Ice accumulation concerns

The winter storm about to hit the Plains is going to complicate travel, especially Thursday night and Friday. Be ready. Latest information from our computer models continues to suggest a higher potential for ice accumulations, especially farther south. Some of the questions we have will be how warm do the temperatures get Friday afternoon. If we don't get back above freezing, the weight of ice on power lines combined with some gusty north winds could create power outages. It never hurts to be prepared for that sort of thing, and we will hope the temperature warms up just enough to help us out.

So here are some snapshots from our Future Track model, which will take you all the way into early Saturday. Some of the most difficult driving is expected Thursday afternoon (west) into Saturday morning (farther south and east)

Snowfall accumulations should be on the lighter side. Several 1-3" amounts will be possible throughout portions of central and western Kansas. This would be on top of some sleet that will fall Thursday evening.

Bottom line is that there is a high likelihood of messy weather Thanksgiving Day - early Saturday. If you were planning travel Friday or Saturday, be prepared for slick conditions.

Thanksgiving storm - still on the way

Good Tuesday morning everyone. This busy week continues and so many questions about travel weather. Feel free to post a question on my Facebook page and I'll do my best to follow up with you regarding the kind of conditions we expect. 

TRAVEL WEATHER THURSDAY:

Wichita to KC: wet roads

Wichita to Salina: wet roads

Wichita to OKC: wet roads

Salina to Hays: wet roads to start/some icy spots possible closer to Hays

Great Bend to KC: wet roads

There will be some locally heavy rainfall Thursday for Thanksgiving Day. In fact, it might be the wettest Thanksgiving on record for some locations. The forecast models are indicating over an inch, especially for south central and eastern Kansas.

As the wintry weather sets in for many areas Thursday night, there won't be much snow accumulation. In most cases, it will be less than inch for Kansas. So confidence is high, this will not be a big snow maker for the Plains.

The weather calms a bit for Friday, but into Saturday, we will be watching another round of moisture sneaking up from the south. It will likely lead to a wintry mix of some rain or snow. Although there may be a few hours of some icy conditions early Saturday, it is not looking to be a big ice storm and most roads will improve by mid to late morning Saturday.  

Holiday storm on the way - travel impacts

11 inches of snow near Chicago this weekend. Photo courtesy Marcus Leshock

Good Monday morning everyone and hope you had a nice weekend. This is a busy week with all of the preparation for Thanksgiving. Many of us will travel or have some family or friends traveling into the area. 

If you plan to travel today, Tuesday, or Wednesday, the weather doesn't look too bad. There could be some drizzle Wednesday around central and eastern Kansas, but it's unlikely to be much more than that. The front will move into northwest Kansas Wednesday evening and that will become the focus for developing rain into Thanksgiving Day.

If you are traveling on Thanksgiving Day, it is looking like rain for most of Kansas, but traveling west of a line from Dodge City to Hays, you will likely encounter some light snow. This is not likely to be a heavy snow maker. In fact, forecast models are indicating just an inch or two for the areas that see snow on Thanksgiving (see the map below)

There is a second round of moisture that will be headed into the central and southern Plains next weekend. It could bring a wintry mix of some snow or freezing drizzle. Be sure to check back with us as we continue to focus in on what kind of precipitation type we may get Friday Night - Sunday. It's very unlikely there will be much more than a few hours of freezing drizzle (if that ends up coming our way for the weekend)

Strong front Friday - Thanksgiving travel preview

Wednesday evening sunset - courtesy Lisa Pitts - Hutch

This has just been a crazy week. Tornadoes on Monday, blizzard on Tuesday, and now this 4.7 magnitude earthquake that woke most of us up early Thursday. Wow!

Our weather looks rather quiet for Thursday afternoon with sunshine and cooler weather. Highs will stay in the 50s. 

Forecast wind for Friday evening

The next cold front will arrive Friday evening. You will know exactly when it hits because the wind is going to quickly switch to the north and get very gusty. Our Future Track shows that by 6:30 p.m., much of the state will have experienced a wind shift and it will be howling for awhile. There will be a few sprinkles or flurries, but they will be brief and not last for more than just a few hours. 

If you have plans to travel next week for Thanksgiving, here is a preview of what the weather pattern will look like and what kinds of conditions you may encounter as you head out. A big storm system will be developing and coming into the Pacific Northwest, so the greatest potential of travel delays will be in that area. By Wednesday, one of the busiest travel days of the year, light snow will stretch from the Colorado Rockies to Montana. There could be some light snow in the higher elevations of California. Around Kansas, I would expect mild weather and windy conditions out of the south. But overall, travel weather doesn't look too bad for much of the country.

Historic November tornadoes.. now a blizzard

Just an incredible day on Monday with nearly a dozen tornadoes touching down in Kansas. It was the most significant tornado episode on record for this late in November and in the season. Sure, we've had tornadoes recorded in all months of the year, even one last year in December. But the last time it happened in November was back in 2008 near Johnson City, KS (Stanton Co - SW Kansas) Keep in mind, the 30 year average is just 1 tornado in November for Kansas.

Once again, our Grainfield skycam was in the right place at the right time. This happened earlier this year (May 9th) when we were able to carry 4 different tornadoes live on the air from there. How did we get so many tornadoes. This is a powerful storm system in the upper atmosphere. Down near the ground, you have southeast winds carrying up moisture, and higher up, winds are coming from the southwest (well over 100 mph). That creates the spin necessary to get tornadoes. And based on my count, there were almost a dozen of them Monday evening.

The wintry side of the storm system will bring some heavier snows to the far west. Snow will be as far south as Garden City and maybe Liberal, but accumulations will be on the lighter side because ground temperatures are still pretty warm. Near blizzard conditions are expected in the northwest where winds will be gusting to 40 mph for several hours Tuesday afternoon.

Rainfall Amounts:
Topeka: 1.88"
Medicine Lodge: 1.45"
Coffeyville: 1.30"
Concordia: 1.05"
Salina: 0.89"
Hutch: 0.85"
Wichita (Eisenhower): 0.81"
Russell: 0.74"
Winfield: 0.72"
Emporia: 0.70"
Dodge City: 0.68"
Smith Center: 0.59"
Hays: 0.58"
Jabara Airport: 0.47"
Elkhart: 0.46"
Liberal: 0.46"
Garden City: 0.31"
Hill City: 0.25"
Goodland: 0.06"

Another big storm rolling through - severe storms & snow

Hope everyone had a nice weekend. Once again this week, we are tracking another big storm system that will move across the Plains, producing some severe weather and eventually, snow! 

The one thing that is definitely different about this storm over the one last week is how fast it's moving. This particular system will move slowly from west to east, giving it a chance to produce some nice rainfall for Kansas, and a little more snow in western Kansas Tuesday. Some severe storms are expected in western Kansas after 3 or 4 p.m. Monday. The highest chance for hail and wind producing storms will be west of a line from Russell to Pratt. Heavier rains should get into central Kansas around 9 or 10 p.m. Monday night. 

Tuesday will bring snow back to far western Kansas. Blowing snow is likely, especially throughout northwest Kansas and eastern Colorado. Because the snowfall will take place over the course of 10-12 hours, several inches will be possible and I-70 may be closed for awhile because of poor visibility. 

We will be watching a big push of colder air that is trying to move toward Kansas for next weekend. It's possible by next Saturday, highs may not get out of the 30s. It looks dry, but turning colder for the weekend. Updates to come!!

One storm departs - more stormy weather coming

courtesy Andrew - Atwood, KS

Our first snow of the season showed up basically right on schedule. Northwest Kansas generally gets the first batch and it usually comes in November. Yes, we've had snow in October before, but on average, November is when we start expecting wintry precipitation. 

It wasn't very much, and just by glancing at the snow depth map, you'll quickly be able to see where most of the snow was dumped... the Rockies. For skiers, this is a wonderful start to the season and it's only going to get better as we move ahead. 

So let's take a look into what's happening next. The weather will certainly quiet down for today/Friday. Lighter winds and typical fall temperatures will be around into the weekend. The pattern flattens out for a bit, but we aren't out of the stormy weather by any means. In the map below, see the small "L" in southern California? That system will be headed northeast by the end of the weekend. There's a good chance that system will bring some light rain showers to the area Sunday night/Monday. At the same time, a much bigger system will be forming over the Sierras and Cascades in the western US. 

We may have our hands full again early next week. Some of the computer data suggest more wind, rain, and even snow returning to Kansas by Monday night/Tuesday. It's too early to know about accumulations. The storm hasn't even formed yet, but be prepared for more active weather in just 4-5 days. 

Storm gets closer - blizzard warning and wind

Snow from Nevada - courtesy NWS Elko

There's not much change to the going forecast of a storm system that will move into Kansas for Wednesday, bringing a lot of wind but only some snowfall.

The track of the low will go from around Limon, CO to southeast of Goodland/Colby by Wednesday afternoon. The heaviest snowfall will stretch from northeast Colorado to western Nebraska, but it still looks like some 1-3" snow amounts will fall in far northwest Kansas.

Everybody will see a lot of wind Wednesday with gusts over 50 mph likely, especially farther west.

Severe thunderstorms are going to develop in Missouri early in the afternoon and quickly push east. Some storms will be moving at 50 or 60 mph because of the powerful winds driving this system across the Plains.

Strong winds will begin backing down Thursday, and we will be set up for some nice, fall weather by Friday.

Wild week of weather coming up!

I hope everyone had a wonderful weekend. I spent a great deal of time outside enjoying the weather in northeast Kansas. 

Snow falling Sunday in the Sierra Mountains

This is going to be a wild week of weather with the potential of severe storms and near blizzard conditions for parts of the Plains. Get ready! We are watching a large storm system in the western US and it will be delivering rain and snow to the drought areas of California. As the system rolls east, severe storms will likely develop from eastern Kansas into Missouri, Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma, Illinois, and the Tennessee River Valley. This will include hail, wind, and some tornadoes.

The backside of the low will also be an area of concern with snow and tremendous wind. Although a very small area of Kansas will see snow, there is a chance I-70 may get shutdown for awhile because of the low visibility Wednesday morning and into the afternoon. This particular storm is moving fast, so the weather will improve by Wednesday night. 

If you've been following the blog closely the last few weeks, I mentioned that I thought our cold spells this month would be rather brief. That still looks to be holding true. Once this storm gets out of the Plains, we will see temperatures warming back into the 60s by next weekend as the pattern calms down for a few days. 

Rainfall amounts & severe storms nearby

It wasn't much, but some areas of the state had a little rainfall Wednesday night. Here are the amounts through 6 a.m. Thursday:

Liberal: 0.50"
Dodge City: 0.45"
Hill City: 0.26"
Garden City: 0.21"
Smit Center: 0.21"
Elkhart: 0.20"
Pratt: 0.19"
Goodland: 0.15"
Russell: 0.10"
Hays: 0.06"
Hutch: 0.03"
Concordia: 0.01"

A cold front will continue to push through the state and bring the temperatures back to what is considered normal for November. Look at the colder air off to the north and west of Kansas. That is the air coming our way for the start of the weekend. There will be a few severe storms today from extreme southeast Kansas down through Oklahoma and into Texas. More flooding rainfall is possible in areas of Texas that don't need any more moisture right now.

Some rain coming... where is the cold air?

View above Squaw Valley, CA - recently covered in several inches of snow

Just 4 days into November and the weather has just been so weird with 70 and 80 degree temperatures. We know as meteorologists that no matter what is forecast in the weather, not everyone will be happy. Some of you are ready for snow and others wish we could just skip the winter season. 

We will see a little rain late tonight and early Thursday, but look how little it will be. Amounts will be well under 0.25" as the main moisture gets shoved east into Missouri. 

One of the pieces of figuring out our winter forecast is studying the Arctic Oscillation. I know I've mentioned it on the blog before, but this is a little more detailed look at what is happening. Where is all of the colder air that we are supposed to have in November? When the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is positive, much of the cold air remains trapped up around the Arctic. You can still have a stormy weather pattern, but those big cold air masses tend to stay locked up north. Take a look at the recent index and it has been strongly positive. The end result for much of the country is warmer than normal temperatures.

When the AO drops into the negative, there is a MUCH better chance to see cold outbreaks with the possibility of snow. There is a tendency for it to be slightly warmer than normal around the Arctic Circle while Arctic outbreaks dip south. 

The trend moving into the middle of the month is for the AO to move back closer to neutral (maybe go slightly negative) and some much colder air could arrive in the middle of next week (right after Veteran's Day) 

Another storm coming and what to look for in November

It will be just warm enough the next few days that record high temperatures will be in jeopardy for a few areas of Kansas. Temperature records are only kept for a small number of towns in Kansas, and those with a good chance of either having a record tie or break include Russell and Salina. We will be watching. 

The warm, windy weather is a direct result of a developing storm on the west coast the next few days. Most of the time when we get a storm developing in the west, it has some impact on our local weather. This one will too, but it won't reach us until Thursday, when it drives a cold front across the area and brings a chance for rain. If the storm arrives later than forecast, the possibility of rain may get pushed farther west. Right now, it looks like the higher chances for rain will be central and east. 

Much cooler air will be coming down the pike by the end of the week. We will see our highs fall back below normal by Friday and Saturday. Another hard freeze should be coming either Friday or Saturday morning.

Overall, in looking at what the computer models are suggesting for November, this could be a warmer than average month for Kansas. October was rather warm too, and November looks to continue that trend. Average highs are in the 50s throughout most of the month, so let's watch and see how many 60 and 70 degree days we get between now and the 30th. Moisture has been hard to come by for a lot of areas. Some of the longer range models keep most of the rains south and east of Kansas. The storm track has been extremely active throughout the southern part of the US, and that won't likely change this month. We continue to watch the track of these storms and see if what has happened continues now into November. El Nino is making it interesting, but one thing that has been surprising is the lack of cold air with several of these passing storms.