What is the Polar Vortex & changing it up this weekend

I suggested last week that "Polar Vortex" would be all over the news headlines this week. Polar Vortex is not something that was just made up for this latest cold snap and it has been around longer than most of us have been alive. Just look at the 7 a.m. wind chills from across the region. This is the kind of cold you get with the Polar Vortex. 

So what exactly is it?

Polar - because that's where this entire setup originates and the air that surrounds it is VERY cold - just like you'd expect to find at the North Pole. It strengthens in wintertime when the Earth is tilted away from the sun and there's no daylight to help warm the polar areas. So the bitter, even dangerous cold continues to grow and expand. 

Vortex - Because of it's counter-clockwise circulation, it gets the name vortex. It's not uncommon for there to be some brief periods of snow showers that rotate around the entire setup, but it's typically not a widespread snow making machine (unless you are right next to the Great Lakes, then you can get some heavier snowfalls)

So when you hear about Polar Vortex, please understand it really is a part of meteorology and not something that social media created. And it's not something that just impacts the United States and Canada.

Changes to watch this weekend:

We will turn our attention back to the west (instead of the north) as a powerful storm hits California. This system will break into parts, with one piece moving into the Plains by Super Bowl Sunday. Kansas should remain dry, but just north of us there is a chance for a rain/snow mix. 

Our next best chance for some precipitation will come Tuesday  with a few rain showers that may skirt the area. There could be some snow mixed in, but it's unlikely to be much of a storm in our area. 

Into the deep freeze, but for how long

Good Monday everyone. January is wrapping up with some much colder weather for much of the central Plains. If you dislike cold, then be glad you don't live in Minnesota or Chicago this week. Wow!

Some areas will be -20 to -30 on the AIR temperature... not the wind chill. In meteorology, there's what is called the Polar Vortex that will be in full gear this week, pulling the bitter cold south. You can see the huge low pressure spinning near the Great Lakes.

Kansas will be just far enough west that we will escape most of the dangerous cold. This setup for the week is also a dry forecast too. We should get through the week without any rain or snow. When the winds come from the northwest, most of the precipitation changes get pushed south and east of our area.

Looking at our first weekend in February, we will have to keep an eye on the west coast. Active weather returns with chances for rain and snow. And while there is a chance for another storm system to roll through the Plains around Super Bowl Sunday, it doesn't appear this will be a big deal for Kansas.

Early look at February:
Several computer models continue to show wave after wave of cold air coming. So we have a great deal of confidence that February will be a pretty chilly month for much of this area. As far as precipitation, we will take a closer look at that in the next few days. But be prepared, the cold winter winds will continue for a big part of February.

Feb. 4-9

Feb. 12-17

Feb. 17-22

Forecast to wrap up January

Less than 10 days to finish off our first month of 2019. After such a warm start to the new year, things have flipped recently, and we expect the cold weather to continue to dominate for awhile. Sure, there may a mild day mixed in from time to time, but I think cold will continue to overwhelm many areas. We do have one warmer day coming up, and that will be Sunday when we could see some 50s.

Current snow cover across the US:

Most areas between central Kansas and Canada are covered in some amount of snow. In western Nebraska, it's not that deep, but it definitely gets deeper off to the north in the Dakotas. This is important because as the COLD air begins to build up this weekend, it's not going to modify very much as it moves south. Confidence is growing that some of the coldest air that we've seen this winter will be arriving early next week.

Shifting Pattern:

The upper level winds will continue to bring down a bunch of cold air for the next few weeks, but when the winds come out of the northwest, our chances at significant moisture are slim to none. 

So I think our February will start off chilly, but I don't think we will have any big storms now for awhile, and we may go 8-10 days into the month without much precipitation.

Last storm for awhile, but not for the cold

Another storm is tracking through Kansas today with a ton of wind, a ton of cold, but somewhat limited on snowfall. This should be our last storm that we will see for awhile (should be two weeks before our next storm shows up)

Our updated forecast - not too many changes from what we've been showing the last two days. The majority of the snow hits northern Kansas, but because of the the wind, it will be almost impossible to measure.

The setup for the rest of the week:

Kansas will continue to be in and out of cold snaps for the remainder of the week. The jet stream has buckled right over the central Plains and the upper Midwest. This is going to keep the trend of colder than normal weather going for several days yet. Even though there may be a day or two mixed in where temperatures warm, the overall theme will likely favor colder than normal weather.

Into February:
It's highly likely that going into February, our temperatures will stay at or below normal. The image shown below is the forecast for the Arctic Oscillation, which continues to stay down in negative territory. That tends to favor cold air dropping south from the Arctic, keeping most areas across the country chillier than what we'd normally have otherwise.

Remember, when the AO is negative, average temperatures in February tend to look like this:

Rain/Snow chances early February: Looks like Kansas will have some drier weather at the beginning of February. It won't stay that way, but we trending toward some calmer conditions (still cold) at the beginning of next month. And I think most of us would appreciate some drier weather for a little while. 

Latest on the storm & a lunar eclipse

Our storm will slide through Friday night and be out of here by 9 a.m. Saturday morning. The good news is that will leave most of the weekend storm free WITH more hours of sunshine (something that has been hard to come by lately).

Snowfall forecast:

Again, not looking like very much for anybody in Kansas. The storm track is literally right over the Rockies, and 9 times out of 10, when they approach like that, we don't get heavy precipitation.

Tuesday:
The next storm arriving in Kansas on Tuesday (next week) will do the same thing. It will move right over Colorado and then spread very light precipitation over the central Plains. At this time (and it likely won't change), Kansas won't get much more than some sprinkles and flurries as it tracks through this area.

Lunar eclipse Sunday night!

That's right, at the end of the weekend, we will have a total lunar eclipse. The good news, you can check it out BEFORE you go to bed Sunday night. The bad news, it will be COLD! But here's hoping after the Chiefs win Sunday night, we will get to enjoy a Chief's red moon. Viewing times are listed on the graphic, but totality lasts for about an hour. Skies will be mostly clear. You'll be able to see the moon even if we do have some high thin clouds moving on through. Enjoy. We haven't had an eclipse to talk about in quite awhile.

Snowfall Forecast - Now Posted

Very Important for tonight (Wed. Evening): Freezing drizzle-icy roads
Light freezing drizzle is expected to lead to some icy roads in central and northern Kansas (including Salina, Hays, Russell, and especially areas to the north) - Please use caution. These conditions should improve Thursday once the clouds finally begin to clear!

Snowfall Forecast for Friday night-Saturday:
We are releasing our first prediction on snow accumulation for the next storm. New data coming in continues to suggest this will be a fast moving storm with some rain and some snow. However, snow amounts will be nothing like the last storm for many areas of Kansas.

Timeline:

Snow will begin in northern Kansas by late Friday afternoon and then spread south. Central and south central Kansas will get some drizzle or very light rain showers Friday around dark. During the night, it will change to all snow and become VERY windy. A few hours of blowing snow and reduced visibility seem likely (so still near blizzard like conditions for 6-8 hours in central and eastern Kansas).

Another Change:
Something else that looks different now is to back off a bit on the extreme cold. We are still headed for some very low wind chills, but the magnitude of cold air looks like it will be most significant over the eastern 1/2 of Kansas.

All of this being said, we still have a decent storm coming through, but it's not looking quite as intense as it did a few days ago. Still, if you plan to travel early Saturday, be prepared for some slick roads and at least through 10 a.m., visibility that may be reduced because of blowing snow.

Late week storm update

Hopefully your Tuesday is going well. The fog/black ice combo was a problem in many areas and there were several reports of accidents scattered about the area. 

Here's what we are learning about the late week storm that's expected to hit:

1) Significant wind still likely from Friday evening - Saturday morning

2) Good chances of measurable snow still on the way - how much is still a bit uncertain at this point

3) Some areas will have blizzard conditions Friday night - travel is strongly discouraged

4) The cold air moving in will be cold enough to put us in a risk for frostbite, especially by Saturday night!

Timing:

North of I-70, it looks like all snow by mid/late afternoon Friday. Farther south, it appears there will be some rain before a change to snow. But I expect by 8 or 9 p.m. Friday night, it will be all snow except for some areas in southeast Kansas. 

It will snow all Friday night and continue Saturday morning. The biggest issue during that time, the WIND. Gusts of 30-40 mph will lead to blizzard conditions. 

By Saturday afternoon, the snow will quickly taper off from west to east as the storm pulls away. Then the concern will shift to extreme, even dangerous wind chills. Just look at some of these numbers Saturday night/early Sunday. When wind chills reach -10 or colder, frostbite becomes a real concern. And some areas may fall to -20 by Sunday morning.

Confidence Levels: We moved to "medium" for all categories. New data in this morning continues to suggest we will have a storm and it will have a significant impact to start the weekend. 

Another winter storm??!

Good Monday and hopefully you had a great weekend. I know this weather isn't much fun for some of you. Fighting the rain, the mud, the snow and tough travel... it can put a real strain on day-to-day activities. Yesterday, the fog in western Kansas created hoarfrost near Hays. These pictures from Brooks Barber. Hoarfrost happens when you have fog and sub-freezing temperatures where objects collect frozen water drops.

We are preparing for the potential of another very strong storm to roll through the Plains at the end of this week. Two things that will be different:
1) MUCH COLDER air diving south - Arctic air will invade and set us up for the coldest air so far this winter
2) WIND - gusts with this next storm could top 40 mph and set us up for a widespread blizzard. 

So there is a lot to look at and consider for the period Friday - Saturday night. We won't begin to discuss potential snowfall amounts until Wednesday (at the earliest). But you should be prepared for more difficult travel times at the end of the week.

Here's what we are seeing on the maps:

First, the bitter cold diving south from Canada. Temperatures will begin to fall Friday afternoon and by Saturday, we will be looking at teens for highs (wind chills near zero).

Rain/Snow Chance: There won't be much rain with this late week storm. Most of what we'll see will be snow. This will begin late Friday morning and continue into the afternoon.

The strongest part of the storm will hit Friday night - Saturday afternoon. 

We will have to watch the track, but models have been consistent over the last two days that much of Kansas and surrounding areas will be in the cross-hairs of this approaching system.

Storm update- slight change to snowfall

We made it to Friday and finished our first full week of the new year. It's going to be a very different weekend than last, with no chance of any 60s this weekend. But it is January and this forecast won't be much of a surprise.

Here's the latest. There aren't too many changes from earlier thoughts, other than to move the heavier snow band around to cover more of northern Kansas where I think the changeover to snow happens a little quicker.

Friday afternoon: Mainly rain with some snow for far western Kansas.

Temperatures will be above freezing statewide, so roads are only going to be wet - not icy. Even where we do see snow in the west, it's just not that cold, so I think we are going to be fine in all areas for evening rush Friday.

Friday after dark - more areas seeing the switch to snow - AND a strong potential of some blowing snow in western Kansas. This is not going to be a blizzard!

The faster the switch happens, the more snow we would be likely to get. In some cases, the snow may come down around an inch per hour, so it wouldn't take very long for it to pile up in spots (especially on grassy areas) - roads will be wet or slushy in spots. 

Saturday morning - snow ending from west to east - roads wet/slushy and snowpacked in spots - we are fairly certain there won't be any roads closing due to this storm.

The snow will end by early Saturday afternoon for just about all areas of Kansas. Roads will be just fine later in the day and with temperatures above freezing, we will have wet to slushy conditions for some areas, but I think we'll be in better shape later in the day Saturday. We will have some low wind chills, but they will be far from dangerous. It's just not going to be that cold this weekend. Be safe out there!