Rainfall checkup around the state

photo courtesy of Susan Carter - Thursday - shelf cloud over Wichita

As the month of July comes to a close, take a look at the numbers. Wichita had it's 6th wettest July on record, but other areas of the state are a little below average on moisture for the month. However, many areas are still way ahead for the year, due in part to the very wet month of May that we had around the state. The long range forecast is calling for some rain to move in Monday night/Tuesday of next week, followed by a cool down and more rain that should arrive at the end of next week. 

Blue moon Friday & another cool down is possible soon

Don't forget about the blue moon coming up Friday. The second full moon in a calendar month is considered "blue", even though it has nothing to do with the color. The second new moon in a month is called a "black" moon (in case that ever comes up in a trivia show)

What a noisy morning around south central Kansas. Tons of lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds maybe got some of you out of bed early. The peak wind for Wichita was 40 mph, but could have been higher in other places. What many are talking about are the loud claps of thunder. A huge shelf cloud moved over the city and with the sun just coming up, it made for a beautiful setting. We will have some rainfall amounts on the air later today and on the blog Friday.

Courtesy Brandon Salisbury - Wichita

Courtesy James - El Dorado

courtesy Gary Villines - Bel Aire

One thing that has stood out to me this summer is how many ups and downs we continue to have in temperatures. Just when it starts to get extremely hot, another change takes place. The pattern has been pretty active for July. The end result for Kansas is much needed rain and shots of cooler weather from the north.

Looking at next week, the pattern will shift again with some much cooler air coming down across the northern Plains and the upper Midwest. This may not be a big rain producing pattern for us, and there's even some question as to how much we will cool down, but let's see how things set up in the next few days. Hard to believe we are moving into August and school will be starting in just a few weeks. Time sure flies!

Tornadoes in Canada - some changes for Kansas

courtesy Ricky Forbes - Canada

Monday was a very active day for the northern Plains and into Canada. It's not a huge surprise because severe season tends to shift north during the summer months. The stronger branch of the jet stream tracks across the US/Canada border and that's where the more intense storms develop. Tornadoes were touching down in Manitoba Monday evening. They were reported to be in sparsely populated areas, and no major damage or injuries were reported. A little crazy to see such large tornadoes so far north, but proof that they do happen even outside of Tornado Alley.

We continue to be under the influence of high pressure aloft. Its allowed the temperatures to stay hot and keep most of the heavier rain west and north. The plume of monsoon moisture has been flowing into western and northern Kansas, resulting in more rainfall for those areas. A cold front stalling over Oklahoma into Wednesday/Thursday will bring the chances for storms a little farther south through Thursday, but after that, we will be returning to some hotter/drier weather.

Shifting summer pattern & possibility for more rains

courtesy Rob Cotter - Goodland (taken Sunday evening)

A very typical, summer pattern continues over much of the central Plains. We do have some minor changes expected during the middle of the week, but it's nothing unusual. The large high pressure system that has been over the central and southern US has been pulling monsoon moisture up into Kansas. That has led to occasional rounds of rain and storms. It look like the high pressure won't go away completely, but it will get displaced to the west later this week. That's not good news for the fire situation across the West, but it will allow for some cooler air to settle over Kansas Wednesday/Thursday.

We will also get a chance for rain this week too. I'm posting two images from the different forecast models that we have been looking at. The top image is from the European model, while the bottom one is from an American model. They have some similarities, but I would expect that most of us will get rainfall amounts under .50" (unless you are under a very heavy downpour)

El Nino is getting stronger - could be the strongest since 1997

Meteorologists are always faced with the difficult question: What will the summer/spring/fall/winter be like? As I've mentioned before, long range forecasting is very hard to say the least. There are so many variables to consider. For example, the last few years, some recent research is suggesting that snow cover in Siberia may have some indications on how cold our winters will be across the United States. Other variables include El Nino/La Nina.

Sea surface temperatures from June 21-July 18

Let me just remind you what El Nino and La Nina mean. El Nino is the unseasonably warm water near the equator, just off the west coast of South America. La Nina is just the opposite. For the last year or so, we've been waiting and watching for El Nino to show up. Finally, late last fall/early this spring, it started to show up, but in a weak state. It's been very elusive. Now, the forecast models continue to show El Nino getting stronger and may actually end up being the strongest since 1997.

So why don't we just go back and look at the weather we had in 1997/98 and make a forecast for the upcoming winter? It just isn't that easy because every El Nino event is a little different than the one before. There are tendencies for the weather pattern to behave certain ways during these different phenomenons, but there's so much more going on that has to be considered.

The last major El Nino was 1997/98 and in that winter, take a look:
Wichita snowfall: 20.5"
Dodge City snowfall: 37.9"
Goodland snowfall: 37.7"

Goodland had the snowiest October ever recorded with 19.7" in that one month alone. 

The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) numbers that winter went to 2.3 degree Celsius (which indicates a very strong El Nino). Some of the forecasts projections are showing at least 2.0 degree Celsius for this winter, maybe stronger. So there is a very high chance (better than 90%) that we will have a strong El Nino going into winter this year and it should be fairly strong into spring of 2016.

A typical El Nino winter around Kansas is usually wetter than normal with near to slightly above normal temperatures. However, as I stated earlier, every event is different.

This is something we will be bringing up from time to time as we start watching and waiting for the summer patterns to fade and signs of fall that begin showing up in another 60 days. Fall can be a very exciting time watching the weather patterns change.

BIG rains and more chances to come

Photo courtesy Dennis Thompson (near Conway Springs)

Slow moving storms Monday night and early this morning led to some HUGE rainfall totals. Check out these 24 hour numbers:

Medicine Lodge: 5.25"

Chautauqua: 4.87"

Longton: 2.32" (Elk county)

Winfield: 0.37'

Hutch: 0.06"

There is a stalled front over northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas, so the chance for showers and storms will continue along the state line, and then gradually shift north into Tuesday night. It's unlikely that severe storms will be a problem, but flooding is something that could cause some concerns through the next few days.

Wednesday morning will bring a good chance for scattered showers and storms to central and eastern Kansas. Eventually, as the warm front continues to push north, the rain chances will fade as the heat intensifies throughout the region. We will notice hotter temperatures by Thursday and Friday.

Southern California flooding & weather pattern changes around Kansas

Big rainfall in southern California has caused some serious problems with flooding. Right in the middle of what is considered the dry season, they are getting some 1-2 inch rains and although it doesn't sound like much, it came down fast enough to wash away this section of I-10. This pickup was in the wrong place at the wrong time and a man was trapped for awhile. Remnants of Dolores continues to push moisture up into southern California and there will likely be heavy rains around Las Vegas too. Flooding is never good, but they need the rain in those drought stricken locations. 

The weather pattern around here will allow for spotty rain and storms through Wednesday. Several systems tracking across the northern Plains have flattened the high pressure system over Texas. That's allowing for the temperatures to cool down, but only slightly. And it won't last for too long. 

Just in time for the end of the week and into the weekend, the center of the high pressure will be working it's way back over Kansas and the central US. As it does so, our temperatures will go back to near 100 with limited rainfall opportunities coming up for Kansas. Summer is far from over.

What to look for in the western sky this week & heat relief in sight

Later this week, Venus will shine just atop the moon about 30 minutes after sunset. Assuming we don't have any significant cloud cover, should be interesting to see. 

Our weather pattern has allowed for some rain in western and northern Kansas throughout the week. Monsoon moisture has been caught in some westerly winds and carried out over Kansas, resulting in showers and storms for mainly western and northern areas of the state. Rainfall has been heavy for some.

Early next week, the high pressure system will be weakening and sliding back to the west. The position of the high is key to rain chances AND the next potential cooldown. Saturday looks extremely hot with highs back above 100 for much of the state. But by Sunday afternoon, a front will be moving through Kansas, dropping temperatures and increasing the chances for scattered showers and storms around the state.

A storm system will approach heading into Tuesday, which should bring a good chance for rain to the area. Temperatures will cool back into the 80s and low 90 for a few days. I'm not expecting it to last more than about 2 or 3 days, and then the heat will be building back across the area.

Summertime pattern - how long will it go?

There will be no shortage of hot weather this week, so be sure to take it easy. Even though the temperatures may drop a few degrees (after Monday) it will still be quite hot for much of the week. We don't have any significant change coming this week where highs will fall back into the 70s and 80s (like last week) The upper level winds are so weak that we can't expect any big change in the weather to happen fast. 

The big high pressure that is responsible for the excessive heat will move from Amarillo to eastern Texas by Tuesday/Wednesday. As that happens, there is some monsoon moisture that will get pulled into western and northern Kansas, which should allow for some rain to return to the area Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday. Although mainly scattered, there should be some chances for moisture in parts of the state that could definitely use it.

We will be looking at the possibility of some cooler weather with other chances for rain coming up at the start of next week (July 20/21)

Rainfall reports; more coming - and heat is looming once again

courtesy Julie Johnson (31st & Meridian)

courtesy Emily Kester (30th & Martinson)

24 Hour Rainfall reports (as of 7 a.m. Tuesday)

Jabara Airport: 4.21"

Topeka: 4.14"

Wichita: 3.52"

Emporia: 2.34"

Winfield: 1.69"

Newton: 1.40"

Medicine Lodge: 0.85"

Concordia: 0.40"

Hutch: 0.25"

Salina: 0.22"

Great Bend: 0.07"

The next round of rainfall will target south central and southeast Kansas into Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Mondays cold front has stalled out and will be coming back north in the next few days. At it moves back toward Kansas, we will get some more rain.

Western Kansas didn't get much rain and there's even been some problem with smoke coming south from the Canadian fires. Showers and storms are expected to develop and move out of eastern Colorado into western Kansas Wednesday evening/night. Although severe storms are not expected, there could be some pockets of heavier rainfall.

Get ready for the pattern shift at the end of the week. The big dome of high pressure will be shutting the Gulf of Mexico moisture down and allowing the heat to expand over the area. It won't take long to turn up the temperatures. On Friday, most of the area will be back into the 90s with 100s possible by Saturday and Sunday. Oh boy! 

Rain chances return & July heat on hold

Hope everyone had a nice and safe 4th of July. Maybe it didn't feel like a holiday weekend since the actual holiday itself fell on a Saturday. The weather wasn't half bad with high temperatures staying out of the 100s (on Saturday) and no major storms. You don't always get that in early July.

Rainfall forecast from Monday-Tuesday 4 p.m.

Forecast highs into Tuesday afternoon

This new week will start off stormy for some with much needed moisture on the way. After all of the wet weather in May, several locations are now only an inch or so above normal on moisture for the year. So it wouldn't hurt to get another round of rain. We have a slow moving cold front that will not only bring a chance for storms, but also drop the temperatures about 20-25 degrees into Tuesday. The slow moving nature of the front will mean a chance for some heavy rainfall over southern Kansas Monday night.

Overall, the pattern this week will favor smaller storm systems to move out of the Rockies and into Kansas. We have another one coming Wednesday night/Thursday, and a second round of moisture should cross the area. Everyone will have a chance for rain, but the forecast models show the heaviest ending up in western Kansas.

as of Sunday afternoon

Although the temperatures are forecast to heat up to near 100 into next weekend (July 10/11), I still do not see a prolonged period of hot weather (triple digit highs) coming up for Kansas. That might just be music to your ears.

Tornadoes, smoke, & rain chances

courtesy KSHB -Kansas City

Welcome to Thursday and I know many of you are excited for the holiday weekend. Last night was definitely a little on the stormy side for some in the plains. We watched a couple of tornadoes touchdown in the KC area with some minor damage reported. The picture posted here is a screen grab courtesy of KSHB where their chopper captured some power flashes from a brief tornado that touched down near Lees Summit. July isn't one of the bigger tornado months around this area, but they still happen even though the main severe weather area shifts farther north.

Storms that fired up in south central Kansas moved down into northern Oklahoma, but because the clouds grow 50-60,000 feet into the air, they can be seen from many miles away. Patti Norman sent this picture from Lyons, which would be just over 100 miles from where the storms were when the picture was taken.

Earlier this week on the evening newscast, we were showcasing the smoke that was coming down from Canada from hundreds of wildfires that have been burning for awhile. The smoke was getting high enough to get caught in the jet stream winds, which then carried it southeast through the Dakotas, Iowa, and Missouri. If you noticed the white color in the sky or saw some red color around the moon, most likely it was influenced by the smoke. When it gets high enough into the air to get caught in the jet stream, it's not much of a concern to our breathing down here on the ground.

Heading toward the holiday weekend, we are expecting some showers and storms. The chances for today and tomorrow are going to be very hit and miss. Most areas will probably get missed. We are watching Saturday night and again Sunday night for some storms that may roll out of Nebraska and clip parts of central and eastern Kansas during the weekend. Chances for rain look MUCH better early next week with a front that will be crossing Kansas. Details to come.