Historic February temperatures & a big shift in the weather pattern coming

Good Monday morning! This has been a VERY warm month of February, so it's not surprise that we are looking to move into 7th place when it comes to warmest February temperatures on record. Check this out:

Highs in the 20s: None

Highs in the 30s: None

Highs in the 40s: 8 

Highs in the 50s: 10

Highs in the 60s: 3

Highs in the 70s: 7

When you add up all of the highs and lows and figure the average, it will likely end up being right around 44. We will look ahead to March averages and stats coming up tomorrow. And look how much of the country is seeing above normal temperatures. The colder air is stuck up around the Great Lakes and there's very little indication of it dislodging and coming south. 

We do have an active week of weather coming up for Kansas, but the storms aren't very strong AND the track isn't favorable for them to be all that significant around here. Storm systems need to dive south and come across the southern Rockies for them to have much of a chance at producing more than just a trace of moisture in Kansas. That may not happen until next week.

The first system of the week is coming right over the Rockies and will encounter some moisture south and east of us. Look where the majority of the rain goes into early Tuesday. It's not a lot, but some areas could see up to .50"

Next week, our pattern begins to shift back to more of a southwest flow aloft, and that should eventually increase our chances for precipitation. It's not likely going to be snow considering how much warm weather will be hanging around, but the finer details will get figured out later this week.

Update on rain chances next week

Just a quick update as we head into a very warm, dry, windy weekend. We still have a storm system coming at us for next week. It should arrive on Tuesday, but the track of the storm is not looking very favorable for moisture in Kansas.

If the track of the storm comes right over the central Rockies (which is looking more likely now), Kansas isn't going to see much moisture. We need the storm to drop much farther south than what is showing up on the computer models now. If it doesn't go south first, it doesn't get a chance to ingest Gulf moisture. 

Take a look at the latest model projections for rainfall next Tuesday.

There could be some MAJOR wind with this Tuesday storm. Gusts over 50 mph look possible. Sure seems like we've had our fair share of wind lately, but there's even more coming next week.

Spring-like weekend ahead - then a storm arrives

Feels good to have made it to Thursday and we are having one of the chilliest days we've had in nearly two weeks. But much warmer weather is on the way for the weekend. Look at the 60s we will see on Friday.

And Saturday is even warmer! Probably no record highs this weekend, but it's nearly 25 degrees above average. 

So the storm that is coming in for next week still presents some questions as to the track it will take and how much moisture will be around to work with. The good news is that both models that our forecasts are based primarily on still indicate measurable moisture for a big chunk of Kansas. While there could be enough cold air for some snow in western Kansas by Tuesday night, this is not looking to be a big snow maker at all and very unlikely that this will be some historic March storm. Some thunder will be heard where the rainfall is heavier (south central and eastern Kansas), but the likelihood of severe storms is also quite low.

GFS Model - Tuesday/Wednesday

European Model - Tuesday/Wednesday

We've had some rather dry stretches of weather the last couple of months, so a little moisture would be mighty helpful as spring draws closer. Updates to come!

Tornadoes/Severe weather season - and improvements to our weather channel

Look for the tornado debris signature

What an incredible day of severe weather yesterday (Tuesday). There were 31 tornado reports across 5 different states, and unfortunately, three fatalities. There were several tornadoes in Louisiana and if you look at the radar from 4:21 p.m. Tuesday, you can even see the tornado debris signature just west of Lake Pontchartrain. At one point, there were three waterspouts happening at the same time. I received this question from a viewer: 

I was wondering, does a water spout as it hits land and becomes a Tornado does it increase or decrease it's intensity because of the different temp of the water mass vs land mass. I know they talk about hurricanes loosing intensity as they come inland

The answer is yes! Waterspouts that move from the water to land DO become tornadoes and can increase in intensity. In fact, many of them do get stronger, which is just the opposite of hurricanes after reaching land. Those weaken as they move off the warmer water. 

Mobile home park in Convent, LA - photo courtesy FOX8NOLA

Assumption Parish - courtesy @ayee_its_erinn

We will likely find out the strength of the tornadoes today (Wednesday) as the damage crews go in and assign an EF number. Looks to me like some of the damage will be at least EF3 or maybe even EF4. 

It's not out of season for February tornadoes in the south. Take a look at the series of maps. Storm season ramps up along the Gulf Coast first, and then a month from now, it begins to shift farther west and north, reaching Kansas for April and May. We consider the month of April, May, AND June as the peak season in the Plains. Of course, severe weather can happen anytime.

We are excited to announce some changes are coming to our Always On Storm Team 12 weather channel on March 7th. This is an excellent source of weather information whenever you need it, and now the channel is getting a face-lift and we are incorporating some of the suggestions passed along to us over the years. 

What's Different?

1) Bigger radar picture on the left side

2) No longer having to wait until 2-3 a.m. for the days of the week to change. It will happen at midnight.

3) More information coming through the bigger screen more frequently

4) Matching Future Track data from what we show on KWCH to what you'll see on Always On

5) Fresh look and new music!!

Going beyond windy & looking into early March

courtesy Mark Greene - Kanopolis Lake

Good Monday morning. What an incredible weekend of weather with highs in the 70s Saturday and even though it cooled off Sunday, it was still above normal for the end of February. Through the end of last week, our average temperature was above 38 degrees, making this the 5th warmest winter on record (for Wichita). The lack of snow is going to make this the 3rd lowest snowfall on record. The months of December, January, and February are considered meteorological winter, and during that time, some areas haven't even had 1 inch of snow. I haven't even touched my snow shovel this season. Just crazy! 

So where are we headed for the next few weeks? Most of the active weather this week will be south and east of Kansas. Our weather certainly cools off compared to last week. The big buckle in the weather pattern (jet stream) over the eastern half of the US will keep us out of record warmth. We also won't get much moisture with this kind of setup.

One of the indicators we look at is the Arctic Oscillation. And it's dipping negative into the start of March. This means we will likely see some colder air continuing to slide south out of Canada and the Arctic regions, but even if we do, it's unlikely to last for very long (probably not much more than just a few days at a time) Into the weekend (and the start of March), some bitterly cold air will be gathering up around the Great Lakes and trying to push south. Even with Arctic air nearby, it's probably not going to be that cold. Highs may drop into the 40s for a few days, but the core of the bitter cold is very likely going to stay east of us. Unfortunately for moisture, there isn't much of that coming our way for the next 8-10 days. 

While Kansas was dealing with wind gusts over 50 mph last Thursday, look what happened in the Rockies. Monarch Pass, located about 160 miles southwest of Denver, recorded a wind gust of 148 mph. It happened around 7:30 p.m. MST when the weather station reported thunder and snow. Just 700 feet below the mountain on Highway 50, Colorado Department of Transportation had a weather station that measured winds out of the north at just 32 mph. It's easier for the wind to gust to such strength at higher altitudes because you don't have anything to slow the wind down (friction). The 148 mile per hour wind gust is one of the strongest measured in Colorado. 

Smoke seen from space & changes coming next week

What is up with our weather right now? This is just absolutely crazy. I will say that there is NO connection between hitting 80 in February and a long hot summer. Several concerns were raised yesterday of the potential at seeing another very warm spring and a long, hot summer. It is so RARE to get into the 80s in February, let alone, see 90s like Great Bend and Hays. We ended up with a dozen record highs and 2 ties. Unbelievable!!

courtesy Buck King - fire near Buffalo, OK

Luckily, with such warm weather AND wind Thursday, grass fires were at a minimum in Kansas. It was a different story in surrounding states. One very large fire developed in northwest Oklahoma and the smoke plume came right over south central Kansas. There were a bunch of fires in eastern Oklahoma, with those smoke plumes also visible from outer space. It takes a pretty large fire for it to be seen from 20,000+ miles above Earth. Smaller fires are quite visible from Dopper Radar. That huge smoke plume from the fire just north of Buffalo, OK showed up very well on the Wichita radar Thursday evening. 

NEXT WEEK: The pattern will change and there will not be record highs! It cools off quite a bit, but the Arctic air looks to remain around the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest. So our temperatures will be closer to normal for late February. When it comes to moisture, there is a chance on Tuesday as a weak system slides in from the northern Rockies. It's not going to have a ton of moisture, and it's unlikely for it to produce much more than some light rain showers or a few flurries. I do see signs of stronger storms hitting the West into early March and making it into the Plains. Details are unclear, but it's beginning to look like our quiet stretch of weather may end pretty soon. 

Record warmth - crazy winds - next chance for moisture

courtesy Scott Jonker

As I write this blog entry this morning, I'm constantly reminding myself that it's FEBRUARY and not April or May. Like many of you, I can't believe we are going to see so many 80s on Thursday. It's the right setup for a HUGE warmup, with dry air in place, the jet stream back to the north of Kansas, and a ton of sunshine. I think we will have at least 10-12 record high temperatures tied or broken.

The danger on Thursday will be wind and fire. It looks like we could have a repeat of last week when the wind gusts were over 50 mph. Strongest wind speeds will be over central and eastern Kansas. It wouldn't be a surprise at all to see wind gusts approach 50, and with the dry grass and low humidity values, fires could get going and burn out of control quickly.

Some of you are asking about our next possible chance for moisture. The long range models are not indicating any big storms for right now. We could be looking at some light precipitation early next week in western Kansas, but it won't amount to very much. I do expect our weather to get more active heading into early March. We will have chances for rain and snow, but the way I see it right now is our chance for seeing additional Arctic blasts is quite low for Kansas and surrounding areas.

Incredible warmth & how wet/dry are things in Kansas?

Good Monday morning! This is just going to be an incredible week of weather in Kansas. The calendar says the middle of February but it's going to feel more like April or May later in the week. How does it get so warm at this time of the year?

The storm track will setup just north of Kansas and strong southwest winds will be pushing in the warm air. Lower humidity values will also allow the temperatures to warm very quickly. Most record highs for Thursday are in the mid 70s, so they shouldn't be too hard to tie or break. I would expect at least 8-10 record setting temperatures by the end of the day.

How are we doing on moisture? I've had several people ask me about drought and the need for moisture. There are some areas of the state that still need some moisture, and after this latest dry stretch, the need will grow even more. However, we aren't in terrible shape right now. We've actually had a wet winter (even though not very snowy for many areas). Take a look at the precipitation amounts since October 1st. Almost every major reporting station is above average (some more than others)  The vegetation is not a good measure of the drought index right now because it's still very much winter and things won't start greening up for about another month.

Wichita  8.21 /  +1.39

Russell   6.15 /  +1.70

Dodge City   8.21  /  +3.95

Goodland   3.60  /  +.45

Salina   7.69  /  +2.03

Spring severe weather season isn't far off. The very first storm spotter meeting is scheduled for Wednesday of this week. Can you believe that season is almost here again? I'll update you on El Nino and we will have some discussions about severe weather season coming very soon. 

Still some snow left & record watch next week

Our weather just seems so out of whack lately it's not even funny. Just last week, we had a blizzard that dumped over a foot of snow on NW Kansas. And here we are just over a week later with highs around 80 in southern Kansas. The satellite picture from yesterday afternoon shows where snow remains on the ground. Most of it has melted south of I-70, but we still have a way to go up around Colby, Atwood, Goodland, and Phillipsburg (just to name a few)

Colder air is surging south, so it's going to feel more like February from now through the weekend. We continue to be on the western edge of some really COLD air that continues to surge south. The Northeast is going to get blasted with some of the coldest air in years. Our weather looks pretty chilly, but nothing unusual for this time of the year. Saturday still looks to be the coldest day with highs in the 30s and low 40s.

Thursday morning

Spring Fever Warning!!
Next week, spring weather will return. We are looking at some VERY warm air that will spread in from the south and west. The warmup starts kicking in by Tuesday, but becomes much more pronounced by Wednesday and especially Thursday. Expect 60s and 70s Wednesday. Thursday is setting up to potentially break records. I wouldn't not be shocked to see some 80s Thursday afternoon as strong southwest winds continue to pump the warm air in. We are still roughly a month away from the official start to spring, but sometimes the calendar and Mother Nature are just out of sync. There's a good chance some of your co-workers may go missing to get outside and enjoy the nice weather.

Time is running out to view...

The latest astronomy special. You'll have until roughly Saturday to view the 5 planets lined up on the southern horizon. Best time to look is about 30 minutes to an hour before sunrise. The sun is coming up about 7:30 a.m., so I would be out looking around 6:30. I know getting out of bed early is a challenge. Mercury is the lowest planet on the horizon, so you'll have to get to an open area to see it. Venus is in the second spot from the horizon, followed by Saturn, Mars, and then Jupiter. Use the attached photo to help with your search. The good news... if you miss this latest parade of planets, they will be back for another show in early August, only for the next go around, it will be in the southwest sky just after sunset.

Based on the comments I've been getting on Facebook and Twitter, some of you still want snow! And everybody else wishes spring would be here for good today. It's not looking good at all for snow lovers. The pattern is going to favor more mild days than colder ones. Kansas continues to be on the dividing line with Arctic air east of us and warmer weather to the west. It's a battle that will continue for at least another 4-5 days. The warm days this week won't set any records, and the cold days won't be anything unusual for February. But it will be interesting to watch the swings happen each and every day.

There is a chance for drizzle Sunday morning for Valentines Day, but that's about the only chance at moisture that we really have in the near future. 

Late this week

SPRING ALERT - Next week, the pattern will favor WELL ABOVE normal temperatures for Kansas. In fact, there's a chance some areas just to our south will get close to 80 degrees (yes... in the month of February of all times) We are going to see an area of high pressure slide across the middle of the country around Wednesday/Thursday. That's going to allow the warmth to become widespread and possibly set records. A developing storm on the west coast late next week could bring moisture back to Kansas, but it's still easily 12-14 days off. 

Next week

Wind and more wind - pattern this week is interesting

Happy Monday everybody. Did everybody enjoy the Super Bowl or did you watch for the commercials? I only caught about 30% of the game and commercials because of work, but I thought the Doritos spot with the baby was pretty good.

On to weather now and you should be ready for some very windy conditions the next couple of days. We had a handful of grass fires to cover Sunday afternoon and I'm sure there will be a few more coming up today and Tuesday. Wind gusts will likely exceed 40 today and 30 on Tuesday. The wind already causing some tree damage in Kansas City. This picture courtesy of KMBC-Channel 9.

We don't have any big storm systems coming through this week. Expect it to stay dry through at least Saturday as a HUGE high pressure system builds up across the western half of the country. It will be very interesting because Kansas will be on the dividing line between much colder air just east of us and springlike weather to the west.

The weather should get active again in just another few weeks. Winter isn't over yet, and we will have some more chances for snow coming before springtime sets in for good.

One storm Friday, then changes coming late weekend

As northern Kansas continues to dig out from the Groundhog Day blizzard, we are turning our attention to a changing weather pattern. We are likely going to see some big swings in temperatures and a lot of wind, BUT the next 10-15 days will likely be free of any big storm systems.

One storm system will arrive Friday, but it doesn't produce much more than some clouds and a sprinkle or flurry.

Saturday is looking nice and quiet with sunshine and warming temperatures into the 40s and 50s (snow on the ground will make some areas of northern Kansas a little chillier)

Windy! Windy! Windy! A strong cold front will move through Sunday morning, and behind it, expect northwest winds to gust between 30 and 40 mph. And it's not just Sunday, but we will likely have windy weather all the way through Tuesday. You will also want to be prepared for some colder air to slide south at the start of next week. We will be on the western edge of the bitter cold, Arctic air for Monday/Tuesday, but it still looks like we may have 2 or 3 days with highs only in the 30s.

Notice all of the warm weather building up west of the Rockies! That mild weather will push back into Kansas during the second half of next week. So get ready for a wild ride in temperatures over the next 8-10 days.