2016 Weather Review - How will 2017 start?

We've come to the end of 2016! I wanted to take a quick look back at some of the highlights from this year weather-wise. What a busy year and big records smashed.

February:
7th warmest - Wichita

March:
7th warmest - Wichita

April:
Wettest on record - Dodge City
6th wettest - Wichita
7th wettest - Goodland

May:
EF2 tornado - May 8th - Ellis county
EF3 tornadoes - May 24th - Dodge City
EF4 tornado - May 25th - Chapman (northern Dickinson county)

Harrison Sincavage - near Dodge City

near Minneola - May 24 - courtesy Trevor Sherman

July:
EF3 tornado - July 7th - Eureka
80 mph winds measured - July 14th - Wichita
2nd wettest - Wichita

Anna Auld - near Ellsworth

courtesy Deb - near Bunker Hill

August:
4th wettest - Wichita

September:
Major flooding with over 12" of rain in spots across south central Kansas
2nd wettest - Wichita

Leftover moisture from Hurricane Newton

October:
Latest 100° ever recorded in Kansas - October 17th - Dodge City
4th warmest - Dodge City
5th warmest - Wichita and Goodland

November:
Latest fall freeze - Salina
2nd warmest - Wichita
3rd warmest - Dodge City
4th warmest - Goodland

December:
Record lows (-10 to -25 below) - December 18th
First recorded severe weather in Kansas on Christmas Day - including 4 tornadoes

It's always amazing to look back at what we've been through during the year. Thank you for allowing us into your home each night to deliver the weather story.

And finally... looking at the start of 2017, it's going to be cold! Highs will be falling to the teens and 20s for many days next week. I don't see much in the way of snow, but the cold weather will for sure be taking over. Happy New Year!!

Arctic Air WATCH issued

Welcome to our last Wednesday of 2016! We managed to get the stormy weather out of the way over Christmas weekend, so now we get to enjoy some nice weather while many of you are off from work and school.

In the blog tomorrow, I'm going to be showcasing some of the weather highlights from this year as we get ready to ring in 2017. In the meantime, we need to get you ready for another big blast of cold, Arctic air that is ready to move south early next week. It may not be as cold as it was a few weeks ago when we had the record lows, but it's still going to be pretty cold.

Most of the country has had a colder December (compared to average), which is quite the change from the record warmth we were getting in October and November. It's all finally flipped around.

The beginning of the new year will be quite cold. One of the forecast products that we can look at to help identify some of the longer patterns continues to show bitter cold for the beginning of 2017. Just look at how much of the country will be seeing below average temperatures. The freezing line drops well south into Texas by the middle of next week.

It's not clear if we will be getting snow just yet, but we are seeing signs of at least some flurries possible in the middle of next week. I don't see any big winter storms coming through the Plains anytime soon, but what we lack in precipitation will be made up for in cold air.

December is one of our snowiest months (on average) here in Kansas. This month is winding down with no more snow forecast between now and the start of the new year. Average snow amounts are anywhere from 4 to about 6 inches around the state and right now, most places have only had a couple inches.

Storms on Christmas - look ahead to January

This is my last blog update before the holiday, so I want to wish everyone a Merry Christmas. And if you haven't heard, we are not getting a white Christmas this year. Disappointing for some, but anyone on the roads Sunday will appreciate the news.

We still have a powerful storm that will be passing through the Plains this weekend. I'm still so baffled by how much the setup looks like something we'd see in April or May. And if it were springtime in the Plains, we'd have ourselves a big severe weather episode.

What I think will happen with the storms on Sunday is that they will develop around mid-late morning in western Kansas and then move very quickly to the east. The biggest threat will be damaging wind gusts that might be close to 60 or 65 mph. There may be some small hail too, but in the last 36 hours, I'm seeing more and more signs of this being a wind event. You don't expect your holiday decorations to be torn down by severe thunderstorms in December. Amazing. The severe threat should be out of our area by 4/5 p.m. Sunday evening. As for rainfall amounts, looks like less than .25" for western Kansas, but central and eastern Kansas might be closer to .50" (if you get more... Merry Christmas)

So what can we expect heading into New Years and the month of January?

Much of next week (Dec. 26-30) should be quiet. There is one system that will be close to Kansas on Wednesday, but it's been looking the moisture will basically miss us to the east. Some Arctic air may sneak in here around New Years Eve/Day. I don't expect this will last very long at all before temperatures rebound. And it's probably not going to be quite as cold as the weather we had just a week ago.

We do know that Arctic air will be coming back in a big way. But how long will it take to show up? After looking at several pieces of data, I think mid to late January could be quite cold. Now that's not to say we won't have some chilly days between now and then. The cold I'm referring to would be highs in the teens/20s with single digit lows.

Arctic Osciallation - Now and looking ahead!

One thing to consider is the Arctic Oscillation right now is positive, but goes back negative after the first of the year. A negative AO increases the chances of bitter cold to move south into the US.

The other piece of data from one of our long range models has the bitter cold taking over much of the country later in January too.

Around January 9/10/11

Around January 21/22/23/24

Will we have snow? It's a much more difficult question to answer this far out. but I don't see us getting much snow at the beginning of the month. Better chances for stormy weather will return during the 2nd half of January too.

Rain/snow/thunderstorms now - Christmas

Thanks for taking some time from your busy schedule to catch up on some weather news here on the blog. There's a lot to look at heading into the holiday weekend. 

How about the incredible turn in temperatures throughout the week. Some of you had low temperatures last weekend down to -20 to -25 and now this weekend we are close to 60 degrees. Wichita had -10 Sunday morning and will be close to 60 on Christmas. Almost a 70 degree flip. And we know a big change in temperature like that can happen in just hours... it doesn't always take a week.

We have two storms coming through the area between now and Christmas afternoon. If you look at the satellite picture from the Pacific, you can see one system in southern California and the second storm hitting the Pacific Northwest. It's the second system that's going to stir up some strong storms AND produce a blizzard in the northern US. 

System #1:

This will bring some light rain and snow to Kansas today (Thursday) and into early Friday. This is not going to be a big storm and with milder temperatures in the Plains, we don't have to worry about icy roads. Any snowfall will be little more than a dusting, with most of it melting as it falls. 

2:30 p.m. Thursday

8:30 p.m. Thursday

9:30 a.m. Friday

System #2:

In recorded history, there haven't been any severe thunderstorms in Kansas (dates back to the 1950s). While we don't expect a severe weather outbreak, some strong to marginally severe storms are possible Christmas afternoon. The main threat will be wind gusts of 60 mph and the storms will move VERY quickly (close to 50-60 mph) Any possible wintry weather will be up in the Dakotas (along I-90) or north.

Coming up in tomorrows blog, we will take a look into January and I'll share some thoughts about when I think the bitter cold might be coming back our way. 

Thunderstorms for Christmas? Check it out!

Just 5 days until Christmas and we are now 99% certain there will not be a white Christmas this year. You may not necessarily feel it yet, but there is so much warm air flooding up into the Plains for the holiday weekend. It's kinda hard to believe after having so much cold weather recently and record low temperatures, but the pattern is changing very quickly.

Last night at 10 p.m. we talked about two possible storm track for the Christmas storm. Track #1 looks like it's going to be the winner. And not only do we have rain in the forecast but THUNDERSTORMS too. Yes... this is incredible for late December. Look at the dew points (measure of moisture in the air) for Christmas Day. Normally, we don't see 50+ dew points in Kansas until closer to spring. But with that kind of humidity pumping north and a powerful storm coming from the west, we maybe seeing lightning and hearing some thunder. Watch out Santa.

As for how much rain we might get. one forecast model is giving some parts of the area .50" or more. This could be a good soaking rain unless the track of the storm ends up too far north or east. In that case, the heavier rainfall might miss us to the east. 

So there is a lot to look at and consider heading into Christmas weekend. But if you have plans to travel from Kansas, the weather shouldn't be too hard on you. As for a white Christmas, we will just have to try again next year. 

Slowly warming - potential Christmas storm

What a weekend of cold, cold weather. Record setting low temperatures don't seem to happen as often, but we sure had a number of them this weekend. In fact, it was some of the coldest air we've had in many years.

Temperatures will be going up this week and we will see 40s and 50s by midweek. It will turn a little windy on Wednesday with another cold front, but the major Arctic air is going to head east. The pattern is changing and we will feel it in just a couple of days.

Potential Christmas Storm:
We talked about this on Friday here on the blog. Confidence is getting better and better that there will be a storm, but timing, track, and potential impacts are still very much a wildcard. I've been watching the models throughout the weekend and I've seen everything from a storm on Christmas Eve to Christmas night. And will the precipitation fall as rain or will there be a blizzard over the holiday?

This storm won't even form until Thursday night or early Friday. Please don't believe everything you see on Facebook or Twitter because there will be some wild predictions from unknown sources. Nobody (not even Storm Team 12) knows exactly what will happen. Our computer models can only give us ideas this far in advance. It does look like there could be a lot of wind with this system, so wherever the snow ends up, it could be a blizzard.

Storm Track Potential 1:
If this track ends up being reality, most of what we will get in Kansas will be rain! This is the track I think will be more likely, but again, we don't know for certain yet. One of the more reliable computer models has been hinting at this track now for two days.

Storm Track Potential 2:
If the storm goes farther south, we get snow. There will be colder air to work with and much of the state will have snow for Christmas Day. If you want snow... you have to hope the storm goes farther south.

Stick with us throughout the week. We will be talking about it through the week as it will have impacts on holiday travel plans.

Chances of snow on Christmas?

It's Friday and we are just over one week from Christmas. Some of you have been asking me about the possibility of a white Christmas.

First, we define a white Christmas by having 1" of snow on the ground Christmas morning, or it could fall that day. In most years, there is only a 10-20% change of it actually happening. So the odds are stacked against us. Last year, we had temperatures in the 50s. 

But look at this. Since 2000, we have been beating the odds. We've had 5 years with snow on Christmas, with the last one happening in 2013. There was a blizzard just before the holiday in 2007. 

It is staring to look like we will have a Christmas storm this year too. Now, we are still more than a week away and there will be changes to the forecast; I can promise you that. The changes could include everything from storm track, to temperatures, precipitation amounts and type. But computer models are coming into agreement that we will have a storm in the Plains on Christmas Day. (click on any image to make it larger)

European model - usually more reliable several days out

GFS (American model)

If I had to make a forecast for the 25th now, I'd say it looks like a rain turning to snow setup. How much and where is only a guess this far out. The storm is basically an idea right now... not reality. If the storm track is farther south, it's more likely we'd get snow. But the one computer model that seems to handle the extended forecast the best is hinting at a track across Oklahoma. In my mind, this gives us a rain changing to snow setup. 

Kids will be excited, even some adults too. If you plan to travel, you probably hope we don't have a storm at all. Bottom line is that we do have something to watch carefully as we get closer to Santa's arrival in just 9 days! Whew... where does the time go.

Update on weekend storm - travel impacts

Thursday is here and just a few days before the bitter cold snap AND the next chance for snow. This will be a cross country storm covering many areas in snow from the west all the way to the east coast. Forecast models continue to show the heaviest snow will miss us to the north across the Dakotas and northern Nebraska. Take a look at the watches/warnings. We will likely see some advisories issued for Kansas going into the weekend.

Confidence level on this weekend storm is pretty high. It hasn't formed yet, but computer models have had some agreement now for a few days that it will move through quickly and moisture is somewhat limited. 

Almost all of Kansas will get snow. The amounts will be light, with most areas getting less than 2 inches. But because there will be so much wind, it's going to be extremely difficult to measure anything. 

If you have travel plans Saturday, be prepared for lower visibility because of the blowing snow. And it's not just in Kansas. But rough weather will stretch all the way up to Chicago too. If you can wait just an extra day, Sunday will be much better with sunshine and a lot less wind.

And what's going on for Christmas? We will take a deeper look into the possibility of having snow for Christmas on the blog tomorrow (Friday).

Getting colder - weekend snow chance - and look at next week

Thanks for spending a few minutes reading the blog. Officially, we are one week out from winter but we've already had some pretty chilly days. It's going to get even colder before the weather pattern changes.

The weather looks fairly quiet the next few days. We had thought freezing drizzle might develop early Friday morning, but now that looks like it's going to be well to the east (if it develops at all). And it's not an ice accumulation situation. Even if some freezing drizzle develops in northeast Kansas, it shouldn't last very long.

On to the weekend cold blast AND snow! This is some of the coldest air in a couple of winter seasons. Nearly 85% of the US will see sub-freezing temperatures by Sunday morning, with about 15-20% seeing sub-zero temperatures. And the wind chills will be a concern. Just look at 12 p.m. Saturday... wind chills will be well below zero during the day.

When it comes to snow Saturday, here is what we know. 

1. Could start late Saturday morning, but more likely in the afternoon/evening
2. Fast moving storm
3. Not much moisture
4. Very cold air
5. Quite windy

What all of this tells me is that amounts will be limited, likely less than 2 inches statewide. While the computer models still have some differences, it's NOT looking like much of a snow event for Kansas. 

The pattern will change next week. So if you need a break from the cold, the series of Arctic surges will come to an end for now. It still looks rather chilly, but not the bitter cold that has continued to impact most of the region. The bitter cold is going to split and move east through eastern Canada. We will likely be warming back through the 40s and some 50s even possible.

When it comes to a white Christmas, although it's not completely ruled out, trends in recent days are looking a little less favorable. But every night at 10 p.m., I'll be updating you on the latest thoughts. Have a great day.

Meteor shower - more cold - and snow

It's Tuesday and another meteor shower is taking place. The annual Geminid meteor shower is peaking the next few nights and it's one of the better ones during the year. The problem... the full moon. It's not as big and bright as the one we had in November, but it will still wash out some of the smaller meteors. It's expected there could be up to 120 meteors per hour, but because of the bright moon, you might only see 12 per hour. Geminids tend to have longer streaks than other meteors, so it's well worth looking straight up the next few nights.

We've already had about as much cold weather this month of December as we did in all of last December. Our average temperature is right at 34° compared to almost 46° at the same time in 2015. And the cold keeps coming.

There's so much snow on the ground to our north that as the bitter cold continues to surge south across Canada and the northern US, the air can't warm up at all. So we should expect this bitter cold to continue for up to 2 more weeks. 

COLDEST AIR YET...is still to come. Friday evening, a STRONG cold front will surge across the central Plains and temperatures will take a nose dive. In fact, afternoon temperatures will fall to the teens Saturday, and that's colder than any day we had in ALL of last winter. We are still expecting snow this weekend too. I won't discuss possible totals until tomorrow, but it still doesn't look like it will be very much. 

Thanks for spending some time here on the blog.

Arctic air reloading - snow this week?

Hope everyone had a nice weekend and a chance to thaw out some. More cold weather is coming and it will be awhile before we see this relentless, Arctic air ease up. As I mentioned last week, we could see these Arctic blasts continue right up to Christmas and maybe beyond. So many locations are still waiting on their first 1 inch of snow and that still may be a week away yet.

Just take a look at the 7 a.m. temperatures from Kansas all the way up into central Canada. Those dark shades of purple indicate temperatures WELL below zero. And as expected, almost all areas between Kansas and Canada have snow on the ground, so these air masses won't be able to modify much as they move south. Just look at the one week comparison of snow cover. It's rapidly expanding as the storm track continues to be VERY active.

Snow cover - Monday

This Week:
Today - This will be one of the warmest days of the week. Highs will mostly be in the 40s and 50s ahead of the next front.

Tuesday - Cold front arrives before sunrise and temperatures will mostly fall into the 30s.

Wednesday - One of the colder days with highs in the 20s to near 30. A few flurries may show up, but very unlikely to cause any accumulations.

Thursday - Still cold and dry. Winds will start turning back to the south, but highs will only reach the upper 20s to near 30.

Friday - Windy!! Clouds start rolling in and the bitter cold may ease (highs in the 40s to near 50)

Saturday - Another STRONG cold front will come through with a chance for light snow and flurries. Highs will drop back to the 20s once again. This will be another Arctic air mass arriving for the weekend.

Cold just keeps on coming! Where's the snow?

Friday is here and we have just over two weeks before the Christmas holiday. It's a very busy time of the year. Nearly every other Christmas song on the radio talks about snow, cold, and dreaming of a White Christmas. We are less than two weeks before the official arrival to winter.

Did you know that our earliest sunset is happening now? Yes... it actually happens before the winter solstice. That's because solar noon (when the sun is directly overhead) doesn't happen exactly at noon. There is a bit of a lag between what happens in space and what we experience here on Earth. The latest sunrise will happen in early January (it will be coming up at 7:45 a.m.)

While we did see some snow this week, it was hardly a storm. The highest snowfall report I saw was 1.7" from Goodland. Some of you were asking me why our snowfall forecast didn't match that of the National Weather Service. Basically, it just comes down to how one meteorologist vs another interprets the data. Just like one doctor might prescribe one medicine while another doctor might suggest something else.

Our average, the 1st measurable snowfall usually comes in the beginning of December. So it's right on schedule for some. The average first 1" of snow usually comes in the middle of December (at least for Wichita).

How much snow cover is there between here and Canada? It's not as much as you might expect, but I think in the next 7 days, we will likely see most areas north of Kansas covered in some amount of snow. Several systems will be tracking across the area, and there is so much Arctic air hanging around. The wind is coming across the North Pole and driving so much of the bitter cold down into the US. It will continue for at least the next few weeks. Tuesday and Wednesday... next week... look like our coldest days

Temperatures this morning

Next Wednesday

I still don't see any big storms headed for Kansas. However, we are going to be stuck in a very cold pattern for the next few weeks leading up to Christmas. So any moisture that develops nearby could be snow. We shall see. Have a great weekend.