Amid the heatwave, there's this...

It sure seems like all of the 100s that Kansas might have missed out on last summer are showing up this month. Much of the state is already at their average number of 100 days, and we're still looking at another heat wave in week 3 of the month (Aug. 16-22). However, this looks like it will be the last big stand of the "heat dome", so let's get to some better news.

When I wrote up the August outlook, I said September looked encouraging for rainfall, and that still appears to be the case. With the increasing El Niño, which I'll show in just a second, we are likely to start seeing the southern branch of the jet stream getting more and more active as we get into fall. I would assume this will come too late for many fall crops.

Latest drought map (August 13th):

Much of the state had tremendous rainfall in June, making it a top 10 wettest for several parts of the state. July started drying out and as expected, August has gone hot and dry statewide. But as most of us know, one extreme can follow another, and while I'm not saying we'll have flooding in 30 days, a change is coming.

Here's the 30 day rainfall outlook - starting now - Sep. 12th:

Model #1:

Model #2:

It looks like in the final week of August the upper high pressure is collapsing fairly quickly as several systems begin to track straight in from the West. Each passing one will likely weaken the "high" even more, so I think we will see things flip fairly quickly here as August comes to a close and we get into September. It may make for an interesting fall harvest season if things turn wet. I do not think September will be exceptionally cool, but it should be much closer to average compared to the blow-torch hot August that we've had so far. 

Side note - September is not traditionally a very wet month for Kansas. Average rainfall drops by about an inch for most of the state.

El Nino is impressive:

Just incredible what's happening along the equator in the Pacific. Notice the area of white, south of Hawaii that stretches for thousands of miles. Right now, the area monitored for El Nino is 1.8°C above average and it continues to warm. What's also of interest is the exceptionally cold water that is west of the dateline, southwest of Hawaii. That will also play a role in developing weather patterns as we go into the winter season. 

Past El Nino influence on fall weather patterns generally trend toward wetter setups overall. Most recently, 2015-16 was a strong El Nino episode and much of the season & into winter was wet. See the examples below, starting with October, followed by November and December. You will see that October was drier for central and eastern Kansas.

October 2015:

November 2015:

December 2015:

Thanks for reading!

August heat remains - but interesting signals ahead

Just one month remaining in 2026 meteorological summer and although we've had some hot days, we are not setting any all-time records, and this is not on pace for a hottest summer by any means. Some of those summer records belong to 2011/2012, 1989, and the 1930s. A quick glance at the map below shows how July wrapped up - with much of the state at least "slightly above" on temperatures (largely driven by the late month temperature surge) 

July rainfall wasn't much to get excited about, with almost all areas (with the exception of northeast Kansas) well below average. See how central and south central Kansas ended the month about 3-3.50" below. It would've been nice to have some of that June rain carryover. Driest July for Wichita and Dodge City since 2011 & 2012, respectively. 

August preview:

Right here at the outset, I will say August isn't promising for any cool weather. If it's going to show up (the cool weather that is), it's not going to happen until we hit late August. Persistent high pressure remaining very close to Kansas will likely dominate the first half of the month and perhaps longer. Up until recently, we've been able to avoid the upper level high for much of the summer, but it may be camped out nearby for the next several weeks.

This also suggests to me that August is a dry month - below average rainfall is likely for the 31 day period. What rain we do get in August could be weighted toward the end of the month, but even that may turn out to be lackluster. 

However - While most of you will fall in the camp of "believe it when I see it", the strong El Niño may send us into a much wetter setup soon. Most of the data suggests rain arriving in early September, and the months to follow will be turning wetter than average. That may complicate fall harvest and fall planting in a big way. It shouldn't be a total surprise because fall and winter tend to go wetter when we have an El Niño influence, and this one coming on is a strong one (maybe even stronger than the 97-98 one that set records). We will be highlighting some of these cases in future posts, but El Niño impacts are usually an energized southern branch of the jet stream, which would foster better rains over the southern half of the US. That is now showing in many of our maps. The image below is September projected rain, followed by September, October, and November (grouped into one map).

September rain:

Sep/Oct/Nov rain:

More to come on El Nino!

Signs of some rain; cooler weather

Reaching the halfway point of July and we are still on track to avoid any major heatwaves in the coming weeks. That is fitting when moving into a strong El Niño - and some of the other background indicators have suggested Kansas will remain out of the intense summer heat dome. I still expect we'll have at least a few 100° days - we all know August can be hot - but spending an extended period right under the big summer "high" doesn't look likely.

Take a look at what is shaping up for the 3rd week of July:

Cooler temperatures (compared to average - mainly 80°s) should be expected from the Rockies eastward. The upper-level winds (jet stream) should be coming out of the northwest, which will help drive the changes. The main heat dome is not going to be that strong, but it will be camped out near the 4 Corners region, which will keep the monsoon influence going in the desert, and some active weather will trickle off the Rockies. 

This is somewhat reminiscent of what happened in late June and early July when parts of the state were influenced by nightly storms. Most models are suggesting some .3-.75" amounts could become reality, which isn't anything spectacular, but you have to welcome it in the hottest part of summer.

Last week of July:

If we look at the last week of July into early August, be prepared for your typical July heat with highs remaining in the 90s, but there's no support for a long stretch of 100s. The main "heat dome" should reside out across Arizona and New Mexico, but it once again doesn't look particularly strong.

There has been some question about rainfall moving into August and nearly everything I've looked at is showing drier than average conditions will likely persist for much of the state. That doesn't mean we won't get any rain, but the episodes may be few and far between and amounts won't be anything blockbuster. Here's one of the maps, showing roughly .5-1" below for Kansas.

The latest El Nino indicator is showing water temperatures south of Hawaii at +1.3°C above average and still increasing. It will continue to be a big topic for fall and the upcoming winter, so we'll be discussing it more in the weeks ahead. 

Could we escape the worst of summer's heat in July?

Welcome to July! And already, 2026 is half over (I'm always amazed at how fast time flies). We just wrapped up a wet June with many locations experiencing a top 20 wettest June on record, but some went even further than that by breaking into top 10. Here's a map showing June rainfall numbers:

Several areas across central and southern Kansas had over 200% of normal moisture. Naturally, the drought has improved drastically compared to 60 days ago. Incoming El Nino is almost always helpful in generating rainfall and this time proves no different. 

July is starting off with record heat in the eastern United States as the infamous "heat dome" sets up across the Tennessee and Kentucky. Of course, the impacts are far reaching with the New England states even gearing up for highs near 100. A few areas may have all-time high temperatures before it's over, and it could be the last of the major heat they'll see in the East for the remainder of this summer. 

July outlook - I don't see this month being extremely hot for Kansas. Average highs remain in the low 90s throughout the month, and I can't imagine we'll have any prolonged periods of 100° weather. The upper level high will be uncomfortably close to Kansas, but latest trends suggest it may never get that strong. At times where it tries to strengthen, it may get weakened by some upper level feature coming over the northern Rockies. 

If that's the case, we should expect near or slightly cooler than average temperatures when the month ends. Here's the temperature map:

Rainfall expectations shouldn't be too disappointing, but we do know that July won't be as wet as June. After all, back-to-back record months with rainfall are quite unusual. Average July rain tends to drop because high pressure is more common this time of year. However, if the high pressure remains weaker, that should allow for some more active weather to arrive off the Rockies. We'll see. Early monsoon may help provide some welcome rainfall off to the southwest of Kansas too - not entirely sure if we'll see any of that getting up into our immediate area. 

Here's a rundown of what average July rainfall looks like for various parts of the state:

• Goodland: 3.08"
• Wichita: 3.98"
• Dodge City: 3.08"
• Garden City: 3.43"
• Salina: 3.92"
• Hutch: 3.33"
• Hays: 3.95"

Water temperatures out in the Pacific continue to warm as the El Nino intensifies. This will likely rank as one of the stronger ones on record before it's over. Note that even warmer water is gathering just off the central/south American coastline. Some of it will continue moving westward. The average water temperature in the El Nino zone (that's monitored) is 1.2° above average. This is going to be a factor through fall and winter, so it's a topic we'll come back to many times.

Thanks for spending a few minutes here - stay cool!

More rain coming - no heat wave yet

We continue to see some good news regarding ongoing drought in Kansas as we approach late June and even start to look out into mid-July. 

First up, the infamous "heat dome" will remain over northern Mexico right up to the end of June and it should be very weak. Given that, we will continue to see repeated rounds of storms off the high plains of Colorado and right down into Kansas. This is classic summertime - mainly overnight and early morning storms. 

This particular setup should yield more rain for the Plains and the Corn Belt, which might be key timing for some of the fall crop production and yields. Take a look at the predicted rain amounts and see that western Kansas might be on the lower end of the amounts but should still receive some rainfall throughout the last week of June.

And as we've talked about before, the more rain, the better the chances are at avoiding a prolonged heat wave. If you're "dry", you tend to "fry". 

 

Going out further into July, it will be our turn for some hotter weather. Signs are pointing to more 90s and drier days, but I don't expect a major heat wave or a long stretch of no rain.

Most models hint at the upper high pressure, or heat dome, moving back to near Amarillo and resulting in some hotter temperatures and less rainfall as we approach mid-July. This could help to crank up the monsoon over the Desert Southwest and across the Rockies. The upper level winds would keep the higher rain potential off to our west. 

I don't think a prolonged heat wave is in our future for July. There are too many other factors suggesting whatever heat we do get into may very well be brief - broken down by a cold front and some rain. Great news for farmers and those who aren't fans of summer heat and humidity.

June, summer rain, and El Niño

Unofficial summer is here (meteorological summer), running June 1 - August 31st and I've been responding to many emails lately about the rain (or lack thereof) and the incoming super El Niño. Up until mid-May, there was great concern about when the rain would finally come. After all, I had been talking about a shift to "wetter" conditions with the incoming El Niño, but it just wasn't working out that way and week after week passed with no real change.

Let's look at how the water temperatures have changed since early May:

Now June:

The expansion of the warmer water to the west is quite impressive. On average, the water temperatures are .5°C warmer across the area that's monitored for El Nino (which happens to be more than 8 million square miles - mainly south of Hawaii)

And what we are seeing looking deeper into summer and early fall is even more drastic, with the likelihood of a strong El Nino shaping up. In fact, there's even some modeling that suggests this event might challenge the strongest El Nino on record (1997-98), which was one of the first episodes that was measured with satellite technology and studied more extensively.

Below is the 1997-98 El Nino

As we've said before, most strong El Niño patterns favor rain for Kansas. I've spent some time looking back at previous summers with this kind of influence and while not every month was wetter than average, more times than not rainfall was near or above average.

Here's the latest June outlook for rainfall:

And temperatures:

If we put the summer months (June, July, August) into one map, you get this kind of look:

Temperatures:

And rainfall:

I can (and will at some point) post some more images into the fall, but I continue to see signs of rain ahead, so drought will continue to scale back. It wouldn't be a total surprise if some areas of western Kansas fall out of drought altogether, but it will take more time for that to happen. 

Thanks for reading. I hope to have more timely updates this month. Please check back!

May rain/temperature maps

The month of May is here & usually it is the peak of severe weather season for Kansas. However, April was busy and this statistic regarding the number of tornado and t-storm warnings backs that up:

The focus has clearly been on the eastern half of the state, and more specifically, along and southeast of the Turnpike. Note the quick drop off of storm reports once you get west of Great Bend and Hays. Every cold front that has pushed through hasn't encountered that rich, Gulf humidity until it made it east of I-135. Our tornado count is right around 30 for 2026, which is on track to outpace 2025, but still well below the average of 80 that Kansas expects in a year.

May outlook:

It sure looks like the month overall is drier than average - doubt you'll be surprised by that considering the trends as of late. Here's the updated map:

Even locations that have been wetter in April may be trending drier for the upcoming 30 days (talking about eastern Kansas). 

Temperatures:

I still feel strongly about May overall being slightly cooler than average. One could be concerned that a lack of rain and sub-soil moisture would allow temperatures to soar, but we continue to see signs of cooler air dominating the areas along and east of the Rockies. This doesn't look like record cool, but doubtful that summer heat takes over like it did in March.

Waiting on rain is testing everyone's patience. We continue to talk about the El Nino and a potential shift toward some better potential of rainfall. Our longer range data still shows that for summer and into early fall. It is hard to imagine that when everything lately has gone around us, but I still think a shakeup in the dry pattern is coming. 

Hopefully it is in time for the fall crops, which I would suspect it would be, but we should also note that summer rains can be very scattered, in which case some will be left out. As you well know, our models aren't perfect and their accuracy may have had some recent setbacks, but we continue to dig into the data as best we can to unlock some downstream clues.

Thanks for reading!

Remain hopeful looking ahead - ENSO update

It's not exactly unfamiliar territory for anybody in Kansas these days. Spreading drought, missed opportunities on rain, and everything seems to go around us. We are back in that all-to-familiar pattern where we just can't seem to buy a healthy rain. I'm not a wheat expert, but after some recent trips across the state, this year's crop is very short and likely moisture starved, so whatever rain we do get will be too late for that, I'm sure. 

Backing up the concerns for rain - parts of the state have had only 5-10% normal moisture over the past 60 days:

There's reason to be hopeful looking forward. First, let's address the El Nino because the water temperatures have just gone positive in the critical area that is monitored (along the equator and south of Hawaii). The average temperature has just gone to .1°C above average. (Below is the map showing the water temperatures compared to average). You may be noticing the extremely warm water off the California coast, but that's not the area monitored for El Nino (that water is related to something different)

Look where we will be in 60-90 days:

This could easily become a strong El Nino by late summer. Most of the time, when we move into an El Nino, odds increase for Kansas to get better rainfall. It doesn't always happen that way, but you will find more cases of wetter stretches of weather in El Nino as compared to its counterpart, La Nina. And although not shown here, temperatures tend to be near or slightly cooler for the Plains states. There are multiple cases of that happening during these kinds of setups. 

I still have concerns that the next 30 days - through mid/late May, will still wind up drier than average on a large scale. However, more areas of the state SHOULD get rain compared to what has happened so far. I can't make any promises on how much, but the weather patterns we are looking at (at least for early May) should be more helpful. 

7 Day Rainfall - compared to average - through May 3:

7 Day Rainfall - compared to average - through May 10:

7 Day Rainfall - compared to average - through mid May:

Remember, this doesn't guarantee that all areas of the state will be in better shape (compared to the previous few months), but they are signs of a shifting trend as the persistent track of low pressure off the West coast continues. That may end by the middle of May, so let's watch for that. Some of these systems may wobble around for a few days, creating the unsettled weather and leading to cooler temperatures. 

Summer Rains?

If we extend the maps out to summer (and I know some of you won't believe it until you see it), there's an increasing chance we'll have slightly wetter than average weather across the middle of the country. Will this come in June, July, or August? That's a more difficult prediction to make right now, but I'd be leaning toward more rain later in the summer as the El Nino continues to strengthen and influence the overall pattern. 

One more note about the El Nino/La Nina patterns. Take a look at the graph below. 

You'll see how we cycle back and forth between the two phenomena (where the line goes up, it is El Nino and when it dips toward the bottom of the graph, it's La Nina). It's not uncommon to be in cycles where La Nina is favored more frequently (that's where we are now), but there are cycles where El Nino is more common. It's early to say how long the incoming El Nino will last, but it should continue through at least the first part of winter before weakening - according to most models.