October preview - First frost potential

The month of October can be an exciting month. It's a month that can have thunderstorms, frost, and even the first snowfall. Take a look at the map. Our average first fall frost usually happens in early October for northwest and some of north central Kansas. It's much later than that (on average) for southern Kansas.

So here are my thoughts on October weather in Kansas. (click on any image to make it larger) I think there is a strong tendency for this to be a very active month with SEVERAL cold fronts coming through. Initially, for the beginning of the month, most of the energy with the storms will go north of Kansas across the northern Plains. What does that mean? Basically, we get wind, some rainfall (not excessive), and changing temperatures, but the more exciting part of the storm goes north of us.

Interesting note - the maps below show Matthew going into the southern Gulf of Mexico and then pushing it toward Mexico. 

Pattern - October 7/8

Some of the computer data in recent days have suggest stormy weather ramping up toward the middle of the month. Where these storms track is something we will watch closely and what makes our job very exciting this time of year. Goodland average 2-3 inches of snow in October. Are we about to see snow in parts of Kansas in October? It's a very risky forecast to make, but I think one of the storms in October will produce at least some snow in northwest Kansas or very nearby. So most of the exciting weather may just come in the middle of the month. Let's keep an eye on this period. This could be the first widespread frost for some. 

If the middle of the month is stormy, it should be followed by a brief period of calming weather where a new storm may form out in the Pacific Northwest. While that may not be a big storm for Kansas, there is at least some possibility of it driving colder air down into our area and maybe giving western Kansas it's first freeze. 

Toward the 2nd half of October, we will continue in an active setup, but the heavier precipitation could stay north and east of us, while we just get the much cooler air filtering south. This kind of pattern wouldn't likely produce much moisture in Kansas, but would yield a chilly end to the month.

Thanks for taking time to read the blog. I very much enjoy looking long range at weather patterns to find clues as to what may be coming our way. It's the part of meteorology that we still have SO much to learn. Our 7 day forecasts have improved greatly in the last 5-8 years. Imagine if we had a 14 or 15 day forecast on the evening news every night?

Beautiful fall weather - next storm on the maps

Our weather this week is just something else. This is the kind of weather most of us would like to bottle up and save for another day or time of year. It's truly the reason I love fall more than any other time of year.

When I got to work yesterday and started looking at the forecast data, one of the things that struck me was the lack of clouds. Consider for a moment that you could hop in the car and drive 1700 miles to the west coast and not see a single cloud. Or you could drive to southern Canada (a little over 900 miles) and still not encounter any clouds. That's a quiet weather pattern.

This all comes at a good time as we wait for the flood waters to go down in Iowa and across the upper Midwest. We still have some puddles and standing water of our own that need to dry up. However, we are hearing from some of you in western Kansas that need a little more rain.

Forecast rainfall - GFS model

Forecast rainfall - European model

The next chance will come with a developing storm that shows up in the west late in the weekend. The storms will get more interesting to watch because (as we saw last week), some of them will start producing different precipitation types. Forecasting will get more difficult as the weather changes become more dramatic. The next storm looks like it could be fairly impressive, but without much humidity, I don't think we are looking at big rainfall.

Tomorrow on the blog, we will take a closer look at October weather. This is usually a time of year where things begin to get interesting.

Friday wrap up - complete 180 on the weather next week

I hope everyone has a nice weekend. It won't be a washout, but we will have some rain around for part of the weekend. I'll admit, it's a little exciting to see the snow coming down on a Friday night in Colorado. Fall is my favorite time of the year as the seasons begin changing.

Weekend rainfall:
Still looks like the heaviest will be over central and eastern Kansas. There are enough ingredients coming together to expect thunderstorms, but the severe threat will be very low. If something does ramp up and become severe, I don't expect it to last long. If you are west of Hays to Dodge City, this weekend doesn't offer up much rain for you.

What to watch next week:
It will mainly be a quiet week for Kansas, but MUCH cooler than this week has been. Our weekend storm will spin around over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest and that should keep us in a quiet weather setup.

Could see more tropical development

We will keep an eye on the Pacific! Another tropical storm could form (which would get the name Roslyn) and move toward Baja California. This would be the 3rd or 4th storm to do just that. It's possible some of that leftover moisture could get this far northeast, but still so much uncertainty this far out.

Mars & Saturn: They will be visible in the evening sky if you are looking southwest.

That's it for now. Millie has a big birthday on Sunday and I'll be on the Sunday morning show. Have a good weekend.

Did you know this about fall? And BIG pattern swings next few weeks

Welcome to fall and almost equal day and night. Why don't we have exactly equal day and night on the equinox? Well, it can be a little complicated, but here's what's happening.

• Sunrise/sunset is calculated by the time sun's disk is visible over the horizon, or when it fully disappears at sunset - taking several minutes. This time is added to the day and not the night. 
• The other reason is because Earth's atmosphere bends light, creating an illusion of the sun to rise earlier/set later than it actually does. This adds about 6 minutes to the amount of daylight, which throws off the "equal day and night" from the equinox.

Now that we've had that brief science lesson, let's get into what is coming our way with the storm system headed for Kansas this weekend. 

Dry for Thursday!

Friday:

Chances for storms will arrive into far western Kansas after 7 p.m. They will be very spotted and unlikely to be severe.

Late Friday/early Saturday:

Rain and a few thunderstorms will try to spread into central Kansas. Again, this should be scattered and non-severe.

Saturday afternoon-night/early Sunday:

Western Kansas sees the rain come to an end, but some of the best chances for soaking rains will be over the eastern half of the state.

Next Week:

We finally see autumn temperatures arriving with highs mainly in the 70s! Should turn out to be a pretty nice week of weather. However, warm weather is over just yet. 

LAST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER

EARLY OCTOBER WEATHER PATTERN

Take a look at this high pressure system that should be setting up early in October! This will likely mean a return to some 80 degree weather (maybe close to 90) for about the first week of October. So it's a little of both coming in the next few weeks. Summer this week, fall next week, and then back to some late summer weather. 

Preview to early October weather... what's headed our way?

Summertime heat refuses to back down this week as we continue with temperatures running 10-15 degrees above normal. It's not that unusual to have lower 90s, but mid and upper 90s will threaten records. That's where we will be today, so let's watch and see if we beat any of the current records. 

What to expect for the end of September/beginning of October:

I love looking at the long range patterns and trying to give you as much advanced notice of changes and big storms that might impact Kansas weather. We aren't always going to be right, but some of the data that goes out 15-20 days has been fairly accurate as of late. I enjoy looking beyond the 7 day forecast to what is coming next.

Pattern - Sep 28

The end of September looks mild for Kansas (highs around 80) and the chances for stormy weather should continue. Where you see the dark shades of blue in the western US, that is a developing storm system that could impact our weather here with chances for rain right around the end of the month. 

Pattern - Oct. 2

When the jet stream winds (up about 30,000 feet) come out of the southwest, there's an increased chance we will have some rain chances around the area. That particular setup will hold through the first 5-7 days of October, with temperatures running near or above normal. So I would expect to see several days where highs may be close to 80. The cool, almost chilly fall weather is definitely gathering across the northern tier of the US. There will be occasional periods in October where that will be moving south, so even though the beginning of October doesn't look that cool, there are signs that the middle of the month could be quite cool for Kansas. Stay tuned. 

Summertime is back - but for how long?

Suddenly we have slipped back into a summertime pattern. If you remember back at the beginning of the month, I was talking about how September looked like it could be a warm month. So far though, it's been pretty normal with highs in the 70s and 80s, but now, it's back to summer warmth. Highs in the 90s won't get us many record high temperatures, but it's warmer than the normal high.

What's going on?
There is a return to a summer-like pattern over the central and southern Plains. High pressure is bringing an end to the recent wet and stormy pattern. The storm track is back to the north and we shouldn't see much rain this week. There will be a few storm chances across northern Kansas during the middle of the week, but that should be about it.

When does fall weather return?
Fall officially begins on Thursday at 9:21 a.m. but we may not see any significant cool down until we get to next weekend. There's a pretty nice storm system that will be pushing east and coming over the Continental Divide late in the week. Chances for storms will increase once again by Saturday/Sunday (timing is always a little suspect this far out), but cooler, fall-like weather should return by Sunday at the latest.

Our newest meteorologist Sarah Fletcher will be on the air at 9 p.m. tonight. We've been working with her now for over a week and she's excited to make her debut on the KSCW.

Major influence on winter weather is already changing... take a look

With fall weather arriving and so many people coming by our KWCH booth on the fairgrounds asking about winter, I figured it was appropriate to post an update on this. Nearly a month ago, it had looked like La Nina was going to be a rather significant influence on the weather pattern heading into fall and winter. You might remember that nearly a year ago at this time we were talking about a HUGE El Nino.

Here's the difference between them:
El Nino - unseasonably warm water in the Pacific along the Equator
La Nina - unseasonably cool water in the Pacific along the Equator

Check the latest satellite image to show there is cool water gathering near the Equator, but it's not expected to strengthen much. So as we move through fall and winter, we will be looking at borderline "La Nina" conditions. The La Nina watch has been dropped at this time.

Even if we had a clear signal right now on La Nina, we still wouldn't know with 100% accuracy what the winter would have in store. It's a very complex prediction to make when it comes to seasonal forecasts. So stay tuned.

More rain soon..
We still expect the majority of our rain this week to arrive tomorrow (Thursday) and continue Thursday night/early Friday. We haven't seen much the last 2-3 days, but we still have a stormy setup coming. Be on the lookout for some widespread rains, especially east of a line from Hays to Dodge City, where several areas could see over an inch. It would only take about 1-2 inches in a few hours to create flash flooding. Rain begins to move out over the weekend. We need about a month to dry out, but that's not going to happen for awhile.

More wet weather - but a break is coming in the pattern

Tuesday is here and we are fast approaching the halfway point of September. The state fair is in full swing and some of you came by the booth when I was there Sunday asking me to turn off the faucet. I don't recall a state fair where so many visitors were saying the same thing. Usually, it is the other way around.

Setup this week:

We do have more rain in the forecast, but here's the real difference from last week to this week. HUMIDITY... you can feel the air is drier than it was last week. We don't have a tropical connection like we did last week. AND, take a look at this satellite picture. There is a high pressure near the Gulf that is shutting the moisture feed down. Bottom line... we will get rain this week, but it won't be the major flooding like we saw last week.

Best rain chances:

There is a storm coming in from the west, and it should arrive Wednesday night - Friday. That's when Kansas will have it's best shot at rain. There are a couple of forecast models that show most of the state getting 1-2 inch amounts.

What can we expect next?

This stormy setup may continue through about the middle of next week (September 21st). After that, for the last 8-10 days of September, the pattern will shift to a west/northwest setup, where we should hit a drier stretch of weather. 

Incredible flooding - when does it end

Good morning everyone and happy Friday. Incredible rainfall and flooding strikes again. Places that just had major rains about 3-4 weeks ago have been hit once again. Rainfall amounts over 9 inches are coming in from southern Sedgwick county and the pictures are amazing. 

 4 NW Clearwater: 9.31"

SW Butler County: 9"

Derby: 8.90"

Eisenhower (Wichita): 6.58"

Kingman: 5.50"

Wichita is pushing closer to 4th wettest year on record. We need another 10 inches of rain to rival the wettest year on record (which was 2008).

Storms Friday:

Here's an update - we expect scattered storms after 4 or 5 p.m. A few may produce some strong winds and smaller hail, but #1 on our list is more flooding. Our latest Future Track model has scattered storms from Salina to Wichita and southeast by 9 p.m. By the time we get to 11:30, the biggest rains will be over southeast Kansas. Those areas absolutely don't need more rain, but we could see another 1-3" with the next round. 

9:30 Friday night

11:30 Friday night

Part of the reason for the heavy, soaking rains is the leftover tropical moisture from Newton. The other piece is that we just a have a slow moving front that is stuck right over south central Kansas. I've lost count how many of these slow moving fronts we've had this summer, but it's been more than a half dozen.

Pattern Change:

Once our cold front moves through, we get rid of the humidity and the rain chances for awhile. A strong cold front will enter Kansas early next week (Monday), and look what happens to our temperatures. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s for most of the state for Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday. Incredible fall like feel coming our way soon.

Tropical connection with Newton - hello fall

Tropical moisture will be headed toward Kansas in the coming days! The leftovers from what was Hurricane Newton will continue to move northeast and drench the southwestern US. Eventually, this moisture will help create more heavy rains across Kansas and surrounding areas. This is only the 6th time a tropical storm has directly impacted Arizona. 

Tale of two fronts:

We continue to watch a slow (nearly stationary) front that is setup across Kansas today and tomorrow. The chance for scattered storms will be focused over central and eastern Kansas today (Wednesday), and over southern Kansas into Thursday evening. 

The second front to watch is coming Friday, which will bring rain to the Kansas State Fair. Some of the rain could be heavy, with an inch or two possible for many areas. Forecast models are indicating that some 3 inch amounts may fall over south central or southeast Kansas. Watch for flooding.

Fall weather returns:

There are two particular time periods where there will be a fall-like feel to the weather. Saturday - highs will drop back into the 70s with lighter winds AND lower humidity.

Tuesday/Wednesday (next week) - get ready for some even cooler weather as parts of northwest Kansas may not escape the 60s. Normal highs are in the upper 80s, so that would put us below normal for a little while. 

 

Heavy rain threat continues - more wild swings

I'm back after a little extra time off over the holiday weekend. Hope you had a nice Labor Day. It's been a summer of flooding in many different areas of Kansas. Just look at this abbreviated list of places that have had flooding this summer:
Rose Hill, Mulvane, Ellsworth, McPherson, Wichita, Norton Co., Ellis Co., Decatur Co., Russell Co.

Estimated rainfall from radar (over the weekend) - click on image to enlarge

More heavy rain possible!
Once again, we are up against a slow moving front that will stall somewhere over Kansas, and heading into Thursday/Friday, there's bound to be more pockets of flooding rains. AND Hurricane Newton slammed into Baja California this morning. Some of that moisture will get pulled into the central Plains, which also raises the concern for some heavier rains.

GFS (American Model)

European Model

Fall Weather Watch:
Another big blast of cool, fall weather is coming south and will arrive into the weekend. The humidity will get pushed away and highs may only be in the 70s for Saturday.

Fair Week:
I expect we will see more big temperature swings during the full week of the fair. Computer models are indicating a rather warm start to the week (Monday/Tuesday), but we could be headed back for some fall weather by the middle of the week.

Last week, I put out a month long forecast indicating this would be a rather warm month. So far, that's holding up pretty good. We do have some cooler days in the near future, but they will likely be brief, with warm stretches dominating for most of the month (especially in the second half of September)