What makes a shelf cloud?!

We had some very strong storms move across Kansas and thanks to many of you, we received a bunch of great photos of the shelf cloud. Such a beautiful and impressive cloud feature. But what makes a shelf cloud look the way that it does?

courtesy Nicole Smith - Derby

Take a look. We received this picture from Nicole Smith as the storm entered Derby. From a side view, it's easier to illustrate what the wind is doing to create such a dramatic feature. Warm, moist air gets forced up into the storm. Because cooler air is more dense, it descends to the ground and continues to force the warmer air up into the storm. But within the rain-cooled air, you can get some very strong winds. In this case, the worst is usually first, and then comes the rain. Thursday night, we had wind gusts over 80 mph, power outages, and lots of branches down.

courtesy T.W. Anderson (in a holding pattern above Wichita)

courtesy Tim Ulmen - Wichita

Rainfall totals from yesterday and early Friday morning:

Smith Center: 2.41"
Wichita: 1.04"
Winfield: 0.80"
Hutch: 0.76"
Jabara Airport: 0.65"
Salina: 0.23"

Severe threat today - Nice Friday in store

Thursday is here and our next round of severe weather is shaping up for parts of Kansas. Much of the state could be looking at some strong to severe storms heading through the evening hours. Wind gusts of 70 mph will be possible with some locally heavy rainfall and hail. I don't think the storms will go all night long. In fact, but midnight or 1 a.m. Friday, most of them will be out of the area. 

Here is a look at what's on our Future Track heading into the evening. Storms will start in the northwest around 5/6. 

By 9 or 10 p.m. the storms should be coming across south central Kansas. 

AND... maybe the best news of all is that in the wake of the storms this evening will come some cooler weather for tomorrow. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s for Friday afternoon. 

Next week looks hotter for Kansas. Highs will be pushing the 100 degree mark AGAIN, but there are signs on the models that we will see a cold front at the end of the week and another chance for some rain coming Friday. So even if we end up with a mini heat wave next week, it shouldn't last for more than 5 days or so.

On the Road!

Millie and I will be in Douglass today for our Hometown Heroes segment. Then we head to Dodge City for Friday where we will be judges in the kids BBQ competition as part of Dodge City Days. We will be busy, but just thrilled that it won't be a major heat wave. 

History in the tropics - stormy changes for Kansas

It's the longest drought of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico since records began back in the 1800s. There hasn't been a single hurricane develop or move into the Gulf since Hurricane Ingrid back in September of 2013. That means we are well over 1000 days and still counting as there are no hurricanes forecast for the area in the foreseeable future.

Storms on the way to Kansas:
The weather pattern shifted this week, and that allowed us to slip out of the 100s and get away from the excessive heat for awhile. The giant heat bubble this week is over the West where major wildfires are still burning.

Scattered storms should develop across western and northern Kansas into Wednesday evening and night. It's not clear how far south the storms will go before falling apart, but the best chances for rain are shaded in yellow.

The best chance for rain and thunder will come Thursday evening/night across the state. We don't expect a big outbreak of severe weather, but some gusty winds and heavy rainfall are expected. Rainfall amounts are hard to forecast the next few days because of the scattered nature of the rain, but some places could end up with about an inch of moisture.

Highs in the 80s -sound good? That's what's on the way for Friday. It actually looks pretty nice with mostly cloudy skies helping to keep the temperatures down for the end of the week. It will get hotter though and we could see another mini heat wave developing over the weekend into the start of next week. Highs will be approaching 100 for several days beginning on Sunday.

Stormy in the Pacific; storms in Kansas too

Hurricane season is here and it's been quite active in the Pacific. Pacific storms don't seem to get much attention because they move away from the mainland of the US. So you don't normally see much national media attention. But Tropical Storm Darby passed near the Hawaiian islands over the weekend and there are two more storms that are moving through the Pacific. Hurricane Georgette is a major hurricane now with winds of 130 mph and Frank, a strong tropical storm.

We don't have any areas of development in the Atlantic right now, but it is still very early in the season. Hurricane season in the Atlantic doesn't peak until the first part of September. 

Just about everyone I ran into last week or over the weekend had the same request: cooler weather please. Even the summer lovers seem to agree that anything over 100 is excessive. We won't likely have very many (maybe not ANY) 100s this week. Now the heat index may go above 100 a couple of times, but the air temperatures should be lower. Part of what is going on this week is our large high pressure system has moved back west. We also have a front that will meander over Kansas, helping create some off and on storm chances. So those two factors alone should allow us to stay out of the 100s. I hesitate to show you how much rain could fall, because most of what we will see this week will be scattered. Predicting how much rain and where will be really difficult. 

Have we seen the last of the 100s for the summer? I don't think we have based on the long range trends. Some computer models bring the high pressure system back over the Plains during the 3rd full week of August, which may lead to another mini heat wave. But then again, we still have quite a bit of summer left. This image below is for next week, still showing the center of the high pressure off to the southwest, but it could be close enough to allow our temperatures to warm up to near 100.

Weather pattern next week showing the high pressure "heat dome" just off to the west of Kansas

Is 2016 that hot and what's coming next week

As the heat wave continues, I think we should be clear about something after NASA released some new information yesterday. The recent heat wave is not directly connected to the topic of climate change or this release of 14 consecutive months of above normal temperatures. That's a global temperature, not a reflection of what is happening locally. In fact, I did some calculating yesterday to see how things stack up for at least one spot in our state. So I looked at Wichita numbers and found that the first 6 months of 2012 were actually hotter than what we've had so far this year. 

There is a very big different between climate and weather. 

Climate - a collection of weather over a VERY long time

Weather - the conditions that are happening now

I think it's important to keep those distinctions in your head because they can be mixed around and confusing. We just have to keep some things in perspective when reading and listening to future predictions on major weather events.  

Ring of Fire:  Kansas is caught in the middle of the "ring of fire" this week. Because of the big high pressure "heat dome", thunderstorms are rotating around us. The wind blows clockwise and storms are carried across the Rockies and into the northern Plains. Other storms east of us move to the south.

NEXT WEEK: Not as hot!!

It's looking like next week will not be as hot. The big dome of high pressure is going to setup farther west and that should help to keep us out of the 100s. This will also raise the possibility of scattered storms for our area. We are right at the hottest part of the year. The normal high is 93, but by July 31st and into August, the average begins dropping. Long range trends seem to point toward more thunderstorm chances and less intense heat heading into August. I'll have a more detailed outlook coming very soon. 

Dangerous heat, but a possible break

There's no better example of a heat wave then what we are experiencing this week. Some of the numbers we are looking are just incredible, but this is July and shouldn't surprise us too much. This is by far the longest stretch of heat that we've seen all summer and some of the hottest temperatures too.

The intense heat that we are seeing this week is driven by the large high pressure stuck right over the central Plains. Under the high pressure, the air sinks and warms up. Back in the summer of 2011/2012, this high pressure system barely moved and we ended up with a record setting number of 100 degree days.

By the weekend, the pattern begins to shift as the big dome of heat moves back to the west. This should allow for a cold front to slide through the area and knock us out of the 100s for awhile. It is questionable as to whether or not we will have thunderstorms, but computer models are indicating at least slight chances.

How are we doing on rainfall for the summer so far?
Take a look at the numbers:

Wichita: 11.23" / +3.93"
Salina: 2.09" / -4.68"
Goodland: 2.81" / -2.44"
Dodge City: 7.53" / +2.52"

The big rains over the 4th of July weekend definitely pushed the numbers highers for several areas of central and western Kansas. 

Historic winds and a heat wave is about to begin

Good Friday morning! What a busy couple of mornings with destructive winds and major tree damage. Trash day for me is always a windy day it seems like. I picked my dumpster up 3 or 4 times yesterday. The measured wind gust in Wichita of 80 mph is going down as the 8th strongest wind gust for the city. Here's the list of top wind gusts for the city. Interesting to me that so many are from July.

We have to be on the lookout for more storms today as the potential is there for damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and some hail (sound familiar?) Storms in Nebraska will move to the southeast. The chances should get out of Kansas later tonight. Of course, it's not certain everyone will have rain and storms, but be prepared. These storms recently have just had a ton of rain in them, nearly blinding anyone driving through them.

Heat Wave Watch! The pattern is getting ready to shift on us as we continue through the dog days of summer. It's known as the "dog days" because of a star that rises at the same time the sun does. This is, on average, the hottest point of the year with the average high getting to 93/94 degrees. So even though some of us will moan and groan about the extended forecast, it is summer! The H acts like a shield and deflects most thunderstorm chances around our state. So we won't have too many thunderstorms to track (after Friday).

But how long will this last? I've been studying the long range trend and it sure looks like by the end of the month, the pattern begins shifting around again. Yes... we could have 12-14 days of this hot, boring weather. Once the big H begins moving back to the west, we should see a return to some active weather with less heat in the Plains. Hopefully your AC is ready for a workout! Have a good weekend.

Storms, cooler, and then a developing heat wave

So much to go over today with major wind storms moving across central and northern Kansas. Wind gusts close 80 mph have been reported and there have been significant power outages. We have quite a few pictures coming in of trees and power lines down. Winds were measured at 80 mph just one mile west of Hays.

courtesy Matt Schoech

courtesy Coach Kofford - in Russell

We have more heavy rainfall, a brief cool spell, and then here comes a heat wave. The stormy pattern is continuing this week around the Plains, even though not everybody is getting rain. We are dealing with several slow moving fronts that basically end up over Kansas. That's creating the necessary setup to have more active weather. It's no surprise that some still want rain, and others are hoping for a dry spell to get some work done.

Storms Wed. night: A few could develop over far eastern Kansas - an isolated severe storm is possible with some hail and wind

Thursday evening-night: Much better chance for storms developing around Kansas. Highest rainfall will setup over the eastern half of the area. Computer models are indicating there should be some 1-2" plus amounts, and with saturated ground in places, watch for flooding.

Friday evening-night: Another round of some heavy rainfall should move through the state, starting out west and then pushing southeast.

Into the weekend.... Heat Wave Watch!

100 degree days so far:

Salina: 8 Days

Wichita: 3 Days

Goodland: 2 Days

Dodge City: 1 Day

We are looking at a pretty strong high pressure setting up over the area heading into next week. This is going to mean several dry, hot days will be coming to Kansas. Most of our heat waves this summer have been pretty short lived, but this could be the longest spell (which matches up with what is typically the hottest time of year)

I don't expect too many changes heading into our last full week of July, The high pressure looks like it will continue to hang around, so we should be bracing for more heat.

I do see indications that the big dome of heat will retreat back to the west as we approach the first of August. While it's not a guarantee, there is some other supporting data boosting our confidence that a break to the scorching heat may arrive around August 1. So hang in there, this could be a very hot spell for our area.

Storm chances off & on - drier days ahead

Welcome to Monday everyone. This will be a hot week with at least a few rounds of storms. We could almost make a case for putting thunderstorm chances in the forecast each day this week, but there are a few days that standout. 

1st Chance - This evening:

Scattered storms will pop up along a front in central and northern Kansas. A few storms could produce some hail and winds. We most likely won't see anything until closer to sunset, and once the storms fire up, they should gradually shift east.

Tuesday:

Highest chances for storms will likely be in southeast and far eastern Kansas. The front isn't going to move very far, so the chances continue to hang around the Plains. 

Thursday evening:

This is shaping up to have the best chance for widespread storms with some heavy rainfall. Forecast models show rain and storms developing north and west, and then pushing southeast into the night. In the wake of the heavier rainfall, we just might catch some heat relief by Friday. Highs could drop to around 90 by the end of the week.

The pattern still favors a series of storm systems coming off the Rockies that will trigger some of the rain this week, but next week, a large high pressure system could be setting up over Kansas. If this happens, we will likely see the rain chances ending with a longer stretch of heat across the Plains. 

Wet/stormy start to July - more coming

It's great to be back in Kansas, even though it was extremely hard to pass up some beautiful weather in Los Angeles over the 4th of July. I can see why so many like it out there. Afternoon temperatures in the 75-80 degree range with very little humidity. I don't think I saw very many bugs the entire time I was there either.

View from Griffith Observatory - Above LA

Evening in Marina Del Ray

4th of July fireworks - Marina Del Ray

Even though I was hundreds of miles from the Plains, I couldn't help but follow the storms and flooding that was taking place here in Kansas. WOW! I measured over 8 inches of rain at my house and I know there were some of our weather watchers with 10"+ over the holiday. You just can't get that much rain at one time and not expect some problems. Just look at the radar estimates from the last week. A huge swath of heavy rain from western Kansas right down through Wichita. The rain is keeping some farmers out of the field, but you have to admit, our state is looking nice and green for July, and that's not something we can say every year.

Looking ahead, we expect the next chance for storms to arrive into Friday evening/night. Some severe storms are possible, but watch for locally heavy rainfall.

Storms may be scattered again Saturday evening/night, but not everybody will see rain. What rain does fall could once again be locally heavy.

By the time we get to Sunday and beyond, the pattern will start shifting around and hot/manly dry weather should take over for the start of our second full week in July.