Record warmth/possible storm brewing/who is building snowmen?

Feels good to get to Friday, but is it spring or fall? Or summer? We thought there would be several warm spells this month, but I didn't think it would take over the ENTIRE month. Only 5 days this month with cooler than normal weather... crazy!

If you read the blog faithfully, you know that we've addressed the reason why it's so warm. We have a summer pattern in October. So why aren't we having more 90s and 100s. Bottom line is that the sun is much lower in the sky than it is in July or August. That's why it's not getting as hot right now as it would in July or August. But to have a massive high pressure system parked over New Mexico and Texas right now is just ridiculous (but not unheard of). While we deal with record warmth, snow has returned to the Great Lakes and the New England states. Check out the snowman just outside of the National Weather Service in Gaylord, MI.

Gaylord, MI

Here are the daily records for the rest of October:

Friday

• Wichita: 83
• Salina: 89
• Russell: 84
• Dodge City: 85
• Garden City: 83
• Goodland: 86

Saturday

• Wichita: 86
• Salina: 93
• Russell: 84
• Dodge City: 88
• Garden City: 92
• Goodland: 90

Sunday

• Wichita: 88
• Salina: 88
• Russell: 88
• Dodge City: 89
• Garden City: 90
• Goodland: 91

Halloween:

• Wichita: 85
• Salina: 85
• Russell: 85
• Dodge City: 87
• Garden City: 88
• Goodland: 87

GFS Model

European Model

Next Week:

The week will start out with incredible warmth as high temperatures will threaten records again for Halloween. But as is sometimes the case, just as we turn the calendar into November, the weather begins to change. Models are indicating a storm developing off to the southwest by Tuesday/Wednesday. Will it bring widespread moisture back to the area? The track will be key because if it ends up too far northwest, we won't get any rain at all. Let's watch the trend as we get closer in time.

Have a great weekend!

Rainfall totals - Record watch Friday

Rainfall totals through 7 a.m. Wednesday:

Winfield: 0.99"

Wichita: 0.92"

Salina: 0.72"

Jabara Airport: 0.40"

Hutch: 0.25"

Newton: 0.22"

Pratt: 0.11"

Russell: 0.09"

Medicine Lodge: 0.05"

Garden City: Trace

Radar estimates that most of the heavier amounts (over .50") were somewhat isolated. I know the lightning and thunder woke me up, but it didn't take long for them to pass and the weather now settles down. In fact, there won't be anymore rain now for at least another week.

Record Watch:

We are already in the top 5 warmest Octobers on record in Salina. Wichita is tied for the 6th warmest and there's still 6 days where we could bump up even higher in the rankings. 

Just look at the forecast heading into Friday. WOW! This is incredible for late October. We will likely have close to half dozen record highs because afternoon warmth will be 20-25 warmer than average. 

Some of you are asking if it will ever cool down. It will. I'm starting to see signs of bigger temperature changes, but we may not see much of it until after the first week of November. Winter is coming and our winter forecast will be on the air November 7th. 

What has happened to October? And look at the Arctic!

Less than a week to go and we will say goodbye to October. This has just been a very interesting month from a temperature standpoint. Our cool spells this month have been brief and there haven't been many stormy days since the beginning of the month when we tracked a few tornadoes across central and eastern Kansas. Take a look at the numbers:

• 5 days below normal
• 19 days above normal
• 2 days with record highs
• Latest 100 degree temperature ever recorded for Kansas
• Average high temperature so far: 77 (normal high goes from 76 to 64 during the month)

It's very possible that every day from here on through Halloween will be above normal, and we might see more record highs later this week. What is going on?

Take a look at the weather pattern. I would expect this in the middle of July or August, but not October. And it's not just Kansas either. Several areas are expected to have above normal temperatures throughout the central and southern Plains. A huge storm just off the west coast will continue to keep things active west of the Rockies, but most of the active weather will stay west and north of us.

We are working on our winter forecast that will come out on November 7th. I wish we had more time to put it together and analyze the data, but we will put together our thoughts and predictions so that you can be planning ahead. If October weather is any indication, we won't have a winter at all. But we know these 80s won't last too much longer and big changes are coming.

The graph above shows the sea ice melt taking place in the Arctic. We reach a minimum level of sea ice usually in September, then it turns the corner as colder weather starts returning. The amount of sea ice is below where it was in 2012 (which was a record warm year). It will be interesting to see where it goes for the rest of the year. Data collected shows that most of the substantial warming is happening in the wintertime.

Quiet weekend, then a chance for rain

We have a sunny and milder forecast on the way for the weekend. Last week at this time, we were preparing for a return to summer (as you may recall, record highs were set on Sunday and Monday) Even though the weather pattern is about to change and allow warm weather to come back, it won't be record setting.

Dodge City National Weather Service posted this image yesterday on Twitter. I love these rainfall summary maps because they clearly show who's been missed by the moisture. And the southwest needs rain again to help get the wheat going. The chance for rain on Tuesday (Oct 25) will be with a weak low pressure system and a cold front coming through the state. Even though the Gulf of Mexico moisture will be flowing north, it doesn't look like western Kansas will see much from this chance for rain. Rainfall amounts might be close to .50" in some spots, but we will need to watch a few more model runs before we can really say for sure how much we'll get.

NOAA issues their winter outlook:

Another winter forecast was released yesterday from NOAA, so you might see this come up in your social feed somewhere. It doesn't tell us anything for Kansas, but does suggest the south will be warm and the north will be cold. They are also calling for wet weather in the northern Rockies, with drought conditions continuing across southern California.

We are still piecing together information for our winter forecast that will be coming out on November 7th. Long range forecasting is tough, but I'll share with you as much as I know to help you prepare for the winter season.

Where is our next storm... and is someone talking about snow?

Sure seems like we've had some nice fall weather, but it never wants to hang around for very long. Take for example today... highs in the 60s, but already looking at the next big weather pattern change for the weekend and it spells WARM! Once again, we will find ourselves in no man's land when it comes to stormy weather, rain, or cool, fall weather. Highs will be running about 10-15 degrees above normal as the jet stream (or storm track) goes back north.

What's the outlook for rain next week? Parts of western Kansas have gone nearly 50 days without measurable moisture. Timing and location of the next batch of moisture is a little uncertain. It's a difficult forecast, but one encouraging sign is that the forecast models agree stormy weather returns to the west coast. We are not sure if that big "L" in the West will make it all the way to Kansas, but pieces of it may break off and move our way. That's what we are banking on in an effort to hopefully bring some rain chances back to Kansas. Gulf of Mexico moisture starts pumping north on Monday, so we will watch and see how that plays into our rain chances during the week.

When is our first freeze coming? I've been asked this question quite a bit lately, and all I can say is it doesn't look like it's anytime soon. Even if we get a storm toward the end of next week, the amount of cold air with the storm is lacking. So for now, I'd say our first freeze is easily 10-14 days away (perhaps even more)

One Facebook post I saw yesterday was a little alarming. It comes from some source in Oklahoma already talking about a snowstorm in the Plains around November 2nd. This seems VERY unlikely, even if we have a storm forming nearby. There isn't much cold air showing up on the models right now (even in the long range), so any post you see on social media suggesting snow, I'd hesitate to believe it.

What's happened to the rain and La Nina watch

What we saw yesterday in Kansas was beyond crazy for October. It's one thing to have record high temperatures, but to have the last 100 degree reading ever for Kansas take place on October 17th is just flat out weird. And to go along with it, October 17th is even later than Las Vegas' last 100 degree temperature in October (that record is October 4th)

We are slipping back to fall weather now and even though we are looking at another big warm up next weekend, it's unlikely we will climb out of the 80s. Normal highs are now in the 60s, so we shouldn't be getting much above 80. Ridiculous Kansas weather sometimes.

What has happened to the rains in western Kansas? It was such a remarkable summer with steady rains and such wonderful moisture, but since September 1st, the faucet has been turned off. Look at these numbers:

• Since September 1st
• Dodge City: 0.40"
• Garden City: 0.19"
• Goodland: 2.53"
• Wichita: 12.42"

Wichita and much of south central Kansas could go awhile longer without rain and be just fine. But we need some moisture in the west in order to give the newly planted wheat crop a boost. Unfortunately, as I mentioned last week here on the blog, chances for moisture between now and the end of the month are quite slim. Another high pressure ridge sets up for early next week, and that's not the news that western Kansas needs.

For those assuming that a wet summer means we are in for a wet winter... this latest trend toward drier should put those assumptions to rest. There's no way we can draw those conclusions based on what's happened so far this year. We are still studying the patterns and watching the changes before we can make any predictions into the winter season.

We are officially back on "La Nina Watch" as water temperatures near the Equator continue to cool. For awhile, it looked like we might be "neutral = no El Nino and no La Nina", but now it looks like water temperatures will be just cool enough to qualify. So if we end up with a weak La Nina, what does that mean for wintertime in Kansas? It's not an easy answer, but when we issue our winter forecast, I'll do some more explaining how it could play into the forecast. 

October surprise & sneak peek to Halloween

October is zipping by and we will pass the halfway point this weekend. The weather this weekend sure won't feel like mid-October as all of sudden, the weather pattern is going to look like July. In fact, take a look at the similarities between July 12 and the forecast pattern for October 17. Remarkable! About the only differences are the exact locations of the H and L, but they aren't off by much. All of this means we are about to see summer weather returning to Kansas.

The image below is the raw data from July 12. If you love looking at weather maps, you can see for yourself how similar the pattern is to July.

As you would expect, there's a good chance we will be close to record highs beginning Sunday and continuing into Monday. This hot weather will have much of us wondering what is going on. Fall weather is taking a vacation until the middle of next week.

What can we expect for the 2nd half of October? I'm doing the best I can with the data that's in front of me and trying to help you go WAY beyond the 7 day that we show on TV. It looks like warm weather is going to dominate and there's not much chance for significant rainfall between now and the end of the month. So let's concentrate on temperatures here. 

Now - Monday: Warmer than normal temperatures expected - dry and windy

Tuesday - Friday: Cooling off with near to below normal temperatures - dry and feeling like October

Saturday (Oct 22) - Tuesday (Oct 25) - Warming back up with highs near 80 degrees - unlikely for any 90s and still not much sign of any solid rainfall coming our way

Oct. 26/27 - There could be a cold front coming through on either one of these days, so that should send us back to October weather leading right up to Halloween. 

Oct 31 - It's looking like we will have mild/warm temperatures for Halloween. That will likely translate to highs in the 70s (maybe near 80) and I don't think there will be any rain to dampen the holiday.

As I've mentioned before, I enjoy long range forecasting. It's not a perfect science, but the data is getting better. I'm also going to be working on a winter forecast, but that won't come out until mid to late November. 

Signs of winter - but summer weather isn't over

Just an incredible change in the weather for today! Hopefully you were prepared for it as some places will be more than 30 degrees cooler than yesterday. Liberal hit 90 Tuesday afternoon, but that will be a distant memory with the strong north winds bringing fall weather back.

The weather change we are feeling today led to snow in Montana and North Dakota yesterday. There were a few places that picked up 3-4 inches, leading to slushy roads and an early taste of winter. It's not uncommon for the northern Plains to have some snow in October (after all, it's not uncommon for northwest Kansas to see some this month either)

Frost/Freeze concerns:

Central and northern Kansas should be on the lookout for mid 30s early Thursday, so cover your plants if you want to save them another day.

Are we done with summer?

Nope... not yet. Just take a look at the warmer air that comes surging back early next week. WOW! There's a chance we will see some 90s sneaking back into the southwest, while much of the state will be looking at 80s once again. We are definitely in transition and feels like Mother Nature can't decide what season she wants it to be.

Coming up at the end of this week, we will take a look into the 2nd half of October. Early signs point toward much chillier weather to close out the month... even stormy too. Hope you'll check back.

Look what's back in Kansas & very active pattern continues

We are moving into the middle of October and the weather pattern is quite active. It seems like every few days, a cold front shows up on the maps and we start talking about change, but that's not unusual as we continue to transition toward winter.

Drought monitor released October 4

Kansas has essentially been drought free (according the national drought monitor) since the middle of May. But last week, the latest drought monitor was released, indicating "abnormally dry" conditions have returned to the southwest. So many of the recent rain events have gone too far east to do western Kansas any good.

Back at the beginning of the month, I posted the image above which showed a very active pattern and a potential storm brewing in the Plains. We do have a couple of storm systems that will move our way, but none of them look overly intense. Even though the storms don't look that intense, the temperature changes will be BIG!

Tuesday/Wednesday:

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY

Thursday: FROST POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KANSAS! Then, a weak system is going to push in from the west, but moisture is limited and it's a fast mover. I expect a few showers, but it won't be anything huge or widespread. Rainfall amounts will likely be .25" or less.

Weekend/early next week:
We will likely see a rather big warming trend for the central Plains. I'm expecting that once we hit the weekend, most of Kansas will be looking at highs near 80 degrees and that should continue into the start of next week.

Understanding hurricanes & Matthew's potential

My Facebook feed is full of Hurricane Matthew coverage and understandably so. It looks like this will be the first major hurricane to impact the US in more than 10 years, and the last major hurricanes to strike Florida were Dennis and Wilma (and Wilma was the strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin) in 2005.

There are some important things to keep in mind as we track this major hurricane right along the coast in the coming days. Hurricane formation is key on a few things:

1) Water temperatures of 80 degrees or warmer is key

2) You can't have strong upper level winds, or it will tear the storm apart

3) Dry air in the middle atmosphere will also work against hurricane formation

4) Hurricanes like to be away from friction (i.e. mountains, hills, land masses, etc)

Look at the water temperatures around Florida. They are easily warmer than 80 degrees, and Matthew looks to pass over the Gulf Stream today and tonight. That is a warm channel of water that goes up the East Coast. The warm water is VERY deep too... roughly 300-400 feet deep. So there's more than enough warmth to allow this thing to get stronger.

If you look at the upper air winds, surrounding Matthew, winds are less than 15 mph. So there's not much wind to interfere. Now, I know you are thinking, "well isn't a hurricane full of wind?" Yes! A hurricane is all about wind, but that's down at the ground. The wind can't be in the mid and upper atmosphere. Higher level winds will rip the storm apart.

And finally, the most dangerous part of a hurricane is the right front quadrant. Why? Look at the example graphic. The combination of the forward speed (20 mph) plus the storm winds (100 mph) would give you 120 mph winds on the right side of the storm. On the left side, the storm movement (20 mph) subtracts from the storm winds of 100 mph. So as we watch the storm go along the coast, remember, it's the right side that's the worst.

The official track takes it along the coast, potentially landfall near the Kennedy Space Center. It COULD hook around to the east and then move back toward the Bahamas early next week. Yes! That erratic movement is possible given the steering winds in the upper atmosphere. What a very interesting storm.

Severe threat Tuesday - stormy week continues

Severe weather in October isn't that unusual. If you take a look at the number of days with severe storms since 2000, it's actually somewhat comparable to the number of days we get in March. The season ramps up and peaks in late May/early June, and then it has to taper down, which it's doing right now. 

Morning storms have departed, and now we watch and see how much clearing we get in advance of the approaching cold front. The latest storm outlook hasn't changed too much, still suggesting that central and south central Kansas will have the highest potential of seeing severe weather.

Our Future Track model continues to show a line of storms firing after 4 p.m. and moving east from there. I think this will quickly transition to a wind threat with some occasional hail too. By 10 or 11 p.m. tonight, we should have most of the storms out of our coverage area and into southeast Kansas.

Wednesday: Looks fairly quiet around the area - no severe storms expected

Thursday: A strong surge of cool air will be coming south and running into some moisture over Kansas. We will once again see another chance for rain and storms Thursday afternoon/evening. Some of the rain will be heavy in spots, but the threat for severe storms is less likely.

After this stormy week, we could see possible frost for central and western Kansas early Saturday morning. Just a heads up if there are some precautions you need to take.

Wind, severe storms, and when will fall weather be back

Hope everyone had a nice weekend. We were spoiled last week with some incredible fall weather across Kansas. It was a nice break from the wind and humidity. The areas that needed to dry out finally had a chance to do so.

Wind & blowing dust today:

Western Kansas will see wind gusts over 40 mph Monday afternoon and this could create blowing dust.

Tuesday (severe weather potential):

This is the day we will put most of our focus on as severe weather chances return to the Plains. A very large storm is churning through the west and this will help generate thunderstorms with some hail and high winds. Some morning showers are possible Tuesday morning, but the better chances for storms and severe weather will arrive in the mid to late afternoon hours. Our Future Track shows the morning showers, and then after 2/3 p.m., scattered storms along the cold front arriving from the west. 

**This is the same front that will hopefully intercept Hurricane Matthew and keep it from hitting the East Coast. 

If you want the cool, fall weather back, most of us will have to wait until Thursday (across the west), but Friday for everyone else. North winds will take over and highs will fall into the 60s by the time we get to the end of the week.