City, MI

The Northern Lights (Aurora Borealis) have put on quite a show the last few nights for much of the northern United States. Highly charged particles from the sun get caught in the earth's magnetic poles and interact with elements in the atmosphere. It's rare to see the northern lights as far south as Kansas, but sometimes the most intense solar storms can lead to a glimpse of the aurora. You'll know it when you see it because the views are quite stunning. 

courtesy Rachel Chazin - St Cloud, MN

We are definitely experiencing some hot weather this week in Kansas, but many areas have yet to hit 100 degrees. There's no doubt we will have plenty of chances to get that hot with July and August still to come. In fact, on average we see most of our 100 degree days in August. 

The weather pattern is changing as I type up this blog. We are going to see the temperatures cool down some heading into the weekend with chances for a little bit of rain. Forecast models show the showers and storms Thursday night into Friday will be scattered with the heaviest rainfall likely staying east of the Flint Hills. The big high pressure system that has been parked over Kansas is breaking down, and our winds in the upper atmosphere will shifting to the northwest. That will help drive a front across the area and allow temperatures to drop into the 80s for the start of the weekend.

Severe storms in the Midwest - changes coming to Kansas weather

courtesy Brandon Sullivan

courtesy Johnny Kelly - from Michigan

A wide swath of damage was reported last night across the upper Midwest from severe storms and some tornadoes. Strong winds flattened some of the corn in Iowa and into Illinois. Tornadoes in Michigan caused damage in Kalamazoo county. Summertime severe weather shifts to the north, and covers the Dakotas and areas up around the Great Lakes. The upper level winds begin to weaken across Kansas, so our severe threat does diminish some heading into July and August. It doesn't eliminate the severe chance, but it's not as likely as it is during the spring months. 

The weather pattern will change toward the end of the week. High pressure will setup once again west of the Rockies and the storm track will be coming down right over Kansas. This is going to allow some cooler air from the north to spread back across the Plains for Friday and the weekend. We may get a little bit of rain Thursday night or early Friday, but at least for Kansas, it's not that likely for widespread rainfall. 

Test your summer solstice knowledge...

Hot weather is coming for the weekend and that will match up with the official beginning to summer. You can test your summer solstice knowledge right here. I think it's fascinating the difference in day and night for different areas around the Northern Hemisphere. For example, the sun never sets in Barrow, Alaska from May 12th until August 2nd. Can you imagine have 24 hours of daylight, every day, for nearly 2 months? In Minneapolis, MN, they will have 15 hrs and 36 min of daylight. Wichita ends up with more than 14 and a half hours of daylight.

So many farmers have been asking for a stretch of hot, dry weather so the harvest can start and continue to roll. These are the days I remember quite well from growing up on a farm and ranch. Harvest means short, often sleepless nights and long days in the field just trying to get everything to the elevator before rain or hail takes it all out.

The pattern will certainly favor hot and dry weather in the coming days and perhaps over the next week or so. A large, high pressure dome will setup over Colorado, Kansas, and Oklahoma, which will deflect most storm chances around us and keep the hot weather going. This is the kind of pattern that setup back in 2011 and never budged, It's why we had 40-50 100 degree days and very little rainfall. I don't see that happening this summer. Thank goodness, right?

Flooding rains ease - watching Bill - shifting weather pattern

Emergency managers in Houston preparing for Tropical Storm Bill

After dealing with some flooding rainfall Sunday night and early Monday, it's nice to have a quiet radar again. Rivers that are out of their banks should continue to go down this afternoon and into the night. We will be closely watching Tropical Storm Bill as the storm heads north through the next few days. Inland flooding is imminent from Texas up through Oklahoma. Places that had more than 300% of their annual rainfall in May are now on track to get a soaking during the next 24-36 hours.

 

The moisture track should stay south and east of Kansas, so flooding isn't that likely around here. It is a close call, but we are confident that much of the state will have dry weather through the rest of the week. A few showers and storms may sneak into northern Kansas Wednesday night or Thursday, but those will remain very spotty.

Our weather pattern is about to change by Father's Day and into early next week. High pressure will be sliding east from the Rockies and should allow for some hot, dry weather into our 4th week of June. I expect more 90 degree temperatures and some sunshine too... perfect for the wheat harvest that is about to move into high gear around here. 

Rainfall amounts, possible tropical storm, and new technology coming

The lack of blog postings last week was for a good reason. I was back in Raleigh, North Carolina attending the American Meteorological Society broadcast conference. It's a 3 day event where government, broadcasters, and students in meteorology can present different topics related to weather and how it's delivered to you, the consumer. We also get an opportunity to learn about some of the new tools and technological advances that will move our profession forward.

Different pieces and instruments that make up the new satellite

One of the new tools that will be coming in early 2016 is a new satellite called GOES-R (GOES stands for "Geostationary" - meaning it travels in sync with the Earth) It's going to operate much faster and provide meteorologists with more pictures from 22,000 feet above the Earth than ever before. In most cases, we have to wait 15-20 minutes for new satellite images to come in, but this new satellite will provide some images every minute. The new satellite will also have many lightning detecting capabilities than ever before. If we are able to see significant increases in lightning, it could be the first sign of a strengthening storm.

Monday forecast

Tuesday forecast

The best chances for rain today will be focused over central and eastern Kansas with a weak low pressure in the upper atmosphere. This will then push a little farther east for Tuesday, so the higher chances for rain will be along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike during that time.

Potential developing tropical system

We will have to watch the development of what could become a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. If it does strengthen into a storm, it will be called Bill and could make landfall during the middle of the week. The forecast models then bring it across Oklahoma and toward Kansas by Friday, with the heaviest rains expected in southeast Kansas and into Missouri. 

Rainfall amounts (ending at 7 a.m. Monday)

Newton: 4.30"

Smith Center: 1.12"

Hutch: 0.94"

Dodge City: 0.79"

Medicine Lodge: 0.56"

Salina: 0.52"

Jabara Airport: 0.43"

Hill City: 0.39"

Hays: 0.23"

Concordia: 0.23"

Winfield: 0.22"

Russell: 0.12"

Garden City: 0.09"

Great Bend: 0.08"

Wichita: Trace

Rainfall totals (ending at 7 a.m. Friday)

Creamer Jessie - Salina

Dawn Walcutt - Salina

Heavy rain and storms rolled across northern Kansas Thursday evening. Strong winds and very heavy rainfall has caused some problems with flooding in Salina and many other areas of northeast Kansas.

Here are some totals:
5.40" - 3 miles NE of Belvue (Pottawatomie Co)
4.23" - 2 miles NE Silver Lake (Shawnee Co)
4.15" - NE Salina
4.10" - Topeka
3.25" - Clay Center
2.88" - 1 mile S Salina
1.52" - Ottawa
1.18" - 5 miles W Brookville
1.13" - 4 miles NE Lindsborg
0.43" - Newton

There are more chances for storms heading into Friday night (mainly over northern Kansas)

Saturday:
Scattered storms are possible over northwest Kansas with the rest of the area mainly dry

Sunday:
A cold front will be coming in from the northwest and chances for storms will increase for much of the state late Sunday night. Some storms could be severe.

Changing pattern this week

picture courtesy of Carol Mock

Welcome to June and the start of meteorological summer. The pattern this week is going to be different compared to anything that we've seen recently. Our wet and stormy May scenario was caused by storm system after storm system that was coming in from the southwest. This week, high pressure will build up over Texas, which will give them a break from massive flooding. As the high intensifies, the storm track gets shoved farther north. This is typical heading into summer and comes at the right time to start allowing fields to dry out in preparation for wheat harvest, which is only a few weeks away for some. 

There is some concern that storms that develop in eastern Colorado and Nebraska will drift down into central and northern Kansas Wednesday night - Friday. There is a chance some of the storms could be severe, but this doesn't look like a widespread severe setup.