A February mix coming up

We made it through one of the coldest Januarys on record since the 80s for parts of the state. Up until the last week, some areas were even on track for a "top 10 coldest", but the late month rally knocked us out of that ranking. 

Here's a look at how the month wraps up:

February stats look like this - we gain an hour of daylight by the end of the month!

Early February is marked by tremendous rain/snow for the West - something that never showed up in January. This is the wet season for the West coast, so it's nice to see they will be getting much needed moisture. Low pressure should be fairly persistent in that area of the country and may continue for most of February. 

Most of our models showcase a colder than average mid-February coming up, but definitely NOT the coldest we've had so far this winter. And it's unlikely to stay for more than a week before the warming kicks in again. 

Late February still looks to warm back up from the Plains on south and east. And there will likely be more wet/snowy weather continuing on the West coast. 

I think what's a bit striking are the places that are still waiting on some snow this winter. Yet places like Houston and New Orleans that typically don't get snow have had a fun month.

Overall, I don't see the next 30 days being that significant in terms of rain or snow. We are about to go back through a drier pattern that may continue up until the end of February or early March. I will say, March this year could be interesting. Stay tuned. 

More winter or are things thawing?

It's been quite a month of January so far with the cold, ice, blizzard, and snow. This was our concern back when we issued the winter outlook calling for "plenty of cold in January and February". I think what's amazing is how the eastern half of Kansas is experiencing one of the coldest Januarys in years, but western Kansas is not. It is still colder than average, but it's not ranking in the top 15 so far. The shades of green for central Kansas are roughly 10° below average.

We still have plenty of winter and snow before spring arrives, BUT I do think some of the worst of the cold is nearly over with (or will be soon). The Arctic Oscillation is moving back positive and the cold and stormy weather may soon be shifting to the West coast. That would be very helpful for California.

More cold to finish off January:
The pattern through the end of the month still favors colder air out of Canada. It's unlikely to be anything worse than what we've already had, but it also means a late January thaw isn't going to last for  more than a few days before it turns colder. And some snow from early January will remain for a bit longer too.

The beginning of February is still trending cold, but it may not take long to get beyond it and see the milder days taking hold as we approach mid-February:

Perhaps we could have some early spring arriving in mid-late February. Remember how mild December was? That version of the weather pattern may show itself in less than 30 days:

Why have the Santa Ana winds been so bad in California?

Lately, we've had a series of ridges (high pressure) on the West coast that have helped to intensify the stronger winds going into the mountains and valleys just outside of LA. Back in early January, a low pressure that had formed in northern Mexico COMBINED with the high on the West coast to basically super charge the wind - some gusts nearing 100 mph. More recently, the persistent highs have lead to wind gusts more in the 40-60 mph range. Southern California is back in drought with many areas only receiving T-.15" since last July. Can you imagine? This pattern should begin to break at the end of January. 

However, rainfall is nowhere to be found through January 28th.

January outlook - Arctic air returns

I've heard several people talk about the lack of cold in December and how it never really felt like Christmas. We've yet to have Arctic air and most are still waiting on the first measurable snow. The lack of snow isn't anything new for December. After all, some years we are waiting until February or March. 

The month of December winds up much warmer than average from the central Plains westward:

January thoughts:

It continues to look like the cold will start cutting loose and moving south. The question is will Kansas be on the western fringe of the Arctic air or in the middle of it? The first week shows signs of being somewhat "near" normal with highs a mix of 30s and 40s. 

I do think heading toward mid-January, odds are better for our first batch of Arctic air to move south into the Plains. This may hit around the 10th of January and go deep into the South, with most areas east of the Rockies experiencing the coldest air.

The entire month isn't cold though, as late January may have some potential warming once again. That's what you see below.

As far as precipitation goes, January doesn't look like it will be a wet month, but much of the state should get some of its first snows of winter. I'd anticipate near or below average moisture through February 1st. 

January average look like this:

Remember one of the first snow storms in 2024? This system dumped heavy snow on a good portion of Kansas and combined with strong north winds to create blizzard conditions. It shut down many roads especially across western Kansas. Some of the highest totals came out of central Kansas.