Fall Color and Winter Preview

I think we are having some of the best fall color of any year I can remember here in Kansas. I've been impressed with the maples this year and I think it has everything to do with the extra moisture we had in late July and early August. It seems like most of the time in fall, our leaves turn brown and then the wind knocks them off the trees a few days later (without much chance to enjoy it). I'm sharing some of the fall pictures we've received at the station and hope you've had a chance to enjoy some of it on your own. In another few weeks, the color will be on the ground.

Our weather has been very active the last few weeks with rain, storms, and even some snow back on October 18th. If our fall weather pattern repeats through the winter months, I think it's safe to expect at least normal snowfall this season, which would mean about 15-20 inches of snow for much of the state, with 30-40 inches in far western Kansas. Confidence is growing that there could be several cold snaps coming this way for the winter. Some say we are overdue for a cold, harsh winter, and it may be welcomed by some to help kill off bugs and control some of the allergy problems. One set of data that we look at is the Arctic Oscillation index (AO), and when the numbers go positive, we typically see a warming trend in the temperatures. It doesn't mean every day will be warm or mild, but overall, it's usually a warmer pattern that evolves. When the AO goes negative, colder than average temperatures are likely to occur soon. The AO numbers are showing more positive values for early November, so we will likely see at least near normal to slightly above normal for the start of the month. I expect it will change by the middle of November. Stay tuned.

Closer and closer to frost/freeze

Temperatures continue to drop as the fall season continues (as we would expect) and while some areas of the state have now experienced their first, fall freeze, many areas are still waiting. A hard freeze is usually defined by temperatures falling to 28 degrees or colder for several hours. Frost can happen with temperatures ranging from 30-36 degrees. Here are some average first freeze information for areas around Kansas.

The pattern is showing more cold air coming our way for the middle of next week. It's a real possibility for widespread frost or a hard freeze either Tuesday or Wednesday morning (October 22 or 23). It's amazing to me how fast the weather begins to change at this time of the year, but the jet stream winds strengthen and the storm systems continue getting stronger. I'm posting a snapshot from one of the computer models showing the cold air coming this way next week. Could there be some changes to this? Absolutely! But for now, confidence is growing our first killing frost could be coming very soon.

Temperatures at 5,000 feet for 7 a.m. Wednesday, Oct. 23

Pumpkins and colder weather

It just wouldn't be Halloween season without someone talking about "pumpkin chunkin" or the "punkinator", etc. The idea isn't new, but every time I see video of someone chunkin' pumpkins or firing them into the air, it's good for a laugh. Seems like a clever idea and entertaining for all involved.

Our weather center is already equipped with an weather rock (helps our accuracy) and now we have a new idea that was emailed to us. It's an official "weather pumpkin". Basic rules still apply: if it's wet - rain, if it's white on top - snow, and my favorite, if it's gone - tornado. We have some great technology to help us track the weather, but nothing quite like the weather pumpkin.

Map for 7 a.m. Friday morning (10-18-2013)

Get ready for a HUGE October chill this week. The weather pattern is changing quickly and there is a bunch of cold air that will spill south during the middle of the week. A hard freeze will likely end the growing season for northwest Kansas, while other areas of central Kansas will likely have frost. This should be the coldest air so far of the season, and if you haven't kicked on your furnace yet, you probably will this week. The last couple of weeks have been very active with one storm right after another, but we will likely see that change with a quiet stretch of weather coming by late week.

Caterpillar follow-up & fall frost

Last week I mentioned finding a caterpillar while Millie and I were out for a walk and it was all black with no brown stripe. Well, our discovery today is just as confusing. This time, we find an all brown (or more yellow looking) caterpillar with no stripes. Maybe the bugs are just as puzzled about the upcoming winter as meteorologists, but as October begins, we are starting to see things change across much of the US. This is the time of year where the weather pattern begins strengthening and each passing system seems to bring in more cold air. Our days with highs in the 80s will be limited now and we are starting catch glimpses of possible snow as far south as Nebraska. If you've lived in Kansas for a long time, you probably already know that it can snow around here this month. Crazy to think about.

Most of us will see our first, fall frost this month too. As you would expect, it normally happens earlier in October for northwest Kansas, and later in south central. Every year is different, but the average, first fall frost is within the first 10 days of October for the northwest, and around October 26-28th for places like Wichita.

Our weather looks cooler heading into the first full week of the new month. And as the air continues to dry down, our rainfall events will likely be less frequent. This will not be an El Nino or a La Nina winter, so figuring out the long range pattern is extremely difficult at this time of the season. Maybe Millie's thick fur coat should tell us something about the approaching winter, but corgis always have a lot of hair, so scratch that idea.