January outlook - Arctic air watch

 An early Happy New Year to you and thanks for spending a few minutes here catching up. You may not like what we have to showcase going into January, but when we issued the winter forecast, we said the coldest of the winter would be centered on January. And it does appear that the first big batch of Arctic air arrives very soon. I don't think it's record cold, but it could be around for a week or so, and my suspicion is the month (as a whole - averaged out) will be near or slightly below average on temperatures. 

The next winter storm in the making?

Around January 9-12th, a rather large system should develop into the desert Southwest once again (we've seen a bunch of them this winter already). This should link up with higher pressures up over the north pole, which will allow the bitter cold to barge south into the US. See the map below and notice the "H" up over Greenland, and also look at the deep blue/green back in Utah and Nevada. That's what we believe will be the next winter storm to come through the region.

Obviously, the finer details are murky at best this far out, but I'd be ready for some really cold weather to settle in as we approach mid-January. 

Another factor that deserves mention too is the Arctic Oscillation, which is quite negative over the next 30 days and beyond. When that happens, it does increase the potential of much colder stretches of weather to arrive (it's not always a guarantee), but usually is a telegraph for what's down the road. In this setup, higher pressure up over the pole allows the colder air to dislodge and head south. The line that we pay most attention to in the image below is the solid black line. All the way to the end of January, it's negative, so our chances of having a warm month ahead are very slim.

Here's a 32-day snow prediction off one of the computer models - what's a bit interesting is just how much of the country could experience some snow in the upcoming month. The more we put down, the better the chances will be for the cold air to hang around longer. 

If you're interested in January "norms", here they are. It's not necessarily the snowiest month of the year, but it is the month with the lowest average temperatures (you probably aren't surprised by that). The averages will start to go up mid-late month. We are also gaining daylight now that we have passed the solstice. 

Winter is starting to show up - get ready

We've been enjoying some very mild weather for December, but it would appear this is about to change in the coming weeks. We still haven't had any Arctic air and this month is on pace to be a top 10 warmest around the state. Look at these stats as we hit the halfway point in December:

• Goodland - 4th warmest
• Salina - 7th warmest
• Dodge City - 8th
• Wichita - 9th

Nearly the entire country is experiencing a very warm month so far, and I don't look for that to change much between now and year's end. It's been pretty strange. 

Couple of things to watch:

Arctic oscillation: This can sometimes be the first clue of a major shift toward warm or colder trends. We've covered this before, but a "positive" Arctic oscillation indicates less cold reaching us from the polar region, while "negative" AO values suggest a better chance of an Arctic invasion. 

What are we seeing now? It's been pretty positive lately, but a trend to negative shows up into the early days of 2024. Will it be an abrupt shift or a gradual easing? My suspicion is that we will ease into the colder weather, and even if we do see some Arctic air coming in, they may be brief bouts of it. 

Building high pressure in western Canada:

If we see high pressure (or a ridge) going up in western Canada into early January, that could easily signal an invasion of bitterly cold air coming into the lower 48. This setup has not been a reality yet in December, but a shift to this may happen in the coming weeks. 

All of this leading to a forecast map that looks like this for early January:

And here's another preview of mid-late January:

Of course, the southern branch of the jet stream (also known as the sub-tropical jet) will remain active too, bringing more moisture off the Pacific and right into the desert Southwest and across the southern Plains. This is classic of El Nino setups, but will the bitter cold from the north meet up with the moisture coming across the south? 

Heads up for a post-Christmas storm:

While we won't have a white Christmas this year, just beyond the holiday we will have another low pressure tracking across the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains. If you are going to be traveling around the holiday, consider this early heads up to some active weather. I don't think it will be a big winter storm (given the lack of widespread cold), but we have to watch and wait. The model image below highlights the wet weather from California to Plains and deep South. Those green colors represent above average moisture (in much of Kansas, this is .50-1" ABOVE), so could easily be a pretty wet system coming on through. 

Have a great day and thanks for spending a few minutes here. 

Winter Forecast 2023-24

This winter forecast might seem late because we already had a nice snow event right after Thanksgiving. Considering we are just a week in on meteorological winter and the solstice isn't until the 21st, we still have the entire season ahead of us. You've probably seen a few winter forecasts out there floating around, probably on the social platforms, but I think it's important you hear from us what our thoughts are going into the season. 

Overall:

I don't think this winter is going to be that cold at all. I'm fairly certain we will make it through December with no Arctic air at all. It's amazing. Even as we write this up, looking up into central Canada of all places, nighttime temperatures are in the teens. That's not Arctic air and it will be several more weeks before we even see a chance of it coming this way. 

I do believe the heart of the cold is focused over January this winter. You might be saying "isn't it always that way?" Just remember two years ago in February of 2021, we had two full weeks of sub-freezing weather. It went all the way to the Deep South and is something we still talk about today. And there are years where the worst of the cold comes in December, and then it's a cake walk in January and February. Whatever Arctic air we get this winter should be fairly brief episodes, but again, January looks cold. February looks a bit milder (or "less cold").

What's the biggest driver of the winter forecast?

It's El Niño and I'm guessing most of you have heard it referenced before. Last year at this time, it was La Niña, and the two can be confusing. El Niño is warmer than average water along the Equator in the Pacific and La Niña is the opposite. In an unusual scenario, we had 3 back-to-back years of La Niña which are notorious for summer droughts and prolonged heat waves. Now that El Niño is here, odds tend to be in our favor of getting more moisture. The map below shows what a typical El Niño winter does for precipitation in Kansas, but this is an average and not necessarily what this winter will do. 

This El Niño is a strong one, as the water temperatures (in the green box) are running about 2°C above average. It's not historic, but at that level, there should be a pretty solid influence on the jet stream well into spring (and maybe beyond). The last El Niño of this magnitude (or stronger) was back in 2015-16.

One other considering factor is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which also deals with warm and cool water in the Pacific (hence the name). Cool water along the North American coastline and warmer water in the North Pacific is a "negative" PDO - that happens to be the phase we are currently in. In the graph below, you'll see how it bounces back and forth, and this year a negative PDO and an El Niño are happening together. We don't have much history on the two happening together, but in the few cases that we do have, winter snowfall was higher than average. 

Other takeaways:

A very active southern branch of the jet stream seems inevitable, and it already appears underway. Kansas is likely going to be on the northern fringe of it, so look for the better moisture (and more significant drought removal) to be in the southern half of the state this winter. This is also where the better snowfall will probably be this winter.

There is another piece of the winter pattern that will bring some milder/warmer stretches of weather. When Alaska is getting snow and much colder weather, we will likely have a warmer setup in the Plains and the northern Plains. 

Just for fun:

I compiled past El Niño winters (including the weak ones) and what the snowfall amounts were for Wichita, Goodland, and Dodge City. See for yourself - the amounts are highly variable. 

Wichita:

Goodland:

Dodge City:

What do the seasonal model forecasts have:

The warmth of December and nighttime lows will likely contribute most to the warmth that you see in the map below. Arctic air will find its way to Kansas, but as mentioned above, they will probably be short lived. 

Precipitation:

More classic El Nino signatures here with above average moisture forecast for the central Plains. I would be a little suspicious of northern Kansas being "above", but there's reason to be hopeful this winter provides enough moisture to keep the drought from rapid expansion (and in some cases, it should even improve).