Cold & snow still nowhere to be found

The official first day of winter is fast approaching and with the exception of a couple of decent winter storms, the Plains have been pretty much snow-free. The heavy wet snow that fell on November 8/9 mostly covered Colorado with areas on the High Plains receiving 10-20"+

Now in mid-December, look at how much of the US has no snow on the ground at all (less than 20%), but that's not really a total surprise. Last year at this time, only 16% of the country had snow cover. 

3rd full week of December: Temperatures

It still looks milder overall, meaning highs mainly in the 50s with lows in the 20s. This doesn't mean we could have some snow (especially if it comes overnight), but it wouldn't likely stay for long.

Christmas week:

This is why we have been saying for the past two weeks, no white Christmas. It's just too warm! And there's plenty to go around this year. Even the Dakota are likely to be unseasonably warm. I wouldn't be surprised if we are close to 60° on Christmas Day. This will be a gift for some of you.

Precipitation:

Odds don't appear to be in our favor for much moisture between now and late December. There are smaller systems approaching from the West, but if they are able to generate some rainfall, it will more than likely end up south or east of Kansas. 

Will January turn cold? We mentioned this in our winter forecast that January and February have some strong signals of near or colder than average weather. It still looks like that will happen, but the coldest air may not be at the beginning of January - it may come mid/late month. Northwest wind pattern aloft could put much of the central and northern US in much colder weather. 

Winter forecast 2024-25

It might be the least favorite season for many of you, but we know winter is coming and each year, we put together some thoughts about what we are seeing for the months ahead. Each member of Storm Team 12 has made a forecast for snowfall (from first flake to last) - including May (but hers is more for entertainment)

What is "average" snowfall for Kansas? You might be surprised at how much it varies around the state:

• South central: 12.7"
• Dodge City: 19.1"
• Goodland: 30"
• Concordia: 19.3"

The most interesting thing to me is how wet the month of November was for the central US and Kansas, more specifically. Right after Halloween, we had a surplus of rain that arrived with three back-to-back large scale systems that came from the Southwest. The maps below show the observed amounts for Kansas and the region.

We had the wettest November on record even before getting 2/3 of the way through the month. It's entirely possible that kind of setup will show up again before spring arrives, but will it be more heavy rainfall or heavy snow?

You can also bet a northwest wind pattern aloft (which is what Kansas has been in for late November and early December) will result in some big Arctic blasts for January and February. I'm not convinced the remainder of December will have much for prolonged cold (basically it's a few days of it and then it warms up again). But with a weak La Nina influencing the winter pattern, a typical northwest flow of the jet stream is common. It's likely going to result in some really cold air for the eastern half of the country. 

Another way to unlock some clues for the upcoming season is looking at ocean temperatures. Some of the key regions seem to be similar to 2013, but one area that is drastically different is the Gulf of Mexico. I don't know how a VERY warm Gulf impacts our winter snow and rain, but this will be something to watch. Does the warm water keep us from getting more snow? Does this lead to a very wet winter or are the three months ahead dry? We will all know soon enough.

I will say that weak La Nina patterns, by themselves, don't often yield big snows for Kansas. More than 85% of the years we looked at with La Nina, snowfall tends to be below average. And some of those years had REALLY wet fall seasons too (take 1985 for example - Over 13" of rain in the fall, and then the winter had 10.5" of snow)

I love the challenge that comes with trying to understand what the upcoming season has in store. We have so many variables to consider, and every meteorologist will try to find a single "smoking gun" for a nod to what the season has in store, but that just doesn't exist. We will continue to look at what we have and give you the earliest "heads up" when we see something coming in that might be disruptive. In the meantime, it's very quiet and will be for awhile.

Thanks for reading!

Late November/early December thoughts

This remarkable shift toward wetter weather has been a welcome change. I even chatted with one rancher recently who expressed his desire to briefly pause the rain because he was fighting the mud. While some might have that same feeling, we don't want the moisture to stay away for too long. It would be nice to put some more water back in ponds/lakes - the drought is far from over. 

What's next for Kansas? There's good agreement that colder weather is coming for the end of November and early December, but it doesn't look to stay for too long. 

Once the first full week of December rolls around (9th-14th), we are likely seeing the coldest air go east. 

As for precipitation, December isn't going to be like November. It will be near or drier than average from what I can tell. We may have a bunch of smaller scale systems coming through, which could provide small amounts of rainfall (and some snow), but I think our big systems out of the West have ended for now. They will more than likely be back at a later time.  

When it comes to snow, December is (on average) our first chances of 1" or more in most areas. If you want to believe the map below, over the 30 days period (ending on December 30), much of the state would have anywhere from 2-5" - which isn't much when spread over a month. 

Historical Thanksgiving stats for Wichita and Dodge City:

Have a terrific holiday!