Severe weather chances, rain checkup, and it's all about timing!

If you're like me, you are wondering what happened to the month of March. This month was another very dry month. I often wonder how different it will feel and look around here if we ever get back to a steady pattern of rainfall.

Here is the rainfall check for March and for the year.

Wichita: 0.28" / 2.31" below normal  /  2.55" below for 2015
Dodge City: 0.29" / 1.24" below normal  /  1.20" below for 2015
Goodland: 0.11" / 1.24" below normal  /  0.70" below for 2015
Salina: 0.05" / 2.15" below normal  /  2.51" below for 2015

This next cold front coming in tomorrow (Wednesday) will bring some severe storms back to Kansas and Nebraska. The storms will probably start in Nebraska and then move southeast into Kansas closer to sunset. Main threat will be some hail and wind.

Why is it so hard for us to get rain in Kansas? Everything has to come together just right (much like a baking recipe can be messed up if you don't follow it correctly)

Early Wednesday

Wednesday evening

Early Thursday

First, look at the higher humidity that is pushing north into Kansas early Wednesday. Dew point temperatures (measure of the moisture in the air) will climb into the 55-65 range to begin the day. As the cold front moves in Wednesday evening, look at what is happening to the moisture... it's getting shoved east. And when the front is in central Kansas at 3 a.m. Thursday, the moisture is almost entirely over the Flint Hills. This is a real bummer to say the least.

Deep storm in the west will produce some snow in Colorado and cooler weather for Kansas

Another deep low pressure in the west offers up some hope for wet weather middle of next week

We can say the pattern will remain active through the next 8-10 days, but until we get some of the deeper, Gulf moisture to move farther west, we just won't see the soaking rains. It's frustrating... but let's keep watching the extended forecast for signs of hope.

Storm chances return & something special late in the week

We had some really nice weather over the weekend. March is notorious for having some wild storms, but this year, we were pretty lucky to dodge any major severe weather episodes AND winter storms.

I know rain would sure make a lot of people happy, and once again this week, there are chances in the forecast. The focus will be on Wednesday evening and into the night as yet another cold front crosses the Plains. This looks like our next chance for some severe storms, with hail and wind being the primary threats. Once storms take off, there should be a southeast drift to them as the front continues it's southward push. We will update this as time draws closer.

April 1st will feel more like June with afternoon highs in record territory by Wednesday.

There is another lunar eclipse coming up Saturday. We had two of them last year that were just spectacular and completely visible here in Kansas. Kansas isn't in the right spot to see the entire eclipse Saturday. The moon will set before the total eclipse ends. Here is a quick timeline:

Partial Eclipse begins: 5:15 a.m.

Total Eclipse begins: 6:57 a.m.

Total Eclipse ends: 7:02 a.m.

Partial Eclipse ends: 8:44 a.m. (moon already below horizon)

2015 Severe Weather Round 1

Kelly Kemnitz - Wichita

8 miles SE of Stillwater, OK

Wednesday was just a taste of what's to come as we move through the spring months in Kansas. At the end of last week, I did a blog entry regarding the slow start to storm season. But as we saw yesterday, things can escalate very quickly with just the right combination of moisture, wind, and a low pressure system.

Tornado near Sand Springs - courtesy Jeff Piotrowski

Unfortunately, there was loss of life near Sand Springs, OK. The tornado will likely get a rating today when the damage assessment crews get a chance to comb through the debris. There was another tornado that touched down in Moore, OK too. It wasn't down very long, but there were some tremendous power flashes and some vehicles that were badly damaged. I have no idea why Moore, OK is such a magnet for severe storms and tornadoes. It doesn't seem fair how much they've been through in the last 10 years.

The severe weather risk basically ends for the remainder of the week. The pattern is going to change again and we will get back to some quiet weather heading into the weekend. We will have to watch for a storm to move in from the southwest during the middle of next week. Right now, the forecast models keep most of the rain and storms to our south in Oklahoma and Texas, but there's still plenty of time for things to change. Sure would be nice to get some more rain into Kansas.

Rain, hail, thunderstorms & a severe threat Wednesday

Some might say that spring is officially here now that we've had our first thunderstorms in Kansas. Granted, the rain that fell Monday night didn't amount to much, but just seeing the lightning and hearing thunder was music to many ears. Storms on Tuesday produced some hail near Kansas City and down through western Missouri. How about a bowl full of popcorn, eh, I mean hail?

courtesy KMBC (hail from western Missouri)

New data came in late Tuesday evening and it suggests that our chances for rain and isolated storms will be better than what was earlier forecast. A cold front will slide through the state Wednesday and as it encounters some higher humidity, storms will begin developing during the afternoon and evening hours. The better ingredients for severe weather are still coming together in Oklahoma and western Arkansas, but small hail is possible over south central and southeast Kansas.

Rain showers west and north. T-storms trying to develop south

Heavier rainfall expected in southeast Kansas Wednesday evening

Main threat for severe weather will be in eastern Oklahoma

Any rain showers that develop in western and northern Kansas will be very light, but it's moisture nonetheless. Late Wednesday night, the rain will end statewide as the storm pulls away.

Our chances for widespread moisture don't look so good Friday - early next week. But we could be in for some more stormy weather in the middle of next week. Stay tuned for that.

Shocker fans in Cleveland getting ready for the big game Thursday are in for some cold weather. There is a chance for snow (believe it or not) Friday. Probably won't be very much, but in late March, it's not that uncommon to still find some snow in areas to the north and east of Kansas. Will be exciting to see how the Shockers do tomorrow.

Storm chances are back

Spring is finally here and we are coming off of a pretty nice weekend for most of the state. We are seeing a return of severe drought now to southwest Kansas. The rainfall last week won't be enough to keep the drought from expanding. As we've said before, it will take a steady diet of rainfall to get things to improve.

We do have a chance to see some of our first thunderstorms in Kansas coming up Monday night. It doesn't appear that severe weather will be a big concern, but given the setup, some hail will be possible with stronger storms that do develop.

Areas to the east of the warm front have the best chance for storms Monday night

Tuesday will bring a much better chance for severe storms to Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, and Arkansas. Hail and wind will once again be the primary threats. Some of the same areas will be in the focus for storms again Wednesday.

Something to watch at the end of the week will be some colder air sliding south across the central and northern Plains. Gardeners beware, temperatures will likely fall below freezing for Friday and Saturday morning. There is a chance for some light snow in western Kansas.

Plenty to keep an eye on this week for sure.

Slow start to storm season ... what's next?

Moore, OK tornado - May 20, 2013

Here we are in the second half of March and not only has it been very dry lately, but we haven't had any thunderstorms at all. And it's not just here in Kansas, but around much of the country. Could it be that we just haven't warmed up enough yet? Is it El Nino? Or will this just be one of those years where we don't have many severe storms?

Nobody really knows the exact reason, but we definitely know that the right ingredients have not come together yet. Even though we have had some warmer days in Kansas recently, the humidity has been very low (which is part of the reason for extreme fire danger this week)

Storm Prediction Center from Norman, OK is in charge of issuing all of the severe thunderstorm and tornado watches for the entire country. They have only issued 4 tornado watches this year (and none of them have been in March) This is less than 10% of the typical number of 52 watches issued by this point in March.

But what does a slow start to storm season say about the rest of the spring? There's no connection between the two. In fact, consider these stats released from the National Weather Service office from Norman, OK this week.
March 21st - latest date for a severe thunderstorm watch
April 17th - latest date for a tornado warning

The March 21st date happened in the year 1991, which also happened to be the year of the Andover tornado. The April 17th date was from the year 2013. That was the year a tornado was closing in on Eisenhower National (then Mid-Continent Airport). The violent tornadoes that hit Moore/Newcastle and El Reno all happened in 2013.

Viola/Clearwater tornado May 19, 2013

We don't know how bad the storm season will be. But if we have just one tornado and that one hits you or your family, it's a bad year.

El Reno, OK tornado May 2013

Spring storms return to the forecast

Spring officially begins Friday at 5:45 P.M. and just 2 days later, we will get our first chance for thunderstorms in Kansas. Sometimes, it's amazing how Mother Nature follows the calendar (and other times, she is WAY off the mark)

We are going to have some beautiful weather Friday, Saturday, and most of Sunday. Our temperatures are expected to warm back into the 60s and 70s and we won't have much wind to worry about for the weekend. Forecast models are hinting at storms developing Sunday in northern Kansas after 5 or 6 p.m. They will have a tendency to move southeast into the night. It doesn't appear severe weather is going to be a big problem, but considering the setup and time of year, it certainly can't be ruled out. I would expect a low threat of some wind and hail.

Just a reminder that with the return of severe weather season, there is a new category to tell you about in the storm outlook. In the past, we've worked with slight, moderate, and high. Starting this year, there will be slight, enhanced, moderate, and high. What does all of this mean? I think the easiest way to explain the new outlooks is to think of the categories in terms of storm coverage. For example:

Slight - very isolated

Enhanced - scattered

Moderate - widespread

High - outbreak

Usually, when you see moderate or high, there is a very strong likelihood of damaging storms and tornadoes. 

In tomorrow's blog, does a slow start to severe weather season mean anything for the rest of the spring season? We will look at some stats Friday!

Weather bracketology - gearing up!

Kansas will get all 4 in just the next 24 hours!

There's so much attention and focus on basketball this week. The possibility of a KU/WSU meeting is exciting and I know everyone will be chatting about it for the rest of the week. While you take time to fill out a bracket and get ready for the games, we will be tracking not one, but two different systems that will have an impact on Kansas weather.

The first will move through Wednesday and bring some rain showers to south central and eastern Kansas. Yesterday, we posted a graphic showing how much rain could fall in the middle of the week, and our thinking hasn't changed at all. Because the system is weakening as it approaches Kansas AND it's mainly tracking southeast of us, the best we can hope for is about a tenth to two-tenths of an inch (barely enough to settle the dust)

Forecast Rainfall from Wednesday a.m. - 7 a.m. Friday

By Thursday, the second storm system of the week will be approaching from the west and it will bring another round of moisture. Latest forecast models are boosting the amount of rain that could fall in southwest Kansas (potentially up to .50"). It's not a very strong system, but hopefully moving slow enough to provide some nice rains.

Melting snow and recent moisture has contributed to flooding on the Ohio River near Cincinnati. It's the highest the river has been in about 18 years, and although the water is starting to go down, it will likely remain above flood stage for most of the week. It crested at about 57 feet. Sure would be nice to spread some of that water over a parched Kansas. 

Spring break heat, wind, and maybe... some rain

Most students are on spring break this week, but it probably feels like the start of summer with highs getting into the 80s. Some records will be tied or broken by the end of the day. The average high right now is 58, and parts of the state will be almost 30 degrees warmer than that. Whew. Kick on the fan!

The fire danger continues to be a concern with such dry conditions. Low humidity and strong winds aren't helping the situation. Most of the state will be under "Red Flag Warnings" Monday afternoon and outdoor burning should be avoided.

Now to the good news! There are some rain chances in our forecast for this week. There is a weak storm tracking from Mexico and should be close enough Wednesday to spread some moisture over south central and southeast Kansas. It doesn't look like it will be more than .25", but at this point, you have to take whatever you can get. The next storm system will be coming in Thursday and looks to deliver some rainfall to southwest Kansas. It also looks to be very weak and won't produce any significant moisture.

We will focus on the late week rain chances coming up tomorrow. These won't be drought busting rains, but we have to start somewhere, right?

Moisture checkup

Officially, spring begins in just over a week, but the way things are going (and looking), winter is over. I don't see any major cold snaps on the horizon, although we may see some cooler weather just after St. Patrick's Day. I'm posting some snowfall numbers to show how far above or below normal we were this winter. Our first measurable snowfall came in November just before Thanksgiving, so this data collection begins November 1st and runs through today. Dodge City and Wichita had above normal snowfall for the winter, but the same can't be said for Goodland.

Snowfall amounts from November 1 - today

2015 rainfall numbers

2015 rainfall numbers

Where do we stand on moisture for 2015 to date? It's not very encouraging so far, but remember, we are just coming into our wet season around here. Try not to get discouraged. The weather pattern we are seeing now is one that showed up back in January when we had 15 days in a row of unseasonably mild weather. We ended up getting a few rain showers during that time, but most of that warm spell was dry.

The patterns will change again, but we will just have to be patient. Right now, the next slight chance for some moisture will be coming late next week. It doesn't look like a strong storm system, and the way it's approaching Kansas may not be favorable for widespread rains. But let's hope we get something out of it. We will keep you posted!

March storms - El Nino update

courtesy Gary Schmitt - June 2014

If you've lived in Kansas for a long time, you know this can be a crazy month with tornadoes on one side of the state and a blizzard on the other. March storms can be really ferocious, but so far, things are looking quiet heading through the middle of the month.

One storm is passing us by to the south today and tomorrow. The storm track has been fairly active south of Kansas this winter. The Dallas/Fort Worth areas has had several episodes of wintry weather that caused flight delays and cancellations. This latest round of moisture is all liquid. Look at the forecast for rainfall across southeast Oklahoma, Texas, and Arkansas. Sure would be nice to latch on to some of that moisture, but we will have to keep waiting.

We did get an El Nino update last week. We continue to see weak El Nino conditions in the Pacific, and although its influence on the overall weather pattern may be minimal, it's still a contributing factor as we head through spring and early summer. The water temperatures are about +.5(degree Celsius) warmer than normal (and it's been that way for several months in a row)

Does a weak El Nino contribute to more severe thunderstorms in the spring/early summer? The last weak El Nino we had was back in 2006-07. There were 91 tornadoes in 2006 and 140 in 2007 (so near to above normal on the tornado count) We also had a weak El Nino in 2004-05, and in those years, we had over 100 tornadoes recorded in each respective year. But every situation is a little different, and that's why we can't draw any conclusions just yet.

When it comes to tornado safety... DUCK

I can get several 1st, 2nd, and 3rd graders to laugh when I put up this picture in my weather presentation:

When it comes to tornado safety, remember DUCK because it's an easy way to recall the basics of protecting yourself.

D - Downstairs to the basement or cellar
U - Under something that will protect you from something that could fall from above (i.e. work bench, computer desk, stairwell, mattress)
C - Cover your head with pillows and blankets
K - Keep away from windows and keep in shelter until the storm has passed

One of the things I stress to kids is that they should always remember what is directly above them in the house. You never want to be under a heavy object that could fall through the floor. And remember to put on a pair of shoes. In the event of damage, you don't want to emerge from your shelter with no protection for your feet. Living in Kansas, most of us prepare for the worst and hope that we never have to go through it.

Sometimes you'll hear us recommend putting as many walls between you and the tornado as possible, and it's to prevent debris from penetrating exterior walls and injuring you. Look at this picture of a piece of lumber basically becoming a missile and shooting through the outer wall. And many of us have seen pictures of straw or grass stuck in a tree after a tornado. Sometimes, the most bizarre things happen during nature's worst storms, and we just want you to be prepared.