August outlook - will the cool continue?

The month of July ends on a strange note with such cool temperatures. Most of the state ended up with highs in the 70s yesterday, which is usually our low temperatures in late July. And today won't get much warmer than the low 80s.

Average temperature map for July 218 - Several areas cooler than normal (and some hotter - in orange and red)

I mentioned a couple weeks ago that the hottest part of the summer is likely over with for this area. And I still believe that to be the case. It's unlikely that any major heat wave will set in across the Plains, but we still have a decent amount of summer weather yet to go and there will be days we get close to 100.

Here's what I'm looking at for early August:

After a cool end to July, we are headed for warming temperatures the next few weeks. I expect the first two weeks of August to have near normal temperatures (mainly 90s)

As we get into the middle of the month, there are signs of some cooler weather that will show up once again over the central and northern Plains, while the west may very well heat up again.

And the second half of August may turn off cooler than normal (which would mean more 80s rather than 90s) I don't this the cool weather will be quite as widespread as you see below, but our area should be cooling down.

Precipitation: Not looking good for Kansas. From what I can tell, precipitation will be few and far between through the first half of August. The areas that are in desperate need (like eastern Kansas) will continue to be dry. Sometimes we get some good rains in August, but this year could be a real struggle. Almost all of the data I've looked at lately suggests that dry conditions will be common for the upcoming month. Maybe conditions will turn later in August, but the beginning of the month is dry. (click on the images below to make them larger) - they show % of normal rainfall (red and white colors are not good)

Rainfall totals & a bit more rain today

Good Monday morning. So the rain (like normal) has been really, really frustrating lately. Some are getting a bunch and as you travel east, the amounts drop off. And where we've had some heavy rain, it's really spotty. Western Kansas had some more big rain this weekend.

We still have off and on chances today (mainly for central and eastern Kansas). The rain that develops throughout the day will have a tendency to move south. Here are a couple of snapshots from our Future Track. Some pockets of heavy rainfall are possible throughout the day, especially east of a Hays to Pratt line.

So here's a map showing the last 7 days of rainfall:

And here are the numbers (through 7 a.m. today) for areas around the state:

Garden City: 7"
Liberal: 3.95"
Elkhart: 2.10"
Dodge City: 1.94"
Hutch: 1.79"
Medicine Lodge: 1.77"
Russell: 1.73"
Hays: 1.68"
Hill City: 1.68"
Pratt: 1.21"
Wichita: 1.17"
Winfield: 0.79"
Goodland: 0.29"
Concordia: 0.11"
Salina: 0.11"

Coming up in tomorrow's blog, I'll talk about what I think is ahead for August. Have a great week.

When was the last time we saw this?

When was the last time you saw western Kansas nearly free of drought conditions, while central and eastern Kansas continues to suffer a major lack of rain?

It's been a weird summer in the fact that rainfall has been really spotty. Some areas are getting dumped on while others, getting missed entirely. Here's the latest drought map (which only takes into account rainfall through Tuesday morning):

Next round:
We are still on track to see the next round of rain move in late Friday night. It will likely be well after 10 p.m. before the heavier stuff settles into our area, and there will be some rain around Saturday morning.

3rd Round:
This could be moving our way Saturday night/early Sunday. And the temperatures that we are looking at for the next week are going to be just outstanding. We even have lower humidity coming by Sunday and Monday.

24 Hr Rainfall totals (from Wed-7 A.M. Thu)
Belleville: 3.16"
Garden City: 1.81"
Enterprise: 1.31"
Hays: 1.05"
Dodge City: 0.93"
Russell: 0.84"
Liberal: 0.56"
Elkhart: 0.50"
Med. Lodge: 0.27"
Pratt: 0.21"
Great Bend: 0.14"
Jabara Airport: 0.11"
Hill City: 0.11"
Newton: 0.07"
Hutch: 0.05"
Wichita: 0.03"
Salina: 0.02"

Stormy days are just ahead

We are getting close to a stormy stretch across the Plains, while the western US continues to bake. Look what happened in Waco, TX yesterday (Monday) setting an all-time record high. The temperature reach 114°!

The pattern is setting up to favor several rounds of storms that will develop on the high Plains of Colorado and Nebraska and then roll to the southeast.

Best Rain Chances for Kansas:

• Wednesday evening/night (especially across central and northern Kansas)
• Friday night-early Saturday
• Saturday night-early Sunday

So by the time we reach the end of the weekend, several areas should have picked up 1-2.5" of rain. Disclaimer: when it comes to thunderstorms, some areas could easily get more. However, it is difficult to narrow down those areas right now. 

Please be patient. I know we still have many areas that are waiting on the moisture. Since it will come in many rounds, please give Mother Nature a chance to deliver. 

And cooler weather is on the way too. We have many days ahead with highs only expected to reach the 80s and the humidity will drop too. You will likely notice that on Friday, and again late in the weekend. Bring it on, right?

Cooler weather & a stormy setup for Kansas

Late July and early August are the "dog days of summer", which comes from ancient times when a certain star would align during the hottest periods of the year. And late July can be notorious for having long stretches of triple digit temperatures.

However... this year, we are going to be treated to a long stretch of tolerable temperatures and even some rain too. And this is isn't just for a few days. We could see some nice weather taking us through most of August too. The normal high of 93 will start dropping here in the next couple of weeks as we turn the corner toward fall (summer goes by so fast anymore)

The warmest day of the week is looking like Wednesday when the temperature map should look similar to this:

But late in the week, we will notice a fairly substantial drop in the temperatures, with more 80s for Thursday, Friday, and the upcoming weekend.

Very active weather is looking to setup for the second half of the week. Several rounds of storms (with heavy rainfall) will be pushing through beginning Wednesday evening and lasting through Saturday evening. And when it's over, some widespread 1-3" look likely. We don't know exactly where the heaviest will be yet, but rain chances are solid.

Temperatures & Rain: Early August

We have some pretty good chances of easing the drought even more in some places. Early August is looking stormy with more chances for moisture, especially across central and southern Kansas. And temperatures will be cooler than normal across a large swath of the central and northern Plains. We could squeeze out many days with highs in the 80s to kick off the month. It won't be that way all month long, but I also don't see any major heat waves developing in August. 

A stretch of milder weather for Kansas

Thanks for spending a few minutes here reading the blog. It's sometimes easier to go deeper into the forecast than what's allowed on TV.

It's going to be pretty rough out there today with the heat and humidity. But just be thinking about the weather that is coming soon and it may help get you through. I think you'll like the forecast for next week. We are still on track to have cooler than normal weather settling across the central Plains and the Midwest. And more rain will be coming soon.

There should once again be a swath across central and western Kansas that will have several rounds of late night and early morning rains. In the map below, you can see that a pretty good chunk of Kansas and surrounding areas will have above normal rains (which could easily be some 1-3" amounts in areas)

And the milder weather will keep pushing south. Just look how much of the central and northern Plains, the upper Midwest will be getting the cooler weather.

It's not just next week, but signs seem to point toward getting some milder weather into early August as well. I would be expecting more 80s and low 90s rather than any long stretches of major heat. In fact, we may very well be in for a nice August around here. I'll be posting details on that soon.

Just a bit more rain, then a change

In the last couple of weeks, it sure seems like you're either getting a bunch of rain, or none at all. Some extra runoff isn't such a bad thing if you're trying to fill farm ponds or hoping lake levels will rise. There are still so many areas of the state that are bone dry.

Here's a map showing rainfall amounts from the last 14 days. (click on it to make it larger)

Notice eastern Kansas and the Flint Hills. That area of the state is in terrible shape right now. My sister sent me a picture from eastern Kansas (near Ottawa) and the grass would lead you to believe it's the middle of winter. An area of the state that normally gets good, soaking rains is dealing with serious drought.

We are still in a position to get more rain tonight - through Wednesday afternoon. Once again, some of the rain will be heavy in spots.

The pattern will shift a bit, so Thursday/Friday should mainly be dry.

The weather pattern will favor near to slightly cooler than normal temperatures for the weekend and much of next week. My last blog update over the weekend talked about a possibility that the hottest stretches of summer may be behind us. Next week doesn't look half bad when you consider how hot late July can be in Kansas. There's no sign of any major heat waves coming our way anytime soon.

Is the hottest part of summer over?

Have we experienced the hottest part of summer?
If you look strictly at the averages, one might answer that with "no". But I'm seeing signs that we may be past the hottest temperatures we will see for the rest of summer.

Here's what is taking place. There are different connections taking place between the ocean and the atmosphere that can give us some insight as to what will happen next with our weather. One of the connections we are looking at suggest we are moving into a phase 5/6 of the Madden Julian oscillation (no, it has nothing to do with football) and that particular phase would favor a cooling spell for our area of the US. See the map below. It actually means much of the central Plains, the upper Midwest, and areas east of the Mississippi would have cooler than normal weather.

And that is matching up with what we are seeing on some of the extended models too. Take a look at this forecast for the end of July.

Even going into early August, there's a good chance we will escape any chance of a major, prolonged heat wave.

I wouldn't start looking for sweatshirts and heavy coats, but I do think that the hottest part of summer may very well be behind us. Time will tell.

Pattern may shift soon

Happy Friday the 13th. It's great to be back from vacation, although where I was vacationing had highs in the 50s. It was like having outdoor air conditioning and getting me ready for fall. But now, it's back to reality and realizing that fall is still two months away.

This will be a hot weekend around Kansas with most of us seeing more highs in the 90s (and that's WITH a front hanging over the area) Storm chances will be around this weekend, but it's going to be on a very limited scale. We are talking one storm here and one there, but given the right conditions, if you're caught under one of the storms, you will probably get dumped on. And of course temperatures will drop in and around some of the storms.

I'm expecting the pattern will shift for next week. What that means is the "H" (high pressure) that's been parked over the Plains will move back to the west. This happened a few weeks ago and temperatures dropped, which is what I expect will happen next week. It's not a major drop, but we stand a chance of seeing some 80° highs. As that happens, rain chances will pick up too.

Let's keep an eye on Monday and Tuesday. We could be looking at a setup where storms form in eastern Colorado and Wyoming, then roll to the southeast. This kind of setup would favor nighttime storms and maybe some strong wind gusts too. We'll see. But it's encouraging to be in the middle of July and not looking at a major heat wave.

Huge rains & a peek later into July

The amount of rainfall in northwest Kansas is higher than most areas in eastern Kansas. It's nearly unheard of when you think about it. Western Kansas typically sees about 20 inches of rain during the year, while around south central and eastern Kansas, the average rainfall is closer to 30 inches. You can see in the map below what average rainfall looks like across our state.

Some heat relief coming!!

Check this out. By Friday, most of Kansas will be getting highs in the 80s (and maybe cooler) if the clouds and scattered storms hang around.

How is the rest of July shaping up?

There's no sign of any dramatic shifts coming in the weather pattern. The ol' high pressure dome is going to be wobbling back and forth from week to week. Later this week, it's going to shift back to the west, allowing temperatures to drop some. 

Next week (week of July 9), we will likely see our heat intensify and much of the area will be back into the upper 90s and around 100.

Late in July, I think there is some hope that the heat will ease up on the central Plains. Now when I say that, I would think we will see more highs in the upper 80s and low 90s (basically near normal). And rain chances could increase late in the month too. 

Longer range predictions are hinting at some active weather (with increased rain chances) settling back across the area. These won't be drought ending rains for most, but at least we have something to set our sights on for the areas still in desperate need of moisture. 

Thanks for spending a few minutes checking out the blog. I'll be out of the office for awhile, but I'll be back to update things later next week (around July 12).