Here we are waiting on rain... again

We did get some welcome rainfall to kick off the month of April, but suddenly, the waiting game is back on. How long will it be? The short answer is it could be late April before we see any decent, widespread chances returning. What makes this even more frustrating is watching the huge surplus of moisture continue to go south and east of Kansas - exactly the kind of rain we need to fill lakes and farm ponds.

There is a western system that is coming in around April 13/14: Expectations are low for rain

I don't have much hope on this bringing much moisture. It appears it will be another cold front that comes through with little to no widespread rain for Kansas. 

And then as we approach the start of the week April 21st, once again, high pressure "ridging" takes over areas from the Rockies westward. Again, not favorable for good rainfall in the central Plains. Upper level winds from the northwest are detrimental because most of the time the rich humidity gets pushed too far east of Kansas.

Here's the rainfall forecast (7 day compared to average) around April 15th: again, wish we had something different to display here.

However, late April looks more encouraging, but it may only be parts of the region that turn out "wetter" than average. This is the 7 day rainfall compared to average around April 30th.

All of this to say that I don't think we are moving into a wet period at all in the coming weeks. Based on the emails and messages I'm getting, several of you are fed up with drought. And sometimes it feels like we keep promising something just "8-10 days" out. Patterns are sometimes really, really hard to break out of, and as most of us are finding out in real-time, this one is no different. 

I will say this - most models going into summer don't show extreme heat. If we go into summer drier than normal (and that's my expectation), there's reason to be concerned that we "fry". However, I'm not entirely convinced that we are going down that road just yet. While there will be plenty of hot days, it may not be that rough.

Tornado count:

It has really exploded in recent weeks. As of April 3rd, we are now experiencing one of the busiest starts to the season since 2010. Note the graph below. The red line is the trend for 2025, while the solid black line represents the "average" throughout the year. 

Another chilly snap might be coming, but rain....?

We've had our fair share of wind this month of March. Living in the Plains, we are accustomed to some wind, but gusts over 65 and 70 mph pushes the threshold of what most of us consider acceptable. Take a look at these March calendars of wind gusts:

Hays:

Dodge City:

Wichita:

The reason why it's been so dang windy is just how intense the low pressure systems have been coming out of the West. They are reaching their peak strength here in the Plains, with atmospheric pressure dropping almost as low as what you'd find in hurricanes. It's a little unusual to see a barometer reading get down to around 28" of mercury in Kansas, but when you do, you can guarantee the wind will be quite intense. 

Are we done with the cold?

I still think another stretch of chilly weather may be coming in the first half of April. Why? Well, we again look to the Arctic Oscillation and it has gone negative. This time of the year, a cold snap would likely be highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s, but I would be prepared for the second week in April to trend cooler than average. 

This doesn't always mean it will get colder, but it's something we'll be watching, and early spring gardeners should be on the lookout. This is what the temperature map looks like for mid April (compared to average):

April rainfall isn't looking spectacular at this point. I think will be some rain at the beginning of the month, and then again late in the month, but mid-April looks dry. Of course, we could get lucky and end up under a slow moving thunderstorm that drops some beneficial rain, but that wouldn't show up in our data right now. 

Tornado count in Kansas remains at zero right now, but nationally it has been increasing rapidly. It doesn't indicate one way or the other how the upcoming storm season will go in the Plains. Look back at the last 10 years of data and see that the first three months of the year tend to be very quiet with respect to tornadoes. Even in 2017 when we had just over 10 tornadoes, that spring would go on to have 63 tornadoes overall, which is fewer than average. 

In 2008, that year started off very, very slow, but would go on to have over 200 by the end of June. There's just no way to draw conclusions between what's happened so far and what's to come. 

March is coming in - still some snow left

After the kind of January and February that we've been through, I can only guess that the majority of you reading this are done with cold and snow. However, any long time Kansan knows that getting through March with no snow is nearly impossible, but it has happened before. 

See the stats below on the last snowless March:

Average snowfall in March:

• Goodland: 4.8"
• Dodge City: 3.7"
• Wichita: 2.1"

Otherwise, rainfall averages start going back up in March but still come up well shy of what they will be in just a few months. 

March expectations:

I see the month ahead as near or slightly warmer than average overall. Any dip in temperature is not going to be long at all (likely less than 5 days where highs may fall below average). And of course, in March, any cold snap won't be like what we had the two previous months. If we go just off the Arctic Oscillation, we could say March is likely free of any bitter cold air. As long as it remains "positive", our chances of extended cold remain very low. If it goes "negative", we might be more concerned for a cold snap ahead. It doesn't do that until the very end of the month. 

Rainfall - since the weather pattern should remain fairly active through March, there's an opportunity where we could have "average" moisture between the beginning and end of the month. Looking out over the next several weeks, the West coast should continue to be hit with one system after another and I think several of those could reach us in the central US. 

So, more snow in March? I think we will see at least some in Kansas but doubt it will be significant (more than 5/6") on a huge scale. Most of this may be coming in the first few weeks of the new month.

Have a great day!