El Nino is getting stronger - could be the strongest since 1997

Meteorologists are always faced with the difficult question: What will the summer/spring/fall/winter be like? As I've mentioned before, long range forecasting is very hard to say the least. There are so many variables to consider. For example, the last few years, some recent research is suggesting that snow cover in Siberia may have some indications on how cold our winters will be across the United States. Other variables include El Nino/La Nina.

Sea surface temperatures from June 21-July 18

Let me just remind you what El Nino and La Nina mean. El Nino is the unseasonably warm water near the equator, just off the west coast of South America. La Nina is just the opposite. For the last year or so, we've been waiting and watching for El Nino to show up. Finally, late last fall/early this spring, it started to show up, but in a weak state. It's been very elusive. Now, the forecast models continue to show El Nino getting stronger and may actually end up being the strongest since 1997.

So why don't we just go back and look at the weather we had in 1997/98 and make a forecast for the upcoming winter? It just isn't that easy because every El Nino event is a little different than the one before. There are tendencies for the weather pattern to behave certain ways during these different phenomenons, but there's so much more going on that has to be considered.

The last major El Nino was 1997/98 and in that winter, take a look:
Wichita snowfall: 20.5"
Dodge City snowfall: 37.9"
Goodland snowfall: 37.7"

Goodland had the snowiest October ever recorded with 19.7" in that one month alone. 

The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) numbers that winter went to 2.3 degree Celsius (which indicates a very strong El Nino). Some of the forecasts projections are showing at least 2.0 degree Celsius for this winter, maybe stronger. So there is a very high chance (better than 90%) that we will have a strong El Nino going into winter this year and it should be fairly strong into spring of 2016.

A typical El Nino winter around Kansas is usually wetter than normal with near to slightly above normal temperatures. However, as I stated earlier, every event is different.

This is something we will be bringing up from time to time as we start watching and waiting for the summer patterns to fade and signs of fall that begin showing up in another 60 days. Fall can be a very exciting time watching the weather patterns change.