More rain coming - no heat wave yet

We continue to see some good news regarding ongoing drought in Kansas as we approach late June and even start to look out into mid-July. 

First up, the infamous "heat dome" will remain over northern Mexico right up to the end of June and it should be very weak. Given that, we will continue to see repeated rounds of storms off the high plains of Colorado and right down into Kansas. This is classic summertime - mainly overnight and early morning storms. 

This particular setup should yield more rain for the Plains and the Corn Belt, which might be key timing for some of the fall crop production and yields. Take a look at the predicted rain amounts and see that western Kansas might be on the lower end of the amounts but should still receive some rainfall throughout the last week of June.

And as we've talked about before, the more rain, the better the chances are at avoiding a prolonged heat wave. If you're "dry", you tend to "fry". 

 

Going out further into July, it will be our turn for some hotter weather. Signs are pointing to more 90s and drier days, but I don't expect a major heat wave or a long stretch of no rain.

Most models hint at the upper high pressure, or heat dome, moving back to near Amarillo and resulting in some hotter temperatures and less rainfall as we approach mid-July. This could help to crank up the monsoon over the Desert Southwest and across the Rockies. The upper level winds would keep the higher rain potential off to our west. 

I don't think a prolonged heat wave is in our future for July. There are too many other factors suggesting whatever heat we do get into may very well be brief - broken down by a cold front and some rain. Great news for farmers and those who aren't fans of summer heat and humidity.

June, summer rain, and El Niño

Unofficial summer is here (meteorological summer), running June 1 - August 31st and I've been responding to many emails lately about the rain (or lack thereof) and the incoming super El Niño. Up until mid-May, there was great concern about when the rain would finally come. After all, I had been talking about a shift to "wetter" conditions with the incoming El Niño, but it just wasn't working out that way and week after week passed with no real change.

Let's look at how the water temperatures have changed since early May:

Now June:

The expansion of the warmer water to the west is quite impressive. On average, the water temperatures are .5°C warmer across the area that's monitored for El Nino (which happens to be more than 8 million square miles - mainly south of Hawaii)

And what we are seeing looking deeper into summer and early fall is even more drastic, with the likelihood of a strong El Nino shaping up. In fact, there's even some modeling that suggests this event might challenge the strongest El Nino on record (1997-98), which was one of the first episodes that was measured with satellite technology and studied more extensively.

Below is the 1997-98 El Nino

As we've said before, most strong El Niño patterns favor rain for Kansas. I've spent some time looking back at previous summers with this kind of influence and while not every month was wetter than average, more times than not rainfall was near or above average.

Here's the latest June outlook for rainfall:

And temperatures:

If we put the summer months (June, July, August) into one map, you get this kind of look:

Temperatures:

And rainfall:

I can (and will at some point) post some more images into the fall, but I continue to see signs of rain ahead, so drought will continue to scale back. It wouldn't be a total surprise if some areas of western Kansas fall out of drought altogether, but it will take more time for that to happen. 

Thanks for reading. I hope to have more timely updates this month. Please check back!

May rain/temperature maps

The month of May is here & usually it is the peak of severe weather season for Kansas. However, April was busy and this statistic regarding the number of tornado and t-storm warnings backs that up:

The focus has clearly been on the eastern half of the state, and more specifically, along and southeast of the Turnpike. Note the quick drop off of storm reports once you get west of Great Bend and Hays. Every cold front that has pushed through hasn't encountered that rich, Gulf humidity until it made it east of I-135. Our tornado count is right around 30 for 2026, which is on track to outpace 2025, but still well below the average of 80 that Kansas expects in a year.

May outlook:

It sure looks like the month overall is drier than average - doubt you'll be surprised by that considering the trends as of late. Here's the updated map:

Even locations that have been wetter in April may be trending drier for the upcoming 30 days (talking about eastern Kansas). 

Temperatures:

I still feel strongly about May overall being slightly cooler than average. One could be concerned that a lack of rain and sub-soil moisture would allow temperatures to soar, but we continue to see signs of cooler air dominating the areas along and east of the Rockies. This doesn't look like record cool, but doubtful that summer heat takes over like it did in March.

Waiting on rain is testing everyone's patience. We continue to talk about the El Nino and a potential shift toward some better potential of rainfall. Our longer range data still shows that for summer and into early fall. It is hard to imagine that when everything lately has gone around us, but I still think a shakeup in the dry pattern is coming. 

Hopefully it is in time for the fall crops, which I would suspect it would be, but we should also note that summer rains can be very scattered, in which case some will be left out. As you well know, our models aren't perfect and their accuracy may have had some recent setbacks, but we continue to dig into the data as best we can to unlock some downstream clues.

Thanks for reading!

Remain hopeful looking ahead - ENSO update

It's not exactly unfamiliar territory for anybody in Kansas these days. Spreading drought, missed opportunities on rain, and everything seems to go around us. We are back in that all-to-familiar pattern where we just can't seem to buy a healthy rain. I'm not a wheat expert, but after some recent trips across the state, this year's crop is very short and likely moisture starved, so whatever rain we do get will be too late for that, I'm sure. 

Backing up the concerns for rain - parts of the state have had only 5-10% normal moisture over the past 60 days:

There's reason to be hopeful looking forward. First, let's address the El Nino because the water temperatures have just gone positive in the critical area that is monitored (along the equator and south of Hawaii). The average temperature has just gone to .1°C above average. (Below is the map showing the water temperatures compared to average). You may be noticing the extremely warm water off the California coast, but that's not the area monitored for El Nino (that water is related to something different)

Look where we will be in 60-90 days:

This could easily become a strong El Nino by late summer. Most of the time, when we move into an El Nino, odds increase for Kansas to get better rainfall. It doesn't always happen that way, but you will find more cases of wetter stretches of weather in El Nino as compared to its counterpart, La Nina. And although not shown here, temperatures tend to be near or slightly cooler for the Plains states. There are multiple cases of that happening during these kinds of setups. 

I still have concerns that the next 30 days - through mid/late May, will still wind up drier than average on a large scale. However, more areas of the state SHOULD get rain compared to what has happened so far. I can't make any promises on how much, but the weather patterns we are looking at (at least for early May) should be more helpful. 

7 Day Rainfall - compared to average - through May 3:

7 Day Rainfall - compared to average - through May 10:

7 Day Rainfall - compared to average - through mid May:

Remember, this doesn't guarantee that all areas of the state will be in better shape (compared to the previous few months), but they are signs of a shifting trend as the persistent track of low pressure off the West coast continues. That may end by the middle of May, so let's watch for that. Some of these systems may wobble around for a few days, creating the unsettled weather and leading to cooler temperatures. 

Summer Rains?

If we extend the maps out to summer (and I know some of you won't believe it until you see it), there's an increasing chance we'll have slightly wetter than average weather across the middle of the country. Will this come in June, July, or August? That's a more difficult prediction to make right now, but I'd be leaning toward more rain later in the summer as the El Nino continues to strengthen and influence the overall pattern. 

One more note about the El Nino/La Nina patterns. Take a look at the graph below. 

You'll see how we cycle back and forth between the two phenomena (where the line goes up, it is El Nino and when it dips toward the bottom of the graph, it's La Nina). It's not uncommon to be in cycles where La Nina is favored more frequently (that's where we are now), but there are cycles where El Nino is more common. It's early to say how long the incoming El Nino will last, but it should continue through at least the first part of winter before weakening - according to most models.

April rains still on track and some summer thoughts

It's very easy to be frustrated with the overall lack of moisture for Kansas in recent weeks and months, but we aren't the only ones left out. This lack of rain is something that is fairly widespread across the Plains states, given how the drought map looks here at the start of the month. 

I've said over the past several weeks that early April holds promise of being wetter for much of the area, and I still stand by those predictions. The persistent high pressure that was a problem in March is gone for now, so look for more active weather out of the West between now and mid-April. We may not get the amounts of rain you're hoping for, but at least there's something on the horizon to consider. 

Beyond mid-April, it will likely dry out again, so the second half of the month may not be very helpful for Kansas. Most of the data suggests high pressure may reassert itself into the Plains, which will make generating good rain near impossible. Below is the rainfall projection for late month:

Since March was one of the warmest ones on record, we have been fielding a lot of questions about what this means for the summer months. It's natural to think the summer will be ridiculously hot, but everything I keep looking at suggest the opposite. That would be consistent with rapid onset of El Nino, potentially increasing the potential of rains for the Plains and helping to keep the heat in check.

And if you're interested, this is what we see on the rainfall maps for summer (remember this is a three-month period squeezed into one map). 

New April rainfall maps

In the face of expanding drought across the Plains, we continue to see some encouraging signs going into April. Late March has been controlled by a dominant ridge of high pressure over the Southwest, and that has essentially led to more of what we had all winter (mild weather and several dry spells). Just look at all of the records that will fall on March 21st from California to Wisconsin.

Here's what happens around the 1st of the month:

Low pressure becomes favored over the area west of the Rockies while the high pressure moves to the East coast. As a word of caution - this doesn't always guarantee significant rainfall, but chances will return on a larger scale than anything we've had the past several weeks.

The rainfall outlook in early April looks like this:

This might make the difference between a mediocre wheat crop and one that could do very well, assuming we avoid all early spring freezes. I don't think the entire month will be rainy however, as high pressure may reassert itself back in the Plains by mid-late April.

If that becomes the case, we'll see our rain chances dropping off quickly and risks of severe weather will shift away from the central Plains.

In case you're wondering about temperatures, April should be warmer than average once again. I should remind you that even though we are having a hot start to spring, that doesn't necessarily mean the upcoming summer is going to be hotter than blazes. Some of the latest data continues to show the central Plains with an average or slightly cooler than average summer (months of June, July, and August combined). Some food for thought as we deal with the recent streak of record highs.

Thanks for reading!

Expanding drought - rain will be scarce

It's not that uncommon for March to be windy and mainly dry, but if you keep missing rains into April, you start to get a little nervous about it what it means going into summer. Lately, there has been some good rainfall in south central and eastern Kansas, but the latest drought map doesn't necessarily reflect that. In the short term, high pressure from Kansas to the West coast will keep the central Plains mostly void of decent moisture.

Beneficial rainfall (and some snow) will favor the northern Plains and areas east of Kansas, but the stubborn ridge will keep the central and southern Plains dry. We'll also see the potential of severe storms drop off.

If we stretch our rainfall forecast out to April 20th, it's a tough map to digest for areas across central and western Kansas where things have been pretty dry. It doesn't mean there won't be any rain, just that conditions will be drier than average. 

For what it's worth, we are quickly watching the La Nina in the Pacific fade away. The water has been slightly colder than average for the past several months (since last summer), but we are currently seeing the water warm up south of Hawaii. That is key to a change that should be coming as we move toward summer. Traditionally, with an onset of El Nino, the Plains can expect patterns that bring more favorable rainfall. It won't happen overnight or within a week, but a shift toward El Nino offers some hopeful signs of rain going forward (even if the spring isn't overly helpful).

This is how the water looked on December 1st:

And now, you'll see less "blue" colors along the Equator. We know the water is gradually warming, but an official declaration of El Nino won't come for several more months yet. 

I'll write something soon and go into more detail on the El Nino coming, but for now, just know that we are soon making the switch. 

Have a great day!

March coming in like a lion

After a fairly benign February, the month of March looks like it will come in like a gentle lion (if there is such a thing). You have to think it could be worse and we have definitely seen worse.

We do know the first 10 days of March look wet! Basically, from the southern Plains to the upper Midwest, a series of large-scale systems out of the West could keep things pretty soggy. I guess not EVERYONE needs rain, according to this email we received from a viewer on February 26th:

I do think the majority of our March moisture (overall) is weighted toward the beginning of the month, with repeated systems arriving from the West or Southwest. We're even looking at some risk of stronger thunderstorms across the southern Plains and into the mid-Mississippi River Valley. I don't think Kansas will have much of a severe weather threat at this stage.

There's reason to be concerned about a heavy, wet snow in March, but I don't think we'll see much of that in Kansas (might be a concern west and north of our immediate area). Below is the March rainfall outlook for the 31 day period - favoring the eastern half of Kansas to be wetter, with western Kansas still getting some rain, but not likely to be wetter than average (which is typically about 1-2" of rain)

The pattern should calm down some by mid-March and into the second half of the month. It wouldn't be a total surprise to see high pressure returning to the west of the Rockies, which would bring about some drier trends in the 3rd week of the month. However, we should keep a watch on late March as more active weather could be returning out of the West. Most models seem to hint at the pattern reloading again after the 23rd. Of course, that late in the month, one might anticipate the threat of severe storms increasing

We've had one heck of a run on warm weather this winter. In fact, this reaches the top 10 warmest winters on record (top 5 for western Kansas), so we probably won't soon forget this one. I think we had about 2-3 weeks of "cold" overall, and I'd be surprised if this month of March is anything out of the ordinary. 

Right now, the data tells us to expect a seasonal month - likely to close to the average. There are still some chilly days ahead, but they'll more than likely be limited in duration.

Winter fades very fast - some chilly days still to come

I thought mid-late February would have another shot of some Arctic air, but that expectation has faded given the breakdown of the Polar Vortex and general trend toward a positive Arctic Oscillation (the two go hand-in-hand). Recall that the Polar Vortex, when it's strong, can send an overwhelming amount of cold air south across areas east of the Rockies. It happened in late January, but since then it has weakened and shifted back northeast.

I know we have some warm winters from time to time, but this one is probably one of the strangest in recent memory. Since December 1st (or the start of meteorological winter), we've had almost 10 days where some place in Kansas has recorded a record high, and more to be added soon. December had 4 days with record highs, January with 2, and we'll soon be adding to February's count.

Third week of February (16-22):

A dominant pattern with low pressure across the West will favor warmer weather throughout the central Plains on to the east. Take note of the VERY cold air across western Canada. That was originally thought to move south and get into the central Plains, but I'm not expecting that to happen now. We may get some of that chillier air, but not the core of it. 

February 23-March 2:

Definitely cooler to end February and start March, but it's very unlikely to be bitterly cold. Expect most highs to be in the 40s and 50s. And precipitation throughout this period will likely be somewhat scarce, considering upper level winds will be back to the west/northwest (traditionally a drier setup)

March as a whole: More than likely it will be near or slightly warmer than average

Precipitation: near to slightly wetter across the central Plains. 

• Western Kansas average rainfall in March is about 1-1.50"
• Central/South Central Kansas average March rain is 2-2.50"

The overall setup may be something that resembles what happened in December where the northern Plains and upper Midwest had more active weather. That's fitting of a weak La Nina influence, but as we mentioned last time, La Nina has all but faded at this time.