First big winter storm

What a weekend! I posted a blog entry on Friday discussing the challenges that come with forecasting snow accumulation. This storm definitely tested our patience, just waiting around for the ice to turn to snow. I don't think any of the meteorologists involved in the forecasting process thought we would see 12 inch amounts, but all it takes is one heavy band to setup over an area for a few hours and you get some amazing amounts. So now that we know how everything ended up, take a look at how the computer models performed. One computer model had the right idea, while another was off completely. Our initial forecast was very good with the right idea of the heavier snow being in central Kansas, but we didn't think there would be over 12 inches of snow. Crazy.

The satellite picture from outer space Sunday afternoon clearly defines the "snow vs. no snow" line. Isn't it amazing. Sometimes 10-15 miles makes all the difference from snow to no snow. I love the winter forecasting challenge. It can be quite frustrating, but honestly, if I were to leave Kansas for a warmer climate, I would miss these fascinating winter storms.

While our chances of having a white Christmas may only be 10-20% in any given year, this year... some finally get their wish. Have a Merry Christmas.

Snow forecasting challenges

This may help explain why forecasting snow is extremely challenging. If you are a weather enthusiast, you probably already know that if the storm changes path even by 15 or 20 miles, it can make all the difference in the world with regards to where the heaviest accumulation will setup. 

Here is an example heading into this first big snow event of the winter season. One forecast model shown on the left , known as the NAM (North American Model), shows the heaviest snow staying south of Hwy 54 (click for larger image). The other, GFS (Global Forecast Systems) shows the higher amounts in central and eastern Kansas. So how do we make our prediction? We try to understand which model is doing the best job at the current time and base our forecast off of it and we have a few other models to try and help us figure out what's going to take place. We have other sets of data we can look at too, but I always tell people that figuring out snow accumulation is probably the hardest task we do as meteorologists. What's the second hardest? Probably swallowing a bad forecast... but fortunately we don't have too many of those. =)

Have a great weekend and be safe.

 

Dreaming of a White Christmas?

This is an exciting time of the year (if you've been good of course) and leading up to Christmas, several of you have asked about a white Christmas. Our chances in any given year are very low (between 10-20%), so maybe that's why the song says "dreaming" because it just doesn't happen that often.

So what does the weather look like leading up to Christmas? It's beginning to look like there could be two more storms coming through between now and Christmas night. Timing of precipitation is always a challenge when looking out several days, but one of the computer models that's more reliable in the extended period shows one system close by next weekend (Dec. 21) and perhaps another system on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. So as we continue in an active cycle of the weather pattern, we will have to see what kind of moisture is available and how cold the atmosphere will be when the systems approach. I have to say, if the atmosphere is a little colder heading into next weekend, I'd say areas just south of Kansas could be in for another major ice event. But Kansas would probably be just on the northern fringe of it, with maybe some light precipitation.

Forecast for Sunday 6 a.m. Dec. 22

Changing pattern ahead

After a week of below freezing temperatures, the weather pattern begins to change again this week. Milder air starts pushing back toward the central US as the bitter cold will finally retreat to the northeast. What an amazing week with icy conditions to our south, major snow over the Rockies, and it was one of the coldest starts to December ever on record. The pattern changes back to a milder/less active one for a little while. I expect it may be that way leading up to Christmas week.

We've had a bunch of cool pictures trickle in over the last few days with the blast of winter weather (click on the pictures to make them larger). Ice crystals high up in the atmosphere align after a snow event in northern Kansas Sunday to create a sun pillar. It looks like a fire ball dropping in the western sky. Maybe you've heard of a sun dog. That's when you have the sliver of light on either the left or right side of the sun. And then we received another picture from Russell showing a pile of snowflakes that looked like a Christmas tree. One final flake on top of the pile made it appear as if the "tree" had a topper. We appreciate all of the pictures and reports because it gives us a better idea of what is really happening across the area. There's no substitute for reliable ground truth. Have a great week.

 

 



Another cold blast coming

Here we are at the start of a new month, new week, and coming off of a long holiday weekend when the weather was about as nice as you can expect for December. The cold weather doesn't bother me too much, and I enjoy a good snow event, but when the temperatures climb into the 60s and the winds are light, life is pretty good.

We are waiting on another big blast of cold air and it's going to be around for quite a few days. The difficult task this week is figuring out exactly when the front arrives, but for most of us, we probably won't notice the drastic change until Wednesday. You can see on the map all of the cold air plunging south through the western US. It will be some of the coldest air yet this season. It will be cold enough for snow, but we are not forecasting any ice or big snow accumulations yet. We will have to watch the following week to see if something can develop out of this active pattern.

Millie and I visited Heartspring Saturday night. They have their "Lights on the Lake" going on right now and it was spectacular to drive through and see all of the decorations. Santa was there visiting with the kids, and of course, they had refreshments. So where does Millie like to hang out? Yep, right below the Christmas cookie table, just magically hoping for an accidental drop. Her face and those ears are hard to resist, but if I gave in every time Millie wanted a snack, she would be in a world of hurt. The nice weather has allowed us to spend more time hiking around and burning off the extra holiday calories. Have a great week.