Changes coming, but we still have time

The winter solstice is on December 21st at 9:03am, and we've already released our winter forecast, which was met with some interesting feedback. Some of you hate the cold and snow, while others don't mind it around Christmas time, but then after the holiday, you want sunshine and 60s/70s. 

Lately, it seems like all of the snow is hanging around the Great Lakes, upper Midwest, and northern Plains. Just take a look at how much snow has already fallen for those locations:

This is classic La Nina in wintertime - basically cold and wet across the northern tier of the US, but the southern Plains is dry and warm. It won't be this way all winter long, but as evidenced lately, there will be some very lengthy periods that are pretty quiet for Kansas. 

What's next:

Still looks rather warm overall through Christmas as the main jet stream winds come straight in from the west or northwest. As we've seen lately, Kansas is the battleground for the warm and cold, but what seems to be winning on most days is the milder air.

Keep an eye on the period around New Years and right after because we should start seeing much colder air taking over across the Plains states and the northern tier of the US. That's when we see the Arctic Oscillation going "negative", which usually allows for much colder air to break off from the Canadian provinces and settle farther south. However, it also looks like the high pressure (ridge) over the western US starts to weaken, allowing for some very wet/snowy setups over the western 1/3 of the nation.

I know some of the images we post can be a little "in the weeds" or confusing, but overall, our message for winter hasn't changed. Still looks like we have a fair amount of mild before any prolonged period of cold. And moisture will return too, but it may not happen on a larger scale until we approach the new year and get started with 2026.

Winter forecast 2025-26

Whether you like the season or not, winter weather is always a big point of discussion this time of year. Two questions that come up routinely in conversation are "how bad is the winter going to be", or "how much snow are we going to get". It seems like we start getting these questions around state fair time onward. 

These long-range forecasts are difficult, and there's a great deal of analyzing and thought put into what we release, but at the end of the day, nobody has the answers. Still, we do what we can so you have an understanding of what might be ahead in the coming months. 

❄Last Winter:

It was a snowy one for south central Kansas, but other areas of the state just had "average" snow. Most of it didn't arrive until January and February, with almost 0 snow reported in December 2024.

❄This Winter:

It's highly possible the main snow tracks this winter will be farther north (through Nebraska, Iowa, northern Missouri, and the upper Midwest), so although there are some similarities to the setup from last winter, parts of the state will not be as snowy this winter (like Wichita). However, northern Kansas could be snowier this winter compared to last.

Two interesting factors: La Nina in the Pacific (south of Hawaii) and a very warm Gulf of Alaska. This was the case last winter too, but the water off the coast of Alaska is just a bit warmer. I'm starting to think this will favor high pressure in that region, which in turn will force more Arctic air to slide east of the Rockies (pushing down into the US). This could be a routine occurrence throughout the winter.

The La Nina is essentially of the same strength and magnitude as it was last winter.

La Nina also favors colder than average weather across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Kansas will be on the western fringe of most of it, but there will be some stretches ahead where it stays quite cold for several consecutive days (but not likely weeks on end).

We should have a couple of wet storms coming out of the Southwest between now and March, but when they arrive, it may not be cold enough for snow. It's entirely possible that we'll have a wet winter overall, but it won't all be snow and it may come with just a few stronger low pressure systems.

Every year, each member of the weather team submits a snow prediction. Most of us might have some simple methodology in how we arrive at our numbers, but in the end, it is a forecast and not a guarantee. We do the best we can with what we have and hope that it is helpful in some fashion. And in case you're wondering, there's no prize awarded to the team member who gets closest 😊

Coming soon - colder and more active

Maybe this comes as no surprise when you think about mid-late November, but with Thanksgiving coming up and our winter forecast out soon, we want to highlight some of the stuff we are looking at behind the scenes. After the two-day cold snap that hit Nov. 9/10, it's about to turn colder and stay cold as we hit the end of the month and all of December may be very, very chilly. More about that in a second. 

First, let's focus on what's arriving as we move through the second half of November. A series of systems coming off the West coast will increase the likelihood of wetter than average weather for Kansas. This isn't a particularly wet time of the year, but compared to "average", it certainly looks like rain is ramping up.

There are several systems lined up and ready to move east - different from the beginning of the month when most of the active weather went across the northern US. The "active" weather could include chances for rain and snow, but as always, those specific details get ironed out with time. 

There are several factors we are closely monitoring heading into the start of winter. Lately, the Arctic Oscillation has been negative and remains that way for the remainder of November and into December. That by itself is NOT a promise of an extended period of colder weather, but since we are seeing signs of ridging (or high pressure) setting up west of the Rockies, it could be foretelling of bitter cold cutting across the northern Rockies and draining right down into Kansas.

Definitely want to be ready for much chillier weather as we move into Thanksgiving and beyond. Several factors lining up and many models are now locked in on the colder pattern ahead.