Another chilly snap might be coming, but rain....?

We've had our fair share of wind this month of March. Living in the Plains, we are accustomed to some wind, but gusts over 65 and 70 mph pushes the threshold of what most of us consider acceptable. Take a look at these March calendars of wind gusts:

Hays:

Dodge City:

Wichita:

The reason why it's been so dang windy is just how intense the low pressure systems have been coming out of the West. They are reaching their peak strength here in the Plains, with atmospheric pressure dropping almost as low as what you'd find in hurricanes. It's a little unusual to see a barometer reading get down to around 28" of mercury in Kansas, but when you do, you can guarantee the wind will be quite intense. 

Are we done with the cold?

I still think another stretch of chilly weather may be coming in the first half of April. Why? Well, we again look to the Arctic Oscillation and it has gone negative. This time of the year, a cold snap would likely be highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s, but I would be prepared for the second week in April to trend cooler than average. 

This doesn't always mean it will get colder, but it's something we'll be watching, and early spring gardeners should be on the lookout. This is what the temperature map looks like for mid April (compared to average):

April rainfall isn't looking spectacular at this point. I think will be some rain at the beginning of the month, and then again late in the month, but mid-April looks dry. Of course, we could get lucky and end up under a slow moving thunderstorm that drops some beneficial rain, but that wouldn't show up in our data right now. 

Tornado count in Kansas remains at zero right now, but nationally it has been increasing rapidly. It doesn't indicate one way or the other how the upcoming storm season will go in the Plains. Look back at the last 10 years of data and see that the first three months of the year tend to be very quiet with respect to tornadoes. Even in 2017 when we had just over 10 tornadoes, that spring would go on to have 63 tornadoes overall, which is fewer than average. 

In 2008, that year started off very, very slow, but would go on to have over 200 by the end of June. There's just no way to draw conclusions between what's happened so far and what's to come. 

March is coming in - still some snow left

After the kind of January and February that we've been through, I can only guess that the majority of you reading this are done with cold and snow. However, any long time Kansan knows that getting through March with no snow is nearly impossible, but it has happened before. 

See the stats below on the last snowless March:

Average snowfall in March:

• Goodland: 4.8"
• Dodge City: 3.7"
• Wichita: 2.1"

Otherwise, rainfall averages start going back up in March but still come up well shy of what they will be in just a few months. 

March expectations:

I see the month ahead as near or slightly warmer than average overall. Any dip in temperature is not going to be long at all (likely less than 5 days where highs may fall below average). And of course, in March, any cold snap won't be like what we had the two previous months. If we go just off the Arctic Oscillation, we could say March is likely free of any bitter cold air. As long as it remains "positive", our chances of extended cold remain very low. If it goes "negative", we might be more concerned for a cold snap ahead. It doesn't do that until the very end of the month. 

Rainfall - since the weather pattern should remain fairly active through March, there's an opportunity where we could have "average" moisture between the beginning and end of the month. Looking out over the next several weeks, the West coast should continue to be hit with one system after another and I think several of those could reach us in the central US. 

So, more snow in March? I think we will see at least some in Kansas but doubt it will be significant (more than 5/6") on a huge scale. Most of this may be coming in the first few weeks of the new month.

Have a great day!

A February mix coming up

We made it through one of the coldest Januarys on record since the 80s for parts of the state. Up until the last week, some areas were even on track for a "top 10 coldest", but the late month rally knocked us out of that ranking. 

Here's a look at how the month wraps up:

February stats look like this - we gain an hour of daylight by the end of the month!

Early February is marked by tremendous rain/snow for the West - something that never showed up in January. This is the wet season for the West coast, so it's nice to see they will be getting much needed moisture. Low pressure should be fairly persistent in that area of the country and may continue for most of February. 

Most of our models showcase a colder than average mid-February coming up, but definitely NOT the coldest we've had so far this winter. And it's unlikely to stay for more than a week before the warming kicks in again. 

Late February still looks to warm back up from the Plains on south and east. And there will likely be more wet/snowy weather continuing on the West coast. 

I think what's a bit striking are the places that are still waiting on some snow this winter. Yet places like Houston and New Orleans that typically don't get snow have had a fun month.

Overall, I don't see the next 30 days being that significant in terms of rain or snow. We are about to go back through a drier pattern that may continue up until the end of February or early March. I will say, March this year could be interesting. Stay tuned.