Flooding continues - major action in the tropics

Flooding rains are about to end in Kansas after 4 days in a row with heavy downpours. We've had a relentless flow of monsoon moisture coming right over our area. The storms that develop are tropical in nature, and dump buckets of rain in such a short amount of time. But drier air is on the way and after today (Wednesday), the rain chances will be over for awhile. Yes! We finally have a change on the way.

Take a look at some of the flooding from Ellsworth county Wednesday morning. Several roads are under water, but things will begin to improve shortly. Photos courtesy Kendra Ploutz.

Thursday/Friday: Lower humidity and highs mainly in the 80s.

Saturday/Sunday: Dry, windy, and warmer - An isolated storm possible for the NW

Tropics Update: The big island of Hawaii (Hilo) has never been hit by a hurricane (in recorded history). But will Madeline be the first land falling hurricane there? It is weakening now, and if it hits Hawaii, it will likely be a Category 1 hurricane with winds just over 74 mph. A second storm, Lester, looks to move closer to Hawaii by the weekend. This storm will likely curve and move to the northwest of the islands.

Tropical depression 9 will likely become Tropical Storm Hermine today! It's been churning in the Gulf now for more than 24 hours, and it's finally getting it's act together. It is not expected to reach hurricane strength, but it will be close. Hurricane watches are out for the panhandle of Florida as the storm moves closer. This system will then slide up part of the eastern US over the holiday weekend.

Labor Day / September Forecast

Some places have just had way too much rain in the month of August. As we mentioned last week, Wichita is experiencing the 4th wettest August on record. Other places are recording some remarkable amounts of rain too. Monsoon moisture has been feeding into the central US. Take a look at this latest satellite image and you can see the connection. The moisture plume keeps coming, but changes will show up soon. Drier air and slightly cooler air will settle south for the end of the week, which will shut down the rain maker for awhile.

At the beginning of August, I put out a month long outlook and it had some success. Forecasting 20-30 days out is quite challenging and we don't know exactly what each and every day will bring, but we can look for trends. So that's what I've done here. I'm just trying to give you an idea of what I see in the long range forecast.

First of all, let me say this. September is looking like a warm month for Kansas. There will be a few stretches of cooler weather when we get some rain, but I think you're going to see several warm spells. This is the time of year that warm usually means upper 80s/low 90s. We are passed the point of worrying about 100 degree heat. It would be extremely unlikely to get that hot considering how wet/green everything is.

We will see several fronts coming through, but it looks like behind each one of them, there will be a tendency to warm up fairly quickly. And there will be a couple of cases where high pressure will build up and we will have warm stretches.

Weather pattern setup September 23

So take a look at the calendar and use it as a guide. Fall begins on the 22nd at 9:21 A.M. The jet stream will be strengthening and before long, we will be noticing stronger storms and stronger cold fronts that will send us into the fall season. This is a very exciting time of year watching the dramatic changes taking place in the atmosphere.

Historic summer rains - Forecast for Labor Day

Hope everyone has a nice weekend. I'm adjusting to working Friday evenings now, which is quite a change, but sometimes change is good.

We did some digging today with the help of the National Weather Service to track down the records for wettest Augusts and wettest summers. Keep in mind, record information is VERY limited for cities in Kansas. Wichita, Dodge City, Goodland, and Topeka have the most detailed record information and a database that goes back into the 1800s. 

Take a look:

Here's are more detailed lists:

Wettest Summers (months of June, July, August)

1) 2005 - 23.61"

2) 1950 - 23.32"

3) 2016 - 20.74"

4) 2013 - 20.15"

5) 1951 - 19.90"

6) 1948 - 18.87"

7) 1995 - 18.71"

8) 1960 - 18.07"

9) 1989 - 17.75"

10) 2004 - 17.09"

Wettest Augusts:

1) 2005 - 11.96"

2) 2013 - 10.63"

3) 1933 - 8.50"

4) 2016 - 8.24"

5) 1960 - 7.91"

6) 1888 - 7.77"

7) 1987 - 7.69"

8) 1895 - 7.67"

9) 1991 - 7.57"

10) 2003 - 6.82"

Rains this weekend will be few and far between. It's definitely a case of "isolated" because about 90% of Kansas won't see anything at all. Take a look at what our Future Track shows for Saturday evening. That's a true example of isolated, and the storms are not likely to be severe. Hope everyone has a nice weekend. Still looks like our Labor Day weekend will be quite warm with highs in the 90s.

Early look at Labor Day weekend weather

I know we are still more than a week away from the holiday weekend, but I know some of you are already looking and thinking ahead.

Confidence is growing that it's going to be a warm weekend for Kansas and surrounding areas. Look at the developing weather pattern from Wednesday - Sunday (Sep 1 - 4) A very large high pressure system is showing up on the maps right over Oklahoma and Arkansas. This will likely bring an end to the stormy weather, but also allow for some late summer weather to show up in Kansas. If this works out the way I think it will, we will have some very good lake weather for the unofficial end to summer.

September has been showing signs of being a warm month across the Plains. This is something we will take a look at when we put together the month long outlook. It's looking like we will see some stormy weather toward the end of our first week of September, which would also be about the time the Kansas State Fair begins in Hutch. Everyone says it rains during the fair, and this year just might live up to that too.

Stormy setup the rest of the week

Kansas is in the perfect spot to have several rounds of storms coming up the next several days. The biggest danger appears to be the threat of some heavier rainfall that could cause some flooding. I don't think we will see that many hail and/or wind storms.

Here's why we can't break out of the stormy stretch. The winds at roughly 20,000 feet above us are blowing right along the front (parallel), so it can't move much in either direction. And this leads to round after round of rainfall. 

European Model forecast for rain

GFS (American model) forecast for rain

Forecast model data continues to show central and eastern Kansas will get the heaviest rains. This data has changed from recent days, but between now and Saturday morning, several locations could get 1-2" of rain. 

Looking ahead to the start of next week:

Temperatures: Low 80s for highs

Humidity: High

Rain chances: Very low

Be sure to check in later this week as we look ahead to the holiday weekend forecast.

Next chance for storms/tropics/La Nina watch

Welcome to Tuesday. We are in our final full week of August and we've heard so many wonderful comments about the weather lately. Most of the state is in good shape with moisture and without the torturous humidity, it's been nice to be outside.

We do have a front coming into the area again this week. It will arrive Wednesday, so expect the storm chance to increase. I don't think the setup is as favorable for the flooding rains that some had Friday evening. It was just incredible seeing 4-5 inches per hour with storms in south central Kansas Friday night. Most of the models are showing "scattered" storms, so one here and one there. Severe weather chances are low.

The front will be slow moving, so that's why we see the chances for some rain lingering into Thursday. However, the rain chances on Thursday are only for some areas of southern Kansas, and even then, it shouldn't be much.

Still looks like much cooler weather will be here for some Wednesday - everyone by Thursday.

We are just weeks away from the peak of hurricane season. It's beginning to get active now with Tropical Storm Gaston and Hermine could be developing soon. Both storms are rather far away from land right now. If one of these storms is going to impact land, it would be Hermine because Gaston is likely to stay out over open waters.

Last year, we spent a great deal of time talking about El Nino. This year as we head into fall, we are under "La Nina watch". Remember, El Nino and La Nina are not storms. It is a warming/cooling of the ocean water that influences the storm track. Take a look at the recent sea surface temperatures. 

Cooler weather coming in - stormy pattern sets up

Typically, we don't get our first, fall cold front until we get into the month of September. But this year, it's arriving a few weeks early. We won't set any records, but this will feel so out of place when you consider what the actual date is.

Severe Threat:
We do have a chance for some severe storms today. The main threat will be some strong winds, small hail, and lightning of course. Storms will move east/southeast, and I think the severe threat will basically be over by midnight (if not before) It's possible we could see some one inch amounts in central or eastern Kansas, but most areas should get less than that (and it might even be less than .25 for western Kansas)

This blast of cool air is coming straight down from Canada, which also means our air will dry out drastically. Good bye humidity... at least for a few days.

Once we get passed this fall-like weekend, it does warm up a little next week, but mid and upper 80s is still a little cooler than normal. It's not a huge storm for next week, but some active weather coming in from the desert Southwest will lead to more chances for rain, beginning on Tuesday, but ramping up even more by Wednesday/Thursday. I don't think we are looking at severe storms, but some heavy rainfall looks very possible because once again, we will be dealing with a slow moving front by Wednesday. AND... more cool weather coming to Kansas toward the end of next week. Highs in the upper 70s and low 80s look to be on the way for the end of the week. Summer is slipping away.

Early fall weather - looking into September/Kansas State Fair

We are just 36 days away from the first day of fall and the weather is beginning to change. The jet stream winds (up about 30,000 feet) are starting to get stronger and the fronts will continue to get stronger. Fall is my favorite season because of the radical changes that occur in the atmosphere.

Throughout the week, we've been advertising a strong cold front that will usher in some early autumn air by the weekend. The forecast is fairly complex and we will have to try and pin down exactly when the rain moves in and when it moves out. It's not 100% clear yet how much cloudiness we will have this weekend, which will impact the temperatures even more. Confidence is very high though that most of us will have highs in the 70s for both Saturday and Sunday. This fall-like weather is going to blanket a big chunk of the central and northern Plains. As you look at the following maps, where you see the blue, that indicates a cooler airmass (red would indicate warmer air)

The unusual cool snap will ease early next week, but we are not headed for any big heat waves for the rest of the summer. I would expect the nice weather will continue with highs mainly in the 80s for the first half of next week. We are looking at some wet/stormy weather late next week (around August 25/26), and more cool weather expected for the final weekend in August. 

There should be a little bit of a warm up right at the end of the month where highs will likely climb back through the 80s to near 90.

Early September isn't very clear just yet, but some of the data is suggesting we could have wet weather to start the month. The first 10 days will be interesting as a developing storm takes aim at the western half of the country. This could be GREAT news for the wildfire situation across California. How will that storm impact us in Kansas? We will be watching it closely. I do feel confident in saying that as we approach mid September, warmer weather will be coming back! So don't put away the shorts just yet. Warmer than normal weather could show up during the Kansas State Fair. 

Fall making an early appearance?

Monday is here and we have reached the halfway point of August. Kids are heading back to school. We've had Chiefs preseason football on the air and I'm seeing more commercials for NFL coverage starting within the month. So fall isn't far off now.

Back at the beginning of the month, I made a prediction that the second half of the month looked cooler and we might have some early fall weather. It's right on schedule, but how long will it stick around? That's something we will take a closer look at in the coming days, but I will say this. I think we have seen the last of the 100 degree weather for the remainder of the summer. We may still have a heat index above 100, but air temperatures don't look to get that hot from here on out. We have not seen the last of the 90s though.

Next Rain Chances:
The cold front that pushes through on Friday will bring rain and thunderstorms to the area. There is some possibility that we could have a few severe storms, with hail, wind, and pockets of heavy rainfall. I'm posting rainfall forecasts from both the GFS model (American) and the European model tho show what areas could get the heavier amounts. Don't focus on the exact numbers because they will change throughout the week. We use maps like this as guidance - helping us pin down where the best chances for rain will be and to see where the heaviest may setup.

GFS model

Europoean model

One forecast model is showing highs in the 70s for next Saturday with much less humidity. There will be a fall-like feel to the weather for sure in about 4 days. Get ready!

The flooding down in Louisiana over the weekend was just so impressive. Here's a look at the radar estimates and the white/gray colors would easily indicate 15-20 inches of rain. There were so many water rescues and as we know, it takes a long time for that much water to find a place to go. That particular storm has just been stuck on the northern Gulf coast, but it's finally over the heaviest of the rain moved away yesterday. 

Time for a meteor shower - Are you ready for this?

Welcome to Wednesday and we have some very exciting things to look forward to during the remainder of this week. We are nearing the peak of the Perseid Meteor shower that will take place Thursday night/early Friday.

Here are the FAQ's when it comes to meteor showers:
1) Where do you look?

• For this meteor shower, just look straight up

2) When is the best time for viewing?

• Anytime after 11 p.m., but it should be even better after the moon goes down for the night, which won't happen until about 1:30 Friday morning. 

3) How many meteors can I expect?

• While it's not a guarantee, one might see up to 100 meteors per hour during the peak

4) Other tips

• Get away from street and city light pollution to enjoy the best views

This particular Perseid meteor shower might have more meteors than other years. That's because every 12 years, Jupiter's gravity pulls some extra particles in closer to Earth. Yes, Jupiter's gravity is to thank for the extra meteors we might see here on Earth. Cool, right? Let's hope clouds don't get in the way. Most of the state should have decent conditions, but northwest Kansas will have some storms in the area, and the viewing may be less than ideal.

Look at what is coming this way for the weekend. Behind the chance for rain on Friday/Saturday morning, not only will we get some cooler weather, but the humidity should be going down some. It's not going to be a blast of fall weather, but the drop in humidity will be noticeable. I'm showing you the dew points here. The dew point is a measure of how much moisture is in the air, and we've been close to 70 for much of the summer. It looks like we could see dew points drop into the 50s/low 60s by Saturday (west) and Sunday everywhere else. Should be a very nice weekend!

From mild to hot... changes ahead

The rain just keeps coming and coming. I know there are some locations that had more than 5 or 6 inches of rain this weekend. Believe it or not, but last Thursdays cold front stalled over the area and has been hanging around for several days. It's finally beginning to wash out today and our chances for storms will be going down quickly. A few storms may pop up tonight (Monday night) over the area, but they will be few and far between. 

We still expect to see hotter temperatures kicking in for Tuesday and Wednesday. Looks like we will head back into the 90s. I don't think there will be very many (maybe not any) 100 degree days this week. The high humidity and wet ground should hold the temperatures back even when the sun comes out. 

There is a storm system west of the Rockies that will be impacting the area by Thursday evening/Friday. It's going to drive another cold front down into Kansas, which will help develop storms at the end of the week. Our temperatures should cool down into the 80s too.

Some 24 hour rainfall totals (through 7 a.m. today)

Wichita: 3.21"
KWCH Studio: 1.97"
Winfield: 0.92"
Hutch: 0.74"
Newton: 0.56"

24 Hour Rainfall - ending Friday morning

Here are some rainfall amounts through 7 a.m. Friday morning. Heavier amounts were very isolated.

Wichita: 1.07"
Newton: 0.96"
Hays: 0.91"
Liberal: 0.79"
Smith Center: 0.69"
Hill City; 0.58"
Russell: 0.57"
Hutch: 0.30"
Garden City: 0.26"
Salina: 0.24"
Medicine Lodge: 0.18"
Concordia: 0.08"
Winfield: 0.05"
Goodland: 0.01"
Dodge City: Trace

If you didn't get any rain or still need more, we will have off and on chances or rain into the weekend. Right now, I would expect most of it will take place during the night.

Hot and dry weather is expected to return early next week. Have a great week!

Storms are back and look at this cool down

Welcome to Thursday. We are almost halfway through our first week in August and it's about what you'd expect. Highs continue to be in the 90s and low 100s. It's not unheard of to have 100 degree heat into early September, so this isn't unusual at all.

Our weather is about to get more exciting with the arrival of a cold front into Kansas today. Here's what's coming with the front:

1) thunderstorms (some heavy rain, lightning, and wind)

2) cooler temperatures (especially across central and northern Kansas)

3) very low risk of severe storms

Thursday afternoon

Friday afternoon

It will be hot for today (Thursday), but we could have a 20-30 degree spread in temperatures Friday afternoon. That's pretty amazing for a summer afternoon, but it does get more common as we get closer to the first day of fall (still well over a month away). 

There is rain in the forecast and the heaviest will setup across western and northern Kansas. The farther south you get, the more spotty it will be and not as heavy. The chances will linger through much of the weekend. I think we could see another round of rain Friday night AND again Saturday night. It doesn't look like severe storms for the weekend. 

So what's next? I expect that at the beginning of next week, the heat's going to try and build back across the area. Our second week of August will be hot, and that should continue until Thursday or Friday (August 11/12) when another front may arrive with some rain chances. 

Earlier this week, I hinted at some cooler weather that may show up in the second half of August. I still think that will be the case, but I still think we have a couple of mini heat waves to go through before we get the early taste of fall. We will have to be patient, but I'm excited for the changing temperatures. I can't believe some kids head back to school next week.

An outlook for August

Thanks for spending a little time reading the blog today. It is Election Day and for many heading to the polls, we will be braving the heat. I suppose by this point of the summer, most of us are getting used to it and know how to beat the heat, but we still have to be on guard for heat illness. 

At the risk of getting some backlash over making some kind of prediction like this, I'm going to follow through with it and update it as we see fit. There is a particular kind of computer model that we have access to, called an "ensemble" that can help us look farther into the future. It helps us figure out patterns and trends, and based on that, we can make some kind of prediction weeks out. I'm not able to forecast specifics for each day, but by looking at the patterns, we can make a forecast with some degree of confidence. 

Beginning of August:

The most recent stretch of hot weather should roll on for several more days. In fact, it may linger into the middle of next week. During this period, I'm expecting most of our temperatures will be at or above normal (mainly 90s and some 100s). There will be occasional chances for rain, but they look to remain scattered. A front arriving Thursday night/Friday (Aug 4/5) will be one of the better chances here at the start of the month.

Next weekend (Aug 9/10): Some possibility of a storm system coming through the northern Plains, driving a cold front down across Kansas. This may lead to storms and a bit of a cool down. It's unclear what kind of rainfall amounts we may be looking at.

Aug 16-18:

The dome of high pressure will try to return. It doesn't look overly strong, but it may lead to a brief hot spell in the middle of the month. 

Aug 20-24: I'm expecting the weather may turn active again. The dome of high pressure will get shoved out of the area altogether and we may get some much cooler weather coming our way. How long it will last and how much cooler is somewhat uncertain, but I think we could have some more comfortable weather coming our way. We should have some pretty good chances for rain toward the end of the month too, but once again, I'm not able to forecast specifics right now. 

I enjoy making longer range predictions because I think some of the data available to us is better now than it ever has been. It is definitely a challenge but as we move through the month, I'll keep you updated on any changes that will be coming our way. 

July rains/August heat - watching the tropics

Monday is here and welcome to August. This is a month where you'll definitely begin to notice the days getting shorter. We have over 14 hours of daylight here at the beginning of the month, but by August 31st, it's down to 13 hours. Our average high changes very little, going from 92 to 89.

July was a wet month for a bunch of areas, but not everywhere. Wichita was slammed by heavy rains over the 4th of July. So that gave us a boost and makes it one of the wetter July periods on record. Dodge City ended up with above normal rainfall. But it's a little different for Salina and Goodland, which both ended up below normal on moisture.

Wichita: 9.67" (+6.35 for July)

Dodge City: 5.30" (+2.22" for July)

Salina: 2.33" (-1.96" for July)

Goodland: 2.75" (-0.72" for July)

I'll take one more day to look at the long range models and try to get a handle on what's coming for the first 2-3 weeks of the month. We already know this will be a hot week, and there's a good chance most of next week will be too. But I'm confident we will not see a punishing heat wave or drought developing this month. In fact, we may just get an early taste of fall toward the end of August. I know we could make a lot of people happy if we could just get rid of some of the humidity. It's been stubborn to say the least.

We finally have something to watch in the tropics. There is an area of disturbed weather heading for Jamaica and Cuba. It's possible that before we get through Tuesday, we may have a tropical storm. The forecast track is likely going to continue west/northwest.