Lack of 100s this month & calm before Labor Day storm

Debbie Cobb - Burrton - dense fog early Monday

The month of August is ending on a rather warm note, but we have been pretty fortunate this month to stay out of the 100s. On average, we can usually see a half dozen days with temperatures getting above the century mark, but summer rains helped to keep temperatures a little cooler. Dodge City did end up with one day hitting 100, but zero for Goodland, Salina, and Wichita. The last time Wichita didn't have a 100 degree day in August was back in 2009. Salina hasn't had an August without a 100 degree temperatures since 1997 (18 years!!)

The weather in Kansas this week looks pretty quiet. The upper level winds are going to be very light through Friday. Most of the active weather will be taking place in the Pacific Northwest. Occasional rain and a few storms will show up in eastern Colorado, which could drift into northwest Kansas during the late evening hours. None of the storms should be severe and will likely fall apart during the overnight hours. 

Hurricane Ignacio is packing winds between 115-120 mph as it passes by Hawaii to the northeast. It's forecast to weaken very soon, but is part of a series of hurricanes churning through the Pacific. Meanwhile, the Atlantic storms have failed to maintain hurricane strength for more than a day. But there is still plenty of season left. 

If you are looking ahead to the Labor Day weekend holiday, that's when Kansas weather starts to get more interesting. A storm system passing through the northern Plains will drive a cold front down into Kansas Sunday night/Monday, bringing us our best chance for rain in the next 8-10 days. Temperatures will also cool rather significantly with highs falling back into the 70s. So as you plan ahead, be ready for some rain and fall-like weather by the start of next week. 

Historic fires cover the west -relief could be coming

picture taken from the front range of the Rockies

This has just been a very difficult fire season across the west with some of the largest fires burning in Washington. Smoke plumes continue to spread over a large swath of the US and the haze in the air has delayed flights as far away as Denver. Fires so large that the smoke plumes are visible from space. The plumes look like clouds on the satellite images, but we know it's smoke because they originate from the same location. 

The weather pattern this week favors the spread of smoke south and east across the northern Plains and into the central US. High pressure centered over southern Colorado allows the upper level winds to carry the smoke east and then south (winds blow clockwise around the high) The smoke does thin out some as it travels farther away, but there's just enough of it in the air to create some very red sunsets as seen in the picture above.

courtesy Jan Blair

Just look at how poor the air quality is in the before and after picture from Lewiston, ID. 

The forecast looks favorable for some rain into the weekend. A storm system developing over the Pacific Ocean and pushing east will bring some heavier rain to the coastal areas of Washington and Oregon. Hopefully there won't be more dry lightning strikes to start more fires. 

Next system on the horizon

courtesy Andru Abbott

We are just 31 days away from the start of fall, but if the weather in the last week is any indication, we won't have to wait that long. Temperatures will be warming up some through the next several days, but even 80s would still be considered below average.

What makes forecasting so difficult this week is that we are forecasting rainfall and some storms for Thursday, but the main system hasn't even formed yet. The system will be coming off the higher elevations in Wyoming and western Nebraska on Wednesday. It doesn't get close enough to Kansas until Thursday, and that's when our chances for rain will begin increasing once again. 

There is some question as to how much we will cool off toward the end of the week, but the latest forecast models are showing more 70s returning to Kansas by Friday. We will be watching!

Hurricane season off to a slow start - weekend rain chances return

We finally have a hurricane to track in the Atlantic after a VERY slow start to the season. It seems a little late in the year for the first hurricane to form, but if you look back at the last 5 years, you'll see it has happened even later in the year. In 2013, Humberto didn't form until September 8, and in 2011, major hurricane Irene formed on August 20th. The season runs through November, but we don't expect there to be very many hurricanes this year, which is largely related to the developing and strengthening El Nino. 

Danny is a small hurricane that is forecast to weaken this weekend as it approaches the Dominican Republic. It will likely encounter some drier air as it moves east.

A cold front will slide through the state Saturday night into Sunday. There is a very good chance much of central and eastern Kansas will get some rain. Higher amounts will likely be in the northeast, but several areas will pick up between .25 and .50 by the early morning hours of Sunday. Once the front pushes on through, the humidity will be going down along with the temperatures. Some very nice weather is on the way for the end of the weekend.

Next week we return to typical August with several days in the 80s to near 90. There won't be much rain around with the high pressure so close to Kansas and the storm track shifting back to the north. 

Cold fronts getting stronger & next chance for rain

courtesy KCSWchasers

The weather pattern has definitely changed and as the result of a powerful, August storm system churning across the upper Midwest. It stirred up severe weather Tuesday afternoon with tornadoes in northern Illinois. The cold front helped produce heavy rain and some wind with storms extending all the way down into southeast Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Behind the front, we are feeling the autumn like weather today. Nice to see the humidity go down too.

The next front we are watching is going to arrive Saturday evening/night. Once again, we could see a few strong storms with heavy rain and some wind. The temperatures will likely fall into the upper 70s with another drop in humidity expected by Sunday. 

Forecast models are showing heaviest rain will go southeast of the Kansas Turnpike. This could change before the weekend arrives (if the storm system slows down at all), but recent trends in the data have suggested areas west of a Hays to Dodge City line may not see much moisture. 

Storm chances continue & a fall preview arriving

A big but brief shift in the weather pattern will result in some autumn like temperatures for the middle of the week. We have just over a month to go before fall arrives (according to the calendar), but we are already seeing pumpkins in local stores and in the next few weeks, even some chrysanthemums will probably show up too. So what's going on this week?

Low pressure passing through the northern Plains is sending cooler air south

A storm system racing across the northern Plains is pushing some cool, Canadian air south. As the change takes place, we have a potential for some severe storms. The potential Monday evening/night will be over western Kansas, and then shift east with the cold front on Tuesday.

Monday severe weather risk

Temperatures will fall some 15 degrees cooler than normal by Wednesday. Highs in the 70s will be common with lower humidity. And there could be some low temperatures in northwest Kansas falling into the 40s for Wednesday and Thursday morning. It won't last long though. As we approach the end of the week, temperatures will be climbing once again with highs rebounding to near 90.

El Nino update and what it means for Kansas

Thursday night on the 10 p.m. newscast, we talked a little bit more about what is forecast to become one of the strongest El Nino episodes on record. Some are calling it a Godzilla. Lots of jokes to be made and even some asking if the change in water temperatures can have that much impact on the weather patterns across the United States. 

El Nino is not something that comes and goes away in a month or two. It takes several months for it to develop and will take just that long or longer for it to dissipate. So it will be around for the upcoming winter and into early Spring 2016. This is just one variable in making a seasonal forecast. There will be other factors for us to consider when trying to figure out what lies ahead for the winter season.

El Nino influence favors a stormy and wet southern branch of the jet stream (referred to as the subtropical jet) while the Polar jet stream (shown in blue) favors dry weather around the Great Lakes with warmer than normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest. 

This current El Nino is being compared to the one in 1997-98 and in that winter, we had some very heavy snows. That doesn't mean we will get a ton of snow this winter, but does give some indication of what could happen with this warm water influence on the fall and winter pattern.

Perseids facts and a dry pattern ahead

The Perseids meteor shower will peak tonight/early Thursday morning. Here are some frequently asked questions before one of these events:
1) When is the best time to look? - Between midnight and 4 a.m.
2) How many will we be able to see? - If you are lucky, one might see one meteor per minute
3) Is there a particular direction to look? - For a meteor shower, just look straight up
4) Will the weather cooperate? - Our forecast is calling for mostly clear skies (except in the southwest where more clouds are expected)

Meteor showers are just simply dust sized particles that are expelled from a comet and they burn up as they enter the Earth's atmosphere. The first recorded observation of the Perseids was taken by a Chinese astronomer in 36 A.D. Meteors are said to hit the upper atmosphere at 37 miles per second.

It's not what I would consider a dramatic shift in the weather pattern, but the high pressure system at roughly 40,000 feet is on the move. It is pushing back to the west, which will trap most of the monsoon moisture over the Southwest and west of the Continental Divide. A few showers may show up in western Kansas through Wednesday night, but 99% of Kansas is expected to be dry. Take a look at the forecast for rainfall through Monday (August 17th). It shows a limited amount of moisture for far western Kansas, with central and eastern Kansas likely dry.

It's beginning to look like some of us have had our last 100 degree day that we will see for the rest of the summer. The jet stream is beginning to strengthen. As we move into the second half of August, the dome of high pressure may shift back over Kansas, but forecast models indicate that we should stay out of the triple digits.

Meteor shower this week AND a shifting pattern

It's one of the better meteor showers of the year and it will peak Wednesday night/Thursday morning. The good news is that the moon will be nearing new moon phase, so we won't have the extra light to wash out the meteors. Viewing tips: just look straight up and the later you watch, the better it will be. You just might see a meteor a minute if you're lucky.

The shifting pattern will include the upper high pressure moving west and setting up over Colorado and New Mexico. As it slides west, cooler weather will ooze south from the northern Plains. Highs will mainly be in the 80s for the bulk of the week and there's even a chance we could see a drop in humidity for Tuesday/Wednesday.

The best rain chances will be over western Kansas into Colorado, closely tied to the monsoon moisture that will be trapped underneath of the high pressure. So while most of us will have a dry week, we still expect to see some rain in our state. 

Rainfall reports - some flooding concerns

Flooding in Wichita.... again

Here are some rainfall reports through 8 a.m. Wednesday morning

Smith Center: 3.26"
Salina: 2.19"
Newton: 1.40"
Minneapolis: 1.35"
Jabara Airport: 1.32"
Wichita: 1.15"
Russell: 1.01"
Concordia: 0.67"
Dodge City: 0.18"
Great Bend: 0.05"


Here is the doppler radar estimated totals through about 8 a.m. The legend is in the bottom right of the image and the numbers are in inches.

Signs of fall nearby and rain chances return to Kansas.

Hope everyone had a nice weekend and welcome to the month of August. Although the days continue to get shorter and the average high temperatures are now going down, this can still be a very hot month. So far this summer, anytime we start to hit a stride of excessive heat day after day, it's broken up with some rain and cooler weather. And that sort of pattern should continue for this month. 

There's going to be a large swath of cooler air just north and east of us for much of the week. From the Dakotas down through the entire upper Midwest, temperatures could easily be 15-25 cooler than normal. We will be just on the edge of that cooler airmass. The storm track will be just grazing the edge of Kansas, which makes it a little challenging to figure out when we will have rain. But so far, it looks like Tuesday and Thursday night will be our best chances.

You can see the moisture gathering over the Rockies and that storm system will head east into Tuesday. Unfortunately, not everyone will get rain. It's not a very strong system, but as it ventures over the Plains, some pockets of heavy downpours may setup Tuesday morning and afternoon. It will weaken even more and slide east by Wednesday.