More winter or are things thawing?

It's been quite a month of January so far with the cold, ice, blizzard, and snow. This was our concern back when we issued the winter outlook calling for "plenty of cold in January and February". I think what's amazing is how the eastern half of Kansas is experiencing one of the coldest Januarys in years, but western Kansas is not. It is still colder than average, but it's not ranking in the top 15 so far. The shades of green for central Kansas are roughly 10° below average.

We still have plenty of winter and snow before spring arrives, BUT I do think some of the worst of the cold is nearly over with (or will be soon). The Arctic Oscillation is moving back positive and the cold and stormy weather may soon be shifting to the West coast. That would be very helpful for California.

More cold to finish off January:
The pattern through the end of the month still favors colder air out of Canada. It's unlikely to be anything worse than what we've already had, but it also means a late January thaw isn't going to last for  more than a few days before it turns colder. And some snow from early January will remain for a bit longer too.

The beginning of February is still trending cold, but it may not take long to get beyond it and see the milder days taking hold as we approach mid-February:

Perhaps we could have some early spring arriving in mid-late February. Remember how mild December was? That version of the weather pattern may show itself in less than 30 days:

Why have the Santa Ana winds been so bad in California?

Lately, we've had a series of ridges (high pressure) on the West coast that have helped to intensify the stronger winds going into the mountains and valleys just outside of LA. Back in early January, a low pressure that had formed in northern Mexico COMBINED with the high on the West coast to basically super charge the wind - some gusts nearing 100 mph. More recently, the persistent highs have lead to wind gusts more in the 40-60 mph range. Southern California is back in drought with many areas only receiving T-.15" since last July. Can you imagine? This pattern should begin to break at the end of January. 

However, rainfall is nowhere to be found through January 28th.

January outlook - Arctic air returns

I've heard several people talk about the lack of cold in December and how it never really felt like Christmas. We've yet to have Arctic air and most are still waiting on the first measurable snow. The lack of snow isn't anything new for December. After all, some years we are waiting until February or March. 

The month of December winds up much warmer than average from the central Plains westward:

January thoughts:

It continues to look like the cold will start cutting loose and moving south. The question is will Kansas be on the western fringe of the Arctic air or in the middle of it? The first week shows signs of being somewhat "near" normal with highs a mix of 30s and 40s. 

I do think heading toward mid-January, odds are better for our first batch of Arctic air to move south into the Plains. This may hit around the 10th of January and go deep into the South, with most areas east of the Rockies experiencing the coldest air.

The entire month isn't cold though, as late January may have some potential warming once again. That's what you see below.

As far as precipitation goes, January doesn't look like it will be a wet month, but much of the state should get some of its first snows of winter. I'd anticipate near or below average moisture through February 1st. 

January average look like this:

Remember one of the first snow storms in 2024? This system dumped heavy snow on a good portion of Kansas and combined with strong north winds to create blizzard conditions. It shut down many roads especially across western Kansas. Some of the highest totals came out of central Kansas. 

Cold & snow still nowhere to be found

The official first day of winter is fast approaching and with the exception of a couple of decent winter storms, the Plains have been pretty much snow-free. The heavy wet snow that fell on November 8/9 mostly covered Colorado with areas on the High Plains receiving 10-20"+

Now in mid-December, look at how much of the US has no snow on the ground at all (less than 20%), but that's not really a total surprise. Last year at this time, only 16% of the country had snow cover. 

3rd full week of December: Temperatures

It still looks milder overall, meaning highs mainly in the 50s with lows in the 20s. This doesn't mean we could have some snow (especially if it comes overnight), but it wouldn't likely stay for long.

Christmas week:

This is why we have been saying for the past two weeks, no white Christmas. It's just too warm! And there's plenty to go around this year. Even the Dakota are likely to be unseasonably warm. I wouldn't be surprised if we are close to 60° on Christmas Day. This will be a gift for some of you.

Precipitation:

Odds don't appear to be in our favor for much moisture between now and late December. There are smaller systems approaching from the West, but if they are able to generate some rainfall, it will more than likely end up south or east of Kansas. 

Will January turn cold? We mentioned this in our winter forecast that January and February have some strong signals of near or colder than average weather. It still looks like that will happen, but the coldest air may not be at the beginning of January - it may come mid/late month. Northwest wind pattern aloft could put much of the central and northern US in much colder weather.