Weekend storm update

Good Friday morning. Just a quick update on our weekend storm as it pushes into our area to begin the weekend. We are just one week off of a blizzard in Kansas and it's another close call on one for the Plains.

This is a very impressive storm that will have thunderstorms, some severe weather, and a HUGE dumping of snow for Nebraska. Kansas may actually get off pretty fortunate from this storm.

Tonight-early Saturday:

Thunderstorms are expected to skirt across central and eastern Kansas. While these are NOT likely to be anything more than some thunder and lightning, small hail is possible. Rain amounts will easily top .50" for many areas, and some of you could end up closer to 1". Those amounts are forecast for areas basically east of a line from Russell to Great Bend to Medicine Lodge. 

Weekend Snow:

There will be a tremendous amount of snow in Nebraska this weekend. A foot (or more) of snow will fall just north of us. And with winds gusting to 35 mph, could be some difficult or impossible travel weather. Northern Kansas will get some snow too. In most cases, it will be a few inches, but locally higher along the Nebraska/Kansas line. 

Monday Snow Chance:

This isn't anything we need to worry about. It's looking like cloudy skies, a few areas of snow flurries, and VERY cold air. Highs will likely be stuck in the 20s on Monday. Our first full week of December looks COLD.

Have a great weekend. Be safe out there.

How much rain, snow, & cold will we see

Thanks for stopping by and spending a few minutes reading the blog. Just trying to keep you ahead of what's arriving heading into the weekend. As we've been saying throughout the week, a storm arriving from the west will be here to start the weekend.

Friday night-early Saturday:
Widespread rain showers will set in as get closer to sunset Friday. Showers will continue through the night and some of it may still be around early Saturday. Chances for snow will be VERY limited to the far northwest part of Kansas and even then, it looks like a rain/snow mix.

Amounts will likely range from .50-.75", especially for areas of central and eastern Kansas. Farther west, the amounts will drop off quickly.

Into Sunday:
The backside of our weekend storm will produce some snow. Most of it will be in Nebraska where over a foot of snow is likely. Travel in this area over the weekend is discouraged because blowing snow will create BIG issues.

Northern Kansas should see a couple inches, likely Sunday morning and afternoon.

Monday snow chances:

Much of Kansas will see some light snow or flurries Monday. It shouldn't amount to very much, but a few areas could get an inch of snow. We are still watching the data and trying to pin down how much moisture will be rotating around the storm, but it's unlikely to amount to very much.

Cold air keeps coming:

Our first week of December looks COLD!! Most of the week will have highs in the 20s and 30s, so get ready. We are going to be stuck in the grips of below normal temperatures all the way up to about the 10th of December before any significant changes show up.

Watching another storm - what will happen into early December

The weather is calming a bit in the wake of our weekend blizzard. You could say November blizzards are rare for Kansas. They would be more common during the months of December - March, but not necessarily November. And blizzards are more common for western Kansas, but it usually depends on where the storm reaches its peak magnitude.

Check out these stats we shared last night on the air:

Watching the next storm:
The weather looks rather uneventful for the next 3-4 days, but another storm is taking aim at the Plains by the end of the week. And it's going to be a very LARGE storm. It's forecast to be on the west coast Thursday.

Just look at how much real estate it could cover by Saturday. You're talking about rain stretching from the Gulf, turning to snow in the northern Rockies and the high plains of Nebraska and Dakotas.

Early December: COLD COLD COLD
This storm sets us up for a return to cold weather in our first week of December. So get ready for another long stretch of colder than normal weather next week. We will have several days next week where highs don't climb out of the mid 30s. Although there might be a few chances for flurries, it's unlikely that we will have a big storm hit Kansas in our first week of December.

Winter storm update

Hope you had a terrific Thanksgiving and didn't overdo it too much on the food. Sometimes, it's hard to put the fork down.

Here's the very latest on the storm arriving Sunday. The active weather on the west coast is what will be moving into the Rockies by Saturday, and then on the Plains by the time we wake up Sunday.

What time will it start?

We are thinking a rain snow mix for northwest Kansas after midnight Saturday night, but within hours, it should transition to all snow. It won't take long for this to spread down I-70 and certainly by 7 a.m. Sunday, we have snow covering much of central and northern Kansas.

By Sunday early afternoon, the snow will be accelerating to the east. This is a fast moving storm, so snow will be in south central Kansas by late morning and into eastern Kansas by 1 or 2 p.m.

How much snow and how confident are we?

The last few days, the computer models have been very consistent on where the heaviest will likely go. If anything, we've seen a slight increase in the possible amounts. But I'm still favoring central and northern Kansas to get the most, which will likely be some 2-4" amounts (perhaps locally higher in a few spots), but given the fact the storm is moving fast, that should keep us from major snowfall.

How bad will the conditions be?

The wind isn't going to do us any favors here. Gusts will likely be over 30 mph, which creates concern for blowing snow and drifting too. There will be at least a few hours Sunday morning where visibility isn't going to be any good, but conditions will rapidly improve once we get into the afternoon.

Please have a safe weekend especially if getting out on the highways.

Tracking two storms just beyond Thanksgiving

I know many of you are looking for solid information as we try to nail down the two approaching storms just beyond Thanksgiving. We know for certain that the first storm is encountering too warm of air to be anything but rain. So no need to worry about road conditions if you are headed out Friday.

Storm #1:

This system will be passing through Kansas early Friday and by early afternoon, any rain showers should be well east of the Flint Hills. Look at the temperatures behind the chance for showers. It looks very mild still, with many areas close to 60 by the end of the afternoon.

Storm #2:

We will wrap up the weekend with a storm coming through the Plains and it offers up several challenges. First, we know there will be a storm, but how much snow will it produce AND where? Latest information coming in this morning shows the track right across southern Kansas. That would mean most of the snow will go across central and northern Kansas. The storm will be moving fast and may only be around for 12-15 hours, which will limit the amounts of snow.

What we won't miss out on is the wind and cold. Gusts will likely be around 30-35 mph at the end of the weekend, and coming out of the north will lead to a big temperature drop. So please be prepared for some blowing snow on Sunday. That, in combination with lower visibility, might offer up some issues on your trip home. Millie and I will be working on Thanksgiving, so stick with us as we get you updates through the holiday.

Have a Happy Thanksgiving!

Winter Forecast 2018-19

Here it is! A winter forecast for you to consider as we are now just about a month out from the official beginning to the season. Some have already sent me messages saying I'm late to the game considering the cold weather that showed up early this season. We typically don't release the winter forecast until mid to late November (regardless of what the weather is doing at the time), and it just so turns out this year it tuned off cold before we were able to finish our thoughts.

One of the things I did when putting this together was go back and look at wet Octobers and then see what happened with snowfall later that winter. Here's what I found (from the last 20 years of data)

A wet October was defined by having at least 4" of rain:

1981 - 13.9" of snow that winter

1985 - 11.5"

1998 - 9.3"

2000 - 9.1"

2002 - 25.7"

2007 - 22.1"

2008 - 13.6"

So as you can see above, when October is wet, there is a trend toward normal or above normal winter snowfall.

Here are the other pieces of the winter forecast to consider:

El Nino: 

This is the warmer than normal water found in the Pacific near the Equator. El Nino winters have a TENDENCY to be milder with above normal precipitation. HOWEVER... just because we have an El Nino does NOT mean it will be a warm/wet winter. It also does NOT mean it will be a snowy winter. 

The last El Nino winter was back 2015-16 and it was a BIG one. Water temperatures were about 2.5°C above average, which is just amazing. That winter would go on to have only 4.3"of snow (in Wichita)... most of Kansas didn't get much snow that winter. 

So what we are really concentrating on is a combination of water temperatures in the Pacific, the Arctic Oscillation (more on this in a second), and of course the patterns we've been seeing the last nearly two months. 

Arctic Oscillation:
This is usually an indication of when we will get BIG cold spells across the county. When the Arctic Oscillation (AO) goes negative, bitter cold shows up across the US. When it's positive, we tend to have milder periods.

We expect to have both positive AND negative this winter, but when it goes negative, it will go way down. Take for example what we are seeing heading into December. The AO index continues to be very low, which has me thinking December will start off quite cold in many areas. Details on that in the coming weeks of course.

We are forecasting a cold and wet winter for Kansas, with above normal snowfall and several cold periods ahead. 

One of the weather patterns that will likely repeat this winter should look like this:

A large high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska will allow major cold snaps to take place east of the Rockies. This pattern presented itself last winter from time to time, but I think during this upcoming winter, it will be more pronounced (and last longer). This is also the kind of pattern that delivered the lengthy period of cold weather for the beginning of November.

We will also see a number of storms approach from the west and move right through our area. When that happens (with cold air in place) we will likely see the snow machine go into high gear. I don't really have much confidence in ice storms this winter. I'm don't think we will have a big ice event, but  it's not something we are totally ruling out (just because there will be so much cold air around)

Final thoughts: Consider the following:

1) October was VERY wet

2) Major flooding was experienced across many different areas of the state

3) Earliest measurable snow for Kansas - mid October

4) Very cold to start November

AND... 

5) the last 3 winter have had virtually no major winter storms

I think we are due. You can't go back in the history books and find 4 consecutive winter with less than 5 inches of snow. It's unheard of. The odds are pointing toward more snow this winter, but you can't base the entire forecast off of that idea alone. You do have to weigh that into the equation somewhere. 

Time will tell how our forecast turns out... but I think Kansas may actually have a winter this year. 

More early season, heavy snows

This has just been an incredible fall so far, not just in Kansas but in many areas around the country. We just finished up an almost 2 week stretch of colder than normal temperatures. That was helped out, of course, by snow early Monday.

Well look who was also blasted by heavy, wet snow. A big time Nor'Easter dumped over 6" of snow on many areas, including New York and just outside of D.C. The storm is wrapping up and about to move out of the US. But for mid-November, this is even early for those areas to get dumped on.

Lower Manhattan - New York

Our winter forecast comes out Sunday night at 10 p.m. It's a bunch of work, digging through old stats and looking at all of the new data. However, it's one of the things I enjoy most about my job. I really enjoy making these long range predictions and seeing how they turn out.

Weekend snow chance:

This system will be nothing like the snow maker we saw back at the beginning of the week. It's much weaker and very starved of moisture. So as the cold air takes over this weekend, we don't have to worry about getting buried in snow.

Highest chances for some light snow or flurries will be along and north of I-70. About 97% Kansas won't get any measurable snow, but northwest Kansas has the best chance of maybe getting an inch.

This will also be our last cold blast for awhile as mild weather settles in for our Thanksgiving week. We said back at the beginning of the month that warmer weather would be here before Thanksgiving and it's arriving on time.

The next thing we are carefully watching is a return to stormy and colder weather at the beginning of December. There's a possibility the snow machine will be starting back up for our area, but of course details are unknown this far out. So after we get through Thanksgiving, we will have to start watching the storm track once again.

Weekend cold snap & Thanksgiving travel outlook

Just a week out from Thanksgiving and we've had some wild weather so far this month of November. Only 1 day this month with warmer than normal temperatures. As we reported yesterday, Wichita having it's snowiest start to a fall/winter season since 1951.

The winter forecast will be released on the air Sunday night at 10 p.m. Hopefully you'll get a chance to watch. Some will be excited and others might be throwing things at the TV (I'm not suggesting that... but I see it coming).

Weekend cold front:
This should be through Kansas by 8/9 a.m. Saturday. Temperatures will be falling into the afternoon with wind chill readings (in the afternoon) down in the 20s for much of the state. There will be some light snow this weekend too.

Saturday morning: snow chances will start in northern Kansas and then gradually move south later in the day. This will not be much of a storm to watch, but some areas will get accumulation this weekend. Right now, we are thinking very low amounts (likely under 2"), but stick with us as we continue to look at new information coming in.

Sunday morning: light snow flurries will be tapering off and the clouds departing too, but cold weather will definitely still be here. Morning lows should be down in the teens and 20s, with afternoon highs climbing back to near freezing.

Thanksgiving travel week:
Monday:

Not looking bad at all. Considering how active our weather has been lately, looking to next week we should be in good shape leading up to Thanksgiving day. Kansas and surrounding areas will be dry. Much of the US will be calm. Some wet weather will return to the Pacific Northwest by midweek, AND... there is a chance we will see some rain in Kansas on Thanksgiving day. However, it's unlikely that it will be heavy OR change to wintry precipitation. So road conditions should be just fine.
Tuesday:

Have a great day. We will have travel weather updates  - and details on weekend snow chances on the air tonight.

Pattern shift happens this week

If you didn't know any different, based on the weather today you might think we have slipped into mid December or January. This is some very cold air that has settled in from Arctic areas and will be slow to move out. Snowfall reports this morning: Jetmore-4", Cimarron-4", Wakeeney-3", Hays-2.5", Ness City-2.7", Lakin-4", Wichita-2", Russell-2"

Just look at wind chills for this afternoon (Monday) at 2 p.m.:

And Tuesday afternoon isn't that much warmer:

Arctic air continues to hold strong over much of the area, so don't expect a big temperature climb even with a sunny day on the way.

Pattern Shift Coming:

The pattern shift that we are looking at takes place around Wednesday/Thursday. The bitter cold should push on to the northeast, leaving Kansas with warming temperatures that should reach 50s (could get to 60s if we didn't have any snow on the ground) by Wednesday & Thursday. The snow left on the ground will definitely thwart any big warm up coming our way. There is a chance we will see a quick shot of Arctic air coming Saturday, but I'll update you on that as the week continues. It likely won't be around for very long (if we do in fact see it arriving this weekend)

Looking ahead to Thanksgiving week:

I don't foresee any major storms at this point during Thanksgiving week. Our pattern as of late has been very active and it's likely a sign of what's coming as we move through the winter season. However, during a very busy travel week, the weather should cooperate for much of the week. Temperatures look like 40s and 50s around Kansas. Bitter cold should have retreated back to Canada and west of the Rockies, it looks like a milder period ahead.