Latest winter storm tracks

 

Friday is finally here and it's going to be a very nice day around the state. No doubt, this kind of weather causes spring fever, and then you realize it's late January and it snaps us back to reality. If you like warmer weather, enjoy it while you can. I say that because I know there are still so many of you cheering for a snow storm before winter is all over with.

Yesterday, I tried to highlight our different levels of confidence with the approaching storm. We do know there will be a storm early next week and it's going to have a huge impact in the Plains. How much snow is also becoming more clear too, and for some, it's going to be quite a bit. The track of the storm is still very much key. Computer models were trending back north a bit yesterday, but now they are just a little farther south. Based on everything that I've looked at, it's looking like western, central, and northern Kansas should be ready for the heaviest (8" of snow or more). This will include Dodge City, Hays, Goodland, Colby, Russell, Salina, Great Bend (just to name a few)

The two models we base our forecast so heavily on is the GFS (Global Forecast System) and the European model. 

The track of the low on the European model takes the low from near Amarillo to Wichita Falls, then up to around Tulsa, and then on to KC. 

The GFS model is a little north of that track, taking the low from Amarillo to Wichita, then over into western Missouri. Heaviest snows will likely occur 100-200 miles north of the low. 

Regardless of how much snow we do or don't get, we won't miss the wind and cold. Be ready for subzero wind chills by the middle of next week. It will be getting very cold with our 3rd blast of Arctic air coming south. 

Winter storm potential next week

David Doan - Bel Aire

Welcome to Thursday everyone. I hope everyone is having a nice week. I suppose if we took a survey, the majority would choose 60 degree weather over the snow that is in the forecast. But I continue to hear from the snow-lovers requesting at least one or two more good winter storms before spring arrives. 

Some of us just haven't been in the right spot for snow this winter. We've had  some good moisture. In fact, both Salina and Wichita have had more than 6.50 inches of moisture since November 1st. But we've also had enough warm weather to keep most of it in the liquid form. 

Will the storm next week be a big snow maker? Simply put, we don't know yet to say one way or the other. The storm hasn't even developed yet, so we don't have a good handle on the full potential. But, confidence is high that there will be a storm and it will turn much colder next week. Confidence is medium that we will have moisture in the Monday/Tuesday time frame. Where the confidence drops off is in the track of the storm and how much snow we will get. 

GFS model

European model

Regardless of the storm track, much colder air is coming!

Here are two possible tracks from the computer models this morning. One going farther south and the other one farther north. If the southern track is correct, most of Kansas will stand a good chance of accumulating snow and near blizzard like conditions. If the northern track is the one, heavier snow will be north with drier air limiting the snow amounts for most of the state. 

I'll keep you updated on the trends.

Calm, mild weather now ... storm is looming

Good Wednesday morning! I know there is a lot of excitement with 60s in the forecast for the end of the week. Some might say that having 60s in winter is just one less day you have to deal with snow and cold, while others will say that getting this warm at this time of year comes with a price. That could be the case for next week.

Take a look at some of the snowfall amounts from surrounding cities:

Oklahoma City: 1.2"

Dallas: Trace

Tulsa: 3"

Little Rock: 5.7"

Springfield: 3"

Kansas City: 5.3"

Wichita is still waiting on the first 1 inch of snow, and we aren't the only ones. Several surrounding towns haven't had much snow this winter. I'm still getting all kinds of requests on Facebook from people wanting at least some snow before winter is over. 

We've been missed by many of the recent big storms. In fact, we haven't had any big snows since some of the early winter storms back in November and December. The pattern has been pretty active for several weeks. Our recent storms haven't been all that intense or had much moisture to work with. 

After all of the warmth this week, get ready for a major winter storm that will likely impact Kansas at the start of next week. There are two particular models that we base most of our forecasting on, and those models agree that heavy snow, wind, rain, and cold will be coming into Kansas Monday and Tuesday.

I'm posting two possible tracks that the forecast models are showing. Both of them are trending south, increasing the possibility that western and northern Kansas could see quite a bit of snow. The concern will be STRONG north winds Monday night and Tuesday, creating blizzard conditions. We don't know how much snow will fall, but even if it ends up being half of what we are seeing on the computer data, we are still looking at potential white out conditions at the start of next week. Enjoy the warm, quiet weather this week because it will be changing very soon.

Coming soon: early taste of spring!

Welcome to a new week everyone and hope you enjoyed the weekend. After two back-to-back weekends of dealing with Arctic air, is was a little bit of a change seeing some 60s and 70s in southwest Kansas yesterday. More of that kind of weather on the way.

Just an incredible snow event on the East Coast this weekend. Despite the busy, non-stop schedules that so many keep, isn't it amazing how Mother Nature can bring us all to a standstill? As the media covered the storm, it was incredible to see the empty streets in what are otherwise very busy places like NYC and Washington D.C. Just look at some of the snowfall reports from the weekend:

JFK Airport: 30.5

Baltimore-Washington International Airport: 29.2"

La Guardia Airport; 27.9"

Central Park: 26.8"

White House: 13.0"

Snowfall summary

courtesy Chris McBee - Arlington, VA

courtesy Aaron Landry - Washtington D.C.

courtesy Rachel Steetle - Smithfield, PA

The weather in Kansas is about to change in a big way. We've had two rounds of Arctic air and several episodes of slick road conditions recently, but we are headed for some spring-like weather toward the end of the week. So many are already talking about the forecast for 60s by Friday and the weekend. We will see a break in the stormy pattern and with the jet stream pushing back farther north, there will be at least two, if not three days of well above normal temperatures. Looking long range, it doesn't look like we will see a return to stormy weather until the first part of February.

Snowfall reports (Thursday morning)

The latest round of winter weather is nearly over with now. Some are thrilled with the snow, but others are disappointed that they were missed. Here are some of the reports that have been coming in.

courtesy Karen - Antonino (near Hays)

courtesy Jo - from Hays

1 West of Concordia - 7.5"
Courtland (Republic Co.) - 6"
Clyde (Cloud Co.) - 5"
8 NE Clay Center (Clay Co.) - 5"
4 NE Ada (Ottawa Co.) - 5"
1 S Barnard (Lincoln Co.) - 4.5"
6 NW Sylvan Grove (Lincoln Co.) - 4"
Smith Center - 3.5"
Minneapolis - 3.5"
Hays - 3.5"
KSU Campus - 3.1"
Russell - 2.7"
Ellsworth - 2.5"
Abilene - 2"
Salina - 2"

Next storm arrives & check out our solar system

courtesy Nick Myers - Liberal

The next storm rolls into the central Plains today and we can expect more wintry weather. It won't be very heavy, but we still expect a few areas to get 2 or 3 inches in parts of central and northern Kansas. The interesting thing is this storm is diving southeast rather quickly, so the opportunity for snowfall will only last about 12-18 hours before it's gone entirely. This is the same system that will increase in intensity as it heads to the East Coast for the weekend. Some places around Washington D.C. could get locally 2 feet of snow. So this will be an interesting one to watch.

A quick glance at our snowfall amounts this winter season shows many areas are below normal. Wichita hasn't even had an inch of snow yet. Western Kansas had some big snows early in the season, but since then, there hasn't been much accumulation. There's still plenty of winter left and as most of you know, we can still get some big winter storms in the next few months. 

Have you heard? There are 5 different planets that will align in the southern sky for the next 5 weeks. You will have to get up early (about 45 minutes before sunrise) and you might need some binoculars to see Mercury. It's the lowest planet on the horizon. Saturn, Jupiter, and Venus will be much easier to see. This alignment of the planets hasn't happened in more than a decade, so if you get a chance on a morning with clear skies, might be worth checking out. 

Measurable snow possible soon

Welcome to Tuesday and as we continue through this active week of weather, the chances for accumulating snow look to be on the increase. The storm system that is moving through today is not going to be around for very long and it's moisture supply is quite limited.

Today:
Chances for light snow and flurries across much of central and eastern Kansas. A few inches of snow will be possible around Topeka and Kansas City, but unlikely to be much more than that.

Storm System #2 (Wed. Night - Thursday)
The computer model data continues to show a storm arriving for the middle of the week. It's coming from the northwest and when they approach from that direction, we often don't get big snows. We don't expect this to be a major winter system, but it could be the first 1 inch of snow for the winter season in several areas.

For Wednesday night - Thursday

Wednesday night - Thursday

Take a look at two different computer models that we use in the forecast center. (click on any image to see it in a larger format) Both of them are pointing toward central and southern Kansas getting the heavier amounts of snow. In most cases, it looks like it will be on the order of 1-4 inches, which is enough to cause some snowpacked and icy roads. While the track of the storm can still change some, the real question will be how much available moisture will be around when the system gets here. Be sure to check in with us later this evening to see how this storm is progressing. For those that have been asking and begging for snow, you just might get your wish before the week is over.

Two storms coming this week

Courtesy Karen - Ellis County

Good Monday morning everyone. What a cold day yesterday with highs in the teens and wind chills down in the single digits. I'd say most of the comments on Facebook suggest that many are ready for spring. But I still see a few popping up that want some snow before spring's arrival. 

First off, this will be a rather chilly week. And to go along with the chill, there are two different storms that will be coming through. Most of the winter has been very active with one system right after another. 

Tuesday:

First system of the week arrives. The moisture supply is limited and it's moving fairly quickly, so don't expect much out of it. There is a chance we could see some very light drizzle late Tuesday morning or early afternoon, but it will quickly change to some light snow flurries. Best chance for any measurable snowfall will be closer to KC and northern Missouri. But even in those areas, it only looks like maybe 1-3 inches.

Thursday:

The second storm will arrive with chances for some light snow in Kansas. This system is tracking farther south and west, so it's impact on Kansas will be limited. However, there is a good chance some light snow may fall early Thursday before the storm gets too far south and we end up dry by Thursday evening.

Then we will focus on a warming trend into next weekend. After two, back-to-back weekends of Arctic air, we see some 50s returning by Saturday or Sunday and it should be dry too. 

Brief break from the Arctic... and potential storm brewing next week

From Saint Joseph, MI

The weather will be going through some big changes in the coming days. We've been on the edge of Arctic air for most of the week. Highs in the single digits have been common across Iowa, Minnesota, and Illinois. But thanks to a southwest wind today and sunshine, we are headed back into the 50s. We could call this a January thaw, but the fact of the matter is, it really hasn't been that cold for very long this winter. 

The storm track this week has been coming from the north, which is usually a dry pattern for Kansas. Even with all of the temperature swings we will see for the rest of the week, there's very little chance for any significant moisture. 

Another blast of cold air will be settling south into the weekend. It may not be as cold this weekend compared to last weekend, but it's still going to get your attention. And wind chills Sunday morning will be single digits (and even below zero across northern Kansas)

I'm still getting a lot of questions about snow this winter. Will we have any decent snow storms? It has been a very wet winter for Kansas, but not very white. The next potential snow producing storm could arrive late next week. January 21st (next Thursday) is the date we have locked in on for a potential winter storm. It's too early to know many details, but let's keep an eye on what develops in the west coming up later this weekend. As soon as the storm forms, we learn a lot more about it's potential. Details to come. 

Several big temperature swings this week

courtesy Karen - taken Sunday morning near Antonino (Ellis County)

Good Monday morning. Our second full week of January will be marked by lots of ups and downs in temperatures. Our first blast of Arctic air will linger over the upper Midwest for a few more days before it finally pulls far enough east to not impact Kansas weather. 

Today:

Temperatures will warm some today - highs mainly in the 40s. 

Tuesday:

Some colder air arrives and the temperatures will drop about 5-8 degrees. But it stays dry and the winds will back down (so wind chills won't be a huge issue)

Midweek:

The pattern is expected to change during the middle of the week. Milder air is going to push back into the central Plains by Wednesday/Thursday. There is a good chance most of the state will get back to around 50 degrees. 

Next weekend, we will be on Arctic air watch once again. There is a strong possibility that much colder air will slide south out of Canada once again. Highs will likely drop into the 20s by next Saturday. Welcome to January!! There won't be much chance for rain or snow this week as any storm system that approaches will likely be starved of moisture. 

One storm today... next one tomorrow

We are still expecting the stormy pattern will continue over much of the central and southern US. One storm system in the Plains today will continue to generate some rain showers around the area with some light snow expected in far western Kansas.

courtesy National Weather Service Hansford - this is from Sentinel Dome webcam

If you take a look at this mornings regional radar view, you can see one system over Oklahoma. The next one is coming from California. They have been blasted with flooding rainfall. Getting too much of a good thing all at one time. It's been dumping heavy snowfall in the Sierras. What an amazing turn around from the last couple of winter seasons. As that system moves east, it will weaken some and become less organized. So even though it will have an impact on Kansas weather, it shouldn't be anything all that significant.

Light snow is still expected Friday through early Saturday. Latest forecast data is still suggesting snowfall will be under an inch for most of the state. A few isolated 2 or 3 inch amounts look to set up in western Kansas, but those will be few and far between.

And get ready for a COLD weekend. Saturday will have highs in the 20s with wind chills down in the teens for much of the day.

Rain, snow, Arctic air... here we go!

satellite shows several storms lined up for the west

Hope everyone is having a good week so far. The weather has turned active on us once again and we will have more storm systems coming in from the west. Although the storms and the flooding is expected to be pretty significant for those on the west coast, they will not be all that intense for Kansas.

 

First things first. We have a chance for some rain showers on Thursday. This is not going to be a major rain producer for the Plains. Amounts will likely be under 0.25" even though our computer model is painting slightly higher totals. We won't have to worry about flooding as this system just isn't that strong and won't be around for very long.

Another system is coming in Friday-Saturday and with colder air sliding south, we should prepare for some light snow. It will begin in western Kansas Thursday night/early Friday, and then spread south and east Friday night/early Saturday. Snowfall amounts are likely to end up between 1-3 inches the way things are looking right now. This isn't a forecast that's going to change a whole bunch in the next few days. 

Get ready for a cold, Arctic blast this weekend. The coldest air of the season will be sliding south and impacting much of the Plains Saturday/Sunday. Highs in the teens and 20 are likely for Sunday. It only last for a few days, and then early next week, it begins to warm back up.

We don't often think of Texas as being snowier than Kansas, but it sure has this winter. Because of the very active southern storm track, both Amarillo and Lubbock have had more snow than most of central and eastern Kansas. There's still plenty of winter to go, but so many of our storms continue to be wet and not white.

Pattern changes & look out... Arctic air looming!

courtesy Terry White - Nickerson - looking at high, thin cirrus clouds from Sunday afternoon

Happy New Year and welcome to 2016. We were lucky to have a very quiet holiday weekend, but changes will be showing up very soon. Although it's unlikely we will have a major storm in the next 8-10 days, we do have several systems lined up and ready to move toward Kansas.

The first system that will impact the area arrives Tuesday night/early Wednesday. It will bring a bunch of clouds and some areas of drizzle, especially to central and eastern Kansas. 

The second system should push into the area Wednesday night/Thursday and it will likely be a little stronger. Chances for drizzle/light rain will increase for most of the state. We've had some BIG rain making storms this winter, but this one won't likely produce much more than about .25" (if we even get that)

Heads Up!! The Arctic Oscillation is dropping into the negative, which could indicate an Arctic outbreak coming soon. Forecast models are hinting at it for early next week. If it does happen, we could end up with a few days with highs in the teens/20s. We will be watching to see if this comes together for Kansas.