Our weather should get more interesting soon

An extremely boring stretch of weather for Kansas might be coming to a close soon, but is the excitement going to be on big temperatures changes, or rain? Maybe both?

We are hitting the three-week mark (consecutive days) with no rain. Historically, we've had some very long periods with no rain in the fall season (September 1 - November 30). In fact, just last year we had some notable stretches with no moisture. 

• Dodge City - 38 days in a row, no rain Oct. 4-Nov 10
• Wichita - 20 days
• Goodland - 31 days (no rain at all in September)

The most days-in-a-row for no rain at all in the fall season is closer to 50 and 60 days (see the image below). We aren't even close to that & hopefully won't be anytime soon.

Is the rain coming? There hasn't been anything even close to our area for weeks now, which isn't surprising. Back when we put out the October outlook, we suggested the first half of the month would be dry as a bone.

Note that the weekend of October 18/19/20, we finally see a system coming out of the West. There is a noticeable buckle in the jet stream (low pressure). It would be better if that thing set up farther south (it would mean more rain for KS), but as it looks now, it should still be enough to get the chances for moisture back over the Plains states.

What's of interest moving into late October and early November is that some of our data suggests a stronger likelihood of low pressure setting up across the West (a trough). That's what we will need to set things in motion for more timely rains. We don't want to see this go north of Kansas, otherwise we could get missed on the rain once again. 

And early November may have some rain potential too with a series of weak low-pressure systems out of the West.

While I'm not promising huge amounts of rain, the 30/45-day outlook through November 18th looks like central and eastern Kansas may be the favored areas for better moisture. 

For what it's worth, one model is showing anywhere from an inch to possibly 3 inches of rain (total) through mid-November. These longer range projections are difficult to put a lot of extra merit into, but when you have several different sets of data showing similar conditions and outcomes, there has to be some value in passing this along. 

Have a great day!

Here we go again & talking October frost

The map below sums up everything you need to know about our weather in the short term. Dry dry dry! Gee, haven't we had enough of long stretches without rain? It's becoming the hallmark of Kansas weather lately - a little rain and then a month without it. This is a forecast for rain through October 5th:

It's really not uncommon to have long, dry spells in the winter because the humidity is very low. I was surprised to see Dodge City had their longest stretch with no measurable rain in April and early May of this year. 

The overall pattern won't be much help for generating beneficial moisture for the central Plains. What will be most common through the first 10-12 days of the new month is a ridge of high pressure over the Rockies that will keep the weather in Kansas very quiet. (and warm too)

Take note of the image below for October 10th - what do we see? Once again, it's high pressure dominant for the central Plains which is not going to be good for generating widespread rains.

It could be that we wait until later in October for our weather to get more interesting. Most models start showing low pressure in the western US that could be better rain makers. 

I just don't see any way that October is a change from the dry weather patterns. The month as a whole will more than likely be below average on rainfall. 

Here are the October average for different locations in Kansas. Overall, daylight and temperatures keep going down

And in case you are wondering, the average first fall frost in western Kansas tends to happen in early October, but given the warmth that we are seeing across the board, it's very doubtful that we would have an early one this year. 

A missed opportunity but some rain is coming

It was quite discouraging to watch Francine develop in the western Gulf of Mexico and then suddenly turn northeast - taking it out of the running for Kansas pretty quickly. I don't know what the exact percentage is of western Gulf storms that impact our area, but it's very low (under 10%). As recently as 2015, tropical storm Bill developed in the western Gulf and then tracked across Texas and Oklahoma. This is about as close as we've come to a tropical system lately. 

All of the heavy rain remained southeast of Kansas, but it was much closer to Kansas than Francine will be.

Even though we aren't getting the rain we need right now, you have to be glad we aren't experiencing the heat wave record that Phoenix is setting this summer. The current streak is 108 consecutive days of 100°, beating the old record of 76 days. It's hard to wrap your mind around the idea that 100 degree weather has happened every single day since May 27. I'd be packing my bag and moving. 

Everyone says "but it's a dry heat". That's a fact, but a prolonged spell like that takes its toll on literally everything and is often quite deadly. It will finally end next week (3rd full week of September) This is directly tied to the pattern change we will see coming into the central Plains too.

Rain potential increasing:

The next 2-3 weeks should be helpful for Kansas in getting some rain here at home. The 3rd full week of September will be characterized by a large low pressure system in the western US and much higher humidity than we've had recently. It's quite possible this system will come at us in different chunks (or waves). Odds are slightly better for central and western Kansas to get the heavier rainfall, but I would think everyone in Kansas should get something in the next wave of active weather. 

Here's the 5 day rainfall outlook (compared to average) for the 3rd week of the month:

And here's the last week of September (again rainfall compared to average):

Meteorologists in Kansas will also talk of a "second season" of severe weather. Take a look at Storm Prediction Center's "severe weather probabilities" for mid-September. Even though there's not a bullseye, it's not uncommon to have severe storms as the jet stream begins to strengthen heading into fall. 

Early frost this year?

I don't think that's likely to happen. October is showing signs of near or warmer than average, so the upcoming patterns don't strike me as having an early frost. Here's the overall outlook for much of October.

I stumbled on this graphic the other day. It's the last 365 days of rain (compared to normal) and you can clearly see who's been getting good rains and the areas left out. It's interesting just how spotty the "better" rainfall has been.