Forecast for May... what's next?

Friday is here and maybe a little hard to believe that we've reached the end of April already. This has been a very generous month of rainfall for us in Kansas. Some areas may have had too much rain, but other areas still need more. Most of the state started the month out well below normal on moisture, but with a few good storms, we are catching up.

Compare the two drought maps (one from the beginning of April and the other from just this week)

The latest drought monitor does not include the heavy rainfall that some parts of Kansas had Tuesday.

So what's coming next as we head into May?

You might recall a few weeks back that in a blog posting, I said after May 3rd, we'd hit some drier and calmer weather for awhile. That still holds true. We have one more system that will come through Monday that might develop some light rain (nothing heavy), and once it slides out, we warm up and dry out. But how long will the drier weather last?

Here's a breakdown:

May 1-3: Unsettled weather continues with a chance for some rain Monday (May 2)

May 4-7: Dry and much warmer. We should go back to above normal temperatures for most of the state

May 8-11: We could have a fairly intense storm system coming through around Mother's Day. This doesn't look like a major severe weather maker for Kansas, but there will be at least a chance for some severe storms to return to the Plains. And there will be more rain coming too.

May 12-16: This period of May looks rather quiet too. Our temperatures will likely be near normal with highs in the 70s and lower 80s. It doesn't look like there will be any big storms coming through during this time. The jet stream should flatten out, which will likely mean some drier (uneventful) weather for much of the area.

May 17-20: It's looking like this stretch of May will be dry and warmer.

May 21-24: Possible storm system setting up across the desert Southwest for this part of May. The jet stream is forecast to take on a more southwest flow aloft, and that could result in potential stormy weather returning to Kansas and surrounding areas. It's not clear if this will mean severe weather, but this will be a period in May that we will have to watch closely to see if something develops out of the pattern change.

Next round of rain coming soon

Looks like the severe weather threat is now behind us for the rest of the week here in Kansas. But another storm system is going to push into the Plains for the end of the week.

We are going to be in some much cooler air now for awhile, and that will minimize the overall potential of hail and wind producing storms.

GFS (American model)

European model

Take a look at the next batch of moisture coming our way Thursday night (for western Kansas) and central and eastern Kansas will see the rain Friday late afternoon and into the night. Areas that have had flooding in the last few weeks will have to keep an eye on creeks and streams. The two different models that we rely so heavily on continue to show widespread rains, with the heaviest possibly sliding across the northern half of the state.

Once this next system pushes on through, we expect the weather will be calming down for awhile. A few light rain showers may develop Monday/Tuesday of next week (May 2, 3), but beyond that, drier weather takes over for awhile.

Severe storms today

Good Tuesday morning. I'll have to keep the blog entry shorter today in order to get ready for everything else later today.

There hasn't been much change in the overall thinking of what will happen this afternoon/evening. Storms could fire up in central and eastern Kansas around 3 p.m. today and they look to be fairly scattered.

Another round of storms are forecast to develop later in the evening, around 6-8 p.m. and those may be coming from Oklahoma.

The most likely time for tornadoes (if we are going to see some today) will come after 5 p.m. when the wind fields in the atmosphere get a little stronger. We do expect there to be some very large hail with stronger storms. It wouldn't be a surprise to see hail a little larger than baseball size given the setup in the atmosphere. Once the storms get going, they will move to the northeast.

After midnight, storms will gradually weaken with time and by Wednesday, much of the severe storms will be well east of Kansas.

Start of a stormy week

Hope you had a nice weekend and dodged the large hail that fell Sunday evening in central Kansas. We had just a couple baseball size hail reports, but there were some windshields knocked out because of it. There were several reports of 2 inch hail from Ellsworth county through Saline and Dickinson counties.

The weather for today looks very quiet across Kansas as we wait for the next weather feature to approach from the west. This system is well west of the Rockies this morning, but will be spreading east into Tuesday.

Lana Reinhart - Minneapolis

Salina hail

wall cloud - near Ellsworth - courtesy Kimbree Hopkins

Tuesday Severe Weather Setup:
There will likely be a warm front over northern Kansas in the morning. Chances for rain and some thunder look possible for a few areas along and north of I-70. These storms are not expected to be severe, but will probably have some heavy downpours and small hail.

A dryline is forecast to push into central Kansas by mid/late afternoon. This is the separation of dry air to the west and humid air to the east. That's one ingredient. The other will be some stronger winds coming into Kansas at roughly 20-25,000 feet. It's not very clear exactly when storms will fire up, but we are looking at 4 p.m. as a starting point, and any storm that fires up will quickly turn severe. We should have more than enough heating Tuesday afternoon to get the storms to develop. However, if the storms hold off until later in the evening (say, after 8 p.m.), then the chance for tornadoes may be somewhat diminished.

Be prepared for hail, high winds, and some tornadoes on Tuesday. It is certainly a day when you want to have a way of getting weather information. Don't rely on Facebook... the warnings are not very timely.

Late Week Storm:
There will be another storm coming into the Plains around Friday/Saturday. That system may produce some severe weather, along with chances for widespread, heavier rainfall for much of Kansas.

Severe weather chances ahead

Just a quick update on severe weather chances as we move into the weekend. You're going to be seeing a lot of weather postings in your Facebook and Twitter feeds regarding potential setups for next week. Please double check the source of the information. Sometimes things get posted or shared that may not be correct.

Sunday:
A cold front will be slowing down across central and northeast Kansas into the late afternoon and evening hours. There will be a chance for some evening thunderstorms, mainly along and southeast of a line from Medicine Lodge to Salina to Manhattan. There is a potential for some hail and wind with stronger storms, but this doesn't look like a widespread severe weather event. Most of the storms will be weakening shortly after sunset.

Monday: 
The weather looks pretty nice with less wind and slightly cooler temperatures.

Tuesday:
Chances for severe weather will increase, especially for areas of central and eastern Kansas. This day has a higher chance for large hail and some isolated tornadoes. There are several ingredients that meteorologists have to consider when forecasting severe storms, and if even one of them is missing, it can really change the forecast. We are still several days away and changes are possible, but the storm system approaching from the west is quite strong. There will be much higher humidity in place, stronger winds, and a lot of warm air that will contribute to the increased chance for severe storms. The most likely areas to experience severe storms will be from Salina to Wichita to Oklahoma City and east. If the storm system slows down or speeds up, this threat can shift around. Updates will be coming, but be prepared for a stormy week across the Plains.

There will be another chance for strong to severe storms at the end of next week too. Looking at Friday/Saturday for the threat to return. Another big system will be kicking out of the southwest and that one will have to be watched closely too.

Severe weather chances increasing soon

Thursday is here and we have two, very nice days coming up in Kansas weather. The wind won't be too strong, skies will be sunny, and with the recent rainfall, we have some very green landscape. There's probably a fair amount of mowing to be done too (or maybe that's just me). 

Dodge City is having their second wettest April on record. If another 0.49" falls by the end of the month, this will become the wettest in recorded history. There is certainly that chance with more stormy weather on the way to the Plains. 

Just beyond our nice weather is a very active, stormy setup for much of the central US. So let's go through what's on the models as we move into the weekend. 

Storm #1:

This will be the system coming out of the west Saturday/Sunday. The main track of this system is north, so for this weekend, the widespread, heavier rainfall will be focused across the northern Plains. Scattered showers and storms are expected over central and eastern Kansas Sunday evening, but most likely not on a widespread basis. Some hail and wind may accompany the stronger storms. At this time, the chances look to stay east of a line from Russell to Medicine Lodge.

Storm #2: 

An additional storm will be racing in from the west Monday night/Tuesday. There is an increasing chance for this setup to favor severe weather across the Plains, and a potential outbreak of storms is looking more likely. Several ingredients appear to be coming together for an increased likelihood of tornadoes too, so let's keep a very close watch on Tuesday. Right now, it looks like the highest severe threat will exist over central and southern Kansas, and down into northern Oklahoma. 

Storm #3:

There should be another storm coming into the Plains Friday, April 29th or Saturday, the 30th. This storm will also pose a risk of producing more severe weather across the Plains. 

Bottom line is that we are about to go into a very stormy week across Kansas and surrounding areas. Make sure you're prepared and we will have updates on air and of course, here on the blog too.

More stormy weather coming this way!

We've made it to Wednesday and there is a lot to talk about now and in the future with our weather here in Kansas and across the country. I showed this last night on the 10 p.m. newscast, but Houston Intercontinental picks up over 10.50 inches of rain in just two days, but it has taken 16 months for Santa Maria, CA to get that much rain. The drought is exceptional in California.

The same storm spinning over Colorado and Kansas the last 5-6 days hasn't moved out just yet. It's so fascinating to me to see how widespread the impacts can be from just one low pressure in the atmosphere.  You have 5 feet of snow in Colorado over the weekend (a foot of snow at Denver's International Airport) and then 16"+ of rain near Houston. Kansas had very heavy rainfall too, which has eased the drought at least for now in several areas of the state. 

Today (Wednesday)

Other than a spotty rain shower late in the afternoon or this evening, we should be dry. This is the last day we will have to talk about this latest storm... it's out of here tomorrow.

Friday - Saturday:

Very nice weather ahead. We will be under high pressure for a few days, so dry, warm, and quiet conditions expected. The wind will pick up Saturday from the south. Wind gusts of 25-30 certainly look possible by Saturday afternoon.

New Storm Developing (over the weekend):

We now feel confident in the path the next storm will take. It's going to go from California to Utah, and eventually into Colorado. Based on this track, heavier rainfall by Sunday will be across the Dakotas and upper Midwest. Central and eastern Kansas might see a few spotty thunderstorms into Sunday night, but they will be quite scattered (if we see anything at all)

Long Range Forecast:

Wet/stormy weather is likely to continue throughout the Plains for the end of April and the first half of May. There is a potential for 5 different storm systems to come through between now and the middle of May. Details on severe weather, heavy rainfall, flooding, etc. are extremely hard to tell this far out, but I would expect some very active weather for several weeks to come. 

Another Storm is expected to arrive Tuesday/Wedesday (April 26-27)

Stormy weather expected around the start of May - cooler than normal temperatures too

May 3-9th - weather looks quiet - mainly dry

Another storm potentially moving in around May 10/11th

Weekend storm stalls ... What's next?

courtesy Nick Newell - flooded Saline River from Ellis County

Good Monday morning and hopefully you had some nice rain from the weekend storm. It was amazing to see such heavy rainfall over western Kansas. Some places picked up two months worth of rain in just the last few days.

Just look at the Doppler radar estimated totals from last Thursday through this morning. This is what it takes to fill farm ponds, lakes, streams, etc. Very beneficial moisture. Now we just need to give it some time to soak in before the next storm arrives (which we will talk about in just a second).

The latest storm is still spinning overhead, so our chances for rain will continue through Wednesday (even though we are catching a bit of a break today and into Tuesday) The amounts won't be quite as heavy. An additional 0.25-0.50" looks possible through Wednesday evening. They will be more scattered than anything else. It's possible we could see some cold air funnels too. They look like the developing stage of a tornado, but rarely do they touch the ground or cause damage.

Next Storm:
We will turn our attention back to the west at the end of the week. Another storm system will be slamming the West by Friday/Saturday. That system will head for the Plains Sunday - Monday, and when it arrives, we should have some moisture in place to bring another chance for showers and storms. This is not shaping up to be widespread 3-5" amounts like some had with the latest storm. But there could be a higher chance for some severe storms with this next system. It's a little early yet, but we will continue to watch the trends heading into the start of next week.

Here we go!!

Welcome to Friday and the start of what should be 4-5 days worth of rain chances for much of the Plains. This is a storm we've been talking about now for over a week and there's so much anticipation, excitement, expectations, etc. with the forecast rainfall. I will say this, please give the rain time to move from west to east over the weekend. Some of you will not see anything at all until late in the weekend, so please be patient. Big storms like this are 9 times out of 10 slow movers.

Friday evening:
Storms are forecast to develop across the west with some chance for hail and wind. We don't expect a severe weather outbreak this evening, but a few watches/warnings are not out of the question. Once storms develop, they will likely move north/northeast.

RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING:
Notice how most of it is in the west. The biggest rains for western Kansas will be from Friday night through the first half of the day Sunday.

RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING:
Heavier amounts of rain will finally begin to move east into the central part of the state. We don't expect these storms to be severe, but you will hear rumbles of thunder and the rainfall may be heavy at times.

RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING:
The heaviest part of the storm system will begin winding down Monday afternoon. So most of you will have your significant rainfall by this time. The rain will continue moving east and slowly dissipate as it does so. I think by Monday evening, most of it will be over for our area.

Any rain chance beyond Monday will just be spotty rain showers and not very heavy at all. This particular setup isn't something we've had in many, many months. Big rains like we are about to see this weekend in western Kansas don't happen often, but it's essential for so many reasons. April - July our usually our wettest months around Kansas. It's nice to see that we are finally going to get a good soaking without having a bunch of severe weather to deal with. Enjoy and PLEASE share your amounts with us.

Remember this day 4 years ago?

Huge Tornado Outbreak in the Plains:

This was the day (April 14, 2012) that we had roughly 25 tornadoes touch down in Kansas with the strongest (an EF 4) tornado that went just east of Kanopolis Lake. 

This was the severe weather outlook from Storm Prediction Center on the morning of April 14th, 2012

It all started with the first tornado watch coming down at roughly 10 a.m. that day. The first tornado warnings were actually up in northern Kansas around Phillipsburg and Smith Center.

Later that afternoon, more storms started developing through central and southwest Kansas. One of the first big tornadoes of the day went north of Lyons (Rice Co.) and tracked just east of Kanopolis Lake. It lifted just before getting to Salina. Here is a map that the tornado took (in purple).

tornado just east of Kanopolis Lake

More storms started developing and moving out of northern Oklahoma into south central Kansas late in the evening. The radar was showing debris down in Harper county with a tornado on the ground there. That was the storm that came very close to Clearwater on it's way into the Wichita area around 10 p.m. The National Weather Service in Wichita turned their duties over to Topeka so they could take cover. The Oaklawn community was hit by the tornado that had a path width of 1 mile and a path length of 13 miles. It received an EF3 rating. After leaving that area, the tornado continued on to do damage at Spirit Aerosystems, tearing the roof off some of the larger buildings there. 

tornado as it hit the Oaklawn community (courtesy Brandon Ivey)

Despite the widespread, severe weather that day, there were no fatalities in Kansas. Just an incredible day that most of us still haven't forgotten about. 

Look at what the models have for the weekend

Just a couple days to go before the storm gets here and the rain arrives for parts of Kansas. YES!! It is coming and I know the waiting game is hard to play. Many areas of the state need the moisture.

When was the last time we had such big amounts of moisture??

Last 1"+ of moisture:
Wichita: December 13th, 2015 (1.01")
Garden City: October 22, 2015 (1.58")
Goodland: May 19, 2015 (1.55")
Salina: December 13, 2015 (2.30")

Last 2"+ of moisture:
Wichita: November 26, 2015 (2.17")
Garden City: June 28, 2014 (4.37")
Goodland: April 16, 2015 (2.08")
Salina: December 13, 2015 (2.30")


We had another close call with a storm passing by to the south of Kansas overnight. There was severe weather in Texas (again!!) and some heavier rainfall. Texas should have a VERY green spring and summer with all of the El Nino fueled rains they've had over the last 5-6 months.

So the big weekend storm is just now coming into the West now. It will continue to dive to the south and then stall right over the Rockies. Any other storm season, this could be a HUGE severe weather maker, but because the Gulf of Mexico moisture will be somewhat limited, we don't expect a great deal of severe storms in the Plains this weekend. There is a slight risk for some hail and wind Friday evening in far western Kansas, but the main focus will be on the heavier precipitation.

Here's an updated look at the rainfall forecast from the two computer models I've been showing through the week. The European model and the GFS (American model) continue to show big rains. Don't focus too much on the exact numbers. Use the data to get an overall sense of where the heavier amounts will be. And the rain should be heavy all over the place. Please be patient. Big storms like this take their own sweet time. Sometimes the onset of the rain can be delayed... but it is coming!

European model

GFS Model

Nice weather leading up to a big storm

Welcome to Tuesday. I expect that many of you reading the blog are interested to know if our weekend storm is still on track. And is the heavier rainfall still expected to arrive in Kansas?

There are essentially two systems to watch over the next 8-10 days. The first one is going to pass just south of us through Wednesday. It will likely stir up more severe storms in Texas. Storms yesterday just whacked the Dallas metro area with baseball size hail. Look at some of the photos posted on Twitter yesterday.

courtesy Roger Edwards

After the passage of system #1, all eyes will turn to system #2 that is about to move into the western US. The key to this setup is that the storm will stall over the Rockies into the weekend and won't move very much until Monday. Some strong storms will be possible, but the likelihood of a severe weather outbreak seems low for a couple of reasons. First, skies will be cloudy (keeping the atmosphere cooler and less supportive of bad storms). Second, the upper level winds will be weakening some too, lowering the chances of very large hail and tornadoes.

But RAIN RAIN RAIN... look at the latest forecast models on potential amounts this weekend. Don't focus on exact amounts. The overall idea here is widespread, soaking moisture is expected soon. Get your rain gauges ready!