A price to be paid for the warm

Winter storm update: All snow for Friday and Saturday, and when melted down, here's the liquid content of it all. It's not going to be the classic 10 inches of snow to 1" of rain - the air is much colder for this go around. 

Snowfall numbers coming soon, but here's what we have so far:

And be glad we aren't getting what the southern Plains will get - MAJOR ice!

The cold is finally showing up - now past the halfway mark in meteorological winter. Recent forecasts seem to be getting met with some serious unhappiness, but after so much warm in December and the first half of January, this probably isn't a surprise for some of you. 

Here's how January temperatures have looked so far: 

January: Much of the country is warmer than average, with some of the warmest from Kansas to the northern Rockies. 

Some of the driest areas of Kansas continue to be in the northwest and across southern Kansas, as this winter hasn't been very productive in precipitation. (this is since Dec. 1st)

And snowfall for the winter season looks like this - well below average for most of the region:

Coldest air of the season coming soon - it won't be the last either.

Kansas has primarily been on the western edge of most of the Arctic air this winter, but that probably won't be the case moving through late January. The West coast is back in the drier pattern with a big-time high-pressure ridge favored there. East of that ridge is where the bitter cold will be cutting loose.

Very late in January, expect it to be warming back up though as low pressure pulls away to the east and high pressure starts to expand across the West. This will likely result in dry weather to end January and highs that will trend back above average.

Another blast of Arctic air could be coming in February:

If high pressure pulls back toward Alaska (their weather gets warmer and calmer), that will allow for the bitter cold to surge back south across the middle of the US. This kind of setup would likely be mostly dry, but we'll see how it all comes together. 

Have a great day and thanks for reading!

January cold is gearing up

It should come as no surprise that much of the state is still waiting on its first 1" of snow for the winter, but that's not close to any kind of record. In fact, last winter our first significant snow for most of Kansas came on January 5th. It was after some freezing rain and ice buildup in central and eastern Kansas. Records for the "latest first 1" of snow" actually go clear into March, so we have a long way to go before that is threatened. 

December is wrapping up as a top 10 warmest for western Kansas (where the average temperature was 5-10° above the normal), but it wasn't quite as warm farther east. The cold weather that hit early in the month offset so much of the record heat during Christmas week.

Colder & longer periods of cold are coming:

It's interesting because when Alaska is bitter cold, the western half of the United States is milder. However, when high pressure (ridging) starts to develop near or over Alaska, we usually start to see the bitter cold diving farther south. 

Here are a couple of examples: January 4th you can see the low pressure favored areas (blue colors) along the West coast and right up into Alaska. Kansas and much of the Plains are warm at that time with high pressure over the region. 

Note - January 14th. There's a reversal. When high pressure "ridging" returns to Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest, much colder air should drop south right into the areas east of the Rockies. The blue colors over the Great Lakes and just east of Kansas represent a cold pattern that's more than likely taking hold BEFORE we get to mid-January. This will likely be Arctic air.

December didn't have much to pick from with moisture - some light snow at the very beginning of the month, and then a dusting on December 28/29. The last good soaking of rainfall was back in late November - just prior to Thanksgiving. 

January Temperature:

Here's the map - looks like a near "normal" month ahead where the cold snaps will be balanced out by warmer stretches of weather. It's entirely possible all the mild weather to kick off January will be wiped out by much colder air mid-late month. It will turn much colder before we know it. 

Precip:

There will be a couple of storm systems coming from the West as we approach mid-January. Look for the month to have more precipitation than December, but that may not be saying much considering how dry it was in the previous 30 days. We will get some snow, but I don't think it will be anything significant. 

Happy New Year!

Changes coming, but we still have time

The winter solstice is on December 21st at 9:03am, and we've already released our winter forecast, which was met with some interesting feedback. Some of you hate the cold and snow, while others don't mind it around Christmas time, but then after the holiday, you want sunshine and 60s/70s. 

Lately, it seems like all of the snow is hanging around the Great Lakes, upper Midwest, and northern Plains. Just take a look at how much snow has already fallen for those locations:

This is classic La Nina in wintertime - basically cold and wet across the northern tier of the US, but the southern Plains is dry and warm. It won't be this way all winter long, but as evidenced lately, there will be some very lengthy periods that are pretty quiet for Kansas. 

What's next:

Still looks rather warm overall through Christmas as the main jet stream winds come straight in from the west or northwest. As we've seen lately, Kansas is the battleground for the warm and cold, but what seems to be winning on most days is the milder air.

Keep an eye on the period around New Years and right after because we should start seeing much colder air taking over across the Plains states and the northern tier of the US. That's when we see the Arctic Oscillation going "negative", which usually allows for much colder air to break off from the Canadian provinces and settle farther south. However, it also looks like the high pressure (ridge) over the western US starts to weaken, allowing for some very wet/snowy setups over the western 1/3 of the nation.

I know some of the images we post can be a little "in the weeds" or confusing, but overall, our message for winter hasn't changed. Still looks like we have a fair amount of mild before any prolonged period of cold. And moisture will return too, but it may not happen on a larger scale until we approach the new year and get started with 2026.