Wednesday Severe Weather Update

There's still a good chance for some parts of Kansas to see severe weather today (Wednesday)

We are watching dry air in western Kansas that will be surging east throughout the day. When the dry air clashes with the warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico, we expect there will be scattered storms popping up, especially east of I-135.

Take a look at the dew points in Kansas at noon. Remember, dew point is the best measure of how much moisture is in the air. When it comes to severe weather, we really need to have at least 50 degree dew points. Dew points that get into the 60s suggest you have more than enough moisture to generate severe storms. Highest dew points will reside over eastern Kansas and by 3 p.m., those numbers start dropping around Wichita. So we are pretty confident that storms will begin developing around 3 or 4 p.m., and it won't take long for the threat to push farther east. In fact, by 7 p.m., there's a good chance all of the weather will be out of our viewing area and into far eastern Kansas. 

Future radar has the storms developing around 3/4 p.m. They will move east at roughly 30-40 mph. Anybody across eastern Kansas should be prepared for severe storms today. It's springtime in Kansas, right?

Wind, storms, & a forecast through mid April

This month of March has been a very windy one across Kansas. I shared some of these numbers last night on the late newscasts because some of you have been asking about the wind. March, on average, is one of our windier months because the weather is in transition and the storm systems that cross the US are much stronger right now (and will be for the next few months)

More wind is expected today (Tuesday), but what might help keep the fire danger down some is the higher humidity that continues to flow up from the Gulf of Mexico. The moisture flowing north will lead to more clouds, some drizzle, and eventually, chances for storms over eastern Kansas. It's unfortunate that with so much moisture moving our way there won't be more rain, but the setup isn't looking favorable.

Severe Threat:

The severe threat for Wednesday still looks to favor the Flint Hills and areas to the east. You can see in the map above that by 1 p.m. Wednesday, the highest energy in the atmosphere for severe storms will be east of I-135. Hail (up to 2 inches) and wind gusts (to 70 mph) seem possible over eastern Kansas.

Week of April 4: Another storm will be pushing in from the west coast early in the week. This storm is likely to stall over the western part of the US at the beginning of the week. It's not likely going to be a big moisture producer for Kansas. I do expect warmer than normal temperatures for the first week of the month and more wind coming our way too.

Week of April 11: There is a chance for a storm to drop into the desert Southwest at the beginning of this particular week. In this case, Kansas would be looking at chances for showers and storms to increase. And this storm could be a slow moving system too. 

It's not looking like there will be a ton of rain in April. Drier than normal weather is likely to continue for the upcoming month. I hope I'm wrong by saying that, but in looking at the long range setup, there just doesn't seem to be any really good setups for widespread, soaking rains.

Wind and some severe weather this week

Did you see snow this weekend? How much rain did you get? The fast moving storm system dumped some very nice moisture over the southern part of the state, and it landed in places that have desperately needed it. In typical March fashion, the snow didn't last more than about 6 hours. It was a heavy, sloppy snow that had some very good moisture content to it. When the temperatures are close to freezing, we use a 10:1 ratio (so 10 inches of snow would equal 1 inch of actual rainfall). Sundays snow was good for snowball making and we had TONS of snowmen turned Easter bunnies showing up in our picture folder.

A very large storm system developing across the west is responsible for the windy weather we will see this week. Only a part of this storm will impact Kansas. A piece of it will break off and move toward us Wednesday. There is a good chance that warm, moist air returning to the Plains will lead to some severe weather over eastern Kansas and into Missouri. This is not going to be a big rainfall producer for our area. Once again, we just aren't in the right spot for this thing to open the skies and dumped the needed moisture in our state. One of the biggest problems is that the main upper low hangs back over the southwest and never makes a push across the Kansas.

The overall weather pattern heading into the first half of April still looks very active. We will go into more detail this week here on the blog as we get ready to officially enter severe weather season (we consider that April, May, and at least the first half of June)

Two storms coming - rainfall soon - possible severe weather?

Good Friday everyone! This has just been a crazy week in Kansas with the fires and the near blizzard conditions across the northwest. We definitely need moisture and some of us will have a chance beginning as early as tonight. 

 

First Chance: Moisture coming in ahead of a cold front tonight/early Saturday should lead to some rain from southwest into central and eastern Kansas. A few areas could get more than .25", but for most, it will likely be less than that.

Second Chance: Another storm system (the one that we've talked about most of the week) will track across northern Oklahoma. It is a fast moving system, but south central and southeast Kansas will have the better chances for the measurable rain. 

Next Week - Wind Alert: A big storm system coming into the western US will create more windy days. It's a little weird how similar the weather next week will be compared to this week. The wind starts to pick up Monday afternoon and a very windy day is in store Tuesday. We will still have wind on Wednesday as the next cold front approaches too. We are looking at the potential for scattered storms, which could develop Tuesday night over central and eastern Kansas, but the better chance will come Wednesday evening. Some hail and wind look possible going into Wednesday evening, but a big severe weather episode isn't likely at this time.

Wind, snow, and more stormy weather on the horizon

We still expect some snow to fall over northwest Kansas throughout the afternoon. Very strong winds are likely statewide. What does it mean to be in a High Wind Warning? Gusts over 50 mph are possible in areas included in the warning. This will be the peak of the wind, and it will start going down Thursday. We do see the wind picking back up Friday in advance of storm #2 that will arrive this holiday weekend.

Storm #2:

Expected to move in Saturday afternoon/Easter Sunday. This storm will not be a major snow producer, but we do expect to see some beneficial rainfall developing into Saturday evening and night. The best chance for seeing snow will be west of a line from Beloit, to Great Bend, to Pratt. Any snow that does fall Saturday night should be light. Rainfall amounts of .50" look possible in south central and eastern Kansas, and much of the precipitation will be moving out of the area by Sunday afternoon.

Storm #3:

Developing early next week, this system will be slow to move and it's not clear when it will arrive in Kansas. However, it will bring stronger winds to the area by Tuesday. Some forecast models show that by Wednesday/Thursday, we could have chances for thunderstorms returning to central and eastern Kansas. This doesn't look like a major severe weather event, but indications are hail and wind producing storms may develop out of this big system approaching from the west. 

Series of storms arriving soon & a partial lunar eclipse

This crazy week of weather in Kansas continues with wind, record highs, rain, snow, and a chance to see a partial lunar eclipse. Well, the lunar eclipse isn't really weather related, but it's fun to share here on the blog. It's just a partial eclipse, so if you can't see it due to clouds, you won't be missing much.

What the moon will look like when it reaches its maximum eclipse

It starts at 4:39 a.m. Wednesday, reaches it's maximum eclipse at 6:47 a.m., and will end after the moon sets for the day. What will it look like? Here's an example. It's not the blood red moon that we saw last year (like 3 different times), but the moon will darken some early Wednesday. It's basically just passing through the edge of the Earth's shadow.

Update on Storm #1:

The track is still favored over northern Kansas. This will keep more significant moisture across northwest Kansas. There could be some accumulation of snow along the Nebraska state line, but like last week (on Friday), any snow that falls won't be around for too long as the ground has already been warming up.

Storm Track #2:
This track looks to be farther south. Forecast models show the system coming in for Easter weekend, but the timing has changed a little. It's looking like our better chances for rain and snow will begin late Saturday night and continue Sunday. This storm hasn't formed yet, so we still expect some changes in the overall forecast. But confidence is growing that much of the state should get some kind of moisture over the holiday weekend.

Colder air will be sliding in behind the Easter weekend storm system. It won't be around for very long, but you can see that by Saturday, there is some pretty chilly air sliding down the Rockies.

Two storms coming our way this week!!

Welcome to Monday and our first full week of spring. This will be an interesting week as we watch 2 different storms move across the Plains. Kansas has time and time again been on the edge of EVERYTHING this winter season, with so many storms either staying too far south or just passing north of us. The drought situation isn't terrible right now, but we need some of these spring storms to deliver moisture. 

Storm #1:

Arriving Wednesday/Wednesday night - tracking across northern Kansas will place the best chances for measurable moisture north of I-70. Most of this will be rain, but forecast models coming in this morning indicate that some 1-3" snow amounts could show up on grassy surfaces. Everyone will have wind and cooling temperatures by midweek.

Storm #2:

Looks like we will have a storm coming through around Easter weekend. The timing and track isn't set right now because the storm hasn't formed yet, but it looks to come from the northwest (developing in SW Canada). Storms that approach from the northwest generally don't produce a lot of precipitation for Kansas. Unless this storm can dive into the southwest US, organize, and then push into the Plains, we won't get very much moisture out of this particular storm either. Latest trends suggest this storm could be a fast mover too and leave Kansas on the short end of the moisture. It will definitely be cold enough for some snow across western Kansas, but we don't know the track yet so we can't make any predictions on amounts. 

Storm #3:

Looking ahead to next week (week of March 28th) - potential is out there for another big storm to drop into the west. Could this be our first decent shot at severe thunderstorms in the Plains? Some forecast models are hinting at that, so be sure to check back for updates!

Hidden tools in the Storm Team 12 app

It's our final day of Severe Weather Awareness Week. As we get ready to head into severe weather season, please make sure you have a way of getting important alerts. Most of us have very busy schedules and can't be around the TV as often as we'd like during stormy weather. So the app comes in handy for those on the go.

Unfortunately, our weather app is only available for Android and Apple devices. So if you have a Windows phone, the following information won't be very helpful.

When you open the app, it comes to this home screen, and some of the buttons you want to be aware of are highlighted with the arrow.

#1 - This button will allow you to change your home location and other settings. If you plan to travel, you'll mostly likely want to change your location to "Use Current Location" so that the app will follow you on your trip. If you end up in watch or warning, the app will notify you.

#2 - An extremely useful tool when we have stormy weather in the forecast. In addition to radar data, you have options for satellite, snow cover, water temperatures, tropical weather, and storm tracking information.

#3 - When you want to see future radar (especially when storms are forecast), try using this option to see our "FutureTrack" right there on your phone.

     

Please don't rely on Facebook to get watch and warning notifications. In many cases, you may not see important information until minutes or hours later. Twitter can be a useful tool for getting weather information, but even it shouldn't be your first source for severe weather watches and warnings.

How crazy is the weather change today?! This is the coldest day since February 25th when we had some highs in the 40s. It's been an unbelievable stretch of warm weather and our flowers and trees are blooming. But this cold weather will certainly set some things back. Our coldest night should be Saturday night/Sunday morning and then we will begin a warming trend into the beginning of next week.

Flooding & a shifting weather pattern next week

Central Riverside Park - courtesy Jim Reed - Halloween Flood 1998

Cowskin Creek - Halloween Flood 1998

Most of us underestimate the power of water and because of that, flooding is the number one cause of weather fatalities (yes, even more than tornadoes) There is such tremendous force behind fast moving water that it doesn't take much to sweep some people off their feet. And even though our vehicles are quite heavy, just 18-24" of water can float many vehicles. Most flooding fatalities occur while people are driving (and usually at night because it's even more difficult to gauge how deep the water really is)

Do you know the difference between flood and flash flood?

Flood Watch/Warning is something that generally occurs over a long period of time (sometimes days or even weeks)

Flash Flood Watch/Warning means flooding usually happens within 6 hours of the main storm event. 

They are both very dangerous, but with flash flooding, you don't have much time to react. So if one is issued for your area, be sure to pay very close attention to what's going on.

We don't have any major weather systems coming in for the next 5-6 days (perhaps even longer)

After the cold snap into the weekend, a bigger change is scheduled for early next week. Another storm will slam the west coast Monday/Tuesday and that will move into the Plains midweek. Right now, it doesn't look to produce any widespread rains. There are some possibilities for moisture at the end of the week, but we will need more time to look over all of the data.

Happy St Patrick's Day!!

Understanding lightning bolts - Severe Weather Awareness

Lightning in KS taken by Haley Habiger

Lightning is still one of the most fascinating features of weather and the 2nd leading cause of death from weather events. There's no way to forecast where lightning will strike, but generally speaking, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck. And when you consider that lightning is actually 5 times hotter than the sun, you don't want to put yourself in a position to be hit. 

So what causes lightning? There is a buildup of charges in the cloud and with objects on the ground, and in order to equalize them, lightning has to happen. Air is such a poor conductor of electricity that when a lightning bolt happens, the air immediately surrounding it heats up VERY quickly. The expanding air around the bolt is what we eventually hear as thunder. Generally speaking, if you are more than 10 miles from a lightning bolt, you don't normally hear the thunder.

On average, who has the most lightning? 

Florida typically has the most because of their year-round warm season. Kansas isn't far behind though with roughly 50-60 thunderstorm days a year.

Tornado safety day & winter... not done with us yet

EF-1 tornado just northwest of Dayton, OH on Monday

Severe Weather Awareness Week continues and today is the day we focus on tornadoes. Sirens will sound at 6:30 for most of the state. That is a change from previous years when the sirens would sound at 1 p.m. in the afternoon. The change in time was to allow families a chance to practice at home instead of at work or at school. Most of the time, the tornado drill does not happen during spring break, but that's how it all lined up this year.

When it comes to tornado safety, think "DUCK". Sounds funny, but the letters each represent something very important when it comes to saving your life during tornadoes. Most of us know what to do when we are at home, but what do you do when caught in your vehicle? An apartment several stories off the ground?

In your vehicle: new research suggests you can try to ride out a tornado in your car if you buckle the seat belt and duck below the windows. If the option is there, you can try to drive at a 90 degree angle from the tornado to get out of its path. In extreme situations, you can also get down into a ditch to protect yourself from flying debris.

In an apartment: If you live in an apartment that is several stories high, it is suggested that you try to get to lower levels if possible. If time isn't on your side, get into a small closet or bathroom to ride out the storm.

On average, which states have the most tornadoes?
This map may surprise you, but Kansas ranks 2nd. Our 65 year average is 60-70 tornadoes per year with the 10 year average closer to 100.

Late Week Cold Snap:
We still have some colder weather headed to Kansas at the end of the week. Based on new model trends, it's looking less and less likely that we will have much more than a sprinkle or flurry on Friday. The storm system is approaching from the northwest, and that is not a favorable direction for storms to move in and produce any heavy precipitation. But, it still looks rather chilly and there are a couple of mornings where temperatures will fall into the 20s.

Warm, cold, snow & Severe Weather Awareness!!

Good Monday morning. It was nice to see SOME rain this weekend, even though we need more and we need it to cover more areas. So much going on this week with spring break underway for students and a lot of focus on basketball. This is also Severe Weather Awareness week for Kansas as we take time to get ready for the season ahead. This raises the question, what kind of season are we going to have? We will go into that later in the week.

Let's focus on what's going to be happening this week. BIG changes are going to catch some by surprise as colder weather makes a swift comeback to Kansas. It will be a gradual cool down throughout the week and by Friday, it should be cold enough for some snow. 

Take a look at the maps. The late-week storm will be coming down the Rockies by Thursday/Friday time frame. Because this system approaches from the northwest, it's not likely to be a major storm. But it should have enough moisture to work with that some rain and snow is expected to return to the plains by Friday.

You can see the colder air on the forecast models by Friday. The colder temperatures are following the storm track down the Rockies with highs mainly in the 30s and 40s. March cold snaps don't last as long, and this one won't either. In fact, by the end of the weekend (Sunday, March 20), we should be back to near 60.

As part of Severe Weather Awareness Week... who sees more thunderstorms, Kansas or Florida? The answer may surprise you, but it's actually Florida. We average about 50-60 stormy days in Kansas, while Florida can have 90-100. Because they are usually warm year-round, they get thunder almost anytime of the year. In Kansas, there are about 3 months out of the year where we don't get many thunderstorms.

Changes for Spring Break & tornado sirens sounding soon

Good Friday morning. It's an exciting time for some of you as you get ready to go on spring break. The weather is going to be changing, and they could be rather significant changes by the second half of the week. We don't have any big winter storms coming, but temperatures may actually go below normal for a change, which hasn't happened in over 2 weeks. 

Look at the big pocket of warm air at the start of the week. Highs will be well into the 70s and even some 80s are in the forecast Monday afternoon. But look back to the northwest and you can see the cooler air. 

By Wednesday, the cooler air is pushing across the central and northern Plains. It's not going to be coming with any chance for moisture (at least in Kansas), but we will have some wind and afternoon highs will slip back to the 50s and 60s by midweek.

Then late in the week, much cooler air will slide south. Highs will likely fall below normal by Thursday and Friday. Low temperatures will be headed down into the 20s for most of Kansas too, so we haven't seen the last of sub-freezing temperatures yet.

Next week is Severe Weather Awareness Week with the tornado drill coming Tuesday, March 15th. Most of the state will observe the test siren at 6:30 p.m., but some counties in the east will conduct the drill at 1:30 p.m. It's a good opportunity to talk with your family about all of the safety precautions that could be necessary if you find yourself in the path of a violent storm.