Slow start to storm season ... what's next?

Moore, OK tornado - May 20, 2013

Here we are in the second half of March and not only has it been very dry lately, but we haven't had any thunderstorms at all. And it's not just here in Kansas, but around much of the country. Could it be that we just haven't warmed up enough yet? Is it El Nino? Or will this just be one of those years where we don't have many severe storms?

Nobody really knows the exact reason, but we definitely know that the right ingredients have not come together yet. Even though we have had some warmer days in Kansas recently, the humidity has been very low (which is part of the reason for extreme fire danger this week)

Storm Prediction Center from Norman, OK is in charge of issuing all of the severe thunderstorm and tornado watches for the entire country. They have only issued 4 tornado watches this year (and none of them have been in March) This is less than 10% of the typical number of 52 watches issued by this point in March.

But what does a slow start to storm season say about the rest of the spring? There's no connection between the two. In fact, consider these stats released from the National Weather Service office from Norman, OK this week.
March 21st - latest date for a severe thunderstorm watch
April 17th - latest date for a tornado warning

The March 21st date happened in the year 1991, which also happened to be the year of the Andover tornado. The April 17th date was from the year 2013. That was the year a tornado was closing in on Eisenhower National (then Mid-Continent Airport). The violent tornadoes that hit Moore/Newcastle and El Reno all happened in 2013.

Viola/Clearwater tornado May 19, 2013

We don't know how bad the storm season will be. But if we have just one tornado and that one hits you or your family, it's a bad year.

El Reno, OK tornado May 2013