Interesting pattern setting up for Kansas

Friday is here and this is shaping up to be the coolest weekend of the entire month. The last time we had anything close to what we are forecasting this weekend was back at the beginning of the month. So if you don't mind some humidity, the forecast isn't looking too bad.

Best rain chances over the next week will be favored in western Kansas, where some places will pick up 1-2".

Saturday -
Areas west of a Dodge City to Hays line will have a chance at some scattered rain showers. It would be very unlikely for severe storms, but watch for quick heavy downpours. Central and eastern Kansas will have some sun and highs in the 80s.

Sunday -
A batch of showers will move from west to east, but just as the rain tries to get into central Kansas, it will probably be falling apart. Western Kansas will get the majority of the rain Sunday, but amounts farther east will likely be less than exciting (probably under .25")

Next week -
Good news is that NO TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES are forecast anywhere in the area. Most of us are going to have low to mid 80s. Rain chances will be favored across western Kansas once again, but there is one day in particular where we might see the moisture get a bit farther east east. That will be Wednesday evening/early Thursday.

Long range thoughts:
I'm fairly certain the first half of August will continue to be cooler than normal. We may not see any 100s until we get to the second half of the month, and even then, they should be very brief.

As far as rain is concerned, I don't see any major changes in the pattern that will send us into a really wet stretch. The occasional chances for spotty rain and storms seems most reasonable from I what see, but if you can get the right storm over your spot, you just might get some of that liquid gold.

Goodbye heat - hello rain chances

Today (Wednesday) will likely be the hottest day we will have for the next few weeks. Just let that soak in while we discuss the rain chances today. Although not everyone is going to get rain (that's maybe the bad news), at least we have chances with our cold front coming on through the state.

4 p.m. Today

5:30 p.m. Today

Storms through the afternoon and evening will be spotty, and the least likely areas to get rain will be farther north (north of I-70)

There is another batch of rain that should move out of eastern Colorado later in the night, which should catch western Kansas early Thursday.

The HUGE heat dome continues to setup farther west, so we can expect the next 2 weeks to have below normal temperatures for much of Kansas. That means mostly highs in the 80s!! And there will be some off and on rain chances mainly for western Kansas. I think Friday night/Saturday night/Sunday have good chances for storms, mainly across the west. How far east they will get is unclear, but I'll update you when the forecast gets a little more clearer.

Mini heat wave ends - early look into August

We are having a mini heat wave this week, but it's about to end. And after going through all of the 100° weather from last week, I'm sure you are happy to hear that kind of news. The corn, milo, and soybeans could sure use a good drink of water too, which is something we are hopefully going to see as this mini heat wave ends.

This month has been really hard on the northern Plains where drought continues to expand and temperatures have just been WAY above normal. Parts of eastern Montana have an average high this month of 93.5° - not what you'd expect so far north. And the heat is going to continue to be a problem for the remainder of the summer. 

Cold front arriving Wednesday -

We still expect a front to move into Kansas and start producing more storms - some with heavy rains. Chances will likely ramp up after 5/6 p.m. The front is also going to help shove the blistering heat out of here.

What's to come heading into August?

The massive heat dome that was right over Kansas last week will be southwest of us this week. That means this:

• Less heat
• Increased rain chances

And look at this heading into August?

The heat dome should shift toward the west next week and we will likely end up with a stretch of more seasonal summer weather. As long as we can keep that giant "H" away from our state, we won't have to deal with as much blistering heat. 

First full week of August (around the 8th):

It's looking like the "H" is going to settle farther west out toward California, which if that happens, we will escape any potential of a heat wave. 

More rain/changes coming this week

Good Monday morning and hope you had a great weekend. It was nice to see some rain over the weekend (for those that had it), but I know from looking at my Twitter feed, there was frustration among those who were missed. That's the trouble with summer storms. More times than not, you're dealing with scattered storms... not widespread rains.

So here's what to look at this week. Yes, it's hot for the next few days, but a cold front arriving Wednesday will be one of our best chances for storms this week. Here's a look at the latest data on our Future Track. It's got a pretty good chance of producing storms around the area and hopefully catch some of the areas that were missed over the weekend.

Cooler later this week!! That's right, the front coming Wednesday will send our temperatures back to upper 80s and low 90s for the end of the week. It will be a noticeable change, but we won't be able to get rid of the humidity. The big dome of high pressure will be farther south and west this week, which means our temperatures will not be as hot.

Hopefully you'll stick with us this week as we track the changes. It will be nice to have something other than just 100 degree temperatures to watch over the next several days.

Weekend rain chance update

We've come to the end of a very hot week in Kansas. It wasn't a record setting week, but then again it doesn't have to be in order to be dangerous and flat out uncomfortable. 

If you've been following the forecast with us, you know we are expected to have some relief this weekend in terms of temperatures and the dry weather we've had. Here's the latest on the rain chances:

Saturday -

Slow moving front gets into the area and starts knocking temperatures down in western Kansas. Scattered storm chances will increase across northwest and north central Kansas during the evening hours. It's unlikely they will be severe, but watch for quick downpours and lightning. Our Future Track shows storms around 6-7 p.m. in the northwest and those should move east into the night.

Sunday -

As the front continues to push a little farther south, chances for storms will also be on the move. Although it doesn't look that promising, there is still a chance from Dodge City to Wichita for some rain and storms (with most storms not likely to be severe). 

All we can do is sit back and hope for some rain... even if it doesn't turn out to be much. We can be thankful for some heat relief if nothing else. Have a great weekend.

How much longer do we have to wait?

Welcome to Thursday and just 3 more days stand between us and our next possible change in Kansas weather. Our weather pattern is kinda stuck in neutral. Summer patterns are notorious for being slow to change because the upper level winds are so weak (they are less than 20 mph over Kansas).

Salina stat:

Currently tied for the 10th hottest on record! The average temperature is up to 84.9 and will likely go higher with more 100s coming to finish the week. Only one day this month has failed to have an above normal high.

Wichita:

Not even close to setting any records for heat this month. In fact, our average temperature doesn't even make the top 15 hottest, as our average temperature stands at 81.6°

Into the weekend:

The big heat dome is going to break down by Friday and slide east of Kansas. This will open the door for something to come in here and change the weather, even if just briefly.

The cold front should reach northwest Kansas by Saturday evening, bringing a chance for some storms. I'm not exactly sure how far south these will get, but let's watch the next couple of model runs to see what changes. I'd say if you are north of I-70 Saturday night, you have a decent shot at some rain.

It still looks like Sunday has a better chance for storms farther south, but not until the evening/nighttime hours. The front should be slow to move, and right now it looks like areas south of a Dodge City to Wichita line might have the best chances.

It's hard to be the messenger of bad news sometimes, but just look at what the computer data is telling us at the end of next week! The heat dome could be making a comeback! We will see.

Heat wave returns - but a big change looms

Weather patterns can be very stubborn sometimes, and what we are dealing with this week is one of those patterns. It's nothing unusual or record setting, but it does require us to plan accordingly and prepare. Kansas will be under a very large, high pressure system that's going to keep temperatures hot and keep rain chances at bay. We did get lucky with some rain in north central Kansas yesterday evening (Monday eve), but those chances quickly fade as the "H" get stronger.

This summer so far (from June 1-July 17), hasn't been quite as hot as last summer. The difference though is pretty small. Just look at the average for Salina, Dodge City, and Wichita.

Storm chances will go way north and east of us through the middle of the week. Monsoon moisture has returned to the southwest US and resulted in some pockets of major, deadly flooding. The devastating flood in Arizona from over the weekend was created by just an inch and a half (1.50") of rain.

Sometimes monsoon moisture west of the Continental Divide can reach Kansas, but that doesn't happen this week. 

Changes coming!!

First, the big heat dome will break down this weekend and move to the east. Then a front should get into Kansas Saturday night/Sunday. Temperatures will cool down into the 70s and 80s by the end of the weekend AND we should have some pretty good chances for storms to arrive. Right now, computer models are showing storms in western Kansas Saturday night and early Sunday, but then spreading east by Sunday night. Next week looks MUCH cooler for most of the area. So check back as we track this change headed to Kansas. 

Relief for now, but how about later this month

Friday is here and if you've had any measurable rain at all in the last few days, count yourself as lucky. Storms have been spotty and I know it's frustrating. Maybe your neighbor had 2 inches while you had nothing. It's just that kind of setup, but nothing we can do about it except look ahead to the next chance.

4" just SW of McPherson

2.14" near Enterprise

Other Amounts through 7 a.m.:
Garden City - 0.76"
Wichita - 0.65"
Hutch - 0.54"
Pratt - 0.17"
Dodge City - 0.10"
Great Bend - 0.02"

While a few storms might pop up across southern Kansas today, chances are slim. But even if you don't get rain today, at least we won't have 100° temperatures staring us in the face.
The humidity ... not going away:

Alright, so this weekend, I expect some rain and thunder to develop across much of eastern Colorado. And although it's going to try and drift east, I don't think it's going to make much progress into western Kansas. But we might see some rain in far, far western Kansas. The rest of us... not going to happen.

Longer Range:
After the hot, dry stretch next week, could we see a bigger drop in temperatures? The map posted below shows next weekend (July 22/23). The pattern may shift and result in a storm coming through the northern Rockies, which would drive a cold front down through the Plains and set us up for some rain and cooler weather to end July. We are moving into the dog days of summer and what is typically the hottest point of the year. Oh boy!

Storm chances are back - breaking the heat wave

The heat in Kansas is a little out of control, especially when you see how our numbers stack up to places that are notoriously hot in July. You know it's hot when your temperature is higher than Las Vegas or Phoenix. We still didn't have any record setting numbers, but let's not try for that benchmark.

Severe storms fired up yesterday in North Dakota with reports of tornadoes. Here's one picture from near Adams, ND (which is about 60 miles northwest of Grand Forks). There was even one report of a multi-vortex tornado, but no reports of major damage. Severe weather chances shift farther north in July as the jet stream winds move back toward the US/Canada border.

Our chances for storms will be increasing for the remainder of the week. Unfortunately, it's not a setup where everyone gets rain, but at least we have the possibilities.

Setup Today (Wednesday):

We expect a slow moving front to get into northern Kansas during the evening. The best chances for storms will once again be focused over NW Kansas. Some severe storms may develop early on, but they probably won't stay severe for too long. But if you can get some rain in July, it's usually very welcome considering how hot and dry this month usually is (and has been for some)

Setup Tomorrow:

Slow moving front in the area will keep very isolated storm chances around for another day. They will be fairly spotty, so try not to get your hopes up too high.

Friday: 

Rain chances continue on a hit/miss basis. It looks like highest chances will be focused in central and eastern Kansas. But once again, with no major fronts in the area or large storm systems coming through, the rain won't get to everyone.

Kansas is drying out - will this trend change?

Most of us had some bonus rains earlier this spring, but in the last 45 days, we have certainly started to see a different trend. Almost everyone in Kansas had a surplus on rains in during the month of April:

• Wichita (+4.69")
• Salina (+0.60")
• Dodge City (+5.84")
• Goodland (+0.53")

May rainfall (compared to normal):

• Wichita (-0.13")
• Salina (-0.88")
• Dodge City (+1.77")
• Goodland (+4.71")

June rainfall (compared to normal):

• Wichita (-0.62")
• Salina (-2.42")
• Dodge City (-0.12")
• Goodland (+1.19")

So far in July, nearly everyone has had less than .50", except Dodge City where 1.63" has fallen. The corn is getting ready to pollinate and it's crucial for the temperatures to stay down (including at night), but it just doesn't look like that will happen. 

July look at this map from the last 7 days:

Rainfall has been spotty, but the places that struggle the most getting rain sometimes have had some luck.

Let's look at what happens at the end of this week:

The heat dome pushes back to the west, which may allow for some scattered storms to develop Thursday evening AND maybe into Friday along a slow moving front. It's tough to get overly excited about the rain chances because they will be so hit and miss. But they could be our only chances this week.

But next week (July 17-20), the huge high pressure heat cooker moves right back over the top of Kansas. So the heat will be coming back.

Where things will start getting interesting once again will be at the end of next week (around July 22nd) The models "hint" at some leftover tropical moisture that might make it into the Plains, but that's so far down the road that we just don't even know if that's possible yet. 

Long, hot week - Slight storm chances

This is the part of summer that can be rough on some of us. Temperatures will climb to near 100 and it puts quite the strain on anyone working outside during the afternoon. Air conditioners only seem to turn off for a minute or two at a time, and without much rain, some of you will be watering like crazy to keep up with the heat.

Rain chances are very slim this week, but the first possible chance comes for the NW Tuesday evening. You'll be able to count on one hand how many storms pop up.

Tuesday Evening

Chances look a little better for the NW Wednesday evening. They will still be scattered, but a few areas will get cooled off with an early evening storm that might dump a quick, heavy downpour.

Wednesday evening

We should end up with less heat later in the week. I'll focus on that tomorrow and we will look at some rainfall numbers and see where we stand moving into the middle of July. In the meantime, take it easy and do your best to keep cool.

Major drought - July heat wave expanding

Welcome to Friday and thanks for stopping by the blog. I'm back from a quick trip through the northern Plains (the Dakotas and into Montana) and for the first time ever, a chance to visit Canada. It was a great trip, but the weather was less than desirable. Temperatures were getting into the mid 90s and there is a severe drought underway across North Dakota and eastern Montana. Just look at the latest drought monitor released yesterday (Thursday). People up there are praying for rain. This is usually an active time of year as the jet stream moves back to the north, but so far, most of the rains have been few and far between.

Here are a few of my pictures from the Badlands. Despite the dry conditions, Theodore Roosevelt National Park is still quite beautiful.

Theodore Roosevelt National Park

Badlands - North Dakota

Medora, ND

Alright, so last week I blogged about a changing weather pattern that would bring some hotter weather after the 4th. The pattern is exactly what you would expect in July, as high pressure takes over, our storm chances diminish. Any rain we might get this weekend won't amount to very much.

Next week will be one of the longest stretches of hot weather we've had, and I think there will be several days in a row with some 100s in our state. 

How long will this last?

I'm expecting some brief heat relief next weekend (14-16th) where temperatures may drop a little. I don't think it will be anything big, but highs may slip back to the upper 80s for a day or two.

Week of July 17 -

This particular week looks a little more interesting with a chance for some rain and cooler weather. The high pressure (heat dome) could break down for awhile, allowing for some changes during the later part of July.

Have a nice weekend. Millie will be keeping cool & probably getting another haircut.