Harvey moves on - rain outlook for Kansas

Imagine how excited you'd be to see sunshine after having 50 inches of rain. That was the reality yesterday evening in some parts of Houston as Harvey finally started moving away. It did make another landfall near Cameron, LA early this morning. The report of over 51" at Cedar Bayou is the most rainfall ever recorded for a tropical system in the US. 

Harvey will continue to accelerate to the northeast and should be history by the time we get to Friday. It will dissolve rather quickly, but the impacts will be around for so much longer.

Kansas isn't going to see much rain the next 10-12 days. Forecast models only show a trace of rain through September 10th. So dry areas in Kansas will not see any relief anytime soon. 

Coming up Friday, we will take a closer look into the month of September and see what Mother Nature may have in store.

Updated Harvey rainfall totals - unbelievable stats

As Harvey continues to slowly drift through southeast Texas, dumping more rain, here are some updated rainfall amounts:

• South Houston: 43.00'
• National Weather Service - Houston: 42.11"
• Pasadena: 40.20"
• Houston Hobby Airport: 38.90"
• Baytown: 37.40"
• Bush IAH: 28.33"
• College Station: 15.73"
• Galveston: 14.20"

And, check this out! Three of the top 5 wettest days in Houston have occurred with Harvey since Friday. Records for Houston go back to 1930.

So Harvey will make another landfall (#3) today (Tuesday) and that should be the last one. It will accelerate on to the northeast by Wednesday & Thursday. This will lead to some very heavy rains in Arkansas, but amounts won't even come close to half of what they saw in Texas. 

This storm has been quite devastating and it's safe to say, the name Harvey will be retired after this season. There won't be another tropical system named Harvey given what it has left behind. 

Why isn't Harvey moving?

Our hearts go out to the people in Houston dealing with catastrophic flooding and something never seen before in recorded history. One of the biggest questions I've been asked lately is why isn't the storm moving. And what does it take to get 50" of rain?

First, let's look at some of the radar estimates, and this is only from the last 3 days. 

Why is Harvey stalling?
This tropical system is caught in an area of opposing wind directions in the atmosphere. There's a BIG "H" over Utah with winds blowing clockwise around it. There's also a big "H" just east of the Bahamas. These large high pressure systems are creating a logjam in the atmosphere, so there's no change taking place. This is also why our weather in Kansas won't change at all this week. Nothing's moving right now.

Getting 50 inches of rain needs an unlimited moisture source:
The Gulf of Mexico continues to supply Harvey with unlimited supply of moisture that's getting turned into the heavy rain. That's the source region for our big rain producing storms here in Kansas, but Harvey is hogging the moisture. The wind flow is coming right off the Gulf from the south, so there continues to be an endless supply for this storm.

Will this system reach Kansas?
Still not likely, although one computer model shows it coming as far north as Oklahoma by the time it gets absorbed. If this storm DOES make it this far north, it's going to be getting ripped apart by stronger winds and won't likely have much of an impact here.

Harvey's path is changing

Harvey is going to be a major storm to watch and capturing national attention through the weekend. Not only will this storm stall on the Gulf coast, but there's a chance it may drift north during the middle of next week. So it's still one to watch for Kansas, even though the likelihood it will bring much rain to our state is still pretty low.

Here's the latest rainfall forecast:

And look what happens to this storm next week:
It just won't move through Wednesday!!

Finally, by Wednesday night/early Thursday, the storm begins to move north toward Kansas. However, we still expect most, if not all rain to stay south and southeast of our area. But, with lighter steering winds aloft in summertime, this storm could change path and wobble around awhile longer. Our thoughts are with those who are evacuating and getting hit by this major storm. 

It's all about rain... and some of it moves our way

We are experiencing something really bizarre this week with major flooding hitting major metropolitan areas. Check this out. Monday night after the eclipse, major flooding hit the KC area with some places getting 9-10 inches of rain.

Tuesday night, Oklahoma City was hit with big time rains and had flooding reported on I-35. While the rainfall reports were mostly around 2-3 inches, it did create some problems for several hours. 

And now look what is about to hit in Texas. From Corpus Christi to Houston, there's going to be 10-15" of rain heading into the weekend. That's obviously too much at one time, and so the flooding threat has been raised to the extreme level as a life threatening situation is about to play out along the Gulf Coast. Even if Harvey doesn't become a hurricane (the forecast calls for it to reach hurricane strength soon), this is going to cut some areas off for a bit as roads will likely be washed out or under water. 

Chances for storms heading back to Kansas?

We will have some chances for storms Saturday night across northern Kansas.

Chances will shift south with a cold front by Sunday night. This will likely be our best chance for some rain in the coming days. So fingers are crossed for central Kansas.

The latest drought monitor just came out this morning. There's a big part of central and northern Kansas that continue in "moderate drought". The outlook for rain through the next two weeks isn't that promising. Heavier amounts will likely go north and south of Kansas. Time will tell.

Rain on the horizon, but for who?

All of the eclipse madness is over and it feels like things are getting back to some kind of normal now that school is back in session. I have to tell you though, watching the total eclipse was beyond awesome. I truly enjoyed it and just wanted more time to take it all in. Maybe in 2024.

Alright, so the cooler weather has arrived and the humidity has dropped WAY down. But for those who still want and need rain, that definitely works against our chances. Rain chances will be coming back, but just like we saw back in early August, those possibilities are mainly going to be for western Kansas.

Why doesn't the rain get farther west?
Here's what's going on. There's a high pressure over the upper Midwest with drier air rotating around it. So anytime rain begins to move east, it's going to get swallowed up in that drier air. Biggest rains will likely be in the west. Take a look:

Potential tropical storm/hurricane Harvey:
We have some interest in what's going on down in the Gulf of Mexico because a potential storm of some kind will be developing there soon. Right now, it's not likely to have a major impact on our weather here, but big time rains and flooding is likely. Unless there's some change in the wind pattern (which isn't likely), much of the rain and possible flooding will avoid this area. It should help to keep our temperatures down though.

Updated eclipse forecast... clouds go away!

We've arrived at the weekend and while this will be the hottest one we've had this month, it's not going to be record setting or anything out of the ordinary.

There's a slight chance for a few showers/storms over northern Kansas for Saturday night. It's going to be another case of spotty activity, so the chances that any one area gets rain is small.

Eclipse forecast:
So this is still a very difficult prediction, but clouds are most certainly going to be an issue. And because the "totality" is only about 2 minutes long, making a prediction for that exact moment is really tough. So I'm going to post the data we are looking at and let you see what we're going to be up against.

Here is how to read the maps:
OVC = overcast (could be low clouds or high, thin clouds - which would be somewhat transparent)
BKN = broken (usually mostly cloudy, but with some breaks in the clouds)
SCT = scattered (with some clouds here and some clouds there)
FEW = mostly clear (more clear areas than clouds)
CLR = clear (ideal conditions)

7 a.m. Monday

10 a.m. Monday

1 p.m. Monday

So take a look and decide. Our forecast hasn't changed at all the last 6 days. We've been thinking low clouds to start the day, but they should get out of the way for eclipse viewing (near areas of totality)

I'm going to be broadcasting from Beatrice, NE. We hope that you'll join us if you are not planning a trip to totality. I'm very excited ... we won't see another coast-to-coast total eclipse for almost another 100 years. And I don't plan to be around for that one. Have a great weekend.

More eclipse questions answered

I'm constantly running into people who are planning a trip to the path of totality on Monday (the 21st) to see something that hasn't happened since 1979 (in the US). The last coast-to-coast solar eclipse was back in 1918.

Forecast update:
We are still anticipating clouds to be a factor Monday, but we might get lucky in the fact that the clouds we DO have will be see through. I don't think we will have to worry about rain, and if we have low clouds around in the morning, they should part in time for the start of the partial eclipse.

What will the weather do during the eclipse?
This is a great question and honestly, I've never been through one OR studied conditions during a total eclipse. However, given that the sun is covered (even if just briefly), we should note a drop in temperatures. By how much is something we will try and measure Monday in Nebraska. I think it will go down 10-15°, but by the time the temperature begins dropping, totality will likely be ending. The wind is also supposed to pick up a bit, but we are already forecasting some gusty winds, so we may not notice much change.

Viewing the eclipse safely:
As you are already aware of -

• don't look directly at the sun unless you have the special glasses or a welding helmet that's approved for such thing. Even just the quickest glance can cause permanent damage. 
• It is safe to look at the sun during totality (anything less than 100% it is not safe), but remember, that only lasts for a few minutes. 
• If you have binoculars, you can look at the sun when it's fully covered. You should be able to see some interesting parts of the sun's corona, which is what you'll see surrounding the edge of the moon as it covers the sun. 
• You can also take a colander and let the light shine through the tiny holes, and look for the crescent suns shining on a piece of paper.

Many of you have been asking about glasses to watch the eclipse. Most places that have been selling them are OUT! Yes... it's a popular event and I think finding glasses this close to the event will be difficult, but keep your eyes open.

Solar eclipse frequently asked questions

We are less than one week from the eclipse and some of you have questions about timing, what to expect, and how to view it. So most of this week, I'll continue to focus on the upcoming celestial event and try to help you get ready for the big day.

What will the weather be like? 
This is probably the biggest deal now. We are currently thinking that clouds might be around for the morning around KC and northeast Kansas, but they should get out of the way even before the partial eclipse begins. So take a look at the map. I think we may have some high clouds pushing overhead, but we can deal with that. Those high clouds are usually thin enough we can see through them. Most of Kansas should be in good shape to see everything from start to end.

When does it start:
The event will start on the West Coast and will travel all the way to the East Coast.
Partial begins: 11:38 a.m. (Central Time) - moon begins to move into view
Max eclipse (around Wichita and surrounding areas): 1:04 p.m. (lasting just a few minutes)
Eclipse is completely over: 2:32 p.m.

What percentage of the sun will be covered for where I live:
Wichita: 93%
Dodge City: 93%
Hays: 94%
Goodland: 93%
Salina: 95%

Will I see stars come out?
If you are traveling to be in totality, then the answer to this is yes! You should see Venus to the right of the eclipsed sun, and Jupiter off to the left, but it will be near the horizon. Other stars might be visible, but only the brighter ones will probably show up.

Tomorrow, we will talk about what happens with the weather during the eclipse, viewing safely, and other interesting stats. 

Rainfall reports AND a weekend meteor shower

24 Hour rainfall amounts:
Liberal: 5.12"
Winfield: 1.32"
Garden City: 0.81"
Dodge City: 0.53"
Pratt: 0.43"
Goodland: 0.39"
Great Bend: 0.38"
Wichita: 0.28"
Elkhart: 0.17"
Hays: 0.10"

It's been a very long time since we've seen major hail damage like we saw yesterday in WaKeeney. The very large hail (tennis to baseball size) driven by winds of 65-70 mph does amazing things. And even though there were tornado warnings, I didn't see anything confirmed near Cedar Bluff Reservoir. However, any tornado that might have been occurring would've been completely wrapped in rain - near impossible to see.

courtesy Emily Yanda - WaKeeney

In all of the eclipse coverage lately, you may have overlooked the upcoming meteor shower for the weekend. That's right, the Perseids will be peaking Saturday night/Sunday morning. It's one of the better known meteor showers, but the problem for Kansas - clouds and possible rain. The other trouble (not just for Kansas) - the moon. It will still be bright enough it could wash out some of the more faint meteors later in the night.

So here's what you need to know if you are planning to go out in search of the shooting stars.

Weekend storm chance update:

Saturday has a chance for spotty showers/storms during the day, but there should be several dry hours. So it should not be an all day rain. And there's another chance we will see some developing storms and rain coming into the area Saturday night. I don't expect these storms will be severe.

Sunday looks mainly dry - but we will have to watch for some additional rain/storms Sunday night. Have a great weekend. 

Strong storms today - weekend rain chances adjusted

Strong storms are expected today for mainly western Kansas. We issued a Weather Alert Day for this setup because I think you'll see some fairly strong winds with some of the storms. I've highlighted the area that will mostly likely see the strongest storms. Wind gusts to 60 mph look to be the biggest concern, but some spotty reports of hail are also expected.

Most of Friday looks dry, and we've pushed the rain chances back some this weekend. It's looking more likely that we will have some rain on Saturday, and it could be off and on throughout much of the day. I wouldn't be surprised to have rain in the morning, with more storms redeveloping in the late afternoon. Although severe weather isn't likely, some pockets of heavy downpours will move across the area.

Coming up tomorrow on the blog... update on the eclipse forecast. It's coming into better focus as we get closer.

Severe weather chance & an early eclipse forecast

If you count the rain showers we will see today in Kansas, we have at least 3 more rounds of rain that will impact our state this week. It's still badly needed in several areas. We've spent a great deal of time talking about the rainfall deficit for Salina (6" below normal), but that's because we don't have much of a database for other towns in our state. But it clearly represents the dry areas in central Kansas.

The rainfall we get today isn't going to add up to very much. But that's because we don't have much of a front or low pressure system in the area. That comes tomorrow (Thursday). The cloudy, cool, damp day in central and eastern Kansas will keep most areas in the 70s, which is quite comfortable by August standards.

Chance for severe storms Thursday!
We should get some sun to return tomorrow (Thursday) ahead of the next cold front, our temperatures still won't be back to normal. There's a fairly strong cold front that will be pushing through the area, so I think you'll see a decent round of rain moving from northwest to southeast Thursday evening.

 AND... it could repeat again heading into Friday night. The one concern I have is that with much cooler temperatures, will the air still hold enough humidity to allow the rain to make it from one side of the state to the next. I'm fairly confident it will, but let's continue to watch the next few model runs. The rainfall forecast posted below is through Saturday afternoon. And the heaviest should end up across the west and some parts of southern Kansas.

Early eclipse forecast:
It's not looking very promising for the weather during the eclipse. Early model forecasts show some rain possible in Nebraska with clouds elsewhere along totality. We will continue to look at this with each passing model update, but early signs might be a bit frustrating to you if you're planning a trip to see the celestial event.

Cool & wet week ahead for Kansas

Welcome to another weird week of weather in Kansas this week. Some of you had nice rains over the weekend with 2 and 3 inch amounts reported in spots. It was unfortunate to see the EF2 tornado damage in Tulsa, but just glad that no lives were lost in the storm.

Rainfall from the weekend

For lack of better description, there is basically a fire hose of rain makers pointed right at Kansas this week. These systems are lined up over the Rockies and will be pushing out through the Plains. Most of the rain will get dumped over western Kansas, but there are a couple of time periods in particular that offer up chances farther east. 

Through Tuesday afternoon:

About 98% of the rain will fall west of a Hays to Dodge City line. 

Wednesday - best chance for rain to move farther east:

Our FutureTrack shows scattered rain and storms getting to central Kansas. The best we can hope for might be a 1/2", but we have to take anything we can get (I don't think we will see any big rains)

More chances coming late in the week:

We could be in for more rain Friday/Saturday. The setup won't change much, so scattered rain and storms will push from west to east and almost all of Kansas will have chances. 

Weekend rain setup & more 70s next week!

It was just 2 months ago that we needed the rain to pause for a moment so the wheat harvest could begin on time. And now, we need to turn the faucet back on for so many areas.

Salina is more than 5 inches below normal on precipitation since June 1st. So it's going to take some serious rainfall to make up that deficit, but hopefully it doesn't all come at once.

Weekend Setup:

Couple of things going on this weekend. We have a system pushing out of the Rockies Friday night-Saturday that should start the rain making machine once again. It will start in western Kansas late Friday night and then push east Saturday. Rain and storms could be off and on Saturday, but where will the heaviest setup? That's the tricky part. Confidence is growing that most of the heavier rains will go to the Flint Hills and east. Southeast Kansas will get some good rains, but if you are west of 135, you'll probably have to settle for .50 or less. But, that's more than some of us have had in quite some time.

Sunday: Most of the rain will be east of Kansas by then. 

Why are we getting such cool weather for August?

It's all about the pattern and where that "heat dome" decides to position itself. Just look at these incredible high temperatures from yesterday (Thursday):

• 105° Vancouver (Canada)
• 104° Fresno, CA
• 103° Portland, OR
• 103° Yakima, WA

That's the kind of stuff we expect in Kansas, not in the Pacific Northwest. So our steering winds aloft (call the jet stream) continue to come down from Canada, we get the benefit of having a cool August. Doesn't happen every year, but this time around, we are getting to enjoy some beautiful weather.

Next Week:
The pattern favors more 70 degree weather with chances for spotty rains across western Kansas and into Colorado. I have to say, the chances for rain in central and eastern Kansas DO NOT look promising at all. So you're going to see some big changes to the 7 day forecast on the air later today. Have a great weekend. I know this rain setup is frustrating, but once again, some of us just aren't in the right spot right now.