March outlook - in like a lamb

We are soaring into March on warm temperatures and no doubt, probably feeling like April more than March. I think we'd all agree that March is starting like a lamb, but the month as a whole can be a wildcard. We can have blizzards and tornadoes simultaneously - and some of our biggest snows have happened in March.

Here's where we stand on drought going into the month. The first image is the drought monitor from the week of February 17th. The image immediately following is the most recent drought index. Conditions have improved some, but western Kansas still has a need for rain.

March normals: We will gain over an hour of daylight between March 1st and the 31st. And normal highs go into the 60s by the end of the month too.

So what should we expect - first, let me say that it I don't think we have seen our last cold snap yet nor do I think we've had our last snow (for Kansas anyway). I wouldn't start the garden yet.

March looks to start dry, but moisture should be coming back mid to late month. My expectation is that we will end up with normal or above normal precipitation (likely around 2-3 inches for most of the area)

Temperatures: The month starts warm, and will likely be that way for the first couple of weeks.

Mid-late March: should be cooling down, but remember, given time of year, a drop in temperatures would probably mean highs in the 50s with lows 20s/30s. I think there will still be another push of cold air coming in from the north, which may not reach us until late in the month. We'll see.

Did you see this? A picture on social media from Leigh Marts clearly shows why forecasting snow is so difficult. In a 15 mile wide path, some areas had a foot of snow from the storm Tuesday.

It has melted quite a bit, and on Friday, I received another picture from Ryan Austin showing how much was still left. What an interesting setup ... but not one that you want to try and forecast. It's a real bear sometimes.

Calmer days until....

The weather (in typical Kansas fashion) has been really whacky lately. Big rainfall from the late weekend storm, some thunder, a huge amount of snow Tuesday in spots... must be getting close to spring.

How did we miss that 6-12" of snow that fell Tuesday? I addressed this on the air yesterday evening and it really comes down to a very narrow band of snow (only about 15 miles wide) that just didn't move once it started snowing. Our computer models do a really good job and when a storm is less than 24 hours away, we have a good handle on it. But something that small is extremely difficult for the models to get a handle on. A day will come when we will have the technology to pin point those small features, but it's not there now.

3rd wettest start to the year: I don't have all the data for other locations in Kansas, but Wichita is currently experiencing one of the wettest starts to the year on record. There are two other years ahead of us right now, 2005 and 2001.

Thursday - this will be sprinkles at best. Whatever we get will hardly be measurable during the afternoon or evening.

Weekend looks pretty good - heading back toward to the 60s by Saturday and Sunday. This puts us WELL above the normal of low 50s for late February and early March.

Great news for those who need to dry out -  again, we are seeing some signs of a temporary shift in the setup. It's not 100% raindrop free, but there's much less rain in our forecast over the 10 days.

System coming early next week - this has some potential to produce a little bit of rain or snow, but in the last couple of days, computer models are shoving more and more of the rain chances to the east. I'm expect Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and Illinois to catch the brunt of the storm as it moves on through the Plains. Our precipitation in Kansas would be extremely light at best.

Rainfall amounts - through 7 a.m. Monday

Here are rainfall amounts through 7 a.m. Monday

Hutchinson: 2.18"
LaCrosse: 2.07"
Lorraine: 1.96"
Geneseo: 1.95"
Severy: 1.73"
Newton: 1.72"
Mount Hope: 1.66"
Wichita: 1.43"
Medicine Lodge: 1.39"
McPherson: 1.37"
Jabara Airport: 1.26"
Salina: 1.16"
Winfield: 1.11"
Russell: 1.04"
Hay: .98"
Pratt: .94"
Dodge City: .56"
Hill City: .52"
Garden City: .34"
Liberal: .21"
Elkhart: .07"
Goodland: .04"

Radar estimates are shown below from the last 24 hours. Heaviest amounts ended up south of I-70 and generally in central and south central Kansas. On the high side, there were some 2" amounts, but most were down closer to 1.50"

Snow chance arriving Tuesday:

This doesn't look like a big snow event, but there will be some 1" amounts before it's over. Parts of central and northern Kansas may end up with some 1" totals before it pushes out Tuesday night. Gusty north winds and falling temperatures are on the way for the afternoon.

I know we have MANY, MANY areas that need drier weather. We will start the process on Wednesday and continue it through the weekend. However, a wetter than normal March still looks highly possible, so dealing with mud and wet weather might be something we have to get used to until later this spring. A March outlook from me will come later this week.

Sunday storm - look at this potential rain

The very active weather pattern continues this weekend with yet another system targeting our area Sunday. It feels like we've had one storm right after another and the drought, which has been widespread in western Kansas, continues. There has been some improvement on the eastern fringe of the areas in western Kansas.

Sunday storm: rain will already be falling on parts of Kansas by the time most of us wake up. This is a storm encountering warmer weather, so 98% of the state will be getting rain and not snow.

Sunday afternoon: rain continues to soak much of the Plains with some thunder possible. It's actually a pretty impressive system and if temperatures were colder, this would be a HUGE snow producer. In fact, we'd be close to a foot of snow given how the storm is tracking across northern Oklahoma.

How much rain? This is big for late February. Many areas will be close to an inch across central and southern Kansas. Farther north and west, the rain totals will drop, but even if we get a third of an inch in western Kansas, that will be very helpful.

The timing of the rain looks like a Sunday afternoon/evening event. I'm expecting the track of the low to go right across northern Oklahoma and into south central Kansas. That will put much of the state in the running for some decent rainfall in late February, but also raises the question about where the snowfall will be. While I think the snow will be limited, I'm expecting at least some to move across the northwest. 

Planet trifecta:

This weekend (Saturday anyway) if you get up early, the three planets you are seeing in the southeast are Saturn, Jupiter, and Mars (respectively from the horizon)

This weekend looks to have milder weather and many areas will be roughly 10° above normal. Our average high goes to 51° this weekend, so getting above normal again feels good and VERY springlike. 

Next week will flip around to the other side of things. A stronger cold front is expected to arrive Tuesday, sending us back to winter weather. A BIG storm is not in the works for next week, but we could see a few hours of flurries or light snow Tuesday or Tuesday night. It might lead to a dusting, but that should be about it.

Two storms - both very different for the Plains

There are two systems that will impact our weather over the next 5 days. Both system will behave differently and neither one of them will stick around for very long.

System #1 - Today/early Thursday:

This isn't a well organized system and the amounts of snow we get from it will be rather light. The snow has started to fall in southwest Kansas and the area will continue to expand into the afternoon. Computer models still suggest that the highest amounts should end up in far western Kansas (close to 3 or 4 inches in spots), but farther east amounts will drop and central/south central should get less than 2 inches. By 8 or 9 a.m. Thursday, clouds and snow depart and we should have some sun by the afternoon.

Here's what else to know about the system:

• Light north winds - little if any blowing snow
• No ice accumulations or power outages expected

System #2 - Sunday:

Our temperatures will be milder by the time this low pressure system moves into Kansas. The track of the system will determine where the heaviest rainfall ends up, but this feature has access to some rich moisture. It will likely drop some .50-1" amounts before it departs. (see image below). If the track shifts north (which has been the trend in the last 24 hours), then heavier rains will go through north central and northeast Kansas - or perhaps even farther north.

The rain chances begin Sunday and should be winding down by Sunday evening. Here's what else to expect with the Sunday storm:

• Fast moving - only around for about 8-12 hours
• Temperatures Sunday in the 40s and 50s
• Gusty winds up to 35 mph - should turn to the north Sunday night
• Any snow chances will be limited to far northwest Kansas (if the track doesn't change)

February ends COLD: Quite the opposite of how it all started. The beginning of the month had very mild weather, but below normal temperatures are on the horizon later next week. It could be a several day stretch of 30s for highs, meaning we will be 15-20° below average. A strong front will move through next Tuesday, and the remaining days of the month will be colder than normal. Although this month of February isn't going to make history in terms of cold, the number of below normal days will certainly outpace the warmer ones.

Has it been that snowy this winter?

The answer is not really. Take a look back at the last 10 seasons of snow and you'll see that there are 6 other years (in just the last 10) that have had more snow than this winter. Several small storms have helped us get to the 6.9", but we still have March coming up and the month is shaping up to be wetter than normal. 

Another snow chance this week

Welcome to Monday - hope the weekend was a restful one for you and you did get some time to enjoy the milder weather. Just about a month out from the official beginning of spring and winter fights on this week.

Overnight - Tuesday morning:

I don't expect this to be anything more than some sprinkles or light snow flurries, but chances are back in southwest Kansas. In most areas temperatures will be hoovering above freezing when there is some moisture coming down, so roads shouldn't be a huge issue. This area though continues with drought, so any precipitation is likely welcome.

Next main snow chance - Wednesday:

This is likely not going to be a big storm, but instead, several hours of steady light snow that will lead to accumulations. It won't be a blizzard or an ice storm. The winds don't look that strong and the moisture looks to be mainly in the form of snow - not a mixed setup.

It should begin early Wednesday in western Kansas and then gradually develop and spread east. Our temperatures won't be quite as cold as last week, but most of us will likely have 30s while it's snow. Our winds will be coming from the east, but those should stay below 20 mph during the storm.

Snow chances will likely carry over into early Thursday, but by then, we should be down to flurries with no extra accumulation. 

We will take another look at the data this afternoon, but my expectation is that western Kansas could be in the 3-5" amounts by the time Wednesday night rolls around. Farther east, amounts will be lower. 

Hurry up spring! Have a great day. 

Is the coldest of winter behind us now?

Thanks for spending a few minutes here catching up on Kansas weather and what's coming next. A few weeks ago, I mentioned we might be moving into a little drier pattern and that still looks to be the case. We had some 1-4" amounts on Wednesday, and northwest Kansas picked up about an inch yesterday (Thursday). It would be unlikely for Kansas to get any moisture next week (week of Feb. 17) - and even if something does come through here it won't be more than a sprinkle or flurry.

Here's an update on snowfall for the season - still below normal, although many areas are seeing near "normal" amounts to this point in February.

What's next?! We've just dealt with the coldest air of the season in most of Kansas anyway. It was quite remarkable to see afternoon temperatures on Thursday never break 20° in most places, but it's not surprising with snow on the ground. What's next is a nice big warm up that will send us back above average, and this will spread across much of the Plains states. Warmest weather this weekend will in fact be Sunday.

It would be unlikely to have anything quite this cold returning this winter. We've said February would be cold, and it still looks like below normal temperatures will continue (even though it may NOT be Arctic air)

Next week - temperatures drop again:
Expect below average temperatures to return AFTER Monday. Chilly, but nothing out of the ordinary for February. Normal highs go to 50° next week - so below average now will most likely be highs in the 40s.

The moon swallows Mars - what?

Okay, so not exactly, but if you like astronomy, this might be of interest to you. Tuesday, the moon will pass in front of Mars (known as "occulting" and it will happen early in the day. If we end up with clear skies, you will see the Red Planet disappear first behind the bright side of the moon, then it will reemerge on the dark side of the disk nearly 90 minutes later.

• Starts around 5:52 A.M. Tuesday
• Ends around 7:20 A.M. - skies will be lighter as sunrise takes place before 7:20.

Mars, known as the Red Planet, is one of those that is regularly visible in our sky throughout the year. There are 5 occultations this year involving Mars, but this is the only one visible from the United States in 2020.

El Nino/La Nina update - early spring moisture

It's been several months since we touched on the status of El Nino/La Nina out in the Pacific. As a reminder, this refers to the water temperatures along the equator out in the Pacific. Warmer than normal water is El Nino, while colder than normal would be La Nina.

You've seen me talk about them before and they have profound impacts on weather here in the United States.

Currently, we are in between (or "neutral") where water temperatures are pretty close to normal. If you look in the box below, there's not an overwhelming amount of orange or blue, which would be the case if we had an El Nino or La Nina, respectively. 

By all accounts, it looks as if the neutral phase will continue through spring and almost all of our summer. Neutral phase doesn't necessarily mean anything in terms of what kind of severe weather season we might have, but going into summer, it does lessen the chances of drought conditions for the Plains. That normally sets up in a La Nina phase, and we don't see that happening soon.

An early spring outlook for moisture suggests a wet spring could be in the works. The areas shaded in blue would be 3-6 inches above normal spring rains. Even though this is just one snapshot to look at, given the continued active weather pattern, one might expect there to be some truth to what we are seeing here. Again, whether that translates to a bunch of severe thunderstorms, that's not very clear.

Focusing on our current weather, we are about to have a big blast of cold coming in for Thursday. 

The cold air diving south across the USA will be felt all the way to the Gulf coast. Much of the area will be 15 to 25° below normal. This won't likely set records, but it will rank up there with some of the coldest of the season.

Be ready for wind chills Thursday morning, down in single digits below zero in central and eastern Kansas.

We do get a nice rebound coming up into the weekend, but we still have more chilly air coming next week. Winter (I have a feeling) won't be going away without a fight this year.

Active weather this week, but how rough will it be?

Hope everyone had a great weekend. An active weather pattern is showing up this week with a series of storm systems approaching from the west. And in all reality, it's something that may continue into next week too, but how significant will the storms be?

First chance for snow tonight:

This isn't anything to be concerned about. A stray flurry or two might clip southern Kansas, but accumulations should stay well south of our immediate area. Models are suggesting several inches of snow may fall in New Mexico and and parts of southern Colorado.

Second chance for moisture Wednesday:

Again, based on the track of the main low pressure system, this will again be another system that is a miss to the south (which has happened a bunch this winter). The system gets wrapped up Wednesday afternoon and areas along and southeast of the Turnpike might have a rain/snow mix for part of the afternoon. Temperatures will likely be above freezing, so I'm not concerned about road conditions being a problem. Heavier rains will soak eastern Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas.

Next strong cold front: this will come through late Wednesday night or early Thursday. It's nothing we haven't seen already this winter, but highs will probably slip back to the 30s for at least one day. Then a rebound will take place heading toward the weekend.

We do have more active weather lined up from the weekend into early next week, but none of these future storms really have the indications of being anything more than light sprinkles or flurries at this time.

And if you are counting, we are less than 40 DAYS to spring!!

Have a great day.