August outlook - changes aren't far off

I've gone radio silent the last few weeks because - well - it's summer and we keep repeating the same thing over and over. Dry and hot. Dry and hot. But there's plenty happening behind the scenes to keep us busy, and we have some exciting changes coming to Always on Storm Team 12 (more about that in a minute). 

Here's a quick review of July rainfall (through the 30th):

From a statewide map (rainfall compared to average) looked like this - just look at all of the areas that finish the month very, very dry. Southwest Kansas had the heavier moisture, while much of central and south central is in rough shape. 

August Outlook:

Here are the averages or "normals" for the month ahead:

The latest heat wave should end in the first week of August. We've been covering it week after week - the high pressure system (or heat dome) that is the epicenter of the heat wave is going to break down early in August and shift back to Arizona, which will set us up for some bigger changes. 

It will be nice to cool things off, but where's the rain? I had a chance to talk with some county fairgoers in Ellsworth recently and everyone is talking about how strange the rain has been the past several months - VERY spotty. One place gets an inch but 4 miles down the road it's only a .10" The beginning of August could have some welcome rainfall and actually be WETTER than average for the central Plains. This could wind up being an inch to maybe two inches - this is for August 8-13th:

The month of August (overall) will likely be warmer than average, but not record warm. We will see a "cooler" stretch of weather coming up that may last into mid-month. 

Once we get into the second half of the month, I anticipate it getting hot again, but not for weeks on end and maybe not even as hot as it has been. Remember, our average high temperature starts dropping by August chances of topping 100° tends to end after about the first 5-8 days in September, and our average high temperature starts dropping on August 5th (back down to 92°)

I don't think August will be a month with significant drought improvement, but I think our chances for rain look a little better than they did in July (on a larger scale). Again, a "wet" month - unlikely for most. And maybe it's not saying much, considering we didn't get much rain in July, but August should have more rain. 

It has been hot lately, but we are not experiencing anything unusual locally (as far as temperatures are concerned). This is not a top 10 hottest summer and even the number of 100s don't stand out. 

New look at Always on Storm Team 12:

We are excited to debut our new and updated 12.2 Always on Storm Team 12 coming very soon (likely in the next few weeks). What you will see are several new map and more content than ever before. We plan to show extended outlooks (8-14 day rain and temperature maps), national drought maps, rainfall updates as they happen, lake levels, etc. It will give you more information than we've ever had on the channel, and it's a brand-new look. Be sure to let us know what you think once it finally gets on the air in the next few weeks. Stay tuned. 

This is the current version:

This is what the new version will look like:

 

Filling Cheney Lake - does the outlook suggest it might happen

We've done so many stories on Cheney Lake lately that it feels like old news when we cover it from a different angle. In recent days, we've been showing how the water level is the lowest since 2013. Information courtesy of NWS Wichita:

The lake level has been lower, which had me thinking that if the lake was over 8 feet down in 2013, what did it take to bring it back to a "normal" level? The measurement was in February of 2013, but the rains didn't start happening (on a larger scale) until late in the summer. In August of that year, heavy rains impacted south central Kansas and locations around Cheney had 10". That helped to bring the lake back up, but what helped even more was big rain that fell in June 2014. 

Two months of big rains! The entire Cheney basin was inundated with 8-10" during the June 2014 rainy spell, so plenty of that water was able to flow into the lake bringing it back above a normal level. When you think about how much water it would take to fill it up, easily it would be 8-10 inches and with that kind of rainfall, some of you will feel like we are floating away.

I started thinking maybe all of that rain came in an El Nino year, which tends to favor better moisture for Kansas. What I found out is that in 2013 and 2014, we were in a "neutral" phase - meaning not La Nina or El Nino. Fighting back against a falling lake level would be an easier battle if we were in an El Nino or a "neutral" stage, but that is definitely not the case moving forward. 

We are fast approaching a La Nina phase where the water near the equator in the Pacific is cooler than average. See the map for yourself:

That has me concerned we won't put significant water IN Cheney Lake for quite some time because the tendency is for drier conditions in La Nina setups. And new information coming in during the last few weeks suggests this phenomenon will hold on until maybe summer of 2025 before it weakens considerably.

If you believe the seasonal models, the three-month period of August, September, and October will be (as a whole), drier than normal. This doesn't mean we won't get any rain at all, but it's not overly encouraging when you are trying to get some decent runoff to fill ponds and lakes. 

The latest drought map that came out on July 11th has three very dry pockets in Kansas. South central, central, and a small part of southwest Kansas continue in "severe" drought. 

Thanks for reading!