2015 - What a year in Kansas weather!!

This has been a very busy year around Kansas. You may not realize the number of records that were established in 2015. It wasn't just record highs, but rainfall, tornadoes, and El Niño all made history.

Rainfall:

There were several areas of southwest Kansas that had one of their wettest years in recent history. Official numbers are not in yet, but preliminary numbers indicate that some areas may have picked up 45 inches of moisture. That's almost unheard of for a very dry part of Kansas. They will have a very green spring in 2016.

Historic May rainfall causes some flooding along the Arkansas River

Wichita - 8th wettest May with almost 12 inches of rain
Salina - 4th wettest May with over 8 inches

Tornadoes:
Tied for 4th most tornadoes in Kansas since 1990.
The count may go higher, but unofficially, 124 tornadoes occurred this year in our state. This number ties with 2004, and is 33 above the annual normal number of tornadoes. You might remember, this comes on the heels of a very slow year with tornadoes in 2014 when only 41 were recorded for the state.
There were 28 tornadoes in April - 5th highest since 1990
63 tornadoes in May - 4th highest since 1990

And who could forget the crazy November that we had with 16 tornadoes. That was the 2nd highest November total since 1990.

November 16th tornadoes in western Kansas

Northwest Kansas set a record for the latest tornado to ever happen (since record keeping began back in the 50s)

I don't ever recall a year where we've been able to carry so many tornadoes live on TV. Our Grainfield camera captured 4 different tornadoes on May 9th, and then it happened to be in the right place at the right time again on November 16th.

And then there was the Nickerson tornado that touched down on July 13th. We had over 300 pictures sent to us. It was a very photogenic storm, and once again, we carried it live on the air thanks to our Hutchinson skycam, located on the fairgrounds. This tornado was visible from 20-30 miles away.

El Niño:
This current El Nino reached an astounding 3.1° Celsius above average in the Pacific. This is a bit warmer than the last strong El Nino that occurred back in 1997-98. It continues to be very strong today, but should be weakening next spring. This is a major contributing factor to the very wet winter we've already had (and will continue to see)

Best wishes for a Happy New Year. We hope you'll stick with us for all of the excitement that Kansas weather will bring in 2016!

One more system - then some minor changes

Major flooding continues in Missouri and St Louis is having their wettest year ever on record. As of 3 p.m. yesterday, the total has climbed to 58.14", breaking the old record of 57.96". Sandbags aren't something you normally see in the winter season. 

Just as fast as one storm leaves the central US, another one is quickly moving in to replace it. We continue to get a lot of feedback on the busted snow forecast for Sunday/Monday. Many are upset that we were missed, while others are excited that we didn't get the predicted amounts. Forecasting snow is one of the hardest things we have to do. Storms that involve mixed precipitation types will always be the most challenging ones to figure out. 

The system that is coming out of the southwest for tonight (Tuesday night) is not overly impressive. Moisture is very limited and because the system is moving so fast, it's not likely to produce any heavy amounts of snow. Our Future Track model shows the light snow coming through around midnight. It will likely be gone in time for morning drivers Wednesday.

Our weather pattern shifts around at the end of the week. The start of 2016 will not be as cold or stormy. A couple of systems will be coming through the west for the first weekend of the new year, but none of them have much of a chance at producing moisture for Kansas. We will be watching, but the way things are coming together now, looks like we will have some quieter weather ahead going into the new year.

Sneak peak to Christmas Day - very wet December

courtesy Mark Tarello - Martin, SD with 1 foot of snow from Tuesdays winter storm

So much excitement with just 9 days to go before Christmas. It's a busy time of the year with last minute shopping, holiday parties, etc. Seems like we are all going many different directions. While a white Christmas would make a lot of you happy, it isn't looking very likely this year. So travel weather through Christmas week shouldn't be too bad. Here's a look at what's ahead into the weekend and next week:

Today - snow flurries - no accumulation - much colder air
Friday - cold morning - less cold in the afternoon with southwest winds
Saturday/Sunday - warmer with highs int he 50s
Monday - Thursday - mainly 40s and 50s around the state - no rain or snow
Christmas Day - Storm developing just west of Kansas. At this time, doesn't look major, but could bring a rain/snow chance right after Christmas.

It should turn colder on Christmas Day or the day after, but any blasts of cold weather from Canada will likely be very brief.

Look at Dodge City so far in the month of December. Now the 6th wettest December on record. Wichita is also having it's 9th wettest year on record with all of the big rains we've had in the last few months. And we are still on track to continue having wet weather through the rest of the winter season.

Snow today for some - pattern change into Christmas week

Keystone Resort - Colorado - 9" of snow overnight

The big winter storm storm dumping snow on Colorado and Nebraska slides by to our northwest for today. It has dumped major snow on the High Plains and will continue it's move to the northeast through Wednesday. Our focus, with just 10 days to go before Christmas, is whether or not we will have snow before the holiday. Some want a white Christmas and others probably prefer sunshine and warm weather (good for traveling).

After some chilly weather at the end of this week (highs in the 30s and 40s), we will see a BIG warm up this weekend. Highs are expected to get back into the 50s for Saturday and Sunday. And it will turn windy too. The warmth will return ahead of the developing weather pattern change that is due in during Christmas week.

The way it's looking now is that a weak cold front will come through on Monday, but it only drops the temperatures slightly. A stronger system should be developing Wednesday/Thursday, but afternoon highs may still be too warm for any snow. We will continue to watch the computer models and see what develops out of the pattern shift for next week. I don't think very many of us will have a White Christmas, but if you are still dreaming of one, there is still time for the models to adjust their thinking. 

December is, on average, the snowiest month of the year in Wichita. Some areas are still waiting on the first one inch to fall. The average first 1 inch of snow for south central Kansas is December 18th. But we will be well past the 18th before we even have a chance of measurable snow.

Look to the sky tonight... and the next storm coming

Look to the sky tonight for the Geminids meteor shower! This one isn't quite so rough on our sleep schedule because best viewing is likely before midnight. Look to the east.

Flooding rainfall created quite a few issues over the weekend. Some of the heaviest rainfall was across Harvey, McPherson, Saline, and Ottawa counties. Record rains were reported in Wichita, Dodge City, and Salina. 

Photo courtesy M Unruh - flooding in Hesston along Emma Creek

After some bizarre December warmth last week, the weather has quickly shifted this week to a stormy, cooler pattern over much of the central US. 

The second storm of the week is already rolling into the Plains for Tuesday. This next one will be a fairly significant snow maker from Colorado into Nebraska. Winter storm watches stretch from Colorado to Minnesota. Northwest Kansas will see a little snow come Tuesday, but it shouldn't be much more than an inch, maybe two by the end of the day. 

Much colder air will slide south by Thursday. It won't be around very long, but highs in the 20s and 30s are certainly possible for about 24-36 hours. 

It still looks stormy heading into Christmas week. We will take a closer look at it coming up Tuesday morning. Hope you'll check back.

Weekend storm... rain, severe weather, and snowfall

When you consider how warm this week has been, it probably won't be much of a surprise that we could have some severe storms Saturday afternoon in Kansas. Main concerns will be some hail and wind, but just because it's December, we can't completely rule out a brief tornado. Main focus for severe storms will be around Wichita and areas east.

 

Rainfall amounts could easily surpass an inch for areas along and east of I-135. This fits right in with the winter forecast of above normal rainfall. These very wet storms should continue throughout the rest of the season. 

Snowfall will arrive into western Kansas Saturday night and Sunday. This looks to be a heavy wet snow and could pile up quickly. Some of the snow is expected to melt as it falls, but the possibility of 5 or 6 inches looks very reasonable for locations west of a line from Russell to Dodge City. So if you live in western Kansas, be prepared for some wind and snow that could cause some driving issues during the height of the storm Sunday. 

It's not going to be bitterly cold behind the storm. Just typical December 30s and 40s into the start of next week.

Chance of a White Christmas? Here's a look

We are just a couple weeks of away from Christmas and getting asked almost daily "will we have a White Christmas?" In meteorology, we define a White Christmas as having 1" of snow on the ground Christmas morning or it could fall later in the day. The odds are usually against it (only a 10-15% chance any given year), but in the last couple of years, some of us have been lucky enough to have snow around for the holiday.

The number of storms that we will have between now and Christmas (to produce the snow) is now becoming more clear. And it looks like there will be 4 of them. Only two of them have much of a chance of producing our Christmas snow and it's not clear how much it would be.

Storm #1: This weekend

This system will likely produce mainly rain, with some wet snow possible across central and western Kansas. It won't be very cold, so some of the snow will mix with rain even into Sunday.

Storm #2: Tuesday (Dec. 15)

This storm will just clip NW Kansas with a little light snow. Most of the moisture will stretch from the Rockies to the northern Plains. 

Storm #3: Friday (Dec 18th)

This system will have a chance of producing some widespread light snow. It will be much colder across the Plains at the end of next week, so any moisture that falls should be in the form of snow for our area. Some accumulation is possible, but it may not be enough for it to stick around until Christmas. But this system is one to watch.

Storm #4: Early Christmas week

There should be another storm forming at the beginning of Christmas week. Where it goes is still a little uncertain. But this would likely be the last storm coming through before Christmas. Temperatures may be too warm for snow at the beginning of the storm, but it's possible as it moves by that it could produce snow. 

More warmth followed by weekend storm developing

Good Wednesday morning! Just another typical, 60 degree day in December, right? In looking back at the last 4 years, we've had at least one 60 degree day in December. So it's maybe not as unusual as one might think, but it feels weird with the start of winter just less than 2 weeks away. Look back to 2012, after a very hot summer, we had eight 60 degree days during the month.

After the warmth this week, bigger changes will start to take shape into the weekend and for the next few weeks leading up to Christmas. A storm will be forming over Arizona by Friday night and early Saturday. Based on the latest data, here's what we expect to happen:

Saturday (afternoon) - rapid increase in clouds / much cooler / few flurries in far western Kansas

Saturday (night) - rain developing for south central and eastern Kansas / some light snow in the southwest

Sunday (morning) - light snow from southwest into central Kansas / rain-snow mix farther east

Sunday (afternoon) - Pockets of heavier snow-mixed with rain across eastern Kansas

We don't expect it to be very cold with this weekend storm, so any snow that falls could be a heavy, wet snow. Some of it will melt as it falls. This is not going to be an ice storm like the Thanksgiving storm.

Will we have a White Christmas and what kind of conditions will we have leading up to the holiday? Some of the specific details aren't known yet, but coming up tomorrow (Thursday), we will look at what may be ahead for the rest of the month.

Warm December week ahead

Jeff Foltz - Caldwell

Hope everyone had a great weekend. This is going to be an unbelievable week for December. Record warmth is possible as temperatures soar into the 60s and even a few 70s may show up by the end of the week. So what's going on with this crazy weather?

The jest stream is positioned just north of us and several weaker storms will be traveling from west to east through the central and northern Plains. There's very little moisture hanging around, so most of the systems will come through and do little more than shift the wind direction. This is just a temporary break in the stormy pattern that will likely be back very soon. 

A huge buckle in the jet stream will be taking shape at the end of the week. Some colder air will be sliding south from Canada as a storm tries to form in the southern Plains by the weekend. So when will the milder weather end? Right now, it looks like a stronger front will push through Friday night into Saturday and that will be the end of the unseasonably warm stretch for now. 

There is a possibility for some rain or snow next week in parts of the Plains. It's unclear if it will be in Kansas or setup just south and east of our area. Stick with us throughout the week to see what happens.

Winter Outlook 2015-16

Here we are just a little more than two weeks from the start of winter and we've already had some very interesting things happen. First, the 20 inches of snow for Atwood/Colby, and then the Thanksgiving ice storm that damaged trees and knocked out power to some areas of central and southern Kansas. And we keep hearing about this "Godzilla" El Niño. That's not the only thing to consider when looking long range. Why can't we look back to the last strong El Niño and make a prediction solely off of that? Each event is definitely different, and there are so many factors. It's not easy and we hesitate to make long range predictions because of the fear we will be completely wrong. I still like doing these winter forecasts because it's very interesting and fascinating to me and I think there is a very high level of interest in understanding what could be ahead.

The El Niño is significant to say the least. In the map below (and you can click on any image to enlarge it), I've highlighted the area that is monitored for El Niño and La Niña. Water temperatures are right at 3° Celsius warmer than normal in that region, and this will likely be the strongest ever recorded. While 3° degrees may not sound like much, it has a profound impact on the weather pattern. It also impacts wildlife and fish behavior, which brings up other topics of discussion that we won't get into here.

One of the other factors taken into account for this long range prediction is the Arctic Oscillation (called "AO" for short). I've mentioned it before here on the blog, but just as a refresher, here's why it's important. When the AO is positive, we generally have milder stretches of weather because the bitterly cold air is locked up near the Arctic. When we see it go negative, the eastern two-thirds of the country become quite cold and it can last for a week or two at a time. In fact, it can be warmer near the Arctic than in the US when we see a negative trend in the AO.

Given that we've had such a positive AO this fall and still today, I'm leaning more toward this trend throughout the winter. Sure, there may be some occasional instances of it going negative and it getting cold for a bit, but the overall thought is that we will end up positive for much of the winter. Therefore, I'm leaning toward above normal temperatures throughout the winter.

The El Niño influence will keep us busy from now all the way into next summer. We will likely continue to see one storm right after another throughout the season. Some of them will be quite strong (like the one that caused tornadoes and blizzard conditions) I would expect these storms to mature right over the 4 Corners area and into the Plains. When storms mature near our area, we can get hammered with all kinds of weather. And I think you'll see that happen several times between now and the end of March.

Bottom line here is that this should be a very interesting winter for most of the Plains. If you have questions, please feel free to ask. It's enjoyable looking into these long range patterns.

More active weather - no major storms yet

courtesy Nila Burch - Herington

After a long, icy holiday weekend, the weather has started to calm down and we are likely seeing Mother Nature take a break before more stormy weather heads into the Plains.

We are watching a storm system that will push into the region over the weekend. It will be starved of moisture, and isn't anything like the storm last weekend. There will be a chance for some drizzle or a few sprinkles, but the system is moving fairly quickly and will likely be gone by the end of the weekend.

Milder weather looks like it will be around for awhile longer. The pattern will shift again at the start of next week (Dec. 7th). Although we will have some occasional cold fronts moving through, temperatures in the afternoon will likely stay above normal through much of the week.

We are still expecting the weather to turn stormy in about 10 days. It's looking like at least two, if not three or four big storm systems will cross the area between now and the end of the month. This is something we will be talking about in the winter forecast which will be coming out Thursday night.

November moisture - more storms on the horizon

courtesy Tami Preston

courtesy Ann Schrick

It is the start to meteorological winter (yes, there is such a thing) According to the calendar, winter begins December 21st, but for simplicity, meteorologists think of December, January, and February as the winter months. The month of November was a wet one for most of Kansas. We just had the wettest Thanksgiving on record and the 7th wettest for Wichita. We finish the month running a little above normal on moisture. 

Although we've had some chilly days too, there haven't been any major cold blasts with the storm systems so far. This is something that should be considered when looking ahead to the remainder of the winter. 

We will see milder air pushing back across the central US during the second half of the week as another storm system hits the West by Thursday/Friday. Some areas could be nearing 60 by Friday, but after that, the western storm system will be rolling into the area. 

Saturday: Looking dry - increasing clouds - highs still near 50

Sunday: Chance for some very light rain showers (maybe mixed with a wet snowflake) - very little cold air around, so highs will still be in the 40s. 

I'll be releasing a winter outlook Thursday night at 10 p.m. If you miss it, we will share the details here on the blog late in the week.

Have a good day!