February records - some rain/snow - calming pattern

Anybody else feel like February just zoomed by us? This was such a warm month and we've talk a lot about the records that have been set around the state. Much of the state ends up with one of the top 10 warmest February months on records. But that's probably not a huge surprise when you consider how springlike it has been around here. Look at how much of the United States had warmer than normal weather this month.

But what I'm hearing from some of you is that the lack of snow and moisture is disheartening. Just think, the last big storm we had in Kansas was January 13-15 when we had major ice accumulation across central and western Kansas. That was a very wet storm, but since then, we've been missed by many recent storms. 

I don't expect any record high temperatures today, but Wichita getting to 70 would be significant because it would be the most 70° days in February ever recorded. 

We will get a chance for some rain AND snow heading into the evening hours tonight (Tuesday). Although it won't be much (and not enough to erase fire danger in the days to come), it will be nice to see something on radar once again. Amounts will most likely be under .10" (if you get anything at all), and everything that develops will have a tendency to push east through the evening. 

Pattern Change: I try to update you on anything I see developing in the longer range patterns and what is likely to come next for Kansas. March can be a very stormy month with everything from blizzards to tornadoes. The first half of the month is looking rather benign with mainly warmer than normal temperatures (so basically, picking up where February left off) The jet stream is going to retreat north once again. This means:

A) warmer than normal weather will likely continue

B) dry conditions will likely continue too

I do think there is a pretty good chance the pattern will get active and temperatures will cool later in the month. So although March may come in like a lamb, it might not be that way for the entire month. 

Rain/snow chance - close call on severe storms

Our next storm system is going to be passing through in the next 24 hours, so get ready for more changes to take place this week. Most of us know that March can come in like a lion, but that's not going to be the case this year (at least in Kansas anyway). 

We will have a cold front coming into western Kansas Tuesday morning, which will be running into higher humidity and creating more clouds. As the front continues pushing east, the chance for scattered rain showers will increase into Tuesday evening. There could be just enough cold air at the very end of the storm to change some of the rain showers to snow, but accumulations are not likely. 

This will be a close call for severe storms in Kansas. It's not too early to start thinking about that kind of thing. After all, this has been a very active start to the storm season across the south and southeastern US. And we are seeing severe weather farther north in places that should still be getting winter weather this time of year. 

Coming up tomorrow, we will take another look at the longer range pattern setting up for our area. It's been nearly 50 days since some areas have had any moisture at all. 

Winter fights back - how about early March?

The statistics on this month of February are just incredible to say the least. We have less than a week to go and still only 4 days with below average high temperatures. But what stands out to me are these stats:

The kind of thing that is going to happen in Nebraska is what many of you probably worry about happening here in Kansas. A foot of snow with strong north winds = blizzard. It's going to be a really rough time for travel for areas just north of us, but we miss the accumulating snow and just get the colder temperatures.

What's next?
We have a very weak system that will come through on Sunday, and it might produce some rain showers for south central and southeast Kansas. This isn't a very strong storm and it's moving pretty fast, but we may have some moisture around at the every end of the weekend. This is something we will be updating you on later today.

Early March - 
Alright, so after this incredibly warm month of February, what are we looking at heading into March? I touched on this late last week, but I don't see any major storms coming our way for now. I don't see anymore long stretches of warm weather like we've had, but instead, more big temperature swings. One of the things I'm looking at (into our first full week of March) is a split jet stream. What does that mean?

Bottom line is that the much colder air will likely be held north of Kansas. So even if we do have a storm system coming through, just looking at the jet stream gives me confidence that our chances of snow are somewhat diminished because of the main jet stream being north of us. Could this change into mid March? Absolutely. But for now, I don't think the first half of March is going to be all that rough on us here in the Plains.

Changes coming to Kansas - close call on snow

This will probably come as no surprise after all of the warm weather we've had this month, but look at some of these stats:

16 days this month with highs above normal

5 days (counting today) with record highs reported in Kansas

Wichita - tied for 4th warmest

Dodge City - 4th warmest

Goodland - 3rd warmest

Wichita - 6 days in a row with highs above 60° (record in Feb. is 9)

California has been blasted with so many wet and powerful storms. Take a look at the radar estimates and you can see that parts of San Francisco and northern California have had over 5/6 inches of rain. This is important because that western storm is headed for Kansas by Thursday. Once it gets here, our weather will be changing and colder weather is headed back.

We will be on record watch the next few days. At least for today, here are the numbers to watch. Most records will be in western Kansas.

Warm temperatures continue Wednesday, even with a front starting to slide down into northern Kansas.

The storm coming into Kansas on Thursday will increase the wind and the clouds. There's a good chance we will have some rain showers over northern Kansas Thursday night. It could be mixed with some brief periods of snow too, but the majority of the snow will likely miss us to the north in Nebraska.

The next 10-15 days look pretty active in the Plains. Along with the stormier pattern will come more big swings in temperatures. March could be coming in like a small lion.

Rainfall amounts - changes on the horizon

Good Monday morning and to go along with the weird February temperatures, how about the thunderstorms? We didn't have any severe weather here last night, but stronger storms were reported just south of us in Oklahoma City and into Texas.

Rainfall Amounts - through 6 a.m. Monday:
Winfield: 1.65"
Wichita (Eisenhower Airport): 0.80"
Emporia: 0.68"
Jabara Airport: 0.64"
Newton: 0.57"
Hutch: 0.13"
Salina: 0.02"

This latest storm system is out of here and for the next two days, our focus will be on the potential for record highs.

Two storms late week:

The first will arrive on Thursday, producing near blizzard conditions in Nebraska and parts of the Dakotas. There could be a 30 degree spread in temperatures around Kansas Thursday afternoon, with a chance for rain/snow mix over northern Kansas Thursday evening. It doesn't look like a major storm for Kansas, but could be a travel mess just north of us.

Storm #2:

This system will be nearby on Sunday. Again, not likely to be a major storm, but it does bring another chance for some light rain AND much chillier weather to start next week.

Bottom line is that we are seeing a return to near normal weather after what has been an amazing stretch of spring weather in the Plains. 

Next storm for Kansas & cold air back on the map

Finally Friday and this weird, warm February rolls on into the weekend with no sign of an end.... yet! We had at least 6 record highs set yesterday because we are 25-30° above average. I don't want to be pessimistic about this sunny, calm weather, but with temperatures staying so warm for so long, trees are budding and before we know it, our plants and crops will break dormancy. This is WAY too early for that.

Next Storm:
This will be pushing closer to Kansas by Sunday. Clouds will likely take over, but even if we don't get much sunshine, I still think we will top 60 in the afternoon. Again, this is so bizarre for February.

Rainfall amounts won't add up to very much. I would expect less than .25" - this is not a very organized storm and the moisture is limited. Hearing thunder in February might be more impressive than the rain.

Cold air on the maps:
There should be some much chillier air coming around the end of the month. Mother Nature sometimes has a way of leveling things out, so after a very warm spell this month, I do look for temperatures to trend back to normal or below here soon.

If you take a look at one of the computer models out to February 25/26, you can see the gates are opening up to Canada, which will likely mean a return to winter temperatures. Some of the computer data shows some snow too, but we will have to wait and see on that one. This just hasn't been the winter for snow around here. There will likely be some snow off to the north of Kansas late next week (even blizzard conditions possible in Nebraska and the Dakotas)

Interesting snow statistic (courtesy Dodge City National Weather Service):
We know some big snows can come late in the winter season. In fact, 40% of major snowstorms come after the middle of February. So there's still plenty of time for snow lovers to hope for a big storm. However, as we get into March, it's less likely for it to hang around very long.

Weird February so far - active pattern returns soon

This month of February is not turning out the way I thought it would. Despite our daily study of hundreds of weather maps, there are times where the long range pattern turns out a little different than what we expect. In this case, the difference is a big change in temperatures. And it's a change for the warmer. I still think we have more cold weather coming, but as we close in on the end of February and early March, any cold snap will likely be fairly brief. So don't give up on winter yet; there are still signs of some colder weather coming.

Check this out. Look how many days already this month, have been at or above 60 degrees: 

Dodge City: 6 days 

Wichita: 5 days 

Goodland: 7 days

Salina: 3 days

Last year, Wichita had the 7th warmest February and if this warm pattern continues (which it looks like it will for awhile), we could be close to the top 5. Salina had the 6th warmest February in 2016.

Record Watch Thursday:

Here are the records to watch tomorrow:

Why so warm?

The jet stream has retreated north and the warm air gets a chance to expand and cover a wide area of real estate. Anytime we see this pattern, you can expect mild/warm weather.

Weekend storm:

There will be a storm coming into the Plains this weekend, but once again, forget about snow. The jet stream winds (roughly at 35-40,000 feet) splits right off the west coast. So cold air stays north and we continue with mild temperatures. It won't ever be cold enough with the next storm to bring a chance for snow to our area. 

There could be another storm nearby later next week too. Early indications point toward the storm staying just north of Kansas, but it's a long way off. I have looked at some data that would suggest some colder air pushing back toward Kansas around the end of the month, but if it does, it's not likely going to last very long. 

Oroville, CA about to get hit with heavy rains:

If you've been following the national news regarding the Oroville,CA situation, you know that they don't need rain right now as they try and deal with the major hole in the spillway. Heavier rains will likely move through there Wednesday night and Thursday. So hopefully they will be able to handle the extra rains without a catastrophe downstream. 

One storm nearby today/Tuesday

Thanks for spending a few minutes checking out the blog. It was a pretty nice weekend by February measures. Saturday felt every bit like spring with highs in the 60s and 70s.

We do have a storm nearby today (Monday) that should keep us cloudy for much of the day. The core of this storm is going to stay south of us, BUT Kansas will be close enough to get some light rain showers as we head into the afternoon. Our rainfall amounts won't be anything impressive, but some areas could get up to .20" before the chance ends later tonight. I don't expect any slick roads as the chance for precipitation will end long before we fall below freezing overnight.

Forecast models have southern Oklahoma and Texas getting an inch of rain or more through Tuesday night. Once the storm moves east, Kansas will be seeing more springlike weather with highs in the 60s later this week.

There will be another storm headed our way next weekend, and details on that will be coming throughout the week.

Lunar eclipse tonight - one storm to watch next week

It's finally Friday and don't forget to look for the partial lunar eclipse this evening. There is the comet too, but if I had to choose just one celestial event, I'd go with the eclipse. Best time to be out looking is from about 6 p.m. to 7:30 - it's all over with shortly after 8 p.m.

The comet will be hard to see if you don't have binoculars or a telescope. It's going to be faint and fuzzy, so you'll have to be looking in just the right spot. Did you know, the comet is moving at 51,000 miles per hour? And it's more than 7 million miles away from us. No, it's not going to crash into our planet. 

This is a PARTIAL eclipse - what the moon WILL look like later this evening

This is a TOTAL lunar eclipse - NOT what the moon will look like this evening

Enjoy the weird, warm weather today. So out of place for February, but for those who dislike winter in a big way, this will help get you through the rest of the winter season. It's one less day to deal with cold, right?

Next week, the pattern will change just a little bit. Monday and Tuesday will show a storm moving from New Mexico across the southern Plains. That giant "L" that you see on the map will stay far enough south that we don't get any precipitation from it. And most of the week will be dry.

The chances for moisture will hold off awhile longer. It could be February 21/22 at the earliest before we see chances for moisture coming back into the picture for Kansas. Most of us haven't had anything since the ice storm weekend back on January 14/15. So we are almost at a month now where there hasn't been any (or very little) precipitation in Kansas. 

Have a great weekend & enjoy the eclipse.

Partial eclipse details - Record warmth coming

Almost to the end of the week and several things are happening both in the weather and in space. I touched on the comet viewing details back on Tuesday, but that's not the only thing happening as we head into the weekend. We have a partial lunar eclipse taking place Friday evening. We might have some high clouds passing through during the event, but not the kind of clouds that will block our viewing.

When does it start? - Moon enters the Earth's shadow around 5:14 p.m. (granted, this is before sunset, so it won't be very dark out yet)
When is the best viewing? - Max eclipse will be at 6:44 p.m. with only a piece darkening down
When is the eclipse over? - The visible part will be over by 8:14 p.m.

This is the kind of eclipse when the moon passes through the Earth's shadow and causes a part of the moon to darken down. It will not turn a dark shade of red like ones we've had in the past. Only a part of the moon will darken, but it will still be visible.

DON'T FORGET: We still have a very rare TOTAL solar eclipse (moon passes between Earth and the sun) coming up on August 21st of this year! The next total lunar eclipse will happen on January 31st 2018. Mark your calendars (if you have one that goes out that far)

Alright, we are tracking a HUGE warming trend into Friday. This is pretty exciting if you like spring weather and want a warm up to start the weekend. Too much of this warmth right now will trick our trees and plants into coming out of dormancy, and we don't want that with so much winter left to go. We certainly don't want our spring, flowering trees to get nipped by a late frost.

Some colder weather is expected to be back on Sunday, but it definitely won't be Arctic air and not cold enough for snow. Other than a slight chance for some sprinkles on Sunday, there won't be much moisture around here for awhile yet.

The Northeast is about to get hit with a big snow storm. Some places will have snow coming down at 2-3 inches per hour. That can certainly pile up pretty quickly. It will likely end up being the biggest snow storm to hit the Northeast this winter... but then again, there's still plenty of winter left to go yet.

Comet visible later this week

If you are interested in what goes on in space, you might find it interesting to know there will be a comet visible later this week in the eastern sky. The official name for the comet is quite long, so it's called "45P" for short and will be visible from February 9th - 12th. You'll want to look east BEFORE sunrise, and of course the darker the sky, the better the view will be.

The comet will have a green color because the center of it will be emitting carbon, and in the near vacuum of space, it glows a greenish color.

How far away is it? - It's the 8th closest comet to Earth, but it's still 7.4 million miles from Earth. In its previous orbit, it was a little closer to Earth, but still 23 lunar distances away.

Best Viewing: You'll probably want some binoculars or a telescope (if you have one). It will look much better with some assistance to the naked eye, but even if you don't have either, you might still be able to see a small part of it with the naked eye.

More Ups & Downs:
Our weather is still in major back and forth this week. Spring weather Tuesday and then it's a reality check that is coming for the middle of the week. It will be a big drop (20-25°) but that only brings us back to near normal after being WAY above for the start of the week.

When is our next storm?
It looks like it could arrive early next week in the form of rain showers for most of the area. Updates will be coming, but it is still several days away yet.

Is winter over? Record watch this week!

Good Monday morning and our first full week of February. The forecast for this week will have some of you wondering if winter is over. There's so much warm air headed our way that there will be times this week when you might forget it's still February. 

Record Watch Tuesday:

I don't think we will have a ton of new record highs, but here's a list of the current records:

• Wichita - 70 - 2009
• Salina - 74 - 2015
• Russell - 79 - 2015
• Garden City - 79 - 2015
• Dodge City - 79 - 2015

What is going on with our weather and why are we getting so warm this week? 

We are going to be right on the edge of Arctic air this week, so although we do turn cooler by midweek, it's not going to be anything drastic. Most of the really cold air will slide by in the upper Midwest and across the Great Lakes. We will dip back to the 40s for one day, but then another warming trend kicks back in. 

And later this week, we will find ourselves under a large HIGH pressure ridge, which will allow for even MORE warm weather to spread across the Plains. I expect we will likely see more record highs threatened by the end of the week. This is crazy, but there's still a lot of winter left, so we can't get too far ahead of ourselves just yet. 

As far as precipitation is concerned, doesn't look like there will be much of a chance through this week.

Warmer weekend coming - Close call on Arctic Air

Finally Friday and how perfect on the timing of warmer air coming back to Kansas. We are going to see a big jump in temperatures Saturday and Sunday and there's a good chance we're going to have some 60s. I know the Super Bowl is on Sunday, so many of us will be glued to the TV, but before the game kicks off, soak up some spring-like weather.

Next week will be a close call on Arctic air. Our computer models continue to show a midweek cold snap, but just how cold is still a bit up in the air. We will keep an eye on this through the weekend, but I would expect temperatures will drop by Wednesday at the latest.

Kansas isn't the only area missing out on snow in the month of January. Chicago (of all places) only had .6" of snow in the entire month. It was the 5th lowest January snowfall on record. Yes, Chicago! They average close to 11 inches during the month. Many of you keep asking if we will ever have some snow this winter around here. I'll be sure to let you know when I see more concrete evidence of when that may be.

The pattern starts to look more active in mid to late February, but will it be cold enough? I still expect we are going to see another blast of Arctic air before this month is over. So we will wait to see if the stormy weather pattern happens alongside the colder air.

Back to winter - couple of storms to watch

Thanks for stopping by and spending a few minutes here on the blog. We just wrapped up a wet month of January in many parts of the state. It might not seem like that because all of our moisture came in one storm (the ice storm on January 14-15). Check this out:

• Garden City - 1.28" (3rd wettest January)
• Medicine Lodge - 3.70" (wettest January)
• Dodge City - 2.56" (wettest January)
• Wichita - 2.79" (4th wettest January)

Our next chance for moisture is coming with a fast moving storm that arrives Saturday. This isn't much of a storm and the chance for freezing drizzle has diminished in recent computer model updates. Some drizzle and a few rain showers may still develop over far eastern Kansas, but the amounts will easily be under .25"

The afternoon looks MUCH warmer - in fact we could see some 60s in the far west once again. So springlike temperatures will be coming back over the weekend.

A BIG warm up is on the way to start next week. There's a good chance we could see some 60s again at the start of the week. BUT... we are also on ARCTIC Air watch again for the middle of the week. Another storm is expected to come through the Plains around Tuesday/Wednesday time frame, which will likely drag in some much colder air. I don't think this will be a big snow maker for Kansas, but it will be one to watch.