Stormy pattern - Arctic outbreak watch

Welcome to Tuesday and hopefully it hasn't been too tough getting back into the swing of things.

This has turned out to be the warmest November on record for a lot of places. So many 70 degree days, even some record highs this month. It's been incredible to see such warmth at a time of year when we normally begin to see snow.

Couple of features to watch now:

Storm developing at the end of the week:
Forecast models have a very healthy storm dropping into the desert Southwest at the end of this week. It looks like this could be a wet storm across the south, but if the track of the storm changes at all, Kansas could get in on some of the moisture. One computer models keeps almost all of the moisture south of us, while another one (which has been more consistent), continues to bring some very light precipitation into southern Kansas. If the moisture does make it to Kansas, some of it could be very light snow. This doesn't really look like a storm we have to worry too much about.

Sunday will be another day to watch as the storm system finally kicks out of the southern Plains. Once again, if the track changes very much, it will impact the forecast.

ARCTIC OUTBREAK NEXT WEEK:
I think we can safely issue an Arctic outbreak watch for next week. The first big batch of MUCH colder air is headed down this way. This is the part of the pattern we expect will repeat many times this winter and why we went with cold forecast for the upcoming winter season. Highs will be dropping to the 20s and wind chills much lower. I'm also seeing signs of a potential snow event in the middle of next week too, but let's not get overly excited about that yet. There's a lot that can change between now and then. But now is the time to get ready for some major cold coming next week.

Wind and bigger temperature changes coming

Anybody still full from their Thanksgiving feast yesterday? Seems like everywhere you look these days, there's more food.

Heading into our last weekend of November and there's more wind coming our way. Oh boy! We have a very active weather pattern setting up for at least the next week (and likely beyond), but when are we going to get moisture. Kansas hasn't been in the right spot for about the last 2 months, and we keep getting missed by these passing storms.

Sunday storm -
A powerful low pressure system will slide through the Plains on Sunday. It will be VERY windy, but the rain chances are SLIM. Even though moisture starts to roll in from the Gulf of Mexico, other factors are not coming together. The cold front is not arriving when it needs to, and therefore, the best chances for rain will go well to our east. I don't like delivering the bad news, but it is what it is.

Pattern change next week -
A HUGE buckle in the jet stream is coming next week. It will setup right over the central and northern Plains, resulting in much colder air spilling south. This is the kind of weather pattern I think we will see quite often in the coming winter months. It's not exactly a wet or snowy pattern, but it's one that can deliver some very cold blasts.

Early look at December - 
All signs point toward some much colder weather coming in December. We take several different computer models and blend them together to get an idea of what the longer range setup could be. They continue to show colder air covering much of the central and northern US. I'm still not 100% confident on when our first snow will get here. So many storms recently have been going around us, but I'll let you know when I start to see something coming together.

Possible weekend storm - new satellite in space

Possible weekend storm:

As I talked about in yesterdays blog, the weather pattern is getting very active. Several storms are coming this way, but not all of them will be rain or snow makers. It's been so dry in western Kansas that some of you don't care what form the moisture comes in, just as long as it shows up sooner rather than later. Forecast models agree there will be a storm in the Plains by Sunday, but they don't agree on the track, which dictates precipitation type and amounts. So this is something we have to look at through the Thanksgiving holiday. If you are driving Friday or Saturday, the weather should be very nice in Kansas and surrounding areas. 

GFS - American model

European model

The world of weather is about to see some big advances coming in 2017 and beyond. New, state of the art technology will be orbiting 22,300 miles above Earth in what will be known as GOES-16. This new satellite has so many key features that will help in severe weather forecasting and detection, It's also going to have some very helpful features when dealing with flooding.

Saturday launch from Kennedy Space Center carrying the new satellite

Watch the video to learn more!

Other features include:

• scan the skies 5 times faster
• high resolution imagery as often as every 30 seconds
• improved rainfall estimates
• lightning mapper (to observe frequency of lightning bolts)

It will take several months for the instruments to be of any great use to meteorologists, but the possible advances are going to be significant in the years to come.

Holiday travel - stormy & cold soon

It's a very busy week for most of us as we travel around getting ready for Thanksgiving. If you are traveling by car (which is probably most of you planning travel anyway), the weather should be in good shape to be on the roads. Last year at this time, we were gearing up for an ice storm in the Plains.

November is on track to be one of the warmest ever recorded. Sound familiar? October was one of the warmest too, so this fall has been quite weird.

• Our average temperature (including Monday) is 55.4°F - 1st place is 1999 with an average temperature of 53.3°F

A very active weather pattern is unfolding now, but moisture and storm track will be keys to the forecast in the coming day and weeks.

Storm #1 - Tuesday

This is basically a dud. The storm is going to move right over Kansas, so the track doesn't work in our favor and the moisture is somewhat limited. Amounts will likely be under .25" for most areas. Some snow could fall from northeast Colorado to Nebraska, but with limited cold air, I'm not worried about slick roads around here. 

Travel Weather Wednesday - looks great! We expect sunshine and dry conditions on roads around here.

Thanksgiving Day Storm - also expected to be a dud. This system will help generate wind and eventually drag in some cooler weather, but it's VERY unlikely to produce moisture. 

Sunday (Nov. 27) - Another fast moving system is coming from the west with a cold front. We will need to watch this system as it has been showing signs of digging south and pulling in some moisture - so parts of central and eastern Kansas could be looking at some rain (unlikely to be snow)

Much colder air soon - Forecast models are latching on this idea that a big change in temperature is LIKELY around December 1st. One model is showing widespread cold with highs in the 30s. We are also looking at the chance most of Kansas could get some snow. We still don't know much about this storm yet because it hasn't formed. But you should be ready for a cold and potentially stormy start to December.

Calmer weekend; next storm Tuesday

The weekend is here! Hope you were prepared for the huge temperature change. It feels very weird to fall back BELOW normal for a change. It's our first day this month with an afternoon high temperature that doesn't get above normal.

Weekend: A hard freeze is expected statewide for Saturday morning as we drop into the teens and 20s. Thank goodness the wind will go down. Skies will be sunny.

Sunday: Should be a little milder at the end of the weekend. Skies will remain sunny and although there may be a bit of a breeze, it shouldn't be anything like the last few days.

Next Storm: Forecast models agree that the next system will arrive on Tuesday. It comes from the southwest, which can mean trouble this time of the year. But this system is running into enough warm air that we aren't expecting any wintry precipitation. It would be nice if we could get a good soaking, but I just don't think the storm will be around for very long. So amounts (for the most part) will likely come in under .25"

Thanksgiving Day!!
Right now... it looks a little breezy. South winds will help to push temperatures up close to 60 degrees, but I think we will be dry throughout the area.

Big change arrives ... first winter storm

The cold front is here and big changes are looming for much of the central and northern Plains. Travel is going to be difficult for areas north of Kansas and the cold air will probably be a shock to our bodies.

At 7 a.m. this morning, the cold front is already changing temperatures in western Kansas. The front is moving a little faster than what we were looking at yesterday, so we won't have record highs today in the west. We could still get close in central and eastern Kansas.

The first snowfall of the season will stretch from Colorado to Minnesota, and it could be nearly a foot deep in the Dakotas. Blizzard warnings have been posted.

Weekend Outlook:
Looks chilly, but should be dry. Winds will back down for Saturday, then turn to the south for Sunday.

Every day this month has been above normal (so far) and our average high temperature is over 71 degrees. This November is on track to rank in the top 10 warmest on record, but with chillier weather slated for the next few weeks, we will see if that ranking holds up.

Two storms before Thanksgiving

Just a little over a week out from Thanksgiving and it's already a busy time of year. Weather is always important, but it becomes even more critical when you have travel plans and you're trying to figure out what to do, when to leave, etc. Some of you will remember the icy weather Kansas had last year around Thanksgiving. I remember sitting around the Thanksgiving table and having the power go out right AFTER the turkey came out of the oven. Great timing!

We have two storms to watch between now and the holiday.

Storm #1 - This is the system coming out of the west for the end of the week. It's going to be a major temperature changer, taking us from summer weather to winter in less than 24 hours. There's also going to be some snow nearby. Recent trends in the forecast models have been dropping the system farther south, but I don't expect it will be much more than a trace for far northwest Kansas (around Goodland and Colby). Farther north, winter storm and blizzard watches are already posted. If you have travel plans tomorrow or Friday that take you north of Kansas... watch out.

Tuesday storm - Nov. 22

Storm #2 - There's still some uncertainty in when this storm will develop and where it will go, but most (if not all) of the cold air will be locked up north. So if we do end up with a Thanksgiving week storm, I expect it will be a wet storm and not white. It will be chilly (highs in the 50s), but warm enough that there won't be any shoveling to do as it rolls on through. It should be a fairly fast moving system, so rain chances for Tuesday, but then beginning to dry out by Wednesday. There's a possibility we could see some 1/2" amounts, but it's still pretty early to say exactly how much different areas of the state will get.

Record watch to winter... even some snow possible

The warm weather has been endless this fall season and here we go AGAIN! Record watch is on for Tuesday and Wednesday and highs will be 25 degree warmer than average. It's amazing. But I will caution you that Mother Nature has a way of evening things out. Our winter forecast that we put out a week ago calls for a colder winter and I still believe we are getting close to seeing the cold air cut loose.

A large high pressure system is allowing for warm air to spread north across Kansas and surrounding areas. It's not unheard of, but it's incredible for the middle of November. Normal highs are between 55-60 degrees. Here are the numbers to beat for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wind Alert! - A very strong storm is coming in for the second half of the week. This will be one of the strongest systems we've seen in the Plains for quite awhile (maybe nearly 2 months)! There is a chance the first snowflakes of the season could fly in western Kansas Thursday night. Beneficial, widespread moisture isn't likely, but this will definitely be a weather changing storm system. The storm would need to track MUCH farther south (down through Texas) in order to get measurable snow in Kansas, but the model trends for the last 4-5 days have not shown that. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph, blowing dust, high fire danger, etc. for Wednesday/Thursday. This will be a BIG wind maker!

Blizzard - An all out blizzard is possible north of us into Thursday and Friday. From Colorado to Minnesota, a swath of white-out conditions look to be in the making as the storm could drop up to more than a foot of snow in Minnesota. 

Bitter Wind Chills - expected Saturday morning. Many areas will be down in the teens and 20s. 

So be ready for some wild swings in temperatures this week. I know we need moisture (some want rain, others snow), but the pattern doesn't look to deliver much of that to Kansas at least for this week. The pattern is looking very active though between now and the end of this year. Yes... that's right... stormy weather looks to be on the horizon through much of December. Stay tuned!

A super-close full moon

Mondays full moon is another "supermoon"! This will be the closest encounter with Earth since 1948, so the moon may appear 30% larger than the smallest full moons.

The moon has an elliptical orbit around the Earth. The full moon on Monday will occur at perigee (where the moon is closest to the Earth in it's orbit). This moon will be .6% closer than the supermoon in October and .8% closer than the one we will have in December. To the naked eye, they probably won't look much different.

The Earth's atmosphere creates a color illusion when it comes up over the horizon. It often gives it that red or orange color, but that's just the atmosphere refracting light. When the moon is directly overhead, there is less atmosphere for it to shine through, so the color looks different than it does when it rises and sets. This concept is the same reason why sunsets and sunrises look extra red - just a trick being played on our eyes.

Where is winter & potential storm next week

We had a call yesterday in the storm center from someone who was seriously upset because colder weather had not made it to Kansas yet. As I mentioned Monday night on the air and here on the blog, colder weather is coming and it looks like the pattern is on the verge of getting more active. The real problem is the computer models beyond about 6 or 7 days are really struggling to get an understanding of what's happening. We get updates from some of the computer models 4 times a day, and sometimes they are vastly different from one to another.

No storms can punch through this block over the Rockies

There's no chance for any kind of moisture around here through at least the middle of next week. Part of what's going on is there is essentially a "log jam" right over the central and southern Plains. It meteorology, we call it a Rex Block. High pressure over a low pressure and anything coming in from the west coast just can't get through. These kinds of setups can last awhile (sometimes a week or more). So we are waiting for the block to get out of our area so storms can approach from the west. We need moisture in western Kansas, and you don't get it with the kind of setup we've had this week.

We are about to see more ups and downs in temperatures.

Thursday - mild (around 70)
Friday - much cooler (highs mainly in the 50s)
Saturday A.M. - another potential hard freeze over western, central, and northern Kansas.
Early next week - Another warm up is coming!! Highs will get back into the 70s with sunshine and no sign of any rain.

Next chance for a storm:
We've been seeing this on the longer range models for awhile now, but confidence in what happens is low this far out. This could be a significant winter storm for the northern Plains. If some of the data is correct, a blizzard is possible much farther north (a long way from Kansas). Right now for Kansas, I'd be expecting the coldest air of the fall season to arrive at the end of next week AND tremendous wind. We will learn so much more about this storm early next week once it finally forms. In the meantime, enjoy the great fall weather because colder air is on the maps and it will get here before long (ready or not)

Much of the United States is snow-free now. That's not necessarily unusual considering how much of the country has been VERY warm. The snow cover across Canada is expanding and will likely grow quite a bit the week of Thanksgiving.

Winter Forecast 2016-17

Thanks for coming by the blog and spending some time reading my thoughts on what I think will happen this winter. Let me just say here at the start that seasonal forecasts are difficult. Some meteorologists shy away from making them because they require a lot of time and effort. There's a TON of data to look at and so many things to consider. I truly enjoy coming up with a winter forecast, because after all, it's the most common asked question from August 1st through about December 31st.

I'll share my forecast and thoughts, and if you are still interested in how I came to these conclusions, feel free to keep on reading.

FORECAST:
I expect this will be a typical Kansas winter with several (could be as many as 4-6) big surges of cold air riding down the east side of the Rockies. We often refer to these as Arctic outbreaks. I'm also expecting that we will end up with near normal snowfall for much of the state. That would be roughly 10-15 inches of snow across central and eastern Kansas, and slightly higher amounts the farther west you go (could be 20-30 inches). For those who hate winter altogether, we will have some milder weather mixed in from time to time, but they may be brief.

• Normal snowfall for Wichita is about 15 inches. It's closer to 40 inches around Goodland and Colby. So there is quite a range from one part of the state to the next.

One thing most of us can agree on is that we didn't really have a winter last year. One of the biggest snow events of the year came Easter morning, but that melted in a hurry. Dodge City only had about 10 inches of snow last winter. You might remember all of the talk about a STRONG El Nino. It was almost the strongest one on record, but came up a little short. There was tremendous moisture across the south. So many states in the south had record flooding, including Texas, Louisiana, even southern Oklahoma had a lot of rain in the winter. Our temperatures in Kansas were very mild.

So here's what's going on for this winter:

El Nino/La Nina:

El Nino died back in the early summer months and we've been watching a very slow, La Nina coming on in the Pacific. I'm not going to go into a ton of detail about La Nina other than to show a map and simply state that it's likely to be weak at best this winter. And the forecasts show it might even fade away into spring of 2017. We can't base our forecast solely on this factor, which is what too many long range forecasts are doing. There isn't much correlation between La Nina and how much snow we tend to get.

Arctic Oscillation:

One of the indicators tipping the scale toward the colder in my winter forecast is that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been negative for quite some time and is likely to stay negative for much of the winter season. Why is this important? While it's not a guarantee, when the AO goes negative, the jet stream circulating counterclockwise near the Arctic weakens and allows much colder air to drop farther south across the US. Last year, we had a positive AO much of the winter (see image below)

AO for the next few weeks....looking negative for the end of the month

North Atlantic Oscillation:

This particular index is focused more over Iceland and the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Again, it gives us an indication of jet stream patterns and where highs and lows are focused. It is more of an indicator of patterns impacting the eastern US, but atlas, if we can understand patterns east of us, we can sometimes unlock clues for Kansas weather too. It's forecast to be negative most of the winter as well, which indicates cold air building up over Canada and a much better chance it can dive south. 

Build up of cold air/snow in Siberia:
There is recent evidence to suggest that a above normal snowfall and much colder air in Siberia (in early fall) can give some confidence as to what happens across North America. If you take a look at the map, there is tremendous cold air (well below normal) and snow, which helps boost the confidence in the cold outbreaks that we will see this winter around here.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO):

This tells us what the water temperatures are like in the North Pacific and along the west coast of the United States. It has some similarities to El Nino/La Nina, but what is different is how long it lasts. El Nino might last months, but the different phases of the PDO can last years. The latest PDO has been slightly warm, which indicate the possibility of a milder winter.

Please feel free to ask questions. There is so much more than what I posted here, but as we go through the next few weeks, I'll be adding additional thoughts and maps of course. 

Nearly 60 days without rain... here comes the storm

So many rounds of generous rainfall earlier this year across western Kansas, but the faucet has been turned off for the last couple months. It's already set a record for lack of moisture from September 6 through today's date. And we will go a little longer before the weekend storm arrives.

It's remarkably quiet around much of the country. Very few watches/warnings/or advisories. And this is the time of year when storm systems get stronger and the weather should be getting more exciting. But lately, it's been pretty uneventful (with the exception of all the record highs happening around the country)

The weekend storm that will impact Kansas is going to hang out over New Mexico producing rains through at least Friday. It could be a drenching rain as forecast models paint some 2-3 inch amounts around the state. 

Kansas will get some rain this weekend. It may not be very much, even though the Gulf of Mexico moisture will be flowing right up into our area. As the storm system approaches Kansas, it should be weakening. Rainfall around here over the weekend will mostly be under .25", but we may see some pockets of .50" across the west.

Weekend forecast rainfall amounts

Looking down the road, I continue to see temperatures gradually getting colder. The models have been doing a terrible job in the extended period, but I'm expecting our temperatures to be near normal for awhile, and then go below normal as we get closer to Thanksgiving. 

Don't forget our winter forecast is coming out Monday night at 10 p.m. I'm also planning a Facebook Live after the story airs so you can ask questions. 

Rain chances return in a couple different rounds

Chances for rain have been few and far between lately, and after seeing how dry western Kansas has been the last few months, it can't get here soon enough. In fact, look at this map showing rainfall totals from October. Some places have only had a trace. That's not going to help the winter wheat crop at all.

The weather pattern is turning active, and that means we should see more than just temperatures changing in the coming days. A VERY slow moving front over the state today will bring the chance for spotty rains to central and eastern Kansas. I think some areas along and east of the Flint Hills might see over .50", but most of us will barely get enough rain to settle the dust. 

Beautiful Weather Alert!! - Thursday and Friday look really nice. It should feel more like autumn ... finally.

Weekend Rain Chances - 

Heading into the weekend,, another storm (albeit weak) is going to approach from the 4 Corners area. It's a slow moving system that won't be overly impressive, BUT... it does bring the chance for rain back to western Kansas. Moisture will be flowing up from the Gulf of Mexico, so there's a good chance it will feel like early spring. The system will wobble a little farther east by Sunday, so the chances will spread a little farther east by then too.

Saturday

Sunday

Here's a look at one forecast model and what it shows for potential rainfall between now and Monday morning. Not much... but some will be happy with just about any moisture at this point.