First big winter storm

What a weekend! I posted a blog entry on Friday discussing the challenges that come with forecasting snow accumulation. This storm definitely tested our patience, just waiting around for the ice to turn to snow. I don't think any of the meteorologists involved in the forecasting process thought we would see 12 inch amounts, but all it takes is one heavy band to setup over an area for a few hours and you get some amazing amounts. So now that we know how everything ended up, take a look at how the computer models performed. One computer model had the right idea, while another was off completely. Our initial forecast was very good with the right idea of the heavier snow being in central Kansas, but we didn't think there would be over 12 inches of snow. Crazy.

The satellite picture from outer space Sunday afternoon clearly defines the "snow vs. no snow" line. Isn't it amazing. Sometimes 10-15 miles makes all the difference from snow to no snow. I love the winter forecasting challenge. It can be quite frustrating, but honestly, if I were to leave Kansas for a warmer climate, I would miss these fascinating winter storms.

While our chances of having a white Christmas may only be 10-20% in any given year, this year... some finally get their wish. Have a Merry Christmas.

Snow forecasting challenges

This may help explain why forecasting snow is extremely challenging. If you are a weather enthusiast, you probably already know that if the storm changes path even by 15 or 20 miles, it can make all the difference in the world with regards to where the heaviest accumulation will setup. 

Here is an example heading into this first big snow event of the winter season. One forecast model shown on the left , known as the NAM (North American Model), shows the heaviest snow staying south of Hwy 54 (click for larger image). The other, GFS (Global Forecast Systems) shows the higher amounts in central and eastern Kansas. So how do we make our prediction? We try to understand which model is doing the best job at the current time and base our forecast off of it and we have a few other models to try and help us figure out what's going to take place. We have other sets of data we can look at too, but I always tell people that figuring out snow accumulation is probably the hardest task we do as meteorologists. What's the second hardest? Probably swallowing a bad forecast... but fortunately we don't have too many of those. =)

Have a great weekend and be safe.

 

Dreaming of a White Christmas?

This is an exciting time of the year (if you've been good of course) and leading up to Christmas, several of you have asked about a white Christmas. Our chances in any given year are very low (between 10-20%), so maybe that's why the song says "dreaming" because it just doesn't happen that often.

So what does the weather look like leading up to Christmas? It's beginning to look like there could be two more storms coming through between now and Christmas night. Timing of precipitation is always a challenge when looking out several days, but one of the computer models that's more reliable in the extended period shows one system close by next weekend (Dec. 21) and perhaps another system on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. So as we continue in an active cycle of the weather pattern, we will have to see what kind of moisture is available and how cold the atmosphere will be when the systems approach. I have to say, if the atmosphere is a little colder heading into next weekend, I'd say areas just south of Kansas could be in for another major ice event. But Kansas would probably be just on the northern fringe of it, with maybe some light precipitation.

Forecast for Sunday 6 a.m. Dec. 22

Changing pattern ahead

After a week of below freezing temperatures, the weather pattern begins to change again this week. Milder air starts pushing back toward the central US as the bitter cold will finally retreat to the northeast. What an amazing week with icy conditions to our south, major snow over the Rockies, and it was one of the coldest starts to December ever on record. The pattern changes back to a milder/less active one for a little while. I expect it may be that way leading up to Christmas week.

We've had a bunch of cool pictures trickle in over the last few days with the blast of winter weather (click on the pictures to make them larger). Ice crystals high up in the atmosphere align after a snow event in northern Kansas Sunday to create a sun pillar. It looks like a fire ball dropping in the western sky. Maybe you've heard of a sun dog. That's when you have the sliver of light on either the left or right side of the sun. And then we received another picture from Russell showing a pile of snowflakes that looked like a Christmas tree. One final flake on top of the pile made it appear as if the "tree" had a topper. We appreciate all of the pictures and reports because it gives us a better idea of what is really happening across the area. There's no substitute for reliable ground truth. Have a great week.

 

 



Another cold blast coming

Here we are at the start of a new month, new week, and coming off of a long holiday weekend when the weather was about as nice as you can expect for December. The cold weather doesn't bother me too much, and I enjoy a good snow event, but when the temperatures climb into the 60s and the winds are light, life is pretty good.

We are waiting on another big blast of cold air and it's going to be around for quite a few days. The difficult task this week is figuring out exactly when the front arrives, but for most of us, we probably won't notice the drastic change until Wednesday. You can see on the map all of the cold air plunging south through the western US. It will be some of the coldest air yet this season. It will be cold enough for snow, but we are not forecasting any ice or big snow accumulations yet. We will have to watch the following week to see if something can develop out of this active pattern.

Millie and I visited Heartspring Saturday night. They have their "Lights on the Lake" going on right now and it was spectacular to drive through and see all of the decorations. Santa was there visiting with the kids, and of course, they had refreshments. So where does Millie like to hang out? Yep, right below the Christmas cookie table, just magically hoping for an accidental drop. Her face and those ears are hard to resist, but if I gave in every time Millie wanted a snack, she would be in a world of hurt. The nice weather has allowed us to spend more time hiking around and burning off the extra holiday calories. Have a great week.

Holiday travel weather

Huge snowfall amounts from southwest Oklahoma over the weekend. Some areas picked up more snow in one weekend than they typically get all season long. Incredible. This is a big travel week as we prepare for Thanksgiving on Thursday. Are you traveling somewhere and if so, will you hit bad weather? It's a week where we get plenty of phone calls, emails, Facebook and Twitter messages, all questioning the weather. The storm system that delivered big snows to Texas and southwest Oklahoma over the weekend is moving east and will likely slow things down in major airport hubs. So if you plan to head that way, be sure to check the conditions.

The weather pattern will calm down for several days in the central US. That doesn't necessarily mean a warmup is coming soon. We will have to wait until late week when we finally turn the corner and head back for the 50s. Do you like cold weather? I find mixed opinions about it on social media, but I suppose majority would prefer warmer temperatures. Happy Thanksgiving. Millie and I will be on the air that evening, so if you get bored (or need a break from family), hope you'll tune in. Stay warm!

Severe weather outbreak

The severe weather outbreak on Sunday was well forecast by meteorologists around the country. The Storm Prediction Center had a high risk in place for much of Illinois and Indiana early in the day, and by afternoon, there must have been a dozen tornado warnings going at one time. While not completely out of line for November, to see such significant storms that far north is amazing to me. There was an incredible amount of wind in the atmosphere, with some wind speeds over 150 mph at roughly 10-15,000 feet. I'm always amazed at how destructive the weather can be with the right amount of wind and moisture. Below are images from the Storm Prediction Center showing their severe storm outlook and the storm reports to show how well the forecast verified.

Much colder air will invade the central and northern US later in the week. I'll have an update on that later.

Looking ahead...

November is zooming by and just two weeks until Thanksgiving. Something tells me December will go quickly too with the holidays here. I'm never ready, and every attempt at getting my Christmas shopping done early seems to fail. We shall see what happens this year. We had to shoot some holiday memory, promotional type stuff this week. Don't know when they will hit the air, but hopefully they will make you chuckle.

A few weeks back, I talked about the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and what that might mean for our extended forecast. It has been positive lately, and that's translated to near or above normal temperatures around the area. There have been a few days mixed in where it's been colder than normal, but overall, the milder weather should continue a little longer. However, look at what is happening to the AO now. It is swinging back negative now, so let's watch and see what happens. I wouldn't expect any significant change in the next 8-10 days, but let's watch the last week of November, and especially the start of December. If you like milder weather, we still have some time to enjoy that before the pattern changes in any significant fashion. If you like cold and want some snow, at this point, we are going to have to wait until the early start in December. There are still several changes taking place in our atmosphere this time of the year.

A School Visit to Remember

Millie and I had a chance to visit Remington Elementary School in Potwin on Tuesday and it was a visit that we won't soon forget. The kids changed the words to "October Rocktober" to "November Remember" and performed the song just before our weather presentation. Here are the lyrics, but the 2 minute YouTube video is well worth checking out.

http://youtu.be/kQQeisPTDU8

"Some folks like the springtime, some like summer, too. 

Others like the winter, I tell ya, that won't do! 

Tell us the forecast (tell us the forecast)

We need it real fast (we need it real fast)

Millie's a cool dog, she's not a hot dog!

Rain, snow, ice, sleet, or fog!

November, Remember, Millie and Ross are here

November, Remember, Watch Channel 12 all year!

Some folks like it humid, some folks like it hot!

Others like it freezing, I tell ya, I do NOT!

(repeat chorus...Tell us the forecast, etc.)"

Thanks again, to the faculty at Remington for inviting us to come up and see the kids. Maybe we sparked someone to become a meteorologist, but even if we didn't, the trip was so worth it to watch the kids perform "November Remember".

Fall Color and Winter Preview

I think we are having some of the best fall color of any year I can remember here in Kansas. I've been impressed with the maples this year and I think it has everything to do with the extra moisture we had in late July and early August. It seems like most of the time in fall, our leaves turn brown and then the wind knocks them off the trees a few days later (without much chance to enjoy it). I'm sharing some of the fall pictures we've received at the station and hope you've had a chance to enjoy some of it on your own. In another few weeks, the color will be on the ground.

Our weather has been very active the last few weeks with rain, storms, and even some snow back on October 18th. If our fall weather pattern repeats through the winter months, I think it's safe to expect at least normal snowfall this season, which would mean about 15-20 inches of snow for much of the state, with 30-40 inches in far western Kansas. Confidence is growing that there could be several cold snaps coming this way for the winter. Some say we are overdue for a cold, harsh winter, and it may be welcomed by some to help kill off bugs and control some of the allergy problems. One set of data that we look at is the Arctic Oscillation index (AO), and when the numbers go positive, we typically see a warming trend in the temperatures. It doesn't mean every day will be warm or mild, but overall, it's usually a warmer pattern that evolves. When the AO goes negative, colder than average temperatures are likely to occur soon. The AO numbers are showing more positive values for early November, so we will likely see at least near normal to slightly above normal for the start of the month. I expect it will change by the middle of November. Stay tuned.

Closer and closer to frost/freeze

Temperatures continue to drop as the fall season continues (as we would expect) and while some areas of the state have now experienced their first, fall freeze, many areas are still waiting. A hard freeze is usually defined by temperatures falling to 28 degrees or colder for several hours. Frost can happen with temperatures ranging from 30-36 degrees. Here are some average first freeze information for areas around Kansas.

The pattern is showing more cold air coming our way for the middle of next week. It's a real possibility for widespread frost or a hard freeze either Tuesday or Wednesday morning (October 22 or 23). It's amazing to me how fast the weather begins to change at this time of the year, but the jet stream winds strengthen and the storm systems continue getting stronger. I'm posting a snapshot from one of the computer models showing the cold air coming this way next week. Could there be some changes to this? Absolutely! But for now, confidence is growing our first killing frost could be coming very soon.

Temperatures at 5,000 feet for 7 a.m. Wednesday, Oct. 23

Pumpkins and colder weather

It just wouldn't be Halloween season without someone talking about "pumpkin chunkin" or the "punkinator", etc. The idea isn't new, but every time I see video of someone chunkin' pumpkins or firing them into the air, it's good for a laugh. Seems like a clever idea and entertaining for all involved.

Our weather center is already equipped with an weather rock (helps our accuracy) and now we have a new idea that was emailed to us. It's an official "weather pumpkin". Basic rules still apply: if it's wet - rain, if it's white on top - snow, and my favorite, if it's gone - tornado. We have some great technology to help us track the weather, but nothing quite like the weather pumpkin.

Map for 7 a.m. Friday morning (10-18-2013)

Get ready for a HUGE October chill this week. The weather pattern is changing quickly and there is a bunch of cold air that will spill south during the middle of the week. A hard freeze will likely end the growing season for northwest Kansas, while other areas of central Kansas will likely have frost. This should be the coldest air so far of the season, and if you haven't kicked on your furnace yet, you probably will this week. The last couple of weeks have been very active with one storm right after another, but we will likely see that change with a quiet stretch of weather coming by late week.

Caterpillar follow-up & fall frost

Last week I mentioned finding a caterpillar while Millie and I were out for a walk and it was all black with no brown stripe. Well, our discovery today is just as confusing. This time, we find an all brown (or more yellow looking) caterpillar with no stripes. Maybe the bugs are just as puzzled about the upcoming winter as meteorologists, but as October begins, we are starting to see things change across much of the US. This is the time of year where the weather pattern begins strengthening and each passing system seems to bring in more cold air. Our days with highs in the 80s will be limited now and we are starting catch glimpses of possible snow as far south as Nebraska. If you've lived in Kansas for a long time, you probably already know that it can snow around here this month. Crazy to think about.

Most of us will see our first, fall frost this month too. As you would expect, it normally happens earlier in October for northwest Kansas, and later in south central. Every year is different, but the average, first fall frost is within the first 10 days of October for the northwest, and around October 26-28th for places like Wichita.

Our weather looks cooler heading into the first full week of the new month. And as the air continues to dry down, our rainfall events will likely be less frequent. This will not be an El Nino or a La Nina winter, so figuring out the long range pattern is extremely difficult at this time of the season. Maybe Millie's thick fur coat should tell us something about the approaching winter, but corgis always have a lot of hair, so scratch that idea.

Caterpillar's forecast for the winter

 
Several of you have asked about the upcoming winter and how bad will it be? Or will it be mild? We just don't know yet, but may have some insights in another month or so. But while Millie and I were hiking Wednesday morning, we came across this little guy. We've all seen them before, but I couldn't remember what it means if they have large brown stripes vs. smaller ones. It sounds like if the caterpillar has a large brown stripe, a mild winter is coming. If the brown strip is small, expect a harsh winter. But what about in this case? There wasn't a brown strip at all (and the picture doesn't show the black very well). Maybe that means no winter at all, but I've only seen one caterpillar.  There could be others out there that have a better prediction. It's just folklore after all, but fun to consider what might be ahead (unless of course you dread winter)

I know the Farmer's Almanac (as misleading as it can be sometimes) is calling for a rough winter, but let's wait and see what the next 45 days bring to Kansas. That might give us a better understanding of what could be coming. I think we are overdue for an ice storm, but Millie would prefer snow or rain over ice. I don't think she's alone.

Changing weather pattern

I think I've mentioned this before, but fall is my favorite season in weather around Kansas. It's always exciting to watch as the atmosphere changes from warm to cold. Everything starts getting stronger when colder air gets involved. The winds aloft (50,000 feet), the cold fronts, the storm systems, etc. and each passing system means a variety of weather.

In the next two weeks, we will likely see some interesting storm systems move across the US, and if the longer range models are right, at least one of them will be quite strong. Too much rain in Colorado has been devastating, so we don't want that, but more moisture wouldn't be so bad, especially in the southwest corner of the state.

Take a look at this forecast image for Saturday, Sep. 21st. Colder air from Alaska heads south, while warmer air from Mexico continues to move north. As time goes along, the colder air from the north will win every battle it encounters with the warm, and fall weather will be here to stay. The big "L", or storm system on the west coast, will be headed for Kansas early next week, and should bring at least a chance for moisture, and another cool down. Between Thursday, Sep. 19 and the end of the month, there should be at least 3, if not 4 more storm systems coming through. Let's hope we get the moisture we need now, because it's more difficult in the months of October and November as the air begins to dry down.

Weather map valid Saturday, Sep. 21

If you came by the KWCH booth during the fair and said hi to Millie, thanks. She has been pretty tired, and it seems like recovering from the fair takes a little longer now that she's a little older. But we enjoyed meeting everyone.

Millie, the weather, and KS State Fair

By now, you've probably seen pictures of Millie in the 100th year of the Kansas State Fair parade that took place on Labor Day. We were so glad it had cooled off for the day because the 1919 Model T we rode in had no air conditioning. The north breeze made the day almost perfect. I'm posting a few pictures from the parade on Monday. The governor walked up and said "hey, it's Millie the weather dog". So her fame has now reached the statehouse. Don't know yet if she'll run for an office. Denny Stoecklein, Kansas State Fair General Manager, has ordered highs in the low 80s and sunshine during the 10 day event. Doesn't look like the fair will start out that cool, but it will be dry. By the way, Millie and I will be on the fairgrounds on Tuesday, and the second Saturday (the 14th) at the KWCH booth. So come on by and we'll try and set you up with some goodies.

The weather pattern doesn't change this week. So it's basically more of the same day after day. Sunshine and hot weather will be the main features this week. Normal high for this time of the year is about 88 and we will pass that by early afternoon. September is a month when we begin the transition to fall, but you wouldn't know that by looking at this weeks weather. We do see some changes taking place during the second full week of the month. A cold front will arrive along with some chances for rain beginning on Tuesday, the 10th and lasting through Wednesday. Temperatures should fall into the 80s for highs. Some forecasts are calling for an active 2nd half of September, so we will be watching to see if that setup is indeed coming to Kansas. Stay tuned.

Stubborn pattern & ugly Kansas?

Last week, we had a story on KWCH about Kansas having the worst scenery in all of America. Naturally, as a Kansas native, it bugged me to hear someone make that declaration, and I think what most people associate with Kansas is only what they see on I-70 as they drive through the area. I'll admit, driving in Colorado is fun because of the Rockies. Missouri has some pretty cool scenery in the southern part of the state with all of the trees and the lakes. But every state is unique and beauty is in the eye of the beholder. To say Kansas has the ugliest scenery just means you haven't taken the time to look around at all we have to offer. I'd say we have a diverse landscape that far outpaces many areas in the United State. Scott Bean has captured some really cool pictures of Kansas scenery, and put it together in this video. If you have 5 minutes to check it out, it is well worth and while you are watching, try to guess where in Kansas each picture was taken. I will admit, our landscape looks so much better when we have green vegetation vs. the brown from the last two summers. Here is the link to the video:   http://vimeo.com/73014200

Our weather pattern won't change much for the next 8 or 9 days. High pressure is the dominant feature and just like the last two summers, this is how we had so many hot days in a row. I've lost count how many people have told me they are ready for fall, but I know some are still loving summer, and if that's the case, you'll love the fact this heat will be staying for awhile. I'm afraid moving into September, this high pressure won't give up without a fight. But I'm certain, once the high breaks down, we'll start getting some of our first tastes of fall, and I'm anticipating it could come earlier this year (compared to some other years)

Cowtown Days and changing weather

Millie and I drove the KWCH 60th anniversary car in the Ellsworth Cowtown parade Saturday. We had a great time, but I'm not sure Millie was that excited for the random gunshots that were fired in the air during the parade. I stacked a bunch of pillows up so she could look out the passenger side window during the parade, but once the shots were fired, she spent the rest of the route in my lap. It was a memorable experience and glad we could be there for the event. The organizer said there were 95 entries... probably one of the biggest in Cowtown Days history.

Our weather pattern will finally change and dry out. There are mixed feelings about it, even though the majority probably want the dry stretch so outdoor projects can resume. The pattern we are about to see is typical for summer, and if this were the middle of July, we'd likely be heading for 100 degree temperatures again. Considering it's the second half of August, we're not likely to break 100 degrees, but we will see a string of 90s that may last for 8 or 10 days in a row. So we won't have to worry about counting a bunch of 100 degree temperatures like we did the last two summers. And hard to believe the first day of fall is just about one month away. Summer seems to go faster each year.

courtesy National Weather Service

Why so much rain?

From one extreme to another, Kansas has definitely experienced a wild ride from drought to flooding in just a matter of two weeks. We've had a bunch of calls and emails wanting to know why so much rain and then when does the heaviest finally end?

The pattern isn't necessarily all that unusual for this time of the year. It is definitely different than the last two summers, but some would say it's about time. There is a large high to our south in Texas and around the high, the wind blows clockwise. So all of the monsoon moisture is carried through Arizona, New Mexico, and right up across the Rockies. If the high pressure was stronger like the last few summers have been, this moisture plume would be shoved farther north and we wouldn't be getting any rain at all. Several areas in Texas have been experiencing highs above 100 and very little rainfall (sounds familiar)

But too much rain can be just as devastating as no rain at all. So we will need this rain to shut off pretty soon. Western Kansas still needs the moisture, but central and southern Kansas has snapped the drought and needs a few weeks to dry out. Finding an end in this wet pattern will be tough though. With more moisture available and a series of systems coming in early next week, rain chances will continue through the first half of the week.

2 week rains & a look ahead

It's amazing how quickly things have turned around for Kansas in regards to the drought. In nearly two weeks, some areas have had more rain than in 6 months of 2012. Water levels are up, streams are running bank full, and abnormally dry conditions are limited to far western Kansas.

I'm posting rainfall amounts since July 23 and even southwest Kansas has noticed some ease in the drought conditions, but the northwest has quickly moved into first place for some of the driest areas of the region. The new drought monitor map will be out Thursday (August 8) and we will have a better handle on where the "extreme" and "exception" areas lie, but they have to be getting a little smaller with the kind of pattern we've seen over the state.

There is still no clear indication when things may dry out for more than just a few days. Some of the longer range computer models continue to keep the main high pressure system to our south, allowing for the hot, dry weather to reside over Texas, with our weather remaining active. As is often the case, when you have so much available humidity over a given area, it won't take much to set off storms and keep the rain chances around. It should be very interesting to see what kind of fall we will have. With abundant rains and less hot temperatures, we could be in for a real treat in October and November when the leaves are changing. Time will tell.

July Rain Comparison

Here is a snapshot of the difference from one July to the next. What a difference and it's amazing how green the landscape is across much of central and eastern Kansas. Needless to say, the drought has ended for several areas of the state and the lake levels are quickly rising. Look for an updated drought map very soon, but we know the exceptional drought continues across western Kansas. The rains have been spotty here, and some areas haven't had anything at all.

The active pattern looks to continue into early August. It's interesting how the weather works sometimes. With all of the abundant moisture hanging around, it will be much easier to develop rain and storms compared to when you have dry soil and vegetation. So it's possible with all of the available moisture, the rain chances will continue to be quite high heading through August. We'll shall see.

Active week coming up

Just over a month into the summer season and we are still getting rains and just when it looks like we are heading into a lengthy hot stretch of weather, changes take place in the storm track. We will see that happen again this week as the huge high pressure dome continues it's grip on the southwest US. Kansas will be on the northeast edge of the heat dome, and this should keep us in an active weather pattern with chances for rain through the week.

Week of July 22

This type of weather pattern is a challenging one for meteorologists to try and pin down when the rain will move in and when it will end. Northwest flow is how we reference it, because the winds are coming from the northwest and down off the Rockies. Storms that develop off the higher elevations of Colorado, Nebraska, and Wyoming will have a tendency to roll southeast, but it's difficult figuring out how far southeast the storms will go. But to say the least, we should have at least 3 decent rounds of storms this week. The first could be Monday evening/night, then another Tuesday night/early Wednesday, and more possible Thursday/Friday.

And... it looks like we should see another cool down by mid to late week. Sure is nice keeping the temperatures under 100.

Unusual for July

The clouds and rain shower activity have held the temperatures down across much of the central and southern US. But how bizarre is this statistic? The last time Dallas had a high in the 70s in July was over 16 years ago. The last two weeks of July and the first week of August is (on average) the hottest time of the year with highs in the mid 90s. We've had so much hot weather the last two summers that most of us expected it could repeat.

We do see a shift coming in the pattern for the second part of the week. So hotter temperatures will return. But what may help out is a cold front coming into the area Friday night and Saturday. It may not drop the temperatures much, but it should bring a chance for more rain/storms. Stay tuned.

Unusual weekend pattern

It's very weird to see a storm system go from the eastern US back to Kansas, but that will be the case over the weekend. Here it is Friday morning and the storm over West Virginia will be sliding into eastern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma by Sunday afternoon. Click the maps below to see a larger view.

Afternoon temperatures will be cooling back into the 80s by Sunday and we could see some spotty rains over Kansas as early as Sunday morning. Any rain we get with the low pressure system will be isolated activity and probably won't be anything heavy. But, when you can forecast highs in the 80s for mid July, it's hard to complain about that. Enjoy. Millie (yes, the real Millie) and I will be trying to get some things done today on our day off. Back on the air Sunday evening.

Have a great weekend.