Final thoughts on 2014 weather!

Twin tornadoes near Pilger, NE

Good Wednesday morning on this New Years Eve. Everybody is so busy these days I often wonder how much we stop and think back on what has happened throughout the course of the year. Some of you may be glad to see 2014 go into the dustbin of history.

Last night after the 10 p.m. newscast, I did a little thinking about what I thought were the biggest weather features of 2014 and then it hit me. Tornadoes (or lack thereof) Living in Kansas, we get teased so much because of The Wizard of Oz and all of the tornadoes here, but this year was quite different. Here are some tornado stats for 2014:

And after looking over those numbers, it's even harder to believe that some parts of Kansas never even had a tornado watch. Look at this map from the Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, OK.

I don't have a good explanation as to why the numbers were so low this year, but I do think the drier than normal weather we had at the beginning of the year played a role. How dry was it? Well, for some areas, it was the driest start to any calendar year since the Dust Bowl days of the 30s. We finally started getting some rains in late May and June, but by then, the peak of tornado season was on the downhill slide. It makes it more challenging to get tornadoes when the ground is dry and there isn't much low level moisture available. After all, low level moisture is one of the key ingredients in getting tornadoes to form, and when it's not there, your chances are greatly reduced.

But nobody is complaining about the lack of twisters. It's a good problem to have. However, let's hope Mother Nature doesn't try to make up for the lack of tornadoes in 2015. Happy New Year!

Las Vegas surprise - really? And watching a late week storm system

Hopefully these bitterly cold temperatures didn't catch you by surprise. Hello winter in Kansas!! This has been a well advertised Arctic outbreak that will be around for a few days, and even after that, we will likely stay in the 20s and 30s for several days to come.

Snow is rare for the Mojave Desert

And we are watching a storm system that is currently impacting the weather in Las Vegas. Monday morning, the temperature dropped to 30 degrees in Vegas, making it the first subfreezing temperature in 381 days. Now, tourists and residents of Las Vegas are bracing for highs in the 30s (yep, I know, bracing) with a chance to see some light snow. The last 1 inch of snow in Las Vegas was back in December of 2008.
Here is a bulletin posted from the National Weather Service. It's definitely worth a read:

 NVZ020-301030-
 LAS VEGAS VALLEY-
 216 PM PST MON DEC 29 2014
 
 ...VERY UNUSUAL WEATHER IN LAS VEGAS FOR NEW YEAR`S EVE AND DAY...
 
 NORMALLY SUNNY AND MILD LAS VEGAS IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE UNUSUAL
 AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WEATHER FOR THE NEW YEAR`S EVE INTO NEW
 YEAR`S DAY TIME PERIOD. A COLD AND SOMEWHAT MOIST STORM SYSTEM IS
 EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
 NEW YEAR`S DAY BRINGING A VARIETY OF HIGH IMPACT WEATHER WITH TO LAS
 VEGAS AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
 
 MANY TOURISTS WHO COME TO LAS VEGAS MAY BE UNPREPARED FOR THE TRUE
 WINTER-LIKE CONDITIONS THIS STORM COULD BRING WITH IT. TRAVEL
 CONDITIONS COULD BE DIFFICULT - IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE - ON AREA ROADS
 STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NEW YEAR`S DAY INCLUDING ON ROUTES TO
 LAS VEGAS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHERN
 ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH. SNOW REMOVAL AND TREATMENT EQUIPMENT IS
 VERY LIMITED IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY ITSELF. PARKING ON ROADS PUTS
 YOUR VEHICLE AT RISK FOR BEING SLID INTO AND ALSO MAKES ACCESS ONTO
 STREETS HARDER FOR VEHICLES THAT NEED TO GET THROUGH EVEN IF A MINOR
 AMOUNT OF SNOW ONLY FALLS. IN ADDITION...ANY SNOW...EVEN IF IT DOES
 NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH ACCUMULATION...WILL MAKE WALKWAYS AND SIDEWALKS
 VERY SLIPPERY. WEARING SHOES WITH GOOD TRACTION IS RECOMMENDED TO
 AVOID SLIP AND FALLS.

The same system over Las Vegas will begin moving toward Kansas at the end of the week. It's unlikely to produce much moisture around here, but some light snow could mix with some rain Saturday in south central Kansas. It shouldn't cause any major problems on the roads, and most of the moisture is going to end up south of Kansas in Oklahoma and Arkansas. So if you are traveling in those areas this weekend, be sure to check the conditions.

Storm system from Las Vegas will be moving toward Kansas late week

Your New Years Day forecast around Kansas will be a chilly one as we work our way out of the deep freeze. We should have at least a little sunshine that will help get temperatures back into the 30s.

Cold finish to 2014 - white for a few as well

Hello Arctic air!! We are in the home stretch of 2014 and it looks like the year will end on a very cold note for much of the state. But then again, it is wintertime and it's not that unusual to see temperatures drop into the single digits and teens.

Bitter cold slips south

One of the things we've been looking at is high pressure building up in the Gulf of Alaska. When that happens, it allows these big chunks of Arctic air to slide south and invade much of the central and northern US. We saw this happen back in the middle of November when the temperatures went from 70s back into the 20s. I don't think this will be a two week cold snap though, as some of the forecast models take most of the really cold air back to the northeast by the weekend.

One possible track of a storm late in the week - the track is the key

Speaking of the weekend, there is another storm system that will emerge from the southwest by Friday-Saturday. We've been on the fence about whether or not it would bring some moisture to our area. I've had some questions on Facebook and Twitter asking about when we will see a nice, big snow (more than just 2 or 3 inches). The storms that arrive from the southwest are usually the ones that dump heavy amounts of snow on Kansas, but this one looks to be tracking too far south. I'm posting an image of what one forecast model was showing on Sunday, but already this morning, it looks like the moisture might be moving back south again. So it's looking more and more like the weekend storm won't do much for us in Kansas, but we know how things can change around here.

Sunset pictures from Dec. 28 from Timothy Cox - near Salina

Courtesy Timothy Cox - near Salina

Some snow today - bitter cold to end 2014

Good Friday morning. Hope you had a terrific Christmas and maybe some of you still have more Christmas gatherings yet this weekend. If you are planning to travel around Kansas and surrounding states today, we do have a chance for some light snow. While it won't be a major winter storm, some accumulation of snow is expected across the far west and into northern Kansas with up to 3 inches possible. I-70 could have some snowpacked and icy spots for awhile today and this evening, but we don't expect it to shutdown like it did earlier in the week.

Going into the weekend, the weather will clear up and we should have sunshine both days over the weekend. Saturday will be the colder of the two days with highs stuck in the low 30s and then warming into the upper 30s/near 40 by Sunday.

Travel weather Saturday. Wet weather just east of Kansas

Another storm enters the Pacific Northwest from Canada

Major pattern change by Monday-Tuesday

We have been anticipating a significant weather pattern change now for well over a week. High pressure is building up in the Gulf of Alaska and that's going to unlock the Arctic air to move south once again. Several other factors have been indicating a change too, and it looks like by Monday night, the cold weather will be taking control. Highs in the teens will be quite common by Tuesday/Wednesday (Dec. 30-31) and wind chills down around -15 could be a reality by that time too. Although it will be a very slow process, we should start to see temperatures come back up after we pass New Years Day. Time will tell, but be prepared for bitter cold to return next week. If we get any chance for light snow, that will be Monday night or Tuesday, but it won't be any more than a trace-1"

Have a great weekend!!

Snow, wind, and more big changes coming

The biggest challenge today across Kansas just might be the wind depending on which direction you are headed. Western Kansas will have wind gusts over 40 mph with some light snow. Visibility could drop below a mile for a few hours, but it's unlikely there will be any road closures or widespread slick travel. It might be more of a nuisance than anything else.

Severe storms possible in the Southeast on Christmas Eve

More active weather with rain and snow in the Pacific Northwest

Once we get passed this little episode of snow and wind, we will see excellent travel weather on Christmas Eve day around Kansas. Get ready to see very windy conditions on Thursday for Christmas, especially over central and eastern Kansas. Wind gusts may approach 50 mph along I-135. It will be a south wind, so the temperatures will warm up into the 50s for much of the area.

Right after Christmas, the stage is set for much colder weather to return to the area. We've been watching several indicators that suggest Arctic air isn't too far off again, but you know, we are overdue. So much of December has either been near normal or above, and in another few weeks, we will reach (on average) the coldest point of the year. By Monday and Tuesday (Dec. 29/30) I expect we could see highs in the 20s around Kansas with an Arctic surge that may be around for awhile. This is something we will be tracking through the Christmas holiday. Millie and I will celebrate Christmas early so that we can be back on the air Thursday.

Have a safe and Merry Christmas!

Active weather for Christmas week

The last minute rush is on for shopping and getting together with family and friends. Some of you will travel this week or expect people to be traveling into Kansas. The biggest challenges will likely be across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes areas. Wet and windy weather could slow travelers down in the northeast part of the country. Kansas is going to have a very active week with chances for rain, snow, wind, and changing temperatures. If you wanted some wild weather for Christmas... wish granted.

Tuesday will bring a chance for some light snow to Kansas. It's the same system that could cause flight delays in Chicago. We will be on the backside of the low, so we are just looking at some light snow and wind. At this time, it's unlikely there would be much more than a dusting around the area. But some areas of northwest Kansas could get up to an inch. It's going to be so windy that measuring snow will be next to impossible with gusts over 40 mph. The snow won't likely be heavy enough to cause a blizzard, but for awhile, there could be a reduction in visibility (especially for northern areas of Kansas)

One forecast model for snow Tuesday - Tuesday night. 

Severe storms possible Tuesday in the Southeast

Windy and snowy weather from the Plains to the Great Lakes

Western US looks pretty nice

Wednesday and Thursday will try to warm back up around the state. The warmest day this week could be on Christmas with 50s and maybe even a 60 or two in the southwest. It will be windy on Christmas day. Hope Santa's sleigh has good aerodynamics.

A big blast of cold air is scheduled to return on Friday with highs falling back into the 30s. It looks dry next weekend with any chance for snow stretching from Colorado to Nebraska and bypassing Kansas altogether.

Snowfall totals around Kansas - through 7 a.m.

Snowfall totals from around the area:
White City (Morris Co.) - 5"
2 NW of Goessel (Marion Co.) - 5"
Concordia - 5"
Ellsworth - 4.5"
Jamestown (Cloud Co.) - 4.5"
Salina - 3.5"
2 W of Emporia - 3"
Bucklin (Ford Co.) - 3"
Wichita - 2.7"
McConnell AFB - 2.5"


Here are some pictures that we've received.

Ashley Holland - Lincoln

From Turi Horton

Barbara Dean

Still looks like a quiet weekend of weather. Temperatures will mostly likely be in the 40s. I expect we will have some sunshine, but it may be limited Saturday and Sunday afternoon. And we are still looking at a big change in the weather either on Christmas Day or the 26th. MUCH colder air will return soon.

Wintry weather arrives - what about a White Christmas?

Through Thursday P.M.

If the timing of this round of winter weather was one week later, we'd likely have a white Christmas. But as it turns out, even with snow in the forecast for Wednesday night and Thursday, much of it will melt by the weekend. The moisture is coming in from the south and will arrive later today. If you've been following the forecast with us, it still looks to start as some rain, and then quickly transition over to a wintry mix and then all snow. Temperatures are trending colder, and that boosts our confidence that this will mainly be a snow event rather than ice.

Roads will likely be wet for the drive home, and then look for the wintry mix to be underway by 9 or 10 p.m. Wednesday night. The moisture should change to all snow during the night and continue through the morning drive Thursday. Accumulations will likely be 1-2 inches for much of Kansas, with little or no snow accumulation south of Highway 54/400. Those areas will be just a little too warm we think. This latest system will be out of here by Thursday afternoon, but the clouds will be sticking around.

White Christmas for Wichita since 2000

So what about the rest of the week leading up to Christmas?

Another storm system will pass through Sunday. It might produce a few sprinkles.

Another system will come in Monday with a cold front. Again, sprinkles or a rain shower look to be the extent of the precipitation for the start of the week.

Active weather goes east on Christmas Eve Day

By the time we get to Christmas Eve, all of the active weather may have shifted to our east. I think our temperatures are going to try and warm up into the 40s and maybe 50s going into Christmas Day, but there is a warning...much colder air and some light snow could show up Friday or Saturday (right after the holiday). Highs in the teens and 20s look likely. Details to come!

Wintry mix headed for Kansas

Welcome to Tuesday. Just over a week away from Christmas and some of you are wanting to know if we will have snow for Christmas. It's not looking very likely, but we will go over some of the stats on the blog coming up tomorrow and talk about the pattern that is setting up.

In the meantime, we have a weak storm system that is coming through Wednesday night and Thursday. It's very likely we will get some moisture out of it, but it definitely won't be as much as we had over the weekend. However, this next round of precipitation is going to be running into some colder air, so we are likely to see what most of us didn't in the weekend storm... sleet and snow. The forecast models are showing up to an inch for most areas that get snow early Thursday. It will likely just be a dusting of snow over western Kansas.

Here's a summary of how I think the next few days will go:

Wednesday morning: Mostly cloudy - dry

Wednesday after 5 p.m.: Cloudy - some rain/sleet possible (southern KS) - some snow mixed in for central KS

Thursday A.M. - Light snow, especially for central and eastern KS. Accumulations around an inch possible

Thursday P.M. - Dry but still mainly cloudy (temps in the mid 30s)

Wednesday night - Thursday

So although there could be some wet/slushy/icy roads early Thursday, driving conditions will improve in the afternoon. This will not be a major winter storm, but as is the case with any wintry precipitation, you'll probably need to give yourself some extra time for the commute Thursday morning. We will of course have updates on the newscasts later this afternoon and evening. Thanks for sharing a little time with us.

December weather is back - chance for rain & snow

Welcome to Monday. Just 10 more days until Christmas and after having some springlike weather over the weekend, it's feeling like December outside today. This huge storm spinning over Kansas was responsible for helping develop thunderstorms and the brief tornado that touched down in Harper county. After it happened, we started looking to see when the last December tornado in Kansas took place, and it's more than 10 years ago. We believe it may have been 2002. So December tornadoes in Kansas are rare, but they have been documented in every month of the year. And look at this crazy hailstone that fell in Oklahoma City yesterday. They take on some weird shapes sometimes when smaller hailstones stick to the bigger pieces of ice. I'm not sure how I would report it to the National Weather Service or media, but it's a big piece of ice!

Photo sent by David Gruber

The next system moving our way isn't nearly as strong as the one that is moving out of Kansas today. It will have some moisture to work with, and the clouds will start showing up Wednesday afternoon as it gets closer. The moisture should begin moving in shortly after dark and could continue into Thursday morning. Based on the temperatures, we will be borderline cold enough for snow, and that's why we are calling it a mix. Some snow could mix with the rain, and then by Thursday morning, it could be all snow for a few hours. However, because the moisture is somewhat limited, I would expect snow accumulations to be an inch or less. This will not be a big system.

Afternoon temperatures Thursday will be in the 30s, which is much cooler than what some of us have had in over a week. But considering winter begins on Sunday, seeing highs in the 30s isn't really out of the ordinary. Have a good day!

Millie's calendar is complete & stormy weather in our future

Feels good to know it's Friday, but if you haven't started your Christmas shopping yet, time is running short. The rush is on and I really need to get my shopping done this weekend. I wish everyone were as easy to shop for as Millie. By the way, because pictures A and C received an overwhelming majority of votes, here is how the cover of the calendar turned out.

Some of you have asked where you can buy a Millie 2015 calendar, but the truth of the matter is... we aren't selling any. I simply decided to do one for my wall at home. We have talked about making a calendar and having the proceeds go to help some of the smaller animal shelters, but for now, this is the only one being printed. I do appreciate everyone voting (I hope I didn't ruin your day)

The weekend storm continues to move toward Kansas. Still looks like cloudy weather with some fog taking us into the weekend. The rain will arrive Sunday morning in western Kansas, and then spread east as we move into Sunday afternoon. I'm still thinking 0.25-.50" for most of the state, but there are areas north of I-70 that could get a little bit more. And because we are so mild for December, the wintry side of this storm will be limited. Some snow is expected in northwest Kansas, with an inch or two not out of the question.

Potential weekend rainfall amounts

Sunday night - early Monday

Heavier snows are likely to fall in northeast Colorado and up into Nebraska. Traveling northwest early next week might present some challenges, so be sure to check the conditions.

Next week will be interesting too. A VERY active weather pattern will continue to send storms our way. This seems to fit with an El Nino winter that is evolving over the Pacific. California is getting rain again and we could have a very wet storm arriving Thursday of next week. Forecast models continue to keep much of the cold air in Canada, so I'm expecting next weeks storm to produce mainly rain again, but western Kansas could get snow. It's just less than a week away, so there are plenty of opportunities for the forecast to change some, but we continue to see a pattern with limited cold air. And that's why I think it could be a rain producer rather than snow. But check back in with us later in the weekend and next week. 

Rainfall forecast and still a chance for snow

A huge storm coming into the west is causing some problems in California with flooding and blizzard conditions in the higher elevations. It's either feast of famine though with rainfall sometimes. For the longest time, California couldn't buy any moisture and now a series of storm systems will continue to send rain across the drought areas of the west.

Some thunderstorms are possible from Wichita south - snow for the northwest

Sunday - Monday forecast rainfall

The forecast for the weekend hasn't changed much in regards to the timing of the rainfall for Sunday. It looks to start in southwest Kansas around midday, and then it will develop and spread east into Sunday evening. The lack of cold air in the central Plains right now and through the weekend will eliminate the threat of widespread, heavy snowfall into Sunday night, but we still expect far northwest Kansas and areas of Colorado to see some accumulating snow into Monday morning. I-70 could be a little sloppy for several hours Monday morning, so that will be something to take into consideration if traveling. One forecast model is showing roughly .50" rain through Sunday night and early Monday.

Next week, the weather pattern will continue to be very active. There's a chance we could have another storm system coming through Thursday that may bring a rain/snow mix to Kansas. Details coming tomorrow!

More clouds arrive and a weekend storm to bring rain & snow

We've made it to Wednesday and over the next few days, we will be hard pressed to find any sunshine. I know it can be a little hard to go through several continuous days of no sun, but that may be the case for much of central and eastern Kansas. Warmer air from the south is trying to move back into Kansas, and as it does so, it's running into some cool air and helping to generate the overcast. So drizzle, fog, and low clouds will likely be a part of the weather story all the way into Saturday and beyond.

Big western storm causing snow for high elevations

Another big storm is going to move into California by the end of the week. Already, blizzard and winter storm warnings have been posted for significant snow above 6000 feet. Some areas are going to double their annual rainfall from last year with the help of this approaching storm. So while the national news covers the impact on the west coast, we will be busy watching it's move toward Kansas into the weekend.

Right now, we look for cloudy skies, windy weather, and perhaps some drizzle on Saturday. The storm won't arrive until Sunday and based on the track of the system, almost all of Kansas will get rain late Sunday morning and into the afternoon. I don't think it will be heavy, but some .25-.50" amounts seem reasonable given the movement and placement of the system. Northwest Kansas could get some snow Sunday night, but the heavier accumulations will likely stay in Colorado and western Nebraska. If the storm ends up tracking farther south, snow accumulations could end up in Kansas, but with several days to go, exact details are a little uncertain.

Exact snow amounts are uncertain this far out, but a storm to watch closely

Mild, December weather ahead of a storm

Jet stream pushes well north this week and keeps the cold air in Canada

It's our second full week of December and a time of the year where we should be talking about snow. Average snowfall for December around Kansas ranges anywhere from 4-6 inches. But the weather pattern this week is not going to deliver that kind of moisture. The temperatures are just way too warm and it's not just in Kansas. Much of the central and northern Plains are expected to be 15-20 degrees warmer than normal later this week.

Late week, mild temperatures continue

The pattern looks to get active again late in the week too. A huge storm system will be coming off the Pacific Thursday/Friday and then moving east. For several days now, we've been keying in on a rain chance for the weekend around here. Because of the unseasonably warm weather that is spread out over the area, it's unlikely that the weekend rains will get changed to snow. But on the backside of the system into early next week (Monday, Dec. 15) there may be a few hours where some of the rain could mix with or change to some snow. It's a little early to say how much rain could fall next weekend, but it is a storm that we will be following throughout the week. Look for updates right here on the blog and of course on the air.

Rainfall amounts (ending at 7 a.m. Friday)

Rainfall amounts from around the area through 7 a.m. Friday

Winfield:     0.93"
Medicine Lodge:     0.80"
Hutch:     0.75"
Wichita:     0.54"
Salina:     0.54"
Jabara Airport:     0.53"
Pratt:     0.47"
Dodge City:     0.47"
Liberal:     0.42"
Elkhart:     0.23"
Russell:     0.19"
Garden City:     Trace
Goodland:     0.00"