Our first chances for snow - more wild changes

Our first chances for snow show up in Kansas for Halloween. This is something we've been watching since last Wednesday, and now it looks like some areas of the state will get moisture Tuesday. This is not a big storm, so it's very unlikely that we will get much more than some flurries or sprinkles.

Our Future Track has a batch of light snow showers in western Kansas for Halloween, but as it moves east, we should see some rain drops mixing in.

It will be rather chilly too, so don't expect to get much warmer than 30s and low 40s. 

We have more big temperature swings coming. The next cold front will get to Kansas Thursday, and then there's another one coming Sunday. Our chances for moisture don't look too promising heading into early November. We will go into more details on the November outlook coming up Wednesday. And don't forget, the winter forecast comes out in November too. 

Freezing temperatures & another blast for Halloween

Hello winter... nearly 2 months early. This is such big change that even though we've been talking about it for over a week, most of us just aren't ready.

Those that didn't have a hard freeze today (Friday morning) should have one Saturday morning. At least the wind will go down for Saturday, so if you have some outdoor plans, it's going to be a pretty nice fall day.

Sunday looks even warmer, but another cold front is coming Sunday night, which will send us more cold air early next week.

I think it will be colder than our forecast has been advertising the last few days. Take a look at what computer models are hinting at for Monday and Tuesday.

There have been a lot of changes going on at KWCH, but we are still working on a winter forecast that will come out in November. However, early next week, we will take a look at what might be on the way for the month of November. You might recall two years ago we had an ice storm for Thanksgiving. Hopefully that won't happen again, but we will dig into the data and see what lies ahead.

Here we go... TWO major fronts on the way

It's that time of year when you start talking about colder weather that you find some who are excited for the change... and everyone else starts grumbling. The flood gates to Canada are opening up and COLD weather is about to spill south.

Temperatures at 1 p.m. today will be a mix of 20s and 30s, and that air is expected to start moving south later today. Without snow on the ground between Kansas and Canada, the air will warm some before reaching us, but we are still on track to have a big drop AND a hard freeze statewide.

Morning low temperatures Friday morning will go below freezing in the west. 

Saturday morning looks to have below freezing temperatures statewide.

And for Halloween this year... more cold air is coming. A front will arrive early Monday, and temperatures will drop quickly. Highs will mostly likely end up in the upper 40s on Halloween, and for trick-or-treat time, readings will be down around 40. It will be dry though.

Wild swings in weather - colder air coming

This week will be full of big swings in temperatures, and a possible hard freeze late in the week. We will see how the models trend in the coming days, but the chilly days will likely outnumber the warm ones.

First batch of colder air:
Tuesday! We will see wind chills Tuesday morning down in the 20s and 30s. It's going to be windy overnight and into Tuesday, so be ready.

Wednesday - warmer! Highs will likely recover to the 70s for midweek.

2nd batch of cold air: Thursday/Friday:
This is the coldest so far this fall. While we know temperatures will be well below normal, will we see a hard freeze? In order to get there, lows need to fall into the 20s for 3 or 4 hours. Saturday morning (right now) has the best chance of a hard freeze. Forecast models are showing some low 30s, but there's a chance it could go a bit colder. And actually, a hard freeze would be right on schedule if it happens this weekend.

We have some very exciting changes coming to KWCH. Be looking for them this week on air. It's a project that has been in the works for more than 6 months, and we are looking forward to the reveal. 

Winter outlooks, weekend storms, & meteor shower

Good morning and happy Friday. Winter outlooks are popping up all over the place and that is probably the #2 weather question I'm getting these days, what is the winter going to be like? (The most asked question is about Millie)

I don't put much value in NOAA's winter outlook. I don't want to go into why, but if the topic didn't come up in our newsroom, I wouldn't even bother to look at them. We still don't know what kind of winter we will have just yet, but some clues are showing up. I am planning to post a winter outlook in mid November when we have some better ideas.

Here's a quick rundown for Saturday:

• Cold front develops storms shortly after 2 p.m., but these will likely not be severe
• Storms will multiply and form into a line as they continue east. By 4-5 p.m., most of the storms will be pushing into eastern Kansas. 
• Best severe chances will be southeast of the Turnpike
• Main threat will be wind gusts 60-65 mph. Hail size is likely going to be smaller than 1"

Next week:

We are about to have a rapid series of cold fronts coming our way. Wild swings in temperatures look more and more likely with each set of model data coming in. It's also looking dry for next week and all the way through the end of the month, chances for rain (or snow) remain very very low.

Meteor Shower This Weekend:
It's not one of the better showers, but we will have clear skies into Sunday morning, which is when the Orionid Meteor shower will peak. A heavy sweatshirt or coat may come in handy if you are heading out to look.

Another weekend storm & pattern shift next week

Firefighters in northern California are about to get even more help from Mother Nature with rain and snow chances increasing Friday. FINALLY, the weather pattern begins to change as a storm comes crashing into the west coast. It won't be a ton of rain, but every little bit can help slow the fires.

The storm system will create a TON of wind by Friday. Winds will easily climb above 20 with gusts over 40 likely. And the humidity will be coming up very quickly Friday afternoon.

Get ready for some rain on Saturday. This is such a fast moving system that it won't produce a ton of precipitation, but areas southeast of the Turnpike will likely get .50-1"

A big push of chilly/cool fall air will be arriving. There's going to be a large bend in the weather pattern that will deliver a change in airmass - one that will send us back below normal for a few days. Right now, it's unlikely to bring any precipitation to our area.

Fires from space & next active day for Kansas

Welcome to Monday and the halfway point of October... already. After an active weekend of weather for parts of Kansas, the weather settles down the next 3-4 days. In fact, we may not see any clouds whatsoever until Thursday at the earliest. 

California Fires:

The massive fires burning in California have been so large that for the past week or so, the smoke plumes have been visible from space. The new satellite that was launched last November (GOES-R) has the capability of monitoring an area with 30 second to 1 minute images. So we are getting high resolution pictures of the smoke plumes from space. Here's an example of one from yesterday afternoon. One of the biggest fires still burning is the Tubbs fire, now 60% contained.

Northern California has a CHANCE for some rain later this week. A fairly large storm system will be impacting the west coast. Rain chances will ramp up a bit Friday, but the amounts will likely be under .50" They don't need a ton of rain, as it would lead to mudslides, but this will hopefully help firefighters take control.

Next stormy weather for Kansas:

The same storm that hits California Friday becomes one to watch for Kansas next weekend. A cold front will be coming back across Kansas Saturday, which should be our next chance for rain and storms. It's a little early to nail down exact timing and how much, but this will be the next bit of active weather for the Plains. 

Weekend storm chance - looking ahead to late October

We are still on track to get some rain and storms for the first part of the weekend. And while there is a severe weather risk for some areas, it should be somewhat limited. 

Rain chance Saturday morning:

Showers will be scattered to start the day, with best chances from southwest to central Kansas, all the way into northeast Kansas. If you are tailgating at a football game, might want to have some rain gear handy.

Storms Saturday afternoon:

Chances for thunderstorms will be increasing during the afternoon. While a few could be strong-severe (winds over 58 mph), many will be below a severe threshold. Watch for some quick heavy downpours and lightning, but the chance for widespread severe storms is low. The timing - most storms will develop after 3 p.m., and move to the east once they get going.

Looking ahead to the second half of October: WARM!

Back at the beginning of the month, all signs were pointing toward a warmer than normal month. So far, that is holding up well. And we have several more mild-warm days coming up. That doesn't mean hot or record breaking heat, but it does mean more 70 to near 80 degree weather should be on the way. I am expecting another brief cool down next weekend (October 21-23), but it doesn't look like anything major. There should be at least two more chances for rain between now and the end of the month (not counting this weekend) - but it's unlikely we will get as much rain in the second half of the month as we did at the beginning of October.

It may be October, but look at what's coming to KS...

Another chance for severe storms. Yes, after some very cool weather this week, we are starting to focus on a chance for strong to severe storms that will impact the area this weekend.

Much warmer weather is going to be with us heading into the weekend. In fact, we have a chance to see some 80s Thursday and Friday. But Friday will be another interesting day as a cold front pushes into the area. So look at the variety of temperatures from one side of the state to the next. There could be a 25-30° around the area.

Saturday has a chance for a few showers early in the day, but strong storms wouldn't come until early evening. The biggest threat will be damaging wind gusts of 60 mph+ after 6 p.m., so if you are planning to travel the Kansas Turnpike, be prepared for some strong storms Saturday evening.

Behind the front, we get more, very cool fall air on Sunday. Highs will be in the low 60s. And some frost may develop in northern Kansas early Monday (Oct. 16).

Updates to come later this week.

Big time change underway - snow in Kansas

Talking freeze, thunderstorms, and some snow in Kansas to kick off the new week. I've already heard some people grumbling about the colder weather, but this is a season of change and that's what we will see throughout the week.

Thunderstorm chance today:
As the chilly air takes over, some storms are going to develop from Wichita off to the east. Some hail and wind is possible, but I don't expect a great deal of severe weather. Storms will move east/northeast once they develop.

Chance of snow:
It's not unheard of to have snow in Kansas in October, but it's definitely not something that happens every year. This storm system is already producing snow in Denver and caused flight delays and cancellations. A dusting of snow is likely in northwest Kansas, but mainly on grassy areas. The ground is still way too warm and will melt some of the falling snow. But Goodland averages just under 1" for October.

Concerns for frost/freeze:
So the growing season will likely end in the northwest too. Lows will drop to the upper 20s and low 30s by Tuesday morning, and by Wednesday morning, those 30s spread east. Gardeners should be prepared to protect a few plants if you want them to last a little longer into October. We are in for some very chilly temperatures the next couple of days.

We predicted a slightly warmer than normal October, and temperatures will quickly rebound later in the week. Get ready for a wild ride in weather this week.

Severe & flooding threat today - big change next week

We are on the lookout for severe storms in Kansas yet again today. This has been a stormy week for many, and we even had a couple of tornadoes earlier in the week that received an EF1 rating. It's unlikely we will have tornadoes tonight given the setup, but strong winds over 60 mph look possible and flooding rains threaten areas in central and northern Kansas late into the evening.

First, the areas most likely to have some strong winds:

Very early on, we could have some larger hail too, but this setup looks like a wind event for central and southwest Kansas. As the storms push south, they will gradually weaken after 11 p.m. tonight.

Timing:
Storms begin after 5 p.m. in central and western Kansas.

Should arrive into the Hutch/Wichita areas after 10 p.m.

The weekend should be really nice with low humidity & seasonal temperatures

Next week, a STRONG cold front will push through early Monday, sending temperatures well below normal. Western Kansas won't get out of the 50s Monday afternoon. And the threat of frost is looming for some Tuesday morning across the northwest. That would be right on schedule for the northwest, but way too early for any other part of the state. Tuesday looks quite cool statewide with highs in the upper 50s to near 60. I don't thing anyone else will have frost beyond Tuesday morning.

Have a great weekend.

Three rounds of wet weather - then frost?

Today's rain is just round #1 of what will likely be 3 before the end of this week. And the timing is just about perfect after the nice, soaking event we had last week. This is what some areas in central Kansas need after having so much dry weather earlier this summer.

So here's the setup for today, and then we will look at what comes next:

Yesterdays cold front has stalled and will continue to trigger more scattered rains across the area. There should be a break coming later today (Wednesday) and into Wednesday night.

2nd Round:

Thursdays storms will be more scattered, so not everyone's going to get rain in the 2nd go around. But best chances come in the afternoon and later in the evening. 

3rd Round:

The last batch of rain coming before the weekend will arrive Friday afternoon/night. This is with a cold front coming from the northwest, and will eventually shove the rain east by the weekend. Most of Kansas should get some rain in the 3rd batch of moisture. 

Chilly Air is Coming!! Possible frost

Our first big surge of chilly air arrives on Monday and will be around for the first half of the week. Take a look at the forecast highs by one of our computer models. Even with sunshine, we may not climb out of the 50s for highs. And northern Kansas has a possibility of some frost by Tuesday morning. I'll be highlighting this on the air as we get closer in time, but considering the average first frost for northwest Kansas is in the first half of October, it's really not that out of the ordinary. 

We will be warming back up though. Just behind that big surge of chilly air comes milder weather by the second half of next week.