No April Fools joke - another storm

What a great week for rainfall in Kansas. I was out of town, but couldn't quit checking the radar to see how much rain was moving through our area. Nice to see the big 2 and 3 inch amounts and thanks to Ed ONeal, we are starting to see life again in southwest Kansas where the big fires wiped out so much. Pictures are from Clark county, where the biggest wildfire in Kansas history just hit back in early March. Imagine how green these areas will be in a few weeks with some sun and warmer weather. 

Next storm on the way - 

Based on my count, this is the 4th storm to impact Kansas in just over a week. This won't produce as much rain as the previous one did, but we are still looking at a statewide event with some good soaking moisture.

Take a look where the storm is now: Using the brand new satellite that was put into space last fall, we can see it's spinning out near the 4 corners area. 

When does the rain start? Showers (and a few storms too) will be coming back to western Kansas late tonight (Friday night) and then spreading east through the day on Saturday. We won't have severe weather, but some thunder is possible, especially early Saturday. Generally speaking, widespread .25-.50" can be expected, but if you are under some thunderstorms, you'll likely to get over .50".

And - if you don't get enough rain this weekend, another storm is on the way (#5 in over a week) will be arriving next Tuesday/Wednesday. Computer models aren't exactly set on how much precipitation could fall, but it's another storm to watch with potential more soaking rains on the way.

Just the beginning

It was very exciting to see rain back in western Kansas Thursday evening. But as expected, the amounts maybe were lower than you were hoping and still others didn't get a drop. The severe weather was rather spotty, but we did have one wind report of 81 mph winds near Garden City. It caused some tree damage and power outages.

Setup for today - Friday

Still a chance for some rain today - 
Our first in a series of storms will be right over Kansas today, which means we might be able to fire off some scattered rain and storms. Rain in western Kansas will be moving south, while rain in the eastern half of the state will go north (that's the counter-clockwise spin around a low)

2nd storm on Sunday - 
The next system will be arriving later in the weekend. This isn't shaping up to be a strong storm system, but it does bring another opportunity for some showers and a couple of storms. I don't expect severe weather, but a rouge strong storm can't be ruled out.

3rd (and maybe most promising) storm - next week:
A slow moving storm system will slide into the central and southern Plains during the Tuesday - Thursday time frame. It will ingest some rich Gulf of Mexico moisture and we could and should see some widespread rains. It's been months since we've seen this setup (maybe since the ice storm back in mid January), but fingers crossed that this will work out in our favor. Forecast models are showing some 1-2"+ amounts by the end of next week. I'll post both models here so you can look for yourself. Don't focus too much on exact numbers, but the overall idea here is that we could have drought easing rains in the Plains next week.

European model

GFS Model

Have a great weekend everyone!

Not 1, Not 2, but....

Four different storms could be impacting Kansas over the next 10-12 days! Yes, that's what we will be focusing on as we finish off March and head into early April. We have to get something out of these passing systems, or the drought is going to be expanding and covering much of the state.

I'll walk you through what I'm seeing over the next 10 days.

Storm #1: There's a very small chance for an isolated severe storm Thursday evening across western Kansas. A wind gust up to 60 mph is possible along with some brief hail, but this window of opportunity for severe weather is likely just a few hours. Once we get to sunset, that will likely be the end of the stronger storms.

Rainfall amounts will mostly be .25" or less, but far northwest Kansas (around Goodland and Colby) could get more (around .50") AND areas east of the Flint Hills will likely see some .50-1".

Storm #2: The severe chance with this particular event is very low. This system should arrive toward the end of the weekend with rain expected over the southern half of the state. We may not get much moisture out of this system either, but it will be a feature to watch later on in the weekend.

Storm #3: Arriving next Tuesday/Wednesday, this will be a storm that has the potential of producing some nice rains around the area. Depending on the track and how much Gulf moisture it can intercept, we will see how things pan out for the central Plains. But some of the models are hinting at some .50-1" amounts during the middle of next week (March 28-29)

Finally, Storm #4: If the models are correct, March may go out like a tame lion. What might be the last in a series of storms will be arriving right around the end of the month. There are indications of heavier rains with this storm, but it's way too early to know exactly what will take place. It's still more than a week away and a storm that isn't even reality yet.

The most important takeaway here is that IF you don't get the amount of rain you were hoping for on Thursday or Friday (of this week), don't be too upset. We have several more chances heading our way, and after waiting more than 2 months, I'd say we are overdue. 

Some strong storms possible soon

The chance for scattered storms is still in the forecast later this week. Timing, strength, and amounts of precipitation are coming into better focus now that we are getting closer.

There will be very little rain between now and Thursday early afternoon. Any precipitation that does develop will be little more than some drizzle or a quick passing shower. 

Thursday -  We still expect thunderstorms to develop across western Kansas into the evening hours (most likely after 6 p.m.) Chances for severe weather are pretty slim, but for a couple of hours we might see a few storms produce some hail and gusty winds. Best chances for any hail at all will be west of a Hays to Dodge City line. As the storms move east, they will weaken quickly.

Rainfall amounts - Still doesn't look like Kansas will get much out of this first storm coming through. In most cases, it will be under .25" (unless you get caught under a thunderstorms, then it might be heavier)

But we have some other chances coming late in the weekend and next week too. Try to not get disheartened by the lack of rain at the end of the week. We are just at the start of what will likely be an active patter for the remainder of March and into early April.

Stormy pattern returns later this week

Welcome to Monday and to SPRING!! After a rather uneventful winter with record low snowfall for parts of Kansas, we move on to the next season and start preparing the next weather change.

Most of us had an early taste of summer yesterday. Crazy to see 90° weather on the last day of winter and in March, but then again, everything has been out of whack lately. There were a handful of records tied or broken, and we might see a few of them tied again today.

Much cooler tomorrow (Tuesday) - 
Temperatures are going to be coming back down in a big way for Tuesday/Wednesday. It's not bitterly cold or Arctic air (that's over with now), but we should fall below normal for highs. Most of us will see 50s through midweek.

Stormy pattern later this week -
So many requests for rain and as we head into the second half of the week, the pattern FINALLY changes. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be back as early as Thursday. While the setup could bring a few severe storms to Kansas, it looks more likely for severe storms south of Kansas into Oklahoma and Texas. Once the storms forms in western Kansas Thursday evening, they will quickly race east into the night. And that's a problem - the storms don't stick around long enough to produce any substantial moisture. The forecast models are in pretty good agreement that amounts will be on the lower end.

Bottom line is that the first storm system coming later this week isn't likely to produce much more than some .25-.5" amounts. There will be at least 2 more systems coming, and hopefully, we will get rain. Drought conditions continue to expand across many areas of the state. 

Very active pattern setting up next week

Thanks for spending a few minutes here on the blog as we get ready for a very warm stretch of weather heading into our last weekend of winter (not much of a winter this year). Our cold blasts were short and what little snow we had didn't ever amount to all that much. Just look at the numbers:

• Goodland - (this year: 9.4" - normal is 26.9")
• Topeka - (this year: 6.6" - normal is 16.9")
• Dodge City - (this year: 5" - normal is 17.5)
• Wichita - (this year: 2" - normal 13.7")

The official start to spring is coming up on Monday at 5:29 A.M. Daytime and nighttime are almost at equal lengths.

Our weather pattern has been really uneventful lately. After dealing with extreme wildfires last week, most of us know how bad we need some precipitation to get things greening up. 

The weather pattern is about to turn active, and it could be a stormy couple of weeks for the central Plains. Are we about to see some snow or severe storms?

Storm #1:

This system will arrive around Thursday (March 23) and I don't expect it to produce any snow (surprise surprise). There is a possibility we could have some thunderstorms as the system rolls through. Chances for severe storms could be returning to the area too. I'm not that optimistic about rain in western Kansas (with this storm), but there's plenty of time for the models to change their output.

Storm #2:

We will have to keep our eyes to the west late in the week as yet another system comes our way. This one should be stronger than the first and we could be looking at a much better chance for rain once we hit the weekend. Granted, this is still more than a week away, but several models continue to show stormy weather into the middle of the country by March 26/27.

Caution: These storms have to dive farther south in order to get rain to fall in western Kansas. If they don't, the Gulf of Mexico moisture will go east and it will be a disappointing outcome across the western half of Kansas. 

Major Nor'easter - when is it our turn for active weather?

As the Northeast gets slammed with a major winter storm today, we sit back, watch and wait for the next chance for moisture here in the Plains. What's interesting is that we are on the western edge of the cold air that is helping create the snow flying east of us. This big pocket of bitter cold will continue to move east in the coming days, so we will see a return to spring-like weather by the end of the week.

When will it be our turn for stormy weather?

The pattern isn't going to be very helpful in producing stormy weather in Kansas for at least another 5-6 days. However, most of the forecast models are showing a return to a more active weather setup heading into next week. I expect a series of western storms to arrive beginning about Wednesday (March 22) and continuing into our first weekend of spring. As far as how much precipitation we might get is unclear, but I'm going to show you two model predictions. This is total rainfall accumulation between now and next Thursday night (March 23). There are differences, but at least they are showing something for our area. We could be looking at the possibility of at least two different systems coming through Kansas.

European model

American (GFS model)

I don't expect a ton of precipitation, but it could be more than double what some have had in the last two months. As I mentioned last week, Kansas hasn't been in the right spot for generous rains (or snows for that matter) and we are getting to the crucial time of year when we need to start getting the precipitation. Spring, after all, is typically our wettest times of the year. 

Finally, some rain - when does the pattern finally break?

March is quickly flying by and other than wind and major grass fires, we still haven't had a decent storm in two months. The last big system was the ice storm during the middle of January. 

We finally saw some rain move across the burn scars in southwest Kansas yesterday (Sunday) evening. Some of the heaviest (and it probably wan't more than .20") went through Clark county. You can see how the radar looked at 10:30 last night. 

Check this out:

Today will likely end up with below normal high temperatures around our state. This will mark 4 days in a row with cooler than average temperatures, which matches the longest stretch of below normal high temperatures for the entire winter (since December 1). It's only 4 days, so it's nothing earth shattering, but it does put into perspective just how little cold air we've had this season.

Major Nor'easter:

While our temperatures might be cold enough for snow, we don't expect any snowfall around here this week. But look at this huge storm that is forecast to drop up to 2 feet of snow on major cities. Maybe you are hearing about a bomb storm, or bomb cyclone. All that means is that the storm is going to rapidly intensify in a very short amount of time (usually less than 12 hours) These are the ones that produce major snows and can shut cities down.

Our pattern this week:

It will be a chilly week and pretty uneventful. Our upper level winds are coming out of the northwest and usually when we see this setup, rain and snow chances are minimal and the weather isn't very exciting at all.

Tomorrow we will look ahead to the next potential storm that may impact Kansas and surrounding areas. I know we have so many areas begging for rain, but the pattern this week isn't very helpful.

Next rain chances & a hard freeze coming

I knew it had been windy for nearly a week, but when I looked at the stats yesterday, I was amazed at how much wind we've been seeing. Just look at the numbers. Both Wichita and Hutch haven't had a single day with a gust below 30 mph. That changes today as our next cold front approaches from the north. The winds go down and will turn back to the north soon.

Next Rain Chance: It is still on the maps for Friday night - early Saturday. This is a storm that is coming from the northwest and intercepting moisture over Kansas. It's NOT a favorable storm track to produce widespread moisture. We would like for it to come from the southwest, but there's nothing we can do to change it. A wintry mix is even expected for a few spots early Saturday. Snow could mix with the rain, but unless you live up around K.C. or northern Missouri, it's not likely to be enough to shovel.

Another Freeze is Coming!

I've had some phone calls and people stop me at the store asking if it's safe to go ahead and start their garden. I'd suggest waiting a little longer because we have another shot of colder air coming south to start next week. Forecast models are locking in on a front arriving Sunday night and dropping us back to the 30s and 40s to start next week. And, by Tuesday morning, a widespread hard freeze is likely. So hold off if you can - winter isn't quite over yet (even though we've had so little winter this year)

Tornado Drill today - Next rain chances

Just a reminder about the statewide tornado drill today - 10 a.m. This is the time to practice those safety drills and be ready for the upcoming storm season. Just about everyone knows the basement is the place to be during a tornado, but what room would you go to and have you thought about the heavy objects directly above you in your home? I try to teach kids that they should think about going to rooms in the basement that are not under heavy objects that can fall through the floor.

And if you live in an apartment, what would you do to seek shelter? Generally speaking, the best option is to get to lower floors where the winds will not be as strong.

The wind is finally going to go down Tuesday night, but breezy conditions return to central and eastern Kansas on Wednesday. 

Next Rain Chance -
We are expecting a fast moving system to come through Friday night and early Saturday. The amount and timing of the rain is still a little unclear, but the forecast models that I reference quite often here on the blog both agree some showers will come through at the end of the week. The storm system will approach from the northwest, which isn't very favorable for widespread moisture. But we can always hope for the best.

Take a look at both model predictions and remember, because we are still 4 days away from the event, there will be some changes as we get closer in time. It would be nice to track some rain instead of grass fires... and I know the firefighters would certainly welcome some sleep and a break from the relentless wind.

How much longer for the wind - Severe Weather Awareness

Good Monday morning! This is Severe Weather Awareness week in Kansas and it's a great time to review severe weather safety with your family. The season has already started because of the unusual warmth that we've had lately. You might remember us tracking some severe storms in southeast Kansas last Tuesday night. And more severe storms are possible today just off to our east. Take a look at the severe weather outlook:

TORNADO SIRENS WILL SOUND TUESDAY - 10:00 a.m. - this is the statewide tornado drill that happens as part of severe weather awareness. 

When will the wind finally go down?

The incredible wind gusts that we are looking at for today (Monday) are being created by a storm coming from the west coast. It's tracking too far north to do us any good here, but we get the wind and fire danger. We expect wind gusts of 50-60 mph in several spots today, and although the wind will back off some tonight, it's not until Tuesday night that wind goes down even more. It shouldn't be as windy once we get to Wednesday and the second half of the week.

I know that we need rain in a very bad way, but the chances are very slim until Friday night or Saturday when a stronger cold front will be arriving. Even then, it's only a small chance for some scattered showers. A good soaking rain just isn't in the works for Kansas right now.

Drought update - when will we see some rain?

Welcome to Friday. We are heading into our last weekend on standard time, so next weekend, we lose that hour of sleep. Thanks for stopping by the blog. We continue to be in a spot that just isn't getting ANY moisture at all. It's been rather unfortunate to watch so many systems get close to Kansas, but yet the ingredients just aren't there for precipitation.

The latest drought monitor came in yesterday and it shows conditions are getting worse in western Kansas. Dodge City has now gone 46 days (counting Friday) without any moisture (that includes measurable rain & snow). And I'm sure some places have gone even longer without rain/snow.

Looking Ahead:
I had a comment on the blog yesterday asking about our next chances for moisture. Well, let's take a look at the next couple of weather features through the next few weeks. It just doesn't look promising through the middle of this month.

The next cold front scheduled to arrive will get here Monday evening/night. But once again, look where the better chances for rain will setup - EAST! We have had some very close encounters with rain/thunder/and a few weeks ago, snow. But just about everything seems to go around us.

Pattern for March 12

And if we look even farther out, into our second full week of March, the pattern still doesn't hold much promise. When the jet stream winds (usually around 30-40,000 feet) come from the northwest, Gulf of Mexico moisture usually gets pushed farther east. This can result in a very disappointing forecast when it comes to rain.

Around March 21/22