The active/rainy pattern continues

We're getting a bit of a pause this week in the rain, but the active pattern returns for our 3rd full week of November. We've made some inroads in pushing back on ongoing drought conditions, but since we were so far behind on rainfall, more will be needed This month has already been historic in terms of rainfall (top 5 wettest for many), and more rain is coming soon.

Here's the preview:

There may be two separate rounds coming across the area, one happening on Monday and then we'll see if a more potent system arrives on Wednesday (Nov. 20th)

And it will also be colder for the 3rd week of November. I would anticipate highs in the 30s/40s, with lows dipping back below freezing:

 

Week of Thanksgiving:

We could potentially have active weather during the holiday week. Please check back for more updates, but for now, look at the images below. One is Sunday, the other is Tuesday, and if they become reality, we may very well have rain and snow potential coming across the central Plains. Lately, we've had several desert Southwest systems, and those have been quite productive for us. It may continue into the holiday week and beyond. We don't know yet how soon it will end, but I do expect a return of western US high pressure, which will bring about a stretch of drier weather.

There's going to be some colder weather at the start of the holiday week, but it may be warming back up in time for Thanksgiving Day. Overall, the holiday week looks near "normal" for temperatures. 

November meteor shower:

The Leonids will peak on November 16/17. Remember, with these celestial events, there's not much to remember about viewing other than finding the darkest spot available to you. We will have an almost full moon, which will make viewing a bit more challenging. However, with a favorable forecast, you might be inclined to check it out.

Here comes the rain - November outlook

A few weeks back, I had posted some images showing how the upcoming 30 days were looking much better for rainfall. I know it was most likely met with some doubt and who could blame you because it seems like the rain has found every path around Kansas possible. 

Take a look at the rainfall forecast through November 7th:

A very generous swath of rainfall should setup from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes, and if the amounts shown on the map verify, it would make the beginning of November MUCH wetter than average (been awhile since we could say that). Western Kansas should get some rain, but amounts will generally be lower with this batch of active weather coming.

What's interesting to see is that the active pattern may continue on for a few more weeks into November. Without getting deep into the meteorological weeds (it can be confusing), we see strong support toward a busy weather pattern deep into November too. This would likely yield low pressure after low pressure tracking across the western US and into the Plains. It's certainly not a guarantee that each one will bring rain, but compared to what we've had lately, this is an improvement. If the systems track near or north of Kansas, our chances for rain and snow will be diminished. If they end up going farther south (like the current one is doing), odds are we will have more favorable moisture. 

Here's the setup as we move into mid-November (week of Nov. 18):

The favored area for low pressure will be across the western US, which gives some optimism that the active weather will continue to move this way and bring potential of rain (again, not necessarily a guarantee). These patterns that I'm showing you don't give us much detail, but rather unlock some clues as to where the large scale highs and lows will form.

Week of Thanksgiving (Nov. 25):

Once again, a favored spot for low pressure will be in the western US. Does this mean we will have a stormy setup for holiday travel? Possible, but specifics won't be known for weeks, but maybe we'll have some moisture coming through the region around the holiday. 

What I don't expect to see is a cold November. Most models suggest that any blast of chilly weather is brief, and overall, the month as a whole is likely above average. 

November normals look like this:

If you are interested, here's a quick preview of December moisture (compared to average). Remember that for most of Kansas, average moisture is only around .75-1.5" (lowest in western Kansas and higher farther east).

Thanks for reading!

What's with the drought map & a look ahead

When the drought map comes out on Thursdays, our team is quick to publish it in many spots (our Storm Team 12 app, Facebook, X, website, and of course all over TV). Since we aren't getting out of drought anytime soon, I thought it was important to address a question that keeps coming up:

Why doesn't the drought map look worse when we are 9-10" below on rainfall? Or, Why doesn't the map represent my area differently?

I wish I had a good, concrete answer for this, but the latest map does leave me a little confused too. I believe the biggest reason the map doesn't show "severe" or "extreme" for south central is because our vegetation health improved a bit after the late September moisture (remember much of central and southern Kansas had .5-1"). Our evaporation rates have slowed lately because of the cooler weather, which might also explain why conditions aren't displayed differently.

Here's what we know about each drought map that is released:

• The weekly cutoff for rain is Tuesday morning (any rain on a Wed/Thu) is not considered
• It always looks back in time - it's not a forecast for anything incoming
• It almost never shows worsening drought by more than one category per week. However, conditions can improve by more than one category if enough rain falls.

Each weekly map builds off the previous week, so in most cases, you probably won't see huge changes week-after-week (again, unless there is major rainfall that occurs). The drought map is NOT a model, but rather a blend of three important factors (which you can actually be a part of - read on):

• Impacts - (agriculture, wildlife, land use, etc)
• Feedback from local experts
• Physical data at different time scales - (winter vs summer, fall vs spring)

Other inputs include streamflow, reservoir levels, evaporative demand, temperatures, and vegetation health. Most of us look strictly at rainfall numbers, but there isn't just one piece of this that tells the whole story.

If you'd like to submit photos and input to the drought map authors, you can do so by emailing: droughtmonitor@unl.edu

What's next??

My last update suggested the upcoming 30-45 days were encouraging. I still feel that way about the period between Halloween and Thanksgiving. Most models indicate better potential of low-pressure systems coming into the western US, which would at least yield rain chances (something we haven't had much of at all lately). Over the past month, it's not that we are getting missed by the rain - there just hasn't been any rain to forecast. I'm not making promises that drought improves drastically, but it would be nice to just get some rain again, and I think those chances could be more timely moving into November. Be sure to check back. 

Thanks for reading!