Fall Color and Winter Preview

I think we are having some of the best fall color of any year I can remember here in Kansas. I've been impressed with the maples this year and I think it has everything to do with the extra moisture we had in late July and early August. It seems like most of the time in fall, our leaves turn brown and then the wind knocks them off the trees a few days later (without much chance to enjoy it). I'm sharing some of the fall pictures we've received at the station and hope you've had a chance to enjoy some of it on your own. In another few weeks, the color will be on the ground.

Our weather has been very active the last few weeks with rain, storms, and even some snow back on October 18th. If our fall weather pattern repeats through the winter months, I think it's safe to expect at least normal snowfall this season, which would mean about 15-20 inches of snow for much of the state, with 30-40 inches in far western Kansas. Confidence is growing that there could be several cold snaps coming this way for the winter. Some say we are overdue for a cold, harsh winter, and it may be welcomed by some to help kill off bugs and control some of the allergy problems. One set of data that we look at is the Arctic Oscillation index (AO), and when the numbers go positive, we typically see a warming trend in the temperatures. It doesn't mean every day will be warm or mild, but overall, it's usually a warmer pattern that evolves. When the AO goes negative, colder than average temperatures are likely to occur soon. The AO numbers are showing more positive values for early November, so we will likely see at least near normal to slightly above normal for the start of the month. I expect it will change by the middle of November. Stay tuned.