Weekend storm - are we about to set records?

It's finally Friday and the weekend is almost here. Our next storm is just hours away and this one impacts everyone in Kansas. Most of you reading this will get rain, but then there's the wintry side that's going to create some headaches.

Are we about to set a record for latest snowfall?
Goodland had measurable snow on May 19th back in 1915. And I think some of you will be able to recall a dusting of snow even in early May. Depending on how the storm tracks, some places might threaten records for most significant snow this late in the season.

Rainfall records:
Assuming 2 inches of moisture over the weekend, most of the state will at least move into the top 10 wettest Aprils on record. Take a look:

• Wichita Now: 5.64" + 2.00" = 7.64" (would be the 3rd wettest)
• Salina Now: 2.47" + 2.00" = 4.47" (would be 7th wettest)
• Dodge City Now: 4.51" + 2.00"= 6.51" (would be 2nd wettest)
• Goodland Now: 1.54" + 2.00"= 3.54" (would be 9th wettest)

How much rain this weekend:

Forecast models are still pretty consistent on about 2 inches for most of the state. As is the case in any event, some get more and others less. Don't focus too much on the exact numbers for each location, but the overall idea is that we will have widespread rains and some will be heavy. Some of the moisture in western Kansas will be snow too.

Snow forecast:

Western Kansas will get some snow both Saturday AND Sunday morning. The concern is that a heavy wet snow on trees NOW with leaves could create a lot of extra weight. And with wind coming with the snow, it's possible we could see some tree damage. This will be a heavy, wet snow with a lot of moisture content. Some of the flakes will melt as they hit the ground, but on grassy areas, we could see snow sticking.

The forecast isn't what most you would order up for a weekend, but on the bright side, at least we don't have to worry about hail, wind, tornadoes, etc. We get pretty lucky with this April storm.

Who will get snow this weekend?

We might be paying a small price for all of the mild weather we had this winter. This weekend, a storm will not only soak much of the central US, but snow is going to fall too. We don't expect very much, it's not much of a stretch to think some areas might get an inch or two on grassy surfaces during the height of the storm.

So where will the snow be?

Saturday morning

Sunday morning

There could be some snow Saturday morning in far western Kansas (mainly from Syracuse up to around Goodland and Colby), but even more areas will get snow by Sunday morning. It could look like winter Sunday morning across central and western Kansas. I think if you are west of a line from Concordia, to Ellsworth, down to Medicine Lodge, you might see some snow mixing with the rain.

This is going to be a very wet storm for the weekend. Both days look pretty soggy and chilly, but on a positive note, at least we aren't going to have destructive hail or wind storms to worry about. The severe chances will setup to our south heading through the weekend.

Major flooding and could a change be on the way

It's sounding a little bit like a broken record talking about rain every other day, but the stormy pattern that started in late March just keeps on now as we close the month of April. Looking at the calendar (and counting rain on the 25th), we've had 11 days this month with measurable rainfall.

Major Flooding!
This could be in the works for the weekend off to the southeast of Kansas. From eastern Oklahoma all the way to St. Louis, models are indicating some very heavy rains and these areas don't need it right now. If the forecast pans out the way it's looking now, some areas could get 5 or 6 inches of rain (maybe more). Needless to say, that could cause some big problems. I don't expect severe storms in Kansas this weekend as we will be on the cool side of the front, reducing the chance for hail and wind.

We are going to have widespread rains of our own here in Kansas, but not on those kinds of levels. It's looking like mostly 1-2 inch rains, but we are still 3 days out from the event, so there could be some changes to that. And then there's the chance for a rain/snow mix in the far west too... Kansas weather is just crazy sometimes.

Some snow... yes SNOW... is even expected across western Kansas both Saturday and maybe even Sunday morning too. Some of the snow might stick in grassy areas, but the ground has warmed up some, so I don't think it would stick for very long.

The cool, wet and stormy weather pattern will likely last another couple of weeks. But in the longer range, I see a shift coming in the jet stream that could result in a longer stretch of drier weather. There's a possibility we could go into more of a northwest wind pattern that would help us dry out. If the models are correct, that might happen around May 10-15th. We like having the rain, but we could sure spread this out over longer periods to reduce the flooding threats.

Stormy pattern reloads over central US

It's what some of us don't need - more rain. And if you read the blog last Friday, we briefly touched on what could be a stormy (severe weather) setup coming later this week. Late April though May is typically the busiest time in Kansas for severe storms, although as we know, they can happen at any time.

As of this writing, there have been a total of 16 tornado reports, 131 hail reports, and 83 for wind. The season is still very early - last year there were 99 tornado reports, 569 hail, and 539 for wind.

First Storm to Watch:

This is coming through Tuesday evening - early Wednesday: No severe weather expected

A cold front will push on through Kansas and drop the temperatures rather significantly. It brings with it a chance for scattered rain showers, but nothing heavy expected and no flooding potential. Amounts should mainly be under .50"

Storm Setup Late in the Week:

We are starting to see some alignment in the computer models suggesting that strong - severe storms will be back in the Plains late in the week. Areas from Oklahoma to Missouri, to Arkansas look to have the highest chances for severe storms, but almost all of us are going to see more rain by the weekend. 

Stick with us through the week as the forecast comes into better focus. The weather pattern still looks very active into early May, and even if we dodge the severe weather, flooding could still be a big problem for our area. 

New weather station, meteors, & severe storms

A project that has been in the works for a VERY long time has finally reached completion. I was approached over a year ago about helping install a weather station for Via-Christi's Georgetown senior living facility. There were some obstacles that we thought might get in the way early on, but as it turns out, we found a way. With the help of some dedicated individuals, residents at Georgetown will now be able to watch (in real-time) rainfall reports, wind gusts, check the temperature, and see what the wind gusts are during a storm.

The weather is always a topic of discussion, and even those that aren't particularly interested in knowing the current conditions, seemed excited that they could now get live weather reports anytime they wanted. To help celebrate the kickoff, Millie and I will be giving a weather presentation today (Friday) to the residents there. I hope they enjoy the new weather station and many days and years to come of watching Kansas weather with us.

LYRID METEOR SHOWER:
There is a meteor shower taking place this weekend. It's the Lyrid meteor shower, but viewing will be less than ideal because of the clouds and rain. But if... and it's a big if... there should be some breaks in the clouds where you live early Saturday (which might include some of western Kansas), you can look to the northeast for the meteors. There could be 10-20 per hour with ideal viewing conditions (that being clear skies and moonless skies). This isn't one of the better meteor showers, but they can be entertaining if the weather cooperates.

Potential Severe Weather Setup:
We have more storms in the forecast later next week. The setup is a bit more difficult to try and pin down the timing of the rain, but it's looking more favorable toward the end of the week. It's a setup that could include severe weather as well. One feature that stands out to me is the strong winds coming into the Plains in the Thursday time frame. There are other factors as well, but it's a time period we will update you on as we get closer in time.

Have a great weekend!!

Rainfall amounts - more coming

Many of you reach out to us for rainfall amounts around the area and they can be hard to find on the internet. So here's a list of what has come in this morning (as of 7 a.m.):

Pratt - 1.67"
Marquette - 1.50"

Kingman - 1.30"

Wichita - 1.22"

Concordia - 0.97"

13th & Greenwich - 0.93"

Newton - 0.78"

Hutch - 0.61"

Salina - 0.37"

Goodland - 0.10"

Great Bend - 0.09"

Winfield - 0.05"

Medicine Lodge - 0.01"

Next round on the way for Friday! A flood watch cover south central and southeast Kansas where the majority of the rain will be. PLEASE avoid flooded areas. I know it's tempting to take the chance, but roads get washed out and it's never worth the risk. Forecast models give much of central and south central Kansas another inch of rain tomorrow. Southeast Kansas is going to get even more, with over 2 expected there. I expect northwest Kansas will get up to .50", which is good news because some of the recent rains have missed that part of the state.

Severe weather & flooding update

I wanted to give you a quick update on timing of the severe weather expected today in parts of Kansas. It's looking like storms will develop after 6 p.m. in central and northeast Kansas (area shaded in light yellow) which should include Salina. Hail up to golf ball size and some winds over 60 mph look to be the biggest threats. The tornado threat looks much more likely in parts of Iowa where the upper level winds look more favorable.

Storms will move east once they fire up, but gradually through the evening, we expect the storms to shift southeast. After midnight, the severe threat should be over.

Friday Flooding:
Still looks like most of Kansas could be in line for some heavier rainfall Friday. There's still so much standing water around the area that another 1-2" of rain could cause some problems. Your sump pump will likely get a workout as this slow, steady rain sets in. Severe weather is very unlikely as the temperatures will be quite cool (cool air diminishes the severe threat).

European model

GFS (American Model) rain prediction

Stick with us throughout the day for updates on severe storms. Let us know if you have questions. Have a great Wednesday.

Rain keeps coming - some severe & flooding too

It's now been a month since the wet pattern set in across the Plains and it just keeps on coming! Later this week I'll take a more in-depth look at the end of April and into early May. But for this week, we have two particular storms we are watching that will have an impact as the week continues.

First, look at the rainfall comparison for 2017 (year to date) compared to 2016:

Dodge City: 

• 2017: 9.19"    /     2016: 6.10"

Wichita:

• 2017: 10.92"  /     2016: 3.53"

Goodland

• 2017: 2.93"   /      2016: 4.06"

So northwest Kansas hasn't quite had the big rains that other parts of the state have had. In fact, look at this map from the last two weeks. Northwest Kansas has only recorded trace amounts. So that's an areas of the state that would like to have more moisture before the faucet gets turned off.

Severe Setup Wednesday:

Another cold front is scheduled to arrive during the afternoon/early evening hours. While this is not going to be anything more than some isolated severe storms, some hail and wind will be possible.

Late Week Storm - Flooding Concerns:

I'm most interested in the late week storm that is headed for the Plains. This system has the potential of producing more heavy, widespread rains that could cause some serious flooding issues. The ground is so wet in many places that another 1-3" of rain could be harmful. This is not looking like a big severe weather setup for Kansas, but it's a slow mover that will likely drench much of the Plains.

Very active weather pattern

It's Good Friday and I want to wish everyone a Happy Easter. While this weekend does bring some storm chances to the area, it's not going to be a complete washout for Kansas. I'm still finding mixed opinions about the rain. Some need it and others still want a few more weeks to dry out. The new drought monitor that came out yesterday (Thursday) shows more improvement across southwest Kansas. We don't have any areas of "extreme" drought, but still some dry areas.

SATURDAY STORM SETUP:
The setup into Saturday hasn't changed much from what we've been talking about throughout the week. A cold front will produce showers and storms Saturday evening, and some are going to produce hail and very heavy rains. There's been some concern of flooding just because the ground is still very wet AND the cold front is going to slow down, which means the storms might hang around longer. An inch or two of rain in a 2-3 hour time frame could cause some problems.

Here's the area where I think the concern for flooding is the highest:

 NEXT WEEK STORMY SETUP:
And next week, the forecast is difficult. We have several different systems lined up and ready to move through the Plains. So the challenge for us is to figure out which time period has the best chance of yielding rain. This looks like a very active pattern! While we may not have a ton of severe storms, there's a good chance we may have a lot of wet days coming our way. It would be nice to spread this rain out and not get it all at one time.

Smoke, rain chances, and severe storms

The smoke was pretty thick last night in so many different areas around the state. As much as we hate getting inundated with smoke, the controlled burns are a pretty important part of maintaining grassland and keeping some unwanted vegetation under control. The sunset was extra red yesterday evening (picture courtesy Gary Fiedler). Kevin Swinicki shared another photo from near the Hillsboro area where there were more controlled burns Tuesday afternoon. 

Rain chances are coming back to Kansas today (Wednesday), but only to a few areas. The setup today involves a front across western and northern Kansas that will help to get a few spotty storms going. The chance for severe weather is very low, but that doesn't mean we couldn't have some small hail from time to time. And rainfall amounts (where it's heaviest) could pick up some .50-.75" by early Friday morning.

Friday afternoon is looking windy and warm. Any rain will get out of here very early in the day.

Our Easter weekend forecast calls for storms Saturday evening/night. This setup could allow for some severe storms to develop over southwest, central, and eastern Kansas. Main threat will be some hail, wind, and some very heavy downpours. As we head deeper into Saturday night, the rain will gradually shift south and east, and by Easter morning, much of the rain will be out of our area. 

More stormy weather ahead

We are coming off our first dry and warm weekend we've had in about 3 weeks. Most of the puddles are drying up, but you don't have to look very far to still find standing water. 

Spring is our time of the year to get some good rains, and we may have another active weather pattern about to unfold here later this week. Several of the computer models place Kansas in a favorable spot to see several different rounds of rain and storms, but figuring out time and location will be main task later in the week.

First rain chance - Wednesday/Thursday:

This is not a big storm, but this system is coming from the west and will develop some scattered rain showers in western Kansas mid-late morning Wednesday They should move east later in the day. Rainfall amounts are looking to be in the 0.25-.50" range for many areas ( not the big 2-3" amounts we saw a few weeks ago) 

European model

GFS model

Another small system - Friday:

A weak storm system will be in the area on Friday, which could lead to some scattered showers. Best chance is looking to be over the eastern 1/3 of the state. You can see the model predictions for rainfall over Kansas through midday on Friday. Regardless of which model you pick, our amounts aren't going to be what they were a few weeks ago, but much of the state will see something between now and the weekend.

Saturday - looking dry right now for most of the area

Easter Sunday:

We will have to watch the development of a bigger storm in the western US, which could lead to storm chances late in the holiday weekend. 

Severe chance this weekend

The week is winding down and some of the bank-full creeks and streams are starting to go down now that the faucet has been turned off. Here's a map showing the rainfall from the last 30 days, which sets the drought back significantly. Take a look at the drought map one week ago, and where we are today. The recent rains don't wipe it out completely because it takes awhile to recharge some of the sub soil moisture and some of these places hadn't had any rain until about 2 weeks ago.

Sunday Severe Threat:
We should enjoy some sunny and warmer weather into the weekend, but I'm watching another system (cold front) that will be pushing through our state on Sunday. All indications point toward some scattered storms developing into Sunday evening. I think most of the severe weather will be east of us, but if you are southeast of the Turnpike, keep a heads up to Sunday evening. Spotty severe storms may start developing after 6 p.m. The storms won't be around for too long because by Monday morning, they will all be east into Missouri, Arkansas, and eastern Oklahoma.

Spring gardeners, heads up!

Welcome to Wednesday! The last in a series of storms has finally moved on to the east and we won't see anymore widespread rain now for awhile. 

Kevin from the Inman area sent us this picture. There were several locations that ended up with close to 2" and there's so much standing water in places.

Here are the 24 hour rainfall totals for some select spots:

Hutch: 1.89"

Kingman: 1.85"

Newton: 1.46"

Dodge City: 1.16"

Pratt: 1.16"

Wichita: 1.13"

Liberal: 1.09"

Salina: 0.96"

Medicine Lodge: 0.95"

Garden City: 0.76"

Russell: 0.63"

Great Bend: 0.44"

Winfield: 0.40"

If you have already started your spring garden, I'm a bit concerned for some light frost in a few spots early Thursday. Forecast temperatures will all drop into the 30s, and even though a hard freeze is very unlikely, some sensitive plants may not like the cold start Thursday morning. I know we get anxious sometimes to get the garden going as soon as we can, but it can still be a bit risky in early April. 

Big severe weather is expected today farther east. Hail and possible tornadoes with storms impacting major metropolitan areas. Going to be a rough day flying in and out of Atlanta.