Here comes the rain! Get ready

The month of May started with some widespread, heavier rainfall that covered a decent chunk of Kansas. Since then, it feels as though the rains have been somewhat spotty and we still have a long way to go in fighting drought conditions around central and western Kansas. Remember, images below can be clicked on for better interpretations. 

Here's the map showing how much rain in the last 14 days for Kansas:

Here's how that compares to average (or normal) moisture - for the 2 week period:

What's to come- this is a slow moving low pressure system that will wobble it's way through the Plains until Wednesday. While the intensity of the rain and resulting amounts will be heaviest across southern Kansas, everybody should get something. Northwest Kansas is on track to get lower totals (up to .50"), while eastern Kansas gets the most (probably 2.50-4"). Central Kansas should get an inch or more, with southwest Kansas potentially getting close to an inch before it's over. 

The one thing to remember is this is a multi-day rain event, so we have to be a bit patient. I know the rain is likely way too late for the wheat crop, but for corn, grass, soybeans, etc. the list goes on and on. We might even get some runoff to put water back in some farm ponds too. This is badly needed in many areas AND without the worry of severe storms, we couldn't have ordered up anything better for Kansas. 

Have a great day.

Hopeful signs of some rain - for now

Some fascinating changes taking place in the weather to wrap up this week. First, record high temperatures will setup for the Plains Thursday and then it's followed by an incredible drop for the start of the weekend - and snow nearby. 

Here's the rundown of record highs and the corresponding years:

It's not our first encounter with summer heat because we saw this in our second full week of May with highs well above average. 

Snow in May?

Look how close we get with a weekend system coming across the High Plains and into Kansas on Saturday. While our area gets rain showers (no thunder with this batch of moisture), you can see where the snow will be flying - Colorado. In fact, in the Denver area, snowfall amounts in excess of 6" will be possible before it all ends Saturday afternoon. The mountains will of course, get a bunch more. 

Kansas shouldn't expect anything heavy on Saturday. Just a very chilly day and some showers that could yield up to .25", but unlikely more than that. 

Early next week:

The system getting some traction as a possible heavy rain maker is next week. A system arriving in the upper atmosphere should come out of the Rockies and into the Plains Monday-Tuesday. If the system slows down, which looks likely to happen, there should be ample time for this one to drop nice rains. There is a chance of 1-2 inch rainfall to happen over the course of two days. Severe weather chances look unlikely, given how cool it will be and several other missing ingredients. 

Memorial Day weekend preview:

Get ready for a WARM! Memorial Day weekend. The pattern shifts to more of a summertime look, which may not be all that surprising how things are going for us lately. I'm expecting some widespread heat as we wind down the month of May. Temperatures running 5-8° above normal would yield 80s and 90s.

Smoky skies, a lunar eclipse, and is summer here to stay

You may be noticing extra haze in the air, perhaps even the extra orange and red in our sunrise and sunsets across the Plains. Wildfires burning in New Mexico are the issue. Due to our close proximity to the fires, we will probably have this quite often in the coming weeks until they can get some containment on those fires. 

At last check, here are the stats from the fires:

• Hermits Peak - 197,000+ acres burned (43% contained)
• Cerro Pelado - 41,000 acres burned (11% contained)

Wednesday evening:

Friday morning:

Safe to say that more smoke will be coming through our sky even at the end of the week, so the enhanced sunrise and sunsets aren't going to end anytime soon with that big fire ongoing in the Southwest. 

Lunar Eclipse:

This will be our first one in more than a year. The last lunar eclipses were either not visible in our area or were only partial ones that weren't really worth checking out. We do have two of them this year - both visible across North America. The next one comes up in November, BUT it will happen in the early morning hours and might require you to set the alarm extra early (it happens in the 4-5am hour). Plus, in November it could be quite chilly and chances of having clouds to block the view do increase at that time of year. 

The weather looks like it will cooperate for this celestial event. Here's a map of where the clouds may be lining up Sunday night at 10PM. We will probably have some higher-level clouds coming across the sky, but it shouldn't totally block our view. 

Storm chances:

Thursday night we have a cold front sweeping through, which will increase the potential of some storms around parts of the state. All but far western Kansas will have chances. Future Track is developing storms into central Kansas after 7pm:

And by Friday morning, the leftover showers will be farther east:

Rainfall Forecast - through next week:

Chances are going to be a bit better next week - but not for all areas of the state. We will have some chances on Sunday, Tue/Wed, and then again late in the week. While western Kansas is not likely to be in a favorable spot, central and northern Kansas may be in the running for some more rain. Farther east, rain looks likely. I think we will see a pretty decent pattern shift at the end of next week, and that may trigger some widespread rains as we approach the weekend. In fact, some of the best may be holding off until the end of the week (May 19/20).

As for temperatures, we will likely be cooling things down with highs near normal from May 18-25. That would mean more high temperatures closer to 80° rather than the 90+ that so many have seen this week.

Have a great day and thanks for spending a few minutes here.

Tornado count after a very busy few weeks

I can't say for sure just how many tornados have been confirmed in Kansas after the last 8-10 days, but safe to say it's feeling like severe weather season again (after having such quiet seasons the past few years).

Talking about the United States as a whole, there have been over 600 tornado reports (actual count will be slightly different), which would make this one of the busiest seasons since 2012. It appears that 2017 was only slightly more active since 2012. Sometimes official count on tornadoes isn't known until several weeks after an event, so that's why the 600 count will change somewhat over the coming days. It is still above the 75th percentile (through May 5th)

Kansas Tornado numbers from the last few years:

• 2021 - 37
• 2020 - 17 (one of the lowest counts on record)
• 2019 - 89 (slightly above average)
• 2018 - 45
• 2017 - 60 (about average)
• 2016 - 102 (40 above average)

I don't know exactly how many tornados we've had this year, but I believe it is somewhere between 15-20 thus far. We are still moving into the peak of tornado season in Kansas, which usually comes in mid to late May. Memorial Day weekend is always notorious for having severe weather. 

Next week (second full week of May) the setup looks like this:

There will be a large upper low out in the west (northern California) for a few days. Ahead of the upper system, very warm temperatures will cover the Plains states - most days will have highs in the 80s to near 90. Highest rain chances will be north of Kansas up into Nebraska and the Dakotas, parts of Wyoming and northern Colorado.

As much as we'd like the rain to be here (especially in the west), those areas are in drought too and need the rain. I think the best we can look at will be hit and miss thunderstorm opportunities for Kansas - NOT widespread. Wednesday through Friday may have some chances, but they are not very good.

We will be looking at the following weekend (May 14/15) for an increased potential of rain/storms. Details when we get closer. 

Have a great weekend.

Let it rain and rain!!

The month of April ended with some record-low rainfall amounts from Goodland and Garden City. As promised, we would call these out once they were finalized and here's what we've got:

Interestingly enough, Goodland picking up more than 1" of rain on Monday (in a 24 hour period) is the first time that has happened in almost a year.

Slow moving system provides widespread rain:

The Wednesday/Thursday system should drop some good moisture in the Plains. I can't guarantee that everybody will get 1", but most of us will see something close to that (and more). And this is spread out into Thursday too, so please be patient. This moisture will wrap around a low pressure system that will sit in Kansas for about 36 hours. Heaviest will probably go across south central or southeast Kansas, but everybody in the state will get rain. This might be one of the heaviest (and most widespread rain events) we will have in this entire month. 

The map shown below is rainfall compared to normal - the numbers indicating how far below average. Remember that much of the state gets about 3-5.5" in the entire month. In some areas, May is the wettest month of the year (according to the averages). 

May averages look like this:

Enough rain to just get by, but not the heavy, pond-filling rains that some areas need to get through a dry summer.

Final thoughts on the Andover tornado:

I've received several questions regarding the track, and some disputing the original map showing the damage path. We don't make the map - National Weather Service meteorologists that go out and survey the damage come up with the details and the EF rating. I think some felt it should be rated EF4 since some homes lost ALL of the walls - only thing left was a foundation and sub-flooring. However, we were told from the meteorologist out surveying that those walls were only nailed to the sub-flooring and not anchored down with screws. Therefore, less wind needed to tear those walls down. Therefore, it gets an EF3 rating with peak winds of 165 mph. 

Here's how the tornado tracks compare (from 1991 to April 14, 2012 to Friday night) Although similar, the F5 from 91 tracked farther west than what happened Friday night. The April 2012 storm lifted before it really reached the Andover community. It is quite fascinating (although sad) that particular area continues to get hit. 

A special thank you to our storm chasers who helped sound the alarm for early warning. There were a few tornadoes on Friday and no serious injuries or fatalities - we credit that to early warning and a team effort among meteorologists and spotters.