Some flooding potential through Sunday

 The holiday weekend is almost here. I always enjoy the 4th of July because it usually means homemade ice cream (I wonder if my mom is reading this) and some cool firework displays. Please celebrate safely and enjoy the break from the heat.

If you are camping this weekend, please keep an eye on the weather. We don't expect there to be a ton of severe storms, but repeated rounds of storms could create a flooding concern. Forecast models continue to highlight a wide swath of Kansas could get 2-4 inches of rain (maybe more, especially farther east). Flash flood watches are in place this weekend where it looks the rain will be heaviest.

GFS model

European model

Creeks and streams could rise quickly. The good news is that with all of the fireworks going off, the fire danger should be quite low.

The pattern looks like it will change by Sunday afternoon and by the 4th of July, we should be getting back into a dry and hot stretch of weather. I don't see an intense heat wave developing, but it does look like things will calm down and dry out for our area.

And during the month of July, I will be on the road with Emily Griffin traveling to different places in Kansas. We are celebrating people that make us Kansas Proud, so be sure to tune in one week from today to see where we end up. It will be fun and maybe, we will convince Millie to tag along with us.

Wet end to June - cooler to begin July

The month of June comes to a close and we welcome in July with rainfall AND cooler than normal weather. We can't always say that, especially when you think of July as the peak of the summer season.

Here's what's happening for the rest of this week. The pattern hasn't changed much in recent days, so the chance for scattered storms continues. Gusty winds, some hail, and pockets of heavy rain will be the main concerns. It's almost like a railroad track has been placed over Nebraska, Colorado, and Kansas. Once storms fire up, they follow the track right down into our state. Just as one railroad car follows another, one round of storms follows another. This setup should continue for the rest of the week. One feature that we expect to see is a cold front that will arrive on Thursday afternoon, and then it stalls for Friday, Saturday, and early Sunday. Heaviest rains may come Friday night through early Sunday. 

Your holiday weekend plans may be dampened by the chance for storms. I know it's probably not what wheat farmers want to hear. And it's not good news for those who wanted extra time on the lake, however, we do expect the wet pattern to shift before we get to the 4th of July holiday.

GFS Model

European Model 

The two models we compare most frequently here on the blog is the GFS and the European model. Both models can be pretty good, and sometimes one does better than the other. But the point here is that we have to watch for some very heavy rains between now and the 4th of July holiday. Where the heaviest rain sets up just depends on where the front winds up.

We passed the summer solstice more than a week ago, but going into early July, we still get more than 14 and a half hours of daylight. By the end of the month, the sun will be going down around 8:30 and we will have just over 14 hours of daylight. 

July (on average) is Goodland's wettest month with nearly 3.50 inches of moisture. Wichita averages over 3 inches, but July isn't our wettest month. 

Severe chances return - difficult forecast ahead

Welcome to Monday and the start of a difficult week of forecasting in Kansas weather. It will also be a difficult week for cutting wheat in Kansas too, so for the farmers still trying to harvest, I wish I had better news.

June is coming to a close very quickly, and it has been a very warm month. Take a look. Every day this month has been above normal except for June 1st in Wichita. We haven't had many record highs, just several days of 90 degree heat.

Pattern Changes This Week:
So why is this a tough week for forecasting? The setup favors a weak high pressure system over the Four Corners area through the end of the week with northwest winds coming down over Kansas. So anything that develops out in Colorado, Nebraska, or Wyoming will have a chance of moving into our state. This is a pattern that meteorologists grumble about because it's so tough to pin down the "where and when" questions. It's almost impossible to answer some of those questions more than two days out, but as always, we look at the new data and give it our best shot.

Monday evening/night: Best chance for storms will be in western Kansas, likely west of a Russell to Pratt line. Main threat will be damaging winds to 65 mph and heavy rainfall.

Tuesday: Storms will likely move out or dissipate early in the day.

Tuesday Night: A big batch of storms will develop in Nebraska, Wyoming, and South Dakota, and then roll southeast in Kansas (maybe not until Wednesday morning). These storms will likely be big wind producers, so keep this in mind, especially over northern Kansas.

There will be more storm chances coming throughout the week. 

Here is a forecast for rainfall through Wednesday:

And another forecast for total rainfall through Friday evening

This is  just a rough estimate of how much you could get, not a guarantee.

June heat & get ready for next week

Hope you have a way of beating the heat today because this will be one of the hottest days we've had this summer (for at least most of the state) We have had two solid weeks now of 90 degree weather and it rolls on for the rest of this week. I do expect a change... more in a moment. 

Record watch today:

A few locations could tie or break the record for today. Almost all of the record highs from now through early September will be in the 100s, so anytime we get above the century mark, we will check the stats.

Late week pattern:

A couple of things to consider for the rest of the week. The dome of high pressure that allows for day after day of heat and dry weather is weakening. We also have a stalled front that will be in the area tomorrow (Thursday), so watch for widely scattered storms to develop after 3 or 4 p.m. Just like last week, not everyone will get the rain, but those that do... it could be quite heavy. I don't expect major hail, but some wind gusts to 60 will be possible.

Weekend storm chances:

There is a chance for spotty storms Saturday night (should be after dark), but those will be very hit and miss. And new data in this morning suggests that even the Sunday storms will be pretty isolated too. So the weekend won't be a washout, but we can't overlook the fact some of us may have some storms to deal with.

HEADS UP... Next week!

I'm expecting a big shift in the weather pattern early next week. The high pressure system will slide back over the western US and this is going to allow for overnight, widespread storms. Some of them could be severe with damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall. This kind of setup usually results in storms that form in Nebraska and then move southeast into the night. Monday night and Tuesday night both have good chances of seeing nighttime storms. Cooler weather could be coming our way too. There are indications of 80 degree weather by the middle of next week (heading into early July of all times)

Back from Austin - Summer Solstice - Heat/Storms

It's great to be back home after a week in Austin, TX at the AMS (American Meteorological Society) Broadcast Conference. These meetings offer up a chance to learn about new technology and advancements in the world of meteorology. Other topics are covered too that may not be directly weather related. One topic covered that everyone seems to be very interested in is the upcoming total solar eclipse for next August (2017). There will be a great deal of information about it as time gets closer, but it will be a very memorable event and something we haven't seen in nearly 100 years.

Summer begins today at 5:34 p.m. The Earth is tilted toward the sun, but did you know the Earth is farther from the sun than it is on the Winter Solstice? It is the tilt that creates our seasons, and the Southern Hemisphere is having their winter right now. Can you imagine living in places like Alaska where they have almost no nighttime? Check this out:

• Barrow, Alaska - Sun stays up all day
• Anchorage, Alaska - 19 hours, 21 minutes
• Wichita - 14 hours, 46 minutes

Our nights are pretty short around here, but I can't imagine the sun staying up all day like it does in Barrow this time of year.

We do have more hot weather is coming to Kansas. This is good news as wheat harvest continues around the state. There will be increasing south winds for Tuesday/Wednesday. Looking ahead, here's what we can expected:

• High pressure begins breaking down by Wednesday
• Another front arrives Thursday afternoon/evening
• Chances for showers/storms will increase - but they will be scattered
• Not guaranteed, but scattered storm chances will linger into Friday
• Another front (even stronger) should arrive next weekend, so storms will be in the forecast Saturday, followed by some cooler weather late in the weekend.

Developing heat wave - for how long?

Less than a week to go before summer's official arrival, but here we are staring right into the start of a heat wave that will likely last for more than a week. Ever since the 50+ 100 degree days of 2011, summer weather patterns make me nervous. That was such a rough summer with a stubborn weather pattern that didn't want to break down.

Take a look at the setup heading into the middle of the week. The jet stream (or storm track) will be pointed from California right up into the northern Rockies. This will allow for the heat to slowly intensify.

It is not uncommon to have some 100 degree heat in June. In fact, most areas average 1-2 days of 100 degree weather by the end of this month. But when it starts getting this hot in June, we can be in for a very long summer.

Where do we go after this week? Forecast models hold on to the large high pressure system right into the first full week of summer. So I don't look for any big changes to take place in temperatures over the weekend or the start of next week. And with such a large heat dome over the area, good chances for rain/thunder will stay away too. Good news for wheat harvest, but bad news for the electric bill and water bill. Welcome to summer!!

More storms headed this way next week

The peak of severe weather season has passed, but it is still very much a time of year that we can have hail and wind producing storms. In fact, we are looking at a setup for Monday/Tuesday that will likely produce some severe storms in Kansas and surrounding states. 

From a historical standpoint, we are in the bullseye for where severe storms normally develop at this time of year. As we move into the second half of June and early July, this bullseye will shift to the northern Plains. 

Look at the summary of tornado and severe thunderstorm watches!! Hard to believe there are parts of Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas that haven't even had one so far this year. The map with all of the blue indicates where all of the severe thunderstorm watches have been issued.

European Model

GFS Model

Next week, we expect rainfall to return to Kansas. The chances will include the entire state, but the least likely area to see rain will be in the southwest. Here are two possible solutions from the forecast models for early next week. Don't focus too much on the exact amounts, but this should give you an idea of what could be coming our way after the weekend.

Looking to the next chance for rain - severe weather

June is off to a quiet start and there won't be much change between now and Sunday around Kansas. I've heard some people say they are starting to water again now that we haven't had much rain in almost a week. Some parts of Kansas need rain, but with the wheat harvest about to move into full swing, I'm sure several farmers wouldn't mind the rain holding off.

The pattern looks to remain fairly quiet for Kansas. Very warm temperatures higher up in the atmosphere can usually work against storms developing, and that will tend to be the case all the way through the weekend.

Next week, we see the weather pattern beginning to change. There's a small, compact storm system that will be coming through the Southwest and headed into the Plains by Monday. At the same time, a cold front will be on the move. It will set up across Kansas by Monday afternoon and help produce storms both Monday and Tuesday. There will be chances for severe storms too (hail and wind) that could show up, especially over central and eastern Kansas. We will also be cooling down as the front passes on by. Highs are going to drop back to the lower 80s, and we may very well stay in the 80s for much of the week.

One front today - Colin - and next chance for storms

Good Monday morning! Here's hoping everyone had a nice weekend. Now that the faucet has been turned off, the heat is building up and summertime seems to be making an early appearance.

There is a cold front pushing into the area today. We will likely have just enough heat today to help fire off an isolated storm, but they won't last very long at all. I would expect by sunset, anything that has developed will be fading fast. You can see the front at 4 p.m. today will likely stretch right over central Kansas. It's not very strong, but will drop the temperatures about 5-10 degrees heading into Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Colin will be coming into Florida tonight or very early Tuesday. Winds are around 50 mph and there will be some changes in strength. However, it's still way below hurricane strength (74 mph winds), so there's little chance this will become a hurricane before making landfall.

We have identified the weather pattern will start to change next weekend (June 10/11), but the impact for Kansas may not come until early next week. Stormy weather will return to the western US and there are two areas to keep an eye on. One part of the stormy weather will go north with the jet stream (through Montana and Idaho). There's a second part that will come through southern California and into Arizona. The southern storm has a chance to produce some rain for Kansas. And there should be a little bit of a cooldown coming our way too.

Why so much rain in Texas - How long until more rain for Kansas?

Storm track today - why so much rain in Texas

The flooding in Texas is just incredible and feels like it's been going on for months now. The El Nino influence on the weather pattern has contributed to such a wet pattern across the south. But the other big factor is that we've had several storms that continue to be very slow movers. This latest storm down south doesn't have enough wind behind it to shove it out of Texas. The main flow of wind is across the northern part of the US, so the storm is essentially stuck for a few more days.

Kansas will continue to enjoy dry and warm weather for the next several days. Most of our standing water should dissipate. Creeks and streams should be going down if they haven't already. 

June 6-9:

Looks warm/hot with dry conditions for much of the state. A storm system approaches from the west around June 10th, which could lead to scattered storm chances. It's highly unlikely there will be any widespread rains during this time. Highs will be above normal.

June 10-15:

Stormy weather returns to the western US and as the jet stream bends a little farther south, we could see some storms again through the Plains. Once again, this doesn't look like a widespread setup for rain, but chances may be around for some.

June 16-20: Some possibility of a storm system coming across the northern US. If this happens, we could see some cooler weather arriving in Kansas. 

June 21st: Heat building up. Dry and hot weather could be surging back across the area. Welcome to summertime!!

June stats - did you know?

Welcome to June. We are approaching the half way point of the year (crazy how fast time flies!)

Did you know:

- June 1st marks the start of meteorological summer 

- June is, on average, the wettest month out of the year for Wichita and Dodge City. It's the second wettest month of the year for Goodland

- Our earliest sunrise and latest sunset will happen this month. 

- Hurricane season is now here for the Atlantic, Pacific, and Gulf

The long range forecast is still calling for near normal precipitation for many areas throughout Kansas. Even though the beginning to the month is dry, I definitely think we will have some wet stretches ahead. You can look back at yesterdays blog to see a forecast for the next few weeks. But there's a stormy part to the pattern that will be back, but it's still several days away.