Here comes the rain - November outlook

A few weeks back, I had posted some images showing how the upcoming 30 days were looking much better for rainfall. I know it was most likely met with some doubt and who could blame you because it seems like the rain has found every path around Kansas possible. 

Take a look at the rainfall forecast through November 7th:

A very generous swath of rainfall should setup from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes, and if the amounts shown on the map verify, it would make the beginning of November MUCH wetter than average (been awhile since we could say that). Western Kansas should get some rain, but amounts will generally be lower with this batch of active weather coming.

What's interesting to see is that the active pattern may continue on for a few more weeks into November. Without getting deep into the meteorological weeds (it can be confusing), we see strong support toward a busy weather pattern deep into November too. This would likely yield low pressure after low pressure tracking across the western US and into the Plains. It's certainly not a guarantee that each one will bring rain, but compared to what we've had lately, this is an improvement. If the systems track near or north of Kansas, our chances for rain and snow will be diminished. If they end up going farther south (like the current one is doing), odds are we will have more favorable moisture. 

Here's the setup as we move into mid-November (week of Nov. 18):

The favored area for low pressure will be across the western US, which gives some optimism that the active weather will continue to move this way and bring potential of rain (again, not necessarily a guarantee). These patterns that I'm showing you don't give us much detail, but rather unlock some clues as to where the large scale highs and lows will form.

Week of Thanksgiving (Nov. 25):

Once again, a favored spot for low pressure will be in the western US. Does this mean we will have a stormy setup for holiday travel? Possible, but specifics won't be known for weeks, but maybe we'll have some moisture coming through the region around the holiday. 

What I don't expect to see is a cold November. Most models suggest that any blast of chilly weather is brief, and overall, the month as a whole is likely above average. 

November normals look like this:

If you are interested, here's a quick preview of December moisture (compared to average). Remember that for most of Kansas, average moisture is only around .75-1.5" (lowest in western Kansas and higher farther east).

Thanks for reading!

What's with the drought map & a look ahead

When the drought map comes out on Thursdays, our team is quick to publish it in many spots (our Storm Team 12 app, Facebook, X, website, and of course all over TV). Since we aren't getting out of drought anytime soon, I thought it was important to address a question that keeps coming up:

Why doesn't the drought map look worse when we are 9-10" below on rainfall? Or, Why doesn't the map represent my area differently?

I wish I had a good, concrete answer for this, but the latest map does leave me a little confused too. I believe the biggest reason the map doesn't show "severe" or "extreme" for south central is because our vegetation health improved a bit after the late September moisture (remember much of central and southern Kansas had .5-1"). Our evaporation rates have slowed lately because of the cooler weather, which might also explain why conditions aren't displayed differently.

Here's what we know about each drought map that is released:

• The weekly cutoff for rain is Tuesday morning (any rain on a Wed/Thu) is not considered
• It always looks back in time - it's not a forecast for anything incoming
• It almost never shows worsening drought by more than one category per week. However, conditions can improve by more than one category if enough rain falls.

Each weekly map builds off the previous week, so in most cases, you probably won't see huge changes week-after-week (again, unless there is major rainfall that occurs). The drought map is NOT a model, but rather a blend of three important factors (which you can actually be a part of - read on):

• Impacts - (agriculture, wildlife, land use, etc)
• Feedback from local experts
• Physical data at different time scales - (winter vs summer, fall vs spring)

Other inputs include streamflow, reservoir levels, evaporative demand, temperatures, and vegetation health. Most of us look strictly at rainfall numbers, but there isn't just one piece of this that tells the whole story.

If you'd like to submit photos and input to the drought map authors, you can do so by emailing: droughtmonitor@unl.edu

What's next??

My last update suggested the upcoming 30-45 days were encouraging. I still feel that way about the period between Halloween and Thanksgiving. Most models indicate better potential of low-pressure systems coming into the western US, which would at least yield rain chances (something we haven't had much of at all lately). Over the past month, it's not that we are getting missed by the rain - there just hasn't been any rain to forecast. I'm not making promises that drought improves drastically, but it would be nice to just get some rain again, and I think those chances could be more timely moving into November. Be sure to check back. 

Thanks for reading!

Our weather should get more interesting soon

An extremely boring stretch of weather for Kansas might be coming to a close soon, but is the excitement going to be on big temperatures changes, or rain? Maybe both?

We are hitting the three-week mark (consecutive days) with no rain. Historically, we've had some very long periods with no rain in the fall season (September 1 - November 30). In fact, just last year we had some notable stretches with no moisture. 

• Dodge City - 38 days in a row, no rain Oct. 4-Nov 10
• Wichita - 20 days
• Goodland - 31 days (no rain at all in September)

The most days-in-a-row for no rain at all in the fall season is closer to 50 and 60 days (see the image below). We aren't even close to that & hopefully won't be anytime soon.

Is the rain coming? There hasn't been anything even close to our area for weeks now, which isn't surprising. Back when we put out the October outlook, we suggested the first half of the month would be dry as a bone.

Note that the weekend of October 18/19/20, we finally see a system coming out of the West. There is a noticeable buckle in the jet stream (low pressure). It would be better if that thing set up farther south (it would mean more rain for KS), but as it looks now, it should still be enough to get the chances for moisture back over the Plains states.

What's of interest moving into late October and early November is that some of our data suggests a stronger likelihood of low pressure setting up across the West (a trough). That's what we will need to set things in motion for more timely rains. We don't want to see this go north of Kansas, otherwise we could get missed on the rain once again. 

And early November may have some rain potential too with a series of weak low-pressure systems out of the West.

While I'm not promising huge amounts of rain, the 30/45-day outlook through November 18th looks like central and eastern Kansas may be the favored areas for better moisture. 

For what it's worth, one model is showing anywhere from an inch to possibly 3 inches of rain (total) through mid-November. These longer range projections are difficult to put a lot of extra merit into, but when you have several different sets of data showing similar conditions and outcomes, there has to be some value in passing this along. 

Have a great day!