Forecast into June - some quiet/some stormy

We've had just an incredible stretch of stormy weather in Kansas. It's not a huge surprise when you consider May is one of our wetter months and usually a busy month with tornadoes. There is about to be a major shift in the storm track (jet stream) and it's going to give us all a break from wet weather.

The wet weather has removed the drought from Kansas (latest drought monitor out on May 24th)

So here's the change taking place. Last week, our upper level winds were coming straight out of the southwest, which led to day after day of storms. Now, we have two things working against the chance for storms: 1) Front pushing most moisture south of Kansas 2) Building high pressure to our west.

Look at the pattern by the end of the week. Models continue to develop a rather large area of high pressure across the Rockies. This shoves the jet stream back up across the northern US, which points to dry conditions. It's not marked on the map, but there is also a weak low down in Texas that will keep a great deal of moisture south of us too.

Early next week:
High pressure continues to control the weather west of Kansas. Upper level winds are still out of the north, so more dry weather coming for our first full week of June.

Around June 10:
Looks like a storm will setup across the western US, which will shift the upper level winds back to the southwest. While this doesn't guarantee the rain will be back in Kansas, it does start to increase the chances for storms across the Plains. So this will be a time period to watch.

June 17:
The upper level winds will continue from the southwest, so there could be a stormy setup right into the middle of the month.

Wheat harvest is just a few weeks away for some, so let's see if Mother Nature will cooperate with the farmers as they get ready for one of the busiest times of year.

Severe weather threat - Thursday

Thanks for sticking with us this week during all of the stormy weather. We have another busy day ahead with storms likely across Kansas and the chance for hail, wind, and tornadoes will once again be focused over our area. 

Storms are expected to develop anytime after 1 p.m. today, and once they fire up, the should move east or northeast. Due to the very high humidity, very large hail is quite likely with most storms and this threat will cover much of the state.

The chance for tornadoes will also be present today. There is a warm front that will lift north across the state, and it's along and north of that front that tornado potential will be highest. This means areas along and north of I-70 definitely need to be watching things closely. 

Our thoughts go out to those who have had damage this week because of storms. Most of us anxiously await some quieter weather heading into the holiday weekend. 

Stormy weather continues

Trevor Sherman - NW of Minneola

Darrel Berry - Scott City

Ron Herrman - Dodge City

It was by far our busiest severe weather day we've had in a long time. I don't know how many tornadoes we had Tuesday evening, but when the final count comes in, it will likely be somewhere around 8-10. Keep in mind, if 5 people see the same tornado and report it, that will be 5 tornado reports, not 5 different tornadoes (it can sometimes cause confusion)


Moving on to the next round and what we expect to happen moving into the holiday weekend. There are several areas of the state that could use some dry weather for a few weeks, but we aren't going to get that kind of stretch for awhile yet.

Today: Mainly quiet. A stray shower or storm may develop late in the afternoon with enough heating and humidity around. However, we don't expect there to be very many (if any) storms in Kansas.

Thursday: Our main culprit to all of the active weather is finally heading into the Plains. The chance for severe storms will once again be in place and we will likely have more hail, wind, and a few tornadoes in the state by Thursday afternoon. Because some areas are so saturated, flooding is a real threat too.

Friday: While the chance for storms will linger on Friday, the severe weather threat is MUCH lower and should be rather spotty.

Saturday: Still expected to be mainly dry around Kansas as the main storm system finally pushes to the north of Kansas.

Sunday - Tuesday: Storm chances will continue for much of Kansas, including Memorial Day as well. There could be some severe storms during this time too.

A CHANGE ON THE HORIZON:
We are starting to see a shift in the pattern that could finally bring an end to so much stormy weather across Kansas. This change could happen as early as Wednesday, June 1st, but definitely, by the second half of next week, we should start seeing more dry weather returning to the Plains.

Stormy pattern - does it end for Memorial Day weekend?

This is our last full week of May and it's shaping up to be pretty active throughout much of the Plains. After the unseasonably cool spell last week with little to no severe storms, I guess we will be making up for that this week.

We have several chances for storms in the upcoming week, but trying to figure out the details is going to be a challenge for us.

What we do know:
There is a slow moving storm anchored over California and the desert Southwest. "Smaller" storms will break loose from there and move toward Kansas. Every time one of those passes, we are going to see storms develop. There will also be a front in the area, which will only help to develop more storms. AND... this will be a much warmer week with more 80s than anything else.

Uncertainties:
It's difficult to know where the highest chances for severe weather will be. Timing of storms will also be a challenge.

We are fairly confident that there will be a break on Wednesday for Kansas. But more storms and some heavy rainfall will once again be possible for Thursday and Friday. Look how much rain could fall by the end of the day Thursday. The southwest may miss the heavier rounds of rain.

Memorial Day weekend:
A few weeks ago when we looked this far out, I suggested we might have a nice Memorial Day weekend (without many storms). The pattern is still looking like we might catch a break for Saturday and Sunday. We will have one storm off to the northeast (into Canada) with another one developing west of the Rockies. It almost never happens that we have a spring or summer holiday weekend come and go without some kind of thunderstorms. But maybe we will get lucky this year. Time will certainly tell.

Active week coming our way

Feels good to make it to Friday and after a cloudy, cool week around the area, you'll be happy to know there SHOULD be some sunshine this weekend. We've had a week of below normal temperatures, but we expect that will get turned around very soon.

Enjoy the weekend and at least a little break from stormy weather here in the Plains. Next week has the potential of being an active week of weather from Sunday night - right into Memorial Day weekend. There's still a chance we will spare part of the holiday weekend from storms, but the exact details won't be known for a few more days yet.

Saturday: Very slight chance for one or two storms that could pop up. They would be so few and far between that it's not worth cancelling anything outdoors yet.

Sunday: Most of the day is looking dry with a little more south wind to deal with. This should be our warmest day over the weekend. A big western storm will begin to break into pieces and the first piece will be coming out of the Rockies by Sunday evening. Storms are likely to develop in northeast Colorado and western Nebraska into the evening hours. They will then spread into northern Kansas into Sunday night. Hail and wind will be the biggest threat with these storms. 

Monday: Morning showers/storms across central and northern Kansas. Those will spread southeast into the afternoon, so late in the day, the western half of the state is looking dry. 

Tuesday: More storms possible just about anywhere in Kansas (except in the southwest)

Wednesday: Mainly dry (with the exception of a stray storm in eastern Kansas)

Thursday: Storms return to Kansas with some heavy rainfall and potential for severe weather

Have a great weekend everyone! We will have updates on the active weather coming soon.

Major switcheroo - Here comes La Nina!

February 2016

April 2016

We spent the fall of 2015 and most of the winter talking about El Nino and its historic status. There is a major shift taking place in the water temperatures, and we are just months away from La Nina. Look at the satellite images of water temperatures across the Pacific. Amazing to see the decline in warm water in just the last few months. The forecast is strongly leaning toward La Nina by late summer. If you aren't familiar, La Nina is the cooler than average water near the Equator in the Pacific. 

Here's another way to see the change taking place. A 3D image of the water temperatures shows the colder water working it's way up to the top of the ocean. What a major reversal! We don't know how strong the La Nina will be yet, but it's clear that this change is happening pretty fast.

So what does all of this mean for you? Well, there's plenty of time to watch and see what may happen, but one of the first things we might see (if La Nina sets in soon) is an uptick in the number of Atlantic hurricanes heading into August, September, and October. It's been over 10 years since a major hurricane has slammed into the US.

La Nina influence on hurricane season

The last La Nina we had was back in 2011/2012 when Kansas had some very hot summer weather and very little moisture (remember all of those 100 degree days we had?) We don't know if the summer of 2017 will be a scorcher because it's too far into the future to know. However, we do know these big swings in water temperatures certainly have a profound impact on weather patterns across our country (some that work in our favor and some that don't)

Spring warmth - storms - and a look ahead to Memorial Day

It felt good to see sunshine yesterday and there's a good chance we will have some sunshine today. We still have another storm system that needs to come through here before we see a shift in the weather pattern. The storm system is over the desert Southwest now, but you don't see very much rain. This system is weakening as it moves closer, but it will pass right over Kansas and Oklahoma on Thursday, bringing another chance for some rain to the area. Amounts will be minimal though (probably under .25")

Friday: clouds will still be hanging around, but dry weather is expected

Weekend: Changes are showing up in the weather pattern. A large area of high pressure will be building up across the midsection of the country, so that will work against the chances for storms this weekend. However, by Sunday night, a large storm in the western US will begin to break into pieces, and one of those pieces will be headed east. A few storms may develop in western Kansas Sunday evening or night, but they'll be quite limited.

Notice that in the map above, by late in the weekend, the upper level winds will be coming in from the southwest. While that doesn't guarantee that we will have a stormy week, our chances for off and on thunderstorms will be increasing into Monday and Tuesday. Be prepared for at least some severe weather as we move into the week leading up to Memorial Day.

Memorial Day Weekend:

At this time, I would expect a nice Memorial Day weekend. There will be a storm over the Southwest that could be something we have to deal with after the holiday. While it's not 100% certain just yet, the way things are starting to setup up, mild temperatures and mainly dry weather could be ours for the long, holiday weekend. Let's hope that it's not too good to be true!

Wet and cool weather continues

Hope everyone had a nice weekend. This cool weather is very much out of place for May, but if it keeps the hail and tornadoes away, then I think most of us are probably okay with it.

This weeks weather is controlled by a slow moving storm that is just west of the Rockies. It's going to keep dropping south through Wednesday, and then Thursday, it will push out across Kansas. This means we will stay with the cloudy, cool, wet weather for most of the week.

Heavy rains tonight:
We still expect a batch of rain and thunderstorms to move from western Kansas into the southern part of the state. Severe storms are unlikely, but heavy downpours could create some flooding concerns. We are still expecting a big chunk of central and southern Kansas to get over an inch of rain. And some areas might be closer to 2 inches.

Tuesday:
Leftover morning showers should be drying up into the afternoon.

Wednesday:
Dry

Thursday:
Rain chances will be favored for areas along and east of I-135 (the Flint Hills will have the best chance for rain)

Rainfall forecast - wet weather returns

Welcome to Friday the 13th. Nothing superstitious about the weekend forecast, but get ready for a rather significant cool down that will put our temperatures 15-20 degrees cooler than normal. 

It's not looking like we will see any rain Saturday, but the chances will gradually increase during the weekend. 

We will see some sprinkles or brief rain showers on Sunday, but it doesn't look like we will even have thunderstorms.

Rain chances will get much better beginning Sunday night and continuing into early Tuesday. Some of the rain might be heavy at times, and forecast models are suggesting that much of central and eastern Kansas will see another inch of rain, with lesser amounts across the west. 

European Model:

Rainfall forecast from Sunday night through early Wednesday

GFS Model:

Rainfall forecast from Sunday night through Wednesday

At this point, I'd be more inclined to believe the European model, but regardless of which one you are looking at, most of the state is looking to get wet over the next 5 days.

Have a great weekend.

A break from severe - but still very active

Wednesday is here and as we move closer to one of the busiest times of the year for graduations and soon Memorial Day, our weather continues to be very active. However, active in this case doesn't necessarily mean severe weather. In fact, as I mentioned yesterday, there's a pretty good chance we won't see too many severe storms in Kansas over the next 7-10 days. That's comforting in what is otherwise known as the peak of our severe weather season around here. 

Tonight - few showers in the southwest. Doesn't look like anything heavy

Thursday - sunny and quiet

Friday - Next strong cold front coming in from the north. Some scattered storms may pop up along the front, especially east of a Hays to Dodge City line. The storms won't be around for very long and it's not looking like they'll be severe. 

Weekend- The pattern is about to shift again and our upper level winds will be coming from the northwest instead of the southwest (which is what we've had recently)  If you look at the map below, you can see a rather extensive area of cool air in the northern US, and some of that air is breaking loose and coming south. While most of the weekend will probably be dry for you, it will be much cooler with highs mainly in the 60s. (that will be 10-15 degrees cooler than average)

Early next week (May 16-18) - There is a storm coming from the Pacific Northwest that will be coming through the Plains. Expect increased chances for rain from Sunday night through at least Wednesday. It stays cloudy and naturally because of that, cooler than normal weather continues.

Late week (May 19-21) - It should be warming up and drying out. Weather calms down for a bit.

May 22/23 - Pattern changes again to more of a southwest flow aloft and that will likely mean chances for some rain will return. I would expect the chances for severe storms will be back, but they will probably be more scattered (rather than statewide)

May 25-27 - There's potential for severe weather leading up to the Memorial Day holiday. We should keep an eye on this time frame as some of the models suggest a stormy setup either Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday. This far out, the date could change, but it's something we will be looking at moving forward.

Memorial Day weekend - It's looking like we may have some quiet, very warm weather around for the holiday. Sounds good, doesn't it? 

Goodbye severe - hello cool!

It feels good to say that the severe weather chances for most of our area look to be over with now for awhile. And when I say "awhile", we may go another week or so without any real chance for hail and high winds. There will be a chance for some spotty severe storms tomorrow (Wednesday) over far eastern Kansas, but most of the heavy weather will get out of our state pretty quickly.

Overnight/Early Wednesday:

Scattered showers and some storms will develop behind a cold front across northern Kansas. If you are south of I-70, it's less likely there will be much in the way of rainfall.

Thursday:

Looks quiet and dry

Friday: 

Warm for most of the day but a cold front will be coming in Friday evening. A few showers/thundershowers may develop along the front, but it's not looking like it will be anything heavy. The front should be through Kansas by early Saturday.

This weekend:

Cool, Canadian air will spread south and temperatures will be some 15-20 degrees below average. I'm expecting several days (from the weekend all the way into the start of next week), highs may only be in the 50s and 60s. There will also be a storm system approaching from the west late in the weekend, so the chances for rain will be increasing by Sunday and the start of our 3rd full week.

Storms today - pattern change coming

Good Monday morning and hope everyone had a nice weekend. Severe storms on Sunday were fairly scattered for most of the state.

Today:

We haven't seen the last of the hail and wind producing storms just yet. A slow moving storm system continues to spin over Kansas and drier air will be coming across western Kansas throughout the day. The best chances for storms will be along and east of I-135 and the timing will probably be earlier in the day. I would expect anytime after lunch, scattered storms may begin developing over the area.

Late week change:
I'll go into more detail tomorrow on the change, but by Thursday/Friday, our upper level winds will be turning to the northwest. This will send a cold front across the state by Friday/Friday night and drop the temperatures for the weekend. Although there could be some rain around Friday afternoon, the big story will be a change in temperatures. We could be in for some cloudy/much cooler weather by Saturday and Sunday. So after today, the chances for severe weather seem to be tapering off for awhile.

Mother's Day weekend storm - some severe

Good Thursday morning. We've had some very nice weather in Kansas this week. The wind hasn't been too bad and the humidity has been under control too.

Weekend Setup:
A slow moving storm system will be coming into Kansas very soon. The storm is coming on shore Thursday night and as it moves east, it will be less organized and weakening some. One limiting factor to severe storms on Saturday will be the humidity. Rich, Gulf of Mexico moisture is a key ingredient in severe weather forecasting (and widespread, heavier rainfall), but higher humidity doesn't come into play until we get closer to Sunday. Take a look at forecast dew points Saturday afternoon. Several locations will be getting back into the 50s (high enough for storms), but dew points above 60 is usually necessary for more significant severe storms.

Saturday:
Slight risk for severe storms over northwest and some of north central Kansas. There will be a front stretched out along I-70 and late in the afternoon (and through the evening), storms will be favored near the front. Anybody along and north of I-70 should be watching for hail and wind producing storms Saturday evening. Farther south (into southwest Kansas) an isolated storm may develop, but this appears to be a little less favorable.

Sunday:
The chance for severe storms will be spreading to the eastern half of Kansas. It looks like areas east of a line from Russell to Dodge City will have a chance for severe weather. Main threats will once again be some hail and high winds.

Happy Cinco de Mayo!!

Remembering Greensburg & Mercury transit coming soon

It's hard to believe that the Greensburg tornado was already 9 years ago today. Early May is historically a rough time of year in Kansas with some very violent storms. What was interesting to me that night is how the storm moved up from the south. So many storms move from southwest to northeast, but that storm had more of a northerly track to it. Just look at the damage path from that night. How interesting that it loops around to the northwest before falling apart. It was the first EF5 tornado (on the new Enhanced Fujita Scale)

Our weather won't be capable of producing any kind of violent weather today, tomorrow, or Friday. We are right under a high pressure system in the upper atmosphere, and that will keep us clear and quiet for awhile.

We do have a storm system coming in for Mother's Day weekend. It's a fairly large storm that will be slow to move, and as the system approaches, it becomes a little less organized and starts to weaken some.

Saturday:
The first chances for storms will show up in northern Kansas by Saturday evening. There's a warm front that will be stretched out along and north of I-70, that will be the area to watch in the first part of the weekend. The could be a couple of storms move into southwest Kansas as well, but most of the storms Saturday evening will be isolated.

Sunday:
A little more favorable for scattered storms over much of the state. It's a little less likely for rain the farther west that you go, but the chance is still there. It's not a high chance for severe weather, but I would expect we will have some hail and wind in our state this weekend.

Monday, May 9th the Transit of Mercury across the sun will take place. It starts at 6:12 a.m. (before the sun comes up) and ends at 1:42 p.m. You can't look directly at the sun, but there will be a very small black dot that travels through the lower part of the sphere of the sun. The last time Mercury crossed this path was back in 2006. Venus sometimes has a path that takes it between the Earth and sun, but that won't happen again until 2117. There are several places on the internet where you can watch this online. I'll keep you posted on where you can find this live viewing.